RALLY!

[Vladimir]

You do realise that since inception only during a 2 month period price of 1 BTC was higher than it is now?

(and only for 1 week above 20$)

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[smoothie]

You do realise that since inception only during a 2 month period price of 1 BTC was higher than it is now?

(and only for 1 week above 20$)

Good point

[cheat_2_win]

You do realise that since inception only during a 2 month period price of 1 BTC was higher than it is now?

(and only for 1 week above 20$)

Good point

Bitcoin has been going through multiple bubbles from the beginning and peak prices has remained stable for longer and longer periods.

[Timo Y]

like a media-hype because journalists realize @$30 that bitcoin somehow survived?

This will be really significant, because one of the supposed ways in which you can retroactively define something as a "bubble" (or ponzi) is that, after bursting, it does not recover for a very long time (if at all).  So if Bitcoin were to retake the 30s anytime soon, it would forcibly shut up and discredit anyone using (or who has used) ad-hominems like "bubble" or "ponzi" to attack it.

1 year is a very very long time in bitcoinland.

The current rally isn't a "recovery" from the June 2011 bubble, but a new phenomenon altogether. The fundamentals driving the price are completely different this time, as are the traders.  My guess is that most people who speculated in the June 2011 bubble have long cashed out and forgotten about bitcoin, and are not coming back, at least not until the "late majority" and "laggard" phases.

[hiVe]

You do realise that since inception only during a 2 month period price of 1 BTC was higher than it is now?

(and only for 1 week above 20$)

Truly remarkable indeed. If considered, it really does say a lot about the current situation.

[fcmatt]

like a media-hype because journalists realize @$30 that bitcoin somehow survived?

This will be really significant, because one of the supposed ways in which you can retroactively define something as a "bubble" (or ponzi) is that, after bursting, it does not recover for a very long time (if at all).  So if Bitcoin were to retake the 30s anytime soon, it would forcibly shut up and discredit anyone using (or who has used) ad-hominems like "bubble" or "ponzi" to attack it.

1 year is a very very long time in bitcoinland.

The current rally isn't a "recovery" from the June 2011 bubble, but a new phenomenon altogether. The fundamentals driving the price are completely different this time, as are the traders.  My guess is that most people who speculated in the June 2011 bubble have long cashed out and forgotten about bitcoin, and are not coming back, at least not until the "late majority" and "laggard" phases.

"it is different this time" is often heard during speculative opportunities. stereotypical statement for sure.

quote
A major characteristic of speculative bubbles is the lack of ways to correctly value the underlying asset. Many bubbles, such as the technology bubble of the late 1990s, develop and grow due to giant expectations of the future success or appreciation of the often-misunderstood asset.


"So it is natural to expect that an information cascade is especially likely to develop in response to a genuinely new and different investment opportunity, one that is completely outside the realm of most investors’ personal experience. And this is exactly what is happening when we hear talk about new industries and new technologies that promise to revolutionize the economy (ibid. 48)."
unquote

fun fun fun

quote
"Affirmative messages that build crowd unity are not usually appeals to the intellect of crowd members. Instead they are appeals to emotion, to stereotypes, to dreams or fears. The language of persuasion and crowd solidarity is the language of drama, not science (ibid. 56)."
unquote

[thezerg]

I agree, the market-cap is starting to look bubbly steep:  http://blockchain.info/charts/market-cap

But show me a security (or whatever) that has had 2 bubbles in a row in such a short period.

We haven't forgotten.

This may be why this rally is not exuberant.  Several times now when the asks grew thin the buyers simply slowed buying instead of panicing.  This behavior looks like an "accumulation strategy" by well capitalized professional individuals or institutions to me.  People who want to be sure the bid volume fills in before proceeding...

And the interest is rationally justified by the current economic conditions surrounding fiat currencies.  And by bitcoin's ability to move value rapidly worldwide.  So why aren't other escape hatches (PMs) rallying?  IDK but possibly because they already have.

Having lived thru the internet, housing and BTC bubbles, I think that if we are in a bubble from 5-12 then somebody's put the world on slo-mo (and mute). 

[Timo Y]

"it is different this time" is often heard during speculative opportunities. stereotypical statement for sure.

That's not what I meant.  My point is that the June 2011 event was indeed a bubble and that the current rally is a different event altogether.  I'm not saying that is it not a bubble.  It could well be major bubble #2. Let's see a year from now.

[Piper67]

"it is different this time" is often heard during speculative opportunities. stereotypical statement for sure.

That's not what I meant.  My point is that the June 2011 event was indeed a bubble and that the current rally is a different event altogether.  I'm not saying that is it not a bubble.  It could well be major bubble #2. Let's see a year from now.

Or... the June 2011 bubble wasn't a bubble at all, but simply the kind of drop you would expect when the exchange through which 90% of all BTC transactions are made is compromised.

Everything else about Bitcoin requires a re-think of previous paradigms. Maybe we should start applying the logic to the bubble paradigm as well.

[ElectricMucus]

Everything else about Bitcoin requires a re-think of previous paradigms. Maybe we should start applying the logic to the bubble paradigm as well.

lawl

New Paradigm!!!!111

[byronbb]

[cypherdoc]

Everything else about Bitcoin requires a re-think of previous paradigms. Maybe we should start applying the logic to the bubble paradigm as well.

lawl

New Paradigm!!!!111

well, you're still here aren't you?

[ElectricMucus]

Everything else about Bitcoin requires a re-think of previous paradigms. Maybe we should start applying the logic to the bubble paradigm as well.

lawl

New Paradigm!!!!111

well, you're still here aren't you?

How is that related?

[cypherdoc]

Everything else about Bitcoin requires a re-think of previous paradigms. Maybe we should start applying the logic to the bubble paradigm as well.

lawl

New Paradigm!!!!111

well, you're still here aren't you?

How is that related?

well, since you think it's a bubble, you should go away and come back in 6 mo when it's in the 1's and reassess.  that's what i'd do if i thought i had better things to do.

[thezerg]

"it is different this time" is often heard during speculative opportunities. stereotypical statement for sure.

That's not what I meant.  My point is that the June 2011 event was indeed a bubble and that the current rally is a different event altogether.  I'm not saying that is it not a bubble.  It could well be major bubble #2. Let's see a year from now.

Or... the June 2011 bubble wasn't a bubble at all, but simply the kind of drop you would expect when the exchange through which 90% of all BTC transactions are made is compromised.

Everything else about Bitcoin requires a re-think of previous paradigms. Maybe we should start applying the logic to the bubble paradigm as well.

uhhh... no.  For example, Akamai is an internet bubble company that actually had a great idea (spawned an entire industry in fact), and so has slowly grown successful post-bubble.  http://www.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ%3AAKAM

[ElectricMucus]

Everything else about Bitcoin requires a re-think of previous paradigms. Maybe we should start applying the logic to the bubble paradigm as well.

lawl

New Paradigm!!!!111

well, you're still here aren't you?

How is that related?

well, since you think it's a bubble, you should go away and come back in 6 mo when it's in the 1's and reassess.  that's what i'd do if i thought i had better things to do.

I haven't said that we already are in bubble territory, I mean we could break all time highs or head down after significant resistance occurs.  (That is what I am waiting for)

In order to time my buy in just right I'd have to be around. This time I hopefully wont be as stupid as paying attention to what anybody in this forum says.

[cypherdoc]

Everything else about Bitcoin requires a re-think of previous paradigms. Maybe we should start applying the logic to the bubble paradigm as well.

lawl

New Paradigm!!!!111

well, you're still here aren't you?

How is that related?

well, since you think it's a bubble, you should go away and come back in 6 mo when it's in the 1's and reassess.  that's what i'd do if i thought i had better things to do.

I haven't said that we already are in bubble territory, I mean we could break all time highs or head down after significant resistance occors.

In order to time my buy in just right I'd have to be around. This time I hopefully wont be as stupid as paying attention to what anybody in this forum says.

i actually wish you luck, man.  i mean it.

[ElectricMucus]

Everything else about Bitcoin requires a re-think of previous paradigms. Maybe we should start applying the logic to the bubble paradigm as well.

lawl

New Paradigm!!!!111

well, you're still here aren't you?

How is that related?

well, since you think it's a bubble, you should go away and come back in 6 mo when it's in the 1's and reassess.  that's what i'd do if i thought i had better things to do.

I haven't said that we already are in bubble territory, I mean we could break all time highs or head down after significant resistance occors.

In order to time my buy in just right I'd have to be around. This time I hopefully wont be as stupid as paying attention to what anybody in this forum says.

i actually wish you luck, man.  i mean it.

Thanks, the sad thing is I don't think luck has that much to do with it. If I would have sticked to my strategy instead of "gut feeling", and "this guys chart" I would have had a bitcoinica long position from 2 and exited on 7.something the profits of which safely stored in a paper wallet.

[smoothie]

Everything else about Bitcoin requires a re-think of previous paradigms. Maybe we should start applying the logic to the bubble paradigm as well.

lawl

New Paradigm!!!!111

well, you're still here aren't you?

How is that related?

well, since you think it's a bubble, you should go away and come back in 6 mo when it's in the 1's and reassess.  that's what i'd do if i thought i had better things to do.

I haven't said that we already are in bubble territory, I mean we could break all time highs or head down after significant resistance occors.

In order to time my buy in just right I'd have to be around. This time I hopefully wont be as stupid as paying attention to what anybody in this forum says.

i actually wish you luck, man.  i mean it.

Thanks, the sad thing is I don't think luck has that much to do with it. If I would have sticked to my strategy instead of "gut feeling", and "this guys chart" I would have had a bitcoinica long position from 2 and exited on 7.something the profits of which safely stored in a paper wallet.

your strategy went right out the window the minute you got involved with Bitcoinica.

[Piper67]

Everything else about Bitcoin requires a re-think of previous paradigms. Maybe we should start applying the logic to the bubble paradigm as well.

lawl

New Paradigm!!!!111

well, you're still here aren't you?

How is that related?

well, since you think it's a bubble, you should go away and come back in 6 mo when it's in the 1's and reassess.  that's what i'd do if i thought i had better things to do.

I haven't said that we already are in bubble territory, I mean we could break all time highs or head down after significant resistance occors.

In order to time my buy in just right I'd have to be around. This time I hopefully wont be as stupid as paying attention to what anybody in this forum says.

i actually wish you luck, man.  i mean it.

Thanks, the sad thing is I don't think luck has that much to do with it. If I would have sticked to my strategy instead of "gut feeling", and "this guys chart" I would have had a bitcoinica long position from 2 and exited on 7.something the profits of which safely stored in a paper wallet.

your strategy went right out the window the minute you got involved with Bitcoinica.

Yup, might as well have the "strategy" of winning at the casino roulette.