Why Bitcoin will collapse in price.

[igorr]

@igorr,

Stop posting the same shite graph over and over, it makes you look stupid retarded. Bitcoin is NOT going to collapse any time soon; in fact, I'd wager 10 BTC that it's going to flourish and thrive.

View Screen Capture

This is just chart with Lin regresion indicator,

Why are you angry ?
Where is the problem ?

[Bitcopia]

@igorr,

Stop posting the same shite graph over and over, it makes you look stupid retarded. Bitcoin is NOT going to collapse any time soon; in fact, I'd wager 10 BTC that it's going to flourish and thrive.

View Screen Capture

This is just chart with Lin regresion indicator,

Why are you angry ?
Where is the problem ?

It's typical of any experienced technical analyst to reference a multitude of time frames. But hey, we don't come to the bitcointalk speculation sub-forum to hear from experienced traders do we?

Try zooming out on that chart. You might just find we're actually in a long-term up trend. I don't know. Just a crazy thought.

[STT]

I drew a similar conclusion, there is a valid downtrend in bitcoin prices.     Downtrends are normal, there is no rule they'd last until zero.   At some point there is an event and/or large volume and the trend is broken then we move on

Just one indicator is not significant to draw conclusions.   Try weekly bars for greater accuracy, closing prices give strongest direction over time

/Bitcoin is NOT going to collapse any time soon; in fact, I'd wager 10 BTC

Thats a win/win bet!  

a) Governments have already effectively made it impossible for people

Please tell me who validates governments.    BTC is a valid alternative to dollars and it will be in future, competition is the threat.   If they can hold dollar markets in the USSR despite that government, I think we presume this is not a real good reason for failure of btc now
http://russiapedia.rt.com/of-russian-origin/fartsovshchik/

[arorts]

LOL!!!

Just starting to read this thread.....

"Death penalty for mining???" Hahahahaha. Seriously dude, you need to stop watching so much TV crap. Well, maybe if you are North Korean we understand why you shd be worried about it.

Merchants are increasingly adopting bitcoin and there's a huge hole Grand Canyon size in your points regarding merchants: the tipping point comes when merchants start paying other merchants with bitcoin. So twofold effect: merchants are driving most of the adoption and the value chain bitcoin integration will further reduce the need to cash out to dollars.

What we mostly need is a consumer-driven killer app but they are already some initial bridges with fiat: bitcoin-enabled debit cards.

[UnitedColors]

I drew a similar conclusion, there is a valid downtrend in bitcoin prices.     Downtrends are normal, there is no rule they'd last until zero.   At some point there is an event and/or large volume and the trend is broken then we move on

Just one indicator is not significant to draw conclusions.   Try weekly bars for greater accuracy, closing prices give strongest direction over time

/Bitcoin is NOT going to collapse any time soon; in fact, I'd wager 10 BTC

Thats a win/win bet!  

a) Governments have already effectively made it impossible for people

Please tell me who validates governments.    BTC is a valid alternative to dollars and it will be in future, competition is the threat.   If they can hold dollar markets in the USSR despite that government, I think we presume this is not a real good reason for failure of btc now
http://russiapedia.rt.com/of-russian-origin/fartsovshchik/

Good point. Trend can anytime change at all and people used to see btc's growing they are gonna used to its falling price, IMHO.

As for the Govern, I think, they can't destroy it as it is not national financial instrument but international one and no need to remind how difficult to make countries to unite for one purpose as everyone wants to make benefits from anything and has diff points on view, especially about financial development.

[pabpete]

Can anyone tell me why a safer secure money will not be accepted? I don't think these points take into consideration the huge benefits that come along with this currency. "It's a bubble, it won't last" . I believe that bitcoin can function as a currency, the government just wants to know how to control it before they stop "taxing" it. But once they do that taxes will be imposed regardless.

[yenom]

Can anyone tell me why a safer secure money will not be accepted? <snip>

I think it will take longer than most people on here would like to believe. Most people, your average Joe on the street, won't give two shits about bitcoin. I would bet you that if you stood on the street in a typical town with a paper wallet containing 1 BTC you would have trouble giving it away for free. Mark Dice had trouble giving away a solid 1oz gold coin FFS (search youtube for Mark Dice Free Gold Coin). People are stupid.

The smart people will lead the way, but it will take many years. The masses will follow later, maybe in ten years or so, possibly longer, depends on when the world fiat currencies collapse, which will likely be within ten years anyway, so who knows...

Having said all that I think bitcoin will land on the moon some day.

[arielbit]

skipped a few pages...something you can send anywhere in the world that is fast,secured,cheap,portable,convenient. Something people can gamble/invest/trade on exchanges like stocks and currency but better because you are your own investment company no middle person/s handling your asset/money(bitcoins)...I also think it is a store of value..many average or poor people cannot buy gold, silver and jewelry to store their wealth, even if you see gold or silver many people can be deceived by fake precious metals while crypto currency cannot be faked..bitcoin is a technological revolution like the printing press(the powerful church can't stop it).

[StrongStorm181]

well i don't understand why things should be made more complicated in the future only for bitcoin

[Harley997]

1 - this is not true. As long as merchants accept BTC then BTC is a medium of exchange.

You could make the same argument about dollars since many large companies buy short term treasury bonds with the majority of their BTC.

2 - as of not BTC is not a store of value. It's price is much to volatile. It will likely be a store of value in the future as more of the public starts to accept and use bitcoin.

With the above being said neither of these points has anything to do with the future of the price of bitcoin.

Your "accusations" are true to almost every investment.

[porc]

I dont want to say I told you so, but the price has indeed collapsed since I started this thread at the highs in December 2013.

However it is not over yet. It will go down to single digits and lower (eventually zero is a fair valuation).

If you want a summary of my reasoning read the my first post and this one:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=361037.msg3926046#msg3926046

[Un zafado cualquiera]

I dont want to say I told you so, but the price has indeed collapsed since I started this thread at the highs in December 2013.

However it is not over yet. It will go down to single digits and lower (eventually zero is a fair valuation).

If you want a summary of my reasoning read the my first post and this one:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=361037.msg3926046#msg3926046

So you are telling me because bitcoin price drop from 31$ to two, it can't recover?

Wait a moment... I saw this before.

It lasted a year.

[jbreen1]

Is the collapse now?

[JorgeStolfi]

So you are telling me because bitcoin price drop from 31$ to two, it can't recover?
Wait a moment... I saw this before.
It lasted a year.

It would be important to understand why it rose to 32, perhaps more than why it dropped to 2.

Each bubble in bitcoin's history is can be explained as the opening of a new market -- either a new use, or a new community of users separated from previous markets by some barrier -- language, geography, profession, socioeconomic status, whatever.

Most bubbles had a fast rise, a crash, some oscillations, and then settled at a steady level substantially higher than the previou stady level.

The famous 2011 bubble, that started soon after 2011-04-01, at 0.5 $/BTC, began like the others; however, after the oscillations died out, instead fo settling to a steady state, it started to decay eponentially.  By 2011-11-09 is was down to 2 $/BTC; however, if a new bubble had not started at that time, it would probably have continued to drop until the pre-bubble level d 0.5 $/BTC.

The Nov/2013 buuble behaved in a similar fashion, but we have an explanation for it: it was created by the opening of the Mainland Chinese market, and it deflated during 2014 because the Chinese lost interest in bitcoin, since they could not use it for anything except gambling in the exchanges.  Now the last Chinese day-traders are dumping BTC to play in the Chinese stock market, which is booming.

So the question is: what was the "market" that created the 2011 bubble, and why did that market evaporate?

[Amph]

Is the collapse now?

high chance yes, it won't fall much farther, better to buy now those cheap coins

[stonerider]

I think jorge hit it right on the nail with:

"It would be important to understand why it rose to 32, perhaps more than why it dropped to 2.

Each bubble in bitcoin's history is can be explained as the opening of a new market -- either a new use, or a new community of users separated from previous markets by some barrier -- language, geography, profession, socioeconomic status, whatever.

Most bubbles had a fast rise, a crash, some oscillations, and then settled at a steady level substantially higher than the previou stady level.

The famous 2011 bubble, that started soon after 2011-04-01, at 0.5 $/BTC, began like the others; however, after the oscillations died out, instead fo settling to a steady state, it started to decay eponentially.  By 2011-11-09 is was down to 2 $/BTC; however, if a new bubble had not started at that time, it would probably have continued to drop until the pre-bubble level d 0.5 $/BTC.

The Nov/2013 buuble behaved in a similar fashion, but we have an explanation for it: it was created by the opening of the Mainland Chinese market, and it deflated during 2014 because the Chinese lost interest in bitcoin, since they could not use it for anything except gambling in the exchanges.  Now the last Chinese day-traders are dumping BTC to play in the Chinese stock market, which is booming.

So the question is: what was the "market" that created the 2011 bubble, and why did that market evaporate?"

I'd like to know the answer to the question.

[Dread Pirate Roberts]

i think because a lot bad news at this begin of januari

[BaselessBitcoin]

What does everyone consider a collapse in price. BTC hovered in the low 100's for half a year so maybe we are jumping the gun screaming collapse.

[Troonetpt]

It has  collapsed many times, and it recovery quickly.

[lastlove9091]

It has  collapsed many times, and it recovery quickly.

i really hope it... because i need increasing of BTC .. i have only 5BTC  from 400USD/1 BTC