Bitcoin will plummet to $10 by first half of 2014

[gmx95]

Well, not sure about $10, but bitcoin certainly has surprised everybody so far. :-)

[yunkie]

Another wrong prediction. It's good to have these threads for history lessons.

[botany]

Well, not sure about $10, but bitcoin certainly has surprised everybody so far. :-)

With every drop in price, doomsday scenarios are revived. 

[Sunderland]

i know bitcoin is down for now ...
but prediction that bitcoin will plummet to $10 in this year is so funny and that considered a failed joke for me.

no machine and brain in world can predict that , but down to $10 ? 
mark williams maybe drunk while saying that

[Daniel91]

i know bitcoin is down for now ...
but prediction that bitcoin will plummet to $10 in this year is so funny and that considered a failed joke for me.

no machine and brain in world can predict that , but down to $10 ? 
mark williams maybe drunk while saying that

LOL I agree with this.
It's possible that value of bitcoin will go up and down, based on demand, but it's really unlikely that, in the long term value of bitcoun will go much down.
In the long term, specially when bitcoin become mainstream and globally accepted by the big merchants, I expect that value of bitcoin will be very high

[deus-ex-machina]

Quick question. Are 400 and 10 the same number?

[Cryptopher]

Quick question. Are 400 and 10 the same number?

Nope. I don't even know why this thread hasn't been locked and committed to forum history. It's not relevant anymore.

[JorgeStolfi]

Quick question. Are 400 and 10 the same number?

Nope. I don't even know why this thread hasn't been locked and committed to forum history. It's not relevant anymore.

Suppose that the price drops to 15$ next Monday.  Will you still laugh at that "totally wrong" prediction? 

[Nxtblg]

i know bitcoin is down for now ...
but prediction that bitcoin will plummet to $10 in this year is so funny and that considered a failed joke for me.

no machine and brain in world can predict that , but down to $10 ? 
mark williams maybe drunk while saying that

The bribe check to Mark Karpeles bounced.

Yes, I am kidding...please don't sue...

[skivrmt]

Quick question. Are 400 and 10 the same number?

Nope. I don't even know why this thread hasn't been locked and committed to forum history. It's not relevant anymore.

Suppose that the price drops to 15$ next Monday.  Will you still laugh at that "totally wrong" prediction? 

No but I think the implication was it's totally ridiculous assumption or guess.  Could Apple drop to $10 by Dec, of course it -could-, but its highly unlikely.  -Could- Bitcoin drop to $10 by Dec?  Of course.  But again, highly unlikely.

[meadefreling]

Well bitcoin will never get to $100 how much more $10 at least not in our life time

[JorgeStolfi]

No but I think the implication was it's totally ridiculous assumption or guess.  Could Apple drop to $10 by Dec, of course it -could-, but its highly unlikely.  -Could- Bitcoin drop to $10 by Dec?  Of course.  But again, highly unlikely.

It is not the same thing at all, that was his point.

The price of a company's stock is based on the value of the company's assets (their factories, stores, patents, etc.) and their expected profit, which depends on demand for their products.  If you own one share of the company, you own a certain slice (say, 1/10'000'000) of those assets and profits.   When the company distributes their profits, you will get that slice of the profit.  If the compant were to close down, their assets would be sold and you would get that slice of the money.

Financial analysts have formulas to compute the "sensible" share price from these so-called "fundamentals".  These fundamentals cannot drop suddenly by 98% (unless some global catastrophe happens, like an asteroid hitting Earth, or there is something very wrong going on with the company's finances that no one knew).  Thus the stock fof companies like Apple or Coca-Cola is very unlikely to drop by 98% all of a sudden.

Bitcoins, on the other hand, have zero assets and zero profits.  Their value is supposed to derive entirely from the demand by people who want to buy them in order to pay for things over the internet.  However, that demand is still very small.  The current price (over 500$) is due to the much larger demand by short-term speculators (day traders) who buy and sell bitcoins on the exchanges for profit; and most of that trade is in China. 

So why is the price at the exchanges 500$, rather than 5000$ or 50$?  There is no logical explanation, that is just the price at the thousands of Chinese day-traders are willing to buy and sell it now.  They think that 1 BTC is worth 500$ because they see that everybody else is paying 500$ for 1 BTC, and buy it expecting the price to be somwhat higher sometime later. At times they get more optimistic about the future price and start paying more, at times they get more pessimistic and will pay less. 

So it is perfectly possible that the price will fall to 10$ or lower, if all the traders just get convinced that the value is 10$.  Last November the price shoot up from ~120$ to ~1200$ for no reason, just because thousands of Chinese traders discovered bitcoin and wanted to day-trade with it.  Just as it shoot up without a concrete reason, it could come down without a concrete reason.  (And it has, so much that  the price now is only 50% of what it was on Nov/29.)

[skivrmt]

No but I think the implication was it's totally ridiculous assumption or guess.  Could Apple drop to $10 by Dec, of course it -could-, but its highly unlikely.  -Could- Bitcoin drop to $10 by Dec?  Of course.  But again, highly unlikely.

It is not the same thing at all, that was his point.

The price of a company's stock is based on the value of the company's assets (their factories, stores, patents, etc.) and their expected profit, which depends on demand for their products.  If you own one share of the company, you own a certain slice (say, 1/10'000'000) of those assets and profits.   When the company distributes their profits, you will get that slice of the profit.  If the compant were to close down, their assets would be sold and you would get that slice of the money.

Financial analysts have formulas to compute the "sensible" share price from these so-called "fundamentals".  These fundamentals cannot drop suddenly by 98% (unless some global catastrophe happens, like an asteroid hitting Earth, or there is something very wrong going on with the company's finances that no one knew).  Thus the stock fof companies like Apple or Coca-Cola is very unlikely to drop by 98% all of a sudden.

Bitcoins, on the other hand, have zero assets and zero profits.  Their value is supposed to derive entirely from the demand by people who want to buy them in order to pay for things over the internet.  However, that demand is still very small.  The current price (over 500$) is due to the much larger demand by short-term speculators (day traders) who buy and sell bitcoins on the exchanges for profit; and most of that trade is in China. 

So why is the price at the exchanges 500$, rather than 5000$ or 50$?  There is no logical explanation, that is just the price at the thousands of Chinese day-traders are willing to buy and sell it now.  They think that 1 BTC is worth 500$ because they see that everybody else is paying 500$ for 1 BTC, and buy it expecting the price to be somwhat higher sometime later. At times they get more optimistic about the future price and start paying more, at times they get more pessimistic and will pay less. 

So it is perfectly possible that the price will fall to 10$ or lower, if all the traders just get convinced that the value is 10$.  Last November the price shoot up from ~120$ to ~1200$ for no reason, just because thousands of Chinese traders discovered bitcoin and wanted to day-trade with it.  Just as it shoot up without a concrete reason, it could come down without a concrete reason.  (And it has, so much that  the price now is only 50% of what it was on Nov/29.)

Bitcoin has value at $500 because someone thinks its value is such that.  Obviously it has no real value.  But either does a stock. Technically a stock is generally worth ~1/100th of a cent.  How about gold?  Why is gold over $1000 an oz?  It doesn't keep you warm, you can't eat it, you really can't build with it.  It's worth that because its used as a hedge and people perceive it has value.  Not very dissimilar to Bitcoins.

[Cryptopher]

Quick question. Are 400 and 10 the same number?

Nope. I don't even know why this thread hasn't been locked and committed to forum history. It's not relevant anymore.

Suppose that the price drops to 15$ next Monday.  Will you still laugh at that "totally wrong" prediction? 

Well that would still make this thread moot as this relates to a prediction that transpired to be incorrect.

I wouldn't laugh, but I wouldn't cry as I aren't invested in Bitcoin at the moment.

[JorgeStolfi]

Bitcoin has value at $500 because someone thinks its value is such that.  Obviously it has no real value.  But either does a stock. Technically a stock is generally worth ~1/100th of a cent.

Not at all.  As I explained above, if you own some of a company's stock, you, quite literally, own a certain slice of the company - its factories, machines, patents, organization, brand, - and of its future profits.  The price of one share (which depends a lot on the company) is a function of the value of the company's assets, which are lised and evaluated every quarter by independent auditors;  and of its expected profits, which can be estimated from concrete market and production data.

How about gold?  Why is gold over $1000 an oz?  It doesn't keep you warm, you can't eat it, you really can't build with it.  It's worth that because its used as a hedge and people perceive it has value.  Not very dissimilar to Bitcoins.

Unlike bitcoin, gold does have some utilitarian demand besides currency, investment, or speculation (jewelry, electronics, etc.).  It It also material (everyone can see it and many can test it, without the need of sotware), is permanent (won't disappear if some network stops working), is unalterable (its nature cannot be changed by some community changing some protocol),  and is understood by most everyone.  

But, indeed, gold is currently is overpriced, because its demand is mostly from investment/speculation, and is much higher than the utilitarian one.  Like bitcoin, its price is largely pegged to itself, and could fall drastically if the mood of investors changes.

The changes are slower for gold, because there is a much larger market, and because the trust people have in gold's future demand is not as easily changed by news as their trust in bitcoin's future demand  (which can change radically by a  decree from a government, for example.  Nevertheless, gold has lost about 1/3 of its price between 2012 and 2014 (from 1800$/oz to 1200$/oz).

By the way, this drops is why there are presently so many predictions of imminent global economic catastrophe: they are usually precious metals brokers trying to convince people to invest in gold and silver again.

[tee-rex]

The changes are slower for gold, because there is a much larger market, and because the trust people have in gold's future demand is not as easily changed by news as their trust in bitcoin's future demand  (which can change radically by a  decree from a government, for example.  Nevertheless, gold has lost about 1/3 of its price between 2012 and 2014 (from 1800$/oz to 1200$/oz).

That's true but you also shouldn't forget where gold had started its rally to 1800$/oz. If I'm not mistaken, it began climbing to the top from as low as $400 per troy ounce (or even below).

[JorgeStolfi]

you also shouldn't forget where gold had started its rally to 1800$/oz. If I'm not mistaken, it began climbing to the top from as low as $400 per troy ounce (or even below).

Yes.  Even at 1200$/oz, the price of gold is still unsupported by its demand for actual use.  Maybe even at 400$/oz.

Gold and diamond are such superb materials, it is a pity that they are so expensive (and kept expensive in part by cartels).  It would be so nice if they were as cheap as iron and glass...

[ihuntbtc]

Interesting piece of history in thread format.

[MÖGUL™]

Any economist, professor, stock trader etc... cant really say sh*t about bitcoin predictions, any negative prediction has no real basis. Positive predictions are hard to tell also, but more likely to happen as Bitcoins continue to grow!

BTC The Future!

 

[claimore]

It's common sense that Bitcoin will grow, all indicators say so, whats deluded it's posts like OP.