Another BEARS ONLY discussion. When will bitcoin finally drop and how far?

[harlenadler]

pure idiots can't tell they are idiots....

That I will agree on easily, seeing as you try to use coinbase for daytrading. However, you said something about "demand side" earlier, which daytraders don't contribute anything to as they cancel out their contribution. Coinbase buyers, on the other hand, do contribute a lot, and they don't really care whether coins arrive today or a week later, because they are not going to sell for a 80$ "profit".

actually i have a feeling this is not true. coinbase is the easiest way for US people to buy coins -- i am confident that some of them will take these coins and try their hand at trading. that's the first thing i did as a newb. and it seems from trollbox talk that this is to some extent true (people also trade elsewhere and then cash out on coinbase)

[NordicMoose]

I agree, there will probably not be any crash. It will be a slow grind downwards with many bull traps, and dead cat bounces. Kind of what we are seeing. These little rallies will be less profitable as we are seeing and will cause more people to stop participating in them.

When the prices start to get towards the low 700's and maybe breaking into the 600's, we may see a panic sell off.

I think what we are seeing now is the unsustainable price levels. What we probably have are a few wealthy speculators trading back and forth keeping the price higher than normal and also the reason for the recent rally to $1000. But these wealthy speculators will see less and less profits and might even start seeing losses. They may very well be cashing out slowly as they realize the demand is not there for prices higher than $1000.

The market already tried to rally a few times to go past $1000, but failed each time even with the really low volume.

Anyone not cashing out at least half of their bitcoins are taking on extreme risk. Better to cash out now and see where we are headed as the potential for bitcoins to go higher is very doubtful but the risks of it going much lower are very high right now. Simply put, the risk to reward by sitting on bitcoins is not in your favor. This basically means that the price is just too high right now.

I also do not see any major news event coming to save bitcoin. What I think is that the rise of bitcoin to these high price levels is the market pricing in far more growth than bitcoin will see. I don't see any better news coming out than has been out. Just a few days ago I read something on my cell phone about a venture capitalist seeing bitcoin at $100,000 a coin. Actually, every day I see some kind of news about bitcoin from the major media outlets. Even with all this news bitcoin still can't go over $1000.

Wow. Listen, I had the gun in my hand, the suicide note laid out, Britney Spear's latest CD playing full blast in case my nerve faltered at the last second, and I got an unexplained desire to live..... then I saw your post. You mean I'm NOT the only person in the world to actually realise why the market is not going in any direction? You mean there's someone on this forum that has actually figure this out? Wow. Just W-O-W!!!. I expected this forum to be full of angry posts on why bitcoin profiting is now essentially non-existent and how we were all going to find these wealthy SOBs.

Good job Eddie. You saved me from blowing my brains out from frustration.

I expect to see a lot more of these posts. And the location of the pub these wealthy assholes hang out on Fridays. We really need to do something about these SOBs!

(Good job, good job. Wow. Someone actually woke up. Wow. Just wow.)

[bitcoinlitcoinbtcltc]

Bitcoin is going to pop soon!

If Chinese volume (+/- 7 billion) disappears, we will head back towards $80-$150 per bitcoin! SUCH CHEAP!

[indiemax]

Bitcoin is going to pop soon!

If Chinese volume (+/- 7 billion) disappears, we will head back towards $80-$150 per bitcoin! SUCH CHEAP!

No problem,at that price you will be lucky to snap any up ,too many buyers

 the price will rocket straight back up to a reasonable price, best set your orders now if that's your thinking

doom on,doom off ,blink and you'll miss it

[Tzupy]

My guesstimate for the drops that will happen during the next days is a bottom of 500$ - 550$ on Gox and about 100$ lower on Bitstamp, where the ask side looks menacing.
But it will rebound, because this upcoming large drop will only end the first 1 / 3 of wave C, and 2 upward sub-sub-waves will follow. As for the end of wave C, it's too early to tell.

You have been saying this for weeks and for weeks you have been wrong.  What were your calls in September?

Let's see how my prediction of the 17th January turned out:

It took much longer than I expected, mostly because of the low volume.
In the meantime, on Gox those players cashing out via Bitcoins caused the fools' rally of January 25th, and then depressed the price on Bitstamp and BTC-E.
But now my prediction came reasonably close to reality, only Bitstamp looks now more bullish than I expected. But the drop to 102$ on BTC-E was epic!
I am not sure if this is the bottom of the first 1 / 3 of wave C, so I'm not trading, because just one whale dump could overrun my positions badly.

[podyx]

My guesstimate for the drops that will happen during the next days is a bottom of 500$ - 550$ on Gox and about 100$ lower on Bitstamp, where the ask side looks menacing.
But it will rebound, because this upcoming large drop will only end the first 1 / 3 of wave C, and 2 upward sub-sub-waves will follow. As for the end of wave C, it's too early to tell.

You have been saying this for weeks and for weeks you have been wrong.  What were your calls in September?

Let's see how my prediction of the 17th January turned out:

It took much longer than I expected, mostly because of the low volume.
In the meantime, on Gox those players cashing out via Bitcoins caused the fools' rally of January 25th, and then depressed the price on Bitstamp and BTC-E.
But now my prediction came reasonably close to reality, only Bitstamp looks now more bullish than I expected. But the drop to 102$ on BTC-E was epic!
I am not sure if this is the bottom of the first 1 / 3 of wave C, so I'm not trading, because just one whale dump could overrun my positions badly.

u do realize the drop was because fud? meaning that ur TA was pretty much useless and u were only lucky

[Tzupy]

Young padawan, you have much to learn. During wave C the market experiences more bad news than good news, and digests them poorly.
My guesstimate was based on the drop to 455$ in December 2013, adjusted by the amount of new fiat that entered the exchanges.
On Bitstamp, in the meantime, more fiat entered than on Gox, and the extra coins from Gox were absorbed, so it didn't drop as much yet.