Huge jump in network hash power

[marcus_of_augustus]

from 258 GHash/s to 360ish Hash/s.

anybody know what's up? A  cluster waiting for the difficulty jump before coming on-line or something else?

[Grinder]

It's a combination of the fact that mining with high end cards is currently very profitable, which has made a lot of people buy more GPUs, and the Slashdot effect.

[marcus_of_augustus]

It's a combination of the fact that mining with high end cards is currently very profitable, which has made a lot of people buy more GPUs, and the Slashdot effect.

Yeah, but in the space of 6 hours some slashdotters bought on-line another 100 HD 5970's?

Something big (bitcoin-wise) happened.

[mpkomara]

network power is estimated based off of blocks generated since the last change in difficulty.  You won't get a very accurate number for a couple days after difficulty switches.

[marcus_of_augustus]

Thanks, that explains a lot....

[Binford 6100]

... some slashdotters bought on-line another 100 HD 5970's?

i briefly mentioned bitcoin to colleagues a week ago (they do not read slashdot) and today they were discussing who's cellar will host their mining pc (setting up a mining coop, they are mid 40ties, never heard of bitcoin before afaik)

[Pieter Wuille]

network power is estimated based off of blocks generated since the last change in difficulty.  You won't get a very accurate number for a couple days after difficulty switches.

Still, there has really been a sudden increase:



(this graph is generated from the precise timings blocks were found, and not just the number of blocks since difficulty increase)

[Nefario]

NSA!!!

[asdf]

network power is estimated based off of blocks generated since the last change in difficulty.  You won't get a very accurate number for a couple days after difficulty switches.

Still, there has really been a sudden increase:
(graph here)

Just looks like exponential growth to me.

Exponential growth (including exponential decay) occurs when the growth rate of a mathematical function is proportional to the function's current value.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_growth

the more people that know about bitcoin, the more people will find out about bitcoin => exponential growth. expect more.

[Raulo]

Still, there has really been a sudden increase:

It's not unprecedented. There were >40% jumps last year frequently. Of course it was easier back then where a single 5970 meant a few percent of the global hashspeed but today as long as everybody increases its mining capacity by 40%, we have such a jump. Or everybody keeps the same but there are 40% more miners. Or a little of both.

Mining was extremely profitable recently, the $/hash was at the November level where the jumps were large.
http://bitcoin.atspace.com/income.png
http://bitcoin.atspace.com/income.html

There will still be significant jumps in difficulty as long as mining is so profitable. A crash in BTC/$ market can only stop it short term. If the BTC price stays the same, we will probably see a few 30%-ish increases in difficulty and it will gradually slow to 10-20% increases like in January.

edit: proper page linked

[Pieter Wuille]

network power is estimated based off of blocks generated since the last change in difficulty.  You won't get a very accurate number for a couple days after difficulty switches.

Still, there has really been a sudden increase:
(graph here)

Just looks like exponential growth to me.

Absolutely, it is exponential growth. But nonetheless there was a sudden (though not very large) increase recently.

Originally i made the graphs on an exponential scale but people seem to like the linear ones more (maybe they look more dramatic?):

[gusti]

Does anybody have a graphic showing correlation between BTC Market Price vs. Difficult ?

[Raulo]

Does anybody have a graphic showing correlation between BTC Market Price vs. Difficult ?

The graph presented above
http://bitcoin.atspace.com/income.png
http://bitcoin.atspace.com/income.html
shows exactly the correlation between BTC price and difficulty but in more tangible units. It's BTC price divided by difficulty times a factor for converting it into dollars per 100MH/s.

[gusti]

Does anybody have a graphic showing correlation between BTC Market Price vs. Difficult ?

The graph presented above
http://bitcoin.atspace.com/income.png
shows exactly the correlation between BTC price and difficulty but in more tangible units. It's BTC price divided by difficulty times a factor for converting it into dollars per 100MH/s.

Your link is redirecting to another webpage.

[ribuck]

The high returns last year are a bit misleading, because most people were mining with CPUs and it was not possible to achieve anything near 100 MHash/s.

[Raulo]

Here is a full page that downloads properly:
http://bitcoin.atspace.com/income.html

[Raulo]

The high returns last year are a bit misleading, because most people were mining with CPUs and it was not possible to achieve anything near 100 MHash/s.

Well, yes but the unit is for just today's mining capabilities. One can divide by 100 and get a daily income per 1Mh/s which was achievable back then.

[marcus_of_augustus]

Well if I was going to bring a rack-mounted GPU cluster, or similarly expensive GPU rental, etc, on-line I would schedule delivery, installation timing to have it coming on-stream immediately after a difficulty increase. You get a temporary leg up over the existing competition until the next difficulty increase.

[Raulo]

Well if I was going to bring a rack-mounted GPU cluster, or similarly expensive GPU rental, etc, on-line I would schedule delivery, installation timing to have it coming on-stream immediately after a difficulty increase. You get a temporary leg up over the existing competition until the next difficulty increase.

It does absolutely not make sense timing bringing up capacity online. The most optimal strategy is to mine as soon as possible. A mined block is worth more than the loss resulting from difficulty increase of one's mining in the next round.

[Cryptoman]

The graph presented above
http://bitcoin.atspace.com/income.png
http://bitcoin.atspace.com/income.html
shows exactly the correlation between BTC price and difficulty but in more tangible units. It's BTC price divided by difficulty times a factor for converting it into dollars per 100MH/s.

Hey, this is excellent.  Thanks!