2014 is NOT the year of bitcoin, sorry

[pungopete468]

Less than $3,700 this year would mean this is not a (relatively) good year for Bitcoin. The entry point in 2014 is $740 and anything less than 5x appreciation in a consecutive 12 month period isn't spectacular performance (historically) for Bitcoin... 2012 For instance, was a very poor performing year in that Bitcoin only appreciated ~4x if you bought and sold on Jan 1 of each year.

Edit: to clarify - Bitcoin is in infancy, the years of exponential growth are only just beginning. Logarithmic S curves tend to show their hand early...

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[Dafar]

I'll bet you exactly 1 BTC that by the end of this year, the price will have seen $1200, Bitstamp.

Hell no, that's very likely... but that doesn't make 2014 "the year of bitcoin" like 2013 was. $1200?! We used to be so much more ambitious

If you don't consider seeing $1,200 in 2014 to make 2014 "the year of bitcoin", then can you tell us what your criteria would be for 2014 to be the "year of bitcoin"?

(I'm not saying that I think $1,200 is the thing, either, but I as an optimist am interested in hearing what a pessimist like Dafar thinks)

What the guy above me said. Look at the growth in 2012 and 2013 and compare it to the growth $1200 would bring this year, hardly the "year of bitcoin"

[BitcoinBobbeh]

Look at the growth in 2012 and 2013 and compare it to the growth $1200 would bring this year, hardly the "year of bitcoin"

2012 For instance, was a very poor performing year in that Bitcoin only appreciated ~4x if you bought and sold on Jan 1 of each year.

Apparently a 400% rise is poor 


Dafar, If your only criteria for it not being a "Year of Bitcoin" is "the price didn't rise enough for me to buy a 2nd home", then I think we have different thought processes.

That would mean 2013 was also not a "Year of Bitcoin" seeing as how the $1200 price at the end of the year was obviously inflated mania. The real increase ($120 to about $600) would have been about 500%.

I'd be happy with a very slow and constant rise to $1200 or more by the end of this year - an ATH price that can be supported with a steady, increasing userbase and mainstream acceptance. THAT would make 2014 the year of Bitcoin.

Then again... EVERY YEAR has been the year of Bitcoin as far as I'm concerned, whether the momentum is gained from huge price increases, mainstream acceptance, surviving a scandal, etc. The fact that we're at $650 now, after everything that's happened, coupled with nothing but good news on the horizon, makes me think we'll be just fine.

There's also the very real possibility that the price at the end of 2014 will make us both look like retards. There's 9 months to go...here's hoping.

[grifferz]

If you don't consider seeing $1,200 in 2014 to make 2014 "the year of bitcoin", then can you tell us what your criteria would be for 2014 to be the "year of bitcoin"?

(I'm not saying that I think $1,200 is the thing, either, but I as an optimist am interested in hearing what a pessimist like Dafar thinks)

What the guy above me said. Look at the growth in 2012 and 2013 and compare it to the growth $1200 would bring this year, hardly the "year of bitcoin"

I see.

It's very disappointing that not only do you purely see the success of bitcoin in terms of profit made through speculation, but also that your requirements for that are so high. I don't think that we have any common ground that we could even agree on criteria for what would make "the year of bitcoin" - while seeing $1200 again would be nice, if that was all that was achieved then I would be unimpressed.

I appreciate that bitcoin is not the same thing for everyone, and that to some extent speculators are required in order for there to be success, but do you not think that if Satoshi were purely driven by profit and personal gain then bitcoin probably would never have happened? That is, bitcoin was clearly not designed purely to make early adopters ultra-rich, that is just a happy by-product of its success. It was designed to improve society as we know it.

For me the criteria for a "year of bitcoin" would therefore involve some clear benefit to society as a whole, not just making a minority rich.

It is essential that some people (not everyone) do things with bitcoin that don't just involve buying low and selling high.

[pungopete468]

If you don't consider seeing $1,200 in 2014 to make 2014 "the year of bitcoin", then can you tell us what your criteria would be for 2014 to be the "year of bitcoin"?

(I'm not saying that I think $1,200 is the thing, either, but I as an optimist am interested in hearing what a pessimist like Dafar thinks)

What the guy above me said. Look at the growth in 2012 and 2013 and compare it to the growth $1200 would bring this year, hardly the "year of bitcoin"

I see.

It's very disappointing that not only do you purely see the success of bitcoin in terms of profit made through speculation, but also that your requirements for that are so high. I don't think that we have any common ground that we could even agree on criteria for what would make "the year of bitcoin" - while seeing $1200 again would be nice, if that was all that was achieved then I would be unimpressed.

I appreciate that bitcoin is not the same thing for everyone, and that to some extent speculators are required in order for there to be success, but do you not think that if Satoshi were purely driven by profit and personal gain then bitcoin probably would never have happened? That is, bitcoin was clearly not designed purely to make early adopters ultra-rich, that is just a happy by-product of its success. It was designed to improve society as we know it.

For me the criteria for a "year of bitcoin" would therefore involve some clear benefit to society as a whole, not just making a minority rich.

It is essential that some people (not everyone) do things with bitcoin that don't just involve buying low and selling high.

I don't look at Bitcoin in terms of price, nor would you see me call it the year of Bitcoin. Bitcoins survival is good enough for me; and the year of Bitcoin will be the year it's opponents give up trying to destroy it.

I do think that in order to claim a title you have to beat a previously established record. People weren't talking directly about the maximum USD price when they called 2013 "the year of Bitcoin" they were talking about it's exponential explosion of value. A 400% increase would not claim this title in 2014...

I support Bitcoin avidly but I'm not going to shy away from a legitimate answer just because I have a problem with the potential inferred association of the question.

[Dafar]

I'd be happy with a very slow and constant rise to $1200 or more by the end of this year - an ATH price that can be supported with a steady, increasing userbase and mainstream acceptance. THAT would make 2014 the year of Bitcoin.

You want a boring slow and steady increase? Congrats, you have one now. And IT SUCKS! Most of the positive media attention and excitement are derived from the insane price increases. It makes bitcoin an attractive investment, it gives it the attention it needs and it's the reason that draws most people into bitcoin whether you like it or not. But instead we are surrounded with FUD, because when the price is boring the negativity speaks louder and morale of the community takes a hit. You're not doing any favors for bitcoin by pretending to be humble and selfless and not caring about the price.

Then again... EVERY YEAR has been the year of Bitcoin as far as I'm concerned, whether the momentum is gained from huge price increases, mainstream acceptance, surviving a scandal, etc. The fact that we're at $650 now, after everything that's happened, coupled with nothing but good news on the horizon, makes me think we'll be just fine.

There's also the very real possibility that the price at the end of 2014 will make us both look like retards. There's 9 months to go...here's hoping.

It can still go anywhere that's for sure. But when I say "year of bitcoin" I'm also talking about the positive attention, positive news, all the developments, etc.. 2013 was an amazing year, and the price had a lot to do with it, I would even say right now it's one of the most important because it brings bitcoin positive attention which also helps it grow.

[ZiG]

I don't know is 2014 will be ...or NOT...the "year of Bitcoin"...

But Dafar's "crystal ball" prediction is definitely "The most retarded post of the 2014" ...so far...

Congratulations to the winner..lol

[grifferz]

You want a boring slow and steady increase? Congrats, you have one now. And IT SUCKS! Most of the positive media attention and excitement are derived from the insane price increases. It makes bitcoin an attractive investment, it gives it the attention it needs and it's the reason that draws most people into bitcoin whether you like it or not. But instead we are surrounded with FUD, because when the price is boring the negativity speaks louder and morale of the community takes a hit. You're not doing any favors for bitcoin by pretending to be humble and selfless and not caring about the price.

Oh my word, no, I suppose what we should be doing instead of actually promoting the use of bitcoin is starting topics that preach doom and gloom all because we've seen 2 and a bit months of downturn?

I can't understand it from a general bitcoin point of view, I can't even understand it from a speculator point of view. I don't think I ever will, so I better just leave you to it.

[Sindelar1938]

you might be right, the caveated counter is that when things move they move fast so we might see that kind of fast upward action again in a 2 or 3 week burst

[bgmc]

go to hell loser.  as long as we can buy weed and cocaine with bitcoins everything will be a-OK!!

LMAO

[jtsnau]

Let's look at that old adage from Gandhi that's oft quoted around here:

"First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win."

If we accept that, then this is how I see it:

2009 to 2012:  The "ignore" phase - no resistance, so price rose easily.
2013:  The "laugh" phase - again, little resistance, so price rose easily.
2013-2015:  The "fight" phase - huge resistance (regulation, attempts to ban, etc.), so the price doesn't rise (much).
2016:  The "win" phase - all the regulations are now in place, the way forward is clear, the price skyrockets.

Of course, this assumes we win the "fight" phase.

[niothor]

Let's look at that old adage from Gandhi that's oft quoted around here:

"First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win."

If we accept that, then this is how I see it:

2009 to 2012:  The "ignore" phase - no resistance, so price rose easily.
2013:  The "laugh" phase - again, little resistance, so price rose easily.
2014-2015:  The "fight" phase - huge resistance (regulation, attempts to ban, etc.), so the price doesn't rise (much).
2016:  The "win" phase - all the regulations are now in place, the way forward is clear, the price skyrockets.

Of course, this assumes we win the "fight" phase.

Put that in 2013. It's 2013 when both regulation and ban talks started.

[Stalker1337]

U don't know what is going to happen in this year, time show us the price in this year of course.
Reg.

[roslinpl]

U don't know what is going to happen in this year, time show us the price in this year of course.
Reg.

Sure nobody knows.
Last year price multiply about x30 times so ... :-)  nothing is impossible.

[BitcoinBobbeh]

You want a boring slow and steady increase? Congrats, you have one now. And IT SUCKS! Most of the positive media attention and excitement are derived from the insane price increases. It makes bitcoin an attractive investment, it gives it the attention it needs and it's the reason that draws most people into bitcoin whether you like it or not. But instead we are surrounded with FUD, because when the price is boring the negativity speaks louder and morale of the community takes a hit. You're not doing any favors for bitcoin by pretending to be humble and selfless and not caring about the price.



It can still go anywhere that's for sure. But when I say "year of bitcoin" I'm also talking about the positive attention, positive news, all the developments, etc.. 2013 was an amazing year, and the price had a lot to do with it, I would even say right now it's one of the most important because it brings bitcoin positive attention which also helps it grow.

You sound like a coked up wall street stock broker. I mean that in the nicest of ways.

The current price situation is not ideal,  but you have to remember that even with growing acceptance there are still thousands of Bitcoins entering the economy each day. I think we're fine, all things considered.

What I don't get is if you feel this way, WHY would you post a doom-sayer's rant TWO MONTHS into the new year about Bitcoin sucking? FUD never did no one no good no how.

[Dafar]

Where did I say or imply bitcoin is doomed? I didn't even hint at that


And this is just my opinion, it's a speculation... no need to get upset over it because 1/4 of the year has passed and so far I am right.

[BitcoinBobbeh]

Where did I say or imply bitcoin is doomed? I didn't even hint at that

And this is just my opinion, it's a speculation... no need to get upset over it because 1/4 of the year has passed and so far I am right.

So accept my bet 

[Dafar]

What was your bet?

[BitcoinBobbeh]

I'll bet you exactly 1 BTC that by the end of this year, the price will have seen $1200, Bitstamp.

You can update the wager to your liking.

[Dafar]

I'll bet you exactly 1 BTC that by the end of this year, the price will have seen $1200, Bitstamp.

You can update the wager to your liking.

Nah... I like to keep my word when I make bets and I don't want to lose 1 BTC... like I said $1200 is likely to happen. I think we're gonna be in a boring $600-800 range until July or August.. and then our next rally will take us a little over $2000, correcting back to the $1200 range. Which is not bad, but I don't consider it "the year of btc" after the excitement of last year