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Author Topic: I AM HODLING  (Read 793841 times)
LFC_Bitcoin
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June 12, 2015, 12:55:25 PM
 #1921

Still HODLING strong (not that I have any choice to do anything else).
I've been buying for 18 months now but because I bought a fair chunk when the price was like 500-600 USD there's no way I'm doing anything except HODLING for the forseeable future, no way am I willing to sell anything at a big loss.
Calmly HODLING for as long as I need to.


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June 17, 2015, 11:28:21 AM
 #1922

HODL!

That wise giant HODL from Game of Thrones deep in the dark valley of Bears where despair is to be found proclaims that there is hope! Stand Strong! HODL BTC! And though the Bears would tell our sweet bullish giant that "even he will tire" or to "calm down" or even "be quite" Hodl knows what's up.

Hodl tells you to HODL.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cxjw-w-V5k4
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June 17, 2015, 06:27:44 PM
 #1923

If you want to think about realistic prices, first think about the mining subsidy (currently 3600 coins created per day). Then compare the subsidy's USD value to the size of the bitcoin economy and demand for bitcoin.

3600 * 235 = $846,000

846,000 seems like a reasonably small number compared to the total trade volume.

When people start talking about $20,000 bitcoin valuations, even in the next reward era where 1800 coins are created per day, you have to wonder if they've done the math.

1800 * 20,000 = $36,000,000 per day bitcoin mining industry. How large does the bitcoin economy have to be where $36,000,000 (daily) is a reasonably small number compared to it?

I'm settling into the view that we need to wait several more halvings before such valuations are possible to be maintained. (Of course, a brief spike can go unimaginably high)




You are talking of a 50X increase in the bitcoin demand in the following years.... I think this isn' unrealistic at all...

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June 18, 2015, 03:49:23 AM
Last edit: June 18, 2015, 04:01:56 AM by jehst
 #1924

If you want to think about realistic prices, first think about the mining subsidy (currently 3600 coins created per day). Then compare the subsidy's USD value to the size of the bitcoin economy and demand for bitcoin.

3600 * 235 = $846,000

846,000 seems like a reasonably small number compared to the total trade volume.

When people start talking about $20,000 bitcoin valuations, even in the next reward era where 1800 coins are created per day, you have to wonder if they've done the math.

1800 * 20,000 = $36,000,000 per day bitcoin mining industry. How large does the bitcoin economy have to be where $36,000,000 (daily) is a reasonably small number compared to it?

I'm settling into the view that we need to wait several more halvings before such valuations are possible to be maintained. (Of course, a brief spike can go unimaginably high)




You are talking of a 50X increase in the bitcoin demand in the following years.... I think this isn' unrealistic at all...

That's certainly possible. I'm trying to be extremely conservative.

Let's look at how demand grew from 2012 to 2015. In 2012, bitcoin went sideways at $5 with a daily inflation in USD of around $72,000 per day. (3600*2*$5 = $36,000 per day). (Multiplied by two because the block reward was double.)

Now bitcoin goes sideways with a daily inflation in USD of around $846,000 per day. $846,000/$36,000 = 23.5x more daily demand after three years.

To be conservative, we should guess that the demand will grow more slowly now that bitcoin is bigger. Maybe it will "only" go up 11x in the next six years.  846,000 * 11 = $9,306,000 worth of demand per day. Block reward will be 900 bitcoins per day after two halvings.

$9,306,000 / 900 = $10,340 per bitcoin in 2021

With bubbles and crashes along the way. A brief spike to $20,000 or $50,000 before 2021 wouldn't be terribly surprising.


Year 2021
Bitcoin Supply: ~90% mined
Supply Inflation: <1.8%
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June 18, 2015, 09:59:29 AM
 #1925

Still HODLING strong (not that I have any choice to do anything else).
I've been buying for 18 months now but because I bought a fair chunk when the price was like 500-600 USD there's no way I'm doing anything except HODLING for the forseeable future, no way am I willing to sell anything at a big loss.
Calmly HODLING for as long as I need to.

I never really why these people sell at a loss. It's easy to see the potential for bitcoin to get back to its previous high and even further, but people just need patience so I agree and think it's silly selling at a loss. I'd rather take the gamble and hold for mega profits in the future. These people will be kicking themselves if bitcoin goes to the moon again.
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June 18, 2015, 03:17:38 PM
 #1926


I never really why these people sell at a loss. It's easy to see the potential for bitcoin to get back to its previous high and even further, but people just need patience so I agree and think it's silly selling at a loss. I'd rather take the gamble and hold for mega profits in the future. These people will be kicking themselves if bitcoin goes to the moon again.

Emotion is an extraordinarily powerful thing. The best traders have conquered it and that's what they feed off in the markets. History is littered with people who gave up at the lowest moments.

The BTC market must feel like a gift from heaven to the pros because I'm sure it's many a holder's first dabble in any type of trading. They would be like lambs to the slaughter.
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June 18, 2015, 04:12:53 PM
 #1927

this is actually a very good point....the halving allow less dump from miners.....a balance has to be I suppose that the cost to secure the blochain has to be high enought o make it hard to be arbitrarily taken over. So even though that fugure may seem high whats the value proposition. Eg cash handleing and banking costs per day for the proportion of displaced business.

my back of post card calcs say there about 1 million bank branches in the world....and they probally cost 1 mill each per year to run. so $38 perday per bank branch is not so much.

If I am out by and order of magnitude then $380 bucks per day seems ok as well per bank branch.

Do i think btc can take a good percentage of bank and related costs for money handling probably.

of course this is where POS comes in and high value backbone, so peercoin may be the answer here, where mining = 0$ or near that.


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June 18, 2015, 11:57:28 PM
 #1928


I never really why these people sell at a loss. It's easy to see the potential for bitcoin to get back to its previous high and even further, but people just need patience so I agree and think it's silly selling at a loss. I'd rather take the gamble and hold for mega profits in the future. These people will be kicking themselves if bitcoin goes to the moon again.

Emotion is an extraordinarily powerful thing. The best traders have conquered it and that's what they feed off in the markets. History is littered with people who gave up at the lowest moments.

The BTC market must feel like a gift from heaven to the pros because I'm sure it's many a holder's first dabble in any type of trading. They would be like lambs to the slaughter.
Temptation will kill so many holders that have a long ter mindset, we are ahead of so many lucrative bubbles that statistically, most (and I hope im not one of them) will sell way to early, when we think we sold at the top.
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June 19, 2015, 12:07:45 AM
 #1929


Temptation will kill so many holders that have a long ter mindset, we are ahead of so many lucrative bubbles that statistically, most (and I hope im not one of them) will sell way to early, when we think we sold at the top.

Nothing wrong with taking out an amount that feels satisfying at the time. Life is short. Waiting around until you're 75 to max your gains is the wrong move.

I guess the best thing is settle that figure in your mind, keep back a certain amount of coinage back just in case and take the plunge at the right moment.
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June 19, 2015, 01:12:37 AM
 #1930

I don't think there will be a "top." Over time, the supply of fiat currency will keep growing faster and faster and bitcoin's supply is going to grow slower and slower. And bitcoin will become more and more useful.

But as gentlemand said, we can only live so long. If bitcoin goes to 10k within the next 6 years, I'm not going to hold on to every coin waiting for 100k per bitcoin before I start buying things.

Year 2021
Bitcoin Supply: ~90% mined
Supply Inflation: <1.8%
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June 19, 2015, 03:32:59 AM
 #1931

I'm seriously thinking of unhodling a few bitcoins. Looks like another roller coaster ride is coming.

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June 19, 2015, 06:19:58 AM
 #1932

im choice to holding bitcoin and see what happen with bitcoin price. if still stable price, i will sell my bitcoin and maybe not help for bitcoin grows in the future

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July 01, 2015, 02:16:16 PM
 #1933

I'm seriously thinking of unhodling a few bitcoins. Looks like another roller coaster ride is coming.





*edit* need a good sized picture of just girlfriend from the boyfriend girlfriend memes. could put them all togather and it would be quite hilarious.


Forgive my petulance and oft-times, I fear, ill-founded criticisms, and forgive me that I have, by this time, made your eyes and head ache with my long letter. But I cannot forgo hastily the pleasure and pride of thus conversing with you.
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July 01, 2015, 04:14:18 PM
 #1934

HODLOR! HODLOR!

GAMES OF THRONES REFERENCE. NICE. I like this post and how the guy has taken the efforts to write down his shit and express his emotions while having his whiskey. Accepting things which no sober man would, I did have a smile on my face while going through his writings on his moments of despair. The best line however would be,'Sue me...only if it is payable in btc'.
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July 10, 2015, 06:27:46 PM
 #1935

Still HODLING strong (not that I have any choice to do anything else).
I've been buying for 18 months now but because I bought a fair chunk when the price was like 500-600 USD there's no way I'm doing anything except HODLING for the forseeable future, no way am I willing to sell anything at a big loss.
Calmly HODLING for as long as I need to.
Exactly. True believers don't care, they just watch their wealth grow over the years (not days).
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July 10, 2015, 06:55:33 PM
 #1936

Still HODLING strong (not that I have any choice to do anything else).
I've been buying for 18 months now but because I bought a fair chunk when the price was like 500-600 USD there's no way I'm doing anything except HODLING for the forseeable future, no way am I willing to sell anything at a big loss.
Calmly HODLING for as long as I need to.
Exactly. True believers don't care, they just watch their wealth grow over the years (not days).

Don't tell that to the fanatical trading cultists.   Cheesy
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July 10, 2015, 07:12:37 PM
 #1937

My HODLer's chart, showing dates I've loaded up and DCA. Exciting to be nearly in the black after so long!

https://www.tradingview.com/x/nezk5TeI/
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July 10, 2015, 11:53:26 PM
 #1938

The one thing that I can't figure out, as a hodler, is what to do during the euphoric buying phase. It seems like a good time to sell, on the one hand, and yet Bitcoin is still so far from its full potential on the other.
Cheesy
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July 10, 2015, 11:56:08 PM
 #1939

The one thing that I can't figure out, as a hodler, is what to do during the euphoric buying phase. It seems like a good time to sell, on the one hand, and yet Bitcoin is still so far from its full potential on the other.
Cheesy

Now is a good time to plan ahead. 

I believe that a good place to look for some advice on making a good plan is this classic thread: 

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=345065.0

1BitcHiCK1iRa6YVY6qDqC6M594RBYLNPo
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July 10, 2015, 11:58:13 PM
 #1940

The one thing that I can't figure out, as a hodler, is what to do during the euphoric buying phase. It seems like a good time to sell, on the one hand, and yet Bitcoin is still so far from its full potential on the other.
Cheesy

Now is a good time to plan ahead. 

I believe that a good place to look for some advice on making a good plan is this classic thread: 

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=345065.0

+1

Just remember-  buy low, sell high  Wink
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