Bear market confirmed? Bear market confirmed!

[oda.krell]

Or you don't think so?

I don't want to bore you with my feeble attempts at technical analysis, that half of this board doesn't believe in anyway, but let's say I'm probably not the only one who doesn't see us going to DA MOON again a week from now.  Then again, I'm sure there's quite a few here who would disagree with that :D

So let's say we're going down from here. How long will we be in that bear market? That's another question. At least one guy who's opinion I usually respect seems to think we're in for a really long bear market, well into the next year. I'm not that pessimistic myself, but a month or two of slow decline is something I definitely see as a real possibility.

Shall we have a vote on this? Put down our prediction, see how it turns out?

One thing: please don't complain that there aren't more "bullish" options. We just went from 1200 to 600/700 -- there is no way you can call that bullish. The only question is: do you believe we will recover really quickly, or will it take a while.

[justice]

so knc sold miners, about 20k btc are being cashed out.

[MindGrenade]

I think we will see a steady climb back to 900 once the dust has settled, followed by a several week long bear market.

Then were back in rally territory. Wall street money this time!

[MatTheCat]

Or you don't think so?

I don't want to bore you with my feeble attempts at technical analysis, that half of this board doesn't believe in anyway, but let's say I'm probably not the only one who doesn't see us going to DA MOON again a week from now.  Then again, I'm sure there's quite a few here who would disagree with that

So let's say we're going down from here. How long will we be in that bear market? That's another question. At least one guy who's opinion I usually respect seems to think we're in for a really long bear market, well into the next year. I'm not that pessimistic myself, but a month or two of slow decline is something I definitely see as a real possibility.

Shall we have a vote on this? Put down our prediction, see how it turns out?

One thing: please don't complain that there aren't more "bullish" options. We just went from 1200 to 600/700 -- there is no way you can call that bullish. The only question is: do you believe we will recover really quickly, or will it take a while.

The main market is BTC China. Yesterday, whilst Gox and Bitstamp were pushing towards previous support levels, they smashed through their support level and the BTC China chart is looking bearish as hell now, and this is the market driver. One would have to think, that BTC China is going to go much lower, and it will drag the USD markets with it back to demoralising low levels.

I believe we are going much lower, but for how long is anyone's guess. For the good of Bitcoin (not for the good of speculators pockets), I would like to see an extended trending/stagnation period in Bitcoin, which will be good for facilitating trade. The darknet site which I frequent for novelty produce has been down for over a week, just as well or thanks to the latest Bitcoin crash, there would be multiple vendors in bankcrupt situations, with some no doubt owing a lot of money to some rather dangerous people. Infact, I wonder if the operators of the site have deliberately pulled the site down, knowing what has went before and seeing history repeat itself.

So I hope for a good few months of trending/stagnation and that is what I voted for....but I am only guessing. I am however confident and am placing my bets on much lower prices than we see just now at $650.

[oda.krell]

I think we will see a steady climb back to 900 once the dust has settled, followed by a several week long bear market.

Then were back in rally territory. Wall street money this time!

Oh, I'm sure we'll see rally territory at some point. But "several week long bear market" can range from 2 weeks (b(e)arely worth selling your coins) to ~6 month (like in 2011 -- when many people lost hope and gave up on Bitcoin). That's why it matters how long it'll last.

[T.Stuart]

I believe now, after the chaff, most people mean to be in until the middle of next year minimum.

I believe traders are having a difficult time predicting things to their advantages, and in any case the majority try to ride uptrends (not short) and generally bank on Bitcoin going up.

Whatever is happening today and tomorrow, I believe most here believe Bitcoin is going up substantially from January next year.

This makes me believe that at best for the bears, we will go "sideways" (700 - 900 in Bitcoin terms!) for a short time (2 weeks).

A lot of "believing" from me - maybe you "know" better?  

[anu]

I think we will see a steady climb back to 900 once the dust has settled, followed by a several week long bear market.

Then were back in rally territory. Wall street money this time!

Oh, I'm sure we'll see rally territory at some point. But "several week long bear market" can range from 2 weeks (b(e)arely worth selling your coins) to ~6 month (like in 2011 -- when many people lost hope and gave up on Bitcoin). That's why it matters how long it'll last.

Bitcoin is dead. Once and for all. The third time now. This means we should lose 3x more hope than 2011

[oda.krell]

I think we will see a steady climb back to 900 once the dust has settled, followed by a several week long bear market.

Then were back in rally territory. Wall street money this time!

Oh, I'm sure we'll see rally territory at some point. But "several week long bear market" can range from 2 weeks (b(e)arely worth selling your coins) to ~6 month (like in 2011 -- when many people lost hope and gave up on Bitcoin). That's why it matters how long it'll last.

Bitcoin is dead. Once and for all. The third time now. This means we should lose 3x more hope than 2011

Sure. I don't believe that. You don't believe that. But if enough people *do* believe it, at least for a while, it takes longer before we go to a new ATH, right?

[ajax3592]

I think we will see a steady climb back to 900 once the dust has settled, followed by a several week long bear market.

Then were back in rally territory. Wall street money this time!

Oh, I'm sure we'll see rally territory at some point. But "several week long bear market" can range from 2 weeks (b(e)arely worth selling your coins) to ~6 month (like in 2011 -- when many people lost hope and gave up on Bitcoin). That's why it matters how long it'll last.

Bitcoin is dead. Once and for all. The third time now. This means we should lose 3x more hope than 2011

Sure. I don't believe that. You don't believe that. But if enough people *do* believe it, at least for a while, it takes longer before we go to a new ATH, right?

In my opinion, the current trend will continue for a month or so and then it will start rising, not to the moon, but to something like stratosphere.

[proudhon]

I think we will see a steady climb back to 900 once the dust has settled, followed by a several week long bear market.

Then were back in rally territory. Wall street money this time!

Oh, I'm sure we'll see rally territory at some point. But "several week long bear market" can range from 2 weeks (b(e)arely worth selling your coins) to ~6 month (like in 2011 -- when many people lost hope and gave up on Bitcoin). That's why it matters how long it'll last.

Bitcoin is dead. Once and for all. The third time now. This means we should lose 3x more hope than 2011

This.  Unfortunately, I'll be forced to double my bitcoins...again!  Ugh!

[oda.krell]

I think we will see a steady climb back to 900 once the dust has settled, followed by a several week long bear market.

Then were back in rally territory. Wall street money this time!

Oh, I'm sure we'll see rally territory at some point. But "several week long bear market" can range from 2 weeks (b(e)arely worth selling your coins) to ~6 month (like in 2011 -- when many people lost hope and gave up on Bitcoin). That's why it matters how long it'll last.

Bitcoin is dead. Once and for all. The third time now. This means we should lose 3x more hope than 2011

This.  Unfortunately, I'll be forced to double my bitcoins...again!  Ugh!

Doesn't really answer the question though, does it?

[BryanK]

Idk, i just look at the 2 year chart and see this bubble and its on the way down. To similar to the Tulip bubble

[anu]

Idk, i just look at the 2 year chart and see this bubble and its on the way down. To similar to the Tulip bubble

Unpredictable. Maybe the price will follow the standard bubble life cycle. Maybe people recognize that it's the 3rd bubble within little more than 2 years and learned not to sell at the bottom. Those people who sold @63 a few months back don't look very smart now, do they?

But most likely, there will be some sort of crash somewhere in the other markets at which point people will panic and run for exits, Bitcoin being one of them. Luxembourg is ready for a Cyprus style desaster, but on a very different magnitude. A war China/Japan can start any moment. Stock markets around the world are Black Fridays waiting to happen. Not even talking about the mother of all bubbles - our fiat money system. Any of that can send Bitcoin to Andromeda.

[cdtc]

I think that the current trend will continue like this for two weeks most and then it will rise again.

[BryanK]

Idk, i just look at the 2 year chart and see this bubble and its on the way down. To similar to the Tulip bubble

Unpredictable. Maybe the price will follow the standard bubble life cycle. Maybe people recognize that it's the 3rd bubble within little more than 2 years and learned not to sell at the bottom. Those people who sold @63 a few months back don't look very smart now, do they?

But most likely, there will be some sort of crash somewhere in the other markets at which point people will panic and run for exits, Bitcoin being one of them. Luxembourg is ready for a Cyprus style desaster, but on a very different magnitude. A war China/Japan can start any moment. Stock markets around the world are Black Fridays waiting to happen. Not even talking about the mother of all bubbles - our fiat money system. Any of that can send Bitcoin to Andromeda.

I do agree with your statement.

[Miz4r]

I think we were more or less consolidating, but with the recent news from China we've been pushed further into bearish territory for a while. I don't really believe in a prolonged bear market though, just a little bit of coin redistribution and tree shakin' before the next push upwards somewhere between January and April 2014.

[oda.krell]

I think we were more or less consolidating, but with the recent news from China we've been pushed further into bearish territory for a while. I don't really believe in a prolonged bear market though, just a little bit of coin redistribution and tree shakin' before the next push upwards somewhere between January and April 2014. :)

Best answer so far!


(and by "best" I mean: most similar to my own sentiment :P)

[dancupid]

Looks like we're heading back to the stagnant exponential growth trend of the last few years

Edit: added a comma

[diedicar]

in one month or so every china effect will be overcome. And then it's up to supply/ demand (With no supply at all, but al people hoarding like goblins in their caves.)