The Log Chart Myth

[d'aniel]

Honestly, none of the graphs really work if you are in for long term predictions (since you are including 1 year of data, I assume we are talking about mid/long term). An year ago we had like 10 people with great technical knowlege. Right now, we have 1000 people and 90% only wants to profit. Next year, bitcon could be outlawed, completely dead or it could be flourishing.

There are a lot of changes in the userbase and in the environment surrounding bitcons that make it very very difficult to predict long term prices (with or without charts).

I think you're mistaken.  We're not looking to make predictions from these graphs (at least I'm not, and neither was niko).  They simply present a story about the past.

[d'aniel]

I don't think it's short sighted at all to divide things into pre/post publicity blitz. The 'early investors' came in April/May 2011. Before that I wouldn't describe the people using bitcoin way before that as investors.... maybe 'bitcoin enthusiasts' would be a better term. Do you think the guy who bought a pizza for 20000 bitcoins was an 'early investor'? Hugely different number of people with hugely different motivations = hugely different market, sorry

I agree with your reasoning.  This one tells the story of the bubble alone:


Could be a long ride down if none of the capital accumulated during the media blitz ends up sticking.  I'd bet at least some will, though.

[osmosis]

Now, that doesn't mean bitcoin still won't go down, though, but this hasn't been tulip mania just yet.

Unless you can buy most things with these coins, they are a bad investment.  Tulip mania.

read: Unless everyone else is already using them, they are a bad investment.

[d'aniel]

Now, that doesn't mean bitcoin still won't go down, though, but this hasn't been tulip mania just yet.

Unless you can buy most things with these coins, they are a bad investment.  Tulip mania.

read: Unless everyone else is already using them, they are a bad investment.

lol good catch

[phelix]

Log chartist reporting.

What's up?  

srsly what's your problem, just thing of it this way: Blow up the chart to 2030 or so and draw a tanh() funtion over it.
It only behaves linearly (or exponential on a linear chart) because we are looking at a small fraction of it.


[...]

You don't need to use a log chart. Simply view the standard price chart

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zvztgSzm1g10zm2g25 > set axis to 6-months

Now, you simply apply a Milton-Keynesian correction transform to the market data, like so:

[...]

+1 to you guys! hilarious pics! zlolz

[netrin]

The log chart tells a story that is completely lost in a linear graph. A jump from .1 to .2 is just as much a surprise as 1 to 2 or 10 to 20. When the DJI gains or loses 100 points it's not news, but if an ounce of silver gained 100 against the dollar it would be in headlines. It's all relative and logarithms capture the relativity. Certainly bitcoin's $32 in June was the peak of a bubble and the log chart shows just how remarkable that was relative to two previous peaks. It explains why the market is in despair right now while reminding the mathematically inclined that the price is well within the historical trend.

[mute20]

The log chart tells a story that is completely lost in a linear graph. A jump from .1 to .2 is just as much a surprise as 1 to 2 or 10 to 20. When the DJI gains or loses 100 points it's not news, but if an ounce of silver gained 100 against the dollar it would be in headlines. It's all relative and logarithms capture the relativity. Certainly bitcoin's $32 in June was the peak of a bubble and the log chart shows just how remarkable that was relative to two previous peaks. It explains why the market is in despair right now while reminding the mathematically inclined that the price is well within the historical trend.

Looks good. Since I am a casual miner and this was a investment just as a upgrade for my last card. I know many think of it in the short term for the most part. Every week we see many calling "doomsday" for bitcoins. I am sure the big investors know better and will just buy up when the price is low.

[Gerken]

I am sure the big investors know better and will just buy up when the price is low.

Sure they will, we won't be the only one left holding the bag.  Right guys?  Guys?