Stephen Reed's Million Dollar Logistic Model

[Ed4252]

You're welcome.The model is on my computer, so far scattered in several files but I'll clean it up.
It is not based on a particular modelling theory. I've started it from scratch, looking for correlations.

Have a nice week.

I'm genuinely interested, but without a model you just made a price forecast. There's no point comparing it to SlipperySlope's model as the timeframe and historic volatility, among others parameters, must be considered.
If you think the last 12 months followed a different pattern, best suited by your model, you should explain it somehow as it would be of great value for everyone.

Have a nice week too!

Well, for starters, he's predicting under $400 by May 31.  It remains to be seen, but that would be interesting if it happens.

He's not the only one...


https://www.tradingview.com/v/hjgUvEKf/
https://www.tradingview.com/v/zP3USOow/

It's going to be an interesting week for bitcoin...

[wachtwoord]

It's going to be an interesting week for bitcoin...

Indeed, but a week may be a bit to short a period for events to unfold.

[aliro38]

Thanks to all for your great feedback!

Indeed, maybe it’d be much better to start a new thread, so this one stays clean.
My intention is to post weekly forecasts, both for the record and for testing purposes. If they’ll reasonably confirm then we shall move on, or otherwise my work will prove itself useless, wouldn’t it?
Please feel free to come and criticize/comment there.

I don’t have yet a sensitivity/error analysis neither many other things (my work is incipient), but obviously the timeframe is much shorter than that of Logistic Model. But rest assured it is not just a TA on price charts. For those interested in the inner workings, my starting points and ideas were already posted here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=366214.msg6452694#msg6452694

The problem with timeframe, as I see it now, is that bitcoin network seems to correct quite violently in terms of price evolution, both upwards and downwards. Such abrupt corrections may be modeled based on an internal variable with a threshold value. Once the threshold is even slightly exceeded, correction beings to unfold. Bellow that threshold the sensitivity is close to zero, where many parameters like price, transaction volume, number of transactions etc are free to float with little significance on the big picture. The essential feature is that when bitcoin reacts it does (or at least it always did) so toward a quick convergence with the Logistic Model / exponential growth. I’d say this kind of behavior was already felt by most of us but having it put inside a model is not trivial. It’s worth a try, nevertheless.
The big challenge is, imho, to parameterize the convergence and to periodically check if it holds true. If it does, then Logistic Model is valid, shorter timeframe models are pretty useless (maybe extremely useful to traders but that’s all) and for everyone else the good news is bitcoins can be hold on long term as an excellent investment. But if the convergence limits are breached (assuming they were well defined and modeled in the first place) it would mean, as sad as it may sound, that bitcoin is off the track from exponential grow, possibly to switch itself to another growing curve, to stagnation or even to a fade-away.

I’ll soon post the new link and sorry for slightly polluting the great thread here.

[Teppino]

Price forecasts are meaningless without a model imho. I can forecast the price for tomorrow with more precision if compared to any multi-year model but that's just blind following the market with reduced error (due to much smaller timeframe). Pretty much useless, if not harmful,  in the long term if you ask me.
How can you spot bitcoin off track without a model? In fact, if my interpretation of SlipperySlope's model is correct, we are either in a "Moment of maximum opportunity" but also "Maximum risk of model breaking" because we are so close to historical boundaries of model itself.

I know my english is far from perfect, apologies for that.

[SlipperySlope]

. . . In fact, if my interpretation of SlipperySlope's model is correct, we are either in a "Moment of maximum opportunity" but also "Maximum risk of model breaking" because we are so close to historical boundaries of model itself.

That is my appraisal of the current situation too.

[BitChick]

. . . In fact, if my interpretation of SlipperySlope's model is correct, we are either in a "Moment of maximum opportunity" but also "Maximum risk of model breaking" because we are so close to historical boundaries of model itself.

That is my appraisal of the current situation too.

Here is to hoping SlipperySlope's model is correct.

I would think that even if we continue on for several more weeks at a plateau or even just slight movement upwards we are not too far off of the model though are we? 

[kireinaha]

. . . In fact, if my interpretation of SlipperySlope's model is correct, we are either in a "Moment of maximum opportunity" but also "Maximum risk of model breaking" because we are so close to historical boundaries of model itself.

That is my appraisal of the current situation too.

I hope it's not the case, otherwise we may have to revise the projections to fit the hype cycle instead. And if that's the case, then perhaps we hit the peak of "inflated expectations" last November.

[hdbuck]

I'd say we are right in the slope of enlightenment

[bitAsp]

. . . In fact, if my interpretation of SlipperySlope's model is correct, we are either in a "Moment of maximum opportunity" but also "Maximum risk of model breaking" because we are so close to historical boundaries of model itself.

That is my appraisal of the current situation too.

Model, Shmodel, who needs a model...

Um, who should we take more seriously...  a guy who says he has a model but then won't provide it... aliro38... or this guy...

• I guarantee there will another Bitcoin price bubble... -- Barry Silbert
• Big milestone today for Bitcoin Investment Trust -- now holds over 100,000 bitcoin -- Barry Silbert

[BitDreams]

. . . In fact, if my interpretation of SlipperySlope's model is correct, we are either in a "Moment of maximum opportunity" but also "Maximum risk of model breaking" because we are so close to historical boundaries of model itself.

That is my appraisal of the current situation too.

Here is to hoping SlipperySlope's model is correct.

I would think that even if we continue on for several more weeks at a plateau or even just slight movement upwards we are not too far off of the model though are we?  

I'm thinking the model is 'correct so far'.

That is, price is behaving according to the model, but here's the thing, his model could be wrong because the price levels out at 500k or 1.5 million

[BitChick]

. . . In fact, if my interpretation of SlipperySlope's model is correct, we are either in a "Moment of maximum opportunity" but also "Maximum risk of model breaking" because we are so close to historical boundaries of model itself.

That is my appraisal of the current situation too.

Here is to hoping SlipperySlope's model is correct.

I would think that even if we continue on for several more weeks at a plateau or even just slight movement upwards we are not too far off of the model though are we?  

I'm thinking the model is 'correct so far'.

That is, price is behaving according to the model, but here's the thing, his model could be wrong because the price levels out at 500k or 1.5 million

In which case most of us involved with BTC at this point should be in a pretty good place by then.

It does seem like we should be nearing the end of this long and a bit painful consolidation period. 

[2017orso]

Bitcoin market cap this moment - $ 5,615,035,838

# of countries with federally held bitcoin reserves - 0

# of major banks offering bitcoin-related products/services (not counting subsidiary exchanges) - 0

# of trusted organizations offering insured bitcoin storage - 1 : with reasonable parameters - 0

if we fall below trend / stay stagnant for a time to dislodge from trend, does not mean much fundamentally of course.

it may not even hold much against said trend, as a future bubble may 're-align' us etc.

[SlipperySlope]

so the end of 2014 looks to be around $6k and end of 2015 looks to be about $100k. Not a bad little chart. Im guessing 2014 will be higher than the chart has it, and 2015 will be a little lowe

I would guess the opposite. 2014 may be more like 2012 because 2011 was the great bubble, and 2013 had two bubbles. I suppose a bubble this summer and then a drop back to $3000 through year end.

The model value for May 12, is $1259 and the recorded price of $442.5 is a record -.454 Log10 units below the trend.

[ZephramC]

. . . In fact, if my interpretation of SlipperySlope's model is correct, we are either in a "Moment of maximum opportunity" but also "Maximum risk of model breaking" because we are so close to historical boundaries of model itself.

That is my appraisal of the current situation too.

I hope it's not the case, otherwise we may have to revise the projections to fit the hype cycle instead. And if that's the case, then perhaps we hit the peak of "inflated expectations" last November.

We need equation for this curve. ... Some denominator-shifted sinc?

[rpietila]

so the end of 2014 looks to be around $6k and end of 2015 looks to be about $100k. Not a bad little chart. Im guessing 2014 will be higher than the chart has it, and 2015 will be a little lowe

I would guess the opposite. 2014 may be more like 2012 because 2011 was the great bubble, and 2013 had two bubbles. I suppose a bubble this summer and then a drop back to $3000 through year end.

The model value for May 12, is $1259 and the recorded price of $442.5 is a record -.454 Log10 units below the trend.

It is not really a record. If plotted against the then-available trendline (your current trendline contains data that has not been available at some points in history), the price now is at a yearly low of -0.44 but not at an all-time low of -0.58.

[gnode]

so the end of 2014 looks to be around $6k and end of 2015 looks to be about $100k. Not a bad little chart. Im guessing 2014 will be higher than the chart has it, and 2015 will be a little lowe

I would guess the opposite. 2014 may be more like 2012 because 2011 was the great bubble, and 2013 had two bubbles. I suppose a bubble this summer and then a drop back to $3000 through year end.

The model value for May 12, is $1259 and the recorded price of $442.5 is a record -.454 Log10 units below the trend.

It is not really a record. If plotted against the then-available trendline (your current trendline contains data that has not been available at some points in history), the price now is at a yearly low of -0.44 but not at an all-time low of -0.58.

On what date was the all time low of -0.58 reached?

[rpietila]

The model value for May 12, is $1259 and the recorded price of $442.5 is a record -.454 Log10 units below the trend.

It is not really a record. If plotted against the then-available trendline (your current trendline contains data that has not been available at some points in history), the price now is at a yearly low of -0.44 but not at an all-time low of -0.58.

On what date was the all time low of -0.58 reached?

2012-5-31, -0.587 @ $5.16

[BitDreams]

So I believe my eldest son really 'saw bitcoin' tonight. Now I had given him some partial coins before, yet tonight he actually mined his own (dogecoin). He also got tipped for some writing he did on Reddit, and he just gave some away (wow). He knows bitcoin is top dog, I've tracked as he moved the wallet a half-dozen times.

The fuel for the next rally is only just building. The rising tide will lift all boats - Hodl to-da-moon bitcoin badger.

[Arghhh]

We're a little closer to one million today than we were last week. 

[deisik]

We're a little closer to one million today than we were last week. 

I wouldn't say "we", probably our grandgrandchilren are (for us it makes no sense)...