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Question: Is the OP correct?
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Author Topic: "Failure to Understand Bitcoin Could Cost Investors Billions" (Bitcoin's flaws)  (Read 42490 times)
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February 11, 2014, 10:27:46 PM
 #21



Altcoin and dogecoin alike will be created on weekly basis and will be modified further and further to correct possible anomalies. This is a gradual process which also involves human behavior.

We are not talking about the human behavior of one company and all stock owners/traders trading this company's stock. We are talking about world-wide computer user communities behavior that no genius can model and predict with math, physics, reasoning, explicit explanation, and such.

In worst case scenario, we can go back to 2010 when 10,000 BTC is worth $25 for a pizza.

That was less than 4 years ago.
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February 12, 2014, 07:34:01 AM
 #22

Looks like some of the ideas discussed upthread are making it into the mainstream media.

This guy in Forbes is essentially arguing that cryptocurrency is going to bifurcate into an anonymous coin and a bank coin.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/billfrezza/2014/02/07/why-bitcoin-must-die-long-live-bitcoin-2-0/

Makes me wonder if he is reading this forum.

 Cool

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February 12, 2014, 07:51:51 AM
 #23

Those who were anonymous lose it ex post facto, when tax & law enforcement attack a.k.a. "coin taint" the numerous non-anonymous

I'll go on a limb there, and say something this community may not be ready to swallow, but the biggest flaw of bitcoin and cryptos so far is to want or aim for anonymity.

We've got enough shady dealings going on with banks, politicians and fiat cash transactions. Let's not fool ourselves: those that benefit from anonymity most are banksters, politicians, crooks and traffickers.

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February 12, 2014, 09:01:20 AM
 #24

Proof systems which attempt to do useful computational work can not be secure.

I didn't think about that until now.  Of course.  Like with PrimeCoin you could determine the next prime number after the next prime number and use that to snoop the blockchain and doublespend a million dollars or something ridiculous.  I see it now.  It is necessary to have random meaningless hashing after all.  Which is really disappointing. 
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February 12, 2014, 09:04:06 AM
 #25

I received a private message from someone who claims to be inside the curtain with central banks, and he says that some inside already know the entire thing is going to come crashing down and they are now focused on what to do after the collapse.


Those who were anonymous lose it ex post facto, when tax & law enforcement attack a.k.a. "coin taint" the numerous non-anonymous

I'll go on a limb there, and say something this community may not be ready to swallow, but the biggest flaw of bitcoin and cryptos so far is to want or aim for anonymity.

We've got enough shady dealings going on with banks, politicians and fiat cash transactions. Let's not fool ourselves: those that benefit from anonymity most are banksters, politicians, crooks and traffickers.

The crooks always own the government due to the power vacuum of democracy, which is explained in detail in my Mad Max thread (find a link to it upthread). So lack of anonymity is not stopping them. Whereas lack of anonymity allows the government to track down all the wealth and tax+confiscate it all to pay the $150 trillion global debt. Of course the global debt will grow larger as they tax+confiscate, because the entire pie of the productive economy will collapse. So this will be a death spiral into a Mad Max Dark Age.

The only way we avoid that horrific outcome is for private and productive capital to find a place to hide from the government. Gold won't work because you can't transact over distance nor internet anonymously. Check points stop that physical movement. Hoarding of gold coincides with an implosion of transactions and thus the velocity of money (which is already down -50% since 2008).

Anonymity of decentralized internet currency is the only solution I see. Or the people suddenly stop demanding socialism and rise up against the government, but that isn't going to happen because too many people suck the tit of socialism now and need it.

One positive thing about anonymity in terms of the crooks, is if it helps them to steal faster from the government, then sooner we can collapse the socialism (i.e. government) which is hunting down all private wealth.

We have to destroy the current system. The only possible option is whether we don't also destroy all private capital in the process of creative destruction of the current egregiously out-of-control socialism and government.

See also what I wrote in the past about this.


Proof systems which attempt to do useful computational work can not be secure.

I didn't think about that until now.  Of course.  Like with PrimeCoin you could determine the next prime number after the next prime number and use that to snoop the blockchain and doublespend a million dollars or something ridiculous.  I see it now.  It is necessary to have random meaningless hashing after all.  Which is really disappointing.  

True for things that must be known a priori as you say, e.g. solving supercomputing problems such a matrices. However, there is one slight mistake in your epiphany, at least how I interpreted your statement. PrimeCoin is secure until someone figures out a math to relate the way they are forming their prime chains, i.e. how the next prime relates to the prior block's prime. I do believe it can be insecure too because there may be a yet undiscovered mathematical order in primes which applies to the way they chain primes, but it is not a given at the moment until someone finds that ordered relationship and implements an attack. Whereas for Satoshi's proof-of-work, the hash of the next block can't be known until the hash of the current block is calculated, so it can never be known a priori unless you have more hashing power than the network (i.e. 50+% attack). And the next hash relates to the prior one in a cryptographically secure (random) way due to the confusion and diffusion in the design of the hash function. There is no expectation of mathematical order since the design of the cryptographic hash requires breaking linearity over all possible number spaces.

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February 12, 2014, 09:11:07 AM
 #26

Do you not believe a bitcoin black market could be formed? Especially when the state becomes more pervasive perhaps imposing price controls when inflation gets out of control, people may turn to bitcoin because at the moment it's far better than any other cryptocurrency out there at the moment and when the economic situation gets worse dollars or SDRs or whatever we're using in the future just will be hated by the people because inequality will be so great and the poor will be really poor.
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February 12, 2014, 09:34:45 AM
 #27

Do you not believe a bitcoin black market could be formed? Especially when the state becomes more pervasive perhaps imposing price controls when inflation gets out of control, people may turn to bitcoin because at the moment it's far better than any other cryptocurrency out there at the moment and when the economic situation gets worse dollars or SDRs or whatever we're using in the future just will be hated by the people because inequality will be so great and the poor will be really poor.

Black market won't function so well because anonymity is broken for all due to footnote [2] in the OP.  Due to the coin tainting by authorities explained in [2], then it will be very difficult to find someone to transact with you. Most will refuse. If you want the coin to function well, you have to prevent coin taint from fracturing the money system.

Coin taint is perhaps the most serious problem in Bitcoin. A core Bitcoin developer is trying to fix it with CoinJoin, but I explain in [2] why that won't work.

Also we are headed into massive deflation, not inflation. Please see the long list of armstrongeconomics.com links I provided which explain this upthread. As Armstrong has explained how it always happens throughout history, "you will pray they would just hyperinflate away the debts and destroy their governing power. That only happens for fringe a.k.a. peripheral nations or revolutionary governments. Instead what is coming is much more sinister, as the core nations will band together and hunt down all wealth SO THEY RETAIN THEIR POWER".

The way socialism collapses over and over again throughout human history is the people support the government to go tax+confiscate the rich. Eventually this is targeting the middle class, e.g. look at what Obama is doing and IMF is proposing a 10% confiscation of all bank accounts. By the time the system is eating itself, the people don't have any money. Thus they demand the government to do more to tax+confiscate. This is a downward spiral into the Mad Max abyss. It has happened many times in human history, e.g. the Wiemar Germany then Hitler. But that is not the only example, there are 100s.

So yes we need that anonymous cryptocurrency and thus black market. My hope is it becomes as mainstream as possible. Else everyone sinks with the Titantic.

When the IMF confiscation comes, there will be a mad rush into Bitcoin and also (by the more astute) into a more strongly anonymous coin that doesn't have coin taint. When the authorities start tracking down Bitcoins and pushing the coin taint to reality, then a mad rush (of the less astute) out of Bitcoin into the more strongly anonymous coin.


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February 12, 2014, 09:55:04 AM
 #28


So yes we need that anonymous cryptocurrency and thus black market. My hope is it becomes as mainstream as possible. Else everyone sinks with the Titantic.


Zerocoin is soon to be released. Way better anonoymity than Bitcoin

I think Monero (XMR) is very interesting.
https://moneroeconomy.com/faq/why-monero-matters
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February 12, 2014, 10:21:43 AM
 #29

Do you not believe a bitcoin black market could be formed? Especially when the state becomes more pervasive perhaps imposing price controls when inflation gets out of control, people may turn to bitcoin because at the moment it's far better than any other cryptocurrency out there at the moment and when the economic situation gets worse dollars or SDRs or whatever we're using in the future just will be hated by the people because inequality will be so great and the poor will be really poor.

Black market won't function so well because anonymity is broken for all due to footnote [2] in the OP.  Due to the coin tainting by authorities explained in [2], then it will be very difficult to find someone to transact with you. Most will refuse. If you want the coin to function well, you have to prevent coin taint from fracturing the money system.

Coin taint is perhaps the most serious problem in Bitcoin. A core Bitcoin developer is trying to fix it with CoinJoin, but I explain in [2] why that won't work.

Also we are headed in massive deflation, not inflation. Please see the long list of armstrongeconomics.com links I provided which explain this upthread.

The way socialism collapses over and over again throughout human history is the people support the government to go tax+confiscate the rich. Eventually the rich becomes the middle class, e.g. look at what Obama is doing and IMF is proposing a 10% confiscation of all bank accounts. By the time the system is eating itself, the people don't have any money. Thus they demand the government to do more to tax+confiscate. This is a downward spiral into the Mad Max abyss. It has happened many times in human history, e.g. the Wiemar Germany then Hitler. But that is not the only example, there are 100s.

So yes we need that anonymous cryptocurrency and thus black market. My hope is it becomes as mainstream as possible. Else everyone sinks with the Titantic.

When the IMF confiscation comes, there will be a mad rush into Bitcoin and also (by the more astute) into a more strongly anonymous coin that doesn't have coin taint. When the authorities start tracking down Bitcoins and pushing the coin taint to reality, then a mad rush (of the less astute) out of Bitcoin into the more strongly anonymous coin.



Do you really believe the US government will choose deflation over inflation? Most academic economists want inflation at the moment and are not even worried about hyperinflation due to the low velocity of money, that's what the QE has been about hasn't it? They're trying to reach an escape velocity and increase consumer confidence before dialling back the QE and raising rates. Armstrong says it's impossible to maintain our reserve status and inflate our way out of this problem which is true but why then have they not started the deflationary measures already?
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February 12, 2014, 10:27:08 AM
 #30

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=455450.msg5097190#msg5097190

6. The coin has inbuilt algorithm changing so if someone was to build an ASIC the devs would simply change the algorithm and they would be rendered useless. Posted by the Maxcoin devs http://www.reddit.com/r/maxcoinproject/comments/1xh1xl/the_maxcoin_advantage/cfba4hy

Which means either he is fooling (possibly himself and) you, or the coin MUST BE controlled top-down and is thus centralized. Thus handed on silver platter for take over by the authorities in the future.

Either you have decentralized protocol or you have top-down control.

If the protocol is decentralized it means no one can decide to change it any more, unless they can convince a majority of the mining hash processing power to switch. Since ASICs have orders-of-magnitude hash processing power advantage, then they won't agree of course. Even if ASICs are just launched, existing GPU or CPU miners will be resistant to changes. So you must then maintain top-down control over pools or somehow force all miners to switch.

I explained this to bytemaster months ago when he proposed a similar strategy for BitShares.

This is also why you won't see any drastic changes to Bitcoin any more.

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February 12, 2014, 10:37:58 AM
 #31

So yes we need that anonymous cryptocurrency and thus black market. My hope is it becomes as mainstream as possible. Else everyone sinks with the Titantic.

Zerocoin is soon to be released. Way better anonoymity than Bitcoin

I already explained upthread why it can't be Zerocoin. See the following upthread quote of myself:

Now I'd really like to get a discussion going on this alt crypto coin saver. Could it be zerocoin?

No.

  • Validation is too slow, thus can't work technically.
  • Might be back-doored (although this might be fixable)
  • Unproven, very complex new crypto. Needs many years to become trusted and stable.
  • Storage size needed for full clients is impractical if it is mandatory for all users
  • Mixers, laundries, and exchanging between coins which are not mandatory fail for the ex post facto reason I provided in the 3rd item in the Threats section and footnote [2] of the OP
  • Subject to timing attacks, i.e. timing when inputs go in and outputs come out
  • Doesn't obscure the IP address of the participants, and Tor + VPN are inadequate, this will be explained further at the appropriate time

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February 12, 2014, 10:43:50 AM
 #32


  • Unproven, very complex new crypto. Needs many years to become trusted and stable.


Isn't this point going to be a problem with any new crypto? Better get this new coin out soon so there is sufficient time to test and debug it.

Anonymint what is your feeling at the moment. Is there any coin in the pipe that you feel could have the properties you want?

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February 12, 2014, 10:51:47 AM
 #33

Do you not believe a bitcoin black market could be formed? Especially when the state becomes more pervasive perhaps imposing price controls when inflation gets out of control, people may turn to bitcoin because at the moment it's far better than any other cryptocurrency out there at the moment and when the economic situation gets worse dollars or SDRs or whatever we're using in the future just will be hated by the people because inequality will be so great and the poor will be really poor.

Black market won't function so well because anonymity is broken for all due to footnote [2] in the OP.  Due to the coin tainting by authorities explained in [2], then it will be very difficult to find someone to transact with you. Most will refuse. If you want the coin to function well, you have to prevent coin taint from fracturing the money system.

Coin taint is perhaps the most serious problem in Bitcoin. A core Bitcoin developer is trying to fix it with CoinJoin, but I explain in [2] why that won't work.

Also we are headed in massive deflation, not inflation. Please see the long list of armstrongeconomics.com links I provided which explain this upthread.

The way socialism collapses over and over again throughout human history is the people support the government to go tax+confiscate the rich. Eventually the rich becomes the middle class, e.g. look at what Obama is doing and IMF is proposing a 10% confiscation of all bank accounts. By the time the system is eating itself, the people don't have any money. Thus they demand the government to do more to tax+confiscate. This is a downward spiral into the Mad Max abyss. It has happened many times in human history, e.g. the Wiemar Germany then Hitler. But that is not the only example, there are 100s.

So yes we need that anonymous cryptocurrency and thus black market. My hope is it becomes as mainstream as possible. Else everyone sinks with the Titantic.

When the IMF confiscation comes, there will be a mad rush into Bitcoin and also (by the more astute) into a more strongly anonymous coin that doesn't have coin taint. When the authorities start tracking down Bitcoins and pushing the coin taint to reality, then a mad rush (of the less astute) out of Bitcoin into the more strongly anonymous coin.



Do you really believe the US government will choose deflation over inflation? Most academic economists want inflation at the moment and are not even worried about hyperinflation due to the low velocity of money, that's what the QE has been about hasn't it? They're trying to reach an escape velocity and increase consumer confidence before dialling back the QE and raising rates. Armstrong says it's impossible to maintain our reserve status and inflate our way out of this problem which is true but why then have they not started the deflationary measures already?

Don't forget the Quantity Theory of Money, M x V = P x Q. Thus if M increases but V (velocity of money) implodes (and it is already down -50% since 2008 in the USA), then you still have deflation, unless Q falls more than M x V does.

They are already starting the deflation. Don't you see Obama destroying the productive economy with Obamacare. Don't you see the NSA storing everything so they know where all the wealth is, as they prepare to share info with the tax authorities in every G20 nation (see my upthread link to that news story). Don't you see the plan to raise taxes. Don't you see the IMF calling for "financial repression" and confiscation of 10% of all bank accounts. Don't you see the Fed taper. Don't you see the 60% youth unemployment in southern Europe and preparing to spread to France and others, while ECB has no legal right to print:

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/02/11/ecb-structural-faults-switzerland-bail-out-of-banks/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/02/08/europe-is-a-basket-case-just-turnout-the-lights-now-save-energy/

All the $trillions in QE ended up as dollar bond issues in the developing world a.k.a. peripheral economies. That is why you see the developing world booming in construction (e.g. the third-world Philippines has 14 of the 36 largest malls in the world [1]). This wasn't hyperinflation, it was inflating the developing world while deflating the western developed world. Note the Fed is tapering, so the developing world has peaked and is headed down.

There is a massive deflationary wave underway. It has started at the periphery and by 2015.75 it will reach the USA when the very strong dollar (from capital fleeing the developing world back into the dollar again) will choke off the USA economy. Coincidentally the US govt is funded to Sept 2015 precisely to the day that Armstrong's computer model predicts the USA to peak and turn down into this massive deflationary wave that will run into the 2020s with final bottom of the global crisis in 2032.

Here follows is the relevant upthread quote of myself:

Look up the causes of hyperinflation. There doesn't even need to be an increase in the money supply -- hyperinflation is fundamentally a runaway collapse in the amount of trust the average person has in the underlying system.

We are headed into massive deflation, and perhaps you fundamentally don't understand that hyperinflation only occurs in peripheral economics, not in the core of the global economy.

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/01/28/here-we-go-again-hypreinflation/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/01/14/hyperinflation-is-it-even-possible/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/11/20/hyperinflation-all-just-hype/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/01/14/hyperinflation-impossibility-in-private-sector/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/08/11/defining-hyperinflation-the-coming-new-currency/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2012/07/04/hyperinflation/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/02/24/the-untold-truth-about-the-german-hyperinflation/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/24/12703/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/12/29/law-of-unintended-consequences/

http://armstrongeconomics.com/the-taxman-cometh/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/10/30/world-trade-turning-negative-same-as-protectionism/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/11/14/the-coming-deflation/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/11/09/deflation-the-great-equalizer-now-greece-was-there-a-different-tested-response-in-history-yes/

My point in the Errata section of the OP about centralized control over debasement isn't that hyperinflation results. I never wrote the word hyperinflation. Rather my point is those who have captured the government gain the fruits of that debasement, or it is wasted by the poor fitness of top-down allocation of resources.


[1]
My comments on the following pages cover the technological unemployment crisis ahead and I even summarize the 78 year cycle with a chart of the past events:

https://web.archive.org/web/20130629103550/http://www.mpettis.com/2013/02/21/a-brief-history-of-the-chinese-growth-model/#comment-21562
https://web.archive.org/web/20130206035650/http://www.mpettis.com/2012/10/27/when-the-growth-model-changes-abandon-the-correlations/#comment-18853
https://web.archive.org/web/20130624091541/http://www.mpettis.com/2012/12/28/the-imf-on-overinvestment/#comment-20711
https://web.archive.org/web/20130411201742/http://www.mpettis.com/2012/12/04/three-cheers-for-the-new-data/#comment-20394
https://web.archive.org/web/20130531035050/http://www.mpettis.com/2012/11/17/is-there-an-asian-rmb-bloc/#comment-19226
https://web.archive.org/web/20130531035050/http://www.mpettis.com/2012/11/17/is-there-an-asian-rmb-bloc/#comment-19319
https://web.archive.org/web/20130206035650/http://www.mpettis.com/2012/10/27/when-the-growth-model-changes-abandon-the-correlations/#comment-18648
https://web.archive.org/web/20130206035650/http://www.mpettis.com/2012/10/27/when-the-growth-model-changes-abandon-the-correlations/#comment-18795

Outsourcing is peaking:

https://web.archive.org/web/20130206035650/http://www.mpettis.com/2012/10/27/when-the-growth-model-changes-abandon-the-correlations/#comment-18898
http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/2550615 (decline to 2% for 2013 reached as predicted)

Chinese corporate debt is the highest in the world as a percentage of GDP:

https://web.archive.org/web/20130206035650/http://www.mpettis.com/2012/10/27/when-the-growth-model-changes-abandon-the-correlations/#comment-18916

China's ruling class is checkmated:

https://web.archive.org/web/20130603115932/http://www.mpettis.com/2012/09/23/can-china-increase-export-competitiveness/#comment-16624
https://web.archive.org/web/20130603115932/http://www.mpettis.com/2012/09/23/can-china-increase-export-competitiveness/#comment-16509
https://web.archive.org/web/20130603115932/http://www.mpettis.com/2012/09/23/can-china-increase-export-competitiveness/#comment-16585
https://web.archive.org/web/20130603115932/http://www.mpettis.com/2012/09/23/can-china-increase-export-competitiveness/#comment-17032
https://web.archive.org/web/20130603115932/http://www.mpettis.com/2012/09/23/can-china-increase-export-competitiveness/#comment-16951

The death of the industrial age, stored capital, and collectivism:

https://web.archive.org/web/20130603115932/http://www.mpettis.com/2012/09/23/can-china-increase-export-competitiveness/#comment-16735

My analysis of the Philippines predated the Forbes article:

https://web.archive.org/web/20130624091508/http://www.mpettis.com/2013/02/14/what-ill-be-watching-in-2013/#comment-21493
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecolombo/2013/11/21/heres-why-the-philippines-economic-miracle-is-really-a-bubble-in-disguise/

Brazil:

https://web.archive.org/web/20130217223504/http://www.mpettis.com/2012/10/07/how-to-be-a-china-bull/#comment-17177

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February 12, 2014, 11:07:18 AM
 #34

Do you not believe a bitcoin black market could be formed? Especially when the state becomes more pervasive perhaps imposing price controls when inflation gets out of control, people may turn to bitcoin because at the moment it's far better than any other cryptocurrency out there at the moment and when the economic situation gets worse dollars or SDRs or whatever we're using in the future just will be hated by the people because inequality will be so great and the poor will be really poor.

Black market won't function so well because anonymity is broken for all due to footnote [2] in the OP.  Due to the coin tainting by authorities explained in [2], then it will be very difficult to find someone to transact with you. Most will refuse. If you want the coin to function well, you have to prevent coin taint from fracturing the money system.

Coin taint is perhaps the most serious problem in Bitcoin. A core Bitcoin developer is trying to fix it with CoinJoin, but I explain in [2] why that won't work.

Also we are headed in massive deflation, not inflation. Please see the long list of armstrongeconomics.com links I provided which explain this upthread.

The way socialism collapses over and over again throughout human history is the people support the government to go tax+confiscate the rich. Eventually the rich becomes the middle class, e.g. look at what Obama is doing and IMF is proposing a 10% confiscation of all bank accounts. By the time the system is eating itself, the people don't have any money. Thus they demand the government to do more to tax+confiscate. This is a downward spiral into the Mad Max abyss. It has happened many times in human history, e.g. the Wiemar Germany then Hitler. But that is not the only example, there are 100s.

So yes we need that anonymous cryptocurrency and thus black market. My hope is it becomes as mainstream as possible. Else everyone sinks with the Titantic.

When the IMF confiscation comes, there will be a mad rush into Bitcoin and also (by the more astute) into a more strongly anonymous coin that doesn't have coin taint. When the authorities start tracking down Bitcoins and pushing the coin taint to reality, then a mad rush (of the less astute) out of Bitcoin into the more strongly anonymous coin.



Do you really believe the US government will choose deflation over inflation? Most academic economists want inflation at the moment and are not even worried about hyperinflation due to the low velocity of money, that's what the QE has been about hasn't it? They're trying to reach an escape velocity and increase consumer confidence before dialling back the QE and raising rates. Armstrong says it's impossible to maintain our reserve status and inflate our way out of this problem which is true but why then have they not started the deflationary measures already?

They are already starting the deflation. Don't you see Obama destroying the productive economy with Obamacare. Don't you see the NSA storing everything so they know where all the wealth is, as they prepare to share info with the tax authorities in every G20 nation (see my upthread link to that news story). Don't you see the plan to raise taxes. Don't you see the IMF calling for "financial repression" and confiscation of 10% of all bank accounts. Don't you see the Fed taper.

All the $trillions in QE ended up as dollar bond issues in the developing world a.k.a. peripheral economies. That is why you see the developing world booming in construction (e.g. the third-world Philippines has 14 of the 36 largest malls in the world [1]). This wasn't hyperinflation, it was inflating the developing world while deflating the western developed world. Not the Fed is tapering, so the developing world has peaked and is headed down.

There is a massive deflationary wave underway. It has started at the periphery and by 2015.75 it will reach the USA when the very strong dollar (from capital fleeing the developing world back into the dollar again) will choke off the USA economy. Coincidentally the US govt is funded to Sept 2015 precisely to the day that Armstrong's computer model predicts the USA to peak and turn down into this massive deflationary wave that will run into the 2020s with final bottom of the global crisis in 2032.

Here follows is the relevant upthread quote of myself:

Look up the causes of hyperinflation. There doesn't even need to be an increase in the money supply -- hyperinflation is fundamentally a runaway collapse in the amount of trust the average person has in the underlying system.

We are headed into massive deflation, and perhaps you fundamentally don't understand that hyperinflation only occurs in peripheral economics, not in the core of the global economy.

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/01/28/here-we-go-again-hypreinflation/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/01/14/hyperinflation-is-it-even-possible/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/11/20/hyperinflation-all-just-hype/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/01/14/hyperinflation-impossibility-in-private-sector/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/08/11/defining-hyperinflation-the-coming-new-currency/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2012/07/04/hyperinflation/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/02/24/the-untold-truth-about-the-german-hyperinflation/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/24/12703/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/12/29/law-of-unintended-consequences/

http://armstrongeconomics.com/the-taxman-cometh/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/10/30/world-trade-turning-negative-same-as-protectionism/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/11/14/the-coming-deflation/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/11/09/deflation-the-great-equalizer-now-greece-was-there-a-different-tested-response-in-history-yes/

My point in the Errata section of the OP about centralized control over debasement isn't that hyperinflation results. I never wrote the word hyperinflation. Rather my point is those who have captured the government gain the fruits of that debasement, or it is wasted by the poor fitness of top-down allocation of resources.


[1]
My comments on the following pages cover the technological unemployment crisis ahead and I even summarize the 78 year cycle with a chart of the past events:

https://web.archive.org/web/20130629103550/http://www.mpettis.com/2013/02/21/a-brief-history-of-the-chinese-growth-model/#comment-21562
https://web.archive.org/web/20130206035650/http://www.mpettis.com/2012/10/27/when-the-growth-model-changes-abandon-the-correlations/#comment-18853
https://web.archive.org/web/20130624091541/http://www.mpettis.com/2012/12/28/the-imf-on-overinvestment/#comment-20711
https://web.archive.org/web/20130411201742/http://www.mpettis.com/2012/12/04/three-cheers-for-the-new-data/#comment-20394
https://web.archive.org/web/20130531035050/http://www.mpettis.com/2012/11/17/is-there-an-asian-rmb-bloc/#comment-19226
https://web.archive.org/web/20130531035050/http://www.mpettis.com/2012/11/17/is-there-an-asian-rmb-bloc/#comment-19319
https://web.archive.org/web/20130206035650/http://www.mpettis.com/2012/10/27/when-the-growth-model-changes-abandon-the-correlations/#comment-18648
https://web.archive.org/web/20130206035650/http://www.mpettis.com/2012/10/27/when-the-growth-model-changes-abandon-the-correlations/#comment-18795

Outsourcing is peaking:

https://web.archive.org/web/20130206035650/http://www.mpettis.com/2012/10/27/when-the-growth-model-changes-abandon-the-correlations/#comment-18898
http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/2550615 (decline to 2% for 2013 reached as predicted)

Chinese corporate debt is the highest in the world as a percentage of GDP:

https://web.archive.org/web/20130206035650/http://www.mpettis.com/2012/10/27/when-the-growth-model-changes-abandon-the-correlations/#comment-18916

China's ruling class is checkmated:

https://web.archive.org/web/20130603115932/http://www.mpettis.com/2012/09/23/can-china-increase-export-competitiveness/#comment-16624
https://web.archive.org/web/20130603115932/http://www.mpettis.com/2012/09/23/can-china-increase-export-competitiveness/#comment-16509
https://web.archive.org/web/20130603115932/http://www.mpettis.com/2012/09/23/can-china-increase-export-competitiveness/#comment-16585
https://web.archive.org/web/20130603115932/http://www.mpettis.com/2012/09/23/can-china-increase-export-competitiveness/#comment-17032
https://web.archive.org/web/20130603115932/http://www.mpettis.com/2012/09/23/can-china-increase-export-competitiveness/#comment-16951

The death of the industrial age, stored capital, and collectivism:

https://web.archive.org/web/20130603115932/http://www.mpettis.com/2012/09/23/can-china-increase-export-competitiveness/#comment-16735

My analysis of the Philippines predated the Forbes article:

https://web.archive.org/web/20130624091508/http://www.mpettis.com/2013/02/14/what-ill-be-watching-in-2013/#comment-21493
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecolombo/2013/11/21/heres-why-the-philippines-economic-miracle-is-really-a-bubble-in-disguise/

Brazil:

https://web.archive.org/web/20130217223504/http://www.mpettis.com/2012/10/07/how-to-be-a-china-bull/#comment-17177

The Fed is tapering because they want to keep confidence in the dollar, the markets were expecting a taper because the markets believe the economy is recovering so if the Fed didn't taper the markets would have responded badly, the taper was insignificant as well, they're still pumping money into the economy. The Fed have always maintained their decisions are based on the data and the data will show stunted growth and employment will be terrible, I expect the taper programme will be extended

Also it is suspected that China have been buying massive amounts of gold due to not reporting their gold stock since 2009, they do not want the US dollar as the reserve currency anymore, Russia has publicly stated that the US dollar will be a thing of the past. China does have a high corporate debt but they have real wealth as well, they have a strong manufacturing base and their citizens have a high savings rate, if they allow the Yuan to appreciate against the dollar the wealth of their citizens will increase dramatically and they will be able to import more, if they stop exporting their goods to the US for their worthless dollars they can start consuming what they produce and increase their wealth further.

Yes Obama has been destroying the economy with Obamacare but that doesn't mean we won't have inflation, in fact a contracting supply of real wealth will only make whatever remains more expensive. High tax rates and bail-ins does not mean we will have deflation, they will only destroy what is left of the productive economy, who will want to hold the dollar then if they cannot buy anything with it?

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February 12, 2014, 11:17:05 AM
 #35

Also it is suspected that China have been buying massive amounts of gold due to not reporting their gold stock since 2009, they do not want the US dollar as the reserve currency anymore, Russia has publicly stated that the US dollar will be a thing of the past. China does have a high corporate debt but they have real wealth as well, they have a strong manufacturing base and their citizens have a high savings rate, if they allow the Yuan to appreciate against the dollar the wealth of their citizens will increase dramatically and they will be able to import more, if they stop exporting their goods to the US for their worthless dollars they can start consuming what they produce and increase their wealth further.

Yes Obama has been destroying the economy with Obamacare but that doesn't mean we won't have inflation, in fact a contracting supply of real wealth will only make whatever remains more expensive. High tax rates and bail-ins does not mean we will have deflation, they will only destroy what is left of the productive economy, who will want to hold the dollar then if they cannot buy anything with it?

You don't understand relative size. The USA is still the driver of the global economy. The Yuan does not have enough size and liquidity to replace the dollar during the cycle. China will first significantly correct because their corporate debts are the highest in the world now, their economy is incredibly unbalanced and dependent on exports and fixed capital investment (no worse example in human history). Later in the 2020s or by 2032 after it has rebalanced towards domestic consumption with a decade long severe correction, then China will start growing again and find that it is becoming the financial center of the world.

But first, we go to a strong dollar and massive global deflation. The USA and the NSA will thus be in the driver's seat of the default of $150 trillion in debt. They will not give up this power (thus they will not hyperinflate away their power). They plan to charge to all of us. This is massive deflation.

No major nation in the world has ever hyperinflated away their power. They always self-destruct by attacking their own citizens. Study Rome. Study Germany, etc....

You don't sniff this yet, but Armstrong and I do. Later when you do finally capitulate and realize, that is when the others have also figured it out and it will be mad rush into the dollar and away from all other economies. Then we move into the peak for the USA Sept. 2015, then the USA goes over the cliff and total chaos will ensue. It will be much worse than 2008 and the central banks will be powerless this time. In fact, the Fed has been warning the banks they will not be bailed out again. This is why all the G7 have official bail-in plans (seen on their government websites) to take the money from the depositors instead.

You also don't understand that $150 trillion global debt means every one has been doing the wrong activities and everything is uneconomic.

You don't understand that debt is not just a ledger item, it also reflects real waste of human years, wrong skills acquired, wrong decisions made, etc.. These real problems are not corrected just by changing a line on the financial ledger.

This frustration is why riots and global unrest (and the war cycle) is increasing all over the world right now. There is no way to avoid the global deflation contagion.

Total hell is about to hits us in 2 years or less.

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February 12, 2014, 11:39:20 AM
 #36


  • Unproven, very complex new crypto. Needs many years to become trusted and stable.


Isn't this point going to be a problem with any new crypto? Better get this new coin out soon so there is sufficient time to test and debug it.

Anonymint what is your feeling at the moment. Is there any coin in the pipe that you feel could have the properties you want?

I'd rather not comment on my backdoor communications with moolaching's group.

I already stated that someone who claims to be connected with central banks has contacted me and I have referred him to moolaching's group.

I don't want to be the primary leader on the development of such an altcoin for the reason I stated to you upthread. I can provide some assistance but I will not allow it to be totally dependent on me.

If anyone raises this question again, I won't answer. I suggest you keep an eye on moolaching's posts too.

I am hopeful that Ethereum's talented group could join forces with moolaching at the appropriate time. I'd prefer not to comment further on that as well. Stay tuned...

ADD: you assume that the altcoin proposed in the OP would use radically new crypto, but that may not necessarily be true.

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February 12, 2014, 11:42:07 AM
 #37

Also it is suspected that China have been buying massive amounts of gold due to not reporting their gold stock since 2009, they do not want the US dollar as the reserve currency anymore, Russia has publicly stated that the US dollar will be a thing of the past. China does have a high corporate debt but they have real wealth as well, they have a strong manufacturing base and their citizens have a high savings rate, if they allow the Yuan to appreciate against the dollar the wealth of their citizens will increase dramatically and they will be able to import more, if they stop exporting their goods to the US for their worthless dollars they can start consuming what they produce and increase their wealth further.

Yes Obama has been destroying the economy with Obamacare but that doesn't mean we won't have inflation, in fact a contracting supply of real wealth will only make whatever remains more expensive. High tax rates and bail-ins does not mean we will have deflation, they will only destroy what is left of the productive economy, who will want to hold the dollar then if they cannot buy anything with it?

You don't understand relative size. The USA is still the driver of the global economy. The Yuan does not have enough size and liquidity to replace the dollar during the cycle. China will first significantly correct because their corporate debts are the highest in the world now, their economy is incredibly unbalanced and dependent on exports and fixed capital investment (no worse example in human history). Later in the 2020s or by 2032 after it has rebalanced towards domestic consumption with a decade long severe correction, then China will start growing again and find that it is becoming the financial center of the world.

But first, we go to a strong dollar and massive global deflation. The USA and the NSA will thus be in the driver's seat of the default of $150 trillion in debt. They will not give up this power. They plan to charge to all of us. This is massive deflation.

You also don't understand that $150 trillion global debt means every one has been doing the wrong activities and everything is uneconomic.

You don't understand that debt is not just a ledger item, it also reflects real waste of human years, wrong skills acquired, wrong decisions made, etc.. These real problems are not corrected just by changing a line on the financial ledger.

This frustration is why riots and global unrest (and the war cycle) is increasing all over the world right now. There is no way to avoid the global deflation contagion.

Can you explain to me though the mechanism by which deflation occurs? Perhaps a hypothetical walkthrough.
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February 12, 2014, 11:49:29 AM
 #38

The USA and the NSA will thus be in the driver's seat of the default of $150 trillion in debt. They will not give up this power (thus they will not hyperinflate away their power). They plan to charge to all of us. This is massive deflation.

No major nation in the world has ever hyperinflated away their power. They always self-destruct by attacking their own citizens. Study Rome. Study Germany, etc....

You don't sniff this yet, but Armstrong and I do. Later when you do finally capitulate and realize, that is when the others have also figured it out and it will be mad rush into the dollar and away from all other economies. Then we move into the peak for the USA Sept. 2015, then the USA goes over the cliff and total chaos will ensue. It will be much worse than 2008 and the central banks will be powerless this time. In fact, the Fed has been warning the banks they will not be bailed out again. This is why all the G7 have official bail-in plans (seen on their government websites) to take the money from the depositors instead.

You also don't understand that $150 trillion global debt means every one has been doing the wrong activities and everything is uneconomic.

You don't understand that debt is not just a ledger item, it also reflects real waste of human years, wrong skills acquired, wrong decisions made, etc.. These real problems are not corrected just by changing a line on the financial ledger.

This frustration is why riots and global unrest (and the war cycle) is increasing all over the world right now. There is no way to avoid the global deflation contagion.

This is Gold.

Quote
Total hell is about to hits us in 2 years or less.

Just in time with the Bitcoin exponential increase hitting 1-10% of the general population. Cause or effect?
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February 12, 2014, 12:08:39 PM
 #39

Also didn't the Romans suffer from inflation when they diluted the silver content of their coins in 3rd century to fund the wars and bloated Roman government. Wasn't this the reason for the fall of the Roman Empire?

You don't understand relative size. The USA is still the driver of the global economy. The Yuan does not have enough size and liquidity to replace the dollar during the cycle. China will first significantly correct because their corporate debts are the highest in the world now, their economy is incredibly unbalanced and dependent on exports and fixed capital investment (no worse example in human history).

Also I don't believe the US drives the world economy, the US profits at the expense of the other world nations by importing their goods in exchange for their paper. Yes the US has caused many bubbles in foreign markets but the biggest bubble is in Washington and I'm not saying China or any other country will come out of this good but the US are going to suffer the most.
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February 12, 2014, 03:35:24 PM
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Can you explain to me though the mechanism by which deflation occurs? Perhaps a hypothetical walkthrough.

Essentially do you expect the controllers of USA to print away their global reserve hegemony, when instead they can confiscate the wealth and cause a massive dollar short rally? Never had happened the way you expect. It is always the way Armstrong and I are explaining to you.

Why do you think Homelove "hands down your pants" Security will be procuring 2714 tank-like vehicles and 10 billion hollow point bullets (illegal in war by Hague Convention due to being so gruesome), deputized non-federal police as federal, we have FEMA detention camps constructed all over the country, Obama destroying gun rights by executive orders, NSA tracking everything Americans do on the internet and telecommunications, etc..

Here are links explaining why the world will beg for the dollar, the opposite of discarding it as you would expect in hyperinflation:

http://armstrongeconomics.com/693-2/2013-2/can-the-world-really-abandon-the-dollar-as-a-reserve-currency/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/05/08/dollar-trade-reserves/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/693-2/2012-2/where-do-empires-go-to-die-and-when-they-do-die-how-do-empires-die/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/08/11/defining-hyperinflation-the-coming-new-currency/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/03/05/beware-the-dollar-rally/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/03/29/the-short-dollar-the-debt-bubble/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/03/29/latin-america-dollar-loans/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/03/29/cyprus-confiscation-of-assets-is-global-plan/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/03/28/russia-also-attacking-private-groups/

Also didn't the Romans suffer from inflation when they diluted the silver content of their coins in 3rd century to fund the wars and bloated Roman government.

There was only a very brief hyperinflation (no silver coinage at all!) in Rome in 3rd century as you will see on the silver price chart. That chart cost Armstrong $21 million to produce. Rather it was a gradual debasement for 100s of years.

Rather major core governments never go willingly to destroy their power. Instead they do what ever is necessary to maintain it. You did not read all the hyperinflation links I already gave you as follows.

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/03/17/what-are-the-odds-the-us-defaults/
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/01/28/here-we-go-again-hypreinflation/

Quote from: Martin Armstrong
I really do not understand why people insist that HYPERINFLATION must take place. That ASSUMES government will print to meet its unfunded obligations rather than just change laws and fail to meet promises. They are cutting entitlements already. Yes Rome debased its currency to the point that its worth was 1/50th of its former value. However, the system devolved into a TWO-TIER monetary system where they refused to accept their own currency in return for taxes. Taxes were imposed “in kind” so they just came and took stuff. In terms of gold, the tax was by weight not by coin so you have tax-collector gold bars that have survived.

Everything is NOT fair and orderly. One of the reasons there was the invention of paper money in the American Colonies is because there was a shortage of coins. Britain insisted anything Americans purchased they had to pay in silver or gold. But what the British purchased from America they paid in copper.

Wasn't this the reason for the fall of the Roman Empire?

No. It was debt that misallocated all the resources, just as we have now with $150 trillion in global debt, i.e. $25,000 per human including babies, elderly and billions of poor earning less than $10 per day (how can they pay their $25,000 share!).

http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=4946&cpage=1#comment-402900

Quote from: JustSaying a.k.a. AnonyMint
@Winter:
You attempt to remove blame from the effects of top-down governance. Agriculture in Western Europe declined for numerous reasons all of which can be attributed to mismanagement due to top-down control and the funding of such misallocation. Socialized debt is a future tax. The agricultural sector was suffering under increasing taxes after the hyperinflation of the 3rd century had adversely impacted funding for the military while there were increasing military threats to the east. Pottery records indicate production increased through the 4th, as the rural sector was squeezed for every drop by Rome. As with all debt funding, growth was too rapid, and irrigation was polluted by clearing for too many new settlements. The resultant malnutrition, declining production, localized warlords, and thus disease coincided with the collapse of Western Europe due to the bankruptcy of its top-down militarized, servitude model.

We will likely find the same top-down cause applies to of all Dark Ages– even the famines in Africa.


You don't understand relative size. The USA is still the driver of the global economy. The Yuan does not have enough size and liquidity to replace the dollar during the cycle. China will first significantly correct because their corporate debts are the highest in the world now, their economy is incredibly unbalanced and dependent on exports and fixed capital investment (no worse example in human history).

Also I don't believe the US drives the world economy, the US profits at the expense of the other world nations by importing their goods in exchange for their paper. Yes the US has caused many bubbles in foreign markets but the biggest bubble is in Washington and I'm not saying China or any other country will come out of this good but the US are going to suffer the most.

What you emotionally like to think (bad boy USA will be thwarted) is irrelevant. The core economy is the core because it has the most technology, the strongest military, the most highly developed financial systems and social capital. And I am very sorry that don't have time to argue with you and teach you this macro economics.

China is extremely corrupt with the elite taking out most of the profits, please go read my mpettis.com links. Note I wrote the following recently which somewhat agrees with your caveat above.

Armstrong writes about misleading China trade data. He says importers are bringing in cash in a carry trade. I had also read that exporters offshore and hide profits in Singapore and Hong Kong, so this understates the trade imbalances and makes it look like Chinese factories are not profitable.

Essentially the elite of China are extracting all some or much (not sure which) of the wealth from the people. And they are exacerbating the debt bubble and misallocation of capital to the wrong activities and oversupply. This is not a sustainable domestic doom, but rather a bubble.

This is why I have written that China must go through economic implosion chaos and an overthrow of the elite before it can really grow again.

What the non-western countries have in their favor is very low government share of GDP because the social welfare institution is not as perverse. But what they have in their disfavor is they have an elite top-down structure that is standing in the way of bottom-up economic growth. So the developing world must also go through the chaos/riots of the uptick in the war cycle that Armstrong's model predicts.

The developing world has to less to fall because they are already lower economically with less social promises. Yet the fall will still be very painful since they have so many at the poverty line already.

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