Cross-posting this...
About the imminent conflagrapocalpyse...
What does that have to do with whether the technology exists to improve nuclear?
I hope you realize energy is regulated and taxed such that it is controlled by cartels. Getting rid of that doesn't imply a Dark Age, rather it frees us to realize innovations which were suppressed because they are paradigm shifts which compete with the cartels.
AnonyMint, I realize you are a very intelligent man and I enjoy reading your posts because they address many glaring problems others might realize but either subconciously or deliberately ignore to protect their investments or agendas.
My question to you though is because I have read your prediction about the burst of a $ 150 trillion debt bubble multiple times in your posts how you think such an event will unfold.
To whom is the world in debt exactly and how does this creditor force the government(s) to act as his debt collector(s)? From my understanding of your scenario it will lead to a widespread pauperization of the world respectively the majority of the people. Do you predict a simultaneous increase in the creditor's wealth or is this a scenario where basically everybody gets poorer?
As I explained in an upthread post (which I am too rushed to go find the link to at the moment), the ledger of who owes whom is less important consideration than the fact that it represents $150 trillion of human capital that was misdirected in its activities since mid-1980s and especially since 1994 or so when the debt-based economy accelerated (
1994 is when Clinton had the equations for official statistics changed so they can unleash the surge).
(
note we have inflation of fractional reserve digits which is why official stats lie about inflation to hide its relevance, but simultaneously we have a deflation of M0 which official stats also lie about by including bank deposits held Federal Reserve (which should be monetary base MB not M0), thus MB is hockey stick but the Fed doesn't show us the true M0. The Fed is trying to hide from us the deflation that is really there. We can get a proxy for what is happening with M0 by looking velocity of MB which falling like rock!
Go to this link then change the "a/b" to "b/a", click the "Redraw Graph" button, so that you get GDP / MB, then you will see velocity is falling off a cliff since 2008.)
So this is why technological employment is going to be so severe and massive overcapacity in manufacturing, fixed capital infrastructure, and conspicuous consumption, because all during the 1970s, 80s, 90s, and 2000s, while a few of us hackers were becoming 100000X more productive with our new found toy (the personal computer), the bulk of the population was able to stay in the old industrial economy thanks to increasing debt.
So what you are going to see when the $150 trillion debt bomb explodes 2016ish is that anyone who is not very technically relevant in the new Knowledge Economy will find themselves unemployable. The governments will try to appease this majority by taxation and confiscating everything, because they fundamentally don't understand the cause of the problem.
With both scenarios (further concentration of wealth/obliteration of wealth) I see several problems that make this scenario seem unlikely.
Those ledger IOUs are worthless to both lender and borrower. The capital now is all in the brains of hackers such as myself. We take over now. Checkmate. While we were busy sleeping under our desks for the past 3 decades, the rest of you were out enjoying yourself. Now the payback comes. Oxford U. admits 47% of the existing jobs will be replaced with robots over next 19 years (was 20 last year when study was published).
1) The widespread confiscation of wealth would inevitably weaken or even nearly eradicate consumerism which is one of the strongest motors to our society and one of the most effective measures for the elite to concentrate wealth at the same time by concentrating the production to satisfy consumerism. What would the elite gain by basically wiping out most people's spending capacity?
The government isn't run rationally. The vested interests want to suck as much blood out of a turnip as they can. They have no foresight on outcomes, especially they don't even understand.
However, I am one of those who do believe the Bilderbergs understand they must first collapse the economy in order to create the chaos from which they can get their one world government. They want to weaken local and national structures so they can get the economy-of-scale of control to compete with the technology which is rewarding bottom-up hackers.
It is really a defensive move for them and they while getting their world outcome are actually in retreat and losing the way ultimately.
This would in either case harm the creditor by either obliterating his own wealth or at least a lot of possibilities to spend his own wealth.
2) Do all relevant governments work on this collectively? From my current observations of international politics it seems as this is not the case most of the time. Why would it be the case in this event and wouldn't it create opportunities for backstabbing and breaking of the agreement to confiscate all wealth?
The nation-state is being destroyed by this. The national institutions will be completely discredited and untrusted within a decade.
Out of the ashes the Phoenix will rise. The world will see massive new productivity once the youth take political control away from the boomers and we move to a high tech Knowledge Age where there are no more severe national barriers. You will be able to freely travel and invest in all countries, we will be headed towards a Jetsons level of lifestyle...
3) What boundaries are set for the governments in this scenario? Are concepts like democratic elections or consistency with the constitution still applicable in this case? If not what changes and what keeps governments from doing now what you predict for 2016?
The constitutions aren't followed any more any way.
Government is reactionary. The owners of the government (the vested interests) only do what they need to maintain their position of privilege. They are preparing (e.g. the 2714 tank-like vehicles and 10 billion rounds of hollow point bullets for the Homelove Security dept in the USA, the 9/11 pretext to track everything we do, etc..) but just like in Ukraine and other places where there have been unrest, they will only act as necessary.
The peripheral economies blow up first. We see already Ukraine, Greece, Spain, Thailand, India, Indonesia, Egypt, even China has -18% drop in exports just this month over last year.
Then core of Europe 2015ish or so.
Then the USA will be last to fall 2016ish.
We are getting very close now. We might see a dead-cat bounce in 2017, and the severe SHTF hard down phase maybe 2018.
I hope you can answer some of these potential problems/questions as the theory seems pretty far-fetched in my opinion. I would rather fear a global nuclear war at the moment.
Looking forward to hearing from you.
Well yeah that is why I've been screaming this in the Mad Max thread in the Politics forum. Check it out for more details. See also the Economic Devastation thread in the Economics forum.
There is no chance I am wrong. Zero. The only variability is in the timing. By 2020, I assure you we are in a shithole outcome.
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