Nordfx broker: news, weekly Analytics

[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews of the Week

– Michael Saylor, the CEO of MicroStrategy, conducted a Twitter poll on the importance of the U.S. presidential candidates supporting cryptocurrencies for the upcoming 2024 elections. As of May 29, the poll had garnered participation from 31,200 users. Nearly 84% of the respondents answered "yes," while only 16% voted against it.
It is worth noting that in recent times, some American politicians have increasingly expressed their willingness to foster the development of the crypto industry if elected as president. Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida recently stated his opposition to the implementation of a digital dollar and voiced his support for Bitcoin. He criticized the approach of the Joe Biden administration towards crypto assets, believing that overly stringent regulatory measures could stifle the industry's growth in the country.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the Democratic Party candidate, is also convinced that Bitcoin can save people from financial collapse. The politician pledged to protect the rights of Bitcoin owners and miners if he becomes president.

– After significant and tumultuous events in the crypto space in 2022 and early 2023, such as the FTX crash in November and numerous other bankruptcies including Celsius, Voyager Digital, and Three Arrows Capital, bitcoin managed to reduce its losses and grow by over 60% since the beginning of this year. Business Insider gathered expert opinions on what could happen to the leading cryptocurrency by the end of 2023.
Charmyn Ho, Head of Analytics at the crypto exchange Bybit, believes that bitcoin won't be able to reach a new all-time high until the macroeconomic environment becomes clearer. This depends on the forecast of a potential recession in the US, Europe, and other major economies due to an inverted yield curve combined with a range of other unfavourable macroeconomic factors such as inflation. Another factor to consider is the halving, although it is expected to occur in April 2024.
According to Jagdeep Sidhu, President of the Syscoin Foundation, despite several crypto storms, the ecosystem's resilience remains evident. The market has recovered from the FTX debacle, showcasing its ability to absorb shocks and evolve. If inflation in the US decreases and there is more regulatory clarity regarding digital assets, bitcoin could reach $38,000 by the end of the year, roughly 40% higher than the current value.
Based on Tim Shan's scenario, Chief Operating Officer of the crypto exchange Dexalot, bitcoin will trade in a range of $25,000 to $32,000 by the end of 2023. However, if inflation remains high, it may return to the lows seen earlier this year.
David Uhryniak, Director of Ecosystem Development at TRON, is confident that bitcoin will finish the year above $35,000. According to him, traders are not rushing to invest significant amounts of money and want to assess the direction of the leading cryptocurrency and the market as a whole. By the fourth quarter of 2023, much of the uncertainty should dissipate.

– According to analysts at JPMorgan, the price of bitcoin is expected to rise to $45,000. This is indicated by the current price of gold, which is nearly $2,000 per ounce. Analysts state that these two assets typically move in tandem. JPMorgan strategists estimate that the value of physical gold held outside central banks is currently valued at approximately $3 trillion. This implies a price of digital gold around $45,000 per coin, assuming that the volume of bitcoin in private investor portfolios aligns with the volume of the precious metal.
However, the $45,000 price is considered by JPMorgan analysts as the upper limit for bitcoin, suggesting limited potential for the asset. Nevertheless, this calculation does not take into account the halving event and the increased costs for miners. The upcoming halving in 2024 will automatically double the cost of bitcoin mining to around $40,000, and historically, this figure has served as the lower bound for the asset's price.
Regarding Ethereum, JPMorgan notes that the altcoin may face some selling pressure and is expected to lag behind bitcoin in terms of growth in the near term.

– Renowned cryptocurrency analyst, Tone Vays, believes that bitcoin is exiting its consolidation phase, with many investors having already "bought the bitcoin dip," indicating that the leading cryptocurrency is gearing up for further growth. However, in order to continue this upward trajectory, bitcoin needs to overcome resistance at the $30,000 level. If the bulls manage to do so, BTC is poised to reach new price highs.
"It is indeed time for bitcoin to rise," says Vays. "Although, when looking at the weekly chart, the bulls lack strength. [...] There is still time to overcome resistance. We need to surpass $30,000, reverse the Lucid SAR indicator, and then we will rise to $34,000, where another resistance level awaits."
For reference, the Lucid SAR indicator is a variation of the Parabolic SAR indicator. It is a trend-following indicator that combines price and time to calculate trends and determine entry and exit points.

– Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of BitMEX, believes that 2023 will be highly volatile for bitcoin due to the actions of the US Federal Reserve, but he does not expect the cryptocurrency to reach new records. "I don't think bitcoin will reach $70,000 this year. It is more likely that we will surpass this level next year, after the halving. Bitcoin will continue to grow in 2025 and 2026. And then, I expect an apocalypse. This situation will not occur when everyone expects it... We are currently sitting on a powder keg - the US has printed a huge amount of money, there is no trust in it, and people are trying to earn a living," muses Hayes.
It's worth noting that these are the personal opinions and speculations of Arthur Hayes, and they do not represent a guaranteed forecast for the future performance of bitcoin. Cryptocurrency markets are inherently volatile and subject to various factors, making it challenging to predict their exact trajectory.

– Researchers from VanEck have presented three price scenarios for Ethereum in 2030. In the base case scenario, the coin would be valued at $11,849. In the bullish scenario, the ETH price would reach $51,006, while in the unfavorable bearish scenario, the coin would plummet to $343. "Our estimates are based on the assumption that Ethereum will become the dominant global open-source settlement network. A significant portion of the commercial activity of high-profit potential business sectors will be conducted on the platform. The dominant platform is likely to capture the lion's share of the market," write VanEck analysts.
The report also notes that Ethereum is likely to become a store of wealth similar to bitcoin but with some differences. "We argue that ETH goes beyond being a transactional currency or a commodity similar to oil or gas. We believe that the coin is not a full-fledged store of value like Bitcoin due to the potential for code changes in Ethereum and the overall utility-focused nature of the project. However, this cryptocurrency can become a savings asset for government organizations seeking to maximize human capital.".

– The government of Bali, Indonesia, implemented strict measures at the end of May against cryptocurrency payments for goods and services, reminding tourists that the Indonesian rupiah is the only legal tender. Crypto tourists will face severe consequences, including administrative sanctions, deportation, and even criminal prosecution. As a result, some members of the crypto community have reconsidered their plans to visit Bali.
Tourism plays a crucial role in the island's economy, contributing 28% of its revenue. If a portion of tourists stops visiting the resort, it could lead to various economic problems, including increased unemployment and a decline in people's income.

– Michael Saylor, CEO of MicroStrategy, believes that the bitcoin network can be an effective tool in combating bots and fake accounts. The businessman cited the use of bots on social media as an example. According to him, the digital "civil war" in modern society is fuelled by billions of fake accounts that sow hatred among real users. With the rapid development of Artificial Intelligence, creating deepfakes has become much easier, while detecting them has become more challenging.

The head of MicroStrategy believes that decentralized identity (DID) solutions can address this issue, increase trust, and ensure secure and independent data exchange. For example, if someone wants to launch billions of bots on Twitter, it would cost them billions of transactions. By integrating cryptocurrencies into social networks and leveraging the capabilities of the decentralized bitcoin network, such actions would become costly and have serious consequences, according to Saylor.

– According to popular analyst Credible Crypto, bitcoin could replicate the impulse waves of growth observed in previous bull cycles and set a new price record as early as 2023. "I keep hearing that it's unrealistic for Bitcoin to set a new price record this year. But I think we need to compare it to the last impulse in 2020. Remember, it took Bitcoin about three months to surpass the $10,000 level. But within the following two months, it grew by an additional 90%. And just four months later, it set a price record, increasing fivefold from $10,000. So don't tell me that anything is impossible for Bitcoin. We'll likely see it at new highs, possibly even this year," wrote Credible Crypto.

– Nova, a specialist in tracking crypto whales' activities, has discovered an average trader who has become a major holder of digital assets in just five months. Trader 0x743 has executed successful trades since January of this year and now boasts a record realized profit of over 10,000%, with their current portfolio valued at approximately $578,345. Nova noted that the crypto whale's success is attributed to a successful trading strategy rather than mere luck. 0x743 did not make reckless purchases and demonstrated "discipline and good trading behaviour."
It's worth noting that the crypto market is highly volatile, and extraordinary profits come with inherent risks. Individual trading outcomes can vary, and it's important for traders to exercise caution, conduct thorough research, and make informed decisions when engaging in cryptocurrency trading.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

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[Stan NordFX]

Crypto Traders Vote for NordFX Once Again

The broker NordFX has once again affirmed the high quality of services it provides to its clients. Based on the results of the vote on the international Forex portal, FXDailyinfo, the company was awarded the title of "Best Crypto Trading Platform - 2023".

FXDailyInfo is a vital information resource that provides daily news and financial market analytics, including broker reviews, educational materials, bonus and promotion information, and other valuable insights for traders. The FXDailyInfo Awards, on the other hand, are annual accolades given for exceptional achievements and contributions to various segments of the financial market, awarded to companies and individuals based on the open voting of portal visitors.

In 2019, NordFX was named the "Best Cryptocurrency Broker" at the FXDailyInfo Awards. Now, four years later, the title of "Best Crypto Trading Platform" has reaffirmed NordFX's solid reputation in the world of online cryptocurrency trading. During the voting, visitors cited the following reasons for their decision:

- A wide selection of cryptocurrency pairs, allowing traders to find the most profitable trading opportunities at any given moment.
- Advanced analytical features and tools, reviews, and forecasts, which help traders make informed trading decisions.
- Cutting-edge security technologies that NordFX employs to protect its clients' funds. Unlike many cryptocurrency exchanges, NordFX has never been hacked in all its years of operation, and not a single cent of client funds has ever been stolen.
- Ease of use. The MetaTrader-4 platform has an intuitive interface, making cryptocurrency trading accessible to people of various experience levels.
- Extremely fast order execution. The presence of modern technologies allows for order execution in just 0.5 seconds, enabling NordFX traders to take maximum advantage of rapidly changing market conditions.
- The ability to profit both in rising and falling markets, without the need to physically own cryptocurrency.
- Finally, the availability of margin trading is a critical factor. It suffices to say that to open a transaction of 1 Bitcoin, you only need $150, only $15 for a transaction in 1 Ethereum, and $0.02 for a trade of 1 Ripple. This means that traders can trade cryptocurrency volumes tens and hundreds of times exceeding their own funds, which significantly boosts potential profits.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/

[Stan NordFX]

NordFX CopyTrading: 5,343% Profit from Gold Trades

The brokerage firm NordFX has summed up the results of its clients' trading transactions for May 2023. The social trading services, CopyTrading and PAMM, as well as the profit earned by the company's IB partners, were also evaluated.

- The leader for the month was a trader from Western Asia, account number 1692XXX, who made a profit of 130,874 USD. This substantial result was achieved through trades with gold (XAU/USD) and the British pound (GBP/USD).
- The second step of the podium was taken by a representative from Southern Asia, account number 1679XXX, with a result of 33,895 USD, also made through trades with gold (XAU/USD).
- In third place was another trader from Southern Asia, account number 1549XXX, who earned 24,857 USD in May through trades with the euro (EUR/USD) and the British pound (GBP/USD).

In NordFX's passive investment services, the situation was as follows:

- In CopyTrading, we continue to track the fate of the "veteran" signal KennyFXPRO - Prismo 2K. It continues to recover from the shock of November 14, 2022, when its maximum drawdown exceeded 67%. As of today, it has achieved a profit of 348% over 757 days. Another signal under the same "brand" also draws attention: KennyFXPRO - Variables_RBB 35. In its 175 days of existence, it has shown a relatively modest profit of 40%. However, what makes this signal interesting is that this profit was achieved with a fairly moderate drawdown of 24%.

One notable start-up signal is Future Forex, whose provider managed to achieve a 91% profit from GBP/USD trades over 68 days, with a maximum drawdown of about 30%.

Finally, the super-hit of the last two months: Trade2win. In just 62 days, this signal has achieved a phenomenal profit of 5,343% from gold (XAU/USD) trades, with an equally remarkable drawdown of less than 15%. Trade2win's trading style is not overly aggressive: there are few trades, and the average leverage is far from the maximum possible, ranging between 50 and 150. Despite these impressive achievements, it's important to remember that past performance doesn't guarantee future success, and that trading in financial markets is risky. Thus, to avoid losing funds, subscribers should exercise maximum caution and always adhere to money management principles.

- The PAMM service showcase still features two accounts we have mentioned several times in previous reviews. These are KennyFXPRO-The Multi 3000 EA and TranquilityFX-The Genesis v3. On November 14, 2022, like their CopyTrading colleagues, they suffered significant losses – drawdown approached 43% at that point. However, the PAMM managers decided not to give up, and as of May 31, 2023, the profit on the first of these accounts exceeded 100%, and on the second, 66%. We also continue to monitor the Trade and Earn account. It was opened more than a year ago, but lay dormant, awakening only in November. As a result, over the past 7 months, its return has exceeded 100% with a very small drawdown of less than 10%.

Among NordFX's IB partners, the Top 3 looks as follows:
- The largest commission reward of the month, amounting to 10,370 USD, was credited to a partner from Western Asia, account No. 1645XXX.
- In second place is a partner from Southern Asia, account No. 1668XXX, who received 9,093 USD.
- The top three is rounded off by a partner from Eastern Asia, account No. 1218XXX,
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/

[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for June 05 - 09, 2023

EUR/USD: Will the Dollar Return to Steady Growth?

The dollar has been rising since May 4. The DXY Index reached the 104.609 mark on the last day of spring, May 31. It hasn't soared this high since January 2023. As we have previously mentioned, two primary factors were propelling the American currency upwards.

The first one is the investors' appetite for the dollar as a safe-haven asset, triggered by the threat of a U.S. default. However, the Senate voted in favour of passing a bill on the public debt limit last week. Consequently, the default threat has finally passed, which has improved market sentiments and weakened demand for the dollar.

The second factor was the anticipation of a further rise in the key Federal Reserve interest rate. Amid hawkish statements from officials, the probability that the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) would increase the rate to 5.5% at its June 14 meeting rose above 60% by the end of May.

However, as the old song goes, "a beauty's heart is prone to change and fickleness". The first to play the role of such a "beauty" was the new Vice President of the Federal Reserve, Philip Jefferson, who subtly hinted at the need for a pause in the monetary tightening process. Furthermore, Patrick Harker, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, outright stated that "we should skip the rate hike at least at the June meeting". Then, Harker went even further and suggested skipping every other FOMC meeting, naturally including the one in June. Market participants immediately recalled Jerome Powell, the head of the Federal Reserve, who had also mentioned a pause.

Strong US macroeconomic data could have aided the dollar. However, the employment report from ADP released on Thursday, June 1, showed that the number of jobs in the private sector decreased from 291K in April to 278K in May. Meanwhile, the number of initial unemployment claims, albeit slightly, increased from 230K to 232K. The cooling of the economy was also indicated by the fall in the ISM's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in the manufacturing sector from 47.1 to 46.9. (As a reminder, if the PMI is below 50, it indicates economic contraction, especially if the trend persists over several months). The substantial revision of data on unit labour costs for Q1 2023, which was downgraded from 6.3% to 4.2%, also fuelled dovish expectations. Such weak statistics added doubts for market participants about another rate hike on June 14th. As a result, according to the FedWatch Tool from CME Group, the chances of this happening have plummeted from 60% to 25%. The DXY Index also took a southern turn.

If the US statistics on June 1 worked against the American currency, the data from Europe the day before, on May 31, conversely, helped EUR/USD reach a 9-week low at 1.0634. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed that inflation in the Eurozone is on a downward trend. With a previous value of 7.0% and a forecast of 6.3%, the actual CPI dropped to 6.1%. If we talk about individual countries, the rate of consumer price growth in Italy fell from 8.7% to 8.1%, in France - from 6.9% to 6.0%, and in Germany - from 7.6% to 6.3%. In Spain, the CPI fell to a two-year low.

At the same time, with the decrease in inflation, the chances for further aggressive tightening of its monetary policy by the European Central Bank also went downhill. Although, at its next meeting on June 15, the ECB is still likely to raise the rate by 25 basis points (bp) to 4.0%, even after this, it will still remain below the current Federal Reserve rate of 5.25%. And if the ECB stops there and takes a pause, it will deprive EUR/USD bulls of an important trump card.

Strong labor market statistics, traditionally due on the first Friday of the month, June 2, could have helped the dollar towards the end of the week. The NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) lived up to expectations: the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector, with a previous value of 294K and a forecasted fall to 180K, actually increased to 339K. However, another important indicator, the unemployment rate, disappointed investors: the unemployment rate in the US reached 3.7% in May (3.4% in April, forecast 3.5%).

Following such an ambiguous employment report, the pair ended the five-day period at a level of 1.0707. As for the near-term prospects, at the time of writing the review, the evening of June 2, the forecast is as neutral as possible: 50% of analysts expect the pair to move north, and just as many expect it to move south. Both among trend indicators and oscillators on D1, a substantial advantage is on the side of the dollar - 85% of each are coloured red, with 15% on the green side. Among trend indicators, 85% side with the reds (15% side with the greens). The pair's nearest support is located around 1.0680, followed by zones and levels at 1.0620-1.0635 and 1.0490-1.0525. Bulls will meet resistance around 1.0745-1.0707, then 1.0800-1.0835, 1.0865, 1.0895-1.0925, 1.0985, 1.1045, and 1.1090-1.1110.

For the upcoming week's calendar, it is worth noting Monday, June 5, when the ISM's Service Sector PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) for the US will be known. The EIA's (Energy Information Administration's) Energy Market Outlook and data on US crude oil reserves may cause some volatility on Tuesday and Wednesday. Additionally, Eurozone retail sales volumes will be announced on Tuesday, June 6. Thursday, June 8 could also be quite volatile, with data coming in on Eurozone GDP (Gross Domestic Product) and the US unemployment rate.

GBP/USD: UK Inflation Propels Pound Upwards

Over the last week, the pound has recovered all of its losses from May 12 to May 25. This occurred after last week's inflation figures in the UK shocked the market with an unexpected increase. The April release reported a rise in consumer prices by 1.2%, compared to the 0.8% increase recorded a month earlier. The core Consumer Price Index reached multi-year highs, hitting 6.8% YoY, exceeding the predicted 6.2%. Although annual inflation has slowed from 10.1% to 8.7%, it still exceeded the 8.2% forecast. This is a 13-month low, but still significantly above the target level. In particular, food inflation reached 19.1%, a level not seen since 1977. This figure greatly impacts low-income households, forcing them to spend more on food and less on other goods and services.

UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt has already stated the need to continue a hawkish monetary policy course, despite increasing recession risks. The official noted that economic recovery is only possible if inflation is fully defeated. As a result, investors have become more confident that the Bank of England (BoE) will raise the rate by 25 basis points at its next meeting, and likely will not stop there.

There's another factor that allowed GBP/USD to reach 1.2544 on June 2. If the dollar was strengthening its position energetically in mid-May, last week the US currency found itself under selling pressure (the reasons were indicated earlier), which facilitated a rally of GBP/USD. After the release of US labour market data, it concluded on the note of 1.2450.

In the current situation, the median forecast of analysts looks as follows: 45% of experts maintain a bullish outlook, 30% prefer the bears, and the same percentage (25%) chose to abstain from comments. Among oscillators on D1, only 15% recommend selling, 50% are set to buy, and 35% are painted in a neutral grey colour. Among trend indicators, the balance of power between green and red is 85% to 15% in favour of the greens.

If the pair moves south, its support levels and zones are 1.2390-1.2420, 1.2300-1.2330, 1.2275, 1.2200-1.2210. In the event of the pair's rise, it will meet resistance at levels 1.2480, 1.2510, 1.2540, 1.2570, 1.2610-1.2635, 1.2675-1.2700, 1.2820, and 1.2940.

The Composite Business Activity Index (PMI), as well as the PMI in the services sector of the United Kingdom will be published the next week, on Monday, June 5. The picture of business activity will be supplemented by the PMI in the country's construction sector the following day, Tuesday, June 6.

USD/JPY: The Pair Seeks a Return to Earth

The previous review was titled "USD/JPY Received a 'Ticket to the Moon'. As for the current one, it could be called "The Pair Seeks a Return to Earth". Or at least, it tries to do so, justifying the forecast given by 75% of analysts a week ago. If the pair reached its maximum for the past five-day period (and the last six months) on May 30 at the height of 140.92, the minimum on June 01 was 250 points lower, at 138.42. However, then the ambition to reach the stars took over again, and the pair finished at the level of 139.95.

It's clear that the yen's strengthening in recent days has been directly tied to the weakening of the dollar. However, when it comes to future prospects, things are very unclear and uncertain. Let's just quote a few statements.

Speaking in Parliament, Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said that it will take some time to reach the 2.0% price growth target. He also added that he can't specify when this target will be reached. Moreover, the BoJ chief believes that setting strict timelines to achieve this goal could cause unexpected consequences for the market and hence is undesirable.

On Friday, June 2, a statement was also issued by Japan's Finance Minister, Shunichi Suzuki. In his opinion, currency rate movements are determined by the market and various factors. He also mentioned: "A weak yen has various impacts on Japan's economy". However, the Minister did not specify what these "various factors" are and what kind of "various impacts" he was referring to.

In the current situation, economists at ING, the largest banking group in the Netherlands, believe that "USD/JPY appears overvalued compared to trading conditions, which are now much more favorable for the yen than a year ago." They also note that "there is still a risk that the Bank of Japan will surprise on June 16, further normalizing its yield curve control policy," which would be a positive factor for the yen.

Strategists from Wells Fargo, one of the "big four" U.S. banks, are also relatively optimistic about the future of the Japanese currency, expecting the yen to be the main beneficiary of a weakening U.S. dollar. They believe that "The Bank of Japan will adjust its policy in Q4 2023 for further normalization of the government bond market," which could provide an opportunity for the yen to strengthen by the end of the year. "The strengthening of the yen should also be supported by the end of the global central bank tightening cycle and a transition to global easing, as well as a recession in the U.S. in the second half of 2023," Wells Fargo strategists said. "We are targeting a USD/JPY rate of 136.00 by the end of 2023 and 129.00 by the end of 2024." (end of quote).

As for the near future of the pair, the voices of analysts are distributed as follows. At this point, 65% of them are hoping for further strengthening of the Japanese currency and movement of the pair to the south. Only 25% of experts vote for a rise in the dollar, and the remaining 10% have taken a neutral position. Among the indicators on D1, the absolute advantage is on the side of the dollar: 100% of trend indicators and 85% of oscillators point north (10% signal overbought conditions). The remaining 15% of oscillators point south. The nearest support level is in the 139.45 area, followed by levels and zones 138.75-139.05, 137.50, 135.90-136.10, 134.85-135.15, 134.40, 133.60, 132.80-133.00, 132.00, 131.25, 130.50-130.60 and 129.65. The nearest resistance is 140.90-141.00, then bulls will need to overcome obstacles at levels 142.20, 143.50 and 144.90-145.10. And from there it's not far to the October 2022 high of 151.95.

No significant economic information concerning the Japanese economy is anticipated in the coming week. The exception is Thursday, June 8, when the volume of Japan's GDP for Q1 2023 will be announced.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: A Moderately Positive Forecast for Bitcoin

After bouncing off the $25,850 support on May 25, the bulls launched an attack, instilling hope in the hearts of investors. However, their strength proved insufficient to reach the $29,000 resistance level. A local peak was recorded on May 29 at $28,433, after which BTC/USD retreated to the $26,500 support, leaving investors disappointed.

This dynamic was likely triggered by speculations surrounding the US government debt. Although, upon examining the charts, there was no direct correlation with stock indices (S&P500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq), nor was there an inverse correlation with the Dollar Index (DXY) observed in bitcoin quotes.

After significant and tumultuous events in the crypto space in 2022 and early 2023, such as the FTX crash in November and numerous other bankruptcies, including Celsius, Voyager Digital, and Three Arrows Capital, bitcoin managed to recover its losses and grow by over 60%. However, a period of calm ensued for eleven weeks. Renowned cryptocurrency analyst Ton Vays believes that the leading cryptocurrency is concluding its consolidation phase, with many investors already "buying the bitcoin dip," indicating that BTC is preparing for further growth. To achieve this, though, it must overcome resistance at the $30,000 level. If the "bulls" succeed, BTC will reach new price highs.

"It is indeed time for bitcoin to grow," says Vays. "However, looking at the weekly chart, the bulls lack strength. [...] There is still time to overcome resistance. We need to surpass $30,000, reverse the Lucid SAR indicator, and then we will rise to $34,000, where another resistance awaits." (For reference: The Lucid SAR indicator is a variation of the Parabolic SAR. It is a trend-following indicator that combines price and time to calculate trends and determine entry and exit points.)

According to analysts at JPMorgan, the price of bitcoin is expected to rise to $45,000. This is indicated by the current price of gold, which is close to $2,000 per ounce. Analysts note that these two assets usually move in tandem. Based on JPMorgan strategists' calculations, the value of physical gold held outside central banks is currently estimated at around $3 trillion. This implies a price of digital gold, or bitcoin, at around $45,000 per coin, assuming the volume of bitcoin in private investors' portfolios matches that of the precious metal.

However, analysts at JPMorgan view $45,000 as the upper limit for bitcoin's price, suggesting limited potential for the asset. This calculation does not take into account the halving process and the increasing costs for miners. The upcoming halving in 2024 will automatically double the cost of bitcoin mining to approximately $40,000, and historically, this figure has served as the lower boundary for the asset's price.

When it comes to miners, the situation is twofold. In pursuit of profits, they contribute to the increasing computational difficulty. Over the past five months of 2023, the difficulty has grown by 45%, equal to the growth seen throughout the entire year of 2022. The price increase of bitcoin in Q1 of this year added optimism among miners, leading them to actively expand their computing power. However, this had the opposite effect, as the increased difficulty impacted mining profitability, bringing it down to levels seen on January 13 when BTC was trading at $19,000.

Former CEO of BitMEX, Arthur Hayes, believes that 2023 will be highly volatile for bitcoin due to the actions of the Federal Reserve System (FRS) in the United States. However, he does not expect the cryptocurrency to reach new all-time highs this year. Hayes states, "I don't think bitcoin will reach $70,000 this year. Most likely, we will surpass that level next year after the halving. Bitcoin will continue to grow in 2025 and 2026. And then, I anticipate an apocalypse. This situation will occur when least expected... We are currently sitting on a powder keg: the US has printed a massive amount of money, there is a lack of trust in them, and people are trying to make a living for themselves," Hayes concludes.

Popular analyst Credible Crypto disagrees with him. According to his opinion, bitcoin may replicate the impulsive waves of growth observed in previous bull cycles and set a new price record as early as 2023. "I keep hearing that it's impossible for bitcoin to reach a new all-time high this year. But I think we need to compare it to the last impulse in 2020. Remember, it took bitcoin about three months to surpass the $10,000 level. But within the next two months, it increased by another 90%. And just four months later, it set a new price record, growing fivefold from $10,000. So don't tell me that anything is impossible for bitcoin. We'll see it at new highs, most likely this year," Credible Crypto burst with optimism.

The publication Business Insider has also taken an interest in expert forecasts regarding what may happen to the leading cryptocurrency by the end of 2023. Charmyn Ho, Head of Analytics at the crypto exchange Bybit, believes that bitcoin will not be able to reach a new high until the macroeconomic environment becomes clearer. It all depends on the potential forecast of a recession in the US, Europe, and other major economies due to an inverted yield curve combined with a range of other unfavorable macroeconomic factors, such as inflation. The halving factor should also be taken into account, although it is expected to occur in April 2024.

According to Jagdeep Sidhu, President of the Syscoin Foundation, despite several crypto storms, the resilience of the ecosystem remains evident. The market has recovered from the ashes of FTX, with its inherent ability to absorb shocks and evolve. If inflation in the US decreases and there is more clarity in terms of regulating digital assets, bitcoin could reach the $38,000 mark by the end of the year, which is approximately 40% higher than the current level.

According to the scenario presented by Tim Shan, Chief Operating Officer of the crypto exchange Dexalot, bitcoin is expected to trade in a range of $25,000 to $32,000 by the end of 2023. However, if inflation remains high, it may return to the lows seen earlier this year.

David Uhryniak, Director of Ecosystem Development at TRON, is confident that bitcoin will finish the year above $35,000. According to him, traders are not rushing to invest significant amounts of money and want to see which direction the leading cryptocurrency and the market as a whole will move. By Q4 2023, most of the uncertainties should disappear.

The cryptocurrency market is not solely reliant on bitcoin. It's been a while since we discussed the second most significant cryptocurrency, ethereum. This altcoin also demonstrates high volatility, and investment returns depend heavily on the entry point. For example, the coin's price increased from $90 to $4,855 from March 2020 to November 2021, a more than 50-fold gain. However, it had dropped to $880 by June 2022, losing 80% of its value. Looking at the returns from the beginning of 2018 to the present, they stand at a modest 30%.

Researchers from VanEck have presented three price scenarios for ethereum over a seven-year horizon. In the base case scenario, the coin will be valued at $11,849 in 2030. In the bullish scenario, ETH could reach $51,006, while in the unfavourable bearish scenario, ethereum would plummet to $343. "Our estimates are based on the assumption that ethereum will become the dominant global network for transactions, hosting a significant portion of the most profitable business sectors. The dominant platform is likely to capture the lion's share of the market," write the VanEck analysts.

The report also notes that ethereum is likely to become a store of wealth, much like bitcoin, but with some differences. "We argue that ETH goes beyond being a transactional currency or a commodity-like oil or gas. We believe the coin is not a full-fledged store of value like bitcoin, due to the potential for code changes in ethereum and the project's utility-focused position. Nevertheless, this cryptocurrency can become a savings asset for government organizations seeking to maximize human capital."

However, according to JPMorgan strategists, the main threat to the number one altcoin comes from government organizations. It is their pressure and selling activity that poses a challenge for ethereum, and in the near future, it may lag behind bitcoin in terms of growth. This became particularly noticeable after SEC Chairman Gary Gensler stated that "everything other than bitcoin" falls under securities laws. "Crypto tokens and crypto securities will be regulated and may even cease to exist. Bitcoin is the only commodity that the SEC does not intend to regulate. Bitcoin is the safest network and the safest asset," commented MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor on Gensler's statement.

At the time of writing this review on the evening of Friday, June 2, BTC/USD is trading at $27,155, and ETH/USD is trading at $1,900. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization stands at $1.149 trillion ($1.123 trillion a week ago). Bitcoin's dominance in the market is 47.51%, while ethereum accounts for 20.65%. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has remained relatively unchanged over the past seven days and is currently in the Neutral zone at 50 points (compared to 49 points a week ago).
 

NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/

[Stan NordFX]

XAU/USD: Historical Overview and Forecast Until 2027

Gold is one of the favourite trading instruments of the most successful traders at NordFX. This can be easily confirmed by looking at the monthly rankings published by this brokerage company. That is why it is appropriate to provide a special review, focusing solely on the XAU/USD pair.

Is Gold Truly a Protective Asset?

In the current economic situation, as leading central banks worldwide attempt to curb inflation, the price of this precious metal has reached a historic high, hitting $2,080 per troy ounce on May 4. Market participants are rushing to buy gold, believing it can safeguard their capital from devaluation.

According to a survey conducted by Bloomberg, approximately 50% of respondents identified gold as their primary safe-haven asset (with US Treasury bonds coming in second place, receiving only 15% of the votes). However, is gold truly an effective tool for hedging price risks, or is this a widespread misconception?

Consider, for instance, the period from March to October 2022 when gold prices fell from $2,070 to $1,616, a decline of almost 22%. This occurred despite the fact that inflation in the United States reached a 40-year peak during that time. So, what kind of protective asset is gold, then?

The Growth of Gold Prices

If we trace the dynamics of gold prices since the beginning of the 20th century, we observe the following pattern. In the year 1900, the price of this precious metal was approximately $20 per troy ounce.

During the period from 1914 to 1918, amidst and immediately after World War I, the price rose to around $35. Then, in the 1930s, during the Great Depression and as a result of currency reforms in the United States, the price was set at $20.67 per troy ounce. Throughout World War II, the value of the asset remained stable and was fixed at $35 under the Bretton Woods system, the same level as during World War I.

 In 1971, the United States abandoned the gold standard, which led to floating exchange rates and an increase in the price of gold. In the late 1970s and early 1980s, the price exceeded the $800 mark per troy ounce due to geopolitical tensions, inflation, and a reduction in gold production. From the 1980s to the 2000s, the price of gold declined and fluctuated within a range of approximately $250 to $500.

 Since the early 2000s, there has been a significant increase in the price of gold due to geopolitical events, financial instability, and inflationary pressures. In August 2020, amidst the COVID-19 pandemic and economic uncertainty, the price of gold surpassed the $2,000 mark per troy ounce for the first time. However, following this peak, it experienced a decline due to expectations of economic recovery, tightening monetary policies by central banks, rising interest rates, and various other factors.

A subsequent unsuccessful attempt to break above the $2,000 resistance level occurred in March 2022. Finally, the third surge occurred in May of this year.

Why Gold Prices Are Rising

So, what contributes to the value of gold and why does its price rise?

- Rarity and Limited Supply: Gold is a rare metal, and its extraction is limited and requires significant efforts and resources.
- Durability and Longevity: Gold is highly resistant to wear and corrosion. It retains its physical properties over time, making it suitable for long-term storage and attractive for use in jewellery and various industries.
- Store of Value: Gold has long been considered a store of value. It can preserve its purchasing power over extended periods, serving as a hedge against inflation and the instability of stocks and currencies.
- Liquidity and Recognizability: Gold is universally recognized and accepted as an asset. It can be easily exchanged for cash or used as a medium of payment in different countries and cultures.
- These factors contribute to the desirability and demand for gold, thus driving its price upward.

Factors Influencing Gold Prices

Let's delve into the factors that influence the price of gold. It's important to note that there is no direct correlation between the price of gold and each of these factors individually. Market forecasts and the combination of these factors also play a role in determining gold prices. For example, the recent surge in XAU/USD can be attributed to expectations of a reversal in the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike cycle, potential U.S. debt default, as well as geopolitical and economic instability due to Russia's armed actions in Ukraine. Now, let's explore the key factors:

- Economic Conditions: The global economic situation, including GDP growth or decline, unemployment, and overall financial stability, can impact gold prices. Uncertainty in the markets or a recession, for instance, may increase demand for gold as a risk-free asset.
- Geopolitical Events: Political and geopolitical events such as armed conflicts, wars, terrorist acts, sanctions, elections, etc., can cause market instability and uncertainty, leading to an increased demand for gold as a safe haven.
- Inflation: The level of inflation plays a crucial role in determining the value of gold. When inflation rises, the price of gold typically follows suit as investors seek protection against the devaluation of money.
- Central Banks: Actions taken by central banks, including changes in interest rates, can influence gold prices. For example, a decrease in interest rates may stimulate demand for gold as holding it becomes comparatively more attractive than other assets.
- Currency Movements: Fluctuations in exchange rates between different countries can also impact the price of gold. If the currency of a gold-producing country weakens against other currencies, the price of gold in that currency may increase, stimulating exports and raising the demand for gold.
- Investment Demand: Investment demand includes the purchase of gold bars, coins, and futures market transactions. Demand typically rises when trust in fiat currencies weakens.
- It's important to consider the interplay of these factors and market expectations when assessing the price of gold.

Forecast: Will the Price of Gold Rise?

When it comes to forecasts, it's important to note that they are mere assumptions based on available information and analysis. As mentioned before, the gold market is complex and subject to the influence of multiple factors. Any forecasts are subjective assessments and can change depending on economic and geopolitical situations, as well as changes in market demand and supply. However, it should be acknowledged that some forecasts have proven to be relatively accurate.

 Here are a few examples of such forecasts made before September 2021. In May 2021, analysts at Goldman Sachs predicted that the price of gold would reach $2,000 per troy ounce by 2024. Two months later, their counterparts at Bank of America made the exact same forecast. The touch of this resistance level occurred one year earlier. However, whether XAU/USD will be able to sustainably establish itself above this level, turning it from resistance to support, remains to be seen.

Currently, Goldman Sachs strategists are indicating a target of $2,200. Meanwhile, the Swiss financial holding UBS believes that the price of gold may rise to $2,100 by the end of 2023 and to $2,200 by March 2024. (It's worth noting that their previous forecast projected a peak of $2,400 for this year). Similar figures are mentioned by analysts at the Economic Forecasting Agency, who believe that the price of gold may even exceed $2,400, but this is expected to occur only in 2027.

***

At the beginning of this overview, we raised the question of whether gold is a protective asset. In his early statements, Warren Buffett expressed scepticism about investing in gold, referring to it as an unproductive asset that doesn't generate income. However, looking at the chart, it becomes clear that he was mistaken. Even the legendary investor himself acknowledged this and later expressed a positive attitude towards gold as a store of value. Prominent financier George Soros also recognized gold as a diversification asset that provides protection against inflation and political instability. Ray Dalio, the founder of investment firm Bridgewater Associates, recommended including this precious metal in one's portfolio.

Most likely, they are all correct, and in the foreseeable future, gold will retain its role as a primary capital preserver. However, it is always important to remember that the effectiveness of any investment depends on the entry point. If the timing of a trade is chosen incorrectly, it is possible that your deposit may start to decrease. Nevertheless, in the case of gold, the probability of XAU/USD rising again is significantly higher than that of many fiat currencies. To withstand drawdowns and ultimately achieve profit, sound money management, as well as time and patience, are necessary.
 

NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/

[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for June 19 - 23, 2023

EUR/USD: The Euro's Victory Over the Dollar

The key events of the past week were the meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US Federal Reserve on Wednesday, June 14, and the European Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee on Thursday, June 15. The outcome of these meetings resulted in a decisive victory for the euro over the dollar.

During the COVID19 pandemic, the Federal Reserve printed and released a large amount of cheap money into the market. This action spurred inflation, which ultimately reached its highest level in the last 40 years. With the pandemic over, the American regulator completely reversed its monetary policy, shifting from Quantitative Easing (QE) to Quantitative Tightening (QT). Over the course of the last ten meetings, in an attempt to curb inflation, the Fed raised the key interest rate, which ultimately reached 5.25%: the highest level since 2006.

Data published on Tuesday, June 13, showed that the core inflation (CPI) in May was 5.3% (year-on-year) after 5.5% a month earlier. This is, of course, progress, but very slight, and the target value of 2.0% is still far off. However, in an effort to avoid economic problems and the continuation of the banking crisis, the Federal Reserve leaders at their meeting decided to keep the interest rate unchanged.

This was not a surprise to the market. Both the vice president of the Federal Reserve, Philip Jefferson, and the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Patrick Harker, talked about the need for a pause in the monetary tightening process. Even the head of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, mentioned the possibility of a break. As a result, on the eve of the meeting, the likelihood of the rate remaining at the previous level was estimated by market participants at 95%.

Moreover, data published on Thursday, June 15, showed that industrial production in the US fell by 0.2% in May, and the number of unemployment benefit claims stubbornly remains at the previous level of 262K. This weak statistics increased the market's expectations that the current Fed pause might be extended for a longer period. As for the long-term forecasts published by the FOMC, the peak rate is seen by the committee members at 5.60%, after which a decrease should follow: in a one-year perspective to 4.60%, in a two-year perspective to 3.40%, and then further down to 2.50%.

So, while the Federal Reserve left borrowing costs unchanged at its June meeting, the European Central Bank raised it by 25 basis points (b.p.) - from 3.75% to 4.00%. Furthermore, ECB President Christine Lagarde noted that the tightening of monetary policy will continue in July. Additionally, inflation forecasts were revised upwards due to rising wages and high energy prices. Based on this, the market expects a 25 b.p. rate hike not only next month but also in September. The ECB's hawkish stance caused a surge in German government bond yields, while U.S. security yields conversely dropped. As a result, the Dollar Index (DXY) continued its decline, and EUR/USD continued to build on its bullish impulse formed earlier in the week. If on Monday, June 12th, it was trading at 1.0732, by June 16th it had reached 1.0970, closely approaching the psychologically important level of 1.1000.

EUR/USD concluded the five-day period at 1.0940. As for near-term prospects, at the time of writing this review on the evening of June 16, most analysts (65%) expect the continuation of its upward trend, 25% voted for the pair's fall, and 10% took a neutral position. Among trend indicators on D1, 100% are in favour of the bulls, and among oscillators, 90% are in the green, although a third of them are signalling overbought conditions. The remaining 10% are in the red. The pair's nearest support is located around 1.0895-1.0925, then 1.0865, 1.0790-1.0800, 1.0745, 1.0670, and finally, the May 31 low of 1.0635. The bulls will encounter resistance in the area of 1.0970-1.0985, then 1.1045, and 1.1090-1.1110.

Notable dates on the calendar for the upcoming week include June 21 and 22, which are set for the testimony of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell before Congress. Fresh unemployment data from the US will also be released on Thursday. At the end of the work week, preliminary Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) figures for both Germany and the Eurozone as a whole, as well as for the US services sector, will be revealed. In addition, traders should note that Monday, June 19, is a public holiday in the United States: Juneteenth.

GBP/USD: The Pair's Growth May Continue

Taking advantage of the weakening dollar, the pound actively strengthened its position throughout the past week. Having bounced off the local low of 1.2486 on Monday, GBP/USD soared by 362 points on Friday and reached a high of 1.2848. The week ended slightly lower: at the level of 1.2822. The British currency last felt this good over a year ago, in April 2022.

Bullish investor sentiment was also supported by the expectation that the Bank of England (BoE) will raise its rate from 4.50% to 4.75% at its meeting on Thursday, June 22, accompanying this decision with hawkish rhetoric and promises to continue tightening its monetary policy.

As a result, economists at Scotiabank expect that GBP/USD may soon rise to 1.3000. They are joined in this prediction by their colleagues from ING, the largest banking group in the Netherlands. "Looking at the charts," they write, "it seems that there are no significant levels between current levels and 1.3000, which suggests that the latter is not far off."

Overall, the median forecast from analysts appears more neutral. Bullish sentiment is supported by 50% of experts, 40% favor bears, and 10% prefer to refrain from comments. As for technical analysis, 100% of both trend indicators and oscillators point north, but a quarter of the oscillators are in the overbought zone. If the pair moves south, support levels and zones await it – 1.2685-1.2700, 1.2570, 1.2480-1.2510, 1.2330-1.2350, 1.2275, 1.2200-1.2210. In case of the pair's growth, it will meet resistance at levels 1.2940, 1.3000, 1.3050 and 1.3185-1.3210.

Next week, on the eve of the aforementioned meeting of the Bank of England, on Wednesday, June 21, inflation statistics will be released in the United Kingdom. It is expected that it will show a decrease in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) from 8.7% to 8.5%. However, such a slight drop will likely not deter the BoE in its hawkish stance. In addition, attention should be paid to Friday, June 23, when the preliminary Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) value will be published in the UK. Since the PMI for Germany, the Eurozone, and the US will also be announced on this day, it will vividly illustrate and allow a comparison of the state of their economies.

USD/JPY: The Pair Yearns to Return to Earth, But Can't

It would have been logical to assume that as a result of the fall in the US Dollar Index (DXY) and US Treasury bond yields, the Japanese currency would strengthen its position and USD/JPY would finally change course: instead of flying to the Moon, it would start landing on Earth. Such a movement even appeared on Thursday, June 15. But it only lasted one day: until the meeting of the Bank of Japan (BoJ), at which it again maintained the policy rate at the negative level of -0.1%. (We recall that the Japanese Central Bank has not changed this rate since January 2016). In addition, as part of the new decision, the regulator announced that it also plans to buy a "necessary" amount of government bonds and continue to target the yield of 10-year securities at a level close to zero.

Economists at MUFG Bank believe that the increasing divergence in monetary policy between the Bank of Japan and other major central banks is a recipe for further yen weakening. "The expansion of yield spreads between Japan and foreign countries, coupled with the decrease in currency exchange rate volatility and rates [...] contributes to the yen becoming more undervalued," write MUFG analysts.

Their colleagues at Commerzbank believe that if the Federal Reserve signals two potential new dollar rate increases, the yen's decline will continue. According to specialists from the French financial conglomerate Societe Generale, if another rate hike occurs in the US in July, USD/JPY could rise to 145.00.

Only hopes that the BoJ will eventually take the first step towards ending its ultra-loose monetary policy can alleviate pressure on the Japanese currency. For example, economists at BNP Paribas write that "although we have revised our USD/JPY forecasts upwards considering the higher terminal rate of the Fed and a later expansion of the Bank of Japan's YCC, we continue to forecast a downward trend in USD/JPY". They target levels of 130.00 by the end of this year and 123.00 by the end of 2024.

Having fixed a local high at 141.89, the pair ended the past five-day period at 141.82. 70% of analysts expect that the weakening DXY will soon cause a correction of the pair to the south, while the remaining 30% set their goal to reach the height of 143.00. 100% of trend indicators on D1 also look up. Among the oscillators, 90% are also pointing up (a third signals the pair's overbought condition), the remaining 10% are painted in a neutral grey color. The nearest support level is located in the 1.4140 zone, followed by 140.90-141.00, 1.4060, 139.45,1.3875-1.3905, 137.50. The nearest resistance is 142.20, then the bulls will need to overcome barriers at levels 1.4300, 143.50 and 144.90-145.10. And from there it's not far to the October 2022 high of 151.95.

No significant economic information related to the Japanese economy is expected to be released in the upcoming week. The release of the report on the last Bank of Japan meeting on Wednesday, June 21, could be an exception, but market participants are unlikely to find anything new in it: everything has already been said at the press conference on June 16.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: The Fed and ECB Prevent Bitcoin Catastrophe

BTC/USD climbed to the $30,989 mark on April 14, its highest value since June 2022. Since then, the market has been dominated by bearish sentiment for nine weeks in a row. The past week was no exception and did not bring joy to investors. As noted by Michael Van De Poppe, founder of venture company Eight, "this is not the situation you would want to see." The expert noted that breaking support in the form of the 200-week moving average (200WMA) indicates a continuation of the downtrend.

This scenario seemed obvious after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filed lawsuits against Binance and Coinbase, accusing the platforms of selling unregistered assets. Meanwhile, in court documents, the SEC named more than a dozen tokens as securities. According to experts, a victory for the regulator could lead to the delisting of these coins and limit the potential development of their blockchains. In total, over 60 coins have already made it onto the regulator's blacklist.

The court rejected the SEC's request to freeze the assets of Binance's American division last week. However, as some observers believe, the battle is far from over. It's worth noting that Gary Gensler, the head of the regulator, has recently stated that cryptocurrencies, in essence, are not needed at all. Quote: "We don't need more digital currency. We already have digital currency. It's called the U.S. dollar. It's called the euro or the yen. Now they are all digital.".

According to strategists at JPMorgan, US bitcoin exchanges are highly likely to be forced to register with the SEC as brokers, and all cryptocurrencies will be classified as securities. While many see this as the beginning of the end for the entire industry, there are optimists. For instance, JPMorgan believes that new rules "will free the industry from bad practices and dishonest players, which in turn is necessary for the industry to mature and see more active institutional participation."

Adam Back, the CEO of Blockstream, tried to calm market participants. Considered one of the leading figures in modern cryptography and the crypto industry, his argument was directly opposed to JPMorgan's. This prominent expert stated that the crypto market is like water, flowing and finding detours when encountering obstacles. So, if any major crypto exchange operating in the US stops servicing its clients due to regulatory pressure, the industry will ultimately find a way out. Bitcoin traders will simply move to other jurisdictions and start trading in other currencies. And it seems that Adam Back is right: the exodus from the US is already underway. According to data from the analytical platform Glassnode, the share of American players has dropped by 11% since mid-2022. At the same time, it has grown by 9.9% in the Asian region.

It's worth noting that many influencers, while predicting a dismal end for cryptocurrencies, often exclude bitcoin from their projections. For instance, Into The Cryptoverse founder Benjamin Cowen stated that liquidity in the crypto market has long since dried up, and altcoins are "due for a reckoning, while bitcoin's dominance will continue to grow." A similar sentiment was expressed by well-known trader Gareth Soloway, who said he has always compared the crypto market to the dotcom bubble. According to him, the collapse that occurred in the early 2000s will repeat in this industry. He assured that "the system needs to be cleared of trash" to flourish, stating that 95% of all tokens "will be striving towards zero."

Peter Brandt, often called the "Mysterious Wizard of the Market," also joined the chorus praising bitcoin. This legendary trader and analyst also metaphorically "buried" all coins, with the exception of bitcoin. "Bitcoin is the only cryptocurrency that will manage to finish this marathon. All others, including ethereum, are fakes or scams," he wrote. Many members of the crypto community were unsettled by the respected analyst's grouping of ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency by capitalization, together with fraudulent projects. In response, Brandt stated that "ETH will likely survive, but the true legacy is BTC."

ARK Invest CEO Cathy Wood has doubled down on her bitcoin forecast, stating that the target of $1 million per coin will be realized. According to Wood, the current global economic environment increases her confidence in the flagship cryptocurrency. She stated, "The more uncertainty and volatility there is in the global economy, the more our confidence in bitcoin grows, which has been and remains a hedge against inflation."

CEO and founder of Galaxy Digital, Mike Novogratz, also expects support from the global economy. Specifically, the billionaire predicts that the Federal Reserve will begin lowering interest rates in October, leading to a sharp increase in liquidity inflows into the crypto market. Dan Tapiero, co-founder of 10T Holdings and Gold Bullion International, expressed a more specific outlook, forecasting an "explosive" rally. He stated, "We will likely see new highs in the second half of 2024 and in 2025. And I think during this bull phase, the overall market capitalization of the crypto market will reach $6-8 trillion."

Despite optimistic long-term forecasts, the outlook for the near future does not inspire investors. Bloomberg strategist Mike McGlone does not rule out a significant decline in the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Composite Index, which reflects the performance of leading digital currencies. In an analytical note prepared for investors, he warned of a dominant bearish trend for at least the next few months. Fiona Cincotta, a strategist at City Bank, also cautioned that a drop in the price of bitcoin below the strong support level of $25,000 could further activate sellers and trigger a more pronounced decline in prices.

PlanB, an analyst and the author of the well-known Stock-to-Flow (S2F) forecasting model, asked his 1.8 million followers to provide their Bitcoin price predictions for the end of June. Many responded that Bitcoin would close the first month of summer near the $24,000-25,000 levels. Only a small portion of respondents indicated the potential for further growth above $30,000. Another expert with the username PROFIT BLUE believes that BTC will not be able to sustain itself in the $25,000 range, and the next target for the cryptocurrency will be the $23,700 level. The most pessimistic forecast came from analyst WhaleWire, who did not rule out the coin revisiting its cyclical low. According to WhaleWire, BTC is preparing for a move towards $12,000. The breakthrough of the $15,000 level, WhaleWire is confident, will occur during this summer.

The minimum for the past seven days and the last three months was recorded at $24,791. The main cryptocurrency was saved from further decline by the weakening US dollar, following the decisions of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank regarding interest rates. At the time of writing the review, on the evening of Friday, June 16, BTC/USD recovered all of its losses for the week and is trading at around $26,400. The total market capitalization of the crypto market stands at $1.064 trillion ($1.102 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has remained in the Neutral zone, although it has decreased from 50 to 47 points over the past seven days.
 

NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/

[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews of the Week

– Bitcoin experienced an unexpected surge from June 15 to 21, smashing through resistance levels of $25,000 and $26,500, and ultimately peaking at $29,000. This represents an impressive six-day growth of approximately 17%. Following in the footsteps of this leading cryptocurrency, altcoins also witnessed similar uptrends. For instance, Ethereum recorded a roughly 12% appreciation.
This notable ascent cannot be attributed to a single catalyst. Rather, bitcoin's rise coincided with a sequence of positive developments within the industry. Investment heavyweight BlackRock submitted a proposal for a spot bitcoin trust, aimed at streamlining institutional entrance into the crypto market. Deutsche Bank, one of Germany's most formidable financial conglomerates, declared its foray into the digital asset sector, taking on cryptocurrency storage duties. Wall Street powerhouses, Citadel and Fidelity, joined forces to launch a decentralized crypto exchange named EDX Markets on June 20th. Invesco, another investment juggernaut, overseeing $1.4 trillion in assets, has lodged an application to roll out a spot Bitcoin ETF. MicroStrategy has even speculated that such a spot Bitcoin ETF could absorb trillions of dollars. One additional factor potentially fuelling bitcoin's rise could be the minting of a fresh batch of Tether stablecoins (USDT).

– It's worth noting that the surge of the flagship cryptocurrency occurred despite the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) crackdown on the digital market. Recall that the SEC previously filed lawsuits against Binance and Coinbase, accusing the platforms of selling unregistered assets. In court documents, the SEC classified more than a dozen tokens as securities. Experts believe that a victory for the regulator could lead to the delisting of these coins and limit the potential development of their blockchains. In total, over 60 coins have already made it onto the regulator's blacklist.
Preston Pysh, a popular author on investment books, believes that this regulatory pressure was part of a planned campaign. The goal being to give major players the opportunity to enter the digital asset market under favourable conditions. He substantiated his perspective with the daring moves made by Wall Street giants, as previously mentioned.

– TV host and billionaire Mark Cuban and former SEC executive John Reed Stark discussed the ongoing crackdown on the crypto industry. Stark believes the SEC's actions are necessary. According to him, the regulator is trying to protect investors from potential fraud and scams in this sector. He's also convinced that the SEC's actions will ultimately benefit the industry, by weeding out dishonest participants and increasing transparency.
As for Mark Cuban, he drew a comparison to the early days of the internet. In the billionaire's view, "90% of blockchain companies will fail. 99% of tokens will fail. Just like 99% of early internet companies."

– El Salvador could potentially clear its debts through bitcoin and geothermal cryptocurrency mining. This viewpoint was expressed by Max Keiser, the CEO of Volcano Energy. The former trader and television host moved to El Salvador in 2022 and now serves as an advisor to President Nayib Bukele. Keiser asserts that, owing to its legal framework regarding cryptocurrency and energy resources, El Salvador could become a global centre for bitcoin mining. This could create new jobs, boost the country's GDP, and enable it to settle its debts with creditors.
As for Volcano Energy itself, Keiser believes that the company's market capitalization will grow to $50 billion, exceeding El Salvador's GDP, which is estimated at $29 billion. According to him, this growth will be driven by bitcoin's price rising to $1 million per coin.

– Author of "Rich Dad, Poor Dad," Robert Kiyosaki, is convinced that the crisis in the banking sector is far from over. Last week, he warned of an impending crash in the real estate sector. According to the expert, California-based mortgage lender LoanDepot is already on the brink of bankruptcy, and the looming real estate market crash could likely be far worse than the 2008 crisis. In light of this situation, Kiyosaki once again advised his followers to prepare for disaster by accumulating precious metals and bitcoin.

– Galaxy Digital's CEO, Mike Novogratz, has compared the recent crypto crash to the collapse of Lehman Brothers during the financial crisis of 2008-2009. The billionaire believes that the industry needs to be legalized. In that case, it will become transparent, and regulators will be able to ensure investor safety. As it stands, regulators lack sufficient levers to control the movement of funds in digital currencies. Novogratz made these remarks at a summit organized by Bloomberg.
The CEO of Galaxy Digital also believes that in the fight against inflation, demand for alternative instruments will intensify, one of which is bitcoin. He foresees that the price of bitcoin will reach $500,000 in the long term.

– Placeholder venture partner Chris Burniske is known for accurately predicting the crypto bottom in 2022. He also noted that cryptocurrencies often surge when the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) takes a breather. A cooling down in stocks triggers a capital flow into riskier assets, prompting a bullish rally for BTC.
In this context, Burniske referenced data from Glassnode founders Jan Happel and Yann Allemann. According to their observations, starting from 2019, bitcoin has shown strong growth whenever the NDX showed signs of bullish exhaustion. Currently, bitcoin is just a few steps away from outperforming the NDX again, as the index is nearing its local peak. 

– Popular investor and founder of venture firm Eight, Michael Van De Poppe, believes that the market situation makes the realization of negative BTC forecasts impossible, particularly those predicting a drop in cryptocurrency to $12,000. In his opinion, investors should now be "filling their pockets" in anticipation of further growth.

– BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes believes that U.S. authorities are not only hindering the development of the blockchain industry but are also creating conditions for it to shift to China. Last week, he published an article criticizing the U.S. crackdown on the industry. In his article, Hayes emphasized that China is more flexible than the U.S. and allows investors to enter the crypto sphere through platforms registered in Hong Kong. This metropolis is beginning to accumulate significant capital, which positively affects its financial development. Conversely, the American market is losing appeal, forcing companies and funds to leave.

– Former Coinbase CTO, Balaji Srinivasan, has issued a stark warning. He believes that since Apple, Microsoft, and Google have access to all user data on their devices, including private wallet keys, they could assist authorities in confiscating cryptocurrency from its owners if required. He argues that it would only take permission from the governments of G7 countries and China to do this. Srinivasan considers such permission quite possible, as authorities are interested in the development of CBDCs - digital currencies managed by central banks - and the elimination of their competitors in the form of Bitcoin and various altcoins.

– Prominent analyst Benjamin Cowen has warned of a potential fall in Ethereum compared to the leading cryptocurrency. ETH/BTC could plummet by 45% from its current value of 0.066 BTC. "As far as I can tell from the chart," he wrote, "we constantly see lower peaks in ETH/BTC, at least in the short term. However, in the longer term, we see even lower peaks in 2017 (0.036 BTC). And this is where the level of recovery might begin." At the same time, the analyst notes that the likelihood of a "bull rally" in this pair without a downward correction is quite low - first, the "bears" need to complete this movement. "Only then will we be able to assess the prospects for ETH/BTC," Cowen concluded.

– For the first time since 2021, BTC's market dominance has approached 50%. This means that half of the entire market capitalization is attributed to a single asset. The index last rose this high two years ago, in May 2021. The current rise is associated with SEC pressure on altcoins and the application for a spot Bitcoin trust by BlackRock.
MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor believes that bitcoin's dominance will reach 80% in the coming years. There are now about 25,000 tokens of varying quality in the market, and this confuses large investors. After the SEC helps remove excess assets, large capital will be more willing to invest in the leading cryptocurrency.

– Cybersecurity analysts have discovered that 95% of users of hacking software for stealing NFTs are schoolchildren. They are responsible for stealing tokens worth $73 million. They then spent these assets on purchasing skins in Roblox, branded items, food delivery, and gambling. According to The Block, high school students do this without fully realizing the crime. They perceive the theft as a game. The peak activity of young criminals occurs during the summer holidays when they have more free time.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/

[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for June 26 - 30, 2023

EUR/USD: Officials' Words Drive the Markets

Just a reminder, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US Federal Reserve decided on Wednesday, June 14 to pause the process of monetary tightening and left the interest rate unchanged at 5.25%. The following day, on Thursday, June 15, the European Central Bank (ECB) raised the euro interest rate by 25 basis points from 3.75% to 4.00%. ECB President Christine Lagarde noted that the tightening of credit and monetary policy would continue in July.

The firm rhetoric was supported by other ECB representatives. According to comments from ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn, the underlying inflation in the Eurozone is declining too slowly, necessitating additional efforts from the regulator to stabilize prices. The intentions of the regulator to continue raising rates were also confirmed by ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane and ECB Governing Council member Isabel Schnabel. In their view, the regulator has significant work to do before inflation stabilizes around 2%. (According to the latest data, annual inflation in the Eurozone remained at 6.1%, and the Core Consumer Price Index stood at 5.3%).

Against the backdrop of these hawkish statements from European officials, the markets concluded that at least two more rate hikes should be expected for the euro, in July and September, each by 25 basis points. This continued to push the euro currency higher, and EUR/USD reached a peak at 1.1011 on Thursday, June 22.

However, the financial world doesn't revolve solely around the ECB. On June 21 and 22, market participants' attention was focused on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's semi-annual testimony before the U.S. Congress. While the overall rhetoric was nearly identical to the press conference on June 14, this time Powell placed more emphasis on the prospects of further rate hikes in the near future. This sentiment became particularly evident on the second day of his testimony. The hawkish stance of the Fed Chair and the market's risk-averse atmosphere helped the American currency outperform its competitors. On Thursday, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) reversed its course and started moving upwards again, while EUR/USD declined.

The growing concerns of a recession in the Eurozone also played against the euro. On Friday, June 23, the European currency came under significant bearish pressure as data from Germany and the Eurozone indicated that business activity (PMI) in the manufacturing sector continued to decline at an accelerated pace. Following the release of the PMI statistics, according to Reuters calculations, the likelihood of the ECB's final rate reaching 4.25% decreased to nearly 0%, and EUR/USD reached a local minimum at the level of 1.0844.

However, the situation for the European currency is not as dire, at least in the medium term. For instance, economists at ANZ (The Australia and New Zealand Banking Group) believe that while the Federal Reserve may reduce its key interest rate by 20 basis points by the end of the year, market expectations suggest that the ECB will not lower its rates until early 2024. As a result, the ECB's easing cycle will be later and less significant compared to the Fed's, which is favorable for the euro. Consequently, in Q3, EUR/USD could rise to 1.1200. Overall, according to ANZ, the exchange rates are expected to fluctuate in the range of 1.0500 to 1.1400 throughout 2023.

After the release of PMI data for the manufacturing and services sectors in the United States, EUR/USD concluded the five-day period at 1.0893. As for the immediate prospects, at the time of writing this review on the evening of June 24, the forecast appears highly uncertain: 45% of analysts favored a decline in the pair, while an equal percentage expected its growth, and the remaining 10% adopted a neutral position. Among the oscillators on the daily timeframe, 90% lean towards bullish signals, while 10% remain neutral-grey. Regarding the trend indicators, 80% are coloured green, while 20% are in red. The nearest support levels for the pair are located around 1.0865, followed by 1.0790-1.0800, 1.0745, 1.0670, and finally the May 31 low at 1.0635. Bulls will encounter resistance around 1.0900-1.0925, followed by 1.0960-1.0985, 1.1010, and 1.1045, with further resistance at 1.1090-1.1110.

The upcoming week brings a cascade of macroeconomic data from the United States. We can expect housing market data on Tuesday, June 27, as well as the release of durable goods orders and capital goods orders. Additionally, the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) from the Conference Board, a leading indicator, will be announced. The results of the country's bank stress tests will be revealed on the following day, Wednesday, June 28, which is particularly interesting given the banking crisis that followed the Fed's interest rate hikes. Furthermore, on the same day, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will deliver a speech. Thursday will bring labour market statistics and GDP data for the country. Finally, on Friday, June 30, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, a key measure of inflation, will be released for US residents. As for the Eurozone economy, preliminary inflation figures (CPI) for Germany and the Eurozone as a whole, which will be published on June 29 and 30, respectively, are of interest.

GBP/USD: Bank of England's Delayed Surprise

The economic data released during the past week concerning the UK appeared quite mixed. A significant inflation indicator, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), remained unchanged for the month, standing at 8.7% YoY, surpassing market expectations of 8.4%. Retail sales showed a positive outlook as they unexpectedly grew by 0.3% for the month, contrary to the anticipated decline of -0.2% and the previous value of 0.5%. The core retail sales, excluding automotive fuel, increased by 0.1% against the negative forecast of -0.3% and the previous month's 0.7%. However, the business activity indicators in the country were disappointing. The preliminary Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decreased to 53.7 in June, compared to the expected 54.8. The Manufacturing PMI also fell short of expectations, dropping from 47.1 to 46.2 (forecast: 46..

The inflation data released on June 21 not only exceeded market expectations but also surpassed the Bank of England's (BoE) own forecasts. Against this backdrop, the central bank surprised the markets during its meeting on Thursday, June 22, by raising the base rate not by 25 basis points but by 50 basis points, bringing it to 5.00%.

Following conventional logic, such a move should have significantly supported the British currency. However, that was not the case. GBP/USD initially jumped 60 pips to 1.2841 within 10 minutes of the BoE decision, but then declined by over 100 pips to 1.2737. Analysts believe that the initial upward movement was driven by news headline-reactive algorithmic trading, but the bullish momentum was later dampened as sellers encountered resistance near 14-month highs recorded on June 16.

Strategists from the largest banking group in the Netherlands, ING, believe that a 150 basis point rate hike was already priced in before the Central bank meeting. The 50-basis point increase has occurred, and now markets are anticipating a further 100 basis point rise to 6.00%. Along with the aggressive rate hike, market speculation is growing that the Bank of England, in order to avoid an economic collapse, may be compelled to begin easing its monetary policy starting from the summer of 2024 (or even earlier).

Economists at Commerzbank argue that the BoE started raising the key rate too late and too slowly, putting itself in a position of playing catch-up. According to their view, the regulator is chasing inflation rather than actively combating it through monetary policy, which could have a negative impact on the British currency.

However, different opinions exist. Scotiabank economists, for example, anticipate that GBP/USD could rise to 1.3000 in the near future. Colleagues at ING share this view, stating, "Looking at the charts, it seems that there are no significant levels between current levels and 1.3000, which suggests that the latter is not far away."

GBP/USD ended the past week at the level of 1.2714. Given the current volatility, theoretically, it could cover the remaining distance to 1.3000 in just a few weeks or even days. Currently, 45% of surveyed experts support this scenario, while 25% hold the opposite view, and 30% prefer to refrain from commenting. In terms of technical analysis, both oscillators and trend indicators on the daily timeframe mirror the readings of their counterparts for EUR/USD. In the event of a southward movement in the pair, it will encounter support levels and zones at 1.2685-1.2700, 1.2625, 1.2570, 1.2480-1.2510, 1.2330-1.2350, 1.2275, and 1.2200-1.2210. In the case of an upward movement, the pair will face resistance levels at 1.2760, 1.2800-1.2815, 1.2850, 1.2940, 1.3000, 1.3050, and 1.3185-1.3210.

One notable event in the upcoming week's calendar is Friday, June 30, when the GDP data for the United Kingdom will be released.

USD/JPY: The Journey to the Moon Continues

We issued a "Ticket to the Moon" for USD/JPY a few weeks ago, and it continues to be in effect. The pair reached a height of 143.86 last week. According to Commerzbank, "the yen's weakness is gradually taking on a dramatic character." Economists at Singapore's United Overseas Bank (UOB) forecast that the dollar is likely to continue rising in the next 1-3 weeks. They state, "The next significant level is 144.00. It is still too early to determine whether the dollar's strength [...] will break above this barrier. On the other hand, our strong support level has been adjusted to 141.60 from 141.00."

Economists at MUFG Bank believe that the increasing divergence in monetary policy between the Bank of Japan and other major central banks is a recipe for further weakening of the yen. "The widening yield differentials between Japan and foreign countries, along with the reduction in currency and rate volatility, contribute to the yen becoming increasingly undervalued," write analysts at MUFG. According to their counterparts at the French financial conglomerate Societe Generale, if there is another interest rate hike in the United States in July, the USD/JPY pair could rise to 145.00.

It is clear that the yen is suffering not only from the persistently "dovish" stance of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) but also from the overall rise in global yields. The pressure on the Japanese currency can only be alleviated by the hope that the BoJ will eventually take the first step towards ending its ultra-loose monetary policy. For instance, economists at Danske Bank hope that USD/JPY exchange rate will fall below 130.00 within a 6–12-month horizon. Similar forecasts are made by strategists at BNP Paribas, with targets of 130.00 by the end of the current year and 123.00 by the end of 2024.

As for the Japanese government and the Bank of Japan, it seems that they are not yet ready for any significant changes. Last week, Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki stated that while they closely monitor currency movements, they have no intention of commenting on them. He added that "sharp currency movements are undesirable" and that "currency rates should be determined by the market, reflecting fundamental indicators." However, it appears to us that the head of the finance ministry is being deceptive. We only need to recall the unexpected currency interventions carried out by the Bank of Japan last year, prompted by the Ministry of Finance. Through these interventions, the yen was able to strengthen against the dollar by over 1,500 pips. Is it not possible for a similar surprise to occur now?

After reaching another high at 143.86, the pair concluded the past five-day period at 143.71. At the time of writing this review, 60% of analysts anticipate that the yen will recover at least some of its losses and push the pair lower, while 30% of experts point to the west. Although the number of supporters for pair growth this time stands at just 10%, it's worth noting that even the minority can be right. Moreover, it is supported by technical analysis, as all 100% of trend indicators and oscillators on the daily timeframe point upwards. However, a quarter of the oscillators actively signal overbought conditions for the pair. The nearest support level is located in the 143.00-143.20 zone, followed by 142.20, 1.4140, 140.90-141.00, 1.4060, 139.85, 1.3875-1.3905, 138.30, and 137.50. The closest resistance is at 143.85, and then bulls will need to overcome barriers at 144.90-145.30, 146.85-147.15, 148.85, and potentially reach the October 2022 high at 151.95.

There is no significant economic information related to the Japanese economy expected to be released during the upcoming week.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Influencers Betting on Bitcoin

Bears dominated the crypto market for nine consecutive weeks. However, the situation abruptly changed on June 15 as bitcoin unexpectedly demonstrated a rapid growth. It broke through resistance levels at $25,000, $26,500, and surpassed $30,000, reaching a peak of $31,388 on June 23. The increase during these days amounted to over 26%. Altcoins also followed bitcoin's upward trend, with ethereum gaining approximately 19% in weight.

Bitcoin's surge was fuelled by a series of positive news. The main highlight was the announcement that investment giant BlackRock filed an application to launch a spot bitcoin trust, aiming to simplify institutional access to the crypto market. However, this news wasn't the only one. One of Germany's largest financial conglomerates, Deutsche Bank, declared its entry into the digital asset market and its involvement in cryptocurrency custody services. Wall Street financial giants Citadel and Fidelity joined forces to launch a decentralized crypto exchange called EDX Markets on June 20. Another investment giant, Invesco, which manages assets worth $1.4 trillion, filed an application for a spot Bitcoin ETF. (MicroStrategy believes that such an ETF could attract trillions of dollars). Lastly, the issuance of a new batch of Tether (USDT) stablecoins may have also contributed to the growth of BTC/USD.

It is worth noting that the surge of the flagship cryptocurrency occurred despite the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) crackdown on the digital market. Previously, the SEC filed lawsuits against Binance and Coinbase, accusing the platforms of selling unregistered securities. In the court documents, the Commission classified over a dozen tokens as securities. According to experts, a victory for the regulator could lead to the delisting of these coins and restrict the potential development of their blockchains. The regulator has already included over 60 coins on its blacklist.

Preston Pysh, the author of popular investment books, believes that the regulatory pressure was a planned campaign. Its aim is to provide major players with the opportunity to enter the digital asset market under favourable conditions. He supports his viewpoint with the bold moves made by Wall Street giants, as mentioned earlier.

The TV host and billionaire, Mark Cuban, and former SEC executive, John Reed Stark, discussed the ongoing crackdown on the crypto industry. Stark believes that the actions taken by the SEC are necessary. According to him, the regulator is trying to protect investors from potential fraud and scams in this sector. He is also convinced that the SEC's actions will ultimately benefit the industry by filtering out dishonest participants and increasing transparency. As for Mark Cuban, he drew parallels with the early days of the internet. In the billionaire's opinion, "90% of blockchain companies will fail. 99% of tokens will fail. Just like 99% of early internet companies."

It is worth noting that many influencers are skeptical about cryptocurrencies and are putting bitcoin aside. We have already quoted Benjamin Cowen, the founder of Into The Cryptoverse, who believes that altcoins "will face reckoning while bitcoin dominance continues to grow." A similar sentiment was expressed by renowned trader Gareth Soloway, who stated that he has always compared the crypto market to the dot-com bubble. According to him, a collapse similar to the early 2000s will occur in this industry. Soloway reassured that "the system needs to be cleared of junk" in order to thrive. He believes that 95% of all tokens "will strive towards zero.".

Robert Kiyosaki, the author of the book "Rich Dad Poor Dad," has recently warned about an impending real estate market crash. According to the expert, California mortgage lender LoanDepot is already on the verge of bankruptcy, and the upcoming real estate market collapse is likely to be much worse than the 2008 crisis. In this situation, Kiyosaki once again advised his followers to prepare for the disaster and accumulate precious metals and bitcoin.

Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, also believes that in the fight against inflation, the demand for alternative instruments will increase, and one of them is Bitcoin, which he predicts will reach $500,000 in the long term. Max Keiser, a former trader and television host who is now an advisor to Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele, mentioned an even higher figure of $1 million per coin. Cathy Wood, CEO of ARK Invest, also believes that the $1 million target is achievable.

Peter Brandt, known as the "Mysterious Market Wizard," has joined the ranks of bitcoin praise, expressing doubts about all coins except Bitcoin. This legendary trader and analyst stated that bitcoin is the only cryptocurrency that will successfully finish this marathon. He later added that ethereum (ETH) is likely to survive, but the real legacy belongs to bitcoin. Benjamin Cowen, mentioned earlier, also predicts difficulties for ethereum, suggesting that ETH/BTC may plummet to Q1 2021 levels in the near future, potentially losing up to 45% of its current value.

Chris Burniske, a partner at venture capital firm Placeholder, has noted that cryptocurrencies often experience growth when the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) index takes a breather. Cooling off in stocks prompts capital to flow into riskier assets, and bitcoin begins a bullish rally. Burniske refers to observations made by Glassnode's founders, Jan Happel and Yann Allemann. According to their findings, since 2019, bitcoin has shown strong growth after signs of bullish exhaustion in the NDX. Currently, bitcoin is just a few steps away from surpassing the NDX once again as the index nears a local peak.

Popular investor and founder of venture company Eight, Michael Van De Poppe, believes that the current market conditions make it impossible for the negative forecasts for BTC to come true, as some authors predict a drop in the cryptocurrency to $12,000. According to his opinion, investors should now "fill their pockets" in anticipation of further growth.

BTC dominance reached 50% on Thursday, June 21. This means that half of the entire cryptocurrency market capitalization is accounted for by this asset. The last time the index was this high was two years ago in May 2021. The current rise is attributed to the pressure from the SEC on altcoins and the application for a spot bitcoin trust by BlackRock. Michael Saylor, the CEO of MicroStrategy, believes that bitcoin dominance will continue to grow and reach 80% in the coming years. "Currently, there are 25,000 tokens of varying quality in the market, which confuses large investors," he says. "After removing unnecessary assets through the SEC, major capital will be more willing to invest in the leading cryptocurrency.".

At the time of writing the review, on the evening of Friday, June 23, BTC/USD is trading at around $30,840. The total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market stands at $1.196 trillion ($1.064 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has returned to mid-April levels, jumping from the Neutral zone to the Greed zone over the week, and rising from 47 to 65 points.
 

NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/

[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews of the Week

– Robert F. Kennedy Jr., nephew of the 35th President of the United States and participant in the current election race, outlined his plans regarding bitcoin and financial independence of citizens in an interview with The New York Post.
The candidate promised to make decisions that "support bitcoin and transaction freedom, allowing people to manage their own wallets." He clarified that he would create a relaxed regulatory environment in the U.S., which would incorporate "strict control to prevent money laundering." Kennedy also voiced opposition to a digital dollar. "I oppose central bank digital currencies because they are tools of control and oppression, and they are likely to be abused," explained the politician.
He also identified the search for ways to globally regulate Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies as a significant challenge. Citing remarks by Elon Musk, he noted that "AI will first take away jobs, then it will kill us."
For reference: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is an American environmental lawyer, radio host, and writer known for his anti-vaccination advocacy and conspiracy theories.

– Peter Schiff, President of Euro Pacific Capital, a gold enthusiast, and a fervent critic of bitcoin, claimed that there is "nothing lower quality than cryptocurrencies." "Until recently, the rally in highly speculative assets had excluded Bitcoin. Now that it has finally joined the party, it is likely to end soon," he wrote. According to Schiff, such rallies usually end when the "lowest quality things," such as digital assets, finally join them.
Recall that in March, the President of Euro Pacific Capital urged the sale of the leading cryptocurrency and buying gold amidst the issues with Silvergate Bank.

– Cameron Winklevoss, one of the founders of the cryptocurrency exchange Gemini, announced on Twitter that both institutional and retail investors have begun purchasing bitcoin. Notably, according to him, institutions are extremely interested in buying Bitcoin ahead of the approval of spot ETFs.
It's worth noting that the investment giant BlackRock recently filed an application to launch a spot Bitcoin trust, intended to simplify institutional access to the crypto market. Another investment behemoth, Invesco, which manages assets worth $1.4 trillion, has applied to launch a spot Bitcoin ETF. (MicroStrategy believes such an ETF could absorb trillions of dollars).
"The window to buy bitcoin in advance is closing. Bitcoin was the most obvious and profitable investment of the last decade. But it will remain just as beneficial in this decade!", claimed Cameron Winklevoss. Hugh Hendry, the manager of the hedge fund Eclectica Asset Management, agrees with him, suggesting that bitcoin could triple its capitalization in the medium term.

– Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise, stated in an interview with Bloomberg that the cryptocurrency market has shown incredible resilience in the face of constantly increasing regulatory pressure. The recent application by BlackRock, the largest asset management company, to launch a Bitcoin spot ETF is just one of the reasons for a new bull cycle.
"In fact, bitcoin has been gradually rising since November of last year when FTX collapsed. Meaning, cryptocurrencies grew despite all the growing anxiety. Now we have BlackRock, who has raised the flag and declared that BTC matters. That it's asset institutional investors want to invest in. I believe we've entered a new era of cryptocurrency, which I call 'prime,' and expect a multi-year bull trend that's only just beginning," argues the businessman.
The CEO of Bitwise predicts that not only cryptocurrencies will flourish, but also companies working in this industry. The businessman is expecting a multitude of new crypto firms to enter the stock market, as well as companies with large cryptocurrency reserves.
As early as 2021, Matt Hougan said that the futures-based cryptocurrency ETFs, which exist in the US market, are not particularly suitable for long-term investors due to their high ancillary costs. Only when spot exchange-traded funds for bitcoin emerge will institutional investors begin substantial capital injections.

– Popular bitcoin maximalist and advisor to the President of El Salvador, Max Keiser, believes that SEC Chairman Gary Gensler has sufficient technical and political tools to assign XRP and ETH the status of a security, which would ultimately kill these altcoins. "The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) works for the banking cartel, racketeering on behalf of financial structures," Keiser wrote in his blog.
The crypto enthusiast thinks that the mere fact of XRP and ETH's fate being in the hands of regulatory bodies already suggests that these assets are too centralized and incapable of surviving without losses in the lawless and conflict-ridden environment where the SEC operates. Some opponents of the SEC argue that computer code, by definition, cannot be a security. However, Max Keiser considers this a weak and dead-end argument since the functionality and purpose of the crypto asset will play a significant role in its classification.
Recall that the Commission classified Solana (SOL), Cardano (ADA), Polygon (MATIC), Coti (COTI), Algorand (ALGO), Filecoin (FIL), Cosmos (ATOM), Sandbox (SAND), Axie Infinity (AXS), and Decentraland (MANA) as securities. The crypto community practically did not react to this regulator's statement. Moreover, several cryptocurrency platforms took the SEC's statement as guidance for action and delisted to avoid possible claims.

– The next bitcoin halving, which is expected to occur in April 2024, will reduce miners' rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block. According to an analyst operating under the pseudonym InvestAnswers, such a reduction in supply from miners could catalyse a significant bullish surge.
The expert believes that further institutional adoption, including BackRock's application for a spot Bitcoin ETF, will also increase demand for the asset and further reduce supply. Apart from BlackRock, Fidelity, Deutsche Bank, Credit Agricole, Citadel, and Invesco have also shown activity in the crypto market. Together, they manage assets totalling $27 trillion. And bitcoin's market cap is just a little more than $0.5 trillion. Only a tiny part of this half-trillion is being traded in the market. This implies that "demand for Bitcoins is growing, and the supply is drying up. And that means the price is rising," explained InvestAnswers.

– The main altcoin has secured its position above the key $1850 mark, and a number of analysts believe that ethereum has the potential to realize bullish momentum in the near term. For example, popular expert Ali Martinez points out that ETH may face serious resistance near the $2,000-2,060 zone, as over 832,000 addresses previously opened sales in this range. However, if ethereum overcomes this zone, it has every chance of reaching $2,330 on a sharp impulse. And in perspective, a path opens for further growth up to $2,750.
On the other hand, specialists at Santiment believe that the altcoin is currently unstable. This is due to a significant battle between buyers and sellers near the $1,900 region. However, the overall supply of ethereum on centralized platforms has decreased by 9.2%. In theory, this could provide additional support to the main altcoin.

– Futures contracts for ethereum and bitcoin will expire on Friday, June 30. According to AmberDate, more than 150 thousand BTC options will be liquidated by this deadline on the Deribit Exchange, amounting to approximately $4.57 billion. Another $2.3 billion will be allocated to ETH contracts. Experts from CoinGape believe that this could be a trigger for a serious increase in volatility in July and provide significant support to these assets. However, a lot will also depend on the macroeconomic statistics coming from the U.S.

– Morgan Creek Capital's founder and CTO, Mark Yusko, believes that bitcoin and the crypto markets have entered a bullish trajectory. In his opinion, this trend may last up until the next halving. "I think the rally is just starting. We've just entered the so-called crypto-summer season," the specialist wrote. However, he warned that a speculative explosion caused by halving is usually followed by an excessive reaction in the opposite direction, known as a crypto winter.
According to the head of Morgan Creek Capital, bitcoin is digital gold, and it is ready to replace what physical gold has done for 5,000 years. As for ethereum, Yusko thinks of it as a substitute for fiat currency.

– Ten years ago, Davinci Jeremie posted a video on YouTube in which he strongly recommended his viewers spend at least one dollar on Bitcoin, and explained why BTC would grow in the coming years. At that time, this forecast from Jeremie either angered or amused most investors who did not want to heed the recommendation. Now, they bitterly regret it - the $1 invested at that time could have bought more than 1,000 BTC, which today are valued at $30 million.
 Jeremie noted in a recent interview that bitcoin should be bought even now. According to him, only 2 percent of the world's population owns cryptocurrency, so it still has time to please its investors with new records. "However, there is also one problem here," says Jeremie. "Everyone wants to have a whole Bitcoin. No one wants to go to the store and say, 'Can I get one trillionth of an apple'. So even though Bitcoin is divisible, this property is essentially its Achilles heel. The solution to the problem is to make the display of small parts of BTC more comprehensible. For example, do not write amounts like 0.00001 BTC, but replace them with an equal number of Satoshi, that is, the smallest indivisible particle of 1 bitcoin worth 0.00000001 BTC."
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/

[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for July 03 - 06, 2023

EUR/USD: When Will the Pair Return to 1.1000?

Summarizing the second half of June, the result in the EUR and USD confrontation can be said to be neutral. On Friday, June 30, EUR/USD ended up where it traded on both the 15th and 23rd of June.

On Thursday, June 29, some quite strong macroeconomic data came out of the US. The Bureau of Economic Analysis revised its GDP figures for the first quarter upwards to 2.0% year on year (YoY) (forecast was 1.3%). As for the labour market, the number of initial jobless claims for the week dropped by almost 30K, reaching the lowest level since the end of May - 239K.

Recall that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US Federal Reserve decided at its June 14 meeting to take a pause in the process of monetary tightening and left the interest rate unchanged at 5.25%. After this, market participants were left to speculate on the regulator's next moves. The released data reinforced confidence in the stability of the country's economy and raised expectations for further dollar interest rate hikes. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate hike of 25 basis points (bps) at the Fed's July meeting rose to 87%, and the probability that the total rate hike by the end of 2023 will be 50 bps is nearing 40%. As a result, in the middle of Friday, June 30, EUR/USD recorded a local low at 1.0835.

Speaking at an economic forum in Sintra (Portugal) on Wednesday, June 28, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that further interest rate increases would be driven by a strong labour market and persistently high inflation. However, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data published on June 30 indicated that inflation, although slowly, is declining. Forecasts suggested that the PCE index for June would remain at the previous level of 4.7%, but in reality, it fell to 4.6%. This somewhat dampened the bullish sentiment on the dollar, with the DXY index heading lower and EUR/USD returning to the central zone of the two-week sideways corridor, ending the five-day period at 1.0910.

As for the state of the economy on the other side of the Atlantic, following high preliminary inflation data from Spain and Germany, markets expected the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) in the Eurozone to rise by 0.7% in June, significantly exceeding the 0.2% a month earlier. However, the actual value, although higher than in May, was only slightly so, at 0.3%. Moreover, the preliminary Consumer Price Index (CPI) published on Friday, June 30th, showed a decrease in Eurozone inflation from 6.1% to 5.5% YoY (forecast was 5.6%).

Recall that after hawkish statements from ECB leaders made in mid-June, the markets had already priced in two euro rate hikes, in July and September, each by 25 basis points. Therefore, the fresh European inflation data had little effect on investor sentiment.

Friday, June 30, marked not only the end of the quarter but also the first half of the year. In this regard, representatives from several banks decided to make predictions for the second half of 2023 and the start of 2024. Economists at Credit Agricole see risks of a decrease in EUR/USD from current levels in the near term and predict its gradual recovery starting from Q4 2023. In their opinion, over the next 6-12 months, the pair could rise to 1.1100.

Strategists at Wells Fargo expect the dollar to be fairly stable or even slightly stronger for the rest of 2023. However, they predict a noticeable weakening over the course of the following year. "Given our expectations for a later and shallow recession in the U.S. and a later easing of Fed policy," Wells Fargo analysts write, "we anticipate a later and more gradual depreciation of the U.S. dollar. [...] We predict that by the end of 2023, the trade-weighted U.S. dollar rate will change little compared to the current level, and by 2024 it will have declined by 4.5%."

Economists at Goldman Sachs also updated their EUR/USD forecasts. They too now indicate a smaller drop in the coming months and a more prolonged recovery of the euro by the end of 2023 and the first half of 2024. They predict the pair rate to be at 1.0700 in three months, 1.1000 in six months, and 1.1200 in twelve months.

As for the near-term prospects, at the time of writing this review on the evening of June 30, 50% of analysts voted for the pair's decline, 25% for its rise, and the remaining 25% took a neutral position. Among oscillators on D1, 35% are on the side of the bulls (green), 25% are on the side of the bears (red), and 40% are painted in neutral grey. Among the trend indicators, 90% are coloured green, and only 10% are red. The nearest support for the pair is located around 1.0895-1.0900, followed by 1.0865, 1.0790-1.0815, 1.0745, 1.0670 and, finally, the May 31 low of 1.0635. The bulls will encounter resistance in the area of 1.0925-1.0940, followed by 1.0985, 1.1010, 1.1045, 1.1090-1.1110.

Upcoming events to note include the release of the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for Germany and the US on Monday, July 3. The minutes from the latest FOMC meeting will be published on Wednesday, July 5. The following day, on Thursday, July 6, data on retail sales volumes in the Eurozone will be available. On the same day, the ADP employment report and the PMI for the US service sector will also be published.

Closing out the work week, another batch of data from the US labour market will be released on Friday, July 7, including the unemployment rate and the important nonfarm payroll (NFP) figure. ECB President Christine Lagarde will also deliver a speech on the same day.

Furthermore, traders should be aware that Tuesday, July 4 is a public holiday in the US, as the country observes Independence Day. As a result, the markets will close earlier the day before due to the holiday.

GBP/USD: How Mr. Powell "Defeated" Mr. Bailey

In the previous review, we noted how strongly the words of officials affect quotes. This week was another confirmation of this. On Wednesday, June 28, GBP/USD showed an impressive drop. The cause were the speeches of the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and Bank of England's Governor Andrew Bailey in Sintra. Mr. Bailey promised that his Central Bank would "do whatever it takes to get inflation to target level". This implies at least two more rate hikes. However, Mr. Powell did not rule out further tightening of the Fed's monetary policy, even though inflation in the US is much lower than in the United Kingdom. As a result of these two speeches, Jerome Powell and the US currency won, and GBP/USD dropped sharply.

The next day, strong US macro statistics added strength to the dollar. If it were not for the data on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) in the US published at the end of the week, the pound would have suffered quite a bit. But thanks to the PCE, in just a few hours it managed to recover almost all the losses and put the final chord at the mark of 1.2696.

In the mentioned speech in Sintra, Andrew Bailey also stated that "the UK economy has proven much more resilient" than the Central Bank expected. We would like to believe the head of the BoE. However, the data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on June 30 raise certain concerns. Thus, the country's GDP grew in Q1 2023 by 0.1% in quarterly terms and 0.2% in annual terms. And if the first indicator remained at the previous level, then the second showed a significant decline: it turned out to be 0.5% lower than the data for Q4 2022.

According to Credit Suisse economists, the situation facing the Bank of England should be defined as genuinely exceptional. But the slowdown in British GDP does not seem to worry the BoE leadership too much, which is focused on combating high inflation.

Following the May and June meetings, the BoE raised the interest rate by 25 basis points and 50 basis points to 5.00%. Many analysts believe that the regulator may bring it up to 5.50% already at the two upcoming meetings, and then to 6.25%, despite the threat of economic recession. Such steps in the foreseeable future will support the pound. At Credit Suisse, for example, they believe that even though the pound has significantly strengthened since September 2022, GBP/USD still has the potential to grow to 1.3000.

From a technical analysis perspective, the indications of oscillators on D1 appear quite uncertain - a third point to the north, a third to the south, and a third to the east. The picture is clearer for trend indicators - 90% recommend buying, 10% selling. If the pair moves south, it will encounter support levels and zones at 1.2625, 1.2570, 1.2480-1.2510, 1.2330-1.2350, 1.2275, 1.2200-1.2210. In case of the pair's rise, it will meet resistance at levels of 1.2755, 1.2800-1.2815, 1.2850, 1.2940, 1.3000, 1.3050, and 1.3185-1.3210.

As for the events of the coming week, the focus will be on the publication of the PMI in the UK manufacturing sector on Monday, July 3. On Tuesday, July 4, the Bank of England's report will be published, which may shed light on the future course of monetary policy. And at the end of the week, on Friday, July 7, the data on the US labour market, including the level of unemployment and such an important indicator as the number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector (NFP), will be released.

In the events for the upcoming week, one can note Monday, July 3, when the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the United Kingdom will be published.

USD/JPY: The "Ticket to the Moon" Turned Out to be Multi-Use

As soon as we mentioned the potential interventions to support the yen in our last review, almost everyone started discussing this topic, including analysts and even officials from the Japanese Government. Of course, our speculations were not the trigger; it was the exchange rate of the Japanese currency. Last week, USD/JPY continued its "flight to the moon," setting another record at the height of 145.06. Interestingly, it was at the 145.00 mark that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) conducted its first intervention in many years.

It has been said a thousand times that increasing divergence in monetary policy between the Bank of Japan and other major central banks is a recipe for further yen weakening. Thus, last week, following the release of US GDP and unemployment claims data, the yield on 10-year US treasury bonds jumped to 3.84%, and two-year bonds to 4.88%, the highest level since March. Therefore, the spread between US and Japanese bonds continues to widen, reflecting the growing divergence in the monetary policy of the Fed and the BoJ and pushing USD/JPY to astronomical heights. Understandably, in such a situation, the question arose about the ability of the Japanese regulator to artificially support its national currency.

Hirokazu Matsuno, the Chief Cabinet Secretary of Japan, stated on Friday, June 30 that the authorities are "closely monitoring currency movements with a high sense of urgency and immediacy." "It's important that the exchange rate moves steadily, reflecting fundamental economic indicators. Recently, sharp unilateral movements have been observed. [We] will take appropriate measures in response to excessive currency movements," promised the high-ranking official.

However, several experts doubt that the Japanese Government and Central Bank have the strength and capability not just to strengthen the yen once, but to maintain it in such a state over an extended period of time. It's enough to recall that less than eight months have passed since the last intervention in November 2023, and here again, USD/JPY is storming the height of 145.00. Since all currency reserves are finite, say Commerzbank specialists, solving this problem will be infinitely difficult, and "all that remains is to hope that officials from the [finance] ministry realize this and do not overestimate their capabilities.".

The monetary policy pursued by the Japanese Government and Central Bank in recent years clearly indicates that their focus is not solely on the yen exchange rate, but on economic indicators. However, it is important to note that one of these indicators is inflation. In this regard, we have seen an acceleration in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to 3.1% YoY, compared to 3.0% the previous month and 2.7% in February. While these values are significantly lower than those observed in the US, Eurozone, or the UK, no one can guarantee that inflation will not continue to rise further. If the BoJ does not intend to tighten its ultra-easy policy and raise interest rates, the only tool left to maintain the exchange rate is currency interventions. The only remaining question is when they will begin – now or when the rate reaches 150.00, as it did in the autumn of 2022.

Many experts still hold hope that the Bank of Japan will eventually decide to tighten its policy. These hopes allow economists at Danske Bank to forecast a USD/JPY rate below 130.00 within a 6–12-month horizon. Similar predictions are made by strategists at BNP Paribas, who target 130.00 by the end of this year and 123.00 by the end of 2024. However, Wells Fargo's forecast appears more modest, with their specialists expecting the pair to only decrease to 133.00 by the end of 2024. Nonetheless, reaching that level would still be considered a significant achievement for the Japanese currency, as it concluded the past week at 144.29 after the publication of US PCE data.

At the time of writing the review, 60% of analysts, like a week ago, anticipate that the yen will recoup at least some of its losses and push the pair to the south, while the remaining 40% of experts point to the east. However, there are no supporters of the pair's growth this time. It is worth noting that there were only a minimal number of supporters the previous week, with only 10%. Nevertheless, USD/JPY continues its journey to the stars. Ultimately, while experts ponder, the market decides. Regarding this matter, there are no doubts from either trend indicators or oscillators: all 100% on D1 point upwards. However, a quarter of the oscillators actively signal overbought conditions for the pair.

The nearest support level is located in the 143.74 zone, followed by 142.95-143.20, 142.20, 141.40, then 140.90-141.00, 140.60, 138.75-139.05, 138.30, and 137.50. The closest resistance is at 144.55, and then bulls will need to overcome barriers at 145.00-145.30, 146.85-147.15, and 148.85, before reaching the October 2022 high of 151.95.

No significant economic information related to the Japanese economy is expected to be released in the upcoming week. However, unless the Bank of Japan announces currency interventions, which they do not typically preannounce.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Institutional Bitcoin Frenzy Gains Momentum

What has been talked about and dreamed of for so long seems to be happening: global financial giants are finally believing in the bright future of Bitcoin. Back in 2021, Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, mentioned that futures-based cryptocurrency ETFs were not suitable for long-term investors due to high associated costs. He stated that once spot-based bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) emerged, institutional investors would start pouring significant investments. Recently, in an interview with Bloomberg, Hougan announced the dawn of a new era, saying, "Now we have BlackRock raising the flag and stating that BTC has value, that it's an asset in which institutional investors want to invest. I believe we are entering a new era of cryptocurrencies, which I call the 'mainstream era,' and I expect a multi-year bull trend that is just beginning.".

A spot BTC ETF is a fund whose shares are traded on an exchange and track the market or spot price of BTC. The main idea behind such ETFs is to provide institutional investors with access to bitcoin trading without physically owning it, through a regulated and financially familiar product.

Currently, eight major financial institutions have submitted applications to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to enter the cryptocurrency market through spot-based ETFs. Alongside investment giant BlackRock, these include global asset managers such as Invesco and Fidelity. Global banks such as JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Bank of New York Mellon, Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, HSBC, and Credit Agricole have also joined the bitcoin fever.

It is worth noting that the SEC has previously rejected all similar applications. However, the current situation may be different. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler has confirmed that the SEC considers bitcoin a commodity, opening up broad prospects for the leading cryptocurrency. Cameron Winklevoss, one of the founders of the cryptocurrency exchange Gemini, has confirmed that institutional investors are ready to start buying BTC, expecting the approval of spot-based BTC funds. "Bitcoin was the obvious and most profitable investment of the past decade. But it will remain the same in this decade," said Winklevoss. This sentiment is shared by Hugh Hendry, the manager of Eclectica Asset Management hedge fund, who believes that BTC could triple its market capitalization in the medium term.

When it comes to altcoins, the situation is somewhat more challenging. Max Keiser, a popular bitcoin maximalist and now an advisor to the President of El Salvador, believes that Gary Gensler has enough technical and political tools at his disposal to classify XRP and ETH as securities, which would ultimately kill these altcoins. "The Securities and Exchange Commission is working for the banking cartel, engaging in racketeering in the interest of financial structures," Keiser wrote in his blog.

It is worth noting that the SEC has filed lawsuits against Binance and Coinbase, accusing the platforms of selling unregistered securities. In the court documents, the Commission identified Solana (SOL), Cardano (ADA), Polygon (MATIC), Coti (COTI), Algorand (ALGO), Filecoin (FIL), Cosmos (ATOM), Sandbox (SAND), Axie Infinity (AXS), and Decentraland (MANA) as securities. Several cryptocurrency platforms have already taken this SEC statement as guidance and, to avoid potential claims, have delisted these altcoins.

The statements above indicate that bitcoin is likely to maintain its market leadership in the foreseeable future. Mark Yusko, the founder and CEO of Morgan Creek Capital, believes that the bullish trend of BTC could continue until the next halving, which is expected to occur in April 2024. "I think the rally is just beginning. We have just entered what is known as the crypto summer season," wrote the expert. However, he cautioned that after the speculative surge caused by the halving, there is typically an excessive reaction in the opposite direction, known as crypto winter.

According to an analyst known as InvestAnswers, in addition to the upcoming halving, the institutional adoption that has begun will help drive the growth of BTC by increasing demand for the asset and reducing its supply. The aforementioned investment giants collectively manage trillions of dollars in assets, while the market capitalization of Bitcoin is just over $0.5 trillion. Only a tiny fraction of this $0.5 trillion is actively traded on the market.

Peter Schiff, the president of Euro Pacific Capital and a staunch critic of Bitcoin, holds the opposite view. He believes that there is "nothing more low-quality than cryptocurrencies." "Until recently, the rally in highly speculative assets excluded bitcoin. Now that it has finally joined the party, it is likely to end soon," he stated. According to Schiff, such rallies typically come to an end when "the lowest-quality things" eventually join them, referring to digital assets.

Looking at the BTC/USD chart, there is a suspicion that Peter Schiff might be right. After soaring on the news of BlackRock's and other institutional players' interest, the pair has been trading sideways within a narrow range of $28,850 to $31,000 for the past week. According to analysts, besides concerns about SEC actions, bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market are currently being weighed down by miners. Breaking the $30,000 barrier prompted them to send a record volume of coins to exchanges ($128 million in just the past week). Crypto miners fear a price reversal from a significant level due to increased regulatory scrutiny in the industry. Additionally, the average cost of mining remains higher than the current prices of digital assets due to the doubling of computational difficulty over the past year and a half. As a result, miners are forced to sell their coin holdings to sustain production activities, cover ongoing expenses, and repay debts.

As of the time of writing the review, on Friday evening, June 30, BTC/USD is trading around $30,420. The total market capitalization of the crypto market has slightly decreased to $1.191 trillion ($1.196 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is on the border between the Greed and Neutral zones, dropping from 65 to 56 points over the week.

New catalysts are needed for further upward movement. One of them could be the expiration of futures contracts for ethereum and bitcoin on Friday, June 30. According to AmberDate, over 150,000 BTC options with a total value of around $4.57 billion were settled on the Deribit Exchange. Additionally, $2.3 billion worth of contracts were settled for ETH. According to experts from CoinGape, this could trigger significant volatility in July and provide strong support for these assets. However, much will also depend on the macroeconomic data coming out of the United States.

As of the evening of June 30, ETH/USD is trading around $1,920. Several analysts believe that ethereum still has the potential for further bullish momentum. Popular expert Ali Martinez points out that ETH may encounter significant resistance near the $2,000-2,060 range, as over 832,000 addresses previously opened sales in this range. However, if ethereum surpasses this zone, it has a good chance of experiencing a sharp impulse towards $2,330. Furthermore, there is potential for further growth towards $2,750 in the long term.

And finally, a bit of history. Ten years ago, Davinci Jeremie posted a YouTube video strongly recommending his viewers to spend at least one dollar to purchase bitcoin and explained why BTC would grow in the coming years. At that time, Jeremy's forecast angered or amused most people who did not want to listen to his recommendation. However, they now deeply regret it as they could have acquired over 1,000 BTC for the $1 they would have invested, which is worth $30 million today.

In a recent interview, Jeremy emphasized that it is still worthwhile to buy bitcoin. According to him, only 2 percent of the world's population owns cryptocurrency, so it still has the potential to delight its investors with new records. "However, there is also one problem," says Jeremy. "Everyone wants to own a whole bitcoin. No one wants to go to a store and say, 'Can I get one trillionth of an apple?' So, although bitcoin is divisible, this property is essentially its Achilles' heel. The solution to this problem is to make the display of small fractions of BTC more user-friendly and understandable. For example, instead of writing amounts like 0.00001 BTC, they could be replaced by the equivalent amount of satoshis, which is the smallest indivisible unit of one Bitcoin valued at 0.00000001 BTC."
 

NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/

[Stan NordFX]

June Results: Gold and Pound Remain in NordFX Top 3

The brokerage company NordFX has summarized the trading performance of its clients for June 2023. Additionally, the social trading services, CopyTrading and PAMM, were evaluated, along with the profits generated by the company's IB partners.

- The trader from South Asia, with account No.1658XXX, emerged as the leader for the month, achieving a profit of 66,634 USD. This impressive performance was accomplished through transactions involving gold (XAU/USD), British pound (GBP/USD), and euro (EUR/USD)
- A representative from Western Asia secured the second place, with account No.1692XXX and a result of 36,544 USD. This individual utilized identical trading instruments: gold, the British pound, and the euro. In all pairs, the US dollar also served as the quoted currency.
- Securing the third spot on the podium was another trader from Western Asia, with account No.1553XXX. This trader earned a total of 30,904 USD in June, primarily from trades involving the same instruments, gold and the British pound.

The situation unfolded as follows in NordFX passive investment services:

In CopyTrading, we continue to track the fate of the veteran signal KennyFXPRO - Prismo 2K. For over seven months, it has been recovering from the shock of November 14, 2022 (when its drawdown exceeded 67%). However, the signal experienced a new shock between June 20-23, and to prevent the account from being wiped out, the signal author decided to close the loss-making positions. As a result, the profit returned to the November 2022 level and currently stands at 221% over 788 days of operation.

Another signal, Trade2win, received a fantastic profit of 5,343% in the spring with an equally fantastic drawdown of less than 15%. However, as we warned in our previous review of this signal, trading in financial markets is risky and past results do not guarantee their repetition in the future. This is exactly what happened with Trade2win: no transactions were made based on this signal in June, and all indicators remained at May's level.

From the startups, the signal SM04 caught our attention this time. In its 53 days of existence, it has generated almost 80% profit with a relatively moderate drawdown of about 22%.

On the PAMM service showcase, there remain two accounts that we have mentioned repeatedly in previous reviews. These are KennyFXPRO-The Multi 3000 EA and TranquilityFX-The Genesis v3. On November 14, 2022, similar to their colleague from CopyTrading, they suffered significant losses: their drawdown approached 43%. However, the PAMM managers decided not to give up, and as of June 30, 2023, the profit on the first of these accounts exceeded 103%, and on the second, 68%. The growth over the last month was insignificant, but both of these accounts managed to avoid the shock that KennyFXPRO - Prismo 2K experienced in June.

Additionally, we continue to monitor the Trade and earn account. It was opened over a year ago but was in a state of hibernation, awakening only in November. As a result, over the past 8 months, the return on it has reached 145% with a very small drawdown of less than 10%.

Among NordFX's IB partners, the top three stand as follows:
- For the second consecutive month, the top spot is held by a partner from Western Asia, with account No.1645XXX. While in May he was awarded a commission of 10,370 USD, it amounted to 10,005 USD in June.
- In second place is a partner from South Asia, with account No.1597XXX, who received a commission of 6,142 USD.
- And rounding out the top three is a partner from Eastern Asia, with account No.1169XXX, who earned 5,436 USD in June.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/

[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews of the Week

– Numerous Twitter users, including many cryptocurrency traders and investors, have voiced complaints against Elon Musk. The discontent was tied to the billionaire and new owner of the social network implementing a series of restrictions. Starting from July 1, 2023, verified users are able to view up to 6,000 posts per day, while unverified users are limited to only 600. At the same time, this limit is further reduced to 300 posts for new accounts.
According to several experts, these new restrictions may have a negative impact on the crypto market. Many industry participants have been receiving a large amount of important information via Twitter. However, it has now become significantly more difficult to obtain current data and news.
Musk himself assured that this measure is temporary and is necessary in order to reduce the load on the system's internal servers. He said that the limits will later increase to 8,000, 800, and 400 posts, respectively.

– The rapid fall in the price of the leading cryptocurrency is only a matter of time. This was asserted by the president of Euro Pacific Capital, "gold bug" Peter Schiff, adding that he had underestimated the "bubble potential of Bitcoin." In his view, most investors do not believe in the first cryptocurrency, they merely hope that someone will buy it at a high price.
The businessman believes that stories about people losing money on cryptocurrency will overshadow those about people getting rich from it. "The peak we saw in 2021, around $70,000, that's it, and ultimately bitcoin will burst," he predicted.

– "The adoption of spot bitcoin ETFs is a major event for the crypto industry," stated Michael Saylor, co-founder of MicroStrategy. "It's an important milestone on the path to institutional acceptance. I believe it's important, but I don't think bitcoin will rise overnight to $5 million."
"The approval of spot bitcoin ETF applications will make investors realize that the first cryptocurrency is a legitimate asset," the billionaire explained. "If the SEC approves applications for this asset, a user can press a button and purchase $10 million of BTC within 30 seconds." (The SEC is currently reviewing several applications for the launch of spot cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds. However, the Commission maintains that these applications are not sufficiently clear and comprehensive.)
For reference: MicroStrategy additionally purchased 12,333 BTC amounting to a total of $347 million between April 29 and June 27. Saylor's company now owns a total of 152,333 BTC, valued at over $4.6 billion, which were acquired at an average rate of $29,668.

– A survey revealed that 92% of Earth's inhabitants have heard of cryptocurrencies at least once. The study involved 15,158 individuals aged between 18 and 65 years from 15 countries across America, Europe, Asia, and Africa.
37% of the respondents consider this asset class as part of the monetary system. However, only 15% of Britons and 17% of Germans agree with this statement. Nigerians (65%) and Argentinians (56%) are the most interested in holding digital assets, seeing them as an effective means of preserving value. Analysts attributed this to the instability of local financial systems and state currencies. 26% of those surveyed consider crypto assets to be a scam. Primarily, Americans and Britons associate cryptocurrencies with fraudulent schemes.

– Most cryptocurrency exchanges do not allow minors to trade digital assets, but parents can open accounts on their behalf and allow them to participate in trading. Youth readily engage in this activity, and there are numerous stories of children investing in Bitcoin since its inception. For instance, Erik F. received $1,000 to invest in BTC when he was 12 years old, and by the time he turned 18, he had become a millionaire thanks to it.
According to data published last year by the platform Gohenry, 1.33 million children in the UK invested money in cryptocurrency. Moreover, a study titled "Parents, Kids, and Money," conducted by T. Rowe Price, showed that 57% of children aged 8-14 are familiar with digital currencies. They are better informed about cryptocurrencies than their parents, with only 47% of parents familiar with the technology - 10% less than their kids.

– Market participants should exercise more caution when trading cryptocurrency, warned CoinDesk researchers. The fact is that starting from Q4 2022, global fiat liquidity indicators have been rapidly declining, and the rise in BTC quotes in such conditions is an anomaly. The BTC rate hit a local price bottom of $15,500 in November last year and has since doubled in price to $31,000. Moreover, just since June 15, its value has spiked by over 20%. This occurred against the backdrop of news that major companies had once again submitted applications for the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs.
According to Lewis Harland, portfolio manager at Decentral Park Capital, the situation remains complex. He confirmed that lately, tracked fiat indicators, such as the Fed's net liquidity and global net liquidity level, have significantly dropped. "This is the main reason why we are cautious about BTC, despite the market's optimistic consensus. We think that investors are overlooking this," Harland added.
The global net liquidity indicator, which takes into account the supply of fiat in several major countries, has decreased to $26.5 trillion - the lowest level since November 2022. Such data was provided by the platforms TradingView and Decentral Park Capital.

– Crypto strategist and trader known as Bluntz, who accurately pinpointed the bottom of bitcoin's bear market in 2018, believes that ethereum is showing all the signs of a powerful rally that could occur in the coming months. According to his words, the remaining part of 2023 may set ethereum on parabolic growth, allowing the leading smart contract platform to significantly outperform BTC.
Bluntz is considered an experienced practitioner of technical analysis and, in particular, Elliott Wave Theory, which allows forecasting price behaviour following the psychology of the crowd that tends to manifest in waves.
According to this theory, a bullish asset shows a five-wave rally, with the third wave signalling the steepest rise. Bluntz suggests that ethereum is already in the early stages of the third wave's surge, which could lead to ETH approaching $4,000 by the end of 2023.

– Crypto trader Altcoin Sherpa is confident that the leading cryptocurrency may rise to $32,000 first and then to the new 2023 high of $40,000. However, he's not certain about the latter. This should be followed by a significant downward correction.
Addressing the ETH/BTC pair, Altcoin Sherpa noted that ethereum is likely to fall relative to the flagship crypto asset and target the minimum range around 0.053 BTC, or $1,614.

– Well-known crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen made a forecast about the likely price trajectory of Bitcoin and altcoins. In his opinion, compared to current levels, bitcoin could grow approximately by 14% and reach a maximum of $35,000 in 2023. "In the short term, it's really hard to say whether bitcoin can rise a bit again. For myself, I set a target of $35,000," the expert said.
Cowen also talked about what will happen to other coins if the BTC price does reach this goal. He believes this will be insignificant news for the altcoin market, as it will most likely continue to crash in pairs with Bitcoin. "Upon reaching $35,000, Bitcoin at some point must go down," argues Cowen. "I think it will have to repeat some of these movements, as usually happens in the year preceding the halving. And at this point, the altcoin market will drop a little bit more, and the dominance of Bitcoin will continue to grow. Liquidity is drying up, so people see relative safety in Bitcoin compared to the altcoin market. But this does not mean that Bitcoin cannot fall, it means that it is somewhat safer."

– Marathon Digital CEO Fred Thiel reported that the global financial market is demonstrating a decrease in correlation between two assets that investors traditionally view as effective hedges against market volatility. While the price of Bitcoin is showing explosive growth, the price of gold is gradually decreasing. Fred Thiel suggested that this not only indicates a shift in priorities in favor of digital assets but also demonstrates the widening accessibility of bitcoin to a broader circle of investors.
In April, analytical company Kaiko cited data on the correlation between BTC and XAU within 50%. At the time, according to Kaiko analyst Dessislava Aubert, this represented the strongest link between the two assets in more than a year.

– According to technical analysis data, the main cryptocurrency's rate on the BTC/USD chart may form a new "bullish flag". This opinion was expressed by experts from Fairlead Strategies. "Bitcoin is digesting its gains during the consolidation phase," they said. "A new bullish flag might be forming, which will emerge when breaking above the weekly Ichimoku cloud around $31,900."
The experts explained that this figure consists of a pole and a flag. According to them, its pole represents the initial price rally, and the flag represents the subsequent consolidation, caused by a "temporary exhaustion of bullish sentiments" and the absence of strong pressure from sellers. According to the theory of technical analysis, once an asset breaks the price above the contour of the flag, it tends to grow by an amount approximately equal to the length of the pole.
In the case of bitcoin, the upward movement from the June 15, 2023, low at $24,790 to the June 23 high at $31,388 represents the pole, and the subsequent consolidation formed the flag. According to analysts, a potential BTC breakout will allow the cryptocurrency's cost to reach the next key resistance level at $35,900.

– Venture capitalist Tim Draper has revised the timeframe within which the price of the main cryptocurrency is supposed to grow to $250,000. "I think we'll have to wait a little longer," the billionaire wrote, adding that his forecast will come true by the end of June 2025 with a 100% probability.
Draper had previously predicted that the price of bitcoin would reach $250,000 by the end of 2022. When his forecast didn't come true, he extended the timeline for its realization by another six months to mid-2023. Now he has made a new "correction", adding that the BTC price will exceed his assumptions due to the adoption of cryptocurrency by women.
However, Draper expressed concern about the regulation of digital assets. "Law enforcement regulation is killing our economy," he wrote on June 20. "I think we have a real problem because the SEC is sowing fear, and all innovators are leaving the country... This forced regulation doesn't make sense."
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/

[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for July 10 - 14, 2023

EUR/USD: Much Depends on the CPI

The Dollar Index (DXY) steadily increased during the past week, leading up to Thursday, July 6. As a result, EUR/USD was more inclined towards the American currency, causing the pair to find a local bottom at the 1.0833 level. The dollar's strength was driven by the publication of the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) last meeting on June 14. In it, the Committee members highlighted the risks of inflationary pressure and expressed a commitment to swiftly achieve their target inflation levels of 2.0%. They also noted the appropriateness of at least one more interest rate hike, in addition to the one in July, which boosted confidence for DXY bulls. Recall that the head of the regulator, Jerome Powell, also stated at the end of June that the "vast majority of Federal Reserve leaders expect two or more rate hikes by the end of the year".

Everything seemed to be going well for the dollar. However, the statistics released throughout the week were quite mixed, stirring doubts regarding the unwavering hawkish policy of the regulator. On one hand, according to the ADP report, employment in the US private sector, with a forecast of 228K, actually grew by 497K in June, significantly higher than the 267K in May. On the other hand, the JOLTS job openings index stood at 9.82 million in May, down from 10.3 million the previous month and falling short of the expected 9.935 million. The US manufacturing PMI index, which has been falling for eight consecutive months, disappointed as well, reaching 46.0 in June – the lowest level since May 2020. Commenting on these figures, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, stated that "the health of the US manufacturing sector deteriorated sharply in June, and this is fuelling fears that the economy may slide into recession in the second half of the year".

These fears were further exacerbated by renewed trade tensions between the US and China. Against this backdrop, market participants are questioning whether the Fed will dare to make another interest rate hike after the July one? (The market has long taken into account the rate increase on July 27 from 5.25% to 5.50% in its quotations.) Or will the regulator announce the end of the current monetary tightening cycle? The latest batch of labour market data released on Friday, July 7, could help answer this question.

The figures turned out to be disappointing for DXY bulls. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), a key barometer of potential economic cooling in the United States, showed that the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector decreased to 209K in June. This figure is lower than both the May value of 306K and the forecast of 225K. As for the growth of average hourly wages, according to the report from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, this indicator remained at the previous level: 4.4% YoY and 0.4% MoM. The only market expectation that was met was the unemployment rate, which decreased from 3.7% to 3.6% over the month.

Following the release of such data, dollar sellers returned to the market, and EUR/USD ended the work week at the 1.0968 level. As for the near-term prospects, at the time of writing this review on the evening of July 7, 35% of analysts forecast further growth for the pair, 45% anticipate a decline, and the remaining 20% took a neutral stance. Among the oscillators on D1, 80% favour the bulls, 20% the bears, and all trend indicators are leaning towards bullish. The nearest support for the pair is located around 1.0895-1.0925, followed by 1.0835-1.0865, 1.0790-1.0800, 1.0740, 1.0670, and finally, the May 31st low of 1.0635. The bulls will meet resistance in the 1.0975-1.0985 area, followed by 1.1010, 1.1045, 1.1090-1.1110.

The upcoming week brings a whole package of US consumer inflation data that could have the most significant impact on the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) values, including the core, will be published on Wednesday, July 12. The next day, on Thursday, July 13, we'll get information on key indicators such as the number of initial jobless claims and the US Producer Price Index (PPI). On Friday, as a 'cherry on top', we'll be presented with the University of Michigan's Consumer Confidence Index. As for important European statistics, the German Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be published on Tuesday.

GBP/USD: Prospects for a Bullish Trend

In the past week, the pound clearly became the beneficiary in GBP/USD. As of June 29, the British currency was trading at the 1.2600 level, and by July 7, it had already reached a high of 1.2848.

The pound was buoyed by weak manufacturing activity and labor market data in the US, and doubts about the continuation of the Fed's hawkish stance. It was also helped by the fact that the UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) came in at 46.5 in June, which, although lower than the previous figure of 47.1, was above the market expectation of 46.2. Against this backdrop, the likelihood of further active tightening of monetary policy by the Bank of England (BoE) is practically beyond doubt. Following its meetings in May and June, the BoE raised interest rates by 25 basis points and 50 basis points to 5.00%. Many analysts believe that the regulator could push it up to 5.50% in the next two meetings, and then even up to 6.25%, despite the threat of an economic recession. In such a situation, the British currency has a significant advantage. For example, at Credit Suisse, they believe that GBP/USD still has potential to grow to 1.3000.

The pair ended the past week at the 1.2838 level. "The trend momentum remains confidently bullish across short-term, medium-term, and long-term oscillators, suggesting that the push to 1.2850 (and beyond) is still in play," Scotiabank economists write. In theory, with the current volatility, GBP/USD could cover the remaining distance to 1.3000 in just a few weeks or even days. However, at this point, only 25% of experts support this scenario. The opposite position was taken by 45%, and neutrality was maintained by 30%.

As for technical analysis, 90% of the oscillators on D1 point to the north (a quarter are in the overbought zone), and 10% are looking to the east. 100% of the trend indicators recommend buying. In case of the pair's movement to the south, it will find support levels and zones at 1.2755, 1.2680-1.2700, 1.2590-1.2625, 1.2480-1.2510, 1.2330-1.2350, 1.2275, 1.2200-1.2210. In case of the pair's growth, it will meet resistance at the levels of 1.2850, 1.2940, 1.3000, 1.3050 and 1.3185-1.321.

Notable events for the upcoming week include a speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey on Monday, July 10, and the release of the UK's labour market data on Tuesday, July 11.

USD/JPY: The Pair's Interrupted Flight and Triumph of the Bears

What experts had long been waiting for has finally happened: USD/JPY interrupted its "moon flight" and switched to an emergency decline. More precisely, it was not just a decline, but a real crash. The reason for it, of course, was weak macroeconomic data from the U.S. since nothing has changed on the side of Japan. The policy of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) remains unchanged. The Deputy Governor of the Central Bank, Shinichi Uchida, has recently once again ruled out the possibility of an early end to ultra-soft monetary policy and exit from negative interest rates.

The monetary policy carried out by the Government and the Central Bank of Japan over the past few years clearly indicates that the yen rate, and even inflation, are not their top priority, even though the CPI has accelerated to 3.1% YoY. The main thing is the economic indicators, and it seems that everything is fine here. The Tankan Index of Large Manufacturers published on Monday, July 3, showed an impressive increase from 1 to 5 (with a forecast of 3), indicating an improvement in the business climate in the country.

USD/JPY traded at 145.06 on June 30, and the minimum on July 7 was recorded at 142.06. Thus, in just a week, the yen managed to win back a full 300 points from the dollar. The reason for such a triumph of the bears is the oversold Japanese currency. As strategists of the French financial conglomerate Societe Generale point out, the yen hasn't been this cheap since the 1970s. "Large pricing errors can last longer than we are used to thinking," they write, "but this one is extraordinary, and as soon as rates start to convert again, the yen will undoubtedly start a rally." Analysing the pair's prospects, Societe Generale expects that the yield on 5-year U.S. bonds will drop to 2.66% in a year, allowing USD/JPY to break below 130. If the yield on Japanese government bonds (JGB) remains at the current level, the pair has a chance to even drop to 125.00.

We noted in the last review that Danske Bank economists predict a USD/JPY rate below 130.00 on the horizon of 6-12 months. Strategists at BNP Paribas make a similar forecast - they target the level of 130.00 by the end of this year and 123.00 by the end of 2024. The Wells Fargo prediction looks modest - its experts believe that by the end of 2024, the pair will only drop to 133.00.

The past week saw USD/JPY end at 142.10. At the time of writing this review, 60% of analysts believe that the southward movement is just a short-term correction, and that the pair will return to growth in the coming days. The remaining 40% voted for its further fall. The indications of indicators on D1 are quite diverse. Among oscillators, 25% are coloured green, 15% are neutral grey, and 60% are red (with a quarter signalling the pair's oversold). Among trend indicators, the balance of power between green and red is 50% to 50%. The nearest support level is in the zone of 1.4140-141.60, followed by 140.45-140.60, 1.3875-1.3905, 137.50, 135.90-137.05. The nearest resistance is 145.00-145.30, then the bulls will need to overcome obstacles at the levels, 146.85-147.15, 148.85, and from there it is not far to the October 2022 peak of 151.95.

No significant economic information related to the Japanese economy is expected to be released in the upcoming week.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Three Growth Triggers - The Federal Reserve, Halving, and Women

The beginning of the summer turned out to be quite hot for the crypto industry. On the one hand, regulators continued to tighten their grip on the sector. On the other, we are witnessing a surge in institutional interest. First and foremost, it is applications for the launch of spot bitcoin ETFs from such giants as BlackRock, Invesco, Fidelity, and others.

Regarding regulatory pressure, debates have been going on for over a year. Some warmly welcome this process, while others protest. The former argue that this will cleanse the industry of unscrupulous participants and attract billions, if not trillions, of institutional dollars to the crypto market. The latter claim that the intervention of the same US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) completely breaks the main principle of cryptocurrencies - independence from states and governments. "Law enforcement regulation is killing our economy," wrote Tim Draper, co-founder of venture capital firm Draper Fisher Jurvetson, on June 20. "I think we have a real problem because the SEC is sowing fear... This compulsory regulation doesn't make sense.".

Note that the SEC has previously rejected all applications to create spot ETFs on bitcoin. This time around, the Commission stated that the fresh applications are not clear and comprehensive enough. However, companies are not retreating and have already submitted edited versions. "Approval of applications for a spot ETF on bitcoin will let investors know that the first cryptocurrency is a legitimate asset," explains MicroStrategy co-founder Michael Saylor. "If the SEC approves applications for this asset, a user can press a button and buy bitcoin for $10 million in 30 seconds." "This is an important milestone on the path to institutional acceptance. I think it's important, although I don't think bitcoin will grow to $5 million overnight," the billionaire concluded. However, in the medium term, according to Hugh Hendry, manager of hedge fund Eclectica Asset Management, bitcoin could triple its capitalization.

By the way, the aforementioned Tim Draper previously predicted that the price of bitcoin would reach $250,000 by the end of 2022. When his forecast did not come true, he extended the timing of its realization by another six months until mid-2023. Now Draper has adjusted his forecast again - according to him, the main cryptocurrency will reach the stated goal with a 100% probability by the end of June 2025. Moreover, one of the drivers of growth will be the acceptance of bitcoin by women.

Housewives paying for purchases with bitcoin can undoubtedly become a serious factor. However, more "conservative" analysts prefer to point to two others: 1) the easing of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and 2) the upcoming bitcoin halving in April 2024. In anticipation of these two events, crypto exchanges are noting a decrease in supply, and long-term holders have accumulated a record number of coins in their wallets: 13.4 million bitcoins.

Regarding point 1. At its June meeting, the Federal Reserve decided to take a pause and left the key interest rate unchanged. However, the possibility of one or two more hikes of 25 b.p. each is not ruled out. After this, the cycle of monetary tightening may be completed, and at the end of 2023 - the beginning of 2024 markets expect a reversal and the start of a decrease in the rate. This should positively affect investors' risk appetite and facilitate the inflow of capital, including into digital assets.

Point 2. Halving. This event also usually has a positive effect on bitcoin quotes. A correlation between the halvings that occur every four years and the dynamics of the coin's value has long been noted. Analyst Root presented an interesting radial diagram on this topic. Making a circle in four years, the price forms the cycle's peaks and troughs in the same sectors. And, according to this diagram, after finding the bottom in 2023, bitcoin should move towards a price of $1 million per coin, which it will reach in 2026.

As for the near future, CoinDesk researchers believe that market participants should now be doubly cautious when trading cryptocurrency. The fact is that since the IV quarter of 2022, fiat liquidity indicators worldwide are rapidly declining, and the growth of BTC quotes in such conditions is an anomaly. The BTC rate reached a local price bottom at the $15,500 mark last November and since then has doubled to $31,000. Moreover, since June 15 alone, the price has jumped by more than 20%.

According to Decentral Park Capital's portfolio manager Lewis Harland, the situation remains complicated. He confirmed that recently tracked fiat indicators, such as the net liquidity of the Fed and the global level of net liquidity, have fallen sharply. "This is the main reason why we are cautious about BTC, despite the optimistic market consensus. We think investors are overlooking this," added Harland. (The global net liquidity indicator, which accounts for fiat supply in several major countries, has dropped to $26.5 trillion - the lowest level since November 2022. These data were provided by TradingView and Decentral Park Capital).

Anomalous, in the opinion of several specialists, is also the drop in correlation between physical and digital gold. While the price of bitcoin shows explosive growth, the value of gold is gradually decreasing. Fred Thiel, CEO of Marathon Digital, a mining company, suggested that this not only indicates a change in priorities in favour of digital assets but also demonstrates that bitcoin is becoming more accessible to a wider range of investors.

Euro Pacific Capital President Peter Schiff disagrees with these theses. According to this ardent gold supporter, most investors don't actually believe in bitcoin, but are only hoping that someone will buy it from them at a higher price. "The rapid fall in the price of the first cryptocurrency is just a matter of time. The peak we saw in 2021, around $70,000, is it. And ultimately bitcoin will explode," said Schiff, adding that stories about people losing money on cryptocurrency will eclipse stories about people getting rich on it.

According to renowned analyst Benjamin Cowen, the decline in fiat liquidity will primarily negatively impact not bitcoin, but altcoins. "Liquidity is drying up, so people see relative safety in bitcoin compared to the altcoin market," the specialist believes. "But that doesn't mean bitcoin can't fall; it just means it's a little safer."

According to Cowen's forecast, bitcoin could rise about 14% compared to current levels and reach a maximum of $35,000 in 2023. "In the short term, it's really hard to say if bitcoin can rise a little again. For myself, I set a target of $35,000," the analyst said.

The crypto trader known as Altcoin Sherpa is confident that the main cryptocurrency can first rise to $32,000 and then to a new 2023 high of $40,000. However, he's not so sure about the $40,000 mark. After that, there should be a significant correction downwards.

According to technical analysis, the BTC/USD cryptocurrency pair may be forming a new "bullish flag" pattern on the chart. This opinion was expressed by experts from Fairlead Strategies. They stated, "Bitcoin is digesting its gains during the consolidation phase. A potential new bullish flag is forming, which would occur with a breakthrough above the weekly Ichimoku cloud around $31,900."

The experts explained that this pattern consists of a pole and a flag. The pole represents the initial price rally, while the flag represents subsequent consolidation caused by "temporary exhaustion of bullish sentiment" and a lack of strong selling pressure. According to the theory of technical analysis, once the asset breaks above the flag's boundary price, it tends to rise by a distance approximately equal to the length of the pole.

In the case of bitcoin, the upward movement from the low on June 15, 2023, at $24,790 to the high on June 23 at $31,388 represents the pole, and the subsequent consolidation formed the flag. According to analysts, a potential breakthrough for BTC would allow the cryptocurrency's price to reach the next key resistance level at $35,900.

According to crypto strategist and trader Bluntz, who accurately identified the bottom of the bear market for bitcoin in 2018, he has now provided a forecast regarding ethereum. He believes that the leading altcoin is showing all the signs of a powerful rally that could take place in the coming months. According to the crypto strategist, the remaining part of 2023 could set ethereum up for parabolic growth, surpassing bitcoin significantly.

Bluntz is considered an experienced practitioner of technical analysis, particularly Elliott Wave Theory, which allows for price behaviour forecasting based on crowd psychology, often manifesting in waves. According to this theory, a bullish asset exhibits a five-wave rally, with the third wave signalling the steepest ascent. Bluntz suggests that ethereum is already in the early stages of the third wave surge, which could lead to ETH approaching $4,000 before the end of 2023.

In contrast, Altcoin Sherpa made an opposing forecast. Looking at ETH/BTC, he noted that ethereum is likely to decline in relation to the flagship cryptocurrency and aim for the lower end of the range around 0.053 BTC, or $1,614.

As of the time of writing the review, Friday evening, July 7, BTC/USD is trading around $30,200, and ETH/USD is in the range of $1,860. The overall cryptocurrency market capitalization has decreased and stands at $1.176 trillion ($1.191 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains on the border between the Greed and Neutral zones, currently at 55 points (56 points a week ago).
 

NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/

[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews of the Week

– As of the end of June, the primary cryptocurrency holdings belonging to Robert F. Kennedy Jr, the nephew of the 35th US president and a current electoral candidate, reached $250,000. This was revealed by a financial report discovered by CNBC. Kennedy's representatives confirmed that the funds are personally his.
Interestingly, during the Bitcoin-2023 conference, this presidential candidate called digital assets "a symbol of democracy and freedom," yet denied his investments in cryptocurrency. "I'm not an investor, and I'm not here to give investment advice," stated this electoral race participant at the time.

– Standard Chartered bank specialists predicted in April that bitcoin would reach $100,000 by the end of 2024. The figures from the July forecast look slightly higher. According to analysts, the price of bitcoin could exceed $50,000 this year, and by the end of next year, it might reach $120,000. "Increased miner profitability per mined BTC means they can sell less, preserving the inflow of funds, which reduces the net supply of the asset and leads to a price increase," explained Geoff Kendrick, the bank's analyst.

– The involvement of major investment firms in the race to launch spot bitcoin ETFs suggests that the leading cryptocurrency is no longer a "passing fad," stated Michael Sonnenshein, the CEO of Grayscale Investments. According to him, market participants are "responding positively to the inclusion of traditional financial institutions in bitcoin." "Recent news [...] underscores the resilience of this asset class in a broader sense, and many investors view [digital gold] as a unique investment opportunity," Sonnenshein added.

– Meta's new network Threads, often referred to as a Twitter clone, was launched on July 5. The user base of the new platform is approaching 100 million, largely due to Instagram users, though it is still far from matching Twitter's 450 million users.
It was previously reported that in the spring, eight popular cryptocurrency accounts on Twitter were hacked, resulting in the hackers acquiring nearly $1 million. It now seems that fraudsters have also turned their attention to the new network. Developers from the decentralized finance platform Wombex Finance reported the appearance of a counterfeit duplicate account on Threads, suggesting that extortionists may be operating there. Leonidas, one of the popular NFT bloggers, reported a similar case.

– Michael Van De Poppe, the founder of venture company Eight, believes that bitcoin is preparing for a surge to $41,000. The popular analyst bases his opinion on the recent rise in the price of the leading cryptocurrency and Fibonacci levels. According to him, "the previous annual high for BTC was overcome in April. And now we are seeing increasingly higher highs, as traders build upward momentum and positions." "To continue the upward trend that we call a bull cycle, bitcoin needs to reach a new and clearer high," explains Michael Van De Poppe. "There are several points that can help determine the potential for further growth using Fibonacci levels. And right now, I would say we're facing a rally up to $41,000."
"There are two scenarios - growth above the current high, followed by some consolidation and retracement before a new rise. Or consolidation at current levels, followed by accelerated growth over the next few months. For bitcoin, this is pretty standard behaviour. And then we'll move towards $41,000 or even $42,500," predicts the analyst.

– Robert Kiyosaki, an economist and the author of the well-known book "Rich Dad, Poor Dad," has made another bold statement. He asserts that by 2024, bitcoin will reach a value of $120,000 per coin. Kiyosaki bases his forecast on the belief that BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) will soon adopt the gold standard and release their own gold-backed cryptocurrency. This could undermine the dominance of the US dollar in the global economy and lead to its devaluation. He also warns that many traditional financial institutions may go bankrupt in the near future due to their imprudent decisions and corruption.
In light of this, Kiyosaki recommends protecting one's funds from inflation by purchasing physical and digital gold. He also believes that bitcoin is one of the best ways not only to preserve but also to increase capital amid the instability of the financial system.
(For reference: On July 11, the Russian Parliament passed a law establishing legal norms for the introduction of the digital rouble.)

– Markus Thielen, Head of Research at crypto financial service Matrixport, forecasts a similar figure, albeit not at the start but by the end of 2024. He stated in an interview with CoinDesk that the quotations of the premier cryptocurrency could exceed the $125,000 mark by the end of next year. "On June 22, bitcoin reached a new annual high. Historically, this signal indicated the end of bearish and the beginning of bullish markets," he explained.
According to Thielen, the price of bitcoin could skyrocket by 123% over 12 months and by 310% over a year and a half. With such growth, the asset's price would rise to $65,539 and $125,731 respectively. The expert's forecast is based on the average returns of similar signals in the past: in August 2012, December 2015, May 2019, and August 2020. Thielen deliberately ignores the first case with a growth of 5,285% over 18 months, describing it as "epic" and "disproportional."

– Guy Turner, the host of the popular cryptocurrency channel Coin Bureau on YouTube, believes that in the medium term, there are two factors in favor of a massive growth of ethereum. The main one is the EIP-4844 update, which is expected to introduce a preliminary sharding (segmentation) mechanism for the network of the main altcoin. This update will be extremely important as it could, theoretically, give Ethereum the ability to scale on par with centralized systems.
The show host also noted that the issue of privacy remains very important. According to him, the developers of the second-largest cryptocurrency remain extremely concerned about this issue. "The huge focus on privacy and security is not surprising if you think about institutional investors. For them, it's a cornerstone," Turner highlighted. He recalled that Vitalik Buterin has raised this issue repeatedly, calling it "one of the three problems that need to be solved, otherwise ethereum will collapse.".

– Analyst and trader Michael Pizzino believes that a fall in the US dollar could lead to price increases for cryptocurrencies such as BTC, ETH, SOL, MATIC, XRP, Gala, and Render. In his opinion, the dollar is ready for a sharp devaluation. However, the expert does not consider an apocalyptic scenario of the collapse of the main global currency, since the dynamics of its exchange rate are slower than for other classes of financial assets.
Still, Pizzino predicts a steady downward trend for USD in the foreseeable period and a redistribution of funds in favor of digital assets. The macrographic chart suggests their upward trend, and considering the correlation between USD and BTC, a decline in the former could contribute to an increase in the value of the latter, which would then be followed by an increase in the value of other crypto assets.

– Lightning Labs, a company specializing in software development, has unveiled its latest product: a plugin for ChatGPT that allows sending Bitcoin payments. Lightning Labs also presented a set of tools for developers that allow AI models like GPT to carry out bitcoin transactions on the Lightning Network. This step aims to bring AI technologies closer to the world of cryptocurrency, paves the way for new innovations, and promotes the development of this field.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/

[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for July 17 - 21, 2023

EUR/USD: Falling Inflation Has Crushed the Dollar

So, we can either congratulate (or, conversely, upset) everyone with the onset of a global process of dedollarization. As Bloomberg reports, after the inflation rate in the US approached 3.0%, which is not far off the Federal Reserve's target of 2.0%, it seems like a turning point is approaching for the US economy.

Last week, the dollar faced the most significant pressure from national macroeconomic statistics in over a year. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) published on Wednesday, July 12, showed a 0.2% increase in June, falling short of the forecasted 0.3%. The annual indicator dropped from 4.0% to 3.0%, reaching the lowest level since March 2021. Core inflation also fell from 5.3% in May to 4.8% in June, against a forecast of 5.0%.

Against the backdrop of such steady deceleration in inflation, market participants began to factor into the quotations both a refusal of the second Federal Reserve rate hike, as well as an imminent turnaround in monetary policy. According to CME Group FedWatch data, the likelihood that the regulator will raise the rate again after a 25-basis point hike in July has fallen from 33% to 20%. As a result, most financial instruments have made a successful onslaught on the dollar. Meanwhile, the market completely ignored statements by Neel Kashkari, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, his Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond colleague Thomas Barkin, and Federal Reserve Board member Christopher Waller that inflation is still above the target level and hence the Federal Reserve is ready to continue tightening its policy (QT).

The story of the dollar's decline did not end there. EUR/USD continued its rally after the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Thursday, July 13, that the Producer Price Index (PPI) had grown by just 0.1% in annual terms in June (forecast was 0.4%, May value was 0.9%). As a result, the DXY Dollar Index broke the 100.00 support level and fell to the values of April 2022, and EUR/USD reached its highest level since February 2022, marking a high at 1.1244.

Many market participants decided that the best times for the US currency are over. The US economy will slow down, inflation will reach target values, and the Federal Reserve will begin a campaign to soften its monetary policy. As a result, the second half of 2023 and 2024 will become a period of strengthening for other currencies against the dollar. The result of such expectations was the fall of the Spot USD Index to a 15-month low, and hedge funds exclusively engaged in selling the US currency for the first time since March.

After a crushing week for the dollar, EUR/USD finished at 1.1228. As for near-term prospects, at the time of writing this overview, on the evening of July 14, 30% of analysts voted for the pair's further growth, 55% for its decline, and the remaining 15% took a neutral stance. Among trend indicators and oscillators on D1, 100% are on the side of the greens, although a third of oscillators signal the pair is overbought.

The nearest support for the pair is located around 1.1200, then at 1.1170, 1.1090-1.1110, 1.1045, 1.0995-1.1010, and 1.0895-1.0925. Bulls will meet resistance around 1.1245, 1.1290-1.1310, 1.1355, 1.1475, and 1.1715.

The blackout period leading up to the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which is set for July 26, will begin on July 15. Therefore, it's not worth expecting any statements from Federal Reserve officials in the coming week. The quotations will only be influenced by the macroeconomic data hitting the market. On Tuesday, July 18, data on US retail sales will be released. On Wednesday, July 19, we will find out what is happening with inflation (CPI) in the Eurozone. Then on Thursday, July 20, data on unemployment, manufacturing activity, and the housing market in the United States will come in.

GBP/USD: The Potential for Growth Remains

Back at the end of June, we speculated that GBP/USD might cover the remaining distance to 1.3000 in just a few weeks or even days. And we were right. In the current situation, the British pound did not miss an opportunity for growth: the peak of the week was recorded at the height of 1.3141, which corresponds to the levels of the end of March - beginning of April 2022. The final note of the five-day period sounded at the mark of 1.3092.

In addition to a weakening dollar, another driver of the pound's growth was the semi-annual report on the assessment of the UK's financial system. It demonstrated the resilience of the national economy against the backdrop of a prolonged cycle of raising the key interest rate. Unlike several US banks, major UK banks maintain high capitalization, and their profits are growing. This suggests that they can withstand several more rate hikes this year. It is expected that at its next meeting on August 3, the Bank of England (BoE) will raise the rate by another 50 basis points (bps) to 5.50%. And it will do so regardless of potential economic problems, as the fight against rising prices is more important. Consumer inflation (CPI) in the country in May was 8.7% (for comparison, over the same period in Germany it was 6.1%, in France 4.5%, in Japan 3.2%, and in the USA 4.0% in May and 3.0% in June).

The UK's labour market is also pushing inflation upwards. Even despite the increase in the interest rate, the latest report noted an acceleration in wage growth to 6.9% YoY. Excluding the turbulence during the Covid-19 pandemic, this is the fastest pace since 2001. And although unemployment is rising alongside wages, its current level of 4.0% is still historically low. Yes, in August of last year it was lower - 3.5%, but what is a growth of only 0.5% almost over a year? It's nothing! (Or almost nothing).

In general, in the foreseeable future, there are no major obstacles that would prevent the Bank of England from continuing to tighten monetary policy. Thus, the prospect of further rate hikes will continue to fill the sails of the British currency with a tailwind. And, according to a number of analysts, GBP/USD, having broken through the 1.3000 resistance, may now aim for an assault on the 1.3500 level.

However, this does not mean that such growth will happen right now. "In a sense, the pound has already experienced overvaluation against the backdrop of a hawkish Bank of England and is unlikely to show strong results against the current bearish phase of the dollar. However, traders will now be targeting 1.3300 on GBP/USD assuming we can close the week above 1.3000," believe strategists from the largest banking group in the Netherlands, ING.

The possibility of the pound's consolidation in the coming week is also suggested by Canada's Scotiabank, not ruling out pullbacks to 1.2900-1.3000 and further growth to the area of 1.3300. The bullish sentiment is also supported by Singapore's United Overseas Bank. Its economists believe that "the strong growth momentum suggests that GBP/USD is unlikely to pull back. On the contrary, it is more likely to continue moving towards the upper boundary of the weekly exponential moving average. This key resistance level is currently at 1.3335."

When it comes to the median forecast for the near future, at the moment only 25% of experts have spoken out for further growth of the pair. The opposite position was taken by 50%, the remaining 25% maintained neutrality. As for technical analysis, all 100% of trend indicators and oscillators are pointing upwards, although a quarter of the latter are in the overbought zone. If the pair moves south, it will encounter support levels and zones – 1.3050-1.3060, then 1.2980-1.3000, 1.2940, 1.2850-1.2875, 1.2740-1.2755, 1.2675-1.2695, 1.2570, 1.2435-1.2450, 1.2300-1.2330. In the case of the pair's rise, it will meet resistance at levels 1.3125-1.3140, 1.3185-1.3210, 1.3300-1.3335, 1.3425, 1.3605.

The events of the upcoming week worth noting in the calendar are Wednesday, July 19, when the value of such an important inflation indicator as the United Kingdom's Consumer Price Index (CPI) will become known. Towards the end of the working week, on Friday, July 21, data on retail sales in the country will also be published. These figures can have a significant impact on the exchange rate, as they provide insights into consumer spending and overall economic activity, which are key factors in the Bank of England's decisions on interest rates.

USD/JPY: The Yen Pleased Investors Once Again

For the second week in a row, yen investors have been rewarded for their patience. USD/JPY continued its descent from the Moon to Earth, marking a local minimum at 137.23. Thus, since June 30th, in just two weeks, the Japanese currency has gained more than 780 points against the US dollar.

Compared to other currencies included in the DXY basket, the yen appears to be the primary beneficiary. The main ace up this safe-haven currency's sleeve is investor fears about a recession in the US and narrowing yield differentials on US government bonds. The correlation between Treasuries and USD/JPY is no secret to anyone. If the yield on US Treasury bills falls, the yen shows growth against the dollar. Last week, following the publication of CPI data, the yield on 10-year US papers slipped from 3.95% to 3.85%, and on 2-year papers – from 4.85% to 4.70%.

Speculation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may finally adjust its ultra-loose monetary policy towards tightening in the coming months also continues to favor the yen. We are talking about speculation here, as no clear signals have been given by the country's Government or the BoJ leadership on this matter.

Let's recall that at the French Societe Generale, it's expected that the yield on 5-year US bonds will fall to 2.66% in a year's time, which will allow USD/JPY to break below 130.00. If, at the same time, the yield on Japanese government bonds (JGBs) remains at its current level, the pair could even drop to 125.00. Economists at Danske Bank are forecasting a USD/JPY rate below 130.00 within a 6–12-month horizon. Similar forecasts are made by strategists at BNP Paribas: they are aiming for a level of 130.00 by the end of this year and 123.00 by the end of 2024. Against this backdrop, many hedge funds have begun active selling of dollars and buying of yen.

Last week, USD/JPY ended at 138.75 after a correction to the north. As of this review, 45% of analysts believe the pair will resume growth in the coming days. Only 15% support further fall, and 40% maintain a wait-and-see stance. The D1 indicators are as follows: 100% of oscillators are coloured red, but 10% signal oversold. The balance between green and red among trend indicators is 35% to 60%. The nearest support level is in the 138.05-138.30 zone, followed by 137.25-137.50, 135.95, 133.75-134.15, 132.80-133.00, 131.25, 130.60, 129.70, 128.10, and 127.20. The closest resistance is 1.3895-1.3905, then 139.85, 140.45-140.60, 141.40-141.60, 142.20, 143.75-144.00, 145.15-145.30, 146.85-147.15, 148.85, and finally the October 2022 high of 151.95.

No significant economic information related to the Japanese economy is expected in the upcoming week. However, traders may want to note that Monday, July 17th is a holiday in Japan: the country is observing Marine Day.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Karl Marx and $120,000 for BTC

After the release of impressive consumer inflation data in the US last week, the markets became confident in the Fed's imminent abandonment of monetary restriction and a turn towards lowering the key rate. The dollar responded to this with a sharp fall, and risky financial instruments - with growth. The S&P500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq Composite stock indices went up, but not bitcoin. The BTC/USD pair continued to move sideways along the Pivot Point $30,600, trapped in a narrow range. It seems as if it has completely forgotten about its direct correlation with stocks and its inverse correlation with the dollar. On Thursday, July 13, after the release of the American PPI, bitcoin still tried to break through to the north, but unsuccessfully: the very next day it returned within the limits of the sideways channel.

Why did this happen? What prevented digital gold from soaring along with the stock market? There don't seem to be any super serious reasons for this. Although analysts do point to three factors that are weighing on the crypto market.

The first of these is the low profitability of mining. Due to the increasing computational complexity, it remains close to a historical minimum. Moreover, it is accompanied by the fear of a possible new price drop. This is pushing miners to sell not only freshly mined coins (about 900 BTC per day), but also accumulated reserves. According to Bitcoinmagazine data, miners have transferred a record volume of coins to exchanges in the last six years.

In addition to miners, the US Government is contributing to the increase in supply. On just one day, July 12, it transferred $300 million worth of coins to crypto exchanges. And this is the second negative factor. Finally, the third is the bankrupt Mt.Gox exchange, which must pay customers everything that remains in its accounts by the end of October. This equates to approximately 135,900 BTC, totalling roughly $4.8 billion. Payments will be made in cryptocurrency, which will then be available on the market for sale and exchange for fiat.

Of course, all of this does not add positivity, increasing the supply but not the demand. However, considering that the average trading volume of bitcoin exceeds $12 billion daily, the figures mentioned do not seem that apocalyptic. In our view, the main reason for the current sideways trend is a balance between positives and negatives. The positives are the applications to launch spot btc-ETFs from such giants as BlackRock, Invesco, Fidelity, and others. The negatives are the increasing regulatory pressure on the crypto market by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

It should be noted that the SEC has previously rejected all applications for spot BTC-ETFs and is not currently eager to give them the green light. Therefore, the struggle for these funds could be drawn out over many months. For instance, a final decision on BlackRock's application is not expected until mid-Q3 2023 at the earliest, and no later than mid-March 2024, just a month before the next BTC halving. The halving could be the trigger for not only the subsequent, but also the preceding growth of BTC.

According to economists at Standard Chartered Bank, the price of bitcoin may exceed $50,000 this year, and it could reach $120,000 by the end of the next year. In the view of bank analyst Geoff Kendrick, as the price rises, miners will return to a strategy of accumulation. As already mentioned, they are currently selling everything they mine. However, when bitcoin is trading at $50,000, their sales will decrease from the current 900 coins to 180-270 per day. Such a decrease in supply should lead to further growth in the value of the asset. In general, everything is in line with Karl Marx's economic theory of supply and demand.

In addition to miners, institutional investors are also expected to show interest in accumulating bitcoins, in anticipation not only of the launch of spot BTC-ETFs and the halving, but also of a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and a weakening of the dollar. As Grayscale Investments CEO Michael Sonnenshein recently stated, it has become clear that the first cryptocurrency is no longer a "passing fad". "Recent news [...] underscores the resilience of this asset class in a broader sense, and many investors view [digital gold] as a unique investment opportunity."

Analyst and trader Michael Pizzino also believes that the dollar is ready to significantly depreciate. However, he does not consider an apocalyptic scenario of a collapse of the world's main currency, as the dynamics of its exchange rate are slower than those of other classes of financial assets. However, Pizzino predicts a steady downward trend in USD in the foreseeable period and a redistribution of funds in favor of digital assets. The macrographic chart suggests their upward trend, and given the correlation between USD and BTC, a fall in the former could contribute to an increase in the value of the latter, followed by growth in other significant crypto assets.

Robert Kiyosaki, author of the famous book "Rich Dad, Poor Dad", claims that by 2024, bitcoin will reach the $120,000 mark. The economist bases his forecast on the fact that BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) will soon move to the gold standard and issue their own cryptocurrency backed by gold. This could undermine the dominance of the U.S. dollar in the world economy and cause its devaluation. He also warns that many traditional financial institutions may go bankrupt in the near future due to their imprudent decisions and corruption. In this regard, Kiyosaki recommends protecting your money from inflation by buying physical gold and bitcoin.

A similar figure, only not at the beginning, but by the end of 2024, was named by the head of research at the crypto-financial service Matrixport, Markus Thielen. He stated in an interview with CoinDesk that the quotes of the first cryptocurrency could overcome the $125,000 mark by the end of next year. "On June 22, bitcoin reached a new annual high. This signal historically indicated the end of bearish and the beginning of bullish markets," he explained.

According to Thielen, the price of bitcoin can soar by 123% over 12 months and by 310% over a year and a half. With such growth, the asset will rise to $65,539 and $125,731, respectively. The expert's forecast is based on the average profitability of similar signals in the past: in August 2012, December 2015, May 2019, and August 2020. (Thielen intentionally ignores the first case with growth of 5,285% over 18 months, calling it "epic" and "disproportionate".).

As for a more short-term forecast, Michael Van De Poppe, founder of venture company Eight, believes that bitcoin is preparing for a leap to $41,000. The popular analyst bases his opinion on the recent growth of the first cryptocurrency rate and Fibonacci levels. According to him, "the previous annual high for BTC was overcome in April. And now we are seeing increasingly higher highs as traders build up bullish momentum and positions." "To continue the uptrend, which we call a bull cycle, bitcoin needs to reach a new and clearer high," explains Michael Van De Poppe. "There are several points that allow determining the possibilities of further growth using Fibonacci levels. And now I would say that there is a rally to $41,000 ahead."

"There are two scenarios: a rise above the current maximum, followed by some consolidation and a rollback before a new growth. Or consolidation at current levels, and then accelerated growth in the coming months. For bitcoin, this is pretty standard behaviour. And then we will go to $41,000 or even $42,500," the analyst predicts.

As of writing this review on the evening of Friday, July 14, BTC/USD is trading around $30,180. The total market capitalization of the crypto market has slightly increased and stands at $1.198 trillion ($1.176 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is in the Greed zone and stands at 60 points (55 points a week ago).
 

NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

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[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews of the Week

– Mike Novogratz, the CEO of blockchain company Galaxy Digital, recommends buying bitcoin, pointing to the rising US national debt. In just the first week of July, the country's debt to creditors has increased by $1 trillion, reaching a total of $32.47 trillion. It is evident that this could destabilize the financial system, lead to another round of inflation, and result in a drop in the dollar's value. "This is madness... Buy bitcoin," Novogratz urged in response to a publication about the escalating debt of the United States.

– However, not everyone, like Mike Novogratz, foresees a bright future for BTC. According to the educational project 99bitcoins, bitcoin has been declared dead 474 times. The published "obituaries" spoke of the "insolvency and uselessness" of the primary cryptocurrency, asserting that the Bitcoin network is a "bubble," an "elaborate Ponzi scheme," and a "cryptocurrency dummy, with no real substantiated value."
Among the authors of these "posthumous messages" in 2023, there were quite a few well-known names in the financial world. These included Chamath Palihapitiya, the founder and CEO of venture company Social Capital; Robin Brooks, the chief economist of the Institute of International Finance (IIF); Harvey Jones from the British news agency Daily Express; Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JPMorgan Chase; TV host Jim Cramer; and John Reed Stark, a former official of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Vitalik Buterin has recently also criticized bitcoin. In the view of the creator of ethereum, the flagship cryptocurrency lacks scalable second-layer solutions to become more than just a payment network.

– Crypto market experts have drawn the results for Q2 2023. These three months proved to be turbulent, and the industry experienced a series of ups and downs. Most high-capitalization projects displayed negative dynamics during this period, primarily due to ongoing legal disputes between the SEC and major crypto exchanges Binance and Coinbase. This had a significant negative impact on many coins in the TOP-100, as the SEC classified them as securities.
However, amidst the turbulence, bitcoin, and some other digital currencies, such as BCH and LTC, demonstrated high performance. According to the CryptoRank report, their success was driven by news related to exchange-traded funds and institutional listings. Bitcoin, in particular, delivered an impressive return that outperformed traditional financial instruments, overshadowing the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indexes, as well as gold and silver, in the first half of 2023.
Undoubtedly, one of the most significant events was the application for a spot bitcoin ETF by BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager. This event particularly benefited BTC, which reached a new high for 2023. BlackRock's initiative started a chain of events where numerous asset managers also began either renewing or submitting new applications for spot bitcoin ETFs. It is important to note that the SEC has previously rejected all such applications. In this case, a final decision on BlackRock's application is expected no earlier than the middle of Q3 2023 and no later than mid-March 2024, just a month before the next BTC halving.

– The crypto market traditionally experiences a lull during the summer. Admittedly, trading volumes increased in June thanks to spot bitcoin ETF applications from BlackRock and other companies, but overall, Q2 witnessed a decrease in trading activity. According to CryptoRank, crypto exchanges recorded a decline in trading volume in Q2, reaching the lowest level in the last two years.

– The bitcoin halving in 2024 is tentatively set to take place on April 12. It has the potential to exert a fundamental influence on both the price of BTC and the overall cryptocurrency market, as it is a crucial mechanism in the primary cryptocurrency's protocol. Every 210,000 blocks, or once every four years, it halves the reward that miners receive for mining a block. This is done to create a deflationary environment and to support the value of BTC by reducing the rate of new coin issuance. (The total emission size is set at 21 million coins.)
Originally, from 2009, miners received 50 BTC for each generated block. In 2012, the reward decreased to 25 BTC, in 2016 – to 12.5 BTC, and after 2020 – to 6.25 BTC. When the 2024 halving occurs, the mining reward will be reduced to 3.125 coins.
Historical data suggest that after this event, the bitcoin exchange rate may once again sharply increase. After the 2012 halving, the BTC price rose from $11 in November 2012 to $1,100 in November 2013. Following the 2016 halving, the price increased from $640 in July to $20,000 in December 2017. The 2020 halving enabled the coin's price to rise from $9,000 in May 2020 to a peak of $69,000 in November 2021. However, despite this statistic, experts warn that past results do not guarantee their repetition in the future.

– After the 2024 halving and the halving of the reward for a mined block, miners will have to adapt to a new reality. They will need to acquire more powerful and energy-efficient equipment or upgrade their existing ones. According to forecasts, many small companies will most likely leave the market or be acquired by larger players. As a result, we should expect the mining market to become centralized, falling under the control of a few large pools. This would make the network more susceptible to manipulations and hacking attacks. However, a sharp increase in the price of bitcoin could at least partially offset these negative factors.

– Analysts asked ChatGPT to talk about some potential events that could have a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market. The Artificial Intelligence's response was as follows:
1. Regulation: Legislative or regulatory changes in key countries can greatly affect the cryptocurrency market. If important jurisdictions adopt laws that severely limit the use or trade of cryptocurrencies, it could strongly affect their prices and accessibility.
2. Large-scale hacking attacks: If large-scale hacking attacks occur on major cryptocurrency exchanges or wallets, it could cause panic in the market and lead to significant losses.
3.Technological breakthroughs: New technologies or improvements in blockchain and cryptocurrencies can also have a significant impact. This can include new consensus protocols, improved scalability, or enhanced privacy protection methods.
4. Large companies' investments: If major companies like Apple, Google, or Amazon start actively investing in cryptocurrencies or integrating them into their services, it could significantly increase the value of cryptocurrencies and overall interest in them.
5. Global economic events: Cryptocurrencies are often considered a "safe haven" during economic instability. So global economic crises or significant changes in inflation, interest rates, or currency exchange rates could also influence the crypto market.

– The former CEO of BitMEX cryptocurrency exchange, Arthur Hayes, has speculated that bitcoin might become the ideal currency for artificial intelligence (AI) systems. In his opinion, digital gold is superior to other assets in this respect, as it possesses characteristics such as decentralization, resistance to censorship, proven deficit, and dependence of intrinsic value on energy costs. "There is nothing today that can compare to bitcoin in these parameters," wrote Hayes.
He believes that in the future, investors may reevaluate the first cryptocurrency due to its "adoption" by artificial intelligence. According to Hayes, this will occur due to a desire to "avoid inflation in the fiat financial system" and to "capture part of the next phase of human and computer evolution." The former CEO of BitMEX added that by 2025-2026, the AI economy will account for up to 50% of global GDP, against which backdrop bitcoin will reach $760,000.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

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[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for July 24 - 28, 2023

EUR/USD: Awaiting the Federal Reserve and ECB Meetings

When the DXY Dollar Index dropped to April 2022 levels (99.65) on July 14, many market participants concluded that the best days for the American currency were over. Inflation is nearing target levels, and in order not to suffocate the economy, the Federal Reserve will soon initiate a campaign to ease its monetary policy. However, things aren't that straightforward. After reaching a peak of 1.1275 on Tuesday, July 18, the EUR/USD pair reversed and started to decline.

In general, against the backdrop of weak macroeconomic reports coming from the United States, the dollar could have given up a few dozen or even a couple of hundred points to the euro. Industrial production in the country is falling for the second month in a row, with a 0.5% decrease in June. Retail sales, expected to grow by 0.5%, only increased by 0.2% (a 0.5% increase in May). The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's Manufacturing Activity Index continues to be in the negative territory (-13.5). The real estate market data also turned out worse than predicted. For instance, the number of new constructions in the U.S. fell by 8.0% in June, following a 15.7% increase in the previous month. The number of issued construction permits also dropped by 3.7% after a 5.6% rise in May. Sales in the secondary housing market were below the previous values (4.16M in June, 4.30M in May, forecast 4.20M). However, the labour market data turned out slightly better than expected - the number of initial jobless claims was 228K (previous value 237K, forecast 242K). Yet, this is a highly volatile indicator, and it may not reflect the actual situation, but the market was pleased with this bit of positivity.

Overall, the published macro-statistics vividly illustrate the cooling of the American economy. The worsening situation in the real estate market clearly signals the pressure that high-interest rates exert on this important sector. It's enough to recall the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2008, which began with a mortgage crisis in the U.S.

In such a situation, the hawkish course of the Federal Reserve is likely nearing its end. Almost all Bloomberg experts anticipate that on July 26, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will raise the interest rate by 25 basis points to 5.5%. There's a possibility that the hike could be even less: not 25, but just 10 basis points. Afterwards, the regulator is expected to take a wait-and-see approach, which could last until the end of the year. The futures market estimates the probability of a rate increase to 5.75% in 2023 at 28%.

However, there's not just the American currency on the EUR/USD scale but also the pan-European one. Revised statistics show that in Q1, the Eurozone's GDP was almost at zero, the economy is stagnating, and its growth prospects appear rather weak. It is clear that the hike in the euro's key interest rate, which has grown from 0% to 4.00% in this tightening cycle, has had and continues to have a negative impact. The lagging effect of monetary tightening is becoming more and more palpable.

On the other hand, despite a 400 basis point increase in rates, inflation (CPI) in the Eurozone is declining quite slowly - in June, it was 5.5% year-on-year compared to 6.1% a month earlier. It is still very far from its target level of 2.0%.

Therefore, on one hand, we see significant price pressure, on the other – the difficulties the EU economy is experiencing. In such an ambiguous situation, the further steps of the European Central Bank officials also seem uncertain. More clarity regarding future monetary policy is expected to emerge at the upcoming European Central Bank Monetary Policy Committee meeting on Thursday, July 27. At least, that's what market participants are hoping for.

Even somewhat unclear data from the US labour market was enough to trigger a DXY correction northwards and send EUR/USD south. The final note of the working week was set at 1.1125. As for the near-term prospects, at the time of writing this review, the evening of July 21, only 20% of analysts voted for the pair's further rise, 50% for its fall, and the remaining 30% took a neutral stance. As for technical analysis, on D1, 75% of trend indicators point up, 25% point down. Of the oscillators, 85% recommend buying, while the remaining 15% take a neutral stance. The pair's nearest support is located around 1.1090-1.1110, 1.1045, 1.0995-1.1010, 1.0895-1.0925, 1.0845-1.0865, 1.0800, 1.0760, 1.0670, 1.0620-1.0635. Bulls will meet resistance around 1.1145, then 1.1170, 1.1230-1.1245, 1.1275-1.1290, 1.1355, 1.1475, and 1.1715.

Undoubtedly, the key events of the upcoming week will be the FED meeting on July 26 and the ECB meeting on July 27, along with the subsequent press conferences held by the leaders of these regulators. Additionally, on Monday, July 24, numerous preliminary business activity data (PMI) will come from Germany, the Eurozone, and the US. The next day, the Eurozone Bank Lending Survey will be published, and the value of the US Consumer Confidence Index will be known. On Thursday, data on durable goods orders will arrive from the United States, along with real estate and unemployment statistics. Finally, at the very end of the working week, on Friday, July 28, we will learn the preliminary data on inflation (CPI) in Germany, as well as personal consumption expenditure data in the US.

GBP/USD: 50 Basis Points or is it 25 After All?

The next meeting of the Bank of England (BoE) is set for August 3. Some market participants are inclined to believe that at this meeting, the regulator will raise the base rate for the pound by another 50 basis points (bps) to 5.50%. Economists from the French financial conglomerate Societe Generale have formulated three main reasons why the BoE will take this step.

Firstly, inflation in the service sector and wages may have peaked in June, but both indicators remain uncomfortably high. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), although it fell over the month from 8.7% to 7.9% (with a forecast of 8.2%), is still far from the target level of 2.0%.

Secondly, as Societe Generale believes, investors are avoiding UK bonds due to persistent inflation in the country. Such high and stable inflation means that investors require higher compensation for holding UK bonds compared to US Treasuries and German bonds. To reassure investors, it is necessary at this stage to continue a strict monetary policy.

Thirdly, in recent weeks the Bank of England and its governor Andrew Bailey have been heavily criticized for sticking to a soft monetary course for too long, thereby allowing a powerful surge in inflation. And now the BoE may overdo it in its desire to prove that its critics are wrong. This can lead to more aggressive actions, such as a significant rate hike. However, we must also consider the possibility that the BoE could choose a more conservative 25 basis point rate hike instead.

Indeed, not everyone agrees with the arguments put forth by the French economists. For instance, their colleagues at the German Commerzbank have noted that consumer prices (CPI) in the UK grew at a much slower rate in June than was expected. Therefore, the market's built-in expectations for a rate increase are too high and require a downward correction. This, in turn, will lead to a weakening of the pound. A similar viewpoint was expressed by strategists at the Netherlands' largest banking group, ING, who believe the rate will be increased by a maximum of 25 basis points.

The above-mentioned CPI data was published on Wednesday, July 19. However, in addition to this, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) in the UK also published retail trade data for the country on Friday, July 21. It turned out that in June, the volume of retail trade increased by 0.7% on a monthly basis, compared to the expected 0.2% and 0.1% previously. The main indicator of retail sales, excluding auto fuel sales, increased by 0.8% over the month compared to the forecasted 0.1% and 0% in May. The annual volume of retail sales in the UK fell by -1.0% in June against the forecasted -1.5% and May's decline of -2.3%, while the base volume of retail sales dropped by -0.9% against the expected -1.6% and the previous -1.9%.

After the release of these favorable data, the UK Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt stated that "we will start seeing results if we stick to our plan to halve inflation". The minister's words could be interpreted as support for further tightening of the BoE's hawkish policy. However, the markets practically ignored them, and the strengthening dollar continued to pressure GBP/USD, which ended the five-day trading period at the 1.2852 mark.

As for the pair's movement, it will, of course, depend on the decisions and statements of the Fed on July 26. Undoubtedly, the ECB's meeting on July 27 will also influence the pound through EUR/GBP. But all this is in the near future. As for the present, at the time of writing this review, the median forecast of experts for GBP/USD looks maximally neutral: a third of them voted for the pair's growth, a third - for its fall, and a third maintained neutrality. On D1 oscillators, 35% are coloured green, 25% - red, and the remaining 40% - neutral grey. Among trend indicators, 60% sided with the green, and 40% sided with the red. In case of the pair's movement south, it will meet support levels and zones at 1.2800-1.2815, then 1.2675-1.2695, 1.2570, 1.2435-1.2450, 1.2300-1.2330, 1.2190-1.2210. In case of the pair's growth, it will meet resistance at 1.2940, then 1.2980-1.3000, 1.3050-1.3060, 1.3125-1.3140, 1.3185-1.3210, 1.3300-1.3335, 1.3425, 1.3605.

Apart from the FED and ECB meetings, another notable event in the upcoming week's calendar is on Monday, July 24, when the preliminary business activity data (PMI) for various sectors of the UK economy will be published.

USD/JPY: Two Steps Forward, One Step Back

The Russian revolutionary Vladimir Lenin wrote a book in 1904 titled "One Step Forward, Two Steps Back". What happened to the yen over the past three weeks can be titled as "Two Steps Forward, One Step Back". For the first two weeks of July, the Japanese currency grew, and for the third, it gave back more than half of its gains. And while its peers - the euro and pound, retreated thanks to a stronger dollar, in the case of USD/JPY, a significant blow to the national currency was not dealt by the US, but by a fall in inflation in Japan.

It should be recalled that at the time of writing the previous forecast, the number of supporters of yen weakening was three times the number of those expecting its further strengthening (45% versus 15%). And the majority turned out to be correct. The Inflation Report published on Friday, July 21st, sent the Japanese currency into a knockdown. USD/JPY jumped by more than 1%. It turned out that despite the ultra-dovish policy of the BoJ and a negative interest rate of -0.1%, consumer price growth has decreased. Despite a forecast of 3.5%, in reality, inflation (CPI) in June was 3.3%. The consumer price index excluding food and energy fell to 4.2% compared to the previous value of 4.3%.

These data, if not completely, then at least for a long time, buried hopes for a tightening of the monetary policy of the Japanese Central Bank. Moreover, the Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, who spoke the day before, supported the current monetary policy of the regulator. Therefore, with a high degree of probability, at its meeting on Friday, July 28, the Bank of Japan will leave the interest rate unchanged. And to maintain the course of the national currency, if necessary, as before, it will resort to currency interventions.

In the meantime, to stop the yen's fall, Japan's Chief Currency Diplomat Masato Kanda stepped in with a "verbal intervention". In particular, he stated that he "never felt a limit to the possibilities for currency interventions" and that when it comes to them, he takes various steps to avoid running out of "ammunition".

The situation has somewhat calmed down after the comments made by Masato Kanda, with USD/JPY ending the past week at a mark of 141.80. At the time of writing this review, 25% of analysts predict the pair will continue its upward movement in the upcoming days, 55% voted for a downward trend, and 20% took a neutral position. The readings of the D1 indicators are as follows: among the oscillators, 25% are coloured red, 50% green, and 25% grey. Trend indicators show a clear advantage for the greens at 90%, with only 10% on the opposite side. The nearest support level is located in the zone of 141.40, followed by 140.45-140.60, 139.85, 138.95-139.05, 138.05-138.30, then 137.25-137.50, 135.95, 133.75-134.15, 132.80-133.00, 131.25, 130.60, 129.70, 128.10, and 127.20. The nearest resistance is at 142.20, followed by 143.75-144.00, 145.05-145.30, 146.85-147.15, 148.85, and finally the peak of October 2022 at 151.95.

Besides the Bank of Japan's meeting, no significant economic information pertaining to the country's economy is anticipated in the upcoming week.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Litecoin Halving - Rehearsal for Bitcoin Halving

Observers note that the peak of the Dollar Index DXY in 2023 almost coincided with bitcoin's trough. There's nothing surprising about this: BTC/USD is like a scale. If the dollar gets heavier, bitcoin becomes lighter. Last week, the rise of the American currency led to a weakening of the digital one. It's worth noting that bitcoin is desperately trying to hold onto the support zone at $29,850 and avoid a collapse to the June lows around $25,000.

The relationship between BTC and USD is logical and understandable. However, some crypto enthusiasts are trying to position bitcoin as the primary, leading asset, with the dollar trailing behind like a dog's tail. As an argument, they cite, for example, the fact that bitcoin entered a horizontal channel by the middle of last year, while the Dollar Index caught up with it a few weeks later. If you look closely, you can find many such moments on the charts. But in our opinion, one should not overestimate the significance of the main cryptocurrency.

At the moment, many experts and influencers continue to paint a bright future for bitcoin. Although the heights of target horizons differ by times, sometimes even by tens of times. For example, Standard Chartered economist Geoff Kendrick recently stated that his financial corporation has adopted a more optimistic forecast for bitcoin's market value, targeting the $120,000 level by the end of 2024.

In response, BBC World analyst Glen Goodman wrote that these $120,000 "seem more like a figure pulled out of thin air than a genuinely justified forecast." He believes that the authors of such predictions are siding with the bulls and are not considering a number of key factors. The most important of them is that the US financial regulators are ruthlessly cracking down on the crypto industry, inundating its participants with lawsuits and investigations. Moreover, Goodman refers to forecasts by American economists who expect a protracted recession next year, the consequences of which can seriously suppress activity in the financial markets, including the digital asset market.

Unlike Glen Goodman, Real Vision CEO and former Goldman Sachs top manager Raoul Pal believes that economic troubles, confusion in the banking sector, and the real estate market crisis are beneficial for bitcoin, which serves as a defensive asset against this backdrop. According to Raoul Pal, a bullish rally for digital gold is inevitable, and BTC can easily reach the $50,000 mark later this year.

Renowned analyst under the nickname PlanB, on the other hand, does not believe that a powerful pump of the flagship cryptocurrency can occur before the halving in April 2024. His forecast is based on using the MA-200 as an indicator. This line increases on average by $500 a month, so in nine months it will be at the $32,000 mark. According to PlanB, it is possible that the coin's price might even be about 50% above this mark, but even then, it would be only $48,000.

Michael Van De Poppe, the founder of venture firm Eight, has clarified his prediction from last week. He believes that the current trend is breaking the minimums, as a result of which bitcoin could drop to $29,500 and even $29,000. However, he thinks that such a price movement could precede a bullish rally, during which the main cryptocurrency will raise its rate first to $32,500, then to $34,000, followed by a surge to $38,000.

Shifting from short- and medium-term forecasts to long-term, one could mention the opinion of Catherine Wood, CEO of ARK Invest. It seems that she is not particularly interested in jumps to $38,000 and even to $120,000. Once again, she reaffirmed her forecast that in about seven years, against the backdrop of inflation and a banking crisis, bitcoin will trade at $1,500,000 per coin, or at least at $625,000.

Against the backdrop of Catherine Wood's boundless optimism, data from CryptoVantage, whose employees surveyed 1,000 crypto investors from the U.S., comes as a cold sobering shower. It turned out that only 23% of them believe that the Bitcoin rate will reach its historical maximum of $68,917 next year. 47% think that the coin's price will rise to this mark within five years. 78% are confident that BTC will eventually return to its all-time high, but in an uncertain future. And 9% believe that this will never happen again.

We've paid significant attention to the upcoming bitcoin halving in April 2023 in our previous reviews. Let's now remember that the Litecoin halving is due quite soon, on August 2nd of this year. The reward for mining a block will be reduced to 6.25 LTC. Given that Litecoin is a fork of bitcoin, and its total emission is capped at 84 million coins, it will be interesting to observe the changes in Litecoin's price and attempt to forecast bitcoin's performance after its future halving based on these observations.

At the time of writing this review, on the evening of Friday, July 21, BTC/USD is trading around $29,850. The total capitalization of the crypto market has barely changed and stands at $1.202 trillion ($1.198 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is in the Neutral zone, at 50 points (down from 60 points a week ago).
 

NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

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[Stan NordFX]

CryptoNews of the Week

– Robert Kennedy Jr., a U.S. presidential candidate from the Democratic Party, advocates for the support of the U.S. dollar using hard assets such as gold, silver, platinum, and bitcoin. The politician believes that this move could stabilize the economy, curb inflation, and usher in a new era of financial stability and prosperity in America.
Market strategist Todd "Bubba" Horwitz responded to Robert Kennedy Jr.'s inclusion of bitcoin in the basket of hard assets. According to him, this will enable bitcoin to reach a price of $35,000, and then $40,000, within the next six months. Horwitz highly praised the growing recognition of BTC by regulatory bodies such as the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which will also contribute to the growth of the leading cryptocurrency.

– The implementation of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) worldwide varies significantly: projects are divided into retail ones, intended for citizen use, and so-called wholesale ones, geared towards interbank transfers and large businesses. Currently, 125 central banks are working on launching national CBDCs, but only three countries, Nigeria, the Bahamas, and Jamaica, have already put their CBDCs into full operation. Meanwhile, Ecuador and Haiti have abandoned this idea due to the high cost of the projects and low demand from the population. Ecuador launched its project as early as 2014 but withdrew it as the number of users did not exceed 3% of the country's population.
Even a number of senators resist the development of a digital dollar in the U.S. In a pre-emptive move, the governors of Texas and Miami banned its circulation within their states in May of this year.

– Bloomberg Senior Analyst Eric Balchunas believes that the approval of applications to launch spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S. will open up the bitcoin market to $30 trillion in capital. According to forecasts by analytics firm Fundstrat, the launch of a bitcoin ETF could increase daily demand for bitcoin by $100 million. In this case, even before the halving scheduled for April 2024, the price of BTC could rise by 521% from current levels and reach up to $180,000.

– Craig Steven Wright, an Australian computer scientist and businessman, has claimed since 2016 that he invented bitcoin. He filed a lawsuit against 13 BTC developers and several crypto companies, including Blockstream, Coinbase, and Block, alleging they infringe his copyright to the first cryptocurrency.
However, Wright lost the copyright lawsuit in February. The court deemed his arguments insufficient. Now, a UK court has satisfied an appeal that has granted Wright the right to claim copyright over bitcoin.
Whether Wright truly created bitcoin and hid under the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto will be determined by the court during a trial in January 2024. "Copyright protection issues will be resolved during a full court hearing, but only if Dr. Wright demonstrates that he is Satoshi Nakamoto," the court statement said. Meanwhile, Wright's lawyers stated that he is "pleased" with the outcome of the case and acknowledged his high chances of winning.

– Experts at SlowMist reported the discovery of a phishing program in the App Store aimed at stealing user data and cryptocurrencies. It mimics legitimate applications and thereby ends up on the user's device. The victim is then asked to enter their Apple ID password. Once they have this information, the malicious actors add their phone numbers to the trusted list for Apple's two-factor authentication. This allows them to control account permissions and gain full access to its contents. To mask their activity, the hackers create additional Apple IDs and use the victim's resources through the family account access feature.

– Just like on traditional markets, changes in investor sentiment on the crypto market follow certain patterns. Considering the so-called "Wall Street Cheat Sheet," which describes the psychology of market cycles and the corresponding emotions of traders, after passing through the pessimistic phases of "panic," "capitulation," and "depression," bitcoin is moving towards the "hope" stage.
According to analyst CryptoYoddha's chart, the cryptocurrency is currently going through the "disbelief" or "sucker's rally" stage. The next step is the "hope" of price recovery, potentially to $50,000 and above by the end of 2023. The upward movement will correspond to the passage through the stages of "optimism," "belief," "thrill," and finally, "euphoria."

– An analyst known as Trader Tardigrade believes that bitcoin is replicating the same price structure as it did in the period from 2013 to 2018, when it followed the pattern of transitioning from the "previous peak" to the "top-1", which preceded "top-2" and the "retest" (the stage at which bitcoin currently stands). If this model holds true, the next step would be a price "boom" which could lead to bitcoin rising to $400,000 by 2026.

– According to another expert, Stockmoney Lizards, bitcoin has just emerged from its third historical cycle, during which it reached an all-time high of $68,900, and has entered its fourth price cycle. The culmination of this cycle could be a new record between $150,000 and $200,000 in Q2 or Q3 of 2025.

– Cody Buffington, the host of the Altcoin Buzz YouTube channel, holds the view that a surge in bitcoin's volatility will occur sooner than everyone anticipates. According to him, the upcoming volatility of the flagship cryptocurrency could rival its growth since January 2023.
Buffington noted that in July, the price of bitcoin oscillated in a narrow range around the $30,000 mark, which served as a kind of test for both bulls and bears. And more often than not, such flat trading occurs before major movements. As proof, he pointed to the Bollinger Bands and a visual display of the indicator, which shows that the bitcoin price chart is in its narrowest state since the start of 2023.

– Ripple recently released a review examining the impact of the cryptocurrency and blockchain industry on business and the financial sector. According to the document, more than 90% of global financial leaders believe that blockchain technology will significantly influence business and finance over the next three years, indicating a substantial increase in their confidence in virtual currencies. 79% of business leaders expressed interest and confidence in using cryptocurrencies in their business. When considering various areas of cryptocurrency application, 44% of financiers chose their use for cross-border payments. Moreover, over 76% of company leaders are interested in institutional DeFi as a strategy for implementing innovations.

– According to a survey of 29 analysts conducted by Finder.com, their median forecast is as follows. Experts expect that by the end of the year, BTC will rise to $38,488, while the potential peak of bitcoin in 2023 could reach $42,000. By the end of 2025, according to the averaged opinion of analysts, the coin's price could reach $100,000, and by the end of 2030 - $280,000.
Naturally, individual forecasts of experts varied. Overall, the majority of survey participants (59%) are optimistic about BTC and believe that now is a good time to enter the market, 34% simply advise holding the existing cryptocurrency, and 7% suggest selling it.

– At present, there is a certain hype around the artificial intelligence industry. Experts from the publication Finbold decided to ask Google Bard, a machine learning system, how much the flagship of the crypto market will cost after the long-awaited halving in 2024.
The AI noted that several factors could influence this, but bitcoin is very likely to reach a new all-time high. This will be facilitated not only by halving, but also by a more global implementation of BTC, as well as interest from institutional investors. Speaking of specific figures, Google Bard noted that after the halving, the coin could on a sharp impulse reach the $100,000 mark. On the other hand, Google Bard highlighted factors that could limit the growth of bitcoin. The AI also did not rule out the possibility that the crypto winter may continue in 2024.

– Sam Altman, founder and CEO of OpenAI, which created the popular AI chatbot ChatGPT, has launched his own cryptocurrency, Worldcoin, based on a blockchain system that uses eye recognition for user authentication and distinguishes between humans and bots. On July 24, the Binance cryptocurrency exchange listed the Worldcoin (WLD) token and preliminary trading began in the newly added spot pairs WLD/BTC and WLD/USDT.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for July 31 - August 04, 2023

EUR/USD: From Hawks to Not-Yet Doves

The past week was filled with both events and the release of macroeconomic data. Regarding the Federal Reserve meeting on July 26 and the European Central Bank meeting on July 27, there were no surprises in terms of key interest rate hikes. In both cases, they were predictably increased by 25 basis points (bps): to 5.50% for the dollar and to 4.25% for the euro. Therefore, market participants' attention was drawn to the statements made by the heads of these regulators following the meetings.

Jerome Powell, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, announced during the press conference on July 26 that the US central bank's monetary policy has now become restrictive. As is usual, he deflected a direct answer on whether there will be an additional rate hike within this year. He didn't rule out the prospect of a further surge in the cost of federal fund borrowings but neither did he confirm it, even though it has already touched a 22-year peak.

It became apparent from Powell's remarks that the Federal Reserve no longer anticipates a recession. Instead, the central bank's policy will aim for a 'soft landing' – a state of moderate economic expansion coupled with a continued deceleration in inflation. This upbeat forecast for the stock market prompted further growth in the S&P500 and Dow Jones indices, whereas the yields on US Treasury bonds and the Dollar Index (DXY) dropped. Amidst this backdrop, the EUR/USD pair recorded its weekly high at 1.1149.

Everything changed radically the next day, on Thursday, July 27. Almost simultaneously, with a 15-minute interval, the European Central Bank's decision on interest rates and preliminary US GDP data were announced. 15 minutes later, a press conference led by the head of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, began.

The US economy, against a forecast of 1.8%, expanded by 2.4% in Q2, substantiating Powell's statements and removing the topic of recession from the current agenda. Against this backdrop, the Eurozone economy is clearly lagging behind (for instance, German GDP, after a drop of -0.3% in Q1, contracted further by -0.2% in Q2). The ECB's head lamented this weakness in her address. If a month ago it was said that the European regulator would bring rates to levels that would be sufficiently restrictive, on July 27 everything sounded different. It was now stated that the Governing Council of the Central Bank would maintain restrictive borrowing costs for as long as necessary. In other words, they would at least take a pause, or even cease further tightening of their policy.

Gediminas Šimkus, a member of the Bank's Governing Council, confirmed this, stating that the "economy is weaker in the short term than forecasted" and monetary authorities are "near the peak of rates or at it". As a result of these statements, the probability of a rate hike in September dropped below 50%, and EUR/USD plummeted. The pair bottomed for the week at the mark of 1.0943.

Towards the end of the work week, on Friday, July 28, the pair corrected into the 1.1000 zone. Following the publication of preliminary inflation (CPI) data in Germany and personal consumption expenditure data in the US, EUR/USD closed the five-day period at 1.1016.

As for the near-term prospects, at the time of writing this review on the evening of July 28, 30% of analysts voted for further growth of the pair, 55% foresaw a decline, and the remaining 15% held a neutral position. Among trend indicators on D1, 50% point upwards, 50% downwards. The oscillators present a more specific picture: only 15% recommend buying, 65% selling, and the remaining 20% are neutral. The nearest support for the pair is around 1.0985, followed by 1.0945-1.0955, 1.0895-1.0925, 1.0845-1.0865, 1.0780-1.0805, 1.0740, 1.0665-1.0680, and 1.0620-1.0635. Bulls will encounter resistance in the area of 1.1045, then 1.1085-1.1110, 1.1145, 1.1170, 1.1230-1.1245, 1.1275-1.1290, 1.1355, 1.1475, and 1.1715.

In the coming week, on Monday, July 31, we await data on retail sales in Germany and a whole raft of preliminary statistics for the Eurozone, including GDP and inflation (CPI) data. On Tuesday, business activity indicators (PMI) in Germany and the US will be revealed. The following day, August 2, we will receive data on the level of employment in the private sector of the United States. The labour market statistics will be supplemented on August 3 and 4, when we will learn the number of unemployment benefit claims and such important indicators as wage level, unemployment rate, and the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector (NFP) of the country.

GBP/USD: Awaiting the Bank of England's Meeting

The preliminary data released on Monday, July 24, showed a decline in business activity in the UK. According to the Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply (CIPS), the PMI in the manufacturing sector, which was forecasted at 46.1, actually fell from 46.5 to 45.0 points. The PMI in the service sector and the composite PMI, although they remained above 50, also showed a decline: from 53.7 to 51.5 and from 52.8 to 50.7 points, respectively.

The Bank of England (BoE) meeting will take place on Thursday, August 3, and the market has yet to come to a consistent opinion on how much the regulator will raise the base rate for the pound under current conditions. Will it be 50 basis points or, like the Fed and ECB, 25? We've previously mentioned arguments in favor of both numbers. We'll just repeat some of them.

Three main reasons for the BoE to decide on a 50 basis point increase were formulated by economists of the French financial conglomerate Societe Generale.

Firstly, service sector inflation and wages may have peaked in June, but both indicators remain uncomfortably high. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), although it decreased from 8.7% to 7.9% (forecasted at 8.2%) over the month, is still far from the target level of 2.0%.

Secondly, as Societe Generale believes, investors are avoiding British bonds due to the persistent inflation in the country. Such high and steady inflation means that investors require higher compensation for holding British bonds compared to US Treasuries and German bonds. To reassure investors, it is necessary at this stage to continue a tight monetary policy.

Thirdly, in recent weeks the Bank of England and its governor, Andrew Bailey, have been subjected to extensive criticism for maintaining a soft monetary policy for too long, thereby allowing inflation to rise significantly. Now the BoE may overdo it in an effort to prove its critics wrong.

However, not everyone agrees with the arguments of the French economists. For example, their colleagues from the German Commerzbank note that consumer prices (CPI) in the UK grew much slower in June than expected. Therefore, market expectations for a rate hike are too high and need to be adjusted downwards. This, in turn, will lead to a weakening of the pound. A similar view was expressed by strategists from the largest banking group in the Netherlands, ING, who believe that the rate will be increased by a maximum of 25 basis points.

It can be seen on the long-term chart that the British currency has recovered more than three-quarters after a sharp fall in the second half of 2021 and in 2022. And according to economists at Scotiabank, the pound is "likely to continue to receive support from positive yield spreads, even though a very tight monetary policy will threaten the prospects for UK economic growth next year." Scotiabank predicts that the pound will reach 1.3500 by the end of 2023 and 1.4000 by the end of 2024.

As for the current situation, the GBP/USD dynamics last week were similar to how EUR/USD moved - both pairs reacted to the results of the Fed and ECB meetings, to the statements of their leaders, and to macroeconomic statistics from the US. As a result, the week's maximum was recorded on July 27 at the height of 1.2995, the minimum - the next day at the level of 1.2762, and the final chord sounded at the mark of 1.2850.

The median forecast for GBP/USD in the near term tends to be bearish, with 70% supporting this view and the remaining 30% taking the opposite position. On the D1 oscillators, 15% are coloured green, 25% neutral-grey, and 60% red. For trend indicators, as in the case of EUR/USD, the ratio between green and red is 50% to 50%. If the pair moves south, it is expected to meet support levels and zones - 1.2800-1.2815, then 1.2740-1.2760, 1.2675-1.2695, 1.2575-1.2600, 1.2435-1.2450, 1.2300-1.2330. 1.2190-1.2210. In case of pair growth, it will encounter resistance at levels 1.2880, then 1.2940, 1.2980-1.3000, 1.3050-1.3060, 1.3125-1.3140, 1.3185-1.3210, 1.3300-1.3335, 1.3425, 1.3605.

In the calendar for the upcoming week, in addition to the Bank of England meeting and the subsequent press conference of its management, Tuesday, August 1 can be noted when the final data on business activity (PMI) in the manufacturing sector of the UK economy will be published.

USD/JPY: BoJ Delivers a Surprise

The second half of the past week turned out to be not just volatile, but insanely volatile for USD/JPY. Jumps of 100, 200, and even 300 points followed one after another. Not only did the yen react sharply to the meetings of the Fed and the ECB, but also its own Bank of Japan (BoJ) delivered a surprise. The fire was started by the Nikkei newspaper, which published an insider that the BoJ intends, on the one hand, to maintain control over the bond yield curve in the same range, but on the other hand - to allow the rates of the debt market to go beyond its limits.

The results of the regulator's meeting fully confirmed the journalists' information. As expected, the Japanese Central Bank kept the key rate at an ultra-low negative level of -0.1%. However, for the first time in many years, the new head of the bank, Kazuo Ueda, decided to turn strict targeting of the yield curve into flexible one. For some central banks, this is a common practice. But for the BoJ, it's a desperately bold, revolutionary step.

The target yield level of Japanese 10-year bonds remains 0%. The permissible range of yield changes of +/-0.5% is also maintained. But from now on, this limit should no longer be seen as a hard boundary but is more flexible. True, to certain limits - the Bank of Japan drew a "red line" at the level of 1.0% and will conduct daily purchase operations so that the yield does not rise above this mark.

Initially, this decision literally blew up the market, the yen's rate began to strengthen. USD/JPY dropped to the mark of 138.05. But then everything calmed down. Investors reasoned that, essentially, the BoJ policy remained ultra-soft. The review of the target range for long-term government bonds has purely symbolic significance so far, as it is unknown whether such a range will actually be used.

Especially since there were immediate critics of this decision. Thus, strategists from Commerzbank warned in advance that the possibility of a slight increase in rates could be devastating for the yen. They referred to the potential growth of inflation and the high level of public debt in the country. "With such half-hearted measures," they said, "the Bank of Japan is fuelling fears that the actual cessation of control over the yield curve could be undesirable or impractical. [...] Even if the yen currently benefits from the possibility of a slight increase in interest rates in the long run, this will be a catastrophic signal for it.".

"And in general, it is still unclear what and how will happen in this distant future," thought market participants, and as a result, the end of the week ended in favour of the dollar. The final point of the week was set at the level of 141.15.

At the time of writing the review, the forecast is maximally neutral: a third of analysts believe that in the coming days the pair will continue to grow, a third expect its fall, and a third have taken a wait-and-see position. The readings of the indicators on D1 look as follows. Among oscillators, 35% are coloured red, 25% are gray, and 40% are green (a quarter of them are in the overbought zone). Among trend indicators, green has a total advantage, such are 100%. The nearest support level is located in the zone of 140.60-140.75, then 139.85, 138.95-139.05, 138.05-138.30, 137.25-137.50, 135.95, 133.75-134.15, 132.80-133.00, 131.25, 130.60, 129.70, 128.10, and 127.20. The nearest resistance is 141.95-142.20, then 143.00, 143.75-144.00, 145.05-145.30, 146.85-147.15, 148.85, and finally, the maximum of October 2022, 151.95.

Part from the meeting of the Bank of Japan, no significant economic information related to the economy of this country is expected to arrive in the coming week.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: In Search of a Lost Trigger

The decisions of the Federal Reserve (and even more so the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan) have not had a significant impact on bitcoin quotes. After a decline on Monday, July 24, BTC/USD attempted to rise slightly in line with stock indices, but it did not manage to consolidate above $30,000.

Statistics show that after a price surge in June, blue whales (those holding more than 10,000 bitcoins) are locking in profits and selling bitcoin at record rates for 2023, offloading an average of 16,300 coins per day onto exchanges. During this period, the share of whale transactions in the overall inflow to these platforms reached 41%. This even surpasses crisis periods in 2022, such as the Terra project crash and the FTX bankruptcy (when whale proportions were 39% and 33%, respectively).

Conspiracy theorists attribute this sell-off to the whales possessing some kind of insider information. However, it's more likely that the sales are driven by increasing risks due to heightened regulatory pressure on the crypto market from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), including the legal pursuit of its prominent participants.

As for the smaller members of the whale family (those holding between 1,000 and 10,000 bitcoins), they have been actively replenishing their reserves over the past month. Other market participants behaved fairly passively, not exerting a significant impact on quotes.

The only positive development for the crypto market this summer has been the submission of applications to launch spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) by giants such as BlackRock, Invesco, Fidelity, and others. Thanks to these developments, BTC/USD managed to rise above $30,000 in mid-June.

Senior Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas believes that SEC approval of these applications will open up $30 trillion worth of capital to the bitcoin market. According to forecasts by the analytical company Fundstrat, the launch of a bitcoin ETF could increase the daily demand for bitcoin by $100 million. In this case, even before the halving scheduled for April 2024, the price of bitcoin could rise by 521% from its current levels, reaching up to $180,000.

However, clarity about the fate of these applications is still a long way off. For instance, the final decision on BlackRock's application is not expected until the middle of Q3 2023 and no later than mid-March 2024. And this decision does not necessarily have to be positive. As a result of this uncertainty, the joyful excitement among crypto enthusiasts in June has fizzled out, but fear of the SEC remains. This fear continues to put pressure on the market.

Two events could potentially serve as new triggers to initiate a bull rally. The first is a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy towards easing (QE). In other words, it would involve not just an end to the tightening cycle (QT), but the actual start of easing. But so far, this isn't even being discussed. The interest rate will either be frozen at its current level or rise by another 25 b.p. However, based on recent statements, the Federal Reserve does not intend to lower it. In general, we are still far from the point where a significant amount of free money appears on the market, which investors would want to invest in digital assets.

The second trigger is the halving, which could cause not only the subsequent, but also preceding growth in bitcoin. As on traditional markets, shifts in investor sentiment on the crypto market follow certain patterns. Taking into account the so-called "Wall Street Cheat Sheet," which describes the psychology of market cycles, and the emotions traders typically experience, bitcoin is moving towards the "hope" phase after passing through pessimistic phases of "panic," "capitulation," and "depression."

According to the chart by analyst CryptoYoddha, the cryptocurrency is currently going through the "disbelief" or "sucker's rally" stage, with the next step being "hope" for a price recovery, possibly to $50,000 and higher by the end of 2023. The upward movement will correspond to the passage through the stages of "optimism," "belief," "thrill," and finally, "euphoria.".

Cody Buffington, the host of the Altcoin Buzz YouTube channel, holds the view that a surge in bitcoin's volatility will happen even sooner than everyone expects. In his opinion, the impending volatility of the flagship cryptocurrency could rival its growth since January 2023. Buffington noted that in July, the bitcoin price fluctuated in a narrow range around the $30,000 mark, which was a kind of test for both bulls and bears. More often than not, such a flat period occurs before large movements. As evidence, he referred to the Bollinger Bands and a visual display of the indicator, where it can be seen that the bitcoin price chart is in its narrowest state since the beginning of 2023.

A survey of 29 analysts conducted by Finder.com resulted in the following median forecast. Experts expect BTC to rise to $38,488 by the end of the year, with a potential peak for bitcoin in 2023 potentially reaching $42,000. By the end of 2025, according to the average opinion of those surveyed, the price of the coin could reach $100,000, and by the end of 2030 - $280,000.

Naturally, individual forecasts of the experts varied. Overall, the majority of survey participants (59%) are optimistic about BTC and believe that now is a good time to enter the market, 34% simply advise holding existing cryptocurrency, and 7% recommend selling it.

Market strategist Todd "Bubba" Horwitz believes that within the next six months, the flagship cryptocurrency will rise to $35,000, and then to $40,000. Interestingly, "Bubba" has chosen neither the Federal Reserve nor the halving as the trigger, but… Robert F. Kennedy Jr. This Democratic presidential candidate stated that saving the country's economy and supporting the dollar could be facilitated by hard assets such as gold, silver, platinum, and... bitcoin.

Analyst under the pseudonym Trader Tardigrade believes that bitcoin is repeating the same price structure as in the period from 2013 to 2018 when it followed the model of transition from the "previous peak" to the "top-1", which preceded the "top-2" and the "retest" (the stage where bitcoin is now). If this model is correct, the next step will be a price "boom", which could lead to bitcoin's growth to $400,000 in 2026.

Another expert, Stockmoney Lizards, opines that bitcoin has just exited its third historical cycle, during which it reached a historical maximum of $68,900, and has entered its fourth price cycle, the culmination of which could be a new record between $150,000 and $200,000 Q2 or Q3 2025.

Artificial Intelligence also has an opinion on this matter (we couldn't possibly proceed without it!). The experts at Finbold decided to ask the Google Bard machine learning system how much the flagship of the crypto market will cost after the long-awaited halving in 2024. The AI noted that several factors could influence this, but it's highly likely that bitcoin will reach a new all-time high. This will be facilitated not only by halving but also by a more global integration of BTC and interest from institutional investors. Speaking in specific figures, Google Bard noted that after halving, the coin could spike to a $100,000 mark. On the other hand, the AI highlighted factors that could limit the growth of the main cryptocurrency and did not rule out the possibility that the crypto winter could continue in 2024.

As of the time this review was written, on the evening of Friday, July 28, bitcoin doesn't seem to be significantly affected. BTC/USD is being traded around $29,400. The total capitalization of the crypto market has slightly decreased and is at $1.183 trillion ($1.202 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is currently in the Neutral zone, standing at 52 points (compared to 50 points a week ago)
 

NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

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https://nordfx.com/

[Stan NordFX]

July Results: NordFX's Top 3 Traders Surpass $230,000 in Profits

NordFX, the brokerage firm, has summarized the performance of its clients' trading transactions for July 2023. The social trading services, PAMM and CopyTrading, have also been evaluated, as well as the profits gained by the company's IB partners.

- The highest profit in July was achieved by a trader from Western Asia, with account number 1692XXX, whose profit amounted to 192,396 USD. This substantial result was achieved through transactions involving gold (XAU/USD) and the British pound (GBP/USD).
- The second spot in the ranking of the most successful traders of the month was taken by a client from East Asia, account number 1663XXX, who earned 26,699 USD exclusively through transactions with the currency pair XAU/USD.
- Third place on July's honour podium went to a representative from South Asia (account number 1705XXX), whose result, 15,358 USD, was also primarily achieved through operations with gold (XAU/USD).

The situation unfolded as follows in the NordFX passive investment services:

- In CopyTrading, a fairly large number of interesting (at least at first glance) signals periodically appear among startups, combining high profitability with moderate maximum drawdown. Here are just a few of them: G@SDR (profit 126% / max drawdown 27% / lifespan 50 days), Leonard6789 (184%/27%/27), SURE PROFIT (328%/25%/14). However, looking at these impressive results, it should be understood that they have been achieved through quite aggressive trading. Therefore, when subscribing to them, risk factors must certainly be taken into account. One of the main factors in this case is the very short lifespan of these signals.
    
As for the long-livers, we continue to monitor the fate of the signal KennyFXPRO - Prismo 2K. It started working on May 2, 2021. During this time, the 'veteran' experienced two serious drawdowns: on November 14, 2022, and June 20-23, 2023. In both cases, to avoid account liquidation, its author took the difficult step of closing loss-making positions. However, as a result, the signal is still alive and has shown a profit of 231% over 819 days.

- On the PAMM service display, there are two accounts that we have mentioned several times in previous reviews. These are KennyFXPRO-The Multi 3000 EA and TranquilityFX-The Genesis v3. Just like their veteran colleague from CopyTrading, they suffered serious losses on November 14, 2022: the drawdown at that time approached 43%. However, the PAMM managers decided not to give up, and the profit on the first of these accounts exceeded 106% by July 31, 2023, and on the second - 70%.
    
We also continue to monitor the Trade and earn account. It was opened more than a year ago, on March 8, 2022, but was in a dormant state, awakening only in November. As a result, over the past 9 months, its profitability has exceeded 153% with a very small drawdown - less than 13%.

The top three among NordFX's IB partners are as follows:
- A partner from Western Asia, with account number 1645XXX, has claimed the top spot for the third consecutive month. They earned a reward of 13,891 USD in July, bringing their total earnings to nearly 35,000 USD over the three-month period.
- Next is a partner from East Asia, who received 5,565 USD.
- Finally, rounding out the top three is a partner from South Asia, account number 1672XXX, who received a reward of 5,435 USD.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

https://nordfx.com/