Bitcoin will plummet to $10 by first half of 2014

[cinnamon_carter]

if it ever happens , which it did not i will be buying

[Swordsoffreedom]

Well buffet is not a technologist so its not really his fault
(Said it on multiple occasions)
Besides he has his train business and other industries that he built his fortune from so for him Bitcoin is just something that he doesn't need to bother with he already has all the money he needs
So while he is dated that old dog made his fortune long ago.

But what if he decides to live forever, and Bitcoin takes up after all?

In that case I would commend the good fellow for discovering immortality
Somehow he was able to become a full cyborg and keep his brain functioning longer than his body
(Also if he went full cyborg)
I think his opinion towards technology based companies would have done a full 180 and he would embrace bitcoin with a fervor.

[tee-rex]

Well buffet is not a technologist so its not really his fault
(Said it on multiple occasions)
Besides he has his train business and other industries that he built his fortune from so for him Bitcoin is just something that he doesn't need to bother with he already has all the money he needs
So while he is dated that old dog made his fortune long ago.

But what if he decides to live forever, and Bitcoin takes up after all?

In that case I would commend the good fellow for discovering immortality
Somehow he was able to become a full cyborg and keep his brain functioning longer than his body
(Also if he went full cyborg)
I think his opinion towards technology based companies would have done a full 180 and he would embrace bitcoin with a fervor.

Actually it has. According to Reuters, in November 2011 it became known that during the previous eight months, Buffett had bought 64 million shares of IBM stock.

The Berkshire Hathaway chief executive said he has bought nearly $11 billion of International Business Machines Corp stock in the last eight months, building a roughly 5.5 percent stake that potentially makes him the largest shareholder in the company

Does it imply that he has discovered something (or paid for it)?

[semizias]

This learns us that bitcoin rules and will never go down (at least not for another hundred years is my guess)

[Vortex20000]

Ahem. It's August. Bitcoin is at $584.

Umm...

also, if it did plummet, I'd invest my thousands of dollars I'm holding onto

[JorgeStolfi]

Ahem. It's August. Bitcoin is at $584.

You must have blinked.  Look again at the chart, it is 498$ now.

[Nxtblg]

Ahem. It's August. Bitcoin is at $584.

You must have blinked.  Look again at the chart, it is 498$ now.

On sale once again...

damn...I'm beginning to hate being fiat-broke ...

[blumangroup]

Ahem. It's August. Bitcoin is at $584.

You must have blinked.  Look again at the chart, it is 498$ now.

On sale once again...

damn...I'm beginning to hate being fiat-broke ...

$515 as of right now. Let's hope it gets back up there soon!

And as a fellow fiat-pauper, I feel ya.

[Yakamoto]

Ahem. It's August. Bitcoin is at $584.

You must have blinked.  Look again at the chart, it is 498$ now.

On sale once again...

damn...I'm beginning to hate being fiat-broke ...

$515 as of right now. Let's hope it gets back up there soon!

And as a fellow fiat-pauper, I feel ya.

I wonder what is happening with the price...

I understand how both of you are feeling, however. I too and quite low on my fiat holdings. A same I can't pick some more up while they're on sale...

[Nxtblg]

Ahem. It's August. Bitcoin is at $584.

You must have blinked.  Look again at the chart, it is 498$ now.

On sale once again...

damn...I'm beginning to hate being fiat-broke ...

$515 as of right now. Let's hope it gets back up there soon!

And as a fellow fiat-pauper, I feel ya.

I wonder what is happening with the price...

I understand how both of you are feeling, however. I too and quite low on my fiat holdings. A same I can't pick some more up while they're on sale...

Thanks to you both, and back at ya with the sympathy.

[tee-rex]

Ahem. It's August. Bitcoin is at $584.

You must have blinked.  Look again at the chart, it is 498$ now.

On sale once again...

damn...I'm beginning to hate being fiat-broke ...

$515 as of right now. Let's hope it gets back up there soon!

Now the end begins, and the prophecy comes true (the words should be read as "Bitcoin will plummet to $10 by the end of 2014")...

[lphelps]

I understand why Gold and Silver aren't doing shit because they're being held down with paper contracts..

But BitCoin going down and it being pretty much pegged to the US Dollar.. Does it go down because the Dollar went up in value???

I figure if the dollar crashes, then BitCoin will skyrocket because it will take many more Dollars to buy a BitCoin right??

I see you have more and more retailers accepting Bitcoin, so why is it diving?? Central Bankers dumping their stashes of BTC??

[zedicus]

Ahem. It's August. Bitcoin is at $584.

You must have blinked.  Look again at the chart, it is 498$ now.

On sale once again...

damn...I'm beginning to hate being fiat-broke ...

$515 as of right now. Let's hope it gets back up there soon!

And as a fellow fiat-pauper, I feel ya.

I wonder what is happening with the price...

I understand how both of you are feeling, however. I too and quite low on my fiat holdings. A same I can't pick some more up while they're on sale...

I think it is likely having to do with the over leverage at bitfinex. Hopefully these leveraged positions will get liquidated and people will eventually start to buy again once the price falls more.

[nwfella]

I understand why Gold and Silver aren't doing shit because they're being held down with paper contracts..

But BitCoin going down and it being pretty much pegged to the US Dollar.. Does it go down because the Dollar went up in value???

I figure if the dollar crashes, then BitCoin will skyrocket because it will take many more Dollars to buy a BitCoin right??

I see you have more and more retailers accepting Bitcoin, so why is it diving?? Central Bankers dumping their stashes of BTC??

imho the recent drop in btc price can be attributed largely to the following:
1.) Pending bitlicense regulation
2.) Margin trading on Bitfinex
3.) Massive # of automated trading bot's selling off in a frenzy as a result of pre-programmed settings.
4.) Fat bag holders that received their coins illegitmately that are trying to get what they can just in case btc's day in the sun is over.
5.) Most merchants that are starting to accept bitcoin you have to understand are basically doing so with the intention of converting it instantly to fiat.  Everytime this happens bitcoin price is going to take a hit.  Particularly if the Buy order depth on whatever exchange or processor the person is cashing out on is weak.
6.) Overall image of bitcoin suffering pretty bad, at least the majority of the opinions i've been hearing are largely negative.  And primarily based in ignorance.  I try to correct what I can when I can but it's hard to argue with the types of headlines that are making the big news right now. 

[JorgeStolfi]

imho the recent drop in btc price can be attributed largely to the following:
4.) Fat bag holders that received their coins illegitmately that are trying to get what they can just in case btc's day in the sun is over.
5.) Most merchants that are starting to accept bitcoin you have to understand are basically doing so with the intention of converting it instantly to fiat.  Everytime this happens bitcoin price is going to take a hit.  Particularly if the Buy order depth on whatever exchange or processor the person is cashing out on is weak.
6.) Overall image of bitcoin suffering pretty bad, at least the majority of the opinions i've been hearing are largely negative.  And primarily based in ignorance.

Agreed.  But you cannot assume that the bad image of bitcoin is due to "ignorance".  To believe in its ultimate success one must believe in several premises, that, in most people's exerience, are quite unlikely...

But one cannot hope to understand why the price is falling now without knowing why it went up from 450$ to 650$ on May/20--Jun/10.  So far, this crash is merely undoing that rally.  However, when th eprice goes up everybody says "I don't care why", or "that's bitcoin", or give some TA non-explanation, or engage in wishful thinking that it surely is "the next bubble".

The last bubble was due to the opening of the Chinese market, and most everything that has happened to the price since then is clearly due to events and rumors that are relevant to China.  There will not be another bubble without the opening of anotherm even bigger market; where is it?

There is no obvious explanation however fror the May/20-Jun/10 rally.  That does not mean that there was not an external cause, only that we do not know about it.  From the way price moved, it looks like a few Chinese traders went on buying sprees, one at  a time, mostly in that 20-day period but also in the next 2 months.  My guess is that they got inside information of some future positive development, that prompted them to buy.  But now that expectation has somehow deflated, so they are dumping what they bought. 

Perhaps they expected the international versions of Huobi (BitVC) and OKCoin (OKCoin.com) to start a new bubble (rather disappointing so far).  Perhaps they were XRP owners who heard of Jed McCaleb's plans to sell his billion XRP, expected XRP to crash, and rushed to exchange theirXRP for BTC; only to undo the switch now that Jed struck a deal with Ripple.  Or, conversely, perhaps they were people who wanted to buy Jed's XRP, and stocked up on BTC for that.  os osmething else.

[altsay]

There is no obvious explanation however fror the May/20-Jun/10 rally.  That does not mean that there was not an external cause, only that we do not know about it.  From the way price moved, it looks like a few Chinese traders went on buying sprees, one at  a time, mostly in that 20-day period but also in the next 2 months.  My guess is that they got inside information of some future positive development, that prompted them to buy.  But now that expectation has somehow deflated, so they are dumping what they bought. 

Perhaps they expected the international versions of Huobi (BitVC) and OKCoin (OKCoin.com) to start a new bubble (rather disappointing so far).  Perhaps they were XRP owners who heard of Jed McCaleb's plans to sell his billion XRP, expected XRP to crash, and rushed to exchange theirXRP for BTC; only to undo the switch now that Jed struck a deal with Ripple.  Or, conversely, perhaps they were people who wanted to buy Jed's XRP, and stocked up on BTC for that.  os osmething else.

If chinese are that stupid, so be it. Dumpers gonna dump.

[Rotary Sausage]

Has Buffett invested in Bitcoin? Just curious.

No, and he advised against it.  He doesn't invest in tech and/or commodities IIRC.

Oh, that explains why he's a name that pushes some hot buttons around here.

Myself, I don't see why. I know he's outspoken and at time abrasive, but with respect to plain investment, he's an old dog who will not learn new tricks. As for him taking BRK to a whole 'nother level of what could be politely called "insider capitalism," that trick was an old one in the time of Henry Clay.

The majority of old dogs can be taught new tricks actually. It looks like you'll be tricked along with millions of others.
Normalcy bias can be a terrible weapon against the mind. You should be more optimistic sir

[Nxtblg]

The majority of old dogs can be taught new tricks actually. It looks like you'll be tricked along with millions of others.
Normalcy bias can be a terrible weapon against the mind. You should be more optimistic sir

I'm more optimistic than I sound, sir; I'm most definitely in the tank for cryptos to hit the big time. I just depart from the more optimistic timelines, that's all. The old Evangelism 1.0 does seem to have hit the proverbial brick wall. But, I am sure it's only a matter of time before the old dogs 'round here come up with Evangelism 2.0 and over the brick wall we'll go.

But I am a little perplexed as to why so many 'round here don't just peg Mr. Buffett as a write-off and move on...

[GangkisKhan]

Bitcoin has hold out remarkably well compare to other coins. A strong resistance at around 490 and there is no sign of it being broken.

[catlinhappy]

by Victor Kerezov

Mark Williams, a risk management and capital markets professor at Boston University, is out with a bold call – he predicts that the price of one bitcoin will crash to $10 or even lower by the first half of 2014.
Williams is a risk management practitioner and academic with tw-decades of experience from working as a bank examiner at the US Federal Reserve to a commodities trading floor senior executive.
The finance professor observes that the buying and selling of the digital currency is “controlled by only a handful of exchanges in places like China, Slovenia and Bulgaria.” Exchange bankruptcies are not uncommon for the roller-coaster bitcoin market. In addition, the exchanges are based on a peer-to-peer model and regulation is virtually absent.
Bitcoin “has not been bear-market tested and if enough sellers try to run for the door it is not clear that existing infrastructure is capable of executing trade orders without significant time delays and price risk,” clarifies the former commodities trader.
Some bitcoin aficionados claim that the digital currency would replace the US dollar as the new global reserve currency, while others believe the digital form of money would provide a cheaper alternative to expensive payment platforms such as Western Union. “Adding more helium to the story, the Winklevoss twins of Facebook fame, not being shy about talking up their own book, predicted prices would rise to a staggering $40,000 per coin”, notes Williams
At the start of this month, bitcoin peaked at over $1,200 as “e-currency evangelists trumpeted the endless possibilities to be unleashed”. However, the price more than halved since then as the ‘Chinese regulatory pin’ burst the hyper bubble. In the view of the risk management expert, “the market has finally realized that hype alone cannot support lofty prices”.
Mark Williams then goes on to say that every asset bubble has three phases: “growth, maturity and pop”. He believes that 2013 was the maturity stage and we are now entering the time when the bubble pops. “Ironically, China, the second largest economy in the world, helped push Bitcoin prices to the clouds and now is pulling prices back to earth,” observes the former Fed bank examiner. In the last two weeks, the People’s Bank of China banned local banks from accepting the digital currency and then forbade third-party firms from transacting with bitcoin exchanges. In between the two announcement, Baidu, China’s Google equivalent, announced it would no longer accept bitcoins. Other major central banks and banking watch-dogs have taken a similar position like the PBoC, warning against the risks of the e-currency.

Williams then goes to proclaim that “if bitcoin was allowed to proliferate as a currency it would produce greater economic uncertainty, reduced trade and lower individual standard of living.” Retailers typically work on tight margins and the immense volatility of the e-currency could eliminate all their profit or even result in losses. In this bitcoin world of uncertainty and risk, commerce would ultimately decline and stone-age bartering would increase. “Naturally, as bitcoin price swings increased, the number of businesses willing to accept e-currency risk would decline”, assumes the former commodities trader.
“Bitcoin is not a legitimate currency but simply a risky virtual commodity bet”, argues the academic at Boston University. Even Winklevii’s call that it is a commodity currency may be unfounded because the wannabe currency does not have a tangible value like gold, which is a widely accepted alternative form of money.
Bitcoin is just backed by dreams and it is “only worth what people are willing to pay”, opines the former Fed bank examiner. “As it becomes increasingly evident that Bitcoin will not be the global currency standard, but simply a novel idea that will be improved upon by more nimble competitors such as Litecoin, restrictions and new regulations will be imposed and prices will plummet.”
“I predict that Bitcoin will trade for under $10 a share by the first half of 2014, single digit pricing reflecting its option value as a pure commodity play”, concludes Mark Williams.

http://invezz.com/news/forex/7726-bitcoin-usd-will-plummet-to-dollar-10-by-first-half-of-2014-predicts-risk-management-expert

http://invezz.com/news/forex/7726-bitcoin-usd-will-plummet-to-dollar-10-by-first-half-of-2014-predicts-risk-management-expert
We have seen the 2014 January while the prediction is not right, kindly tell us about January 2015.