No ROI on future Mining, its a FACT!

[KensingtonLabs]

We are really curious about this too....what would the optimum price per GH/s be for a used mining rig these days? $10 a GH/s seems to be the the lowest I've seen for some of the higher capacity rigs.....would that really turn any kind of substantial profit or would it be completely obsolete after 2-3 months?

[klondike_bar]

We are really curious about this too....what would the optimum price per GH/s be for a used mining rig these days? $10 a GH/s seems to be the the lowest I've seen for some of the higher capacity rigs.....would that really turn any kind of substantial profit or would it be completely obsolete after 2-3 months?

thats terrible. You should be able to find an antminer used OR new for about $4-6/GH  ($700-1200)

[povlhp]

Lots of existing hardware using more than 2W/GHS will start to get unprofitable soo, and some of it wil be turned off, or resold to poor souls who plugs in in, realises it is bad, and tries to shift it on. The 2W/GHS will be profitable a little longer.

We have the 1W/GHS units coming up (Antminer S2, KnC and others). They will be profitable longer. But I see most of the units running today being turned off within the next year. If many gets out from the mining business, maybe we will have a difficulty decrease ? Or a slow increase in difficulty.

Profitability in mining lies with the success of getting peple to not buy more equipment, and turn their old stuff off. Difficulty increase needs to slow down. Lst one was 12% instead of the 20% before that. High difficulty increase can only be caused by new hardware. And since there is so much hardware out there, I don't see it increasign that much any more. I see it slowing down.

[zetaray]

Mining will yield profits if mining gears are priced lower. There will always be a second hand market for asics. They will be hinged to profits.

[SomeoneInNeed]

There is ROI, you just need to invest big.

[TheDragonSlayer]

There is ROI, you just need to invest big.

It doesn't matter if you invest big or small, as long as you cannot ROI on $/GHs its the same.

[DrG]

There is ROI, you just need to invest big.

Sure we lose on each item we sell, but we make it up in volume 

Fastest way to the bottom of a pit.

[pjviitas]

There is ROI, you just need to invest big.

Sure we lose on each item we sell, but we make it up in volume 

Fastest way to the bottom of a pit.

Its not even about ROI anymore...its about running out of spare breakers in your house.

[ShakyhandsBTCer]

There is ROI, you just need to invest big.

Sure we lose on each item we sell, but we make it up in volume 

Fastest way to the bottom of a pit.

Its not even about ROI anymore...its about running out of spare breakers in your house.

If you can have your machines hosted at a location that has cheap electricity then this is not an issue.

Most miners are being sold at prices that are above which would ever cause the machines to get ROI.

[zimmah]

there is no such thing as no ROI in mining, some people will make ROI or else no one will buy a miner.

If no one buys a new miner for long enough, difficulty will not increase (because only old miners are mining), while the technology improves to create more efficient miners. This will lead to mining being profitable again. Than people will again buy miners, until it becomes (close to) improbable again.

This is the cycle of mining

1) Mining is profitable
2) people buy new miners
3) difficulty increases
4) mining becomes unprofitable
5) people stop being miners (or at a reduced rate)
6) mining becomes profitable again
7) repeat from step 1

also note that being profitable or not depends on how much electricity your miner uses (J/GH) and how much you pay for electricity. Europeans sadly pay the highest price for electricity (up to $0.40 per kWh, while americans, russians and canadians pay much less, about $0.10 per kWh)

[brian_23452]

there is no such thing as no ROI in mining, some people will make ROI or else no one will buy a miner.

If no one buys a new miner for long enough, difficulty will not increase (because only old miners are mining), while the technology improves to create more efficient miners. This will lead to mining being profitable again. Than people will again buy miners, until it becomes (close to) improbable again.

You're wrong.  This is the cycle of mining:

1.  Asic company develops new miner.
2.  Asic company mines with new miner.
3.  Having used up the best part of it's profitability, Asic company sells miner to end user for more BTC than it will ever generate.
4.  End user mines with it indefinitely because the cost they payed is a sunk cost so why not.

So you see, it is very possible following this model for mining to never be profitable for "ordinary" people, while at the same time new asics continue to come out and drive up the difficulty.  Since really, only steps 1 and 2 are needed for difficulty to go up.  This is how it works now.

[ShakyhandsBTCer]

there is no such thing as no ROI in mining, some people will make ROI or else no one will buy a miner.

If no one buys a new miner for long enough, difficulty will not increase (because only old miners are mining), while the technology improves to create more efficient miners. This will lead to mining being profitable again. Than people will again buy miners, until it becomes (close to) improbable again.

You're wrong.  This is the cycle of mining:

1.  Asic company develops new miner.
2.  Asic company mines with new miner.
3.  Having used up the best part of it's profitability, Asic company sells miner to end user for more BTC than it will ever generate.
4.  End user mines with it indefinitely because the cost they payed is a sunk cost so why not.

So you see, it is very possible following this model for mining to never be profitable for "ordinary" people, while at the same time new asics continue to come out and drive up the difficulty.  Since really, only steps 1 and 2 are needed for difficulty to go up.  This is how it works now.

ASIC companies are testing the ethical limits by mining with the preorder miners. The preorder funds should be used for product development only, once the products are developed and determined to work per their standards the machines should ship.

[brian_23452]

there is no such thing as no ROI in mining, some people will make ROI or else no one will buy a miner.

If no one buys a new miner for long enough, difficulty will not increase (because only old miners are mining), while the technology improves to create more efficient miners. This will lead to mining being profitable again. Than people will again buy miners, until it becomes (close to) improbable again.

You're wrong.  This is the cycle of mining:

1.  Asic company develops new miner.
2.  Asic company mines with new miner.
3.  Having used up the best part of it's profitability, Asic company sells miner to end user for more BTC than it will ever generate.
4.  End user mines with it indefinitely because the cost they payed is a sunk cost so why not.

So you see, it is very possible following this model for mining to never be profitable for "ordinary" people, while at the same time new asics continue to come out and drive up the difficulty.  Since really, only steps 1 and 2 are needed for difficulty to go up.  This is how it works now.

ASIC companies are testing the ethical limits by mining with the preorder miners. The preorder funds should be used for product development only, once the products are developed and determined to work per their standards the machines should ship.

What do you expect?  When you preorder from one of these companies they typically make it very clear in their terms (the contract) that there is no guaranteed delivery date, and no penalty to be paid if they fail to deliver by a certain date.  Why anyone would agree to such terms is beyond me but people do, and then act surprised when the companies honor the contracts as it is written as opposed to what they feel should be "ethical", whatever that means in this context. 

[-ck]

Here's the warning I wrote in November 2012. Pertinent then, still relevant today.

What I really worry about, is that new hardware will continue to come out frequently enough that people end up on a cycle of investing in hardware that basically never pays itself off as slightly newer hardware and higher diffs keep coming out. Sure at some stage the limits of technology will be reached, but given the best tech at the moment is going to be 65nm ASICs when CPUs are 28nm devices, I can see the cycle going on for some time, and then even if btc mining ASICs end up in line with CPU manufacturers, they still continue to evolve over time. Dramatic profits from ASICs will likely only last a couple of weeks at most for a lucky few. The rest of you who paid for devices that don't even exist yet will not be making any magical profit no matter how big the hashrate appears. Your proportion of the total bitcoin hashrate will remain pitiful.

Sigh...

The period of the "couple of weeks for a lucky few" has long since passed.

[DrG]

Here's the warning I wrote in November 2012. Pertinent then, still relevant today.

What I really worry about, is that new hardware will continue to come out frequently enough that people end up on a cycle of investing in hardware that basically never pays itself off as slightly newer hardware and higher diffs keep coming out. Sure at some stage the limits of technology will be reached, but given the best tech at the moment is going to be 65nm ASICs when CPUs are 28nm devices, I can see the cycle going on for some time, and then even if btc mining ASICs end up in line with CPU manufacturers, they still continue to evolve over time. Dramatic profits from ASICs will likely only last a couple of weeks at most for a lucky few. The rest of you who paid for devices that don't even exist yet will not be making any magical profit no matter how big the hashrate appears. Your proportion of the total bitcoin hashrate will remain pitiful.

Sigh...

The period of the "couple of weeks for a lucky few" has long since passed.

Oh it's still there, but the few have names now: BFL, Avalon, Hashfast, etc etc....

I'm still shocked people were able to +ROI in BTC with S1s.

[zimmah]

there is no such thing as no ROI in mining, some people will make ROI or else no one will buy a miner.

If no one buys a new miner for long enough, difficulty will not increase (because only old miners are mining), while the technology improves to create more efficient miners. This will lead to mining being profitable again. Than people will again buy miners, until it becomes (close to) improbable again.

You're wrong.  This is the cycle of mining:

1.  Asic company develops new miner.
2.  Asic company mines with new miner.
3.  Having used up the best part of it's profitability, Asic company sells miner to end user for more BTC than it will ever generate.
4.  End user mines with it indefinitely because the cost they payed is a sunk cost so why not.

So you see, it is very possible following this model for mining to never be profitable for "ordinary" people, while at the same time new asics continue to come out and drive up the difficulty.  Since really, only steps 1 and 2 are needed for difficulty to go up.  This is how it works now.

ASIC companies are testing the ethical limits by mining with the preorder miners. The preorder funds should be used for product development only, once the products are developed and determined to work per their standards the machines should ship.

What do you expect?  When you preorder from one of these companies they typically make it very clear in their terms (the contract) that there is no guaranteed delivery date, and no penalty to be paid if they fail to deliver by a certain date.  Why anyone would agree to such terms is beyond me but people do, and then act surprised when the companies honor the contracts as it is written as opposed to what they feel should be "ethical", whatever that means in this context. 

It's probably because there is no other option, all miners are either obsolete or preorders. It impossable to buy profitable miners directly. Especially if you live in Europe where electricity prices are astronomical compared to the restof the world. (About 4 times more than in Canada and the USA)

[brian_23452]

there is no such thing as no ROI in mining, some people will make ROI or else no one will buy a miner.

If no one buys a new miner for long enough, difficulty will not increase (because only old miners are mining), while the technology improves to create more efficient miners. This will lead to mining being profitable again. Than people will again buy miners, until it becomes (close to) improbable again.

You're wrong.  This is the cycle of mining:

1.  Asic company develops new miner.
2.  Asic company mines with new miner.
3.  Having used up the best part of it's profitability, Asic company sells miner to end user for more BTC than it will ever generate.
4.  End user mines with it indefinitely because the cost they payed is a sunk cost so why not.

So you see, it is very possible following this model for mining to never be profitable for "ordinary" people, while at the same time new asics continue to come out and drive up the difficulty.  Since really, only steps 1 and 2 are needed for difficulty to go up.  This is how it works now.

ASIC companies are testing the ethical limits by mining with the preorder miners. The preorder funds should be used for product development only, once the products are developed and determined to work per their standards the machines should ship.

What do you expect?  When you preorder from one of these companies they typically make it very clear in their terms (the contract) that there is no guaranteed delivery date, and no penalty to be paid if they fail to deliver by a certain date.  Why anyone would agree to such terms is beyond me but people do, and then act surprised when the companies honor the contracts as it is written as opposed to what they feel should be "ethical", whatever that means in this context. 

It's probably because there is no other option, all miners are either obsolete or preorders. It impossable to buy profitable miners directly. Especially if you live in Europe where electricity prices are astronomical compared to the restof the world. (About 4 times more than in Canada and the USA)

Some people would say that not buying it at all would be another option.

[xstr8guy]

there is no such thing as no ROI in mining, some people will make ROI or else no one will buy a miner.

If no one buys a new miner for long enough, difficulty will not increase (because only old miners are mining), while the technology improves to create more efficient miners. This will lead to mining being profitable again. Than people will again buy miners, until it becomes (close to) improbable again.

You're wrong.  This is the cycle of mining:

1.  Asic company develops new miner.
2.  Asic company mines with new miner.
3.  Having used up the best part of it's profitability, Asic company sells miner to end user for more BTC than it will ever generate.
4.  End user mines with it indefinitely because the cost they payed is a sunk cost so why not.

So you see, it is very possible following this model for mining to never be profitable for "ordinary" people, while at the same time new asics continue to come out and drive up the difficulty.  Since really, only steps 1 and 2 are needed for difficulty to go up.  This is how it works now.

Don't forget the "X Factor"... the infamous "preorder". People invest in miners that won't be delivered for many months. The investment looks great on paper. That is until the miners are many months late and when they are finally delivered, profitability has gone POOF!

No one can make a sound investment without a crystal ball. Some have been very lucky with their timing and have been successful. I have been VERY lucky myself. But the forum is filled with sad sacks who have been absolutely raped by ASIC vendors. And I'm not talking about outright scams. I'm talking about (semi) legitimate companies that have had horrendous delays or have been lured by the bitcoin siren to hash with customer machines for months before delivering.

[film2240]

Everyone should stop mining. And buy bitcoins instead. 

I'd really wish people would just stop mining for a while,that way the difficulty will drop significantly,buy BTC and then when the difficulty is much lower,mine again and you profit in both ways,more mined BTC and returns from the BTC you bought as well.

But I'm also sure that until the big mining operations stop (like companies,data centres,large scale mining farms) there's not much point in normal people stopping their mining operations either.

[xstr8guy]

Everyone should stop mining. And buy bitcoins instead.  

I'd really wish people would just stop mining for a while,that way the difficulty will drop significantly,buy BTC and then when the difficulty is much lower,mine again and you profit in both ways,more mined BTC and returns from the BTC you bought as well.

But I'm also sure that until the big mining operations stop (like companies,data centres,large scale mining farms) there's not much point in normal people stopping their mining operations either.

And as soon as people start mining again, the difficulty, at the next adjustment, returns to exactly where it was when they quit. What would be the point? You've just delayed the inevitable.

Be honest now. What you really meant was that you wish everyone would stop mining... except you.