Stephen Reed's Million Dollar Logistic Model

[wachtwoord]

At some point...if it reaches +0.7 the entire world will suddenly be aware of the bitcoin goldrush, it will be on the front of every money section of every newspaper and website in the world.


 

But when it returns to the norm afterwards we'll face the biggest "bubble" and "tulip mania" accusations yet. People who sold at or near the peak will be referred to as "those that got rich of Bitcoin" and will be labelled as scam artists and villains. People are fucking stupid. Be prepared for that.

[farfiman]

At some point...if it reaches +0.7 the entire world will suddenly be aware of the bitcoin goldrush, it will be on the front of every money section of every newspaper and website in the world.


 

But when it returns to the norm afterwards we'll face the biggest "bubble" and "tulip mania" accusations yet. People who sold at or near the peak will be referred to as "those that got rich of Bitcoin" and will be labelled as scam artists and villains. People are fucking stupid. Be prepared for that.

Hopefully it wont be such a violent bubble next time.I think many Hodlers will start selling big time when it hits the high thousands and limit the size of the bubble.Of course the complaints will still exist if it falls from 10K to 8K ....

[marcus_of_augustus]

People are fucking stupid. Be prepared for that.

  gold

[farfiman]

At some point...if it reaches +0.7 the entire world will suddenly be aware of the bitcoin goldrush, it will be on the front of every money section of every newspaper and website in the world.


 

But when it returns to the norm afterwards we'll face the biggest "bubble" and "tulip mania" accusations yet. People who sold at or near the peak will be referred to as "those that got rich of Bitcoin" and will be labelled as scam artists and villains. People are fucking stupid. Be prepared for that.

Hopefully it wont be such a violent bubble next time. I think many Hodlers will start selling big time when it hits the high thousands and limit the size of the bubble.
Of course the complaints will still exist if it falls from 10K to 8K ....

I do hope the bubble will be violent and I believe it will. We are way below the trend now. What happens when you make the tension on a spring very large and then let go? Exactly, a violent a rapid movement in the opposite direction. Next bubble will be generously north of 10k I think.

I'm not worried about high it goes...10K is just dandy  
It's how low when it bursts.  a 50% correction from 10K  will be scary.

[wachtwoord]

At some point...if it reaches +0.7 the entire world will suddenly be aware of the bitcoin goldrush, it will be on the front of every money section of every newspaper and website in the world.


 

But when it returns to the norm afterwards we'll face the biggest "bubble" and "tulip mania" accusations yet. People who sold at or near the peak will be referred to as "those that got rich of Bitcoin" and will be labelled as scam artists and villains. People are fucking stupid. Be prepared for that.

Hopefully it wont be such a violent bubble next time. I think many Hodlers will start selling big time when it hits the high thousands and limit the size of the bubble.
Of course the complaints will still exist if it falls from 10K to 8K ....

I do hope the bubble will be violent and I believe it will. We are way below the trend now. What happens when you make the tension on a spring very large and then let go? Exactly, a violent a rapid movement in the opposite direction. Next bubble will be generously north of 10k I think.

I'm not worried about high it goes...10K is just dandy  
It's how low when it bursts.  a 50% correction from 10K  will be scary.

If our history shows anything it's that a 50% correction is highly likely.

[zimmah]

At some point...if it reaches +0.7 the entire world will suddenly be aware of the bitcoin goldrush, it will be on the front of every money section of every newspaper and website in the world.


 

But when it returns to the norm afterwards we'll face the biggest "bubble" and "tulip mania" accusations yet. People who sold at or near the peak will be referred to as "those that got rich of Bitcoin" and will be labelled as scam artists and villains. People are fucking stupid. Be prepared for that.

Hopefully it wont be such a violent bubble next time. I think many Hodlers will start selling big time when it hits the high thousands and limit the size of the bubble.
Of course the complaints will still exist if it falls from 10K to 8K ....

I do hope the bubble will be violent and I believe it will. We are way below the trend now. What happens when you make the tension on a spring very large and then let go? Exactly, a violent a rapid movement in the opposite direction. Next bubble will be generously north of 10k I think.

I'm not worried about high it goes...10K is just dandy  
It's how low when it bursts.  a 50% correction from 10K  will be scary.

If our history shows anything it's that a 50% correction is highly likely.

yes, be prepared for corrections up till even about 60~70%

they will likely happen, many people will likely either panic (god i hope they don't suicide, there are crazy persons in the world..) or troll the forums. The media will be all over it and we might see another few months of recovery and extremely negative media followed by media silence.

Meanwhile all your friends who know you have bitcoin might think you are a millionaire than, etc.
Prepare yourself, now rather than later.

I will try to at least double my bitcoin holdings in the next rally, but i hope i don't screw up massively because the next one will likely not be anything like the others before it.

[wachtwoord]

I will try to at least double my bitcoin holdings in the next rally, but i hope i don't screw up massively because the next one will likely not be anything like the others before it.

Why take the chance then?

[zimmah]

I will try to at least double my bitcoin holdings in the next rally, but i hope i don't screw up massively because the next one will likely not be anything like the others before it.

Why take the chance then?

because profit

if i'm careful i will more likely make money than lose money, even if i can't make as much as i hoped.

i will still leave some reserves just in case i do screw up though.

[KeyJockey]

Heh... I don't wanna frighten anyone here with this post, LOL but just for the sake of illustration...

I made a graph using Mr. Reed's chart and a cut & paste of the previous HIGH PRICE divergence from the trendline, i.e. to show what a similar extreme LOW might look like... flipped the line horizontal/vertical and lined up with red trend line and today's price point.



Yeah, it's UGLY man... UGLY!  Oh!  Oh!  and "AAAAAAAA" Jesus God I sure HOPE we don't all have to endure some valley of HELL on Earth like this... "AAAAAAA"     

But y'know just the same -- ya gotta take the bad with the good, right?  And if our little bitcoin Engine That Could can go PLUS+ this extreme, we all ought to be prepared to also accept it as "normal" in case it's gotta go MINUS- this extreme too, sometimes.

I know, I know, LOL.  Ugly.  But talk about the ultimate "shake out" of weak-hands?  LOL

Maybe the only consolation here IF (God Forbid) this really has to happen, look where we still end up after reconvergence to trend line middle of next year.  Whew! 

I don't know about you guys but IF (again, God Forbid) something like this DOES have to happen, I'm prepared to go down with the ship psychologically speaking, just so that I'll still be "afloat" when the rescue helicopter finally DOES arrive. 

[wachtwoord]

You are predicting 31k (almost 70 times today's price) exactly one year out and you're saying you don't want to frighten anyone 

[ask]

You are predicting 31k (almost 70 times today's price) exactly one year out and you're saying you don't want to frighten anyone 

You must understand that he shorted 1BTC and now is praying for drop to buy two.

[KeyJockey]

You are predicting 31k (almost 70 times today's price) exactly one year out and you're saying you don't want to frighten anyone  

Ha, wachtwoord... naw I ain't "predicting" nothin'... it's SR's chart, trendline, Risto's etc... I'm just looking at it and hopeful it might really be true?

Just sayin' that IF so, IF the trendline's still "truth" and IF we might end up at that 31K price next autumn?  The benefits of that might only come to those who can pay the price of having to HOLD ON thru it first touching a hundred bucks or so again.

AND... that's "normal"    -- nothing much odd for this trendline & bitcoin's history.

But how many people, even "believers" here, really have the stomach for that?

Bitcoin is crazy.  LOL... so I think personally I gotta believe a little "crazy" too in order to be prepared to cope with whatever's gonna happen next in BTCWorld.

And no, Ask... I've never short-sold: I'm strictly a HODL'er although, yes, my dollar-cost average at the moment is something in the low $600's-ish, so yah unfortunately I'm actually in the red with my overall BTC investment, so far... *but* I'm still hodlin' and lookin' to buy more if at all possible.

[CMMPro]

I'd say same upside prediction but we are 99% likely not going to go below $340, and 100% not going to go below $266...my 2 bits fwiw.

[wachtwoord]

But how many people, even "believers" here, really have the stomach for that?

I have. I prefer not to, but I have the stomach for that.

[arthur_excalibur]

If our history shows anything it's that a 50% correction is highly likely.

The figures for the most important bitcoin cycles so far are as follows.

2011 wave - correction from $31.91 top to $1.99 low (-/- 93%)
2013 wave - correction from $266 top to $55 low (-/- 79%)
2013/2014 wave - correction from $1163 top to $340 low (-/- 71%)

So yes, a correction of 50% - 60% is indeed very likely for the next wave.

[KeyJockey]

2011 wave - correction from $31.91 top to $1.99 low (-/- 93%)
2013 wave - correction from $266 top to $55 low (-/- 79%)
2013/2014 wave - correction from $1163 top to $340 low (-/- 71%)

So yes, a correction of 50% - 60% is indeed very likely for the next wave.

That 2011 wave is the one I cut-and-pasted, flipped horizontal & vertical (purple colored) to show what it'd look like as a down-version rather than the extreme UP version that it was, back then.  

So, yeah, 93% = OUCH!! Ugly, man... UGLY.

But ya also can't really say here that the 2013-14 wave is "71%" to $340 low, since there's not been another ATH yet.

Who's to say the bloodletting is over?  Unfortunately, it not only may NOT be over yet -- it may (frighteningly) in fact JUST be getting STARTED.

How can we know, for sure? We can make educated GUESSES about what's going on, but we can't really KNOW anything.

And IF we apply that ugly 93% from 2011 to last year's $1163? We're back again to that horrible $100-ish value.  "AAAAAAA"  

But, again, this is NORMAL.  
This is BITCOIN.  
THIS is what bitcoin DOES.
Bitcoin is crazy.  

BUT THE TRENDLINE WOULD STILL BE "TRUTH"  

But how many people, even "believers" here, really have the stomach for that?

I have. I prefer not to, but I have the stomach for that.

I do too, man... like I said I'm preparing for it: I wrote this post probably just to test myself about if I'm really correct to think this way, or if such "belief" in the trendline is actually stupid, or blind, or naive, or wishful thinking, or something else, LOL.

IF this kind of extreme scenario is possible?  I want to be psychologically ready to weather that storm, because the payoff on this once in a lifetime type of opportunity is definitely worth it.  $30K per BTC next year would be life-changing: I missed out on BTC going from $10 to $100 even though I should've known better (I had plenty of opportunity to see it, multiple chances and many signs, and I just didn't LOOK hard enough & been kicking myself for a year now over that).  But NOW finally I can SEE it (??) and I don't wanna miss the train again.

Anyway, IMHO either you believe bitcoin and the blockchain concept is valuable and useful and world-changing, or you don't.

Buy The Bitcoin,  Take The Ride... LOL
   

         

[zadiume]

So, 10K when?

[lyth0s]

Slippery slope, could you please post two graphs for me keeping everything the same but the target bitcoin price at $250,000 and one at $500,000? I'm curious as to how the price would tie in with the trend lines.

[marcus_of_augustus]

Slippery slope, could you please post two graphs for me keeping everything the same but the target bitcoin price at $250,000 and one at $500,000? I'm curious as to how the price would tie in with the trend lines.

I'd also like to see one using log "market cap" instead of log price ... i.e. a sigmoid curve targetting $17 T  ~2018

[arthur_excalibur]

Who's to say the bloodletting is over?  Unfortunately, it not only may NOT be over yet -- it may (frighteningly) in fact JUST be getting STARTED.

Maybe, but I don't think so. As you might have noticed, every correction ended above the previous top so far. That's not only a bullish sign for a long term investment in bitcoin, it is also an indication that we should stay above $266 this time. Currently my bets are on the 340 level to hold.

Nevertheless, the bitcoin rollercoaster is a pretty wild ride, and tickets are not for the weak of heart indeed.