Downtrend started?

[piramida]

Dude, he's joking around

Methinks there is a program out there which generates accounts spamming Primedice advertisements on this forum. Influx of new users which post incomprehensible gibberish and all of them have primedice promo link in their signature. Pattern! Easy way to make money, they think. Turn the forum into a dump, they do.

[porcupine87]

Is this a downtrend or just a correction?

Personally, I believe we will see this downtrend in the next weeks, until we reach the 500 USD levels.

If we compare the china-bubble to the april-bubble, we see some similarities:
After the bubble, we trended down for several weeks from 150 USD towards 65 USD! I do not think we will trend down that much this time, but a downtrend will happen I guess.
After the downtrend, we saw slow growth and a lot of merchant interest. That phase will be bullish for bitcoin, triggering a new bubble.

Thoughts?

So after the Juni11 bubble it took nearly 2 years to reach that level again(30$). After the april13 bubble it took 6 months to reach that level again(250$). And now, how long will it take to see the level of the november bubble again (1200$)? 24 months, 6 month, 1.5month?

I like that forecasts ("eehh, last time it was 6month, so now it will be 6 month again")

[T.Stuart]

Is this a downtrend or just a correction?

Personally, I believe we will see this downtrend in the next weeks, until we reach the 500 USD levels.

If we compare the china-bubble to the april-bubble, we see some similarities:
After the bubble, we trended down for several weeks from 150 USD towards 65 USD! I do not think we will trend down that much this time, but a downtrend will happen I guess.
After the downtrend, we saw slow growth and a lot of merchant interest. That phase will be bullish for bitcoin, triggering a new bubble.

Thoughts?

So after the Juni11 bubble it took nearly 2 years to reach that level again(30$). After the april13 bubble it took 6 months to reach that level again(250$). And now, how long will it take to see the level of the november bubble again (1200$)? 24 months, 6 month, 1.5month?

I like that forecasts ("eehh, last time it was 6month, so now it will be 6 month again")

Around 1.5 months then.... Oh golly! Everything fits so perfectly! 

Thanks for that! 

[firstlast]

Price went from 130 to 65 in July because MtGox froze all fiat withdrawals for two weeks^_TM. Such a thing has not happened this time around, so we are not in a downtrend, but more uncharted territory.

[MAbtc]

Price went from 130 to 65 in July because MtGox froze all fiat withdrawals for two weeks^_TM. Such a thing has not happened this time around, so we are not in a downtrend, but more uncharted territory.

I don't think this had anything to do with it.

I smell more than a small correction to the uptrend here. We'll see.

[billyjoeallen]

 

I sense this is either a bull trap or the mother of all bear traps. If it's a bear trap, we're going to the moon, guys. I'm confused as hell and have never seen BTC behave this way before, so I'm hodling as I already broke even on USD (even without the $997 Mt Gox owes me). I'm riding this badger all the way up or down. YEE Haw!!

[Miz4r]

Downtrend?  FFS were you asleep this weekend?

no, but I sold some today. Think the downtrend is starting.

Were those your coins I got at 875 on stamp?

They might have been mine.

I impulse panic sold at $880! Funniest of all is that I had just 60 minutes earlier paid $931 for for 5 of them, the remaining 17 I paid £835 for.......

.......this is the second time I have cost myself dearly due to babysitting/checking charts at inopportune moments. In my defense, Bitcoin moves far too rapidly and schizophrenically.

I think you need some HODL therapy. I've heard it works wonders.

[arepo]

 

I sense this is either a bull trap or the mother of all bear traps. If it's a bear trap, we're going to the moon, guys. I'm confused as hell and have never seen BTC behave this way before, so I'm hodling as I already broke even on USD (even without the $997 Mt Gox owes me). I'm riding this badger all the way up or down. YEE Haw!!

you've been here quite some time to say you've never seen it behave this way... i wouldn't say it's anything out of the ordinary besides the obvious differences in price environment.

[YoYa]

If we compare the china-bubble to the april bubble, we see some similarities:

After the bubble, we trended down for several weeks from 150 USD towards 65 USD! I do not think we will trand down that much this time, but a downtrend will happen I guess.
After the downtrend, we saw slow growth and a lot of merchant interest. That phase will be bullish for bitcoin, triggering a new bubble.

Just judging by the technical analysis I see, and based on the data coming in from sources from China and such, we're definitely in a downtrend that will probably certainly last between 3 months and 18 months and will go at least as low as the last double channel triple shoulder top a few months ago, just following the trend lines from the 2-3 day moving average oscillator.  That means the price will likely go at least to $78, before rebounding to new ATHs in 2018.  There is black swan chance the price will follow the more dramatic downtrend indicated by the exponential channel and we could see prices retest $2.

I'm really looking forward to this, other people's capitulation equals further consolidation for those who do not blind themselves to the unfurling reality. We shall see the true depth of the newly invested's levels of belief as the year(s) roll on.

[billyjoeallen]

What I mean is this is not usual post-rally behavior. First of all, it's the first "bubble" (actually it's a rally because BTC never goes again below it's pre-bubble price) with a double top. It's proportionally much smaller than the 2011 and April rallies, and volatility hasn't dropped much yet. Consolidation should occur in the $700-$800 range, yet it's over %80 of the ATH. Just weird. I was counting on being bored for three months. Now I'm just confused. Maybe it's just the fact that my stash is worth so much more now that makes me nervous. We're talking serious coin on the line now. It's like WSOP final table. play to get in the money or play to win? lock in a fortune or go for multi-generational wealth? I guess that's a good problem to have! ;-)

[Skinnkavaj]

Talk about retarded making polls with more than Yes or No answers, especially a simple question like this

[skivrmt]

What I mean is this is not usual post-rally behavior. First of all, it's the first "bubble" (actually it's a rally because BTC never goes again below it's pre-bubble price) with a double top. It's proportionally much smaller than the 2011 and April rallies, and volatility hasn't dropped much yet. Consolidation should occur in the $700-$800 range, yet it's over %80 of the ATH. Just weird. I was counting on being bored for three months. Now I'm just confused. Maybe it's just the fact that my stash is worth so much more now that makes me nervous. We're talking serious coin on the line now. It's like WSOP final table. play to get in the money or play to win? lock in a fortune or go for multi-generational wealth? I guess that's a good problem to have! ;-)

Why cant you do both? Lock in a small fortune and using poker terms, go for a freeroll for multigenerational wealth. Thats my play if i had as many coin as I think you might have

[billyjoeallen]

What I mean is this is not usual post-rally behavior. First of all, it's the first "bubble" (actually it's a rally because BTC never goes again below it's pre-bubble price) with a double top. It's proportionally much smaller than the 2011 and April rallies, and volatility hasn't dropped much yet. Consolidation should occur in the $700-$800 range, yet it's over %80 of the ATH. Just weird. I was counting on being bored for three months. Now I'm just confused. Maybe it's just the fact that my stash is worth so much more now that makes me nervous. We're talking serious coin on the line now. It's like WSOP final table. play to get in the money or play to win? lock in a fortune or go for multi-generational wealth? I guess that's a good problem to have! ;-)

Why cant you do both? Lock in a small fortune and using poker terms, go for a freeroll for multigenerational wealth. Thats my play if i had as many coin as I think you might have

I'm still an order or two of magnitude away from doing that. I bought in around $10/BTC, not $0.10/BTC ;-)

[T.Stuart]

If we compare the china-bubble to the april bubble, we see some similarities:

After the bubble, we trended down for several weeks from 150 USD towards 65 USD! I do not think we will trand down that much this time, but a downtrend will happen I guess.
After the downtrend, we saw slow growth and a lot of merchant interest. That phase will be bullish for bitcoin, triggering a new bubble.

Just judging by the technical analysis I see, and based on the data coming in from sources from China and such, we're definitely in a downtrend that will probably certainly last between 3 months and 18 months and will go at least as low as the last double channel triple shoulder top a few months ago, just following the trend lines from the 2-3 day moving average oscillator.  That means the price will likely go at least to $78, before rebounding to new ATHs in 2018.  There is black swan chance the price will follow the more dramatic downtrend indicated by the exponential channel and we could see prices retest $2.

I'm really looking forward to this, other people's capitulation equals further consolidation for those who do not blind themselves to the unfurling reality. We shall see the true depth of the newly invested's levels of belief as the year(s) roll on.

Giving yourself a few years for a downtrend seems like a sensible analysis to me! 

[Voodah]

A big correction certainly lurks ahead, but $78 is just delusional.

Never ever? Never ever ever.

[billyjoeallen]

A big correction certainly lurks ahead, but $78 is just delusional.

Never ever? Never ever ever.

I'm seeing massive negative sentiment. Yeah, I know the graphs are looking scary, but with this much gloom, I'm wondering if it might be overdone a little bit.

[TERA]

A big correction certainly lurks ahead, but $78 is just delusional.

Never ever? Never ever ever.

I'm seeing massive negative sentiment. Yeah, I know the graphs are looking scary, but with this much gloom, I'm wondering if it might be overdone a little bit.

What gloom are you referring to? To me it seems the sentiment on the forum is "omg wall street and new commericial adoption. btc straight to the moon gagnam style"

[T.Stuart]

A big correction certainly lurks ahead, but $78 is just delusional.

Never ever? Never ever ever.

I'm seeing massive negative sentiment. Yeah, I know the graphs are looking scary, but with this much gloom, I'm wondering if it might be overdone a little bit.

What gloom are you referring to? To me it seems the sentiment on the forum is "omg wall street and new commericial adoption. btc straight to the moon gagnam style"

I wouldn't say that + $20 / +30 per day is gangnam style, but it certainly is very positive, very rewarding, very steady and... very normal according to the  log scale... growth.

[billyjoeallen]

A big correction certainly lurks ahead, but $78 is just delusional.

Never ever? Never ever ever.

I'm seeing massive negative sentiment. Yeah, I know the graphs are looking scary, but with this much gloom, I'm wondering if it might be overdone a little bit.

What gloom are you referring to? To me it seems the sentiment on the forum is "omg wall street and new commericial adoption. btc straight to the moon gagnam style"

I'm talking about the TA tea readers. They remind me of that crazy guy in A Beautiful Mind who saw patterns in random data noise. every movement fits a pattern after the fact, but that's not very useful for predictions.  

[arepo]

I'm talking about the TA tea readers. They remind me of that crazy guy in A Beautiful Mind who saw patterns in random data noise. every movement fits a pattern after the fact, but that's not very useful for predictions.  

well, how do you gauge the market then? not using patterns of any sort, oh no, i'm sure price history is completely irrelevant right?