Bitcoin will plummet to $10 by first half of 2014

[Bit_Happy]

There were the same haters when bitcoin was less than $1. Now that the price has multiplied by 500x how many of those haters do you think have changed their tune? When the price hits $100,000 and they missed the boat, they will bash bitcoin even more still, because they will be so angry they missed out. Just makes me smile

This user seems to be copy-pasting old posts of other users.  Reported.

Nice catch, but I'm curious how you spotted that, do you have an amazing memory? (which helped make the post seem familiar)

[JorgeStolfi]

This user seems to be copy-pasting old posts of other users.  Reported.

Nice catch, but I'm curious how you spotted that, do you have an amazing memory? (which helped make the post seem familiar)

He copy-pasted a post of mine on another thread.

It caught my attention because his ideas were uncommonly sensible and remarkably well-put. 

[Adrian-x]

This professor could not have been more wrong about this one.

Well, he could have said "50,000 USD by the end of Q2".  

but that was not what he was predicting. He was predicting that bitcoin would crash this year. It is did not. He was wrong.

The point is that his prediction "10$" was 1/60 of the actual price at the end of Q2 (~600$).  If he had said "50'000$", that prediction would be 83 times the actual price.

So his error woudl have been much bigger (in relative terms, that is, log scale) if he had said "50'000$" rather than "10$".  But in that case no one in this forum would have opened a thread to ridicule him, would they?  

He'd have to post in the wall observe if he wanted ridicule.
On the up side ideas are cheep let the good ones spread, no need to play idea police.

[kaiy]

Let this thread fade away gracefully.

I would consider closing it might be a good idea, but at bitcointalk.org most topics get left open.
It stands as evidence showing how wrong the Bears can be. 

OP should come back and say he was wrong and mods should CLOSE IT down

OP should never come back.
When he came back, he will find that they have committed such a grave mistake, he will be laughed at the

[tee-rex]

This user seems to be copy-pasting old posts of other users.  Reported.

Nice catch, but I'm curious how you spotted that, do you have an amazing memory? (which helped make the post seem familiar)

He copy-pasted a post of mine on another thread.

It caught my attention because his ideas were uncommonly sensible and remarkably well-put. 

I hope somebody would copy-paste my posts too! Aren't they sensible at least to attract attention of copy-pasters?

[Tbone123]

Well we have passed the first half of the year and still way over 10 ! Talk about sticking your neck out. Ha FAIL.

[rottentomatoes]

Aaand another failed prediction.

[LostDutchman]

by Victor Kerezov

Mark Williams, a risk management and capital markets professor at Boston University, is out with a bold call – he predicts that the price of one bitcoin will crash to $10 or even lower by the first half of 2014.
Williams is a risk management practitioner and academic with tw-decades of experience from working as a bank examiner at the US Federal Reserve to a commodities trading floor senior executive.
The finance professor observes that the buying and selling of the digital currency is “controlled by only a handful of exchanges in places like China, Slovenia and Bulgaria.” Exchange bankruptcies are not uncommon for the roller-coaster bitcoin market. In addition, the exchanges are based on a peer-to-peer model and regulation is virtually absent.
Bitcoin “has not been bear-market tested and if enough sellers try to run for the door it is not clear that existing infrastructure is capable of executing trade orders without significant time delays and price risk,” clarifies the former commodities trader.
Some bitcoin aficionados claim that the digital currency would replace the US dollar as the new global reserve currency, while others believe the digital form of money would provide a cheaper alternative to expensive payment platforms such as Western Union. “Adding more helium to the story, the Winklevoss twins of Facebook fame, not being shy about talking up their own book, predicted prices would rise to a staggering $40,000 per coin”, notes Williams
At the start of this month, bitcoin peaked at over $1,200 as “e-currency evangelists trumpeted the endless possibilities to be unleashed”. However, the price more than halved since then as the ‘Chinese regulatory pin’ burst the hyper bubble. In the view of the risk management expert, “the market has finally realized that hype alone cannot support lofty prices”.
Mark Williams then goes on to say that every asset bubble has three phases: “growth, maturity and pop”. He believes that 2013 was the maturity stage and we are now entering the time when the bubble pops. “Ironically, China, the second largest economy in the world, helped push Bitcoin prices to the clouds and now is pulling prices back to earth,” observes the former Fed bank examiner. In the last two weeks, the People’s Bank of China banned local banks from accepting the digital currency and then forbade third-party firms from transacting with bitcoin exchanges. In between the two announcement, Baidu, China’s Google equivalent, announced it would no longer accept bitcoins. Other major central banks and banking watch-dogs have taken a similar position like the PBoC, warning against the risks of the e-currency.

Williams then goes to proclaim that “if bitcoin was allowed to proliferate as a currency it would produce greater economic uncertainty, reduced trade and lower individual standard of living.” Retailers typically work on tight margins and the immense volatility of the e-currency could eliminate all their profit or even result in losses. In this bitcoin world of uncertainty and risk, commerce would ultimately decline and stone-age bartering would increase. “Naturally, as bitcoin price swings increased, the number of businesses willing to accept e-currency risk would decline”, assumes the former commodities trader.
“Bitcoin is not a legitimate currency but simply a risky virtual commodity bet”, argues the academic at Boston University. Even Winklevii’s call that it is a commodity currency may be unfounded because the wannabe currency does not have a tangible value like gold, which is a widely accepted alternative form of money.
Bitcoin is just backed by dreams and it is “only worth what people are willing to pay”, opines the former Fed bank examiner. “As it becomes increasingly evident that Bitcoin will not be the global currency standard, but simply a novel idea that will be improved upon by more nimble competitors such as Litecoin, restrictions and new regulations will be imposed and prices will plummet.”
“I predict that Bitcoin will trade for under $10 a share by the first half of 2014, single digit pricing reflecting its option value as a pure commodity play”, concludes Mark Williams.

http://invezz.com/news/forex/7726-bitcoin-usd-will-plummet-to-dollar-10-by-first-half-of-2014-predicts-risk-management-expert

You lose!

Shoulda bet you like 1K bitcoins.

[Ivan Bitcoinowsky]

by Victor Kerezov

Mark Williams, a risk management and capital markets professor at Boston University, is out with a bold call – he predicts that the price of one bitcoin will crash to $10 or even lower by the first half of 2014.
Williams is a risk management practitioner and academic with tw-decades of experience from working as a bank examiner at the US Federal Reserve to a commodities trading floor senior executive.
The finance professor observes that the buying and selling of the digital currency is “controlled by only a handful of exchanges in places like China, Slovenia and Bulgaria.” Exchange bankruptcies are not uncommon for the roller-coaster bitcoin market. In addition, the exchanges are based on a peer-to-peer model and regulation is virtually absent.
Bitcoin “has not been bear-market tested and if enough sellers try to run for the door it is not clear that existing infrastructure is capable of executing trade orders without significant time delays and price risk,” clarifies the former commodities trader.
Some bitcoin aficionados claim that the digital currency would replace the US dollar as the new global reserve currency, while others believe the digital form of money would provide a cheaper alternative to expensive payment platforms such as Western Union. “Adding more helium to the story, the Winklevoss twins of Facebook fame, not being shy about talking up their own book, predicted prices would rise to a staggering $40,000 per coin”, notes Williams
At the start of this month, bitcoin peaked at over $1,200 as “e-currency evangelists trumpeted the endless possibilities to be unleashed”. However, the price more than halved since then as the ‘Chinese regulatory pin’ burst the hyper bubble. In the view of the risk management expert, “the market has finally realized that hype alone cannot support lofty prices”.
Mark Williams then goes on to say that every asset bubble has three phases: “growth, maturity and pop”. He believes that 2013 was the maturity stage and we are now entering the time when the bubble pops. “Ironically, China, the second largest economy in the world, helped push Bitcoin prices to the clouds and now is pulling prices back to earth,” observes the former Fed bank examiner. In the last two weeks, the People’s Bank of China banned local banks from accepting the digital currency and then forbade third-party firms from transacting with bitcoin exchanges. In between the two announcement, Baidu, China’s Google equivalent, announced it would no longer accept bitcoins. Other major central banks and banking watch-dogs have taken a similar position like the PBoC, warning against the risks of the e-currency.

Williams then goes to proclaim that “if bitcoin was allowed to proliferate as a currency it would produce greater economic uncertainty, reduced trade and lower individual standard of living.” Retailers typically work on tight margins and the immense volatility of the e-currency could eliminate all their profit or even result in losses. In this bitcoin world of uncertainty and risk, commerce would ultimately decline and stone-age bartering would increase. “Naturally, as bitcoin price swings increased, the number of businesses willing to accept e-currency risk would decline”, assumes the former commodities trader.
“Bitcoin is not a legitimate currency but simply a risky virtual commodity bet”, argues the academic at Boston University. Even Winklevii’s call that it is a commodity currency may be unfounded because the wannabe currency does not have a tangible value like gold, which is a widely accepted alternative form of money.
Bitcoin is just backed by dreams and it is “only worth what people are willing to pay”, opines the former Fed bank examiner. “As it becomes increasingly evident that Bitcoin will not be the global currency standard, but simply a novel idea that will be improved upon by more nimble competitors such as Litecoin, restrictions and new regulations will be imposed and prices will plummet.”
“I predict that Bitcoin will trade for under $10 a share by the first half of 2014, single digit pricing reflecting its option value as a pure commodity play”, concludes Mark Williams.

http://invezz.com/news/forex/7726-bitcoin-usd-will-plummet-to-dollar-10-by-first-half-of-2014-predicts-risk-management-expert

Poor guy didn't account for how long it take to pump out all that money, not collapse the bitcoin market (and so- loose part of your value) and avoid taxes at the same time.
But generally his points are quite valid. I want to see bitcoin price next year, "dis gon b gud".

[cryptworld]

This man was obviously wrong

[Candystripes]

This man was obviously wrong

Thread should be closed, the idiocy is too real.

[cbeast]

His name is Professor Bitcorn.

[LostDutchman]

by Victor Kerezov

Mark Williams, a risk management and capital markets professor at Boston University, is out with a bold call – he predicts that the price of one bitcoin will crash to $10 or even lower by the first half of 2014.
Williams is a risk management practitioner and academic with tw-decades of experience from working as a bank examiner at the US Federal Reserve to a commodities trading floor senior executive.
The finance professor observes that the buying and selling of the digital currency is “controlled by only a handful of exchanges in places like China, Slovenia and Bulgaria.” Exchange bankruptcies are not uncommon for the roller-coaster bitcoin market. In addition, the exchanges are based on a peer-to-peer model and regulation is virtually absent.
Bitcoin “has not been bear-market tested and if enough sellers try to run for the door it is not clear that existing infrastructure is capable of executing trade orders without significant time delays and price risk,” clarifies the former commodities trader.
Some bitcoin aficionados claim that the digital currency would replace the US dollar as the new global reserve currency, while others believe the digital form of money would provide a cheaper alternative to expensive payment platforms such as Western Union. “Adding more helium to the story, the Winklevoss twins of Facebook fame, not being shy about talking up their own book, predicted prices would rise to a staggering $40,000 per coin”, notes Williams
At the start of this month, bitcoin peaked at over $1,200 as “e-currency evangelists trumpeted the endless possibilities to be unleashed”. However, the price more than halved since then as the ‘Chinese regulatory pin’ burst the hyper bubble. In the view of the risk management expert, “the market has finally realized that hype alone cannot support lofty prices”.
Mark Williams then goes on to say that every asset bubble has three phases: “growth, maturity and pop”. He believes that 2013 was the maturity stage and we are now entering the time when the bubble pops. “Ironically, China, the second largest economy in the world, helped push Bitcoin prices to the clouds and now is pulling prices back to earth,” observes the former Fed bank examiner. In the last two weeks, the People’s Bank of China banned local banks from accepting the digital currency and then forbade third-party firms from transacting with bitcoin exchanges. In between the two announcement, Baidu, China’s Google equivalent, announced it would no longer accept bitcoins. Other major central banks and banking watch-dogs have taken a similar position like the PBoC, warning against the risks of the e-currency.

Williams then goes to proclaim that “if bitcoin was allowed to proliferate as a currency it would produce greater economic uncertainty, reduced trade and lower individual standard of living.” Retailers typically work on tight margins and the immense volatility of the e-currency could eliminate all their profit or even result in losses. In this bitcoin world of uncertainty and risk, commerce would ultimately decline and stone-age bartering would increase. “Naturally, as bitcoin price swings increased, the number of businesses willing to accept e-currency risk would decline”, assumes the former commodities trader.
“Bitcoin is not a legitimate currency but simply a risky virtual commodity bet”, argues the academic at Boston University. Even Winklevii’s call that it is a commodity currency may be unfounded because the wannabe currency does not have a tangible value like gold, which is a widely accepted alternative form of money.
Bitcoin is just backed by dreams and it is “only worth what people are willing to pay”, opines the former Fed bank examiner. “As it becomes increasingly evident that Bitcoin will not be the global currency standard, but simply a novel idea that will be improved upon by more nimble competitors such as Litecoin, restrictions and new regulations will be imposed and prices will plummet.”
“I predict that Bitcoin will trade for under $10 a share by the first half of 2014, single digit pricing reflecting its option value as a pure commodity play”, concludes Mark Williams.

http://invezz.com/news/forex/7726-bitcoin-usd-will-plummet-to-dollar-10-by-first-half-of-2014-predicts-risk-management-expert

FAIL!

[JorgeStolfi]

This man was obviously wrong

The price fell 60 dollars over the last 6 days, or 10 dollars per day (and accelerating).  It will reach zero in 56 more days (or less), that is, by mid-September.  So it will be "middle of Q3" instead of "end of Q2".  Terribly wrong. 

[Candystripes]

This man was obviously wrong

The price fell 60 dollars over the last 6 days, or 10 dollars per day (and accelerating).  It will reach zero in 56 more days (or less), that is, by mid-September.  So it will be "middle of Q3" instead of "end of Q2".  Terribly wrong. 

I honestly think the whole thread was a troll.

[cbeast]

This man was obviously wrong

The price fell 60 dollars over the last 6 days, or 10 dollars per day (and accelerating).  It will reach zero in 56 more days (or less), that is, by mid-September.  So it will be "middle of Q3" instead of "end of Q2".  Terribly wrong. 

It just went up one dollar in thirty seconds. If it continues at this rate in a month it will be over $86,000 

[NuclearNarwhal]

If Bitcoins do go that low, everyone will buy it then it will go back up.

[LostDutchman]

This man was obviously wrong

Ya fuckin' think?

[Nxtblg]

...Mark Williams then goes on to say that every asset bubble has three phases: “growth, maturity and pop”. He believes that 2013 was the maturity stage and we are now entering the time when the bubble pops. ...

FAIL!

But a revealing one. Back in 1998, I bought the then-new Contrarian Investment Strategies: The Next Generation by David Dreman. His "contrarian" strategy is essentially a low P/E strategy: its base is to confine your picks to the stocks that are in the lowest quintile of market P/Es while chopping out the small-cap issues. The strategy itself is great: I even gave a it fantasy-account real-time whirl from May '09 to May '10 at Marketocracy and it worked very well. The purely passive option - after chopping out the stocks with zero dividends and stocks with a dividend rate below the S&P 500's average dividend % - beat the S&P 500 handily and was in the top 20 percentile of fantasy accounts.

But...part of his training manual involves eschewing hot stocks. That gave his book a funny part in retrospect. In order to drum in the idea that chasing fad stocks is a sucker bet, he discussed bubbles past and popped. One of those bubbles was...the Internet bubble, which he implied had popped in 1997!

[Actually, a lot of mid-90s Internet IPOs like Yahoo! were decimated in late '97. One of them, Spyglass, never came back. At the time his book went to press, YHOO was still humbled.]

And that taught me a very important market lesson. People who are skeptical, rut-stuck but common-sensical - the ones who like to watch bubbles and handicap when they'll end while staying safely away - are good at spotting bubbles. But they always call the top of a bubble much, much earlier than the real top. In the case of 'ordinary' bubbles in the stock market, they call the top two to three years early. [Informed guesstimate.] With assets that raise emotions, like gold and (yes) Bitcoin, there's usually a bit of fud lurking in their heads so they tend to be significantly earlier than three years early.

I understand that the new meme in these parts is that crypto now is like the Internet itself as of ~1994. I not only agree with it, but I've also gotten several early-Internet tidbits that show what a good analogy it is. But the trouble is, when I buy into a concept I spend some time thinking about it.

And what I've been thinking in re the current meme is: if it holds up, there is going to be a rather big bubble in cryptocurrencies that will climax around 2020 or so.

Of course, that leaves six years for the analogy to break down, but...

[LostDutchman]

The guy was wrong!

What is it about that that you do not get?