Official Bitcoin Price Prediction for Dec 31, 2014

[mlferro]

I think it will be between $ 290.00 and $ 300.00

but I hope to be 100% wrong, and the value is greater

[nauane]

$320,00

[Sadique]

One million dollars!

Hahaha seriously about $200

[carlosiness]

I believe it will be above the 320$. But this is very good price..

[ParabellumLite]

All them 1000+ guesses on the first pages. Delusional it was in hindsight. But hindsight is always better .

[BRE]

$380 is the most reasonable price in this january 2015 , we hope more but from 1st November its hard to reach $ 400.

[sniveling]

All them 1000+ guesses on the first pages. Delusional it was in hindsight. But hindsight is always better .

Judging from past performance most waves hit their low point in far less than a year, then started to climb up. I expect those people posting on the first page thought we would hit the low a few months after January then hit another high either before or after Christmas.

[NotLambchop]

People just wanted to believe that price was going to follow y = x^xxx

[Nagle]

The median of the guesses is in the $2K-$3K range. 

With the current price at $317, 2014 will end in the $100 - $500 range. That's a big target. Next year, please provide poll options no more than 2x apart. 

[Betwrong]

funny that most ppl voted $10,000+ 

[JimboToronto]

funny that most ppl voted $10,000+ 

Most of those people voted when the price was over $800, after having reached $1100, crashing to $550, bouncing back to almost $1000 and bottoming at <$400.

This followed a year that saw the price increase 100-fold through 2 bubbles.

If you'd checked the results at the end of January, you'd have found that the vast majority thought we'd see another bubble by midsummer.

Hindsight is always 20/20.

[DeadCoin]

Looking at the poll you can already see 4 groups of people 

Pessimists <$50
Missed the boaters $100-$500
Realists $3000-$7500
Optimists/Hodlers >$10000

Boat is back, why aren't you buying like crazy?

[yefi]

People just wanted to believe that price was going to follow y = x^xxx

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        O              O
x_{xxxxxxxxxxxxzzzzzzzzzzz}zx_{xxxxxxxxxxxxzzzzzzzzzzz}z

          x_{xxxxxxxxxxxxx}

[JimboToronto]

just quick statistics based on 151 votes



139 - 92% of respondents believe it will be at least $2,000 by december

if we're to go by the majority, it looks like entering the bitcoin market at under $2,000 is a REASONABLE RISK if we believe it will be at least $2k by the end of the year.

The prevailing opinion at the time was that 4 digits was pretty much a given. 3k-7.5k was considered realistic.

Bear in mind though that this was before Gox crashed and burned. That changed everything.

It's easy for those who didn't join in until springtime to laugh at those numbers as being too high.

That's why they only make themselves look like fools when they smugly drag up old predictions that didn't pan out but were mainstream at the time.

[Tzupy]

By the time Gox went down its market share had shrunk, so it was important, but didn't "change everything", the bubble had to deflate anyway.
Unless you believe that Willy the bot could have continued to pump up the price with fake fiat up to 10k$.
Reading the first pages of this thread made me LOL, even the creator of this thread was a delusional permabull back then.

[JimboToronto]

By the time Gox went down its market share had shrunk, so it was important, but didn't "change everything", the bubble had to deflate anyway.
Unless you believe that Willy the bot could have continued to pump up the price with fake fiat up to 10k$.
Reading the first pages of this thread made me LOL, even the creator of this thread was a delusional permabull back then.

 

Part of the reason why Gox's demise changed everything was that Willy's existence wasn't discovered until Gox went down.

Hopefully even a permabear can grasp that concept.

[zoukenn]

Why don't you insert a parameter from 100$ and 500$ because at the end of year price will go around 100$ and 500$ ! Waiting for a future raise, maybe in the next year

[Tzupy]

By the time Gox went down its market share had shrunk, so it was important, but didn't "change everything", the bubble had to deflate anyway.
Unless you believe that Willy the bot could have continued to pump up the price with fake fiat up to 10k$.
Reading the first pages of this thread made me LOL, even the creator of this thread was a delusional permabull back then.

 

Part of the reason why Gox's demise changed everything was that Willy's existence wasn't discovered until Gox went down.

Hopefully even a permabear can grasp that concept.

So YOU DO believe that the price could have been pumped to 10k$ with fake fiat if the bot wouldn't have stopped.
I am for a genuine market, not a heavily manipulated one, and couldn't understand how easy some resistance levels were broken in 2013, now I know: it was faked.
The manipulator's plan (MtGox inside job IMO) was to build what looked like a genuine bubble with fake fiat, and then true fiat would come to the bubble.
He succeeded, but now the bubble has to deflate harder than "normal", because it has been faked for a long time.

[unent]

All them 1000+ guesses on the first pages. Delusional it was in hindsight. But hindsight is always better .

The poll shows 18.5% thought it will be $10,000+ but only 12.3% thought it will be between $100 and $500. Only a small minority are probably going to be right. In future polls I'm considering assuming the majority could be wrong.

[skivrmt]

All them 1000+ guesses on the first pages. Delusional it was in hindsight. But hindsight is always better .

The poll shows 18.5% thought it will be $10,000+ but only 12.3% thought it will be between $100 and $500. Only a small minority are probably going to be right. In future polls I'm considering assuming the majority could be wrong.

In any poll where most people have a financial incentive for the price to be higher rather than lower I wouldn't go with the majority.