Why 9-month payoffs are still foolish

[TeaL]

Even if you're comparing your mining return to interest at a bank (which, admittedly, is quite low), it's still silly to buy cards that won't pay off for 9 or more months.

Besides the usual argument, "Bitcoin could be $3 in a few months!" which no one can really refute...

What if the 7000 series cards have a much better stream processor count?  Another thread mentioned them having *double* the stream processors. That's only a rumor, of course, but what if something like that happened? Does any of us know what the 7000 will bring? Isn't it prudent to wait until the details have been released, before sinking one's savings into 6990s?

Those who *didn't* buy cards with a long payout will be in a better position, because they can buy the 7000 series cards and keep up with the difficulty increases that will no doubt ensue.

Those already "invested" in $500 5970's and 6990s will have to watch their returns diminish, and won't have as much capital (or free slots) for 7000 series cards as everyone else.

So there are many things to consider when you go "all in" at this point.

Speaking as the owner of 2 6990s, I'd like to point out that no matter the power of the 7XXX series cards, the rigs we have still retain value.

For example; lets say the 7XXX series cards come out, and they do have 2* the stream processor count. This should mean they are more expensive than the previous generation (because of these improvements). With the 6990 topping $700, I would find it hard to see anyone other than extreme enthusiasts buying these cards. This is one of the two problems for the new 7XXX series of cards.

With this cost, it's very unlikely most pre-built manufacturers (everyone from ibuypower & newegg types, to HP and DELL) would see these cards as a viable option for their machines.
The second problem is the bulk purchase of the older generation of cards. When a large manufacturer like HP, or DELL etc.. Build a line of computers they buy / order the items in bulk. This means they can only afford to integrate the latest and greatest into their lines very slowly, especially when the cost is so high.

This means for a decent amount of time the old 6XXX series of cards are still the best you can get without huge financing & building it yourself. The effect of this is that I can still sell my computer for a more than reasonable price even after the 7XXX series has been released, because no-one will be able to; afford / get them in a pre-built.

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[Departure]

shipments increased to 140 million units, up 22 million units from this quarter last year.

Thats in 1 quarter for AMD, How many miners again? and you still think mining has an impact? lol wake up son there is a bigger world out there than your back yard....

[NetTecture]

lets say the 7XXX series cards come out, and they do have 2* the stream processor count. This should mean they are more expensive than the previous generation (because of these improvements).

Yeah, because this is what happened in the past.

Dude, the WHOLE idea of the 7xxx series for ATI is to offer more power for the same cost. Due to the die shrink the plan is pack more than double the stream processors, at a higher frequency rate on top, into the same silicon.

No, it wont be twice as expensive, and it will an immediate have an impact on the old hardware prices when it is available. They will be a little more expensive, but not massively so.

[stryker]

being a bit big headed here guys  its not will amd do a card for miners, but a Q of will they do one for everyone everywhere who wants a math processor like nvidia tesla....  hell they have sunk a lot of effort in their SDKs so maybe they should sell specialised cards now?!?

[gw4tt]

AMD will improve performance in gaming with the 7xxx series cards. That's for sure. That's their target market.

Nvidia has some good cards for gaming, but they're garbage for mining.

So, as far as mining goes, who knows? No one will know until they're out. They're not designed for mining. Plain and simple.

[wndrbr3d]

Wrong...

Bitcoin has had a huge impact on availible AMD GPUs..

Plain and simple

ask any local major computer store..  

Other than anecdotal evidence, do you have any numbers to back up your claims? Limited supply of a previous generation GPU line doesn't equal Bitcoin making a huge impact. There's still PLENTY of 68xx and 69xx cards on store shelves.

58xx series cards sell out so quickly not because there's this abundant supply from the manufacturer and people keep snatching them up, it's because manufactures are moving into production of 7xxx and continuing production of 68xx and 69xx cards.

If you want anecdotal evidence that has some technical merit, go stand outside your local computer store and ask people (1) what kind of video card do they have, and (b) if they game or use Bitcoin. I'll let you guess which one will probably beat out the other 10:1.

Don't get me wrong, I *heart* Bitcoin, but just because it's big to this small community (and it is a small community) doesn't mean it's making a dramatic impact on the marketplace. Especially to the point where a manufacturer would change product direction to cater to it.

[NetTecture]

This is especialyl true as the manifacturing lines are long planned out and - well - nothing is lost to AMD by just waiting. They will ramp up production of high end chips a notch in due time (when it meets their factory timeline, latest in the 7000 generation) to cater some higher demand from the miners, but THAT IS IT.

Definitely nothing to do more than think "ok, we may sell 50% more of the 7990 than without mining".

I personally lok forward to the 7xxx series - finally a step that is long done on the CPU front. Should take down power usage as well as give a significant performance boost for my other favourite usages.

[KarlSpaat]

Even if you're comparing your mining return to interest at a bank (which, admittedly, is quite low), it's still silly to buy cards that won't pay off for 9 or more months.

Besides the usual argument, "Bitcoin could be $3 in a few months!" which no one can really refute...

What if the 7000 series cards have a much better stream processor count?  Another thread mentioned them having *double* the stream processors. That's only a rumor, of course, but what if something like that happened? Does any of us know what the 7000 will bring? Isn't it prudent to wait until the details have been released, before sinking one's savings into 6990s?

Those who *didn't* buy cards with a long payout will be in a better position, because they can buy the 7000 series cards and keep up with the difficulty increases that will no doubt ensue.

Those already "invested" in $500 5970's and 6990s will have to watch their returns diminish, and won't have as much capital (or free slots) for 7000 series cards as everyone else.

So there are many things to consider when you go "all in" at this point.

When are you gonna stop discouraging people from mining and/or increasing theu hash rates by bringing online new cards?

Your posts are so predictable and very consistent!

This doesnt change the fact, that he is right

[Bitcoin_Silver_Supply]

Angelus' usual theme of crying wolf over difficulty hasn't been holding up so well recently with two decreases in a row... Now he must turn attention towards fearmongering over price drops and speculation on upcoming cards.

As another poster stated, the greatest investments always come with great risk. If you don't have money to risk in BTC then it's a good idea to stay out until you do. If you do have money to blow on it, then follow Angelus' lead (not his rhetoric) and go all out. How do I know he has hypocritically gone all out while subsequently working a part time job fearmongering on mining forums, you ask?

Well, because he has one miner working 5.6 Ghash on Deepbit alone:

[mike678]

Well, because he has one miner working 5.6 Ghash on Deepbit alone:

I always wondered how much he had. I knew he probably had a sizable investment but no specifics. In all reality 5.6 ghash is only about 3-4 machines worth so its not like he has invested 10's of thousands.

[CanaryInTheMine]

In all likelihood he has a lot more, but split between other pools and maybe even between deepbit and some solo setup.  deepbit gives him constant income to pay electricity and solo is his true motive to hoard bitcoin. LOL

[AngelusWebDesign]

I have 20 cards total, no more than 3 per machine. I bought everything at a good or great price.
I've been slowly building up since I started in late May of this year; I stopped expanding right before the August 6 crash; I haven't bought a card since.
I'm glad my cards have all had a chance to partially pay for themselves; but most of that payoff happened before August 6!
Maybe 10% of the money I made came in during the last month; the other 90% came during the first 2 1/3 months. The profitability of Bitcoin has gone way down. Who hasn't noticed that?

Of course those who are already set up to mine are going to keep doing so.

BTW, I am supposed to have more like 6.1 or 6.2 GH/s, but many of my cards are throttled down to almost 50% of normal hashrate, so they don't overheat. I'm in south central Texas, were it STILL gets up over 100 every single day and only goes down to 81 in the middle of the night. No free cooling for me. I have my machines in a "hotroom" of sorts -- a game room converted into non-air-conditioned space. I was sick of the excess heat warming up the rest of my house.

[CanaryInTheMine]

I have 20 cards total, no more than 3 per machine. I bought everything at a good or great price.
I've been slowly building up since I started in late May of this year; I stopped expanding right before the August 6 crash; I haven't bought a card since.
I'm glad my cards have all had a chance to partially pay for themselves; but most of that payoff happened before August 6!
Maybe 10% of the money I made came in during the last month; the other 90% came during the first 2 1/3 months. The profitability of Bitcoin has gone way down.

Of course those who are already set up to mine are going to keep doing so.

so stop discouraging!  I understand your motive is to see difficulty continue dropping so that you can speed up your 100% payoff
but, if you want to stop giving yourself an ulcer, just stop mining and write everything off.  problem solved.

[AngelusWebDesign]

I was asking an honest question. I was merely trying to start a discussion about 7000 series cards -- why don't YOU stop giving yourself an ulcer.

[AngelusWebDesign]

Actually, it's my "critics" that are the selfish ones -- they drool over the used, after-market 6990s and 5970's they are going to pick up when various miners find out the truth about current Bitcoin profitability

The more people sink their money into them, the more units will be sold on the aftermarket.

So you can speculate about my "true motives", and I can speculate about yours. Neither of us can prove our suspicions true or false. So why go there?

Isn't it a foregone conclusion that all miners on this board want difficulty to go down, and would like to discourage people? I could point to DOZENS of threads and posts that are much more discouraging than any of mine (past or present). I don't know why I'm so memorable.

[Bitcoin_Silver_Supply]

Angelus you are memorable because of how passionately and consistently you pursue your goal of discouraging newcomers. Most mining trolls come on, post a few times and are then never heard of again. You, however, really have made this a part time job and that is remarkable.

I actually agree with many of your concerns but again it's a question of risk vs potential for reward. Everyone, even the biggest BTC bulls (many of which are also trolls), know that this project could implode at any moment. The excitement in this whole endeavor is that noone knows and everyone is left to do their own cost-benefit analysis on what they can afford to put into risk. At the end of the day it's only worthwhile if you have the money to invest and are willing to take losses.

I sympathize on mining in Texas. Things are a little easier up north..

[CanaryInTheMine]

Actually, it's my "critics" that are the selfish ones -- they drool over the used, after-market 6990s and 5970's they are going to pick up when various miners find out the truth about current Bitcoin profitability

The more people sink their money into them, the more units will be sold on the aftermarket.

So you can speculate about my "true motives", and I can speculate about yours. Neither of us can prove our suspicions true or false. So why go there?

Isn't it a foregone conclusion that all miners on this board want difficulty to go down, and would like to discourage people? I could point to DOZENS of threads and posts that are much more discouraging than any of mine (past or present). I don't know why I'm so memorable.

you start these things... so don't try talking as if your constant and consistent theme is somehow shared... it it not.

I for one hope that difficulty increases 3-4 fold.  You know why?  because that would mean bitcoin would be mainstream and adopted as a payment system.

unless bitcoin is adopted and becomes mainstream, we will just hover around where we are today.

I want it to explode.  I want it to be the next paypal and without more adoption and more mining it ain't gonna happen.

Stop being so shortsighted.  Where's your vision of bitcoin?  

[CanaryInTheMine]

What if the 7000 series cards have a much better stream processor count?

Just like the 6990 has more stream processors than the 5970? Oh, wait, it doesn't.

Does any of us know what the 7000 will bring?

Nope. All we can do is analyze how previous generations progressed, and extrapolate from there. From the 5000 to 6000 brought about...no change in mining capability. It's highly unlikely the 7000 will be any different. AMD designed it long ago, long before Bitcoin was as big as it is now.

That's because both the 5x and the 6x are on 40nm thingamaboppers.  The 7x are gonna be on 28nm thingamaboppers.  The extra space can/is going to be used for stream processors.

I share your understanding and the urge to point things out to those who are clueless about technology...

However, you are wasting your breath.  The fact is most people (even though current miners here are a smart and tech savvy bunch) do not understand fully what it means to go down to 28.  therefore they make stupid comments with references to prior experience based on different technology.  boys and girls it ain't apples to oranges.

[AngelusWebDesign]

you start these things... so don't try talking as if your constant and consistent theme is somehow shared... it it not.

I for one hope that difficulty increases 3-4 fold.  You know why?  because that would mean bitcoin would be mainstream and adopted as a payment system.

unless bitcoin is adopted and becomes mainstream, we will just hover around where we are today.

I want it to explode.  I want it to be the next paypal and without more adoption and more mining it ain't gonna happen.

Stop being so shortsighted.  Where's your vision of bitcoin?  

So every post that is in any way negative to Bitcoin somehow has me behind it? I didn't know I was that powerful.  
Especially since many "negative" threads are started and finished without one post of participation from me.

I also hope that Bitcoin goes mainstream. I actually have a credit card merchant account, and believe me there are few things that are that much of a pain in the butt (maybe going to the dentist, or having a colo-rectal exam?) I kid you not; they add fees every month it seems! I can't wait until I can just accept Bitcoin and drop my merchant account.

We are all allowed to discuss whatever comes to our minds on here last time I checked. I'm not going to shelve half the topics and posts I think up just because someone might get the wrong idea that I'm on a calculated campaign to discourage people. Too bad for them. I'm not a troll, my posts are perfectly in accordance with the ToS, I haven't been banned yet (and am not about to be), so there's no problem with me. If you don't like my posts, DON'T READ THEM.

Truth never hurt anyone. I'm just discussing the situation as it evolves. It shouldn't be threatening to anyone who isn't doing something stupid.

The last thing I called "ridiculous" on was $160 5830's on eBay. 2 weeks later, they were no longer a reality. I also called for sub-$1000 PCs back in 1996 (I even lost my computer store job to prove it -- I didn't sell enough high-end PCs, because I saw that a 133 Pentium was about the same as a 200 Pentium, even though the former was $1400 and the latter was $3000) I was also recommending people get out of the stock market and buy gold in 2007 (when it was $650 -- it's currently $1800 something) So I have been known to have decent "vision".

[CanaryInTheMine]

you start these things... so don't try talking as if your constant and consistent theme is somehow shared... it it not.

I for one hope that difficulty increases 3-4 fold.  You know why?  because that would mean bitcoin would be mainstream and adopted as a payment system.

unless bitcoin is adopted and becomes mainstream, we will just hover around where we are today.

I want it to explode.  I want it to be the next paypal and without more adoption and more mining it ain't gonna happen.

Stop being so shortsighted.  Where's your vision of bitcoin?  

So every post that is in any way negative to Bitcoin somehow has me behind it? I didn't know I was that powerful.  
Especially since many "negative" threads are started and finished without one post of participation from me.

I also hope that Bitcoin goes mainstream. I actually have a credit card merchant account, and believe me there are few things that are that much of a pain in the butt (maybe going to the dentist, or having a colo-rectal exam?) I kid you not; they add fees every month it seems! I can't wait until I can just accept Bitcoin and drop my merchant account.

We are all allowed to discuss whatever comes to our minds on here last time I checked. I'm not going to shelve half the topics and posts I think up just because someone might get the wrong idea that I'm on a calculated campaign to discourage people. Too bad for them. I'm not a troll, my posts are perfectly in accordance with the ToS, I haven't been banned yet (and am not about to be), so there's no problem with me. If you don't like my posts, DON'T READ THEM.

Truth never hurt anyone. I'm just discussing the situation as it evolves. It shouldn't be threatening to anyone who isn't doing something stupid.

The last thing I called "ridiculous" on was $160 5830's on eBay. 2 weeks later, they were no longer a reality. I also called for sub-$1000 PCs back in 1996 (I even lost my computer store job to prove it -- I didn't sell enough high-end PCs, because I saw that a 133 Pentium was about the same as a 200 Pentium, even though the former was $1400 and the latter was $3000) I was also recommending people get out of the stock market and buy gold in 2007 (when it was $650 -- it's currently $1800 something) So I have been known to have decent "vision".

don't take me the wrong way.  I don't "disagree" with your posts in short term or if you consider what you are saying in a small or limited construct/view. 
Honestly, your posts give me the most chuckles for some reason.

I am glad that you do see the big picture and want the same.

Anyway, have fun with your posts... see you around.  I look forward to your new posts and bemusing responses.