Crash to $2 imminent. Willing to bet.

[worldinacoin]

It is more than $6.70 before dropping to a value above $6, still 3x the expected $2.

[ElectricMucus]

It is not within the expected range... Today.

Can you elaborate on that?

Hitting $2 today would be an unlikely event. I would currently place the end of the low-side tail at about $4.20

That were OPs expectations, not mine. I personally think 4.20 to be unlikely. I would place the low end at 4.4 if it even comes to that.

[ElectricMucus]

It is not within the expected range... Today.

Can you elaborate on that?

Hitting $2 today would be an unlikely event. I would currently place the end of the low-side tail at about $4.20

That were OPs expectations, not mine. I personally think 4.20 to be unlikely. I would place the low end at 4.4 if it even comes to that.

Of course, I am referring to the OP. But actually, I misspoke. I would currently place the end of the low tail near $4.74... So $2 is an even more remote possibility.

apparently we using both fractional exponents of the golden ratio

[mobodick]

As for the crash to $2, as I've said before, we're in a long, slow slide. If you look at a 30 day moving average, the trend is clear - the price declines steadily about $4 per month, and all the "rallies" and "crashes" are just short term noise.  Since we're currently around $5, that can't go on much longer. The endgame will be during the holiday season.

How can you make a 30 days av move chart with bitcoin?!

Like this. Straight downhill since the bubble popped in early June.

The brown line is a trailing moving average of the last 30 days. (Because it's a trailing moving average, it lags the actual data by 15 days.) Notice how all the "crashes" and "rallies" disappear and the steady downward trend becomes clear.

Just arbirtary blahblah.
Why would your abstraction be more valid than any other arbitrary abstraction of the charts?
Noise is only noise if you can't understand the details.

[2112]

Riddle me this Batman.

If Bitcoin is supposed to be like a pink sheet, why isn't it even acting like a stock? Hmm...

Not enough finance professional involvement yet. Various Bitcoin-related business entities are only just getting formed. Its not yet ripe for the real interest.

[2112]

So then, you are saying that, to a degree, Bitcoin is insulated from the turmoil that is hitting the larger markets.

Yeah, the bitcoin economy is still in the testnet phase. If I may borrow a Linux phrase from Steve Balmer, "Bitcoin, in a way, launched bankrupt." So you just can't apply your usual metric. It will get ripe when the first audited financial reports come out of the Bitcoin economy.

[speeder]

So then, you are saying that, to a degree, Bitcoin is insulated from the turmoil that is hitting the larger markets.

Yeah, the bitcoin economy is still in the testnet phase. If I may borrow a Linux phrase from Steve Balmer, "Bitcoin, in a way, launched bankrupt." So you just can't apply your usual metric. It will get ripe when the first audited financial reports come out of the Bitcoin economy.

You mean 'bankrupt' like Red Hat?

I think he means Canonical

[2112]

You mean 'bankrupt' like Red Hat?

No, bankrupt like Linus Torvalds in his dorm room. If you have an access to the typical news retrieval service search for that quote from Balmer about Linux. He said that on a conference call with investment managers and had a very nice explanation followed by a nice discussion. It really explains how open-source positioning changes the financial performance of securities.

[Minsc]

I hear Linus is doing pretty good these days...

He's got fame.  So he can just churn out books and get publishers to pay him for them.

[NeonLicht]

I bet on $100 that bitcoin will crash to $2.

By when do you think?

[maxll]

Crash to $2-3-4 is a myth.    

[worldinacoin]

One can never know, but unlikely to crash to such levels.

[NeonLicht]

Who knows.  Everything is possible.

[caston]

There's a lot of resistance at $5 but the trend does appear to be heading towards parity.

[NeonLicht]

There's a lot of resistance at $5 but the trend does appear to be heading towards parity.

1:1?

[caston]

There's a lot of resistance at $5 but the trend does appear to be heading towards parity.

1:1?

Yes that's right 1 USD.

[fivebells]

As far as I can tell, there is no fundamental economic basis for the
current exchange rate.  There would need to be a compelling "medium of
exchange" usecase for bitcoin increasing widespread demand for it.
Absent such a usecase, I would expect the price drop to continue over
the medium term.

This is just speculation, but it seems like "medium of exchange for
illegal economic activity" was a compelling usecase, particularly since
if you mine bitcoins through tor, they presumably start life completely
anonymously.  But if this were the primary economic use for bitcoins at
the moment, it would have an unstoppable inflationary effect on bitcoins
relative to conventional currency, because most of the participants
would want to change their bitcoins out for conventional money as soon
as the exchange had been effected.  It would even be likely to drive the
exchange-rate/mining-difficulty ratio to completely unprofitable levels
for legitimate miners, because if your goal is simply a anonymous medium
of exchange, the electricity cost of producing bitcoins would simply be
a way of laundering money through the power company.  At any rate, this
usecase doesn't seem to have led to sufficiently wide adoption to
increase demand for bitcoins.

[payb.tc]

if your goal is simply a anonymous medium of exchange, the electricity cost of producing bitcoins would simply be a way of laundering money through the power company.

is that like, reverse laundering?

i thought the point of laundering was to get money out of the black market, not into it.

what you describe sounds like a way for the power company to launder dirty money.

must be time for me to pull out the 'office space' dvd.

[fivebells]

It's a way of effecting an economic transaction while leaving no trace of a financial connection between the participants.  Whether you want to call that laundering or not is beside the point.

[kjlimo]

if your goal is simply a anonymous medium of exchange, the electricity cost of producing bitcoins would simply be a way of laundering money through the power company.

is that like, reverse laundering?

i thought the point of laundering was to get money out of the black market, not into it.

what you describe sounds like a way for the power company to launder dirty money.

must be time for me to pull out the 'office space' dvd.

"To conceal the source through and intermediary"  Oh God we're screwed...