Why didn't you sell?

[600watt]

it sure does look easy afterwards. but when you are heavy into bitcoin you may believe your financial wealth is stored here. probably not only for you but for your family and even some generations down. the only place to keep that is cold storage.

every other day you come across some news that could signal "the end of bitcoin" and every other day price volatiles up and down more than 20 %. if you don´t learn to NOT TOUCH YOUR COLD STORAGE every time you feel tempted, it will be gone soon.

for many this happened. others resisted the temptation, and those are the ones who still have their coins. op, you are actually asking us why we do what is the only thing that worked for us.

would you really gamble with the wealth of your future by putting it on an exchange that you cannot know for sure it is still there tomorrow? those exchanges are companies. they can vanish, be hacked, steal your coins, they can be seized, whatever....

furthermore, it is completely nervewrecking to try to find tops and bottoms. we have all been there, done that. succeeded, thought we figured it all out but one fucked up moment there is this wrong decision and here go some coins down the drain and that hurts much more than losing dollars.

my personal strategy is keeping 5% of my coins on an exchange. just to have something to "play" with when temptation gets overwhelming. in this crash i started to panic (sudden fear that it would be like 2011 with years for recovery) and went to 20 %  - but the most i have touched was 10 %.  

i have a friend who actually played an important role in my personal discovery of bitcoin. is argues like you: it´s is so easy to increase your bitcoin holdings with all this volatility - just buy low, sell high, rinse, repeat... easy. i always tell him i don´t see it being easy. he thinks i am stupid i guess. i asked him how many coins he has. the answer was: none.

[JayB]

Am I missing anything here?

It seems all you want to do is just defend the position of Bitcoin without being rational about it or having an open minded discussion. You believe in Bitcoin, fine that's great! Good for you! I hope you'll get rich because of it. But this topic has nothing to do with what you believe in the long term or about Bitcoin. Right?

Sorry, your topic asked why we didn't sell.  I communicated as such?   If you don't sell because you believe it will be much more than it is today why does that not count?  

Because even if you do believe that it'll be worth more than what it is today you could've still sold at 1,200 and bought back at 700. That's my whole argument.

You're not closing your position in Bitcoin, you're just enhancing your position by taking advantage of volatility.

[I_bitcoin]

Because even if you do believe that it'll be worth more than what it is today you could've still sold at 1,200 and bought back at 700. That's my whole argument.

You're not closing your position in Bitcoin, you're just enhancing your position by taking advantage of volatility.

IC.   In that case I did not sell because I am a horrible guesser and I figure it will go back up and over anyway.   I did buy more though.   And if it would just drop again I might buy even more .   FWIW, your post came across a bit differently which may be why some people are riled up.

[Odalv]

Am I missing anything here?

It seems all you want to do is just defend the position of Bitcoin without being rational about it or having an open minded discussion. You believe in Bitcoin, fine that's great! Good for you! I hope you'll get rich because of it. But this topic has nothing to do with what you believe in the long term or about Bitcoin. Right?

Sorry, your topic asked why we didn't sell.  I communicated as such?   If you don't sell because you believe it will be much more than it is today why does that not count?  

Because even if you do believe that it'll be worth more than what it is today you could've still sold at 1,200 and bought back at 700. That's my whole argument.

You're not closing your position in Bitcoin, you're just enhancing your position by taking advantage of volatility.

There is correction now. Put ALL YOUR money into Bitcoin and then give advices. It is quite different to play with YOUR OWN money.

[pbody]

I did not sell at 1200 because its a pita to get money in and out of the market. The damn week long wait for coinbase to fund my account.

I'm in it for the long term .

[piramida]

Because even if you do believe that it'll be worth more than what it is today you could've still sold at 1,200 and bought back at 700. That's my whole argument.

You're not closing your position in Bitcoin, you're just enhancing your position by taking advantage of volatility.

Maybe we have different definitions of "sold", but it is closing your position, albeit temporarily. Way too often this ends up badly, like for example closing your position on this last runup when 300 was considered "too high", would have been a money-losing mistake since you'd be buying back in higher. This things happen, and you need to remember - there never was a bad time to buy bitcoins (so far), but there were very many bad times to sell at prices which are not coming back anymore.

[PenAndPaper]

Am I missing anything here?

It seems all you want to do is just defend the position of Bitcoin without being rational about it or having an open minded discussion. You believe in Bitcoin, fine that's great! Good for you! I hope you'll get rich because of it. But this topic has nothing to do with what you believe in the long term or about Bitcoin. Right?

Sorry, your topic asked why we didn't sell.  I communicated as such?   If you don't sell because you believe it will be much more than it is today why does that not count?  

Because even if you do believe that it'll be worth more than what it is today you could've still sold at 1,200 and bought back at 700. That's my whole argument.

You're not closing your position in Bitcoin, you're just enhancing your position by taking advantage of volatility.

Well not all people are willing to day trade. Also it's easy to say sell at 1200 after the priced crashed.

[tomatitotarifa]

I think it's because the last month convinced people that nothing can stop bitcoin from hitting the moon 
I mean the main debate before the china crash was if bitcoin will reach 100k or 1m$ . It's not easy to sell after that 

Great so please concentrate with me:

Suppose you start off with 10 Bitcoins, market price is 1,200$
> China announcement is live
> You sell your 10 Bitcoins at 1,200$ each and you pay 120$ transaction fee (1% of total), and end up with: (1200 x 10) - 120 = 11,880$
> 2 Days later price of Bitcoin seems to stabilize at 700$
> With the 11,880$ you made selling your initial Bitcoin, you buy back Bitcoins at 700$ each. So now you'll have 11,880/700 = 16.97 Bitcoins
Remove 1% transaction fees and you'll get 16.8 Bitcoins

WOW! Magic! Guess what, you're 68% wealthier than 2 days ago....

So now couple of years down the line, you'll have 16.8 million dollars worth of Bitcoins instead of only 10 million dollars....

Capich?

What if this v common scenario plays out:

Sell at $1200 as per your plan
Buy back at $700 as per your plan
Price drops further to $300-$400
Now you're waiting another 1 year for price to recover so you can make a profit.

The above scenario happens so many times in Bitcoin to so many people it's not even funny, it's one of the main reasons ppl just buy low and hold.

But, to be fair, you would still end up with more BTC. If price drops to 300 and didn't sell at 1200, you would still have the same amount, and still waiting to make a profit, but when that comes you have more profit.

[tomatitotarifa]

For those who had Bitcoins right before the Chinese Government's announcement this week and didn't sell them right after the announcement, why didn't you? I'm just curious.

Now I can think of 4 possibilities:

1- You thought the price will go back up and so got hold of your Bitcoins --> Very bad decision
2- You couldn't sell them due to the lack of buyers --> Plausible but unlikely
3- You are emotionally attached to your Bitcoins so you don't want to lose them no matter what --> You need a psychologist
4- When you found out about it, it was already too late --> I forgive you

(More reasons are welcome)

Now here's the explanation for the comments I included right after each possibility.

For reason # 1:

This would be a bad decision if you believe the money you could have made by selling high and buying back at a lower price is greater than the transaction costs associated with these two transactions. Let's say for example that transaction costs for trading Bitcoins is at 1% the value of your total transaction; in this case if you sold at 1,200$ which is nearly the value of each Bitcoin at the time of the news and bought back towards 700$, the value at which a Bitcoin became more stable, you would have made = [(500$ - transaction costs) x (the number of Bitcoins traded)], out of thin air.

The only counter-argument to this analysis would be to convince me that it wasn't normal (according to market dynamics) for a Bitcoin to fall for more than 2- 3% after the news (the break-even point at which you would have been indifferent to sell or hold your Bitcoins).

For reason # 2:

This is a plausible reason, and one which I wouldn't argue to much, except for the fact that I believe we have liquid markets for Bitcoins nowadays, and it's always possible to find a sucker who's willing to pay a higher price than market perception for a Bitcoin. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

For reason # 3 & 4:

No comment

I have made a 0.5BTC profit with this downturn when I could have made much more, but I am obviously not as smart as others.

Now, excuse me, I am late to my psychologist appointment. This Bitcoin thing...

[henryreardon]

For those who had Bitcoins right before the Chinese Government's announcement this week and didn't sell them right after the announcement, why didn't you?

1- You thought the price will go back up and so got hold of your Bitcoins --> Very bad decision

For reason # 1:
This would be a bad decision if you believe the money you could have made by selling high and buying back at a lower price is greater than the transaction costs associated with these two transactions. Let's say for example that transaction costs for trading Bitcoins is at 1% the value of your total transaction; in this case if you sold at 1,200$ which is nearly the value of each Bitcoin at the time of the news and bought back towards 700$, the value at which a Bitcoin became more stable, you would have made = [(500$ - transaction costs) x (the number of Bitcoins traded)], out of thin air.

This seems brilliant, and obvious, in hindsight.  And if you did time it just like this for yourself this time, kudos.  But will you be able to do it again, and again?

[favelle75]

I sold.  For sure.  Sold at $1107. Bought back in at $690.  Missed the bottom in both directions, but was happy to get SIXTY PERCENT MORE coins than what I had on Friday!  WooT!

[600watt]

I sold.  For sure.  Sold at $1107. Bought back in at $690.  Missed the bottom in both directions, but was happy to get SIXTY PERCENT MORE coins than what I had on Friday!  WooT!

congrats. my dick is bigger.

[Rampion]

You just do not turn your back on an asset that has given you a 7,000% gain in less than 12 months. Calling tops consistently is sheer luck or black magic (what's it, masterluc?)

The only way to rule out emotion is to have a rational plan that fits both your circumstances and your needs.

[Rampion]

I sold.  For sure.  Sold at $1107. Bought back in at $690.  Missed the bottom in both directions, but was happy to get SIXTY PERCENT MORE coins than what I had on Friday!  WooT!

You sold ALL your BTCs? That's a dangerous gamble. One that historically didn't succeed. - the one that has historically been a winner is pushing BUY at any given moment.

You got lucky. Probably you won't in the future. Try to accumulate as much coins as possible and then gradually sell for profit when you hit your targets.

Good luck.

[BitChick]

Many people panicked after the shut down of Silk Road and sold their coins.  The rebound was really fast though and then many had to buy in at a higher price and ended up with less coins. The China situation could have had the same response. Nothing is a sure thing with BTC.

For some of us with BTC in cold storage, it is a bit time consuming to get coins on exchanges.  Then the risk of trading them is a bit daunting.  It is not a guarantee that the price will drop much.  For those of us that do not want to end up with more fiat then BTC it is just not worth the risk.  We are thinking long term here.  To end up with $10,000 or more in fiat now would be stupid if the BTC we sold is worth $100,000 in a few months.  It is way less risky to just buy and hold.

[CoinCidental]

why should i sell at  $1200 ?  tis chicken feed 

[traderCJ]

Didn't sell because I saw what I interpreted as market manipulation which resulted in a combination of mass panic and speculators expecting "teh cheep coinz".  Sure, you can try to guess at precisely how dumb people can be ($800?  $700?  $600?), and if you guess right, congratulations.  But you're only guessing at mass psychology and the whims of the whales.  Generally, a foolish thing to do.  We'll rebound and things will go back to usual shortly.

Also, I tend to be morally opposed to contributing to panics to fatten my wallet.  I know most of you are in it for the quick buck, but some of us would rather sink or swim with Bitcoin.

[EvilPanda]

I bought at 150 and will hold until I'm at a loss. Currently it's a constant win because every month it goes up.

[favelle75]

I sold.  For sure.  Sold at $1107. Bought back in at $690.  Missed the bottom in both directions, but was happy to get SIXTY PERCENT MORE coins than what I had on Friday!  WooT!

You sold ALL your BTCs? That's a dangerous gamble. One that historically didn't succeed. - the one that has historically been a winner is pushing BUY at any given moment.

You got lucky. Probably you won't in the future. Try to accumulate as much coins as possible and then gradually sell for profit when you hit your targets.

Good luck.

Sort of a gamble... I'm still mining, so there's always new coins coming in. So if the prices rise, I win at mining, if the price drops, I win at buying back more coins than I had before. Fully hedged I am.

[favelle75]

Didn't sell because I saw what I interpreted as market manipulation which resulted in a combination of mass panic and speculators expecting "teh cheep coinz".  Sure, you can try to guess at precisely how dumb people can be ($800?  $700?  $600?), and if you guess right, congratulations.  But you're only guessing at mass psychology and the whims of the whales.  Generally, a foolish thing to do.  We'll rebound and things will go back to usual shortly.

Also, I tend to be morally opposed to contributing to panics to fatten my wallet.  I know most of you are in it for the quick buck, but some of us would rather sink or swim with Bitcoin.

But of you know for certain it's a panic, you don't need to call the bottom. You just need to buy back coins at a lower price than what you originally bought them for.