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Author Topic: Panic Selling  (Read 4176 times)
Big Time Coin
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September 09, 2011, 02:29:04 PM
 #1

This is panic selling, pure and simple.  Highest volume since June.  Panic is the reason people are selling at these prices in such high numbers.  Keep up the good work in this forum scaring people into thinking bitcoin has no future.  At these prices, we should see a reduction in hashing power.

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coined
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September 09, 2011, 02:32:02 PM
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the real world doesn't take this forum seriously, buy buy buy or sell sell sell on here has never caused anything.
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September 09, 2011, 02:33:29 PM
 #3

i am tired to see it falling.. but there is no much space to fall left... just 4-5 $ down so that everybody is sure it is already at the bottom...  and start a new rally! )

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September 09, 2011, 02:34:27 PM
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It's not "panic" selling at all. People have large amounts of BTC in them and want to get rid of it before the price drops further... That seems pretty rational to me?

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September 09, 2011, 02:34:58 PM
 #5

Today, we'd like to welcome you
to the funeral of wack motherfuckers worldwide
your days are numbered
And everybody wants to be there
but no one wants to stay around
'cause everybody feels defeated

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iprivately
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September 09, 2011, 02:35:07 PM
 #6

panic selling right before the anticipated drop in weekend selling. let the market and its gyrations take its course
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September 09, 2011, 02:52:38 PM
 #7

This is great news for people looking to get into bitcoin.

PGP key id at pgp.mit.edu 0xA68F4B7C

To get help and support for GLBSE please email support@glbse.com
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September 09, 2011, 02:53:40 PM
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Eventually, miners have to decide whether they want to keep the price up or leave. And I would never mind if GPU miners leave in flocks, my mining rig is there and ready.

https://tlsnotary.org/ Fraud proofing decentralized fiat-Bitcoin trading.
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September 09, 2011, 02:58:07 PM
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For the past few months bitcoin has only moved up on low volume, and has moved down sharply on high volume. Bubble deflation, that's all. The price was far far beyond what could fundamentally be supported in terms of the state of the available clients, the current acceptance/usefulness of bitcoins, and the extremely high inflationary period we are in right now

$5.50ish is the bottom I called a few months ago, and I still think it is likely we will settle at $4-$6 for awhile, but we may see some drops back into the $2s and $3s at some point
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September 09, 2011, 03:02:26 PM
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For the past few months bitcoin has only moved up on low volume, and has moved down sharply on high volume. Bubble deflation, that's all. The price was far far beyond what could fundamentally be supported in terms of the state of the available clients, the current acceptance/usefulness of bitcoins, and the extremely high inflationary period we are in right now

$5.50ish is the bottom I called a few months ago, and I still think it is likely we will settle at $4-$6 for awhile, but we may see some drops back into the $2s and $3s at some point
This is a good analysis. But I do think the bubble will have deflated after this latest crash, we're pretty much at or near the numbers the Bitcoin economy can fundamentally sustain.

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September 09, 2011, 03:05:39 PM
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I think that's true, I don't see it hanging around in the $2-$3 range for very long.
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September 09, 2011, 03:06:42 PM
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A lot of people tend to believe miners need about $5-5.50 to make it worth their time, but i feel that KWH leechers or FPGA users will bring the price under that $5-5.50 equilibrium.

just my 2 cents.  sure glad i sold at $11 :-)
johnj
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September 09, 2011, 03:11:22 PM
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It was mentioned somewhere else that this could be "professional" investors just flushing out the boom-of-miners of their coins.  I'm inclined to believe this because 1) I only started ~20 days ago, 2) I was thinking the same thing.  Granted that's an optimistic scenario.

On the other hand, the price is trying to get itself back on track after the bubble. I doubt the (4?) upcoming Bitcoin Conferences are going to be cancelled.  They'll be investing in the system, not the dollar amount its currently tied too. IMO, everyone worth their weight who has sold the last few days are -still- watching the market.  That money isn't just *poof* gone forever.

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lemonginger
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September 09, 2011, 03:14:36 PM
 #14

A lot of people tend to believe miners need about $5-5.50 to make it worth their time, but i feel that KWH leechers or FPGA users will bring the price under that $5-5.50 equilibrium.

just my 2 cents.  sure glad i sold at $11 :-)

No. The difficulty adjustment will ensure that some miners can make a profit at nearly any price. Lower prices drive miners out, difficulty ramps down, mining becomes profitable for miners remaining, more miners jump in, difficulty rises, mining becomes unprofitable, miners leave. It's a balancing feedback loop that is always in play, it makes no difference what the price is. I have no frigging clue why after a year of this we still have people insisting that the "cost of mining" somehow affects the price of bitcoins.
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September 09, 2011, 03:20:36 PM
 #15

A lot of people tend to believe miners need about $5-5.50 to make it worth their time, but i feel that KWH leechers or FPGA users will bring the price under that $5-5.50 equilibrium.

just my 2 cents.  sure glad i sold at $11 :-)

No. The difficulty adjustment will ensure that some miners can make a profit at nearly any price. Lower prices drive miners out, difficulty ramps down, mining becomes profitable for miners remaining, more miners jump in, difficulty rises, mining becomes unprofitable, miners leave. It's a balancing feedback loop that is always in play, it makes no difference what the price is. I have no frigging clue why after a year of this we still have people insisting that the "cost of mining" somehow affects the price of bitcoins.

There is a minimum cost of running a mining rig which doesn't linearly scale with the difficulty factor.

https://tlsnotary.org/ Fraud proofing decentralized fiat-Bitcoin trading.
lemonginger
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September 09, 2011, 03:26:52 PM
 #16

that makes no difference. when it isn't profitable, people leave, difficulty adjusts. when it is profitable, people join, difficulty adjusts. sunk costs, changes in price of electricity, CPU vs GPU vs ASIC vs botnet, etc etc etc all may effect which miners are mining, but difficulty is simply an indicator of price+technology, it does not drive price.
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September 09, 2011, 03:32:08 PM
 #17

the real world doesn't take this forum seriously, buy buy buy or sell sell sell on here has never caused anything.
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September 09, 2011, 03:49:49 PM
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Quote from: lemonginger
No. The difficulty adjustment will ensure that some miners can make a profit at nearly any price. Lower prices drive miners out, difficulty ramps down, mining becomes profitable for miners remaining, more miners jump in, difficulty rises, mining becomes unprofitable, miners leave. It's a balancing feedback loop that is always in play, it makes no difference what the price is. I have no frigging clue why after a year of this we still have people insisting that the "cost of mining" somehow affects the price of bitcoins.

Yeah it may not be profitable at the moment, but assuming the price rebounds I will have mined during these "off-periods" and will end up with more BTC in my wallet when their value goes back up. "Fair-weather" miners will shut down their systems because BTC is not profitable RIGHT NOW and will have less BTC to show for it.
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September 09, 2011, 04:05:43 PM
 #19

Actually, if miners instead take the same amount of $ that they would spend on electricity and buy bitcoins, they come out ahead of where they were if they had kept mining (once price falls below their cost level).

Real world example: I make about 3 btc per day at current difficulty. It costs me ~$18/day to run my miners. It is cheaper for me to purchase 4 bitcoins at $4.25 each than it is to pay $18 in electricity and get 3 bitcoins. It would take a significant number of miners to drop off the network before any substantial gains are made in the quantity of bitcoins being mined. Of course that carries its own problems if that happens (see: namecoin)
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September 09, 2011, 04:10:24 PM
 #20

Actually, if miners instead take the same amount of $ that they would spend on electricity and buy bitcoins, they come out ahead of where they were if they had kept mining (once price falls below their cost level).

Real world example: I make about 3 btc per day at current difficulty. It costs me ~$18/day to run my miners. It is cheaper for me to purchase 4 bitcoins at $4.25 each than it is to pay $18 in electricity and get 3 bitcoins. It would take a significant number of miners to drop off the network before any substantial gains are made in the quantity of bitcoins being mined. Of course that carries its own problems if that happens (see: namecoin)

^This.   not to mention buying ATI cards.

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