Bitcoin will plummet to $10 by first half of 2014

[RodeoX]

Guys, he's an economist. He knows better than us. If he says the price is $10, we must just be reading the charts wrong.

[Harley997]

To "less than 10$" guy:

Tick tock motherfucker! Tick, fucking tock!

He was asked to put some money where he's mouth are....he chickened out. That's all you need to know about him. Man that does not stand behind his words.

lmao...I wouldn't be at all surprised if he's setting up his coinbase account right now and buying whatever bitcoin he can!

I would just like to see him now...hear his answers when his students ask him about this...seeing him swet, knowing he turned out to be really stupid.

Most professors do not even answer questions asked by students, instead they delegate that to the TAs.

He probably got some kind of grant for what he said and is wasting students' money

[pjviitas]

by Victor Kerezov

Mark Williams, a risk management and capital markets professor at Boston University, is out with a bold call – he predicts that the price of one bitcoin will crash to $10 or even lower by the first half of 2014.
Williams is a risk management practitioner and academic with tw-decades of experience from working as a bank examiner at the US Federal Reserve to a commodities trading floor senior executive.
The finance professor observes that the buying and selling of the digital currency is “controlled by only a handful of exchanges in places like China, Slovenia and Bulgaria.” Exchange bankruptcies are not uncommon for the roller-coaster bitcoin market. In addition, the exchanges are based on a peer-to-peer model and regulation is virtually absent.
Bitcoin “has not been bear-market tested and if enough sellers try to run for the door it is not clear that existing infrastructure is capable of executing trade orders without significant time delays and price risk,” clarifies the former commodities trader.
Some bitcoin aficionados claim that the digital currency would replace the US dollar as the new global reserve currency, while others believe the digital form of money would provide a cheaper alternative to expensive payment platforms such as Western Union. “Adding more helium to the story, the Winklevoss twins of Facebook fame, not being shy about talking up their own book, predicted prices would rise to a staggering $40,000 per coin”, notes Williams
At the start of this month, bitcoin peaked at over $1,200 as “e-currency evangelists trumpeted the endless possibilities to be unleashed”. However, the price more than halved since then as the ‘Chinese regulatory pin’ burst the hyper bubble. In the view of the risk management expert, “the market has finally realized that hype alone cannot support lofty prices”.
Mark Williams then goes on to say that every asset bubble has three phases: “growth, maturity and pop”. He believes that 2013 was the maturity stage and we are now entering the time when the bubble pops. “Ironically, China, the second largest economy in the world, helped push Bitcoin prices to the clouds and now is pulling prices back to earth,” observes the former Fed bank examiner. In the last two weeks, the People’s Bank of China banned local banks from accepting the digital currency and then forbade third-party firms from transacting with bitcoin exchanges. In between the two announcement, Baidu, China’s Google equivalent, announced it would no longer accept bitcoins. Other major central banks and banking watch-dogs have taken a similar position like the PBoC, warning against the risks of the e-currency.

Williams then goes to proclaim that “if bitcoin was allowed to proliferate as a currency it would produce greater economic uncertainty, reduced trade and lower individual standard of living.” Retailers typically work on tight margins and the immense volatility of the e-currency could eliminate all their profit or even result in losses. In this bitcoin world of uncertainty and risk, commerce would ultimately decline and stone-age bartering would increase. “Naturally, as bitcoin price swings increased, the number of businesses willing to accept e-currency risk would decline”, assumes the former commodities trader.
“Bitcoin is not a legitimate currency but simply a risky virtual commodity bet”, argues the academic at Boston University. Even Winklevii’s call that it is a commodity currency may be unfounded because the wannabe currency does not have a tangible value like gold, which is a widely accepted alternative form of money.
Bitcoin is just backed by dreams and it is “only worth what people are willing to pay”, opines the former Fed bank examiner. “As it becomes increasingly evident that Bitcoin will not be the global currency standard, but simply a novel idea that will be improved upon by more nimble competitors such as Litecoin, restrictions and new regulations will be imposed and prices will plummet.”
“I predict that Bitcoin will trade for under $10 a share by the first half of 2014, single digit pricing reflecting its option value as a pure commodity play”, concludes Mark Williams.

http://invezz.com/news/forex/7726-bitcoin-usd-will-plummet-to-dollar-10-by-first-half-of-2014-predicts-risk-management-expert

Plenty examples of smart people making bad predictions.

http://www.cracked.com/photoplasty_777_26-hilariously-inaccurate-predictions-about-future/

http://www.news.com.au/technology/gadgets/famous-predictions-that-were-spectacularly-wrong/story-fn6vihic-1226889769437

http://www.rinkworks.com/said/predictions.shtml

http://www.businessinsider.com/false-predictons-2012-5?op=1

http://www.buzzfeed.com/lukelewis/26-shockingly-bad-predictions

[bitbouillion]

I made a bet for mr. bitcorn:

___________

$10 Bitcoin by June 30th, 2014Options: Yes | No

This bet has been cancelled!
Reason: Only one person bet on it  

[JorgeStolfi]

This bet has been cancelled!
Reason: Only one person bet on it  

Wait, we still have 2 days to go.  Did you see that red spike at Huobi, around 12:52 UTC -- the price going down 10% in a single trade? One minute of such trading is all it would take to reach $10.  (Unfortunately, that spike was later declared a glitch and erased from the charts, but even so it scared many traders into real dumping.  You may still see comments about it on the Wall Observer thread of this forum.  And, anyway, it is the spirit that matters.)

By the way, "the first half of 2014" is more like July 1st or July 2nd, since February had only 28 days and there is one extra 31-day month after July.  So there is plenty of time yet.

I would love to see that profs's face when the price falls to $11 on June 30 but stays there until July 3rd before dropping to $10.  He will be the laughing stock of his university and of all economists in the world, har har.

   ( <--- do I need to put this here? )

[moreia]

And so the first half nearly finishes and Bitcoin is strong @ $570~
Stay strong Bitcoin!

[Yakamoto]

I bet $50 that BTC will trade above $550 by July 1st 2014.

Any takers?

[kerafym]

I bet $50 that BTC will trade above $550 by July 1st 2014.

Any takers?

Let you know before July 1st.

[Yakamoto]

I bet $50 that BTC will trade above $550 by July 1st 2014.

Any takers?

Let you know before July 1st.

What do you mean? You'll let me know if you accept it, or what?

[Wolf Rainer]

Guys, he's an economist. He knows better than us. If he says the price is $10, we must just be reading the charts wrong.

Sure, he is an economist, so he know better than us how to manipulate the market, seed the fear and try to protect the banks monopoly and slavery system.

[BetMoose]

I bet $50 that BTC will trade above $550 by July 1st 2014.

Any takers?

We have a few bets on our side around the 600 mark which seems more contentious than $550, but if you want you can host your own on betmoose.com and put down your $50. If there are no takers, you'll get it back 100% and we pay miner fees so no loss.

[bigasic]

Bitcoin is a new invention. no one can predict how it will react. Maybe in 10 years from now, economists will get a grasp on the future of bitcoin.

[ShakyhandsBTCer]

Guys, he's an economist. He knows better than us. If he says the price is $10, we must just be reading the charts wrong.

Sure, he is an economist, so he know better than us how to manipulate the market, seed the fear and try to protect the banks monopoly and slavery system.

Just because he has some fancy degree or job title does not mean that he is correct in his logic.

[Adrian-x]

Guys, he's an economist. He knows better than us. If he says the price is $10, we must just be reading the charts wrong.

Sure, he is an economist, so he know better than us how to manipulate the market, seed the fear and try to protect the banks monopoly and slavery system.

Just because he has some fancy degree or job title does not mean that he is correct in his logic.

It doesn't sounds like logic but more like an agenda.

This article contains some fresh quotes from the good professor.

https://news.vice.com/article/silk-road-bitcoin-auction-opened-by-us-marshals-service

[JorgeStolfi]

This article contains some fresh quotes from the good professor.
https://news.vice.com/article/silk-road-bitcoin-auction-opened-by-us-marshals-service

It also has a quote by the Citibank analyst that seems rather naive.  No one here expects the 30'000 coins to be dumped on the market in a short time, right?

And the prof seems to assume that the auction price will be known right after the closing, but the USMS documents say that someone will have to submit a FOIA to get that information.  (Statements by participants cannot be trusted, they will care much about the effect on price.)

And the prof also claims that the USMS wants to auction the coins before they lose value, whereas I do not see any haste (the auction was authorized quite a while ago) and do not believe they would have that motivation (the USMS has no mandate or obligation to schedule auctions for maximum profit, all it cares is to have a fair auction with enough bidders).

[kireinaha]

Technically, it could still drop in value >98% in one day.

[Leina]

So less than 24 hours left?

[JorgeStolfi]

When exactly did that prof make his prediction?

[freedomno1]

So less than 24 hours left?

Yes, since it is the end of June in less than 24 hours we can conclusively say that we have kicked and burned this news article to the curb multiple times
Crash Burn Flames and all it is scorched

When exactly did that prof make his prediction?

Based on the article date I would say around mid December
Dec 19 2013 can't recall exactly but it seems about right for this.

[btc-zock]

NOOOOOOO, he was right! It will be worthless within hours!
Act fast, donate all your soon worthless BTC to:
15xqUR4bFvG255PKMqzA8tADCeQcH5tXkH
Hurry up, before the BTC will be completely worthless.