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Author Topic: Why I went all in  (Read 2426 times)
Elwar
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September 14, 2011, 08:01:05 PM
 #1

I was able to get a sneak preview of this last week.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=44076.0

I went all in at that point.

Bitcoin now has point of sale capability that is easy. Plus, no more carrying around your credit card. Everyone carries their cell phone these days.

http://www.bitpools.com
Pool your bitcoins with others. Vote on solutions using the Bitcoin blockchain. Keep your bitcoins in your cold storage until you find a solution you like.
Links and Reviews of useful every day places to spend bitcoins: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=943143.0
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Otoh
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September 14, 2011, 08:23:48 PM
 #2

I was able to get a sneak preview of this last week.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=44076.0

I went all in at that point.

Bitcoin now has point of sale capability that is easy. Plus, no more carrying around your credit card. Everyone carries their cell phone these days.

so atm how much are you down from last week in $ terms or just as a % if you like, both would be most informative if you'd care to share - down the road we can then all watch your roller coaster ride to riches

so how big are (were) you & what was your point of entry (to put it crudely) Wink

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September 14, 2011, 08:56:35 PM
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I was able to get a sneak preview of this last week.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=44076.0

I went all in at that point.

Bitcoin now has point of sale capability that is easy. Plus, no more carrying around your credit card. Everyone carries their cell phone these days.

I was seriously thinking about getting back in at 4's after it held the second time, but I went to bed, woke up and the rally to 7 had happened, the buyers at 4 are in the better position, since they can just sell if the price starts going down to that level again.
Elwar
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September 15, 2011, 12:02:03 AM
 #4

I was able to get a sneak preview of this last week.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=44076.0

I went all in at that point.

Bitcoin now has point of sale capability that is easy. Plus, no more carrying around your credit card. Everyone carries their cell phone these days.

so atm how much are you down from last week in $ terms or just as a % if you like, both would be most informative if you'd care to share - down the road we can then all watch your roller coaster ride to riches

so how big are (were) you & what was your point of entry (to put it crudely) Wink

I am at 866 BTC right now.

That is my initial investment, but at this point I will be setting up my wife's shop to accept Bitcoin and have the convenience store next door start accepting Bitcoin which I will probably spend buying Cuban sandwiches from him.

I will start transferring spending money to BTC as I talk to more places locally and they start accepting BTC.

http://www.bitpools.com
Pool your bitcoins with others. Vote on solutions using the Bitcoin blockchain. Keep your bitcoins in your cold storage until you find a solution you like.
Links and Reviews of useful every day places to spend bitcoins: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=943143.0
Cluster2k
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September 15, 2011, 12:08:59 AM
 #5

I was seriously thinking about getting back in at 4's after it held the second time, but I went to bed, woke up and the rally to 7 had happened, the buyers at 4 are in the better position, since they can just sell if the price starts going down to that level again.

The $7 price spike was caused (again) by hacked accounts being emptied.  If you missed the opportunity to buy bitcoins in the $4 range then sit tight: you'll get your chance in the next few days.

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September 15, 2011, 12:20:24 AM
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I was seriously thinking about getting back in at 4's after it held the second time, but I went to bed, woke up and the rally to 7 had happened, the buyers at 4 are in the better position, since they can just sell if the price starts going down to that level again.

The $7 price spike was caused (again) by hacked accounts being emptied.  If you missed the opportunity to buy bitcoins in the $4 range then sit tight: you'll get your chance in the next few days.

I haven't seen info about hacked accounts causing the buy to 7 confirmed anywhere, and I looked, do you have a link?

I wasn't thinking about buying at 4 for the sake of it, it's long term support, and the chance to fall into 2-3 was there, and it didn't happen, then when it dropped a second time to 4, it held again, it was then as it started to move up again I considered buying back, only I think a big player thought the same thing.
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September 15, 2011, 12:32:34 AM
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also, I'm sure mtgox would have contacted the guy that bought the btc driving it to 7, to confirm it was real, an account as giant as that getting hacked and used to buy coins would have been news on its own, after going to the trouble of correcting the small trades he wouldn't let that giant one slide if it was hacked.
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September 15, 2011, 01:40:08 AM
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I was seriously thinking about getting back in at 4's after it held the second time, but I went to bed, woke up and the rally to 7 had happened, the buyers at 4 are in the better position, since they can just sell if the price starts going down to that level again.

The $7 price spike was caused (again) by hacked accounts being emptied.  If you missed the opportunity to buy bitcoins in the $4 range then sit tight: you'll get your chance in the next few days.

I haven't seen info about hacked accounts causing the buy to 7 confirmed anywhere, and I looked, do you have a link?

It's on MtGox's Support page:

https://support.mtgox.com/home
*Resolved* [OUTAGE-11804] Unexecuted Trades

Now one could argue that only the subsequently canceled trades to $15.94 and $12.50 were due to compromised accounts, but I think the evidence is clear than the entire spike to $7 was caused by unauthorised trades.  Thinking about it logically, the price of bitcoins is stagnating at $4.80 for quite a while, then suddenly people decide bitcoins are a screaming buy and decide to trade them up instantly by 40%?  No one would believe that.  The much more plausible explanation is that the sudden unauthorised buying activity caused other traders and bots to trade into the artificial rally.  Some extreme trades were canceled by MtGox but really MtGox should have wound them all back.  $4.80 to $7, then $5.50 and back above $7 again was clearly caused by unauthorised trades.

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nmat
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September 15, 2011, 01:44:15 AM
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I am at 866 BTC right now.

That is my initial investment, but at this point I will be setting up my wife's shop to accept Bitcoin and have the convenience store next door start accepting Bitcoin which I will probably spend buying Cuban sandwiches from him.

I will start transferring spending money to BTC as I talk to more places locally and they start accepting BTC.

Local stores accepting bitcoins are great news. Smiley As for going all-in... That's another story.
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September 15, 2011, 01:47:26 AM
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also, I'm sure mtgox would have contacted the guy that bought the btc driving it to 7, to confirm it was real, an account as giant as that getting hacked and used to buy coins would have been news on its own, after going to the trouble of correcting the small trades he wouldn't let that giant one slide if it was hacked.

One guy?  What if it was a dozen bots trading into the artificial rally caused by the compromised account(s)?   Did MtGox contact all traders involved in the sudden spike from $4.80 to $7 to confirm they really wanted to trade?  I'm still waiting for my email from MtGox.  Looking at the current price ($5.55, and falling) I'd say those traders following the buying spike to $7 would be quite happy to have those trades wound back.  

We know there were compromised accounts (MtGox confirmed it on their support page).  We know the buying and selling activity appears to be completely irrational.  MtGox canceled the most extreme trades but they know they can't cancel thousands of subsequent trades that took their price cues from the compromised accounts.

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grod
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September 15, 2011, 02:00:30 AM
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I can't wait till bincoinica causes margin calls as a result of bogus mtgox trades or data.  You know it's just a matter of time.  They dodged the bullet this time, but next time margin traders may not be so lucky.
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September 15, 2011, 02:12:34 AM
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Everything you posted there is just your own speculation about the possible cause of the buying to 7, there is nothing wrong with speculation, but don't present it as fact. it may well have just been normal trading driving to 7, you should expect the largest orders appearing when people try to predict a top or bottom. and that those larger than normal orders will rattle the market.

I already read that mtgox support stuff, he did not say the main buying to 7 was due to compromised accounts, and I never thought it was. It looked like 4's could be a bottom at that time. my tiny buy wouldn't have moved it beyond 4's so I wouldn't be as exposed as the big players who bumped it to 7 as I could just change my mind if it came back down  Grin




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September 15, 2011, 03:36:03 AM
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Everything you posted there is just your own speculation about the possible cause of the buying to 7, there is nothing wrong with speculation, but don't present it as fact. it may well have just been normal trading driving to 7, you should expect the largest orders appearing when people try to predict a top or bottom. and that those larger than normal orders will rattle the market.

That's why I laced my post with words like "appears" and "think".  Nothing was stated as fact  Wink

In all we have Bitcointalk compromised and a plea from the admins for people to change their passwords.  Soon afterwards there are massive price movements on MtGox without any positive news to explain the sudden 50% price rise and unprecedented pricing activity that followed.  MtGox cancels some trades and posts an official message about compromised bitcointalk accounts and for people to be careful with their passwords.  Many people use the same passwords across many sites.

Now, one could put all the above together and decide someone just decided to go on a bitcoin buying binge because they really wanted to own a lot of bitcoins very quickly.  I pull out a rather different conclusion.

I already read that mtgox support stuff, he did not say the main buying to 7 was due to compromised accounts, and I never thought it was. It looked like 4's could be a bottom at that time. my tiny buy wouldn't have moved it beyond 4's so I wouldn't be as exposed as the big players who bumped it to 7 as I could just change my mind if it came back down  Grin

MtGox never literally said "compromised accounts caused the buying binge to $7", but the available evidence points in that direction.  Is it conclusive?  No.  But it's the most plausible explanation.

From MtGox:

"Subsequently, some of the information have been used to conduct unauthorized orders, resulting in unusually high trade activities."

MtGox did cancel some $7 range trades but they know they can't cancel all the subsequent trades generated due to the price movements.  Once people saw the irrational trading activity on MtGox (hey, instant 50% price rise!) they piled in and sold bitcoins into the rally.  The compromised accounts did not have unlimited bitcoins or funds for the hackers to play with.  The rally petered out and now we're stuggling to maintain $5.40.  Bitcoin will retreat to $5 soon enough.

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September 15, 2011, 03:44:11 AM
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nothing stated as fact?...   ---> "The $7 price spike was caused (again) by hacked accounts being emptied"


also there doesn't need to be good news to cause that buying, speculators will likely have been watching bitcoin for a while now as it declines, looking for the right time to get in, that buying to 7 made perfect sense as a legitimate buy from the perspective of somebody thinking they saw the bottom.

we'll stop hijacking your thread now Elwar  Kiss
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September 15, 2011, 05:20:35 AM
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Good that someone is stopping this falldown.
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September 15, 2011, 05:45:52 AM
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nothing stated as fact?...   ---> "The $7 price spike was caused (again) by hacked accounts being emptied"

Yeah, you caught me out there  Cheesy

also there doesn't need to be good news to cause that buying, speculators will likely have been watching bitcoin for a while now as it declines, looking for the right time to get in, that buying to 7 made perfect sense as a legitimate buy from the perspective of somebody thinking they saw the bottom.

We just saw a dip to $5.06.  Not far from the $4.85 or so before the price jumped to over $7 in an instant.  I've placed asks all the way up to $9, just in case someone decides they'd love to own a few thousand bitcoins in a real hurry  Wink

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September 15, 2011, 10:52:11 AM
 #17

There is a simple reason why the price can currently percentage wise jump so large amounts. That is the fact that in dollar-amounts there's not that much there when we're at single digits. A single big buyer can make a difference with a buy of $100k or more.

This new Bit-Pay mobile thing is very promising, but I don't really need this to make me a bull. I see promising stuff every week. But this is a good addition. I already thought I was "all-in" but decided to buy more because relative to long term expectations the price is very good right now. Glad I saw the dead cat bounce though, I'm still waiting to buy and hopefully I'll spot the right time to do it.

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September 15, 2011, 11:09:57 AM
 #18

Took a second look at the Bit-Pay mobile payment system and I correct myself, this is not just one of those promising projects I see every week, this is on another level. This could be a game-changer as far as getting merchants to accept coins and getting customers to use them.

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September 15, 2011, 12:38:04 PM
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Took a second look at the Bit-Pay mobile payment system and I correct myself, this is not just one of those promising projects I see every week, this is on another level. This could be a game-changer as far as getting merchants to accept coins and getting customers to use them.

It is. I have seen the video and just set up my merchant app and it could not be easier.

My wife who runs the shop usually opts to use the calculator instead of messing with the cash register because it is too complicated for her will have an easy time with this.

Just pull up the app, punch in the ticket number and price and she is all set. It shows a QR code that the customer can scan and they just scan and pay.

Very easy.

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September 15, 2011, 02:40:08 PM
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Quote
I was able to get a sneak preview of this last week.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=44076.0

I went all in at that point.

Bitcoin now has point of sale capability that is easy. Plus, no more carrying around your credit card. Everyone carries their cell phone these days.

I totally agree this is one of the hottest developments to hit bitcoin as it overcomes all the "ease of use issues" that both vendors and customers have been facing.

So I'm buying as well Grin

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