Bitcoin will plummet to $10 by first half of 2014

[cbeast]

[teukon]

[Bitcoin] has not been bear-market tested...

Bitcoin dropped 15-fold over 5 months in 2011.  Add a trip to the zoo to your general education todo list.

[bitpop]

It hasn't been bull tested as of yet

[chemicalbruva]

[Bitcoin] has not been bear-market tested...

Bitcoin dropped 15-fold over 5 months in 2011.  Add a trip to the zoo to your general education todo list.

I shall steal your quote and use it as my own! On a serious note, btc seems to shoot up in any fiat related crisis situation (eg- cyprus, renewed QE etc)

[ZooKeeper74]

I predict the influx of newer crypto currencies will continue to kill their predecessor.

Pretty shit idea that no one will want bitcoin in 12 months, doge will be all the rage.

[nodroids]

this guy just is way off base on all his facts as pointed out by all you fine Bitcoiniacs. We already got to %8000 + appreciation this year with half of exchanges shutting down, mostly before 2013 even got going. The exchanges that are up and running now are the longest running, less volatility there. Also there is a clear trend in less and less price volatility. I am amazed that we're at $700 + with China (the very source of this run up) and now India arresting exchange operators.

[skivrmt]

this guy just is way off base on all his facts as pointed out by all you fine Bitcoiniacs. We already got to %8000 + appreciation this year with half of exchanges shutting down, mostly before 2013 even got going. The exchanges that are up and running now are the longest running, less volatility there. Also there is a clear trend in less and less price volatility. I am amazed that we're at $700 + with China (the very source of this run up) and now India arresting exchange operators.

There was a lot of negative press and happenings in 2013 for XBT, but there was WAY more positive press.  And by positive, I don't mean each article being positive or pro XBT, I just mean press in genereal.  Cyprus University, Richard Branson, Overstock etc all accepting or moving to accept XBT is huge. 

Can it drop to $10 next year?  Sure, but I doubt it.  In 3 years times, it'll be $10 or $5,000+, all depends on so many factors including mainstream acceptance.  Risk to reward a these levels I think is pretty good.

[koosBR]

baseless in their arguments.

[pjviitas]

I hope your right, I have been waiting for this event for some time now.

[skivrmt]

I hope your right, I have been waiting for this event for some time now.

You hope he's right about it plummeting to $10 next year?  Because you don't believe in Bitcoin or you would like to buy at a lower price?  If XBT ever gets to $10 again it will be because something fairly catastrophic has happened and will probably never recover again. 

[U1TRA_L0RD]

I dont really see a jump in price yet, maybe its going to be like this for the next few months or so??

[pjviitas]

Cheaper Bitcoin would be nice then maybe I could get a few and make it easier to spend a few.

Why would you say that a collapse in the price of Bitcoin would be the end of it?

I would think that a collapse would shake off a lot of the speculators out there which would be a good thing I would think.

Not just that, Bitcoin seems to be catching too much media right now...makes people nervous.

[bgman]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-26/probability-stock-market-crash-soaring

Bitcoin will go to the moon in terms of dollars...

[skivrmt]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-26/probability-stock-market-crash-soaring

Bitcoin will go to the moon in terms of dollars...

Will the stock market have a correction?  Of course.  5-10% at some point, it always does.  Do I forsee another 2001 or 2008 anytime soon?  No.  Simple based on valuations.  The stock market was overpriced in 2001 and 2008.  It is -getting- overpriced slightly right now, but companies continue to surpass earnings.  I don't think we'll see a "crash" like the site predicts in 2014. 

That being said I still think we'll see a nice steady climb in XBT next year...

[U1TRA_L0RD]

Cheaper Bitcoin would be nice then maybe I could get a few and make it easier to spend a few.

Why would you say that a collapse in the price of Bitcoin would be the end of it?

I would think that a collapse would shake off a lot of the speculators out there which would be a good thing I would think.

Not just that, Bitcoin seems to be catching too much media right now...makes people nervous.

I agree, Buy more spend more then prices will fluctuate, Although, Im sorry I have to bring this up, those underground black markets have most of them tucked away greedy bastards.

[drewster]

by Victor Kerezov

Mark Williams, a risk management and capital markets professor at Boston University, is out with a bold call – he predicts that the price of one bitcoin will crash to $10 or even lower by the first half of 2014.
Williams is a risk management practitioner and academic with tw-decades of experience from working as a bank examiner at the US Federal Reserve to a commodities trading floor senior executive.
The finance professor observes that the buying and selling of the digital currency is “controlled by only a handful of exchanges in places like China, Slovenia and Bulgaria.” Exchange bankruptcies are not uncommon for the roller-coaster bitcoin market. In addition, the exchanges are based on a peer-to-peer model and regulation is virtually absent.
Bitcoin “has not been bear-market tested and if enough sellers try to run for the door it is not clear that existing infrastructure is capable of executing trade orders without significant time delays and price risk,” clarifies the former commodities trader.
Some bitcoin aficionados claim that the digital currency would replace the US dollar as the new global reserve currency, while others believe the digital form of money would provide a cheaper alternative to expensive payment platforms such as Western Union. “Adding more helium to the story, the Winklevoss twins of Facebook fame, not being shy about talking up their own book, predicted prices would rise to a staggering $40,000 per coin”, notes Williams
At the start of this month, bitcoin peaked at over $1,200 as “e-currency evangelists trumpeted the endless possibilities to be unleashed”. However, the price more than halved since then as the ‘Chinese regulatory pin’ burst the hyper bubble. In the view of the risk management expert, “the market has finally realized that hype alone cannot support lofty prices”.
Mark Williams then goes on to say that every asset bubble has three phases: “growth, maturity and pop”. He believes that 2013 was the maturity stage and we are now entering the time when the bubble pops. “Ironically, China, the second largest economy in the world, helped push Bitcoin prices to the clouds and now is pulling prices back to earth,” observes the former Fed bank examiner. In the last two weeks, the People’s Bank of China banned local banks from accepting the digital currency and then forbade third-party firms from transacting with bitcoin exchanges. In between the two announcement, Baidu, China’s Google equivalent, announced it would no longer accept bitcoins. Other major central banks and banking watch-dogs have taken a similar position like the PBoC, warning against the risks of the e-currency.

Williams then goes to proclaim that “if bitcoin was allowed to proliferate as a currency it would produce greater economic uncertainty, reduced trade and lower individual standard of living.” Retailers typically work on tight margins and the immense volatility of the e-currency could eliminate all their profit or even result in losses. In this bitcoin world of uncertainty and risk, commerce would ultimately decline and stone-age bartering would increase. “Naturally, as bitcoin price swings increased, the number of businesses willing to accept e-currency risk would decline”, assumes the former commodities trader.
“Bitcoin is not a legitimate currency but simply a risky virtual commodity bet”, argues the academic at Boston University. Even Winklevii’s call that it is a commodity currency may be unfounded because the wannabe currency does not have a tangible value like gold, which is a widely accepted alternative form of money.
Bitcoin is just backed by dreams and it is “only worth what people are willing to pay”, opines the former Fed bank examiner. “As it becomes increasingly evident that Bitcoin will not be the global currency standard, but simply a novel idea that will be improved upon by more nimble competitors such as Litecoin, restrictions and new regulations will be imposed and prices will plummet.”
“I predict that Bitcoin will trade for under $10 a share by the first half of 2014, single digit pricing reflecting its option value as a pure commodity play”, concludes Mark Williams.

http://invezz.com/news/forex/7726-bitcoin-usd-will-plummet-to-dollar-10-by-first-half-of-2014-predicts-risk-management-expert

I am personally a big fan of making brash and bold predictions, because they are a no-lose situation. If you are wrong, as most suspect, your crazy proclamations are quickly forgotten. On the other hand, if you happen to be right, everyone will be impressed and amazed.

In this post I am immediately drawn to the words that are included to create credibility: professor, University, executive, trading floor, risk management, federal Reserve, platforms, bank examiner, senior executive.

Removing all the extraneous tripe and drivel, there's no new opinions here we haven't heard dozens of times before. The two most misguided ones are:

1- bitcoin will never be seriously used by businesses because it's too volatile

2- infrastructure is not enough to support widespread use

First, as a "commodities floor senior executive", certainly you've heard that "past performance is not a guarantee of future returns".  

Yes Btc has been recently volatile. As a commodity, Btc is only a bit more volatile than gold. It is currently quite illiquid, but that is improving almost every day. Many services already will auto-hedge to fiat for businesses. As such, this will end up as a non-issue. If Btc continues to grow as a reserve currency, which it really could since just about every country spends every day trying to devalue their currency, volatility will continually become more dampened, further increasing the desire to hold Btc assets, and further supporting the price.

The infrastructure comment is just retarded.  Obviously if Btc grows to wide worldwide adoption, the infrastructure will grow with it.

[U1TRA_L0RD]

by Victor Kerezov

Mark Williams, a risk management and capital markets professor at Boston University, is out with a bold call – he predicts that the price of one bitcoin will crash to $10 or even lower by the first half of 2014.
Williams is a risk management practitioner and academic with tw-decades of experience from working as a bank examiner at the US Federal Reserve to a commodities trading floor senior executive.
The finance professor observes that the buying and selling of the digital currency is “controlled by only a handful of exchanges in places like China, Slovenia and Bulgaria.” Exchange bankruptcies are not uncommon for the roller-coaster bitcoin market. In addition, the exchanges are based on a peer-to-peer model and regulation is virtually absent.
Bitcoin “has not been bear-market tested and if enough sellers try to run for the door it is not clear that existing infrastructure is capable of executing trade orders without significant time delays and price risk,” clarifies the former commodities trader.
Some bitcoin aficionados claim that the digital currency would replace the US dollar as the new global reserve currency, while others believe the digital form of money would provide a cheaper alternative to expensive payment platforms such as Western Union. “Adding more helium to the story, the Winklevoss twins of Facebook fame, not being shy about talking up their own book, predicted prices would rise to a staggering $40,000 per coin”, notes Williams
At the start of this month, bitcoin peaked at over $1,200 as “e-currency evangelists trumpeted the endless possibilities to be unleashed”. However, the price more than halved since then as the ‘Chinese regulatory pin’ burst the hyper bubble. In the view of the risk management expert, “the market has finally realized that hype alone cannot support lofty prices”.
Mark Williams then goes on to say that every asset bubble has three phases: “growth, maturity and pop”. He believes that 2013 was the maturity stage and we are now entering the time when the bubble pops. “Ironically, China, the second largest economy in the world, helped push Bitcoin prices to the clouds and now is pulling prices back to earth,” observes the former Fed bank examiner. In the last two weeks, the People’s Bank of China banned local banks from accepting the digital currency and then forbade third-party firms from transacting with bitcoin exchanges. In between the two announcement, Baidu, China’s Google equivalent, announced it would no longer accept bitcoins. Other major central banks and banking watch-dogs have taken a similar position like the PBoC, warning against the risks of the e-currency.

Williams then goes to proclaim that “if bitcoin was allowed to proliferate as a currency it would produce greater economic uncertainty, reduced trade and lower individual standard of living.” Retailers typically work on tight margins and the immense volatility of the e-currency could eliminate all their profit or even result in losses. In this bitcoin world of uncertainty and risk, commerce would ultimately decline and stone-age bartering would increase. “Naturally, as bitcoin price swings increased, the number of businesses willing to accept e-currency risk would decline”, assumes the former commodities trader.
“Bitcoin is not a legitimate currency but simply a risky virtual commodity bet”, argues the academic at Boston University. Even Winklevii’s call that it is a commodity currency may be unfounded because the wannabe currency does not have a tangible value like gold, which is a widely accepted alternative form of money.
Bitcoin is just backed by dreams and it is “only worth what people are willing to pay”, opines the former Fed bank examiner. “As it becomes increasingly evident that Bitcoin will not be the global currency standard, but simply a novel idea that will be improved upon by more nimble competitors such as Litecoin, restrictions and new regulations will be imposed and prices will plummet.”
“I predict that Bitcoin will trade for under $10 a share by the first half of 2014, single digit pricing reflecting its option value as a pure commodity play”, concludes Mark Williams.

http://invezz.com/news/forex/7726-bitcoin-usd-will-plummet-to-dollar-10-by-first-half-of-2014-predicts-risk-management-expert

I am personally a big fan of making brash and bold predictions, because they are a no-lose situation. If you are wrong, as most suspect, your crazy proclamations are quickly forgotten. On the other hand, if you happen to be right, everyone will be impressed and amazed.

In this post I am immediately drawn to the words that are included to create credibility: professor, University, executive, trading floor, risk management, federal Reserve, platforms, bank examiner, senior executive.

Removing all the extraneous tripe and drivel, there's no new opinions here we haven't heard dozens of times before. The two most misguided ones are:

1- bitcoin will never be seriously used by businesses because it's too volatile

2- infrastructure is not enough to support widespread use

First, as a "commodities floor senior executive", certainly you've heard that "past performance is not a guarantee of future returns".  

Yes Btc has been recently volatile. As a commodity, Btc is only a bit more volatile than gold. It is currently quite illiquid, but that is improving almost every day. Many services already will auto-hedge to fiat for businesses. As such, this will end up as a non-issue. If Btc continues to grow as a reserve currency, which it really could since just about every country spends every day trying to devalue their currency, volatility will continually become more dampened, further increasing the desire to hold Btc assets, and further supporting the price.

The infrastructure comment is just retarded.  Obviously if Btc grows to wide worldwide adoption, the infrastructure will grow with it.

How do you suppose we do that after all the mumbo jumbo news media put on bitcoins? As in other words "Criminal Currency"

[Swordsoffreedom]

Enters 2014 10 Dollar Never Get in Q1 2014 

[TradeAnalyst]

I would love to see each BTC for 10-13 USD as I saw them the first time during my winter vacation in USA in January 2013 and where I was a complete idiot not to buy at least 100 ...by now I would of been quite OK because I would of followed the charts and I would of bought about 1000 in February 2013 !

> I cannot be anymore because BTC is ideal for tax evasion beside all the other utility of it  > as paying my pet dog training services in BTC

I am a precursor in Europe and possibly in the world  being the first pet dog trainer and pet behaviorist to accept it   so this the only reason  why BTC will not be at 10 USD in 2014 !!

and any serious analyst with full degree of education  should review my statement before publishing stupid predictions

Richard
www.psychodog.org

[BitchicksHusband]

Bitcoin will plummet to $10 by first half of 2014

We're finally switching to mBTC?!?