2014 Record breaking 30 minute volume to drive Bitcoin from $820 to just $836

[MatTheCat]

You have to be ready for both sides of the market, and not exclude any of it. But on the end, after all that Bitcoin has done, being bull is always a better option and one should never go to be so much bear to sell all of his coins.

I am not butthurt. I have broken even overall after my little foray into Shorting on Bitfinex....but that is a whole lot of sweat and one sleepless night babysitting my one big successful short on the night of the Huobi plunge......for practically fuck all!

All I am trying to do is align myself with the right side of the trade. That is easy when the dice is loaded in Bitcoins favour. Not so easy right now when there are such market battles going on. One of my big mistakes is getting emotionally involved in bitch fights with posters on this forum. When I am hoping that Bitcoin goes a certain way to get one over some username on this forum, I know that my judgement is going to be clouded, but I persevere and make trades all the same. I first found myself coming into direct conflict with the mainstream of opinion on here when I stated that I was selling $1100 bitcoins in the $1000 range to cut my losses. I was pilloried all over the place but had I 'held', where would I be now? Seriously under fkn water is where.

It really pisses me off that there guys who picked up hundreds or thousands of Bitcoins in sub $10 days, who attack and ridicule any newcomer who is a bit concerned that their investment may be liable for taking a tanking.


P.S. I used to be ideological about Bitcoin, but that is no longer possible because I can't allow myself to be that naive.

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[seleme]

You're not newcomer, you had your 10$ coins, that's still 1400% cheaper than first coins I ever bought. The only difference is that I haven't cashed out mine but traded them to many more and trade them all the time with only one thing on my mind - to make more coins, that will cover any eventual price drop so I couldn't care less about price unlessit goes to 100$ or your old 10s and that most probably won't ever happen.

And yeah, of course you are butthurt, I can remember times when I was exactly like that, when I got pissed up being bear when old guys were laughing at us. Smoothie was first member here I ignored as he was laughing at people harder than anyone else.

Yes, old guys can be bastards sometimes but after 10 months of this game I can see why.. there are lot of noobs who came here week, two or three ago that think they are suited to teach lessons people who are here for years, and who are way, way, way more experienced and have way, way, way more knowledge about anything Bitcoin. These noobs go on my nerves too, not for being in position where they want to buy cheap coins and enter the game, I perfectly understand and respect that, they go on my nerves because they know fuck all about Bitcoin, have zero experience with it's price movements, it's rise, and all that would again be perfectly understandable if they're not acting as smartarses trying to teach me and other lessons here. Me who almost forgot on my crypto net value after Worldcoins I bought for my whole btc worth of 34 BTC in July went to be worth 6 BTC in September, or others who were here when BTC was worth pennies and lived and survived through 100s of rises and falls.

Look at that bitcoinlitcoinbtcltc guy who just opened a thread about Bitcoin downfall, it is extremely tempting to not make him acknowledge he is idiot.

You're not a noob but you often act like that, going out talking talking about price movements with such certainty like you came from the future this morning. That sounds stupid, makes you to look like twat and brings aggressive response too, it's normal.

There's no certainty in crypto world. Except that it will make me millionaire in this year, of course

[MatTheCat]

You're not newcomer, you had your 10$ coins, that's still 1400% cheaper than first coins I ever bought. The only difference is that I haven't cashed out mine but traded them to many more and trade them all the time with only one thing on my mind - to make more coins, that will cover any eventual price drop so I couldn't care less about price unlessit goes to 100$ or your old 10s and that most probably won't ever happen.

I am a newcomer.

I primarily got into Bitcoins and used them for their intended purpose (making payments for real goods) as opposed to hoarding them and waiting on others to pile into the pyramid and push me up it.

I only started to speculate in Bitcoin from November onwards, after having stomached enough of watching something which I have bought and spent hundreds off, rise, rise, and then rise a magniude of order more. As for my predictions of price direction, I am not always right, but I have been more right than I have been wrong. Even my go long at $790, cash out at $815 and then short Bitcoin could have been a nice little earner if I hadn't got too addicted to my bearish stance. Arguing with tossers on this forum (who had I listened to in the past, would see me seriously underwater on Bitcoin until this very day), has this stance addiction effect on me and I need to cut it out. I now appreciate that there are massive movers in the Bitcoin pond that can send the price crashing down or surging up regardless of how the market looks on paper, making any kind of TA or volume or chart analysis completely futile, but hey, it's a learning process.

Long term, with all the seedlings of retail adoption and such, Bitcoin has to have a bright future on front of it. But how does that translate into price in the near term when we have this looming China exit to deal with, and massive rise in Bitcoin price based largely on the restriction of Bitcoin supply in the face of a China bitcoin boom. I dont want to own $800 dollar Bitcoins if I so much as ever glimpse a $400 price tag on Bitstamp. Most people would tell me that this was not possible but I can remember all the 'Bitcoin will never go below $1000 again' bullshit from little over 1 month ago.

With Bitcoin, anything is possible. Anything.

[aminorex]

AAARRRGGGHHH "looming china exit" again.  WTF does that MEAN?

[ampere9765]

hmm, well, if people were not under the impression that even direct bank transfer was being cut off (if that is truly the case -- still does not seem confirmed, but those tweets from the conference were unnerving), that changes the picture.

[MatTheCat]

AAARRRGGGHHH "looming china exit" again.  WTF does that MEAN?

A big pile of coins in Chinese hands suddenly becoming like monopoly money going to any trader who can get them a scrap of value for them?

I don't know why the Chinese are still trading them up and down or why Huobi still accounts for 70% of daily Bitcoin trading (yeah, I know there are 0% trading fees but this is still ridiculous), but look what happened when Huobi started to sell off at the weekend. For the first 60 minutes, nothing happened on Bitstamp. Shows how well the price moulding bots can do their job, but eventually, price on Bitstamp started to slip. If China's exit is irrelevant to USD Bitcoin, why did all the USD exchanges start to crash? Perhaps the Joe Bloggs traders were all looking nervously across thinking "this is it, here comes the big one, RUNNNNNNAWAY!"?

You do realise that one day very soon, Huobi is going to trade down to 0 don't you, and then it isn't going to exist. Bullish or bearish?

[proudhon]

AAARRRGGGHHH "looming china exit" again.  WTF does that MEAN?

A big pile of coins in Chinese hands suddenly becoming like monopoly money going to any trader who can get them a scrap of value for them?

I don't know why the Chinese are still trading them up and down or why Huobi still accounts for 70% of daily Bitcoin trading (yeah, I know there are 0% trading fees but this is still ridiculous), but look what happened when Huobi started to sell off at the weekend. For the first 60 minutes, nothing happened on Bitstamp. Shows how well the price upholding bots can do their job, but eventually, price on Bitstamp started to slip. If China's exit is irrelevant to USD Bitcoin, why did all the USD exchanges start to crash? Perhaps the Joe Bloggs traders were all looking nervously across thinking "this is it, here comes the big one, RUNNNNNNAWAY!"?

You do realise that one day very soon, Huobi is going to trade down to 0 don't you, and then it isn't going to exist. Bullish or bearish

Confirmed

[ampere9765]

what % of coins trading on Huobi would actually make be dumped on the market or routed to Western exchanges? but really, even with a good estimate on that (maybe based on the first China bad news drop in December), no idea how many coins are really on these exchanges at this point (like Huobi, Okcoin). could be much less than volume signifies b/c of 0% trade fees and manipulated reported volume (a la Okcoin).

[aminorex]

AAARRRGGGHHH "looming china exit" again.  WTF does that MEAN?

A big pile of coins in Chinese hands suddenly becoming like monopoly money going to any trader who can get them a scrap of value for them?
...
You do realise that one day very soon, Huobi is going to trade down to 0 don't you, and then it isn't going to exist. Bullish or bearish?

It will not trade to zero.  That's silly.  It may cease to exist, which would be very bullish.

You make at least two major assumptions which I think are misleading you.

Firstly, that there is a big pile of coins on the Chinese exchanges.  How many coins do you think there are?
Surely if you believe there is a big pile of coins there, you must be able to estimate how big.  Where is this data coming from?

Secondly, that the mean bitcoin trader will attempt to exit into RMB.  If you knew that you would never be able to buy another bitcoin again on an exchange, what would you do with all of the fiat on the exchange, before the cut off?   I know what I would do:  I would get all the bitcoin that I could, and move it to a cold wallet.  I don't think either of us have enough information on the btc demographics to come to a strong conclusion about which side will predominate in an exchange closure, but I suspect that the largest number of coins are being bought in order to evade capital controls, and that means the fiat goes into coin, which is portable, unlike RMB.

[MatTheCat]

what % of coins trading on Huobi would actually make be dumped on the market or routed to Western exchanges? but really, even with a good estimate on that (maybe based on the first China bad news drop in December), no idea how many coins are really on these exchanges at this point (like Huobi, Okcoin). could be much less than volume signifies b/c of 0% trade fees and manipulated reported volume (a la Okcoin).

Far far less than the volume indicates but still a very significant amount. It is rational to think that many of these Bitcoins won't be traded at all, but simply held by Chinese holding out for a longer term opportunity to put them to use. On the otherhand, it would be idiotic to think that a certain amount of them won't end up hitting the markets via Chinese black market traders with links to Western currency markets who can deliver the isolated Chinese Bitcoin holders some yuan for their 'defunct' coins. Indeed, I have noticed Chinese Yuan connected traders appear on UK localbitcoins offering very competitive rates. This is eye-brow raising, because the CNY is a notorioulsy ring-fenced currency so this is not the same as trader dealing in Euro and GBP or the Rupee and GBP.

If Huobi/China was irrelevant to USD Bitcoin valuation, then the USD exchanges wouldn't have budged an inch as Huobi plunged, but the panic overwhelmed the price moulding trading algorithms on the exchanges, and plunge we did.

[aminorex]

If Huobi/China was irrelevant to USD Bitcoin valuation, then the USD exchanges wouldn't have budged an inch as Huobi plunged, but the panic overwhelmed the price moulding trading algorithms on the exchanges, and plunge we did.

Huobi is considerably more relevant than is Mt.Gox.  At least Huobi can be arb'ed to the real exchanges.  But that arb is like a very thin rubber band.  If it is stretched too far, it will snap, and the price of Huobi will decorrelate to the real exchanges, just like Mt. Gox.

[mgburks77]

...unfortunately for me I never held onto any of the hundreds of sub $10 Bitcoins that I have bought in the past...

...I now view Bitcoin as a nasty pernicious vapour asset...

Correlation?

On the contrary.

Back then, I viewed Bitcoin with much ideological 'fight the banksters' esteem and I always intended to hold onto a pile of Bitcoins just to 'support' the cause. But the problem was that me n my mates are Silk Road regulars. And for that we needed to spend Bitcoins.....and then Intersango got effectively closed down leaving no easy way (that we knew about) to get hold of coins for the Road....so the stash got depleted. I don't delude myself for a minute though that I might otherwise have been a Bitcoin millionaire as I know very well that as soon as I seen that I had multiplied my money by three or four times, I would have creamed my pants and cashed out.

The only way I could be a Bitcoin millionaire today, would be if I fell into a coma sometime in 2012, and came out of it in late November 2013.

say no to drugs kids, or this will be you

lol

[aminorex]

say no to drugs kids, or this will be you

On the other hand, in the 8 years since I started taking amphetamines, my salary has increased by a factor of 4. Each individual has unique talents and unique needs.

[pungopete468]

say no to drugs kids, or this will be you

On the other hand, in the 8 years since I started taking amphetamines, my salary has increased by a factor of 4. Each individual has unique talents and unique needs.

Adderall makes you feel like the main character in Limitless.

[MatTheCat]

That was a record breaking volume required to devour a massive Ask wall that had accumulated at the $820 range.

I doubt for a second that this surge in volume, 900 BTC worth of it occurring in one fell strike, the majority of the rest of it hitting within two seperate 1 minute candles, was the result of irrepressible mass public appetite for $820 Bitcoin.

I will concede that I don't know what the fuck is happening here but it reeks of fish.

Here is what the fuck was happening:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=400235.msg4778423#msg4778423