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Author Topic: I AM HODLING  (Read 791403 times)
mudiko
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June 04, 2015, 11:26:15 AM
 #1921

Sold at 1000 dollar and im happy with that
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The Bitcoin Forum is turning 10 years old! Join the community in sharing and exploring the notable posts made over the years.
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June 04, 2015, 12:43:22 PM
 #1922

i was thinking about selling some of my coins but the recent drops in price and the way the market looks, i don't know anymore what to do.
currently i am holding and i think it is the best decision so far, for now.

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June 04, 2015, 11:46:19 PM
 #1923

If you want to think about realistic prices, first think about the mining subsidy (currently 3600 coins created per day). Then compare the subsidy's USD value to the size of the bitcoin economy and demand for bitcoin.

3600 * 235 = $846,000

846,000 seems like a reasonably small number compared to the total trade volume.

When people start talking about $20,000 bitcoin valuations, even in the next reward era where 1800 coins are created per day, you have to wonder if they've done the math.

1800 * 20,000 = $36,000,000 per day bitcoin mining industry. How large does the bitcoin economy have to be where $36,000,000 (daily) is a reasonably small number compared to it?

I'm settling into the view that we need to wait several more halvings before such valuations are possible to be maintained. (Of course, a brief spike can go unimaginably high)




Are you also adding the lost coins, and scam coins as well?

Cause that also effects the price toll on bitcoin, since those coins cant be mined or found again.

I don't think anywhere near 25 coins are lost every 10 minutes. Coins being lost might start to matter when the reward goes down to single digits.

Year 2021
Bitcoin Supply: ~90% mined
Supply Inflation: <1.8%
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June 05, 2015, 01:12:45 AM
 #1924

If you want to think about realistic prices, first think about the mining subsidy (currently 3600 coins created per day). Then compare the subsidy's USD value to the size of the bitcoin economy and demand for bitcoin.

3600 * 235 = $846,000

846,000 seems like a reasonably small number compared to the total trade volume.

When people start talking about $20,000 bitcoin valuations, even in the next reward era where 1800 coins are created per day, you have to wonder if they've done the math.

1800 * 20,000 = $36,000,000 per day bitcoin mining industry. How large does the bitcoin economy have to be where $36,000,000 (daily) is a reasonably small number compared to it?

I'm settling into the view that we need to wait several more halvings before such valuations are possible to be maintained. (Of course, a brief spike can go unimaginably high)



Are you also adding the lost coins, and scam coins as well?

Cause that also effects the price toll on bitcoin, since those coins cant be mined or found again.


Scam coins are not lost coins, the scammers dump them on btc-e or somewhere else. People usually scam to earn money, if they couldn't spend, they would not scam.

And I doubt that anything near 25 btc/day is lost or destroyed.

So I guess the net effect is low

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June 11, 2015, 01:00:52 AM
 #1925

I would definitely hold a majority of my coins for several years to see how much growth really happens with Bitcoin.

 
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June 11, 2015, 02:05:31 AM
 #1926

Its not people who hold that really matter with a coin system such as bitcoin.   Those who actually use it as a means of exchange over the world especially on fast velocity transactions, they create value and likely determine where the coin is headed in future.    

If we all just held the coin and thats it, just smoked a pipe dreaming of what it could be worth then its value is essentially zero at that time and my guess in future for all time also.   You want to know the btc price in years then ask those actually use it most.  If its not useful to its users, its not valued is likely how it goes

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June 11, 2015, 07:50:32 PM
 #1927

I have just primarily been sitting on my holdings for about the last year without buying too many more.

I spend some coins every once in awhile and just replenish what I have spent.   Still in it for the long haul, but I miss those days of excitement being glued to the charts...
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June 12, 2015, 12:03:50 PM
 #1928

i'm holding too, and i'm forced to do it, because i did not have a great amount for now, and i don't want to lose my little wallet in gambling or trading, i could start maybe some activity to increase my balance, but with all that i have to do it is better to just hold and hoping for the best, many are doing this and they will be rewarded in the end, like those that were holding before the last big bubble



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June 12, 2015, 12:55:25 PM
 #1929

Still HODLING strong (not that I have any choice to do anything else).
I've been buying for 18 months now but because I bought a fair chunk when the price was like 500-600 USD there's no way I'm doing anything except HODLING for the forseeable future, no way am I willing to sell anything at a big loss.
Calmly HODLING for as long as I need to.

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June 17, 2015, 11:28:21 AM
 #1930

HODL!

That wise giant HODL from Game of Thrones deep in the dark valley of Bears where despair is to be found proclaims that there is hope! Stand Strong! HODL BTC! And though the Bears would tell our sweet bullish giant that "even he will tire" or to "calm down" or even "be quite" Hodl knows what's up.

Hodl tells you to HODL.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cxjw-w-V5k4
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June 17, 2015, 06:27:44 PM
 #1931

If you want to think about realistic prices, first think about the mining subsidy (currently 3600 coins created per day). Then compare the subsidy's USD value to the size of the bitcoin economy and demand for bitcoin.

3600 * 235 = $846,000

846,000 seems like a reasonably small number compared to the total trade volume.

When people start talking about $20,000 bitcoin valuations, even in the next reward era where 1800 coins are created per day, you have to wonder if they've done the math.

1800 * 20,000 = $36,000,000 per day bitcoin mining industry. How large does the bitcoin economy have to be where $36,000,000 (daily) is a reasonably small number compared to it?

I'm settling into the view that we need to wait several more halvings before such valuations are possible to be maintained. (Of course, a brief spike can go unimaginably high)




You are talking of a 50X increase in the bitcoin demand in the following years.... I think this isn' unrealistic at all...

Roll a dice FOR FREE every hour, and win up to $200 in btc ---> CLICK HERE

Tip me using the LIGHTING NETWORK! -->https://tippin.me/@Erre96344121
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June 18, 2015, 03:49:23 AM
Last edit: June 18, 2015, 04:01:56 AM by jehst
 #1932

If you want to think about realistic prices, first think about the mining subsidy (currently 3600 coins created per day). Then compare the subsidy's USD value to the size of the bitcoin economy and demand for bitcoin.

3600 * 235 = $846,000

846,000 seems like a reasonably small number compared to the total trade volume.

When people start talking about $20,000 bitcoin valuations, even in the next reward era where 1800 coins are created per day, you have to wonder if they've done the math.

1800 * 20,000 = $36,000,000 per day bitcoin mining industry. How large does the bitcoin economy have to be where $36,000,000 (daily) is a reasonably small number compared to it?

I'm settling into the view that we need to wait several more halvings before such valuations are possible to be maintained. (Of course, a brief spike can go unimaginably high)




You are talking of a 50X increase in the bitcoin demand in the following years.... I think this isn' unrealistic at all...

That's certainly possible. I'm trying to be extremely conservative.

Let's look at how demand grew from 2012 to 2015. In 2012, bitcoin went sideways at $5 with a daily inflation in USD of around $72,000 per day. (3600*2*$5 = $36,000 per day). (Multiplied by two because the block reward was double.)

Now bitcoin goes sideways with a daily inflation in USD of around $846,000 per day. $846,000/$36,000 = 23.5x more daily demand after three years.

To be conservative, we should guess that the demand will grow more slowly now that bitcoin is bigger. Maybe it will "only" go up 11x in the next six years.  846,000 * 11 = $9,306,000 worth of demand per day. Block reward will be 900 bitcoins per day after two halvings.

$9,306,000 / 900 = $10,340 per bitcoin in 2021

With bubbles and crashes along the way. A brief spike to $20,000 or $50,000 before 2021 wouldn't be terribly surprising.


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Bitcoin Supply: ~90% mined
Supply Inflation: <1.8%
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June 18, 2015, 09:59:29 AM
 #1933

Still HODLING strong (not that I have any choice to do anything else).
I've been buying for 18 months now but because I bought a fair chunk when the price was like 500-600 USD there's no way I'm doing anything except HODLING for the forseeable future, no way am I willing to sell anything at a big loss.
Calmly HODLING for as long as I need to.

I never really why these people sell at a loss. It's easy to see the potential for bitcoin to get back to its previous high and even further, but people just need patience so I agree and think it's silly selling at a loss. I'd rather take the gamble and hold for mega profits in the future. These people will be kicking themselves if bitcoin goes to the moon again.
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June 18, 2015, 03:17:38 PM
 #1934


I never really why these people sell at a loss. It's easy to see the potential for bitcoin to get back to its previous high and even further, but people just need patience so I agree and think it's silly selling at a loss. I'd rather take the gamble and hold for mega profits in the future. These people will be kicking themselves if bitcoin goes to the moon again.

Emotion is an extraordinarily powerful thing. The best traders have conquered it and that's what they feed off in the markets. History is littered with people who gave up at the lowest moments.

The BTC market must feel like a gift from heaven to the pros because I'm sure it's many a holder's first dabble in any type of trading. They would be like lambs to the slaughter.

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June 18, 2015, 04:12:53 PM
 #1935

this is actually a very good point....the halving allow less dump from miners.....a balance has to be I suppose that the cost to secure the blochain has to be high enought o make it hard to be arbitrarily taken over. So even though that fugure may seem high whats the value proposition. Eg cash handleing and banking costs per day for the proportion of displaced business.

my back of post card calcs say there about 1 million bank branches in the world....and they probally cost 1 mill each per year to run. so $38 perday per bank branch is not so much.

If I am out by and order of magnitude then $380 bucks per day seems ok as well per bank branch.

Do i think btc can take a good percentage of bank and related costs for money handling probably.

of course this is where POS comes in and high value backbone, so peercoin may be the answer here, where mining = 0$ or near that.


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June 18, 2015, 11:57:28 PM
 #1936


I never really why these people sell at a loss. It's easy to see the potential for bitcoin to get back to its previous high and even further, but people just need patience so I agree and think it's silly selling at a loss. I'd rather take the gamble and hold for mega profits in the future. These people will be kicking themselves if bitcoin goes to the moon again.

Emotion is an extraordinarily powerful thing. The best traders have conquered it and that's what they feed off in the markets. History is littered with people who gave up at the lowest moments.

The BTC market must feel like a gift from heaven to the pros because I'm sure it's many a holder's first dabble in any type of trading. They would be like lambs to the slaughter.
Temptation will kill so many holders that have a long ter mindset, we are ahead of so many lucrative bubbles that statistically, most (and I hope im not one of them) will sell way to early, when we think we sold at the top.
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June 19, 2015, 12:07:45 AM
 #1937


Temptation will kill so many holders that have a long ter mindset, we are ahead of so many lucrative bubbles that statistically, most (and I hope im not one of them) will sell way to early, when we think we sold at the top.

Nothing wrong with taking out an amount that feels satisfying at the time. Life is short. Waiting around until you're 75 to max your gains is the wrong move.

I guess the best thing is settle that figure in your mind, keep back a certain amount of coinage back just in case and take the plunge at the right moment.

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June 19, 2015, 01:12:37 AM
 #1938

I don't think there will be a "top." Over time, the supply of fiat currency will keep growing faster and faster and bitcoin's supply is going to grow slower and slower. And bitcoin will become more and more useful.

But as gentlemand said, we can only live so long. If bitcoin goes to 10k within the next 6 years, I'm not going to hold on to every coin waiting for 100k per bitcoin before I start buying things.

Year 2021
Bitcoin Supply: ~90% mined
Supply Inflation: <1.8%
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June 19, 2015, 03:32:59 AM
 #1939

I'm seriously thinking of unhodling a few bitcoins. Looks like another roller coaster ride is coming.

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June 19, 2015, 06:19:58 AM
 #1940

im choice to holding bitcoin and see what happen with bitcoin price. if still stable price, i will sell my bitcoin and maybe not help for bitcoin grows in the future

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