bitcoin bear chart

[Rampion]

MOABT (mother of all bear traps)?

I suppose it might be the 'mother of all' bull traps, but again not really. Away from the heavily slanted bias of this forum, nobody with any kind of head for investment is looking at Bitcoin now and thinking, 'definite buy, it simply MUST go up'. Anyone entering market at this point in time must surely know they are taking a risk that this is indeed a stability period after the very bottom.

I disagree. Wealth investors and institutional investors look at bitcoin as boom or bust. I don't think many of them think that the price will be anywhere near $600 2-3 years from now. They believe it will either be between $0-$5 or $10k-$100k.  So, if you are going to take the chance on Bitcoin from their perspective, $600 is as good as $500 or $400 or whereever.

So, as a bear, you have to ask yourself, how long are you going to wait out for a couple hundred dollar cheaper coins, before the bigger money arrives next year.

This is a half-truth at best. Having 30%, 50% or 100% more of something is quite a difference. Smart money looks for the best entry point in a given timeframe, especially when dealing with an extremely volatile asset as it is BTC.

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[SuperHakka]

yeah, blah blah blah

http://www.entrepreneur.com/article/230346

dude you call that a serious player? the founder said that $70m "blows his mind" wtf?

[socket]

Honestly hundreds of millions is basically a rounding error for the big boys on Wall Street.  So, I don't see why it couldn't happen... if it works out well more money will come.

[johnyj]

Generally speak, change the wallet every 6 months is a good practice. Even your backups are stolen and the encryption password is being brute forced by a GPU cluster, you are still fine. Recently I heard several stories about coins in old wallet were stolen after several months

[jubalix]

There is no denying that, first, if chinas ban on 3rd parties companies to supply money to exchanges is not resolved then this can't be helped, if you guys had experienced the dotcom bubble you would understand what is going on around here, second, there are talks about the worst possible outcome for bitcoin and other cryptos but I'm not going to talk about it.

a few notes

even if true, we are effectively in about 1988 of the internet, eg pre mosaic age...on the sun sparc, which was really the first browser combo that is still effectively what we see today, so year left to get to 2000-2001 dot com bubble crash.

the dot com bubble, benefits and losses were limited to silicon valley tech etc.


Bitcoin is much more widely accessible.

the Dot come era, looked to replace communication modes, eg, mail, reading info etc.

the Crypto era looks to replace / upgrade fundamental aspects of society, which hither too have never been done before in human history.

eg, unidentifiable, unsiezable wallet / store of wealth that can be paid to anyone anytime, this is a complete paradigm change in human history, without few things to compare to it....

I for one would like some examples of something similar to prove me wrong.

[piramida]

Recently I heard several stories about coins in old wallet were stolen after several months

you did? care to elaborate? maybe they had PK printed out on a wall in a public place?

[ElectricMucus]

Or had a bad random source (like the Android wallets).

An address where the private key was never used (no transactions out) is slightly more secure in that matter.

I like the irony of that.

[johnyj]

Recently I heard several stories about coins in old wallet were stolen after several months

you did? care to elaborate? maybe they had PK printed out on a wall in a public place?

Two cases, wallet not accessed/working fine for several months and suddenly one day the coins are gone

http://bbs.btcman.com/thread-8909-1-1.html
http://bbs.btcman.com/thread-11475-1-1.html

The most possible explanation is that a backup of the wallet is stolen long time ago, but due to there are encryptions/password protections, it has to be brute forced, maybe time consuming, but still not totally impossible. And it is possible the password pattern of that specific user is being analyzed using social engineering/Trojan  during that period

If you have a cold storage that has never been accessed for the past 2 years, how can you make sure that no one has ever made a copy of that wallet? Unless you are sleeping with it every day

[piramida]

Recently I heard several stories about coins in old wallet were stolen after several months

you did? care to elaborate? maybe they had PK printed out on a wall in a public place?

Two cases, wallet not accessed/working fine for several months and suddenly one day the coins are gone

http://bbs.btcman.com/thread-8909-1-1.html
http://bbs.btcman.com/thread-11475-1-1.html

The most possible explanation is that a backup of the wallet is stolen long time ago, but due to there are encryptions/password protections, it has to be brute forced, maybe time consuming, but still not totally impossible. And it is possible the password pattern of that specific user is being analyzed using social engineering/Trojan  during that period

If you have a cold storage that has never been accessed for the past 2 years, how can you make sure that no one has ever made a copy of that wallet? Unless you are sleeping with it every day

don't read chinese, so pretty hard to understand with google translate, but I would bet it is a user error, just like other hundreds of similar cases. Like you say, trojan could steal the file and keylog the password, and that is the most plausible explanation, in case user did not just keep the password in a text file. You would be surprised, but many do. I don't think it is practical to bruteforce a 20-digit password, it's millions of years. and it definitely is not plausible to pick up a PK for a public key, would be much more realistic to just guess the 20-digit password on the first try, than to bruteforce the PK in a year on all world's computers combined.

[jasonjm]

is bitcoin ever going to get a USA exchange?

kind of crazy that half the volume is USA based (or close to it), and there is not a single USA bitcoin exchange?

I think that would be a bullish signal for me (personally).

[accord01]

is bitcoin ever going to get a USA exchange?

kind of crazy that half the volume is USA based (or close to it), and there is not a single USA bitcoin exchange?

I think that would be a bullish signal for me (personally).

Yeah how about an exchange where you don't have to constantly check the website to see if the domain name has disappeared or not.

[jasonjm]

Yeah I don't get it.  How can there not be a USA exchange?

The exchanges are bitcoins weakness.  There is not a single properly functioning scam free exchange. 

[bitrider]

http://www.entrepreneur.com/article/230346

And if that article rings true, do you think the Big Boys are going to be piling into Bitcoin at $1K per coin or whatever ludicrous ATH all that 'naive' Wall St money pushes Bitcoin to, or are they more likely to be buying in at unfathomable lows. If such institutional investors are entering the market for the long term, do you think it would be beneath them to push the market much lower in the short-term, and hold it there, having it drag along the depths as they slowly take their positions?

See, you posted a bear article without even realising it.

The Big Boys will be buying low. After they have severely restricted the volume of 'free Bitcoin' in circulation, everyone else will push Bitcoin up. They will make huge profits, other people might also do ok, many othres may find themselves 'actually using' Bitcoin, but in the long long run, most investment capital that goes into Bitcoin will lose value.......no different from any other asset class that ever did exist.

Somewhat true, but only small part of the story. BTC market, like all commodity markets is now and will continue to be heavily manipulated by those with big resources. That's just the way it is. And an unregulated like market like btc even more so. Trying to beat them or deny them is just stupid. Understanding them and following them is smart.

A market like btc must be "conditioned" as part of the process of bringing big money to the table.  The market is "conditioned" by running the price up and down, shaking out weak hands, and enticing new money into the game - who will soon become future weak hands. Conditioning the market spreads the coins around, and ultimately grows the coffers of the big players - who are driving the market fluctuations. If the price stays too low for too long, you have no new money coming into the arena.  A depressed and sad market is not what the big money wants. They will drive prices down to capitulation levels, just long enough to shake out the fearful weak hands - without destroying the underlying market. If the price gets too far ahead, the big players can't get hold of enough new coins at low prices. So there is incentive for the big players to increase volatility, and keep people caught in their emotions (fear, greed). Just like a casino. Exactly like a casino.

Also it is important to realize that it is not easy to say what "wall street money" is going to do at any particular time. They are not one mind entity - they are competing whales, trying to get over on each other and at the same time pull as much coin from the clueless emotion-driven little guy as possible. This creates competition and more confusion if you are trying to understand what is going on. And also makes it very difficult for anyone entity to fully control what is happening. That is the genius of markets - even flawed and heavily manipulated ones.

Morale: If you are feeling fear when the price goes down and greed when the price goes up, there is a target on your coins. Lock them away carefully and do not play with the big boys. Or as Cat says above, you will certainly lose.

Although I am a very strong long-term bull, I love lower prices (I buy more coins). I also love high prices (I do nothing - well occasionally sell 10%).


BTW - Love the research done on the OP chart. Thanks for that! My own take....I believe (perhaps naively) that anyone who owns that many coins for this long, and was part of building this community early on has a strong incentive to do what is in BTC's best interest. Probably sold the coins to some player or company that will strengthen the ecosystem. I think we will see lot more of this as we forward, and the wealth of the early founders becomes massive. They will spend their btc to support and nurture the ecosystem. They are clearly very very rich men personally already.

[Ibian]

Once bitcoin becomes more widely spread it will be possibly (at least theoretically, for now) to do most of your business via localbitcoins. Or just local trade meets. The exchanges are a necessary, but ultimately temporary, part of bitcoins growth. But we won't have to rely on them forever.

[MatTheCat]

is bitcoin ever going to get a USA exchange?

kind of crazy that half the volume is USA based (or close to it), and there is not a single USA bitcoin exchange?

I think that would be a bullish signal for me (personally).

Not true.

I buy and sell Bitcoin mostly in USD.

I am from the UK, and the exchange I mostly use is in Slovenia.

Somewhat true, but only small part of the story. BTC market, like all commodity markets is now and will continue to be heavily manipulated by those with big resources. That's just the way it is. And an unregulated like market like btc even more so. Trying to beat them or deny them is just stupid. Understanding them and following them is smart.

A market like btc must be "conditioned" as part of the process of bringing big money to the table.  The market is "conditioned" by running the price up and down, shaking out weak hands, and enticing new money into the game - who will soon become future weak hands. Conditioning the market spreads the coins around, and ultimately grows the coffers of the big players - who are driving the market fluctuations. If the price stays too low for too long, you have no new money coming into the arena.  A depressed and sad market is not what the big money wants. They will drive prices down to capitulation levels, just long enough to shake out the fearful weak hands - without destroying the underlying market. If the price gets too far ahead, the big players can't get hold of enough new coins at low prices. So there is incentive for the big players to increase volatility, and keep people caught in their emotions (fear, greed). Just like a casino. Exactly like a casino.

Also it is important to realize that it is not easy to say what "wall street money" is going to do at any particular time. They are not one mind entity - they are competing whales, trying to get over on each other and at the same time pull as much coin from the clueless emotion-driven little guy as possible. This creates competition and more confusion if you are trying to understand what is going on. And also makes it very difficult for anyone entity to fully control what is happening. That is the genius of markets - even flawed and heavily manipulated ones.

Morale: If you are feeling fear when the price goes down and greed when the price goes up, there is a target on your coins. Lock them away carefully and do not play with the big boys. Or as Cat says above, you will certainly lose.

Although I am a very strong long-term bull, I love lower prices (I buy more coins). I also love high prices (I do nothing - well occasionally sell 10%).


BTW - Love the research done on the OP chart. Thanks for that! My own take....I believe (perhaps naively) that anyone who owns that many coins for this long, and was part of building this community early on has a strong incentive to do what is in BTC's best interest. Probably sold the coins to some player or company that will strengthen the ecosystem. I think we will see lot more of this as we forward, and the wealth of the early founders becomes massive. They will spend their btc to support and nurture the ecosystem. They are clearly very very rich men personally already.

Excellent post and interesting perspective on the BTC market and what forces may be be driving it.

[ORabbit]

is bitcoin ever going to get a USA exchange?

kind of crazy that half the volume is USA based (or close to it), and there is not a single USA bitcoin exchange?

I think that would be a bullish signal for me (personally).

CampBX?  Based in GA.  That's who I use.  I've never had a problem getting money out.  Getting USD in is a bit tricky though.

[bitrider]

... anyone who owns that many coins for this long, and was part of building this community early on has a strong incentive to do what is in BTC's best interest. Probably sold the coins to some player or company that will strengthen the ecosystem. I think we will see lot more of this as we forward, and the wealth of the early founders becomes massive. They will spend their btc to support and nurture the ecosystem.

I wrote that last night. And this morning...

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/blockchain-acquires-zeroblock-killer-app-191630464.html

QED? Could be...

Those guys definitely have lots of old coins.

Smile, fearful ones. Its Christmas. God Bless Us, Everyone.

[vual]

Im sorry i had to bump this this lol:

http://trollboxarchive.com/search.php?search_type=username&search=fontas

Fontas was trying to cash in, directing the trollbox the other day trying to grab some cheap coins.

[Eb0la]

we have a second blip!  looks like more cheap coins are coming!!!

https://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed-min-year

[scribe]

Our of curiosity - any chance the recent massive coin movements are related to what's happening at MtGox now?

I have this vague memory of hitting a MtGox-related address when I was tracing addresses, but couldn't swear to it and can't be bothered to trace it through again.