Bitcoin will plummet to $10 by first half of 2014

[Swordsoffreedom]

I knew this thread was old before opening it 

Then stop opening it!

Lol I'm sure this joke will be well used for a while yet
At least until he makes his next prediction

[InwardContour]

I knew this thread was old before opening it 

Then stop opening it!

Lol I'm sure this joke will be well used for a while yet
At least until he makes his next prediction

Now we can follow the awesome predictions of falllling and laugh at them, there's always someone a little too pessimistic in this forum.

[Omikifuse]

for me these $10 plunge are like end of world predictions, there are always someone to make them, and we all know they will never happen, but we still talk about them because it is fun.

[polynesia]

for me these $10 plunge are like end of world predictions, there are always someone to make them, and we all know they will never happen, but we still talk about them because it is fun.

I have heard worse - 80% probability of going to zero. 

[ytlover]

hahhaha such bullshit

[Adrian-x]

hahhaha such bullshit

No seriously you may have asymmetric insider knowledge that gives you confidence it won't crash to zero but given this experiment is still at an early state it should be considered that there is a strong positively of failure.

One shouldn't investment with 100% certainty when the outcome is undetermined.

[polynesia]

No seriously you may have asymmetric insider knowledge that gives you confidence it won't crash to zero but given this experiment is still at an early state it should be considered that there is a strong positively of failure.

One shouldn't investment with 100% certainty when the outcome is undetermined.

True. Too many unknown variables.
The path governments take vis-a-vis bitcoin would have a big role to play in determining whether this experiment is a success.

[Furio]

If it will, this guy is gonna invest a bunch

[zhinkk]

I would sell my house and my kids if it went down to $10 again, just saying. There is too much confidence in the market to let it drop that low.

[botany]

I would sell my house and my kids if it went down to $10 again, just saying. There is too much confidence in the market to let it drop that low.

Tim Draper would feel real bad if it dropped to $10. He will probably prop up the price. 

[Nxtblg]

By The Way...to get back to the hobby-horse I've been riding on this thread:

#1. Gold in the later 1970s went through a blow-off bubble that ended in January of 1980. The carnage was held at bay through most of '81 but came back with a vengeance in 1982.

I did some poking around and found this Fun Fact. If you had loaded up on gold in the quiet time after the '74-76 bear market (say, a few months after America's 200th), and if you subsequently did nothing but HODL that stake, you would still have had a double even at the worst of the carnage in '82.

#2. YHOO, of course, was one of the biggest stocks participating in the rocket-ride Internet bubble in the late 1990s: the peak of that bubble came in March of 2000. As with gold, the carnage was contained for some time but burst forth anew in '01 and didn't fade away until early '02.

Now here's a Fun Fact about YHOO. If you had bought in the quiet time in the summer of '97, a little after the hot new contenders of '95 had had their stocks beaten bloody, and again did nothing but HODL subsequently, at the darkest post-bubble-carnage days you still would have had a quadruple.

And The Lesson Derived From The Above:

If you buy an asset that's suspected of being a bubble when its price action is quiet, particularly after a false bubble that ended up only being a regular bear market (er-ahem), and don't monkey around with your hold, that asset can be swept into the worst kind of bubble - and you'll still emerge with a decent profit even after the worst of the post-bubble carnage.

But in order for this plan to work, you have to buy quality and do nothing but HODL. Needless to say, Bitcoin is quality.

...but the HODL part will be a real toughie once Bitcoin becomes smokin' hot...
   

[polynesia]

By The Way...to get back to the hobby-horse I've been riding on this thread:

#1. Gold in the later 1970s went through a blow-off bubble that ended in January of 1980. The carnage was held at bay through most of '81 but came back with a vengeance in 1982.

I did some poking around and found this Fun Fact. If you had loaded up on gold in the quiet time after the '74-76 bear market (say, a few months after America's 200th), and if you subsequently did nothing but HODL that stake, you would still have had a double even at the worst of the carnage in '82.

#2. YHOO, of course, was one of the biggest stocks participating in the rocket-ride Internet bubble in the late 1990s: the peak of that bubble came in March of 2000. As with gold, the carnage was contained for some time but burst forth anew in '01 and didn't fade away until early '02.

Now here's a Fun Fact about YHOO. If you had bought in the quiet time in the summer of '97, a little after the hot new contenders of '95 had had their stocks beaten bloody, and again did nothing but HODL subsequently, at the darkest post-bubble-carnage days you still would have had a quadruple.

And The Lesson Derived From The Above:

If you buy an asset that's suspected of being a bubble when its price action is quiet, particularly after a false bubble that ended up only being a regular bear market (er-ahem), and don't monkey around with your hold, that asset can be swept into the worst kind of bubble - and you'll still emerge with a decent profit even after the worst of the post-bubble carnage.

But in order for this plan to work, you have to buy quality and do nothing but HODL. Needless to say, Bitcoin is quality.

...but the HODL part will be a real toughie once Bitcoin becomes smokin' hot...
   

or sell when you are satisfied with your gain.
And not regret it afterwards.

[Nxtblg]

By The Way...to get back to the hobby-horse I've been riding on this thread:

#1. Gold in the later 1970s went through a blow-off bubble that ended in January of 1980. The carnage was held at bay through most of '81 but came back with a vengeance in 1982.

I did some poking around and found this Fun Fact. If you had loaded up on gold in the quiet time after the '74-76 bear market (say, a few months after America's 200th), and if you subsequently did nothing but HODL that stake, you would still have had a double even at the worst of the carnage in '82.

#2. YHOO, of course, was one of the biggest stocks participating in the rocket-ride Internet bubble in the late 1990s: the peak of that bubble came in March of 2000. As with gold, the carnage was contained for some time but burst forth anew in '01 and didn't fade away until early '02.

Now here's a Fun Fact about YHOO. If you had bought in the quiet time in the summer of '97, a little after the hot new contenders of '95 had had their stocks beaten bloody, and again did nothing but HODL subsequently, at the darkest post-bubble-carnage days you still would have had a quadruple.

And The Lesson Derived From The Above:

If you buy an asset that's suspected of being a bubble when its price action is quiet, particularly after a false bubble that ended up only being a regular bear market (er-ahem), and don't monkey around with your hold, that asset can be swept into the worst kind of bubble - and you'll still emerge with a decent profit even after the worst of the post-bubble carnage.

But in order for this plan to work, you have to buy quality and do nothing but HODL. Needless to say, Bitcoin is quality.

...but the HODL part will be a real toughie once Bitcoin becomes smokin' hot...
   

or sell when you are satisfied with your gain.
And not regret it afterwards.

And that's even more difficult, psychologically. That's why the old-time punters said, "sell in May and go away." Back then, for some punters, "go away" quite literally meant going to the summer home and trying to forget that the stock market even existed.

[Ayers]

Im glad that guy was wrong lol. I don't think it could survive such a big knock.

how can such stupd prediction be right by any mean? even 100 dollar would have been super stupid let alone $10

[skivrmt]

Im glad that guy was wrong lol. I don't think it could survive such a big knock.

how can such stupd prediction be right by any mean? even 100 dollar would have been super stupid let alone $10

But the thing about predictions is that almost always, someone is right, at some point.  The price will drop, the price will rise, the stock market will have a 10% correction.  If I keep a log of predictions, at some point I'll be right about 1 of them, maybe even 2 or 3 of them.  Then I'll be the "expert" since I "predicted" the bitcoin drop, rise, etc.

[oceans]

I'll tell you, if bitcoin ever did drop to as low as that I would be one of the first to invest in a bunch of bitcoin when the price rises again I would be one very rich person  I don't see it ever dropping that low.

[botany]

I'll tell you, if bitcoin ever did drop to as low as that I would be one of the first to invest in a bunch of bitcoin when the price rises again I would be one very rich person  I don't see it ever dropping that low.

If prices were going down, do you think you will have the patience till it drops to 10? 
Or would you go all-in much earlier?

[e1ghtSpace]

Im glad that guy was wrong lol. I don't think it could survive such a big knock.

I could, by buying a crap load.

[Bobsurplus]

Well this was another waste of a thread..

[Nxtblg]

Well this was another waste of a thread..

Except for educational purposes. Had I not seen it, I never would have focussed in on the fact that "buy the fud, sell the acclaim" works like a durned dream.

It's the prefect thread, if only potentially, for a creative response.