Transferring 25k into Gox to buy at current prices

[ArticMine]

I would rather open an account with either AvaTrade or Plus500 and go long on the GoxBTC/GoxUSD currency pair. There is a good chance that this trade can be profitable, and one can then get the USD out and trade then for BTC at market through an exchange that is working.

First of all, kudos to you for understanding counterparty risk.

However, I don't think this will work.  I checked out both AvaTrade and Plus500 and they close all bitcoin positions monthly, on the same day of the month for all accounts, which almost certainly means that they are putting in a wire transfer request to gox once a month.  If that wire doesn't come back and not enough customers show up in the first week-or-so of next month to offset, they will proceed to screw the previous month's customers for the balance, appealing to force majeure.  I'm pretty sure their risk management strategy here is to pipeline the whole thing and then drag their feet on withdrawals if the pipeline dries up while gox is in no-wire-transfer mode.

It's the Lloyd's reinsurance-to-close scam, writ small.

They closing Bitcoin positions monthly has nothing to do with withdrawing funds. One can close a CFD position at any time, and these are instruments designed for short term trading.  I have withdrawn USD, my profits, on a weekly basis many times from AvaTrade with no problem after MTGox was not withdrawing USD or CAD. Furthermore they have CFDs for major and some minor currency pairs, stocks, indices precious metals etc. BTC and now LTC is a small part of their business. It is basically a bet on the GoxBTC/GoxUSD rate and there plenty of ways to hedge this on their part with little or no counterparty exposure to MTGox. Will this last? No, mainly because it is only a matter of time before they switch to BitStamp, in fact I suggested they do this myself to them.

Edit: I am not suggesting anyone deposit fiat or BTC into MTGox. I voted this as "Incomprehensibly idiotic"

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[gambit1]

Transferring fiat into gox is not incomprehensibly idiotic. It is idiotically incomprehensible.

[Oldminer]

You got a lot of goxcoins. Time will tell if you can convert them into bitcoins.

+1

[roslinpl]

So? How many GoxCoins are aound mt gox?

It is like in Poland - our prime minister Tusk transfer all of our money to ZUSCoin ("Zakład Ubezpieczeń Społecznych" - Social insurance ")

So now, when  I will retire I will get 1 ZUSCoin for a month
Same like GoxCoin :]

[jubalix]

I would rather open an account with either AvaTrade or Plus500 and go long on the GoxBTC/GoxUSD currency pair. There is a good chance that this trade can be profitable, and one can then get the USD out and trade then for BTC at market through an exchange that is working.

First of all, kudos to you for understanding counterparty risk.

However, I don't think this will work.  I checked out both AvaTrade and Plus500 and they close all bitcoin positions monthly, on the same day of the month for all accounts, which almost certainly means that they are putting in a wire transfer request to gox once a month.  If that wire doesn't come back and not enough customers show up in the first week-or-so of next month to offset, they will proceed to screw the previous month's customers for the balance, appealing to force majeure.  I'm pretty sure their risk management strategy here is to pipeline the whole thing and then drag their feet on withdrawals if the pipeline dries up while gox is in no-wire-transfer mode.

It's the Lloyd's reinsurance-to-close scam, writ small.

ahhhh so a whole months worth of trade win can be gox'd....I don't quite get what you mean by "not enough customers show up", you shorts so they can internally balance?

[eldentyrell]

I would rather open an account with either AvaTrade or Plus500 and go long on the GoxBTC/GoxUSD currency pair. There is a good chance that this trade can be profitable, and one can then get the USD out and trade then for BTC at market through an exchange that is working.

I'm pretty sure their risk management strategy here is to pipeline the whole thing and then drag their feet on withdrawals if the pipeline dries up while gox is in no-wire-transfer mode.

I'd like to hear from anybody who had a (profitable) position with either of these two providers during the last "cycle" when they offered mtgox-indexed btc trades.  That's probably the week ending 14-Feb.  Did you get your money out safely?  Because the CFD provider's hedge account certainly didn't.

[yrtrnc]

Hey, I was on vacation for a week. Just got back and saw your post. Id say go for it.

[Mythul]

I feel sorry for your loss by it is your gamble after all.

[DieJohnny]

Hey, I was on vacation for a week. Just got back and saw your post. Id say go for it.

Haha I never took the gamble, stayed away from my gox acct as it tanked, I am amazed how Many people voted to take the chance, it made me think twice but my conservative nature got the best of me.

[yrtrnc]

Hey, I was on vacation for a week. Just got back and saw your post. Id say go for it.

Haha I never took the gamble, stayed away from my gox acct as it tanked, I am amazed how Many people voted to take the chance, it made me think twice but my conservative nature got the best of me.

Good man!

[barbs]

hey there - is it too late to get in on this one? We can split the fees?

[DieJohnny]

I feel sorry for your loss by it is your gamble after all.

Title of post should have ended in a question mark as this was a speculative statement, I kept my fiat out. Feel bad for those that didn't. I did lose a little money I had stuck in gox and I won't lose any sleep over it

Thank god for paper wallets

[ElectricMucus]

If I were a mod I would make this thread a sticky.

[seleme]

To be honest, if I had a way to move fiat from other exchanges to Gox when they were around 100$, I'd send 10k$ or so there.

[kireinaha]

Hey, I was on vacation for a week. Just got back and saw your post. Id say go for it.

Haha I never took the gamble, stayed away from my gox acct as it tanked, I am amazed how Many people voted to take the chance, it made me think twice but my conservative nature got the best of me.

good to hear, i was honestly shocked for the past couple weeks by the sheer number of people here who believed that gox was going through a temporary setback and would pull through; I don't know if it was naivety, blind optimism or just no experience dealing with a company in a death spiral, but from an unbiased observer, mtgox had trouble written all over it (i've seen the pattern in other companies before). hopefully a lesson learned for some. bitcoin itself is risky enough already.