Stephen Reed's Million Dollar Logistic Model

[gnode]

So is anyone buying and selling based on this logarithmic action? It seems like it could be a good indicator. If the price is x% higher than the curve, maybe it's a wise time to sell and buy in when it drops to x% under the curve.

The problem with following the approach of buying and selling based on this logarithmic action is that one will miss out on the big super bubble when it occurs. If the approach is buying and holding until the peak of a super bubble then success is much more likely. What I plan to do is hold until bitcoin price difference is around 1.7 or 50x of the trend, then one is pretty sure it is the peak of a super bubble. All the peaks before the super bubble peak are not good times to sell. However, All large troughs before the super bubble peak are good times to buy.

[1714763765]

1714763765

[dennydotco]

I've read a lot over the last year, but missed the idea of a super bubble. Got a link?

[Adrian-x]

I've read a lot over the last year, but missed the idea of a super bubble. Got a link?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=366214.msg6972726#msg6972726
There are 3 super bubbles above the trend line, and by my count 7 (bubbles) peeks followed by my interpretation, a crash, bringing the total to 7. One for every order of magnitude in growth, overlooking the one repeat during the down trend following the overshoot in June 2011.

Start with the OP this thread is a fun read.

[marcus_of_augustus]

Bubble is not the correct terminology to be using for these upswings since the lows have never gone below the previous cycle high, yet.

They are more correctly waves, or super cycles, hype cycles perhaps ... but not bubbles, that's just plain wrong.

[gnode]

I've read a lot over the last year, but missed the idea of a super bubble. Got a link?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=366214.msg6972726#msg6972726
There are 3 super bubbles above the trend line, and by my count 7 (bubbles) peeks followed by my interpretation, a crash, bringing the total to 7. One for every order of magnitude in growth, overlooking the one repeat during the down trend following the overshoot in June 2011.

Start with the OP this thread is a fun read.

Looking at this graph, https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=366214.msg6972726#msg6972726, there is only one super bubble or super wave. The one that has a peak of 1.7. The other peaks are "normal" bubbles or overshoots of the trend line.

[Adrian-x]

Looking at this graph, https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=366214.msg6972726#msg6972726, there is only one super bubble or super wave. The one that has a peak of 1.7. The other peaks are "normal" bubbles or overshoots of the trend line.

Bang on @ you and marcus_of_augustus we're at an all time low, and who knows the trend line may go in cycles and we could be headed for an mega super hype cycle wave. ( or about to break the trend)

[cuddaloreappu]

approximately in the next 40 days we will be sure if this july bubble prediction is a good observation or not

[oda.krell]

Bubble is not the correct terminology to be using for these upswings since the lows have never gone below the previous cycle high, yet.

They are more correctly waves, or super cycles, hype cycles perhaps ... but not bubbles, that's just plain wrong.

You're technically correct of course, but the term bubble became pretty entrenched in our little group's sociolect, so it is well defined and means the right thing in this context one could argue.

I personally like to refer to it as "bubble cycles" to make clear that they are not bubbles in the conventional markets' sense, but that it's a repeating pattern.

Don't remember who posted about this ~6 months to a year ago, but he suggested to refer to it as "growth spurts". I liked that term/metaphor, but it never caught on, so "bubbles" it is for now.

[wachtwoord]

Bubble is not the correct terminology to be using for these upswings since the lows have never gone below the previous cycle high, yet.

They are more correctly waves, or super cycles, hype cycles perhaps ... but not bubbles, that's just plain wrong.

You're technically correct of course, but the term bubble became pretty entrenched in our little group's sociolect, so it is well defined and means the right thing in this context one could argue.

I personally like to refer to it as "bubble cycles" to make clear that they are not bubbles in the conventional markets' sense, but that it's a repeating pattern.

Don't remember who posted about this ~6 months to a year ago, but he suggested to refer to it as "growth spurts". I liked that term/metaphor, but it never caught on, so "bubbles" it is for now.

I once wrote a post about this proposing the term "growth spurt". It was positively received but somehow the term didn't stick. I still use that term though.

[gnode]

Hopefully, bitcoin's performance will change the term "bubble" from a bad thing to a good thing!

Or at the very least, the term "bitcoin bubble" will mean a really wonderful thing!

[SlipperySlope]

Hopefully, bitcoin's performance will change the term "bubble" from a bad thing to a good thing!

Or at the very least, the term "bitcoin bubble" will mean a really wonderful thing!

The unsustainable super-exponential growth that characterized the three great bitcoin price bubbles is very much like the other academically studied asset bubbles. It is true however that the two bubbles of 2013 collapsed to a price very much higher than the starting bubble price.

I, like other occasional traders, love bitcoin bubbles.

[Bios Optimus]

lets hope "history repeats itself" holds true.

[deisik]

lets hope "history repeats itself" holds true.

Yeah, history repeats itself, first as tragedy, then as farce...

[okthen]

Bubble is not the correct terminology to be using for these upswings since the lows have never gone below the previous cycle high, yet.

They are more correctly waves, or super cycles, hype cycles perhaps ... but not bubbles, that's just plain wrong.

You're technically correct of course, but the term bubble became pretty entrenched in our little group's sociolect, so it is well defined and means the right thing in this context one could argue.

I personally like to refer to it as "bubble cycles" to make clear that they are not bubbles in the conventional markets' sense, but that it's a repeating pattern.

Don't remember who posted about this ~6 months to a year ago, but he suggested to refer to it as "growth spurts". I liked that term/metaphor, but it never caught on, so "bubbles" it is for now.

I once wrote a post about this proposing the term "growth spurt". It was positively received but somehow the term didn't stick. I still use that term though.

That's a great term, I'll adopt it (will try to remember).
Specially because there is a lot of confusion about whether someone is calling bitcoin itself a bubble, or talking about temporary bubbles - growth spurts.

[Zohann]

Great thread Stephen. Thanks for starting it.. it's helped me really investigate what's possible, and encouraged me to add BTC permanently in my portfolio.

[Jon_Snow]

Interesting thread especially for newcomers 

[awkorama]

is there a reason the spreadsheet has stopped being updated?

[holomen]

I have one in Mind - Stephen is at Malla conference now;) just a guess.

You can always count yourself, just open the spreadsheet calculations, copy few formulas and enter market price. Vuola.. and you are independent

[SlipperySlope]

is there a reason the spreadsheet has stopped being updated?

I just arrived at my summer home in the Colorado mountains, where I will escape Austin heat for a month.

The spreadsheet has been updated. Interesting that the trend price is growing at $25 daily.

[dennydotco]

So if the trend is correct and if it continues, now is the time to buy.

If we go from .50 below trend to .50 above trend in the next couple months...