Nordfx broker: news, weekly Analytics

[Stan NordFX]

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for November 04 – 08, 2019

 
First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. What was expected did happen: on Wednesday, October 30, the US Federal Reserve lowered the interest rate on the dollar from 2.0% to 1.75%. Naturally, the US currency began to fall, the pair went up, but the movement was quite moderate: the market has long been ready for this decision of the Federal Reserve. As a result, the pair hardly reached the level of 1.1175, returning to the medium-term support/resistance line, which began last March.
The key data on the US economy, which was released on Friday 01 November, didn't help the dollar a lot either. The number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector (NFP) in October was more than predicted (128K vs. 89K), but significantly less than the September value of 180K. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector ISM was also less than expected (48.3 instead of 48.9). As a result, the bears' attempt to push the pair down ended in a fiasco, and after reaching the level of 1.127, it turned around, went back up and ended the week at 1.1165;

- GBP/USD. It was decided to add a few more episodes to the protracted series called Brexit. Britain never came out of the EU. The main character of the series, Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who promised to "die in the ditch" if Brexit does not take place on October 31, changed his mind to die. The EU has granted the UK another extension, and now the country is heading for early parliamentary elections on December 12.
The next episode of the series will be devoted to the adoption by Parliament of amendments to the law on elections. And depending on which way the ship of British lawmaking heads, it depends on whether Prime Minister Johnson can stay at the helm.
The Brexit postponed once again and the weakening of the dollar allowed the pound to strengthen its positions somewhat, by the middle of Thursday, October 31, the GBP/USD pair rose by 150 points, then moved into a horizontal movement in the 1.2925-1.2975 corridor and finished at 1.2937;     

- USD/JPY. As we predicted, the Bank of Japan left the interest rate unchanged at -0.1%. The growth of the yen last week was due to three main factors: the reduction of the US Federal Reserve interest rate, another slip in the preparation of the US-China trade agreement and, it is possible, the associated strong growth of long-term US Treasury bonds. According to Bloomberg, the Chinese side may not want to conclude any serious trade deals with the "unreliable President Trump." Trump, for his part, is unlikely to want to aggravate relations with China, so as not to damage the US economy in the run-up to the presidential election. So we can expect a long lull on this front.
Against this background, the result of the week was the strengthening of the Japanese currency to the level of 107.88. However, this was followed by a small rebound, as a result of which the pair put the final chord of the week at 108.16;
 
– cryptocurrencies. Fundstrat co-founder and analyst Tom Lee is confident that the stock market directly affects Bitcoin quotes. "Last Friday (October 25), the S&P 500 index began to grow actively due to the increase in the share price of a number of large technology companies. Bitcoin strengthened significantly as well. Many mentioned XI Jinping's speeches, but in fact everything could come together in the stock market, " Li said. However, he somehow did not take into account that the growth of technology stocks could be caused by the statement of the head of China regarding the popularization of digital currencies and blockchain.
Be that as it may, according to a report provided by Google Trends, thanks to the Bitcoin rally, the number of Internet requests on the topic of cryptocurrencies increased by 30 percent last week. But if the growth of Bitcoin caused the growth of requests, then the growth of requests did not affect Bitcoin in any way. As we expected, after such a shake-up, the market went into a calming stage, volatility gradually came to naught, and quotes, consolidating in the $9,250 zone, drew a figure known in technical analysis as the "pennant".
Following the main cryptocurrency (BTC/USD), such top altcoins as Ethereum (ETH/USD), Ripple (XRP/USD) and Litecoin (LTC/USD) did the same. The total market capitalization of the crypto market was not an exception, which is logical, its volume gradually decreased during the week from $257 billion to $239 billion.



As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. On November 1, the ECB began buying market assets worth 20 billion euros per month. On the same day, former IMF chief Christine Lagarde replaced Mario Draghi as head of the Bank. Under her, according to some experts, the monetary policy of the European regulator will become softer. That, as a consequence, will cause a decline in the Euro against the dollar.
But there is a reverse scenario. It suggests that under pressure from Trump, the US Federal Reserve will reduce the interest rate to zero. This will solve the problem with dollar liquidity and, providing the American market with cheap money, help Trump in re-election for a second term. The US government debt, according to the US Treasury Department, has already reached a record high of $23 trillion. And further printing of unsecured money could significantly weaken the dollar. Trump's pre-election intention to reduce the payroll tax can also contribute to the fall of the US currency.
This situation forces global players to be more cautious, as a result of which the monthly volatility in the EUR/USD pair fell to 4.5%. This happened only twice – in 2007. and in 2014.
If we talk about the very near future, the fall of the dollar and the growth of the Euro in the coming week is expected by 60% of analysts, supported by 90% of oscillators and trend indicators on H4 and D1. The nearest goal is the rise and consolidation of the pair in the 1.1200-1.1250 echelon. The next targets are 1.1350 and 1.1410.   
40% of experts supported by graphical analysis and 10% of oscillators giving signals about the European currency being overbought voted for the decline of the Euro. In this scenario, the pair is most likely to move in the side channel 1.1075-1.1175. And in case of breakdown of its lower border, there will be a decrease to support in the 1.1000 zone.
The formation of local trends may be influenced by the change in the ISM business activity index in the service sector, the value of which will be known on Tuesday 05 November. According to forecasts, it can grow from 52.6 to 53.2, which in the short term will strengthen the dollar;

- GBP/USD. Thursday 07 November will be dedicated to the UK. On this day, the Bank of England will announce its decision on the interest rate, as well as the planned volume of asset purchases. These figures are likely to remain unchanged. Therefore, of greater interest is the speech of the head of the Bank Mark Carney, in which investors will look for an answer to the question of how the regulator will behave in the event of a particular outcome of the early parliamentary elections. Even here, though, Carney may confine himself to phrases as foggy as London weather.
At the moment, the vast majority of indicators are colored green. 65% of experts also expect that, following in the wake of the Euro, the pound will improve its position against the dollar. The nearest resistance is 1.3015, the target is 1.3125.
The remaining 35%, together with graphical analysis on H4 and D1, believe that the GBP/USD pair will stay in the side corridor 1.2790-1.3015. If its lower border breaks, the next support is in the 1.2700 zone;

- USD/JPY. It is unlikely to expect surprises from the meeting of the monetary policy Committee of the Bank of Japan on Monday 06 November as well. Moreover, last week the regulator not only confirmed the immutability of its course, but also removed the deadlines for it. Now it's "not until 2020," but " as long as will be needed." Rather, the yen will be affected on Tuesday by the ISM business activity index in the US services sector.
At the moment the opinions of the experts are distributed as follows: 65%, supported by 75% of indicators, vote for further decline of the pair, 30%, supported by 25% of indicators, side with the bulls. Support levels are 107.50 and 106.65, resistance levels are at108.50, 109.00, 109.30 and 110.70;
 
– cryptocurrencies. Professor of Economics at Stanford University Darrell Duffy believes that within 10 years, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies will be able to completely replace the usual banking system. And regulatory pressure on Libra and other promising projects is a big mistake. "Regulators will regret that they could not find a common language with Zuckerberg and other developers. A shadow cryptocurrency with such a vast community (Facebook) can easily bring down the financial system in a matter of months, " Duffy threatened.
However, when moving from a 10-year timeframe to a 7-day timeframe, the appetites of most analysts become much more modest. So, 50% of them are waiting for the continuation of the sideways trend along the consolidation line in the corridor $9,000-9,500. 25% believe that the BTC/USD pair can reach the $9,700-10,000 zone, and the remaining 25%, on the contrary, expect to see it around $8,100-8,500.
As for the medium-term forecast, 80% of experts believe that the pair will meet the onset of 2020 in the $10,500-11,000 zone.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/

[1714117648]

1714117648

[1714117648]

1714117648

[1714117648]

1714117648

[Stan NordFX]

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for November 11 – 15, 2019

 
First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. On Thursday, November 07, the US markets updated historical highs after reports of the US and China willingness to remove duties as new parts of the Trade Treaty are being signed. Speculators have turned their backs on traditional safe havens such as bonds, yen and gold. The European currency has also become cheaper against the dollar: investors expect the US macroeconomic indicators to improve after the US-China trade war ends. And although it is still a long way to signing a full-fledged agreement, analysts believe that Donald Trump will no longer make any sudden moves ahead of the upcoming US presidential election.
Last week 40% of experts, supported by graphical analysis, voted for the reduction of the Euro. 10% of the oscillators pointed that the European currency was overbought, which is a strong signal for the trend to change. In the case of a breakdown of the lower border of the side channel 1.1075-1.1175, the bearish scenario provided for a decrease of the pair to support in the 1.1000 zone. This was what happened in reality: by the end of the week session, the pair was at 1.1016, and the final chord was set at 1.1020;

- GBP/USD. As expected, the Bank of England left the interest rate unchanged at 0.75%. But what analysts did not expect was that two of the nine members of the monetary policy Committee would vote to cut the rate to 0.50%. These two votes were enough for the pound to lose more than 70 points.
In general, as expected, the pound followed in the wake of the Euro. And if the EUR/USD pair lost about 150 points in five days, the British currency fell by 170 points, ending the week at 1.2780;     

- USD/JPY. As mentioned above, the progress in the US-China talks reflected on the attractiveness of the yen as a safe-haven currency. As a result, the fall of the Japanese currency against the dollar at the maximum on Thursday 07 November amounted to 130 points. The pair met the end of the five-day period at the level of 109.22;

– cryptocurrencies. As for the news background, so strongly affecting the quotes of digital currencies, the past week was not particularly outstanding. Therefore, Bitcoin quietly moved along the consolidation line in the corridor $9,100-9,500 until Friday. However, November 08 brought disappointment to investors and traders who opened long positions. The reference cryptocurrency went down sharply and, having lost 6% of its value in a few hours, found a local bottom at the level of $8,680.
It is difficult to say unequivocally what was the reason for such a fall. Fans of technical analysis refer to the narrowing triangle on the 4-hour BTC/USD chart. The reason could be the news about another – the seventh this year – hacking of a cryptocurrency exchange. This time, hackers withdrew funds in 23 digital assets totaling about $500 thousand from the Vietnamese exchange VinDAX.
Speaking of digital assets. The past week is interesting because a number of top altcoins did not follow in the wake of the main cryptocurrency but demonstrated independent dynamics. Unlike Bitcoin, which went to the south, Ethereum (ETH/USD) completed the seven-day period in the same place where it began, and Litecoin (LTC/USD) put up by 5%.
Ripple was different. It should be noted that, despite the efforts of the management of Ripple, the clouds over this token continue to thicken. It "shrunk" by 90% in 2018-2019. The last week was no exception. The week volatility of the XRP/USD pair was about 14%, and it fell to the level of 0.2710 on Friday 07 November.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. In the coming week, we are expecting a lot of significant economic events. Among them the speech of the head of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell in the US Congress in the middle of the week should be noted. Also, the formation of local trends may be influenced by inflation data in the United States on Wednesday 13 November, the Eurozone GDP estimate on Thursday 14 November, and data on retail sales in the United States on Friday 15 November.
The rate of inflation in the United States should be seen with a special attention, because if inflation for October is much lower than the forecast, the Fed may decide on the fourth this year's interest rate cut next month.
And, of course, the market will listen carefully to the news about the progress of the US-China trade war. There are many chances that the optimism associated with the decision of the parties to phase out customs tariffs will continue this week. Investors are also expecting some positive news from US President Trump's meeting with Chinese President XI Jinping in December. That is why 65% of experts voted for the further strengthening of the dollar and the decline of the Euro to the zone 1.0940-1.0990. The further target is the minimum of October 01, 1.0880.
Graphical analysis and indicators show a rare unanimity with analysts: 90% of oscillators and 100% of indicators are colored red.
Only 20% of experts and 10% of oscillators expect the pair to grow, signaling it is oversold. The nearest resistance zone is 1.1075, then 1.1110 and 1.1180.
And finally, the remaining 15% of analysts talk about a sideways trend. Over the past four weeks, the pair has formed a double-headed top, and experts expect it to stay at its base for some time, moving in the range of 1.0990-1.1075;

[

- GBP/USD. The UK economy is experiencing constant difficulties because of the uncertainty due to Brexit. There was a decline in the construction industry by 1.3% in the 2nd quarter of this year and a drop in industrial production, caused, among other things, by the closure of several automobile plants. For this reason, data on UK GDP in the 3rd quarter, which will be known on Monday 11 November, can cause serious jumps in the British currency. According to the forecast, GDP growth could reach +0.3% against -0.2% in the previous quarter, which will push the pair up.
The main driver of the GBP/USD pair will remain the dollar. As in the case of the Euro, 65% of experts, graphical analysis on D1 and the vast majority of indicators are waiting for its strengthening and the fall of the pound. Supports are at 1.2700, 1.2650 and 1.2550 levels.
As for the remaining 35% of analysts, they believe that after reaching the lower limit of the three-week side channel 1.2770-1.3000, the pair will turn around and go north. 15% of oscillators on H4 and D1 agree with this as well, giving signals that the pair is oversold;

- USD/JPY. The situation with the Japanese currency is similar to the Euro and the pound. It is also under pressure from improving macroeconomic indicators of the United States and China after the signing of the "Peace Treaty".
On Thursday, November 14, data on Japan's GDP growth in the 3rd quarter will be released. Analysts are already predicting a slowdown in the Japanese economy. So the Japanese yen will have another reason to weaken in the short term, with which 65% of experts agree. The nearest resistance level is 109.50, then 110.00 and 110.70.
Only 10% of analysts have voted for the strengthening of the yen and the decline of the pair, and 25% believe that the pair will move sideways along the Pivot Point 109.00;
 
– cryptocurrencies. The Bitcoin Crypto Fear & Greed Index deviated from the average value and moved closer to the fear zone by the end of the week. According to the classical interpretation, this position is a reason to think about opening long positions. However, investors have recently become much more cautious and expect all sorts of traps from sharp price spikes. 
60% of experts remain pessimistic as well. So, according to Bloomberg analysts, the first cryptocurrency has a chance to fall to the level of $8,000 before the end of the year. The growth of the BTC/USD pair, as already mentioned, will be hampered by sales due to fears of "burning". However, despite this, 40% of experts believe that bitcoin will still be able to meet the onset of 2020 in the $10,500-11,000 zone.
For those who do not want to be nervous, daily watching the schedule of quotations, here is  a piece of advice from the Director of the American bitcoin exchanger BitInstant Charlie Shrem. In his opinion, "the best way to invest in bitcoin is to hide 5 to 10 BTC in a cold wallet, and in such a way that you yourself can not access them for 20 years." "I do believe," he said, " that in 20 years 5-10 Bitcoins will be the money that will change your life for the better. Bitcoin will survive even a nuclear disaster, while banks and paper money will literally burn."


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/

[Stan NordFX]

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for November 18 – 22, 2019

 
First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. President Trump is plannng to be re-elected for a second term thanks to the strong growth of American GDP. Major US indices continue to storm historical highs. Futures on the S&P500 rose above 3100. The wave of purchases in the markets was spurred by the optimistic statement of the White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow about the imminent conclusion of a trade deal with China. At the same time, the Financial Times reports that, in fact, the White House is not happy that China is stalling and not offering significant concessions in response to the abolition of tariffs. And Trump himself does not want to cancel them completely.
Speaking in Congress, the Fed Chairman Jerome Powellpraises the US economy, calling it a "star", but at the same time, citing many factors, including inflation and trade wars, does not rule out another interest rate cut. As a result, his words, together with the encouraging GDP of Germany, stopped the downward trend of the EUR/USD pair at the support of 1.0990 and pushed the European currency up, allowing it to finish the week with a small plus of 35 points;

- GBP/USD. The UK is preparing for early parliamentary elections. Therefore, there is no special news directly related to Brexit. And in this situation, the market begins to react actively to macroeconomic indicators. Thus, data on UK GDP in the 3rd quarter became known on Monday, November 11. As we predicted, the GDP growth was +0.3% against -0.2% in the previous quarter, which pushed the pair up more than 110 points to 1.2900. Then, until Thursday, the dollar tried to play back losses. But at the end of the week, thanks to the head of the Federal reserve Jerome Powell, the bulls took the initiative in their hands once again, and the pair ended the week near the landmark level of 1.2900;

- USD/JPY. The more or less stable demand for the yen remained almost until the end of Thursday 14 November. The market hardly reacted even to the really weak GDP figures of Japan in the 3rd quarter (+0.1% compared to +0.4% in the previous quarter). All this allowed the Japanese currency to gain 100 points since the beginning of the week, reaching the critical point of contact with the MA-200 on the four-hour chart, which investors often use as a trend indicator. But the breakdown of the support and the reversal of the trend did not happen: thanks to the optimistic statements of Larry Kudlow about the course of the US-Chinese negotiations, the demand for protective assets fell, and the pair went north again, ending the trading session at 108.80 yen per 1 dollar; 

– cryptocurrencies. The forecast, which was supported last week by the majority of experts (60%), can be reduced to just two words: "caution" and "pessimism". It is in line with these two concepts that the benchmark currency follows, gradually declining since the end of October. As a result, the pair reached the local bottom at $8,420 on the evening of November 15, returning to the boundaries of the side channel of $7,800-8,600, in which it moved from September 26 to October 22.
The pair was below the 200-day moving average for the whole last week, and it broke through the support in the form of a 50-day average as well by the end of the week, which also did not contribute to the growth of bullish optimism.
Top altcoins generally followed the bitcoin, repeating its poor performance. Ripple (XRP/USD) was not assisted by the large-scale support company deployed by bloggers and media, nor by its inclusion in The Coinbase debit card payment list. Ripple shrank another 8% during the week, reaching a low of $0.2528   
Ethereum (ETH/USD) is struggling to keep from breaking the lower border of the three-week side channel of $175-195. Holders of this coin are constantly warmed by the idea that, thanks to POS-mining (proof of ownership), it may be recognized as a security in the future, which will cause an explosive growth in quotations.
Litecoin (LTC/USD) also found support near the bottom of the three-week corridor of $57-64. This level can be considered as a medium-term Pivot Point, around which the pair rotates starting from September 25.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. As mentioned above, thanks to the statement of the head of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell and encouraging data on German GDP, the bears failed to break through the support at the level of 1.1000. After the GDP growth from -0.2% to +0.1%, representatives of the German government believe that the introduction of additional incentives to support the economy in the near future will not be required. Consumer demand together with government spending will be able to neutralize the problems of industry and exports.
It should be noted here that many macroeconomic indicators of the EU countries have recently turned out to be higher than forecast. However, uncertainty in the markets persists, and the preponderance of supporters of bulls over bears is now only 10%.  55% of experts voted for the growth of the Euro against 45%, who are convinced of the dollar strength. At the same time, both set modest goals for the pair. The goal of the bulls is its return in the corridor 1.1075-1.1175. The goal for the bears is a breakout of the 1.1000 support and transition to the 1.0940-1.1000 zone. Reaching the low of October 01, 1.0884, seems unlikely this week.
90% of oscillators and 80% of trend indicators on H4 side with the bulls. On D1, the picture is the opposite¬: 85% of oscillators and 75% of trend indicators are colored red. Graphical analysis on both H4 and D1 is also on the side of the bears and indicates a fall of the pair at least to the horizon of 1.0965.
As for significant events that can affect the formation of trends and cause increased volatility next week,  we are looking at the meeting of the US Federal Reserve and the ECB on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively, as well as the speech of the new head of the ECB Christine Lagarde and data on business activity in the EU and Germany on Friday 22 November;
 
- GBP/USD. Against the backdrop of the Brexit respite, it is difficult to say what markets reaction will be caused by the hearing of the inflation report in the UK on Wednesday 20 November. But as the conservatives build their election program with an emphasis, among other, on the weakening of the country's economy, one can expect a number of loud statements from them.
In the meantime, 60% of experts, supported by graphical analysis on D1, expect a reversal of the uptrend and the return of the pair to the November 08 low, 1.2765, and then its fall by another 100 points. The opposite position is taken by 40% of analysts in agreement with 100% of trend indicators and 90% of oscillators on H4 and D1. (The remaining 10% of the oscillators signal the pound is overbought). The nearest resistance levels are 1.2975 and 1.3015. The target is the height of 1.3100;

- USD/JPY. The yen has been falling for almost all autumn, and the pair moves up, relying on the MA200, which is clearly visible on the H4 chart. At least four attempts to break through this support ended in failure. And how the fifth attempt will end depends directly on the macroeconomic indicators of the United States and China, and the prospects of signing a "Peace Treaty" between them.
The White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow's optimism about an imminent trade deal with China in the coming week could be quickly negated by both his boss, President Trump, and representatives of the Chinese government. So, it is quite possible that the pair will be able to reverse the uptrend and, at least, move to a sideways movement.
Experts' opinions are currently divided 50-50. The situation is similar with the indicators. Therefore, we can assume that the pair is expected to move sideways along the Pivot Point 108.75 in the corridor with the boundaries of 107.80-109.50 for some time. The next support is in the area of 107.00, resistance –110.30;

– cryptocurrencies. If you look at what has happened to bitcoin in 10 years, everything seems to be fine: it has risen in price 100 times during this time. But it does not want to continue to grow. Those who were going to purchase this cryptocurrency as a long-term investment have already done so. And now the market belongs to short-term speculators, who play not only on the rise, but also on the fall. The mantra of such apologists as co-founder of the oldest Chinese crypto exchange BTCC Bobby Lee, that the price of bitcoin will rise to $500 thousand by 2028, does not affect them. The speculators are focused on quick profits, which can only be obtained thanks to the increased volatility of cryptocurrencies and the news that creates this volatility.
Halving of Bitcoin in 2020 will become such a piece of news. In the near future, it will be the hard fork Istanbul, which the creators of Ethereum are going to hold on December 4, 2019. Another piece of news is the launch of regulated bitcoin options on Bakkt, which is also scheduled for early December. These and similar events can cause sharp one-time jumps in quotations.
In our previous review we wrote that, according to Bloomberg analysts, the first cryptocurrency has a chance to fall to the level of $8,000 before the end of the year. The height of $12,000 is called as a possible high. As for the high of the year 2020, it is at $16,000. A similar opinion with his colleagues from Bloomberg was previously expressed by the head of the Binance crypto exchange, Changpeng Zhao. According to him, traders and investors in China can ensure the growth of the reference coin at least to such a height.
But this can be prevented by one event. A sensational statement was made by Jack Lee, founder and managing partner of HCM Capital. He believes that the People's Bank of China will issue its own digital currency in two to three months. And it is this currency that investors from China can switch their attention and capitals to.
As for the forecast for the very near future, since the BTC/USD pair has fallen to the boundaries of the side channel of $7,800-8,600, three scenarios are possible here. The first is bearish, according to which the pair will continue to move to the lower border of the channel. 25% of experts vote for it. The same number support the second, bullish, scenario. When it is implemented, the upper limit of the channel $8,600 will act as a support, starting from which the pair will go up. The nearest resistance is $8,815, the next ones are $9,130 and $9,470. And finally, the third scenario. According to it, the $8,600 level will act as a Pivot Point along which the pair will move to the east. This development is supported by the majority of analysts, 50%.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/

[Stan NordFX]

Open an Account: https://nordfx.com/

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

[Stan NordFX]

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for November 25 – 29, 2019

 
First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. Recall that the previous forecast focused on the uncertainty that has been reigning in the markets recently. At that time, the preponderance of the bulls' supporters over the bears was only 10%. 55% of experts voted for the growth of the European currency, against were 45%. As if responding to such a balance of forces, the pair grew slightly on Monday, November 11 and, reaching the level of 1.0900, moved into a sideways trend. It stayed there until Friday, when, due to weak European statistics (PMI) and the speech of the new Head of the ECB Christine Lagarde, it went down sharply. However, it could not break through the support of 1.1000 and ended the five-day period at 1.1020.
Ms. Lagarde added more fog and uncertainty to the markets, saying that Europe needed a new system of economic measures and that the European regulator would soon review its strategy. But what this new strategy will be is completely unclear, especially recalling that there is discord in the ECB Governing Council and there is no consensus on the resumption of quantitative easing (QE);

- GBP/USD. The UK is preparing for early parliamentary elections, on which both the situation with Brexit and the further economic situation in the country depend. There is no clarity for now, as in the case of the Euro. Therefore, both bulls and bears are looking for reasons to push the pair in one or another direction, in the economic news.
If we sum up the results of the past week, the victory has remained for the bears. Taking advantage of the fact that the preliminary PMI business activity index in the services sector fell below the critical level of 50.0 and amounted to 48.6, they pushed the pair down to the level of 1.2822. The final chord of the week was made at the level of 1.2835;

- USD/JPY. As already noted, the yen has been falling for almost all autumn, and the pair has been moving up, relying on the MA200 on the four-hour timeframe. At least four attempts to break through this support have ended in failure. And how the fifth attempt will end, we wrote last week, depends largely on the prospects of signing a trade agreement between the US and China. However, despite a lot of optimistic statements, there are no specific results yet. American negotiators seem to be ready for the meeting but are waiting for assurances from the Chinese side that Beijing is ready to commit to the protection of intellectual property and technology, as well as the purchase of agricultural products from the United States. Whether China will do it, and in what form, is a question. And so the fifth attempt to break through the MA200 undertaken in the middle of last week, failed as well. Having fallen to the level of 108.27, the pair turned around and finished the week session slightly above the specified moving average, at the level of 108.63;

– cryptocurrencies. The main "forecast", which most often sounds recently, can be reduced to only two words: "caution" and "pessimism". We hope that traders and investors followed our first advice, because the second one has once again justified itself completely: at the low on Friday November 22, Bitcoin lost almost 20%, falling from $8,500 to $6,820. The reason for such a bearish rally, according to many experts, were miners who began an active sale of their crypto assets. Some of them needed fiat to stay afloat and continue to work, and some, disappointed, just decided to leave the market.
An additional impetus to the sales was given by rumors from Chinese Shanghai about the visit of the police to the office of the Binance crypto exchange.
Top altcoins, such as Ripple (XRP/USD), Ethereum (ETH/USD) and Litecoin (LTC/USD), amicably followed the "big brother", Bitcoin. As a result, the total capitalization of the crypto market decreased by 15.8%, from $239 billion to $201 billion.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States has risen again. The GDP growth in the fourth quarter is still not even up to 0.5%. All this makes investors think about the onset of a recession in the American economy. Next week we are waiting for the next batch of macroeconomic indicators from the United States, which will either confirm or refute the version about the possible next reduction of the Federal Reserve interest rate in January-February. Moreover, such a reduction may not be "traditional" 0.25%, but twice as much, 0.5%.
Of course, this largely depends on the final results of the fourth quarter and 2019 as a whole. But do not forget that 2020 is the year of the US Presidential election, and the state of the American economy depends on whether Trump will remain in the White House for a second term. For now, under his pressure, the Fed is implementing easing policies step by step and pumping the economy with dollars. A similar situation was in the early 2000s. Then, by lowering the rates, the Fed tried to raise production, and it resulted in a bubble of mortgage lending, which burst, leading to the crisis of 2007-2008.
At the moment, the vast majority of indicators are colored red. But in the situation of uncertainty described above, experts do not expect that the pair will still be able to break through the support of 1.1000. Graphical analysis on H4 and D1 also indicates that after one or two unsuccessful attempts to do this, the pair will turn around and go up: first to the resistance of 1.1090, and then even higher, up to the horizon of 1.1175.
Of course, the results of the next round of the US-Chinese trade talks, which Beijing wants to hold before November 28, Thanksgiving In the US, can greatly affect the quotes. 65% of analysts expect that a certain consensus will be reached on this issue by the end of the year, which will lead to the growth of the dollar and the decline of the EUR/USD pair to the zone 1.0800-1.0900;
 
- GBP/USD. In anticipation of the parliamentary elections in the UK on December 12 and a Brexit respite, the pair has been moving in the side channel 1.2780-1.2980 for the fifth week. Trend indicators and D1 oscillators are painted in neutral gray. The forecasts of experts can be called "gray" too (50% to 50%). The hearing of the Inflation Report on Wednesday November 27 is unlikely to push the pair beyond this channel. The situation in the coming week depends much more on the US than on the UK. And the clear progress in the US-China trade talks may give the pair a strong bearish impulse, lowering it to the support of 1.2650;   

- USD/JPY. The Fed is pumping the markets with dollar liquidity. But the Bank of Japan has been doing the same for many years in an effort to increase inflation and revive production. At the same time, the interest rate set by the Japanese regulator for the yen is much lower than for the dollar. So the Japanese currency is of interest to investors only as a refuge from financial storms. However, according to the chart, there have been no particularly strong storms since the end of the summer, and therefore the yen is falling, and the curve of quotations is steadily creeping up.
Now there is a consolidation in the zone of 108.60 yen per dollar. But progress in signing a trade agreement between the US and China may push the pair further up ¬ – to the level of 109.50. It is this movement that most experts (65%) expect from it in the near future.
It should be noted that in the medium term, even more analysts (70%) are waiting for the pair to turn south and return to the 105.70-106.70 zone. And at most, these expectations are related to the deterioration of US economic indicators and further quantitative easing by the Fed;

– cryptocurrencies. At the time of writing this forecast, the BTC/USD pair is approximately where it was a month ago, before the "space" takeoff on October 25. Recall that the benchmark cryptocurrency reached $10,500 then, adding 40% at its highest point, due to the news that Chinese President Xi Jinping had supported the blockchain development.
If you look at the chart, it is very clear that, since June 26, Bitcoin has been moving in a downward channel. And if this movement continues, we can expect first a sideways movement along the horizon of $7,300, and then another collapse, now down to $5,000.
The main hope of investors which may be able to support the bitcoin exchange rate is the 2020 halving. According to some of them, after halving in 2020, the rate of this cryptocurrency can soar by 4000%. They cite the sharp jumps in the value of the main digital asset, which occurred after the last two cuts in rewards for miners, as an argument. After the first cut, it rose by 3420%. After the second – by 4080%.     
At the moment, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index of bitcoin has fallen into the lower red quarter and is equal to 23, which corresponds to "extreme fear". According to the creators of the index, this indicator can mean that the market is in a strong panic, and it is probable that the growth will begin soon. After all, large speculators who bought coins, playing for a decrease to earn, must at some point start the game to increase. This, in fact, is the logic of the market.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/

[Stan NordFX]

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for December 02 - 06, 2019

 
First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. it looks like the thanksgiving celebration in the US started not in Thursday 28 November, but as early as on Monday 25. The last week of autumn was unusually calm, and the volatility did not exceed 40 points until Friday, driving traders into hibernation. Positive data on GDP and production in the US were balanced by the growth of the consumer price index (CPI) in the Eurozone. And even the controversial law on support for democracy and human rights in Hong Kong, signed by President Trump on Thursday, coupled with a sharp reaction to it from Beijing, made little impression on the markets.
Recall that our previous forecast said that in the current situation, the pair will not be able to break through the support of 1.1000 and after one or two unsuccessful attempts, it will turn around and go up. That's exactly what happened. Even the breakthrough at the end of the week to the level of 1.0980 was unsuccessful, and the pair soon returned to where it started the five-day period, to the zone of 1.1015-1.1020;

- GBP/USD. In anticipation of the parliamentary elections in the UK, since the last decade of October, the pair is moving in the side channel 1.2780-1.2980. Thanksgiving in the United States only narrowed this channel to the interval 1.2825-1.2950, and the final chord of the week sounded at 1.2935;

- USD/JPY. The majority of experts (65%) expect that the pair will reach the height of 109.50 within the week. This forecast was justified by 100%. And even China's threats against the United States because of support for protesters in Hong Kong did not prevent the growth of the dollar. Threats remain threats, but the trade agreement must be signed. As a result, the pair rose to the level of 109.66 by Friday evening, and ended the trading session at the level of 109.44;

– cryptocurrencies. This is the market that, unlike Forex, never sleeps. And first a few words about the news background, statements and actions of financial mega-regulators. So representatives of the European Central Bank did not rule out the release of their own tokens. Even ECB Board Member Benoit Coeure, who previously called bitcoin "an evil creation of the financial crisis of 2008", supported the idea of "crypto-Euro" . South Korea went as far as to recognize cryptocurrencies, adopting a bill to regulate virtual assets. But the Central Bank of Russia has once again shown its negative attitude to alternative financial products, agreeing with the proposal to ban all payments with bitcoin and other coins.
But, of course, the strongest impact on the market this fall was the news from China. Recall that the regulator of Shanghai has recently decided to liquidate companies engaged in cryptocurrency trading, and the regulator of Beijing declared the illegality of exchange operations with cryptocurrencies. The mega-regulator, the people's Bank of China, announced its position on Friday, November 22, ordering all companies to eliminate any improper practices of working with crypto assets. Representatives of such an influential force as the Communist Party of China also support a complete ban on digital currencies. As a result, investments in bitcoin in China decreased by more than 15% at the end of November.
In general the cryptocurrency market has "shrunk" by more than $20 billion over the past week, which is almost 10% of its volume. But, despite this, the week, in general, can be called successful for bitcoin. Having found a six-month bottom at $6,585 on Monday, November 25, the benchmark cryptocurrency bounced back up, resting on a strong level of $7,800. In the period from September 26 to October 22, it made a strong support for the BTC/USD pair. And now there are a lot of chances to turn into an equally strong resistance.
Quotes of top altcoins, such as Ripple (XRP/USD), Ethereum (ETH/USD) and Litecoin (LTC/USD), generally repeated the movements of the "big brother". However, if compared to Friday, November 22, Bitcoin grew by about 5%, altcoins were only able to win back losses, returning to their original positions.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. We would like to hope that with the onset of winter, both bears and bulls will not finally go into hibernation. Moreover, these days we are waiting for a number of quite important events. This is the speech of the new head of the ECB Christine Lagarde and the publication of the US business activity data (ISM) in the first half of the week, Eurozone GDP data on Thursday, and the US labor market (including NFP) on Friday.
According to forecasts, such an important indicator as the number of new jobs created outside agriculture (Non-Farm Payrolls, NFP), can grow in the US by more than 40% (from 128K to 183K). Which may still lead to a breakdown of support 1.1000. At the moment, 65% of experts agree that the pair will be able to fall to the 1.0880-1.0925 zone, supported by 95% of oscillators and trend indicators on D1. There is another support on the way of the pair to the south: 1.0940.
The opposite view is shared by only 35% of analysts and graphical analysis on H4 and D1. In their opinion, the pair will go north starting from the support of 1.0980-1.1000. The targets are 1.1100 and 1.1175;

- GBP/USD. The results of the parliamentary elections, and, accordingly, the future of Brexit, will be known only in a week and a half, after December 12. For now, investors are focused on the statements of politicians and, for a small part, on the macroeconomic indicators of the UK, the EU and the US. From above, the pound is pressured by the decline in the yield of 10-year UK government bonds in relation to similar securities of its "competitors". From below, due to the correlation of the British currency with "black gold", it is pushed up by an upward trend in the oil market. And here it should be borne in mind that the OPEC+ summit next week may well extend the limit on carbon production, which will lead to a shortage of oil and an increase in its cost, especially in the III and IV quarters of 2020. In general, in everything that concerns the pound, there is a complete uncertainty so far.
Experts' forecasts look similar: 40% are for the growth of this currency, 40% are for its fall, and 20% just shrug. So, we can assume that the GBP/USD pair will continue to move in a sideways channel until the parliamentary elections, consolidating in the Pivot Point zone of 1.2900;

- USD/JPY. Most investors considered the differences between the US and China concerning human rights in Hong Kong unimportant. In their opinion, a trade deal will sooner or later be concluded, which will lead to a rise in the dollar, including the rise against the yen. The growth of the US stock market and the SP500 index, according to 85% of experts, will push the USD/JPY pair up to the landmark level of 110.00 already now (taking into account the slippage-110.25). However, the pair can then turn to the south and return first to the intersection of the horizontal support and the lower border of the ascending channel around 109.00. And then go down and even lower: the next support levels are 108.50 and 107.80. This scenario is fully supported by graphical analysis on H4 and 15% of oscillators on D1, according to which the pair is already in the overbought zone;

– cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin is still within the downward channel, which began on June 26. Some experts call the rebound that occurred last week a "dead cat jump", believing that we will soon see another collapse of the BTC/USD pair, now to the level of $5,000. However, according to most analysts, the pair will stay within the side corridor of $7,000-8,000 for some time.
About 40% of experts remain optimistic and hopeful that the upper limit of this corridor will be broken. At the same time, for example, the famous financial analyst Joseph Young, although confident in the long-term growth of the cryptocurrency market, does not exclude the fall of Bitcoin to $3000-4000. Martin McDonagh, co-founder of investment firm KR1, has expressed a similar opinion. "Now, swinging like a pendulum, the market tries to know where the bottom is once again", he says. "I think we are in the early stages of a bull market and we will soon see rising highs on the way to new heights," he predicts.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/

[Stan NordFX]

Philippine Traders Prefer NordFX

"We only trade with NordFX!"- this motto was supported by hundreds of beginners and experienced traders who took part in a series of seminars that were held in Eastern Mindanao, Philippines.

The seminars, which aimed to learn trading in the currency and crypto-currency markets, were held in cities such as Davao, Tagum, Panabo and General Santos, bringing together from several dozen to several hundred participants. In addition to the well-known, with well-deserved popularity, trading tools and services of NordFX, the new products of this broker were presented to the audience, such as, for example, CFD contracts and investment funds, which included the shares of the world's leading and most profitable companies.

"Manila, Bukidnon, Cavite, Baguio, Laguna, Batangas, Cebu are just some of the places where seminars are also held and will be held," the organizers say. "Our task is not just to acquaint the Forex community of the Philippines with the opportunities and advantages offered by the brokerage company NordFX. The main thing is that the participants of the seminars get the knowledge that will make their trade more successful and profitable."


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/

[Stan NordFX]

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for December 09 - 13, 2019

 
First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. The Euro rose sharply on Monday. This is not to say that no one expected it. 35% of analysts and graphical analysis on H4 and D1 predicted the pair's rise to the height of 1.1100. Some may have decided that the growth is associated with the performance of the new head of the European Central Bank Christine Lagarde. But it is unlikely that this version is correct, since the words of this high-ranking official for the most part did not concern the prospects of monetary policy but were devoted to the prospects of the emergence of the crypto-Euro. Although, the jet of fresh air in the work of the mega-regulator could for sure contribute to the strengthening of the European currency.
The publication of business activity indices in the manufacturing sectors of Germany and the European Union, which showed a small increase, also added to the positive mood. But as for macroeconomic statistics from the United States, it did not make investors happy: ISM business activity indices in the manufacturing sector and the services sector showed a decrease. As a result, at its high, the Euro rose to 1.1116.
The end of the week was without surprises. As expected, such an important indicator as the number of new jobs created in the US outside of agriculture (Non-Farm Payrolls, NFP), increased by more than 70%. And the markets immediately reacted by strengthening the dollar by 60 points. Then there was a slight rebound up, and the pair froze at 1.1060;

- GBP/USD. It would seem that everything was supposed to freeze in anticipation of the parliamentary elections scheduled for Thursday, December 12. After all, the future of Brexit and the UK in general depend on them. But the British currency was climbing steadily all week, buoyed by predictions of an election outcome, weak macroeconomic statistics from the US and the progress of the OPEC + summit. The British currency is strongly correlated with the "black gold", and the decision of oil-producing countries to remove from the market, starting from January 01, 1.7 million barrels per day, also supported the pound. The GBP/USD pair put the final chord of the week at 1.3132, adding more than 215 points in five days; 

- USD/JPY. According to the previous week's scenario, the pair should have turned south, reaching the height of 110.00. However, it did it, remaining some 25 points away from this landmark point. And then everything happened exactly according to the forecast: a fall to the support of 109.00, then a pause, and a decline to the next support in the zone of 108.50. Not far from it, at the level of 108.55, the pair met the end of the trading session;

– cryptocurrencies. Twitter brought an unexpected piece of news. Rather, it was brought by the CEO of this social network Jack Dorsey, who said that the future of the cryptocurrency industry will be determined by... Africa. Why? Just because Africa... is very poor, and this will be one of the main reasons for the adoption of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies by the countries of this continent.
There may be some logic to this, but for now, what happens in the digital market is determined by the US, Europe and China. Last week, Europe distinguished itself. It turned out that the European mega-regulator is actively exploring the possibility of launching an official digital Euro. "Our goal," said the new head of the ECB Christine Lagarde at a hearing in the European Parliament, " is to create an innovative, reliable and integrated payment system in Europe. This will benefit everyone in the Euro area and significantly strengthen the Euro's position in the world." But then she added that it is necessary to assess all risks from such a step and weigh all the "pros" and "cons" very carefully.
As for the forecast for the past week, it was absolutely correct on the whole. Recall that, according to most analysts, the pair BTC/USD was in for a sideways trend in the range of $7,000-8,000. At the same time, 40% of experts did not rule out attempts to break the upper limit of this channel.
In reality, everything happened like that. Starting near its upper limit, the pair went down to the level of $7,095. Then, there was a sharp upswing on Wednesday 04 December, but the efforts of the bulls were only enough to lift Bitcoin to the horizon of $7,865. This was followed by a sharp reversal, a fall to $7,110, and then a return to the central zone of the channel, accompanied by a decrease in volatility to the range of $7,330-7,465.
Quotes of top altcoins, such as Ripple (XRP/USD), Ethereum (ETH/USD) and Litecoin (LTC/USD), generally repeated the movements of the "big brother". And despite the fact that they were in the green zone at the end of the working week, the result of seven days can be characterized as moderately negative. Thus, Ripple lost about 3.5% in price, Ethereum lost 5%, and the cost of Litecoin decreased by 9%.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The USA and Europe expect three important events during the coming week, these are: the decision on interest rates by the Fed on Wednesday 11 December and the ECB on Thursday 12 December, as well as the scheduled elections to the UK Parliament on Thursday. And if the Fed and the ECB are likely to leave rates at the same level for now, some surprises can be expected from the elections in the United Kingdom. The results of the exit polls will be known late on Thursday, Central European time, and the final results of the elections will be known on Friday the 13th. Then we should expect a strong reaction of the markets.
Despite the fact that Friday the 13th enjoys a bad reputation among superstitious people, the forecasts of experts are not so pessimistic. 65% of them, supported by graphical analysis on D1, vote for the growth of the pair to the resistance of 1.1100, and in case the opponents of a hard Brexit win the elections in the UK, the pair can easily reach the height of 1.1175.
As for the forecasts until the end of December, most analysts believe that the pair will move along the Pivot Point 1.1000, making fluctuations in the range 1.0900-1.1100;

- GBP/USD. As mentioned above, the near future of the pound will be decided on December 12. In the meantime, the experts can only shrug. For those who prefer charts and candlestick patterns to fundamental analysis, let's say that the graphical analysis on D1 draws the pair's growth first to the resistance zone of 1.3175, then to 1.3370, and the New Year at the height of 1.3500. 100% of trend indicators and 85% of D1 oscillators support this forecast. The remaining 15% signals that the pair is overbought, which indicates a possible reversal of the trend down;

- USD/JPY. The pair is now within a strong support/resistance zone, clearly visible since April 2017. We can also talk about the sideway with the support at 108.25, which has started this fall.
Most experts (65%) believe that, despite all efforts, the pair will not be able to break through this support in the near future and therefore will move within the side corridor, which started last October. In their opinion, if we see weak enough macroeconomic indicators in Europe and Latin America, investors' attraction to the dollar as a safe-haven currency will increase. And given the difference in interest rates, the dollar will become much more attractive than the yen, which will move the pair up. The nearest resistance is 109.00, the next is 109.30, the target is 109.75.
Of course, the quotes of this pair can also be influenced by the course of the US-Chinese trade negotiations, and the results of the parliamentary elections in the UK. Therefore, a bearish scenario is not excluded, according to which the pair will rush to the minimum on October 03, 106.50. Intermediate supports are in the 107.90, 107.50 and 107.00 zones. 35% of analysts vote for this development, as well as 70% of indicators on D1;

– cryptocurrencies. The most important event of the coming week should be the launch of bitcoin settlement futures on the Bakkt platform on December 09. And it is not for sure that this will help Bitcoin. There is an opinion that this platform is a" hand" of the US Government, able to strangle the crypto market at the right time or, conversely, give it a breath. This version is confirmed by the fact that Bakkt CEO Kelly Loeffler is already sitting in Washington as a Senator from Georgia.
The pressure of regulators on the digital market and the desire to take it under control does not contribute to the growth of quotations of cryptocurrencies. And the threat of instant large losses simply scares away large investors. According to Bloomberg, this led to the closure of 70 cryptocurrency hedge funds in 2019. The number of newly created crypto-funds has also decreased twice compared to the previous year. So, the predictions of bitcoin apologists that this cryptocurrency will rise again to heights in the region of $20,000 by the end of the year are unlikely to come true.
However, according to Ceteris Paribus experts, almost 600 thousand BTC coins (worth about $5 billion) remain without movement over the past year and a half. This speaks to the hopes of private investors for the rise of Bitcoin. The reason for this may be Halving-2020. According to some "crypto gurus", the Bitcoin rate can jump by 4000% as a result of this halving. They cite the sharp jumps in the value of the main digital asset, which occurred after the last two cuts in rewards for miners, as an argument. After the first cut, it rose by 3420%. After the second – by 4080%. However, what happened to the Litecoin, halving of which took place at the end of the summer of 2019, shows that such rosy expectations may be in vain. The LTC quotes indeed began to grow on the eve of this event, but nothing happened on the halving day, and then the LTC/USD pair simply fell down.
Returning to Bitcoin, let's say that the forecasts of most experts for December do not portend the BTC/USD pair anything good. 65% of them see it in the $6,000-6,600 zone. However, once again, a lot depends on how the opening trades on Bakkt are going on. For now, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index is still in its lower third, at 29, which corresponds to the moderate fear of investors.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/

[Stan NordFX]

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for December 16 - 20, 2019

 
First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. As expected, both the Fed and the ECB have left their interest rates unchanged. Accordingly, the reaction of the markets to their decisions was almost zero. President Donald Trump and the new head of the ECB Christine Lagarde were on the side of the dollar last week.
The US President told his followers that "we (i.e. the US) are close to concluding a major deal with China. They want it, just like we do! » That is, if earlier President Trump said that the trade treaty is needed only by Beijing, now it turned out that Washington is also interested in signing it.
Later, Bloomberg reported that Trump, in order to prevent a tariff increase on December 15, has already signed an interim agreement, which, in addition to the rejection of new duties, provides for a reduction in existing tariff rates on many types of Chinese imports as well.
The second driver for the dollar was Christine Lagarde, who reported that the ECB, although it made some adjustments to the forecasts for GDP and inflation for 2020, has in general left in force the current parameters of its monetary policy.
Thanks to these two leaders, the results of the week could be very disastrous for the European currency, if not for the results of the parliamentary elections in the UK. The victory of the Conservative party pushed the pound sharply up, and in turn, it pulled the Euro up. As a result, at the maximum, the EUR/USD pair rose to the level of a strong medium-term support-resistance zone at around 1.1200. However, then the balance of powers was almost restored, and the pair finished at 1.1116;

- GBP/USD. Naturally, following the results of the elections, the gap was demonstrated by not only the Euro, but also, first of all, by the pound. The conservative party led by the current British Prime Minister Boris Johnson won a steady majority of seats in Parliament, which gave hope that the years of confusion with Brexit will finally end, and on January 31, 2020, the process of Britain's exit from the EU will start.
Such an outcome of the election, in general, had been taken into account by the market. Therefore, after the GBP/USD pair soared by almost 500 points and rose above the level of 1.3500, many players began to close long positions, which was facilitated by the above-mentioned steps of President Trump. As a result, by the end of the trading session, the British currency lost almost 180 points, stopping the fall at 1.3340;

- USD/JPY. While the European and British currencies rose against the dollar, the yen, on the contrary, lost ground. Recall that the majority of experts last week voted for the growth of the pair to the height of 109.75, and this forecast was 100% accurate.
The US and China are almost close to signing a trade agreement, and the US stock market on Thursday 12 December updated the historical high. Investors' interest has once again turned to such risky assets as, for example, stock index futures, causing a sell-off of the Japanese currency, which was losing about 130 points at the maximum. The final chord of the week was made at the level of 109.35;

– cryptocurrencies. By the end of last week, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index was still in its lower third, at 29, which corresponded to the moderate fear of investors. That's how the market behaved: moderate purchases with more active sales. The BTC/USD pair moved in the range of $7,100-7,700 all week with some superiority of bears, which gradually pressed it to the lower border of this channel. In seven days, Bitcoin lost about 4.5%. Similar dynamics were demonstrated by top altcoins, such as Ripple (XRP/USD), Ethereum (ETH/USD) and Litecoin (LTC/USD), which generally repeated the movements of the reference cryptocurrency.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. At first glance, there are a lot of important events ahead of us in the coming week. This is the publication of the PMI Markit of Germany and the EU on Monday 16 December, and the speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde on Wednesday, and the publication of the annual data on U.S. GDP on Friday 20 December. However, it is hardly worth waiting for a repeat of the rate hikes, such as those that were caused by the last week's elections in the UK. Some of the experts believe that the pair will be pressured by the success in the US-China trade talks. Others, on the contrary, expect that the pair will continue to move upward for some time by inertia.
It should be noted that 85% of oscillators and trend indicators on D1 are still painted green. 85% of experts are also waiting for the pair to continue growing in the near future. However, this growth, in their opinion, will be insignificant. The pair will try to break through the resistance of 1.1200 again and, taking into account the backlash, it may rise to the zone of 1.1225-1.1235. The next resistance is 1.1255. However, then it will face a trend reversal and return to the 1.1000-1.1100 zone. The implementation of this scenario can take one to three weeks, and 65% of analysts and graphical analysis on D1 fully agree with this;

- GBP/USD. Over the next five days, the UK's macroeconomic statistics will pour down on us like a cornucopia. On Monday¬, it is Markit Services PMI, on Tuesday it is ILO unemployment rate, on Wednesday - the consumer prices index, on Thursday - the Bank of England interest rate decision and the monetary policy report, on Friday it is the GDP data for the third quarter. That is, there isn't a day without news. But most importantly, the market will wait with bated breath for what Prime Minister Boris Johnson will say and do regarding the launch of the Brexit process. Recall that he still has until January 31, 2020 to ratify the agreement with the European Union in Parliament.
In the meantime, the experts' forecast for the pound looks about the same as for the Euro. Most of them (65%), supported by 90% of indicators on D1, believe that the pair will once again rush to storm the height of 1.3500, which it reached on the night of Thursday 12 December to Friday the 13th. However, it is only 25% believe in the success of such a storm. The remaining 75% of analysts, supported by graphical analysis, believe that we will soon see the GBP/USD pair in the 1.3100-1.3200 zone once again. And, in fact, why not? What good is awaiting the UK after leaving the EU? That's the question;

- USD/JPY. 75% of analysts believe that the progress in the US-China trade talks will continue to push the pair up. Additional support will be provided by the growth of the yield spread of 10-year US and Japanese government bonds on the debt market. 85% of oscillators, 95% of trend indicators and graphical analysis on D1 agree with this forecast. The nearest resistance is 109.70, the goal is to consolidate in the zone 110.00-111.00.
The remaining 25% of experts believe that the pair will not be able to go beyond the side corridor 108.40-109.70, where it will continue to move at least until the end of the year. A possible reversal of the trend and the return of the pair to the support of 108.40 is also indicated by 15% of oscillators that give clear signals about the pair being overbought. The next support is 108.25;

– cryptocurrencies. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is still in its lower third and is even down a quarter from the previous week, dropping to the 22 mark. In general, the current situation can be called stagnation. But the crypto market is famous for the fact that after a long lull, a sharp rise follows. Or a fall. After all, most traders come here to earn on the super-volatility of cryptocurrencies.
It does not matter for speculators whether the market is bullish or bearish at the moment. Thus, despite the price decline, the Bitcoin network has continued to expand recently and has now reached a record 28.4 million addresses. This is evidenced by the CoinMetrics data service. A similar dynamic was observed at the end of last year, when Bitcoin was trading at $3,200. At that time, many investors, taking advantage of the fall of the crypto currency, began to actively buy it.
According to the service glassnode, the number of wallets with a thousand or more bitcoins soared to a new high, their owners hope to make a profit, primarily as a result of the halving, which is scheduled for May 2020.
According to Morgan Creek Digital co-founder Anthony Pompliano, this event can multiply the price of Bitcoin, but its growth will be gradual. "I do not think that the price will soar the day after the halving, but I believe that, starting from the current values, it will rise to $100,000 by December 2021," the entrepreneur predicted.
Recall that as a result of the halving, the size of the reward in the bitcoin network will decrease twice, from 12.5 to 6.25 coins per block. But all this will happen in five months. If we talk about the forecast for the near future, 65% of experts expect the BTC/USD pair to decline to the $6,500-6,800 zone. According to the remaining 35% of experts, the pair will attempt to rise above the level of $8,000



Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/

[Stan NordFX]

New Year's Eve Stocks-Surprise Gift from NordFX

December is the month of summing up the results of the year. But before doing so, NordFX decides to give its clients a New Year's surprise gift by expanding the range of trading instruments and introducing a new Stocks account designed for CFD trading with the shares of the world's largest companies.

At the moment, stocks of 68 companies, including IBM, JP Morgan Chase, Coca-Cola, Mastercard, McDonalds, Microsoft, Volkswagen, UBER, eBay, Alibaba, Deutsche Bank and many others, are offered for trading to traders and investors.

Trading is conducted on the well-known MetaTrader-4 platform. You can open both short and long positions on CFD contracts with a leverage of 1: 5. The total commission for a round-turn transaction is only 0.2%. It should be borne in mind that a long position held at dividend date receives the dividend amount, while a short position pays the dividend amount.

You can learn more about the trading instruments specifications, as well as open  a Stocks account, at the NordFX website  following the link http://nordfx.com/trading_account_stocks.html or through the Trader's Cabinet.


#stocks #trading #cfd #investor #trader #nordfx

https://nordfx.com/

[Stan NordFX]

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for December 23 - 31, 2019

 
First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. Starting on Monday from the level of 1.1110, the pair went up, as expected by most experts. The market did not react to the initiated impeachment of the US President Trump, and the S&P500 Index once again updated the historical maximum. However, the end of the year is the end of the year and the associated fall in volatility. Therefore, the pair failed to reach the target, the height of 1.1200, and recorded the maximum of the week at 1.1175.
Then everything happened again according to the scenario described by us in the previous forecast: the pair turned around and went south, braking at 1.1110. This was followed by several unsuccessful attempts to break through this support, then on Thursday 19 December there was a rebound up on the background of the weak economic statistics from the US, and then again, a return to the 1.1110 zone.
It should be noted that, in addition to the horizontal support, this level coincided with the lower limit of the uptrend, which began on November 29, which is why the bulls stood up for it so fiercely. But their strength was exhausted at the very end of the week, and the support was broken. According to experts, this was facilitated by the decline in quotations for a number of cross-pairs, the release of positive statistics on the US consumer market, as well as the narrowing of the yield spread on US and German government bonds. In addition, at the time of the breakdown, many stop orders placed on long positions worked, which allowed the pair to fall to the level of 1.1065. This was followed by a slight rebound, and it ended the week at 1.1075;
 
- GBP/USD. Last week was not the most successful for the British currency. The negative dynamics in the debt market, where the yield of UK securities fell in comparison with the bonds of the US and Germany, weighed on the pound. Statistics on the consumer market also disappointed investors: retail sales fell in November at the highest pace for the whole year, by 0.6%. Whatever Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his supporters say, British consumers fear Brexit and therefore limit themselves in spending. The Bank of England contributed to the overall gloomy picture as well by lowering its economic growth forecast.
As a result, the pound moved according to the scenario developed for it by experts for the whole week. Recall that the majority of analysts (65%), supported by 90% of indicators on D1, expected that the GBP/USD pair will once again rush to storm the height of 1.3500, and that this storm will end in collapse. Indeed, on Monday, December 16, the pound went up, but was able to overcome only 85 points, then turned around and continued the fall, which had begun on Friday, December 13.
75% of analysts, supported by graphical analysis, voted for this development. According to their forecast, the pair should have reached the 1.3100-1.3200 zone very quickly, which happened on Tuesday. But the fall did not end there, and it was only on Friday 20 December, thanks to positive GDP data for the third quarter (growth of 0.4% instead of the forecast 0.3%), that the pound was able to find support at the level of 1.2990.
This was followed by a rebound up to 1.3080, supported by the adoption of the Brexit Act by the UK Parliament, and again a drop of 100 points. The final chord sounded at the level of 1.3000;

- USD/JPY. The news background on the yen is quite diverse. There is a strong rise in the US Treasury yields, with which the Japanese currency is strongly correlated, and the continuation of the oil uptrend, and hopes for the imminent completion of a comprehensive deal between Washington and Beijing. It is necessary to pay attention to the inflation figures in Japan. At the end of November, it was at the level of 0.5%, that is, it grew by 0.3%, which is, though not powerful, but still a favorable signal for the Bank of Japan and the economy as a whole.  The yen reacts as the weathervane to the multidirectional statistics on the state of the American economy as well.
As a result, the most accurate forecast was the one supported by a quarter of analysts, according to which the pair will remain in the side channel 108.40-109.70 until the end of the year. In reality, the channel was even narrower: 109.15-109.70, and the pair ended the trading session in its central zone, at the level of 109.45;

– cryptocurrencies. On Saturday, December 14, the benchmark cryptocurrency went south. More precisely, it did not just go, but flew headlong, updating the six-month low by Wednesday and "losing weight" by more than 11%. According to the main version, voiced by Bloomberg analysts, the fall was caused by the sale by crypto-pyramid PlusToken of bitcoins worth about $2 billion, followed by other coins. The total capitalization of the crypto market decreased by 9% in just 5 days, and some analysts rushed to put a "death cross" on Bitcoin, giving such a name to the intersection by the 50-day moving average from top to bottom of the 200-day MA).
However, rumors about the death of Bitcoin, as it has repeatedly happened, were greatly exaggerated. On Wednesday evening, it became known that the Bakkt platform demonstrates record volumes of trading in BTC futures. And having found support at the level of $6,470, Bitcoin quickly began to make up for losses, just in a few hours getting $1000 (+15%). After that, the BTC/USD pair returned to where it all started, to the values of December 14.
As for such top altcoins as Ripple (XRP/USD), Ethereum (ETH/USD) and Litecoin (LTC/USD), in general, they followed in the wake of the reference cryptocurrency. It is just that the results of the seven-day trip were unprofitable for them. If Bitcoin fully recovered its losses, Ripple lost 12.5% of its value, Ethereum lost 11.5%, and Litecoin lost 10%. This result suggests that investors are getting rid of altcoins, redirecting financial flows towards the first cryptocurrency.


As for the forecast for the coming 10 days, perhaps we will not make a discovery, saying that Christmas and New Year holidays are ahead. In this regard:

- December 24 - Forex trading closes at 17: 00 CET
- December 25 - trading is closed
- December 26 - trading opens at 00: 00 CET
- December 31- trading closes at 17: 00 CET
- 01 January - trading is closed
- 02 January - trading opens at 00: 00 CET

- EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY. With a high probability we expect quite sluggish trading in a narrow range throughout this time. Although, due to the subtlety of the market, emissions in one direction or another are not excluded. Gaps can be expected at the opening of markets after the New Year holidays.
If we talk about the forecasts of experts for the upcoming ten-day period, it is impossible to give preference to either bulls or bears, because the opinions of experts are divided:
- either in half: 50% for the growth and 50% for the fall,
- or equally in three parts: a third for the growth, a third for the decline and a third for a sideways trend.
The forecasts of analytical departments of global banks for the entire year 2020 are much more interesting, we will publish them exactly one week later. Naturally, they are based on fundamental factors. And  as for the fans of technical analysis, we have gathered together in one table the indicator readings on the daily (D1) and weekly (W1) timeframes, which, we hope, will help you form an opinion about the main trends and market sentiment.

– cryptocurrencies. Unlike Forex, the crypto market never sleeps. And even if crypto traders celebrate holidays, they do not take their eyes off the trading terminal.
In general, the news background is positive:
- Banking giant Bank of America Merrill Lynch has named the best and the worst assets by investment performance over the past ten years. According to the bank's calculations, $1 invested in the first cryptocurrency in 2010 has now turned into $90,026.
Sweden's Central Bank Riksbank is exploring the possibility of creating a digital Swedish Krona.
The success of Bakkt was mentioned above. And this is a very positive signal for the crypto market, as it suggests that institutional investors (at least some of them), consider the current situation a good one to buy.
- Analysts have given their forecasts of the Bitcoin price for the beginning of 2020. Executives of South Korean cryptocurrency exchanges Bithumb, Korbit and Hanbitco argue that 2020 will be the best year for the crypto market due to demand for cryptocurrencies from institutional investors and people of generation Y (Millennials).
Amsterdam stock exchange analyst Michael van de Poppe is confident that the coin will rise to $8000 in early 2020, and a month after that it will rise to $9500. Alistair Milne, Investment Director of the Altana DS Fund, is also confident in the growth of the Bitcoin value. In his opinion, the coin will become more expensive in the run-up to the halving. In parallel, the sale of altcoins in favor of the main cryptocurrency will continue.
Another point of view is held by the founder of Signal Profits Jacob Kenfield, who predicts a decline in the rate of Bitcoin to $5500. But the worst news for today is that more than 20 thousand BTC tokens remain on the accounts of the PlusToken cryptopyramid. And if it continues to sell, according to Bloomberg forecasts, there is a risk of a fall in the price of Bitcoin down to $4000. However, this is not the limit. Calculations for ASIC miners have shown that Bitmain's S17 is a device in which mining will become unprofitable only if the price of Bitcoin falls below $3600. This means that it is at this level that the main support is situated.
For now, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index is still in its lower third, at 29, which corresponds to the moderate fear of investors.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/

[Stan NordFX]

Forecast: Dollar, Euro And Other Currencies In 2020

What to expect from major currency pairs in the New year.

There is no doubt that the vast majority of brokerage companies and private traders consider the EUR/USD pair as one of the main tools for their work. Different sources say that this pair holds from 22% to 32% of the Forex market. It is followed by USD/JPY, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, EUR/JPY and EUR/GBP.

All these currencies, primarily the dollar and the euro, are more or less correlated with the main macroeconomic indicators and political events, which is a disadvantage from the point of view of  technical analysis fans and, conversely, an advantage according to the apologists of fundamental analysis. In the first case, just one Twitter post by the US President breaks through the most powerful support/resistance zones, reverses channels and trends, drives indicators crazy and turns Elliott waves into small splashes. In the second case, macroeconomic statistics allow, without breaking heads over graphical figures and candlestick analysis, to give fairly accurate long-term forecasts. For example, forecasts for the next 12 months.

So, what, according to experts, awaits us in the coming year?

Analysts at Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, Bank of New York Mellon and a number of other banks reach consensus, predicting a fall in the US dollar in 2020. The main reason for this will be a slowdown in global economic growth, which will increase the demand for riskier assets. Especially so since the US Federal Reserve, on the eve of the presidential election, under pressure from Donald Trump, is likely to continue to reduce interest rates, or at least keep them at the existing level.

Financial Times writes that, according to Citigroup experts, the policy of quantitative easing (QE), conducted by the Federal Reserve, and pumping the market with cheap dollar liquidity can become a catalyst for the dollar depreciation. Analysts of the Swiss Bank Lombard Odier, as well as one of the world largest investment companies, BlackRock, who expect a moderate decline in the dollar in the next six months, agree with their colleagues from Citigroup.

JPMorgan Chase experts predict the level of 1.14 for the EUR/USD pair at the end of 2020. Goldman Sachs and Bank of America Merrill Lynch call 1.15. And German Deutsche Bank and French Societe Generale forecasts for the dollar are even more gloomy: they believe that the euro will trade at $1.20 in a year.

According to Bloomberg, the consensus forecast of the largest market operators suggests that by the end of 2020, the US dollar will "lose weight" by another 400-500 points, and the EUR/USD pair will rise to the 1.16 zone.

Conspiracy theorists, of course, suspect market manipulation and talk about the fact that bankers want to buy dollar liquidity at the lowest prices, for which they spread "bearish" forecasts.  And here it is appropriate to recall the words of Andreas Koenig, head of Global FX in the multinational investment company Amundi Asset Management, that he had heard many times before about the fall of the dollar against the euro, and every time the opposite happened. "I would be very surprised if this consensus came to fruition," he said.

"It is true that the Fed's interest rate of 1.75% is small," says John Gordon, a leading analyst at brokerage NordFX, "but other regulators have zero or negative interest rates at all. Despite rate cuts, trade wars and other problems, the dollar has risen against the euro by more than 10% since February 2018. And if you look back at the past year results, it is clear that for many investors, due to the weakness of the European economy and the problems with Brexit, the dollar has become a safe haven currency. And for Central Banks, it remains the main reserve currency, far ahead of any other assets."

As for other currencies, Goldman Sachs predicts that the exchange rate of the British pound to the dollar by the end of 2020 will reach 1.37.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch also believes that not only the euro, but, first of all, the pound should benefit from resolving the uncertainty with Brexit, resulting in the GBP/USD pair rising to the horizon of 1.39. The falling dollar will also support emerging markets, strengthening the currencies of the countries belonging to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), and the quotes of the USD/JPY pair will fall to 103 yen per dollar.

The Canadian and New Zealand dollars will continue to attract interest, and the price of gold will go up.

Leap year 2020 is 12 months, 366 days, and during these days a lot can happen that can disprove any forecasts. The dollar will depend on the domestic situation in the United States, and on what is happening in global markets, not only in America, but also in Europe and Asia. "I think a full-scale USA deal with China will change the rules of the game... It will change everything!"- predicts David Bloom, global FX strategist at HSBC.

Will it change anything? It is not long that is left to find out the answer to this question. In the meantime:
Patience, good luck and fulfillment of the most cherished wishes to you!

Happy New Year, 2020!


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only.  Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #Forex #forexbrokers #signaltek #cryptocurrency #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/

[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for January 06 - 10, 2020

 
First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. Holidays are for people to get distracted for a while from daily problems, plunging into the magic atmosphere of miracle expectation. And miracles happen, and financial markets are no exception, as we have already warned our readers.
In normal times, investors look either towards the riskier stock market, or seek to hide their capital in safe havens, preferring government bonds, gold and safe-haven currencies. But Christmas and New Year are unusual times, and the market is so thin these days that it can be managed even on small volumes. As a result, in the last decade of December, both the S&P500 stock index continues to update historical highs, and gold, along with the yen and the franc, show an impressive growth. And treasury debt obligations are not going to retreat from the won positions. New Year's miracles, that is! But, as you know, there are much less holidays in the year than working days. And the market returns to its normal state this week.
As for EUR/USD, starting from November 29, the pair is slowly moving along the ascending channel. On December 31, it reached its upper limit at 1.1240, and then changed direction, opening the year, 2020, with a gap down. The pair almost got to the bottom of the channel on Friday afternoon January 03, and then the pair returned to the central zone of the channel on a fairly dismal statistics on business activity in the USA (index ISM in manufacturing sector was below expectations and failed to rise above $50) and ended the week in the area of strong support/resistance 1.1160;

- GBP/USD. The week's result of the British pound was close to zero. Starting at 1.3085, it ended the five-day period at 1.3075, losing just 10 points. However, due to its relatively high volatility, it did not deprive traders of the opportunity to profit: its range of fluctuations over these days amounted to more than 230 points;

- USD/JPY. In contrast to the pound, which ended the five-day period with almost zero results, safe-haven currencies are growing rapidly against the dollar. Thus, the yen gained almost 135 points against the "American": starting from the horizon of 109.45, it finished at 108.10;

– cryptocurrencies. The digital asset market, as well as the Forex market, continues to sum up the results of the past year. For example, the online portal ForkLog has compiled a list of the most prominent and influential crypto persons in 2019. The top 10 is headed by the head of the Bitcoin exchange Binance Changpeng Zhao, in the middle of the list is the head of Facebook Mark Zuckerberg and the Telegram creator Pavel Durov, and the top ten is completed by Chinese President Xi Jinping and Ethereum developer Vitalik Buterin.
Bitcoin, despite all the rate hikes, rose by 110% in 12 months, the S&P500 index rose by 22.8%, and gold added 19% over the same period. The result for the reference cryptocurrency, in general, is quite good, but only for those investors who invested in the coin at the beginning of the year, and not in the mid summer. For the latter, a completely different, sad melody sounds.
Now let's move on to the results of the last week. And here there is nothing to talk about: the same side trend. The pair BTC/USD grows to $7,550 on Dec 29, then drops to $6,900 by 03 January, and then returns to where it started the week in the area of $7,300. In general, it is a complete disappointment for investors. But as for active traders who trade on short timeframes, with a leverage of 1: 50, like with the broker NordFX, the jumps of $650 is a good opportunity to make a profit.
As for the top altcoins, things are also flat here:  there is a movement in very narrow side channels with gradual consolidation for a third week running: Ripple (XRP/USD) is around $0.19, Ethereum (ETH/USD) – $130 and Litecoin (LTC/USD) - $42 per coin. The total capitalization of the crypto market has fallen to $190 billion, and Bitcoin Crypto Fear & Greed Index is gradually approaching its neutral position (now it is at 38), which, in fact, also indicates a stagnation in the market.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Last week, we summarized the forecasts given for 2020 by analysts at JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank and a number of other global banks. Recall that, in general, they reached a consensus, predicting the fall of the dollar against the euro and the growth of the pair to levels from 1.1400 to 1.2000. The main reason was a slowdown in global economic growth, which should increase demand for riskier assets. Especially so since the US Federal Reserve, on the eve of the presidential election, under pressure from Donald Trump, is likely to continue to reduce interest rates, or at least keep them at the existing level.
However, there is also an opposite opinion, which is again tied to the US presidential election. It is noted that it is during the election years that the US currency shows particularly good results. In such periods over the past 40 years, the USD index declined only twice. But the euro fell in 9 cases out of 11. So, if you focus on these statistics, the dollar should be bought, not sold. Moreover, for Central Banks, it is still the main reserve currency, far ahead of any other assets.
As for the near future, 55% of experts, supported by 85% of indicators on D1, expect the pair to grow to the upper limit of the ascending channel at the level of 1.1240. The next target is 1.1330. The strengthening of the euro over the dollar can be also facilitated by the macroeconomic data, which we will learn next week. So, on Tuesday, January 07, the December value of the ISM business activity index in the service sector will be known, and on Friday, data on the labor market in the United States will be released. And if the number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector (NFP) decreases, according to the forecast, by 40% (from 266K to 160K), this will have a negative impact on the dollar. However, often the market reacts in advance to such predictions, so that immediately at the time of the release of statistics there may not be strong jerks.
In addition to these 55% of bull supporters, there are also 45% of experts who support bearish sentiment. 85% of the indicators on H4 and graphical analysis on the same timeframe side with them. Support levels are 1.1100, 1.1065 and 1.1000;

- GBP/USD. The situation with the pound is again confused and depends on how and what happens to the process of leaving the EU. The head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, expressed concern that there is little time left for negotiations on the UK's relations with the European Union after Brexit. In her view, the 11-month transition period for negotiations is extremely short and may have to be extended. And her Deputy Frans Timmermans called on the British to immediately return to the bosom of the European family after the divorce.   
In the meantime, 60% of experts expect the pair to grow to the upper limit of the channel 1.3050-1.3215. The goals in case of a breakout are 1.3285, 1.3425 and the December 13 high of 1.3515. Graphical analysis, 15% of trend indicators on D1 and the same number of oscillators that give signals about the pair being oversold agree with this development.
The remaining 40% of analysts and the vast majority of indicators vote for the fall of the pair. The nearest strong support is at 1.2975, the goal is to reach the 1.2825-1.2900 zone;

- USD/JPY. Supported by graphical analysis on D1, 70% of analysts believe that the fall of the pair will stop at the level of 107.80, having fought off from which, the pair will first go to the resistance of 109.25, and then to the maximum values of last December in the area of 109.70.
30% expect that the strengthening of the yen will continue, so the pair will be able to fall to the support of 107.50, and then another 100 points lower.
As for the indicators, 100% of them are colored red on H4 and 85% on D1. Signals of the pair being oversold are given by 15% of oscillators on D1, which is often confirmed by the rapid change of trend;

– cryptocurrencies. Forecasts for the near future are as gray and boring as the charts of crypto pairs. However, the closer to the May halving of Bitcoin, the more green color and optimism of experts appear. 70% of them expect that the quotes will go up sharply. The picture is similar among investors. According to TradeBlock, only 30% of BTC coins were in motion in 2019. The remaining 70% are in wallets in a "frozen" state, in the hope of a future growth.
Of course, there are pessimists among analysts. According to their forecasts, the pair BTC/USD will soon have another fall. The new generation of mining equipment (ASIC S17 and T17) makes this process cost-effective, even if Bitcoin falls to the $3500-4400 zone, and this is where they believe the really strong support is located. But if the pair breaks through it, then we can talk about the end of the 10-year history of the world's first digital currency.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/

[Stan NordFX]

NordFX Professional Prizes and Awards Reach 50

At the end of 2019, NordFX was prized with three more professional awards. Thanks to this, the company can now claim to be one of the most titled brokers in the world: the total number of honorary prizes and awards it has received since 2008 has reached 50.

According to the results of the annual voting on the website of the IAFT Awards, NordFX won the Best Broker in Asia for the second year in a row, where It beat many of its colleagues in the financial market by a large margin.
The IAFT Awards are organized By the International Association of Forex Traders, which includes more than 200,000 traders from different countries. Each of them can vote on the website of the award, which allows you to objectively evaluate the activities of a particular broker.

The trading community of the MasterForex-V Academy also expressed its trust and recognition of the company, giving NordFX the title of "Traders' Choice World Best Broker". As explained by the Chairman of the Jury and a member of the Rectorate of the Academy O. Voron, "in 2019, 52% of new real trading accounts of Masterforex-V traders and 46% at pro-rebate.com were opened with NordFX, which has once again confirmed the advantages of this broker."

The company also won in the main category of the MasterForex-V Academy, receiving the Grand Prix as the "World Best Broker" in 2019, ahead of all its competitors on 22 independent criteria for evaluating the brokers activity.
"It is a surprising fact," said Mr. Voron, " that NordF? has managed to create excellent trading conditions on all types of accounts, both for beginners and experienced traders, with a wide range of financial instruments, high quality dealing and trust-business relationships with clients."

Last year, NordFX was also named the "Best Crypto Broker" by the Fxdailyinfo portal, and  It received the "Excellent Affiliate Program" award at the Saigon Financial Education Summit, for its two-level affiliate program, which has already attracted more than 25,000 people from different countries.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #Forex #forexbrokers #signaltek #cryptocurrency #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/

[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for January 13-17, 2020

 
First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. As you know, life is like a zebra: a black stripe comes after a white one, and vice versa. That was what happened this time as well: after the merry New Year holidays came the anxious expectation of a full-fledged war between the United States and Iran. But, a few days later it became clear that both sides want to avoid a full-fledged conflict, and the tension in the geopolitical field went gradually down, which is clearly visible in the oil prices.
Last week, everything went well for the US dollar at first. The US currency was growing thanks to new record highs in the US stock market and optimistic statements of the Fed's leaders. So, the President of the Federal reserve of Richmond Thomas Barkin said that the country's economy and the labor market in the United States looked strong. And according to Fed Vice President Richard Clarida, the current monetary policy of his organization is fully consistent with the state of the country's economy. According to forecasts, US GDP growth in 2020 may be 2-2.5%, or even more.
Up until Friday, January 10, the dollar was growing in anticipation of strong data from the US labor market. As a result, as expected by 45% of experts, supported by 85% of indicators and graphical analysis on H4, the EUR/USD pair fell to the support of 1.1100, and then by another 15 points. But the data on the number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector (NFP) disappointed the market so strongly (a drop of 43%) that the pair turned sharply north, jumping to the height of 1.1130. It met the end of the trading session at the level of 1.1120;

- GBP/USD. For the third week in a row, the result for the British pound is close to zero. Starting from the horizon of 1.3075, by Tuesday January 07, it reached the height of 1.3210, then fell to the support of 1.3010, turned around again and finished the five-day period at 1.3060, losing only 15 points during this time. However, as before, due to its rather high volatility, the pair did not deprive traders of the opportunity to earn: the weekly scope of its fluctuations amounted to 200 points;

- USD/JPY. The forecast for this pair was 100% accurate. Recall that, in the opinion of the majority of analysts (70%), supported by graphical analysis on D1, the pair's drop had to stop at the level of 107.80, having rebounced from which it was supposed to go to the 109.25 resistance, and then to the last December highs in the area of 109.70.
In reality, on Monday, January 06, the pair found the bottom at 107.76, turned around and went up. On Wednesday, the yen made another attempt to gain a foothold below the level of 107.00, however, it was unsuccessful as well, and by the end of the week, the pair, as expected by experts, reached the set height of 109.70. This was followed by a small correction, and the final chord sounded at the level of 109.50;

– cryptocurrencies. Indeed, it seems that a number of investors are considering Bitcoin as a financial haven. So, against the background of the confrontation between the US and Iran, the reference cryptocurrency reached a month-and-a-half high, breaking some important resistance levels. Fake information about a sharp increase in the capitalization of stablecoin Tether (USDT) on CoinMarketCap by $500 million also contributed to the growth. As a result, the cost of BTC soared to the height of $8,450 per coin.
The analysis of what happened last week suggests that the crypto market quotes begin to be increasingly influenced by algorithmic trading. Reacting only to the momentum of the price, which in this case was up, the robots began buying coins, giving an additional force to this momentum.
Soon after it became known about the reduction of tension around Iran, and that the information about $500 million is just a fake, the price of Bitcoin went down, dropping to $7,765, then went up again, reaching the height of $8,100 by the evening of Friday, January 10.
As a result of these events, the growth of Bitcoin, starting from January 03, was at a maximum of about 17%, Ethereum (ETH/USD) – the same 17%, Ripple (XRP/USD) – 22%, and Litecoin (LTC/USD) - 27%. At the same time, the total capitalization increased by 10%, and the Bitcoin Crypto Fear & Greed Index is another three points closer to its neutral position, reaching 41.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Starting from November 29, 2019, the pair moved on an upward channel. On December 31, it reached its upper limit at 1.1240, and then changed direction, opening the year 2020 with a gap down. On January 08, it broke through the lower border of the channel at the level of 1.1125, but due to negative data on the labor market in the United States, the bears could not consolidate their success, and the pair finished the week session almost at the level of the breakdown.
Will it return to the limits of the ascending channel? 60% of experts do not think so. In their opinion, the dollar will continue to strengthen, and the pair is expected to decline to the zone of 1.1040-1.1065, the next goal is 1.1000. Graphical analysis on H4 and the majority (70%) of trend indicators on D1 agree with this development. The readings of trend indicators on H4 and oscillators on H4 and D1 can be considered neutral at the moment.
According to the forecasts of the remaining 40% of analysts, the EUR/USD pair will not be able to break through the support at the level of 1.1100, and it will return at least to the central line of the ascending channel, which will be in the zone of 1.1240.
Of course, the trends of the coming week may be affected by the escalation of tension around Iran. But no extra surprises should probably not be expected from the publication of macroeconomic indicators. On Tuesday, Thursday and Friday, data on the US consumer market will be published. On January 16, we will also learn the values of the German HICP consumer price index, which is projected to remain unchanged. The report on the ECB's monetary policy meeting may be more interesting, it will also be published on Thursday 16 January;

- GBP/USD. The UK is less than three weeks away from parting with the European Union. According to Bloomberg, to date, Brexit has already cost the country $170 billion, and by the end of 2020, London will lose another $90 billion. The annual economic growth has halved from 2% to 1%. The British economy is now 3% smaller than it could be if the relations with the EU had remained at the same level. The UK economy is lagging behind the G7 countries and, according to some economists, it has a long way to recover.
In the near future, the pound is highly likely to still move in a fairly wide side channel 1.2900-1.3200 with a Pivot Point in the zone 1.3000-1.3050. At the same time, according to 60% of analysts, supported by 85% of indicators on H4 and D1, the pair will continue to move to its lower border in the coming week. Supports are 1.3010, 1.2970 and 1.2900.
The remaining 40% of experts, in agreement with the graphical analysis on D1, believe that the pair, on the contrary, will break away from the central zone and is likely to reach the December 31, 2019 high at the height of 1.3285. According to the indications of graphical analysis, it may take about four or five days, after which it will return to the Pivot Point; 

- USD/JPY. Last week, the pair not only returned to the borders of the medium-term side channel 108.40-109.70, but also reached its upper border. Although 75% of oscillators and 85% of trend indicators are colored green, only 25% of experts believe that the pair will be able to rise to the height of 110.70. The majority of analysts (75%) side with the bears, as well as 15% of the oscillators on H4 and D1, signaling the pair is overbought. Supports are109.20, 108.75 and 108.40. Reaching the last week's lows in the 107.65-107.75 zone is unlikely;

– cryptocurrencies. We have already written that, according to TradeBlock, only 30% of BTC coins in 2019 were in motion. The remaining 70% are in wallets in a "frozen" state. Similar figures were received by Delphi Digital. According to its data, at least 59% of bitcoins purchased in the second half of 2017 have not moved anywhere. That is, their holders did not sell their cryptocurrency even in December 2017, when BTC soared to $20,000 on some trading platforms. Such data suggests that a stable layer of so-called holders has formed in the cryptosphere, who do not part with their coins even when the market is growing aggressively.
Perhaps they are waiting for 2040, when, according to the calculations of Benjamin Cowen, the price of Bitcoin can reach $1 million. According to Cowen, the history of the main cryptocurrency price shows that the market cycles are getting longer: it took 2.5 years to reach the first peak and 4 years to reach the second peak. Extrapolating the model of logarithmic regression to the price of Bitcoin, the expert suggests that it would take about 5.5 years to reach the next peak (after the peak of December 2017), and in 2023 the price of Bitcoin could reach the $100,000 mark. And the Bitcoin of $1mln cannot be earlier than 2040.
At the same time, of course, there is another opinion, according to which, under pressure from regulators, Bitcoin will go into oblivion, and it will be replaced by state and regional digital money. The ECB has started thinking about developing its own cryptocurrency, the BRICS countries are contemplating a single cryptocurrency and the Bank for International settlements has already held the first summit of G20 Central bankers, which discussed the idea of a global cryptocurrency.
But all this is a matter of the distant future. In the meantime, the highs and lows of the past week allow us to say that the BTC/USD pair has moved to a new level of $7,765-8,450 with a Pivot Point in the $8,000-8,100 zone. At the same time, only 30% of analysts believe that it will be able to stay in this corridor, while 70% expect it to fall to the $7,000-7,500 zone.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/

[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for January 20 - 24, 2020

 
First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. Starting from November 29, 2019, the pair moved along the ascending channel. On December 31, it reached the upper limit of the channel at 1.1240, and then changed direction and on January 08, it broke through the lower limit of the channel at 1.1225. "Will it return to its limits?"– we asked this question last week, to which the majority of experts (60%) answered with a firm "no". And they turned out to be right: Until Thursday, January 16, the bulls tried to do this, but then their strength weakened, and the pair went down sharply.
Even the signing of the "first phase" trade agreement between the US and China did not help the bulls. According to this document, Beijing agreed to increase purchases of American goods and services by about $200 billion in the next two years, and Washington, for its part, promised to lower the duty on Chinese imports worth $120 billion to 7.5% and not introduce new fees.
It should be noted that, in general, this event had already been taken into account by the markets, but still caused a further increase in the US stock indexes and a slight decline in the dollar. Investors continued to reform assets, preferring shares rather than money.
However, the fall of the dollar and the EUR/USD pair was soon stopped due to the publication of the December ECB meeting minutes and the retail sales data in the United States.
In the first case, the management of the European mega-regulator announced that it is not going to raise the key interest rate until the inflation approaches the 2% mark. Moreover, the ECB did not rule out the possibility of moving the rate from the current zero level to the negative zone. As for the second factor, the retail trade volume in the United States increased from -0.1% to + 0.5%, and, as you know, consumer spending accounts for more than 65% of the US GDP. As a result, the euro began to lose its positions against the dollar, and the pair ended the trading session in the zone of a strong support/resistance level of 1.1100, at the level of 1.1090;

 - GBP/USD. This pair showed similar dynamics to the EUR/USD, but, as usual, with a much larger scale. So, if the difference between the week low and high for the EUR/USD was just over 85 points, this value was twice as high for the British currency.
The active sale of the pound on January 17 was caused by the report on the UK retail sales for December. The monthly indicator was in the negative area, and the annual indicator was three times less than the forecast value. As a result, at the end of the week, the pound fell to the January 09 low, and ended the five-day period at 1.3015 - exactly where, according to most experts, the medium-term Pivot Point (1.3000-1.3050) of this pair is located;

- USD/JPY. 25% of experts, supported by 75% of oscillators and 85% of trend indicators, voted for the pair to rise to the level of 110.70. It did go up, but the pair's growth was stopped at 110.30. Despite the fact that the yen lost only about 80 points to the dollar during the week, this can be considered a significant event, since it overcame the psychologically important level of 110.00. Recall that after passing the mark of 29.000, the Dow Jones index confidently went up, and it is possible that the same thing will happen with the USD/JPY pair;

– cryptocurrencies. Every Wednesday, analysts of NordFX brokerage company publish weekly reviews of the cryptocurrency market on NordFX's Facebook page, Twitter channel, and other social networks. In another such review on Wednesday, January 15, it was suggested that the cost of BTC in February has all the chances to rise to the level of 9,5 thousand dollars. Increased correlation with gold as well as various external factors will allow the main coin to add at least $1000 per month. Among these factors, first of all, the use of bitcoin as a safe haven asset should be noted. A clear proof of this phenomenon was the growth of the main cryptocurrency against the background of escalating tensions around Iran.
On Tuesday last week, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange announced the successful launch of a new financial instrument, the option for Bitcoin, which allowed the BTC/USD quotes to reach a landmark level of $9,000 on Friday, January 17. Thus, the pair's growth over the past two weeks has exceeded 22%.
Altcoins also soared in the wake of the main cryptocurrency. Ripple (XRP/USD) showed an increase of 25%, Ethereum (ETH/USD) – 30%, and the most impressive was the strengthening of Litecoin (LTC/USD): its growth was about 50%. The total capitalization of the crypto market increased by 14.5% and reached $245 billion.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. For three weeks in a row, the pair is moving down, the euro has fallen by about 240 points. The vast majority of indicators are now red not only on H4, but also on D1. Among the oscillators on H4 there are 75% of them, on D1 – 65%, among the trend indicators 100% on H4 and 90% on D1 point to the south. The nearest support is 1.1065, the bears' target is 1.1000.
At the same time, some of the oscillators already give active signals about the pair being oversold. 60% of experts also look up. In their opinion, the pair will try once again to return to the limits of the medium-term ascending channel, which started in early December 2019. The nearest resistance is 1.1150. The targets are 1.1200 and 1.1240; The pair's growth may be helped by the outflow of capital to the stock market, provoked by the decline in tensions in trade relations between the US and China. This reduced the probability of a recession in the United States to 24%, which is the lowest rate in the last eight months.
Monday, January 20, is a day off in the United States, but it is at this time that the People's Bank of China will announce its decision on the interest rate, which is currently 4.15%. In addition, other events are of interest. On Tuesday, January 21, the German business sentiment Index will be published. According to forecasts, it may fall from 10.7 to 4.3 units, which may lead to some weakening of the European currency. On Thursday, the ECB's decision on the interest rate will be announced, and a press conference of the European regulator's management will also be held. And on Friday, January 24, we are waiting for a whole series of publications of estimated indicators of business activity both in Germany and in the Eurozone as a whole;

- GBP/USD. Two macro indicators will help to assess the state of the UK economy, such as the ILO unemployment rate, which will be released on Tuesday, and the Markit business activity index, being published on Friday 24 January. However, in the run-up to the upcoming Brexit, they are unlikely to have a serious impact on the formation of trends for this pair.
The pair finished the previous week in the mid-term Pivot Point zone 1.3000-1.3050. At the time of writing the forecast, just as in the case of the euro, 60% of experts expect the pair to grow, 40% – to fall. Indicators, especially oscillators, look very versatile. Graphical analysis on D1 indicates first the pair's growth to the level of 1.3120, and then a fall to the horizon of 1.2770.
Support levels are 1.2955, 1.2900, 1.2825 and 1.2770. Resistance levels are 1.3120, 1.3210 and 1.3285;       

- USD/JPY. Here, everything points to a slight advantage of the bulls, who will try to keep the pair above the 110.00 mark and move it as high as possible from this border. Thus, 55% of analysts, 70% of oscillators, 95% of trend indicators, as well as graphical analysis on H4 and D1 indicate a gradual growth of the pair. The nearest strong resistance level is 110.75, and the next one is 100 points higher.
15% of experts have given a neutral forecast, and 30% have voted for the fall of the pair. The largest number of signals about the pair being overbought have been given by oscillators on D1. The main support level is 109.70. If it breaks, the pair may fall to the zone of 109.00, and then to the horizon of 108.40. Reaching the January 06-08 lows in the 107.65-107.75 zone is still unlikely;

– cryptocurrencies. Finally, it happened: The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has crossed the equator and risen to 54, approaching the zone called "Greed". Is it good or bad? According to the index developers, it can be dangerous to open short positions at this moment. And what about the long ones?
65% of analysts believe that the upward momentum of the BTC/USD pair has not yet been exhausted and it is able to gain a foothold in the $9,000-10,000 zone.
An alternative point of view is supported by 35% of experts. Agreeing that the situation is somewhat similar to 2017, they draw attention to the fact that, starting from June 2019, we are seeing a series of decreasing highs: $13,765 on June 26, $13,170 on July 10, $12,320 on August 06, $10,480 on October 26. And it is possible that $9,000 will be the next local high, followed by another collapse.
But for now, the market is full of optimism, and the predictions of all sorts of crypto enthusiasts are breaking all thinkable and unthinkable records. The most modest is the forecast of the analytical firm Fundstrat Global Advisors, which has stated that in the coming year, Bitcoin is highly likely to bring investors more than 100% of profits. According to the Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee, the most important factors that will contribute to the growth of the price of the first cryptocurrency are halving, geopolitical risks and the US presidential election.
The most "space" forecast was given by Blockstream CEO Adam Back. He is convinced that the dreams of Bitcoin worth $100 thousand and even $10 million are not so far from reality. Back has commented on the idea of one of the leading representatives of the cypherpunk movement, Hal Finney, who is historically considered the second developer of Bitcoin, after Satoshi Nakamoto. Finney suggested "as a thinking experiment" to imagine that Bitcoin has become the dominant payment system in the world. "The total value of the currency should be equal to the total value of all the world's wealth. Current estimates of household assets around the world that I have found range from $100 to $ 300 trillion. If there are 20 million coins, the value of each of them will be about $10 million, " Finney wrote. Beck noted that due to the rising dollar inflation, " this is closer than it seems." But the crypto prophet did not specify how much closer.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/

[Stan NordFX]

Copy Trading: One More NordFX Service for Profitable Trading and Investing

The broker company NordFX has offered its clients one more opportunity for profitable trading and investment in the financial markets in 2020: Copy Trading service.

Copy Trading is a simple and clear type of social trading in which transactions from the signal provider's account are automatically copied to the subscriber's account. This service allows experienced traders to make additional profit by selling their trading signals, and for beginners - by copying them. It is also suitable for those who are interested in passive investment in financial markets, since it does not require any independent trading experience or any serious time costs. 

You can select a signal provider using full statistical information and online monitoring data for more than 30 parameters. At the same time, the obvious advantage of Copy Trading is that subscribers have full control over their accounts. At any time, the subscriber can close one or more copied trades, stop subscribing to signals, and simultaneously conduct independent trading on this account. In addition, the subscriber can adjust the copied transactions in accordance with the available funds and the desired risk/return ratio.

The advantage is also the fact that the subscriber pays the provider a fee only for profitable transactions and only for the total profit for the entire copying period.

The new service allows you to make and copy trades using the entire range of trading tools available in NordFX on a standard Pro account, including Forex currency pairs, cryptocurrencies, gold, silver, oil, and major stock indices.

Transactions are copied even when the terminal is turned off, and the subscriber does not need to keep the computer turned on 24 hours a day or spend money on renting a VPS server.

You can learn more about the work of the Copy Trading service, become a subscriber or a signal provider through your personal account on the broker's official website.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #forex #forexbrokers #copytrading #cryptocurrency #bitcoin #signaltek

https://nordfx.com/

[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for January 27 - 31, 2020

 
First, a review of last week’s events:
  
- EUR/USD. The euro is falling again, and it has lost about 70 points to the dollar over the past five days. There are two reasons for this: the coronavirus epidemic in China and the very cautious new ECB Head Christine Lagarde.
It is well known that the Eurozone economy is strongly correlated with the Chinese economy, as has recently been demonstrated by the trade wars. And if the economy of China is sick, then the European one is also experiencing a strong malaise. In 2003, a pandemic in China killed more than 700 people and caused retail sales to fall by almost half. But despite the fact that the new virus is considered less dangerous, it can now spread much faster than at the beginning of the century. The reason for this is the infrastructure of China, which has become much more developed during this time. Oil prices were the first to react to the new attack, but the foreign exchange market was not long in reacting.
As for Ms. Lagarde, she really disappointed investors, saying that the revision of the ECB's strategy is a long process that will only be completed by the end of 2020. Moreover, against the background of the US President Trump's warnings about the possible introduction of increased duties on European exports, Ms. Lagarde considered that "the risks for the euro zone are still skewed towards the decline of the economy." And so the European regulator will have to maintain an ultra-soft approach to its monetary policy.
Against the background of such statements by the head of the ECB and the Chinese epidemic, even favorable data on business activity in Germany (PMI) did not help the euro, and the EUR/USD pair fell to the level of 1.1020 by the end of the week. Last week, 40% of experts and the absolute majority of indicators warned that it would attack the 1.1000 level. Among the oscillators on H4 there are 75% of them, on D1 – 65%, among the trend indicators, 100% on H4 and 90% on D1 point to the south.

 - GBP/USD. Thanks to the growth of business activity (PMI) on Friday, January 24, the British currency reached a two-week high at 1.3172, but then went down again. Expectations of an interest rate cut at the Bank of England meeting on January 30, as well as the same notorious Chinese coronavirus, contributed to the fall.
The dynamics of the movement of the GBP/USD pair was most accurately predicted last week by graphical analysis. As for the final chord, the pair ended the trading session at 1.3080, slightly correcting the mid-term Pivot Point zone in the upward direction - to the range of 1.3050-1.3085;

- USD/JPY. According to some experts, the extremely low volatility of the EUR/USD pair indicates that a certain balance has been established between these two major currencies. And now the euro and the dollar are in the balance on the one hand, and emerging market currencies and stocks on the other. And these markets, especially those of neighboring countries, may be particularly affected by the crisis caused by the spread of the Chinese coronavirus.
As it turned out, the yen gained the most from such anxious but vague expectations, being a safe haven that can shelter investors' capital from unpredictable financial storms. A third of the experts who voted for the fall of the pair, and even more so the oscillators that gave signals about its overbought, could not know about the coronavirus pandemic, but, nevertheless, gave the correct forecast. The pair quickly turned the support of 109.65-109.70 into resistance, and then found a local bottom at the level of 109.17. As for the end of the trading session, it finished it very close, at the level of 109.27;

– cryptocurrencies. If someone dreamed of cryptocurrencies as an independent and free from state control financial system, they could forget about it. Just one example. The Minister of Finance of Ukraine announced that the state financial monitoring service will investigate where the citizens of this country got the cryptocurrency from. According to the Minister, the tools available to this organization allow them to determine both the origin of digital assets and what they were spent on. Moreover, this service has the authority to block cryptocurrencies and seize assets illegally obtained by Ukrainian citizens.
It is clear that this news did not contribute to the fall of Bitcoin, but the fact remains that the reference cryptocurrency could not gain a foothold above $9,000 and on Friday, January 24, it fell to the $8,250-8,450 zone.
According to some experts, what is to blame for this fall... is the Chinese New Year. Comparing the results of trading in this period over the past few years, they noted that the risk of a drawdown of the main coin is present even against the background of the overall growth dynamics. According to their calculations, in Asia, about 10 percent of residents have savings in cryptocurrency. And before the New Year, they start cashing in assets and spending money on gifts and holiday parties.
Altcoins: Ethereum (ETH/USD), Litecoin (LTC/USD) and Ripple (XRP/USD), as usual, followed in the wake of the main cryptocurrency. The total capitalization of the crypto market decreased from $251 to $236 billion.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. As already mentioned, for the ECB, a weak euro is now preferable to a strong one. Realizing this, the bulls do not want to take risks, which makes the European currency even weaker. Its nearest target in the downtrend is 1.1000, followed by 1.0960. This is followed by the low of October 01, 2019 -1.0880. 55% of analysts now vote for the fall, supported by 85% of oscillators and 100% of trend indicators not only on H4 and D1, but also on W1.
The opposite view is expressed by 45% of experts and 15% of oscillators in the oversold zone. Moreover, when switching from a weekly forecast to a monthly one, the number of bull supporters increases to 70%. The immediate task is to overcome the strong resistance in the 1.1065 zone, followed by the 1.1100 and 1.1175 resistances.
As for the Fed's decision on the interest rate on January 29, it is likely that it will remain at the same level – 1.75%, and this meeting will not have much impact on the dynamics of the pair;

- GBP/USD. Done! Here it is, the X day, Friday 31 January, which will be followed by the UK's farewell to the European Union. Brexit, which everyone has been talking about for so long, can be considered accomplished. However, we think that at the moment this event will put more moral pressure on the market – the relatively smooth process of the country's exit from the EU significantly reduces investment risks. Moreover, the current low rate of the pound helps the British economy in many ways, strengthening its competitiveness in foreign markets.
If there are no unexpected unpleasant surprises from Brexit, the pound may feel relatively calm. And it is not excluded that it will grow not only against the euro, but also against the dollar. So, 65% of experts expect it to move north - first to the resistance of 1.3160, and then to the height of 1.3200.
An alternative forecast is given by 35% of experts, according to whom the GBP/USD pair is expected to fall further. This scenario is especially likely if the Bank of England meeting on Thursday, January 30, gives at least a hint of a possible interest rate cut. In this case, the British currency has every chance to continue its journey to the south, in which, after breaking through the supports of 1.3040, 1.3000 and 1.2960, it can reach the lows of last December in the 1.2900 zone. Graphic analysis on D1 actively supports this development;

- USD/JPY. There is some confusion among the indicators, but 10% of the oscillators are already giving clear signals that this pair is oversold. 60% of analysts supported by graphical analysis on D1 believe that it will stop falling as well. The goal is to rise to the zone 110.20-110.30. The next resistance is at 110.80;
The remaining 40% of experts side with the bears, who believe that the downward trend of the past week will continue. The Dow Jones index is aiming for 30.000, and the USD/JPY pair should break through the 109 mark, which will lead to further losses for all cross-pairs related to the Japanese currency. The main support is at 108.40, the next one is 60 points lower;

– cryptocurrencies. Along with the fall of the main cryptocurrency, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index also fell slightly down, from 54 to 40. This is not yet a fear of the market, but investors are no longer particularly attracted to opening long positions.
Even some of the crypto prophets have tempered their appetites. In a recent tweet, trader and crypto analyst Josh Rager expressed the opinion that, as in other markets, Bitcoin has a "law of decreasing the rate of return", and there is a decrease in its profitability in each cycle. "The next Bitcoin maximum will not be as high as most people think. Some point to $100,000, $300,000, and $1 million. One should also take into account the decrease in the profit margin by about 20% in each cycle. Therefore, I think the next high will be in the range of $75,000 to $85,000," the analyst wrote. Rager's position on this issue was also supported by the cryptocurrency analytical company ByteTree.
If we talk about forecasts for the near future, they are not so optimistic. 50% of experts expect the BTC/USD pair to fall to the $7,500-8,000 zone, 30% voted for a sideways trend and only 20%¬ - for the pair to rise above the $9,000 horizon. However, when switching to the monthly forecast, the number of crypto optimists increases to 70%.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/

[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for February 03 - 07, 2020

 
First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. The past week passed under the sign of the coronavirus, which determined the lion's share of what was happening in the markets. Commodities and currencies that are most clearly linked to China have suffered the most.
As you know, the euro zone economy is closely correlated with the Chinese economy, and this played into the hands of the dollar in the first half of the week. As expected by the majority (55%) of experts, supported by 85% of oscillators and 100% of trend indicators not only on H4 and D1, but also on W1, the EUR/USD pair went down and reached the 1.1000 support on Wednesday, January 29.
After reaching the local bottom at 1.0992, it turned around and headed back north.
This move could have stopped the WHO (World Health Organization) statement, but its officials did everything possible to avoid causing panic in the markets and finally undermining economic activity. On the one hand, the WHO declared the coronavirus epidemic an emergency of international significance, but on the other, it asked people to behave as usual.
As a result, the European currency continued its growth, even despite the release of weak macroeconomic data from the eurozone. The pair was supported not only by US GDP data, but also by the Bank of England's decision to keep the interest rate (more on this later). Throughout 2019, the pound and the euro supported each other in the fight against the dollar, so the growth of the British currency could not help but push up its European "counterpart". The elimination of short positions on the eve of the weekend also contributed to the growth of the EUR/USD pair on Friday. As a result, by the end of the weekly session, the pair returned to the medium-term Pivot Point zone, around which it has been fluctuating since mid-July 2019 -1.1085-1.1100, confirming the hypothesis about the equilibrium state of these two currencies in the recent months;

 - GBP/USD. The Bank of England minutes of January 30: the volume of asset purchases by the Bank of England: unchanged (£435B), the interest rate: unchanged (0.75%), the number of votes cast for keeping the rate unchanged: unchanged (7), the number of votes for lowering it: unchanged (2). That is, everything is exactly as it was a month ago. And this "no change" suddenly pushes the British pound up against the dollar and against a number of other currencies, including the euro. Why?
January 31 is the official date of the UK's exit from the European Union, however, by the end of 2020, according to the agreement on the transition period, there are no serious events on this front, the country is waiting for another round of long negotiations with the EU. The coronavirus could shake up the market. Due of its outburst, the probability of an interest rate cut by the Bank of England went up. However, this did not happen. The Monetary Policy Committee considered that the improvement in the economic situation after the December elections to the UK Parliament will continue in the future and decided to leave the rate unchanged.
What happened fully justified the forecast, for which the main (65%) part of analysts voted last week. In their opinion, the GBP/USD pair should first break through the resistance of 1.3160, and then approach the height of 1.3200. This actually happened: the British currency set the final chord at the level of 1.3202;   

- USD/JPY. Many investors felt that a safe-haven currency like the yen could protect them from the onset of the coronavirus. This confidence and the reversal from risky assets to protective ones contributed to another strengthening of the Japanese currency last week. 40% of experts named the level of 108.40 as the main support for the USD/JPY pair, in the area of which it ended the working week at the mark of 108.36;

– cryptocurrencies. It should be noted that last week only 20% of experts supported the opinion that by the end of January, Bitcoin will be able to gain a foothold above the $9,000 horizon. The vast majority (70%) expected this to happen only 2-3 weeks later. However, the coronavirus did its job.
- US stocks started the week with a big sell-off. All the three main indicators went into a negative territory amid concerns about the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 400 points, the Nasdaq Composite index fell 1.8%, and the S&P 500 lost 1.4%. At the same time, Bitcoin rose, reaching the level of $9.550 USD on the night of Thursday to Friday. "Every time the regulated markets fall due to fear and apprehension, Bitcoin grows. And this reinforces the concept of the main cryptocurrency as a safe haven asset, " analyst Nathaniel Whittemore explained what is happening in an interview with BlockTV.
The growth of the leading cryptocurrency also gave a boost to the entire crypto market, pushing top coins, including Ethereum (ETH/USD), Litecoin (LTC/USD) and Ripple (XRP/USD), into the green zone. The total capitalization of the cryptocurrency market also went up: if on January 25, it was $235bn, five days later it reached the level of almost $267bn, showing an increase of 13.5%.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Some Americans think that everything that happens outside the United States does not concern them. But this is not the case at all. The economy of the United States depends largely on what happens in other countries. And, realizing this, the Fed is quite sensitive to international challenges, which is why it is sometimes called the "tail" that the dog, the global GDP, turns. At the moment, the next challenge is the coronavirus coming from China. Although there has been no obvious reaction from the "tail" yet.
The coronavirus has not yet been localized, so panic moods that lead to the sale of risky assets may become the main trend of the coming week. A positive piece of news, say, about the successful creation of a vaccine against this infection, can dramatically "turn the rivers back". It is very difficult to predict anything in this case.
If we talk about technical analysis, most of the indicators on H4 are colored green, while on D1 the neutral gray dominates. But on both timeframes, about 15% of the oscillators signal that the pair is overbought, which can serve as a harbinger, if not of a change in the trend, then at least of a certain correction to the south. Graphical analysis on H4 agrees with this development, foreshadowing a return to a very strong support of 1.0990-1.1000.
The experts' opinion at the moment, as well as that of indicators on D1, can be called neutral-gray. However, when switching from a weekly to a monthly forecast, it becomes more and more green, reaching a high of 70%. That is the number of analysts who believe that, having overcome the resistance in the 1.1100-1.1115 zone, the pair will consistently storm the height of 1.1145 in February, then 1.1170, 1.1200 and reach the December 31, 2019 high at 1.1240.
As for macroeconomic statistics, next week we will know the values of the ISM business activity indices in the US manufacturing and services sectors, as well as the traditional for the first Friday of the month data on the US labor market (including NFP).
However, the markets may expect a surprise as early as on Monday, February 03, when the January Caixin Purchasing Managers' activity index (PMI) is published, which is a leading indicator of the state of China's manufacturing sector. Its value can give the market a signal about how the coronavirus has affected the economic situation in China.
Monday's surprises may not end there – on February 03, the real season of "hunting" for the us President's seat opens. This day will be the first democratic primary in Iowa. And in the event of a strong Bernie Sanders result, there may be an equally strong market reaction;

- GBP/USD. After such an impressive jump up by 230 points at the end of last week, the vast majority of indicators on both H4 and D1 are colored green. However, as with the previous pair, about 15% of the oscillators are already in the overbought zone. Following them, the graphical analysis on D1 draws a possible fall of the British currency first to the horizon of 1.2970, and then to the level of 1.2800. The nearest strong support is 1.3100.
It should be noted that, starting a month and a half ago with fluctuations in the range 1.2900-1.3285, the pair gradually reduced volatility to the boundaries of 1.2975-1.3200. Most analysts (55%) believe that it will be able to stay within this corridor in the near future. However, not much less (45%) are those who expect the pound to continue its positive dynamics, break through the resistance in the zone of 1.3285-1.3300 and rise to the highs of last December in the area of 1.3500;

- USD/JPY. The upcoming quotes of this pair directly depend on the success of virologists. If they can tame the coronavirus in the next few days, the dollar will win. If the epidemic begins to take over new territories, and the number of its victims continues to multiply, the advantage will be on the side of the Japanese currency - the haven.
Since financial analysts do not currently have data on what is happening in scientific laboratories, their opinions are divided 50-50. As for technical analysis, 100% of trend indicators and 80% of oscillators on H4 and D1 predict the pair's fall. Graphical analysis on H4 agrees with them. Support levels are 107.70, 107.00 and 106.60. The opposite opinion is held by the graphical analysis on D1 and 20% of the oscillators that signal the pair is oversold. Resistance levels are 109.25, 109.70, the target is 110.25;

– cryptocurrencies. The BTC/USD pair has shown an increase of 30% or $2,200 in the first month of 2020. The Bitcoin Crypto Fear & Greed Index has crossed the equator and is now at the level of 55 out of the possible 100. Analysts' optimism has also grown. If earlier, remembering the unexpected collapses of the main cryptocurrency, they were afraid to give positive forecasts, now 60% of them boldly point to the $10,000 mark. And this is where investors need to be especially careful: it is in the moments of greatest optimism that large speculators can start an active game on the downside. And you don't need to go far for examples – just look at what happened last year.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/

[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for February 10 - 14, 2020

 
First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. The statistics in the United States (including ISM and NFP) look rather optimistic. The US indices have updated their record levels over the past five days: The Dow Jones is 29393 and the S&P500 is 3345. Production orders in Germany have been falling by 0.5% for three months in a row, confirming concerns about the state of the European economy, which is teetering on the edge of recession. As a result, expectations are growing among investors regarding the expansion of quantitative easing (QE) policy in the euro zone, and confidence is growing that the dollar rate will remain at least unchanged. This has recently been stated by the Fed Vice President Randal Quarles. Donald Trump also radiates optimism ahead of the presidential election, insistently reminding the voters that the unemployment in the US is at a record low of 3.5%.
Recall that the opinion of experts, as well as most indicators on D1, regarding the pair's quotes on the last five-day period, was neutral-gray: 50-50. First of all, because of the unclear situation with the coronavirus. But at the same time, on both timeframes, H4 and D1, about 15% of the oscillators gave signals the pair was overbought and the trend reversal down was upcoming. Graphical analysis on H4 agrees with this development, foreshadowing a return to a very strong support of 1.0990-1.1000.
This is exactly what happened: the pair did turn around and reached the specified support on Wednesday, February 05. This was followed by a 20-hour battle of the bulls and the bears, which, in the end, ended with the victory of the latter. The dollar continued to rise, while the euro continued to fall. The decline in coronavirus infection rates and the market support from the Central Bank of China played into the hands of the US currency. As a result, on Friday, February 07, after updating the multi-month low, the pair found a local bottom at 1.0940, and ended the trading session at 1.0945;

 - GBP/USD. Following the euro, the pound lost its position against the dollar. An additional pressure is exerted on it by concerns that the UK will still not be able to agree a trade deal with the EU during the post-Brexit transition period.
As in the case of EUR/USD, about 15% of oscillators last week gave clear signals about the pair being overbought, and graphical analysis predicted a decline in the British currency first to the horizon of 1.2970, and then to the level of 1.2800. In fact, the pair's fall stopped on Friday, February 07, approximately in the middle of the named range – in the 1.2880 zone;

- USD/JPY. The decrease in the rate of the coronavirus infection and the hopes for an early victory over this infection reduce the interest of markets in safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese yen. As a result, the pair managed to break the landmark level of 110.00 in the second half of the week and reach the level of 110.016. Then there was a rebound, and the final chord sounded in the area of a strong medium-term support/resistance zone – at the level of 109.75;

– cryptocurrencies. - Bitcoin has had the best January in the past seven years. The value of the main coin has increased by about 30 percent. The volume of capitalization of the asset added about $39 billion. according to experts, the reason for this rise was the geopolitical situation. The approaching halving has also affected the value of Bitcoin. The last time Bitcoin showed such aggressive growth dynamics was in January 2013. Then the coin increased in value by about 54 percent. It is noteworthy that at that time the asset was also preparing for the halving.
Another reason pushing the BTC/USD pair up was the coronavirus. "Asian investors are increasingly buying cryptocurrency because of the situation with the coronavirus. Payments in dollars may be banned, so Bitcoin and other coins will be the only way out," Vijay Ayyar, one of the top managers of the Luno crypto exchange, said on CNBC. Also, in his opinion, the price of Bitcoin is affected by the "black" market.  Many companies from China have closed the export of goods, which is why the scale of smuggling paid for with cryptocurrency has increased significantly.
Whatever it was, the halving, along with the virus and the smugglers, have almost "pushed" Bitcoin quotes to the cherished bar of $10,000: on Thursday, February 06, fully justifying the forecasts of most experts, the cost of one coin reached the mark of $9,860.
Naturally, the growth of the leading cryptocurrency gave another impetus to the top altcoins. Ethereum (ETH/USD) reached $223.9, Litecoin (LTC/USD) – $75.30 and Ripple (XRP/USD) – $0.2800.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Over the past week, all most popular currency pairs have reached landmark levels: EUR/USD(1.1000), GBP/USD (1.3000) and USD/JPY (110), which makes the task of forecasting their further movement even more difficult, since these levels can act as both a very strong support and resistance.
At the time of writing this forecast (Saturday, February 08), the situation with indicators for the EUR/USD pair mirrors what we observed a week ago. 100% of trend indicators and 85% of oscillators on H4 and D1 are now colored red. And the remaining 15% of the oscillators now signal the pair is oversold and a rebound up is expected.
60% of experts, supported by graphical analysis on H4, believe that the pair will continue to fall, aiming to test the lows of November-October 2019 in the area of 1.0880. And if successful, it will open the way to the zone of 1.0500-1.0800, where it already visited in 2015-2017.
However, graphical analysis as a further perspective draws a rebound of the pair from the support of 1.0880 back up: first to the resistance of 1.1000, and then another 100 points higher. The majority (60%) of analysts agree that the pair will reach 1.1100 and 1.1200 again in the medium term.
As for the macroeconomic analysis, next week we will be covered by a whole wave of important events. Among them are the speech of the Fed Jerome Powell to the US Congress, the publication of statistics on the consumer markets of Germany and the United States on 13 and 14 February, and the release of GDP data for Germany and Eurozone at the end of the week, on Friday 14 February;

- GBP/USD. On Tuesday, February 11, the data on the UK GDP for the 4th quarter of 2019 will also be available. It is expected that the increase will be zero, which may put additional pressure on the pound. It should be noted that the situation with Brexit and the monetary policy of the Bank of England makes the prospects for the British currency very vague. At least, now the experts' opinions are divided into three almost equal parts: 30% are for the growth, 30% are for the fall and 40% are for the sideways movement of the pair. In the medium term, the majority of analysts (65%) still hope for the successful promotion of the trade negotiations between Britain and the EU.
As for technical analysis, the situation repeats the situation with the EUR/USD: the indicators are colored red, and only 15% of the oscillators are in the oversold zone.   
The pair finished the week at the level of1. 2880 ¬- in the Pivot Point zone, along which it rotated from the end of October to the beginning of December 2019. Therefore, the nearest borders of its fluctuations are the borders of the same last year's corridor -1.2800 and 1.3000. However, the fall of the pound over the past five days by as much as 320 points suggests that it may not stay in the specified channel. The next target for the bears is the 1.2400-1.2580 zone. If the trend turns up, we will see the pair in the 1.2975-1.3200 zone with a Pivot Point of 1.3100. Due to the increased volatility of the pair, it is not possible to give more accurate benchmarks (recall that in December 2019, it "flew" more than 600 points in just 10 days!);   

- USD/JPY. Japan is the most energy-dependent country due to the lack of its own energy resources, especially now, when after blocking several nuclear power plants, it was necessary to significantly increase purchases of petroleum products. Therefore, a sharp increase in the price of this energy carrier always leads to a weakening of the Japanese currency.
Over the past week, the oil market has been experiencing increased volatility in anticipation of the OPEC + Committee's decision to reduce the oil production. As a result, it was decided to reduce its production by 600,000 barrels per day, which should stop the fall in the price of "black gold". The easing of China's trade policy should also support the oil market, in particular, Beijing's decision to reduce duties on US goods worth $75 billion. Most likely, all this affected the growth of the USD/JPY pair and the fall of the Japanese currency to 110 yen per dollar last week. 60% of experts expect that the pair will continue to grow further, which will be facilitated not only by the oil factor, but also by the improvement of the situation with the coronavirus.
However, we must not forget that since January 06, Brent oil futures have fallen by almost 21% – from $68.91 to $54.45, which gives reason to the remaining 40% of analysts to side with the Japanese currency.
The technical analysis situation here is as follows. On the H4 timeframe, 80% of oscillators and 75% of trend indicators look up, while on D1, 85% of oscillators and 90% of trend indicators are green. So, there is a clear advantage of bullish sentiment.
Graphical analysis on H4 indicates a drop in the pair to the zone of 109.10-109.30, the following supports are 108.30 and 107.65. On D1, the picture is reversed: first, growth to the 110.80-111.30 level, and then to the 111.70 height. The nearest resistance is 1.2575.

– cryptocurrencies. So, the price of Bitcoin has updated the 3-month high. "Beware of a trend reversal!"- 20% of experts warns. Against the background of the coronavirus epidemic, relations between the US and China may stabilize, which will cause an increase in investor interest in fiat currencies. In this case, Bitcoin can sink a lot. Even without the coronavirus, these two industrial giants are moving step by step toward the end of the trade war. But how much will this affect the Bitcoin quotes?
80% of analysts believe that a particularly strong drawdown (below $9,100) should not be expected, and the pair will soon reach the $10,450 mark. And there's $12,300 just around the corner. Thomas Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors, predicts even greater growth. In his opinion, the average yield on Bitcoin in the next six months will reach 200%.
But, as often happens, when everyone looks up, the price goes down. Therefore, we strongly advise you not to forget about the 20% of specialists who call for extreme caution.

Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/