Transferring 25k into Gox to buy at current prices

[DieJohnny]

$300 BTC is mighty appealing............................................ hmmmmmmm

[1714881241]

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[EuroTrash]

$300 BTC is mighty appealing............................................ hmmmmmmm

Just today a friend of mine who's not into bitcoin saw a graph with the Gox price  and decided to get involved.
His first question was what is the quickest way to get money into MtGox and which currency should he use on MtGox.

Of course I told him to stay away from MtGox.

But if you think you know what you're doing, then suit yourself.

[D05GTO]

Uggg, it's the roach motel of exchanges.  Your money checks in but nothing checks out. LOL

[damnek]

I think it's fine to do this with a small percentage of your total investment in btc. Think of gox IOUs as a stock in the virtual currency space. You wouldn't go all in on just gox IOUs right?

[Ibian]

All signs point to gox being incompetent or fraudulent. Or both. Not a good place to have your money.

[ArticMine]

I would rather open an account with either AvaTrade or Plus500 and go long on the GoxBTC/GoxUSD currency pair. There is a good chance that this trade can be profitable, and one can then get the USD out and trade then for BTC at market through an exchange that is working.

This should be considered a very high risk speculative investment when compared to simply holding BTC. There is an even much higher risk in my opinion with depositing either USD or BTC into MTGox, at this time, with a potentially a much lower return.

Edit: This trade idea will not work for US persons.

[UnDerDoG81]

I say worth the risk. If Gox comes back then we will see $900 on gox minutes/hrs later.

[knightcoin]

also hire a hitman, just in case

[roslinpl]

$300 BTC is mighty appealing............................................ hmmmmmmm

Your greed might be not good in that gox case.

[ArticMine]

I say worth the risk. If Gox comes back then we will see $900 on gox minutes/hrs later.

Yes but the USD are then trapped in MTGox, which is why I suggested the CFD route.

[wbaw]

All signs point to gox being incompetent or fraudulent. Or both. Not a good place to have your money.

Not insolvent though. Seems like a good place to make a quick buck if you can get some money in there before the price corrects. Obviously you'd withdraw your BTC as soon as they allow it.

[fonzie]

But what are you going to do if BTC on Bitstamp crashes below 200$ before your money arrives and Gox is still above 300$???

[Ibian]

All signs point to gox being incompetent or fraudulent. Or both. Not a good place to have your money.

Not insolvent though. Seems like a good place to make a quick buck if you can get some money in there before the price corrects. Obviously you'd withdraw your BTC as soon as they allow it.

Why wouldn't they be? That might be the very reason they are not letting people get their money. Not that their solvency means anything until that changes.

[WompRat]

I would say no, but there could be a reasonable exception if you have contacts in Japan and are familiar with their liquidation practices.  They are going to have some bitcoin whatever happens.  The trick would be to make sure you are first in line to get some should they fail.

[yannis7777]

Incomprehensibly idiotic so please send me your money instead brother. At least there is a good chance it will be used towards a good cause.

[BitChick]

You did not have enough options on the poll for me to pick from.

If you had the option "already a millionaire so 25K really is not that big of a risk" I would say go ahead and give it a try.

Otherwise it seems like a pretty risky move.  It is all about putting faith in Mt. Gox.  Putting faith in Bitcoin is already a bit risky it seems so that just adds another layer of risk on top. 

[WompRat]

Perhaps you could buy then immediately begin legal proceedings for the recovery of your property.

[jamesc760]

Go for it, whatchawaitingfor? Knock yourself out, literally!

DieJohnny, very apt name.

[eldentyrell]

I would rather open an account with either AvaTrade or Plus500 and go long on the GoxBTC/GoxUSD currency pair. There is a good chance that this trade can be profitable, and one can then get the USD out and trade then for BTC at market through an exchange that is working.

First of all, kudos to you for understanding counterparty risk.

However, I don't think this will work.  I checked out both AvaTrade and Plus500 and they close all bitcoin positions monthly, on the same day of the month for all accounts, which almost certainly means that they are putting in a wire transfer request to gox once a month.  If that wire doesn't come back and not enough customers show up in the first week-or-so of next month to offset, they will proceed to screw the previous month's customers for the balance, appealing to force majeure.  I'm pretty sure their risk management strategy here is to pipeline the whole thing and then drag their feet on withdrawals if the pipeline dries up while gox is in no-wire-transfer mode.

It's the Lloyd's reinsurance-to-close scam, writ small.

[chesthing]

This poll is a joke, right?

[sgbett]

I would rather open an account with either AvaTrade or Plus500 and go long on the GoxBTC/GoxUSD currency pair. There is a good chance that this trade can be profitable, and one can then get the USD out and trade then for BTC at market through an exchange that is working.

First of all, kudos to you for understanding counterparty risk.

However, I don't think this will work.  I checked out both AvaTrade and Plus500 and they close all bitcoin positions monthly, on the same day of the month for all accounts, which almost certainly means that they are putting in a wire transfer request to gox once a month.  If that wire doesn't come back and not enough customers show up in the first week-or-so of next month to offset, they will proceed to screw the previous month's customers for the balance, appealing to force majeure.  I'm pretty sure their risk management strategy here is to pipeline the whole thing and then drag their feet on withdrawals if the pipeline dries up while gox is in no-wire-transfer mode.

It's the Lloyd's reinsurance-to-close scam, writ small.

So, in short, you are saying wire it all directly to gox

[MrVivaldi]

I believe that the Bitcoin market has already answered that question. The market seems to feel as if this is very risky, thus you see a 50% cut in the price of GoxBTC as opposed to BTC.
If MtGox had access to the coins they could just transfer them to other exchanges sell off and buy on their own and make crazy arbitrage.

Manual Bitcoin withdrawals should be available for larger orders. There is definitely something fishy about MtGox.

[eldentyrell]

It's the Lloyd's reinsurance-to-close scam, writ small.

So, in short, you are saying wire it all directly to gox

No, I'm saying that if gox folds you will get screwed either way.

Essentially you're betting the goxbtc-price goes up a lot before gox implodes.  I suppose the difference is that with the CFD you get to make the bet each month and exit with a small loss if neither of these happened -- instead of being locked in until one does.

But it's still the same bet.

If gox implodes I'm pretty certain a lot of CFD customers will get screwed, and the financial regulators will not care.

[eldentyrell]

If gox implodes I'm pretty certain a lot of CFD customers will get screwed, and the financial regulators will not care.

From avatrade's terms and conditions:

There may be certain cases in which trading liquidity decreases, causing CFDs and Options in commodities, currencies metals and indices to cease, thereby preventing the liquidation of an adverse position which may result in a substantial financial loss.

In the event of default of one of our appointed credit institutions, AvaTrade does not accept responsibility and is not subject to any liability arising from losses to clients arising from such a default.

Yeah, I'm pretty sure that's what they're gonna point to after the goxpocalypse.

[sgbett]

It's the Lloyd's reinsurance-to-close scam, writ small.

So, in short, you are saying wire it all directly to gox

No, I'm saying that if gox folds you will get screwed either way.

Essentially you're betting the goxbtc-price goes up a lot before gox implodes.  I suppose the difference is that with the CFD you get to make the bet each month and exit with a small loss if neither of these happened -- instead of being locked in until one does.

But it's still the same bet.

If gox implodes I'm pretty certain a lot of CFD customers will get screwed, and the financial regulators will not care.

I merely joke. I know either way its a risky bet, fwiw I've taken it on (or at least I will when karpeles finishes his latte and sets about crediting my account), but not quite for $25k

[disclaimer201]

Gox is 100% untrustworthy.

[evolve]

Gox is All of the exchanges are 100% untrustworthy.

FTFY.

[DPoS]

The easiest way to get money into Gox is to sell doughnuts to that fat fucker running that rathole!!

[chesthing]

Give me $5k instead, I just saved you $20k!

[aminorex]

It would be difficult to imagine how Gox could be insolvent, given that they have had months to buy BTC at market prices and sell them at Gox prices, and now have had days to buy BTC at Gox prices and sell them at market prices.  The spreads have been very wide, and very profitable, and it is trivially easy for them to do this.  If they did not, the management should be committed to a psychiatric institution for care.

[Bit_Happy]

Gox lied, people cried.
The low price is tempting

[MatTheCat]

I merely joke. I know either way its a risky bet, fwiw I've taken it on (or at least I will when karpeles finishes his latte and sets about crediting my account), but not quite for $25k

    

So perhaps not of all of those thousands of BTC being sold on Gox in between 350 and 360 are fake volume?

[ScaryHash]

Good luck with that.

I have a bridge that leads to the ocean from Arizona to sell you.

Completely, 100% safe investment for the future, as it is well known that California will fall into the ocean, at some point in the next 100 million years.

Which is about the same time you will actually see your money deposited into Gox.

I'd go for the real estate if I were you, at least you're guaranteed to get sand at either end of that bridge. With Gox, you're guaranteed to get nothing.

[Oldminer]

Dude, Ive been fighting with gox support to get a mere 2BTC (or $2000) OUT of their exchange for EIGHT weeks and your looking at putting money IN?? 

[TERA]

Dude, Ive been fighting with gox support to get a mere 2BTC (or $2000) OUT of their exchange for EIGHT weeks and your looking at putting money IN?? 

Think of it like a double or nothing gamble. If gox support fixes the withdrawals, then he doubles his money. If they don't, then he gets nothing. However, it's possible that even if they never fix btc withdrawal, he may be able to get the fiat back so it's actually better than double or nothing.

[hostmaster]

biggest risk taking no risk

[Oldminer]

Dude, Ive been fighting with gox support to get a mere 2BTC (or $2000) OUT of their exchange for EIGHT weeks and your looking at putting money IN?? 

Think of it like a double or nothing gamble. If gox support fixes the withdrawals, then he doubles his money. If they don't, then he gets nothing. However, it's possible that even if they never fix btc withdrawal, he may be able to get the fiat back so it's actually better than double or nothing.

This will not end well.

[BitcoinHawker]

Uggg, it's the roach motel of exchanges.  Your money checks in but nothing checks out. LOL

 

[DieJohnny]

It would be difficult to imagine how Gox could be insolvent, given that they have had months to buy BTC at market prices and sell them at Gox prices, and now have had days to buy BTC at Gox prices and sell them at market prices.  The spreads have been very wide, and very profitable, and it is trivially easy for them to do this.  If they did not, the management should be committed to a psychiatric institution for care.

I think i am aligned with this thinking. I can't imagine that Gox hasn't taken advantage of this situation to close any financial holes they may be dealing with. I think the only way Gox bellies up at this point would be if they are indeed truly going to walk away with everyone's coins and if that was their intention it would have already happened.

[chesthing]

Dude, Ive been fighting with gox support to get a mere 2BTC (or $2000) OUT of their exchange for EIGHT weeks and your looking at putting money IN?? 

Think of it like a double or nothing gamble. If gox support fixes the withdrawals, then he doubles his money. If they don't, then he gets nothing. However, it's possible that even if they never fix btc withdrawal, he may be able to get the fiat back so it's actually better than double or nothing.

Worst. Advice. Ever.
If the op decides to spend $25k to Gox he deserves whatever he gets. I do feel bad for folks like Oldtimer who bought before it became obvious this was a black hole.

[Ibian]

It would be difficult to imagine how Gox could be insolvent, given that they have had months to buy BTC at market prices and sell them at Gox prices, and now have had days to buy BTC at Gox prices and sell them at market prices.  The spreads have been very wide, and very profitable, and it is trivially easy for them to do this.  If they did not, the management should be committed to a psychiatric institution for care.

I think i am aligned with this thinking. I can't imagine that Gox hasn't taken advantage of this situation to close any financial holes they may be dealing with. I think the only way Gox bellies up at this point would be if they are indeed truly going to walk away with everyone's coins and if that was their intention it would have already happened.

Have to make it appear legal. Or at least not illegal enough to end up behind bars for very long. That means putting up a facade of trying to save a troubled business.

[thelema93]

$300 BTC is mighty appealing............................................ hmmmmmmm

Despite what a thousand Fuddy trolls on this forum will tell you - Gox DOES pay out. I have had many cash withdrawals from them and basically never had any issues with them. The current bug -fixing halt on BTC withdrawals is a bit worrying, but I don't see any factual reason to think that they are lying about that. They want to remain the biggest exchange so obviously they will fix the problem. BUY THE COINS NOW while they are cheap!

[Mythul]

Well if 25k doesn't mean that much to you then I guess it is "ok-ish".

[fluidjax]

I think a lot of people listen and believe the fud a little too much.
Gox has had problems in the past, poorly communicated, pissed off many people, but came through and continued.
I have little doubt it will do the same this time, confidence will have dropped even more, but it will return, people will get their BTC and wait ridiculous times for their fiat. The price will increase to 10-15% over stamp.
There is some risk, but there is also much reward from buying BTC on Gox now.
 For me, I would say that the reward outways the risk.

[Bitbuy]

True, this is a high risk gamble...but it could pay off...
I do think that Gox will implement SOME limitiation though.
Else: people buy cheap coins now, and as soon as BTC withdrawal is possible -> bank run (gox run). I don't think they will allow this in some way or another (e.g some "communication"

[rocks]

You can check your money, but you can't check it out.

[EuroTrash]

also hire a hitman, just in case

Yes, rumour has it there are some hitmen offering their services on Silk Road

Think of it like a double or nothing gamble. If gox support fixes the withdrawals, then he doubles his money. If they don't, then he gets nothing. However, it's possible that even if they never fix btc withdrawal, he may be able to get the fiat back so it's actually better than double or nothing.

I like that line of thinking. Basically he is buying CDS denominated in Goxdollars, which he'll exchange on Gox for CDS denominated in GoxBTC. Actually all money on any exchange (or either in a bank account) can be thought of as if it were a CDS - in the sense that it is a gamble on whether the exchange will honour their obligation to you. Am I correct here?

And 25k USD are pocket money for some of us (not me).

You can check your money, but you can't check it out.

"Welcome to Hotel California" singing in my head  

[igorr]

True, this is a high risk gamble...but it could pay off...
I do think that Gox will implement SOME limitiation though.
Else: people buy cheap coins now, and as soon as BTC withdrawal is possible -> bank run (gox run). I don't think they will allow this in some way or another (e.g some "communication"

better play holdem poker.

[technocoma]

Pretty high risk but gox have had all sorts of problems in the past but nearly always been able to hold onto users funds (bar once but it was paid back).

Also depends on how much $25k is to you. If its all the money you have then no its stupid.

Better chance than betting it on dice games imo, but who knows. As long as you know its a high risk gamble & can afford it then go for it if it goes as planned you will at least double up maybe triple.

[igorr]

If we were deceived of mtgox, can we also be deceived and of Bitstamp?

[Mikcik]

True, this is a high risk gamble...but it could pay off...
I do think that Gox will implement SOME limitiation though.
Else: people buy cheap coins now, and as soon as BTC withdrawal is possible -> bank run (gox run). I don't think they will allow this in some way or another (e.g some "communication"

OMG (!). There could not be any run on GOX since it doesnt have any fractional reserve system applied to BTC (at least they say they dont, if they had it would be a fraud).

I was also thinking about doing so, but only with around $500 which i can afford to lose, and as far as i know, gox had problems sending fiat out of exchange for months, but the problems with withdrawl of BTC is present only currently for a limited time period...? Its a new thing that occured only a week ago, so sending in fait and getting out BTC shouldnt be an issue... or is also the BTC withdrawl problem ongoing for several weeks or months?? (i dont pay attention to gox so i dont know)...

[fluidjax]

If we were deceived of mtgox, can we also be deceived and of Bitstamp?

FUD...almost everything is possible.
Either evidence or shut up.

[igorr]

If we were deceived of mtgox, can we also be deceived and of Bitstamp?

FUD...almost everything is possible.
Either evidence or shut up.

should be cautious before, because it's late when your scams, as in the case of mtgox !

[fluidjax]

If we were deceived of mtgox, can we also be deceived and of Bitstamp?

FUD...almost everything is possible.
Either evidence or shut up.

should be cautious before, because it's late when your scams, as in the case of mtgox !

It doesn't need saying that everyone should use caution when it comes to Bitcoin.
But implying or suggesting that some company could be dishonest simply because it is possible, is bullshit and FUD.
Without any further information or evidence you are spreading fear with an agenda.

[T.Stuart]

$300 BTC is mighty appealing............................................ hmmmmmmm

[EuroTrash]

http://www.coindesk.com/mt-gox-users-awaiting-funds-survey-reveals/

(Sorry for repeat posting)

[bitleif]

Sending money to Gox right now is like buying a lottery ticket. Results may be very good or results may be zero, there is little inbetween. As long as you're aware of that, do whatever you want.

[prof7bit]

Its too late.

By the time the fiat is in gox the withdrawal problems will be fixed and btc/goxusd above $800 again. I personally was lucky to have a 5 figure EUR amount already sitting in my gox account, so I got a lot of cheap coins :-)

[Ibian]

Its too late.

By the time the fiat is in gox the withdrawal problems will be fixed and btc/goxusd above $800 again. I personally was lucky to have a 5 figure EUR amount already sitting in my gox account, so I got a lot of cheap coins :-)

You got a lot of goxcoins. Time will tell if you can convert them into bitcoins.

[roslinpl]

haha! GoxCoins

You can play with them how long you want But ... might not win this game.

[ArticMine]

I would rather open an account with either AvaTrade or Plus500 and go long on the GoxBTC/GoxUSD currency pair. There is a good chance that this trade can be profitable, and one can then get the USD out and trade then for BTC at market through an exchange that is working.

First of all, kudos to you for understanding counterparty risk.

However, I don't think this will work.  I checked out both AvaTrade and Plus500 and they close all bitcoin positions monthly, on the same day of the month for all accounts, which almost certainly means that they are putting in a wire transfer request to gox once a month.  If that wire doesn't come back and not enough customers show up in the first week-or-so of next month to offset, they will proceed to screw the previous month's customers for the balance, appealing to force majeure.  I'm pretty sure their risk management strategy here is to pipeline the whole thing and then drag their feet on withdrawals if the pipeline dries up while gox is in no-wire-transfer mode.

It's the Lloyd's reinsurance-to-close scam, writ small.

They closing Bitcoin positions monthly has nothing to do with withdrawing funds. One can close a CFD position at any time, and these are instruments designed for short term trading.  I have withdrawn USD, my profits, on a weekly basis many times from AvaTrade with no problem after MTGox was not withdrawing USD or CAD. Furthermore they have CFDs for major and some minor currency pairs, stocks, indices precious metals etc. BTC and now LTC is a small part of their business. It is basically a bet on the GoxBTC/GoxUSD rate and there plenty of ways to hedge this on their part with little or no counterparty exposure to MTGox. Will this last? No, mainly because it is only a matter of time before they switch to BitStamp, in fact I suggested they do this myself to them.

Edit: I am not suggesting anyone deposit fiat or BTC into MTGox. I voted this as "Incomprehensibly idiotic"

[gambit1]

Transferring fiat into gox is not incomprehensibly idiotic. It is idiotically incomprehensible.

[Oldminer]

You got a lot of goxcoins. Time will tell if you can convert them into bitcoins.

+1

[roslinpl]

So? How many GoxCoins are aound mt gox?

It is like in Poland - our prime minister Tusk transfer all of our money to ZUSCoin ("Zakład Ubezpieczeń Społecznych" - Social insurance ")

So now, when  I will retire I will get 1 ZUSCoin for a month
Same like GoxCoin :]

[jubalix]

I would rather open an account with either AvaTrade or Plus500 and go long on the GoxBTC/GoxUSD currency pair. There is a good chance that this trade can be profitable, and one can then get the USD out and trade then for BTC at market through an exchange that is working.

First of all, kudos to you for understanding counterparty risk.

However, I don't think this will work.  I checked out both AvaTrade and Plus500 and they close all bitcoin positions monthly, on the same day of the month for all accounts, which almost certainly means that they are putting in a wire transfer request to gox once a month.  If that wire doesn't come back and not enough customers show up in the first week-or-so of next month to offset, they will proceed to screw the previous month's customers for the balance, appealing to force majeure.  I'm pretty sure their risk management strategy here is to pipeline the whole thing and then drag their feet on withdrawals if the pipeline dries up while gox is in no-wire-transfer mode.

It's the Lloyd's reinsurance-to-close scam, writ small.

ahhhh so a whole months worth of trade win can be gox'd....I don't quite get what you mean by "not enough customers show up", you shorts so they can internally balance?

[eldentyrell]

I would rather open an account with either AvaTrade or Plus500 and go long on the GoxBTC/GoxUSD currency pair. There is a good chance that this trade can be profitable, and one can then get the USD out and trade then for BTC at market through an exchange that is working.

I'm pretty sure their risk management strategy here is to pipeline the whole thing and then drag their feet on withdrawals if the pipeline dries up while gox is in no-wire-transfer mode.

I'd like to hear from anybody who had a (profitable) position with either of these two providers during the last "cycle" when they offered mtgox-indexed btc trades.  That's probably the week ending 14-Feb.  Did you get your money out safely?  Because the CFD provider's hedge account certainly didn't.

[yrtrnc]

Hey, I was on vacation for a week. Just got back and saw your post. Id say go for it.

[Mythul]

I feel sorry for your loss by it is your gamble after all.

[DieJohnny]

Hey, I was on vacation for a week. Just got back and saw your post. Id say go for it.

Haha I never took the gamble, stayed away from my gox acct as it tanked, I am amazed how Many people voted to take the chance, it made me think twice but my conservative nature got the best of me.

[yrtrnc]

Hey, I was on vacation for a week. Just got back and saw your post. Id say go for it.

Haha I never took the gamble, stayed away from my gox acct as it tanked, I am amazed how Many people voted to take the chance, it made me think twice but my conservative nature got the best of me.

Good man!

[barbs]

hey there - is it too late to get in on this one? We can split the fees?

[DieJohnny]

I feel sorry for your loss by it is your gamble after all.

Title of post should have ended in a question mark as this was a speculative statement, I kept my fiat out. Feel bad for those that didn't. I did lose a little money I had stuck in gox and I won't lose any sleep over it

Thank god for paper wallets

[ElectricMucus]

If I were a mod I would make this thread a sticky.

[seleme]

To be honest, if I had a way to move fiat from other exchanges to Gox when they were around 100$, I'd send 10k$ or so there.

[kireinaha]

Hey, I was on vacation for a week. Just got back and saw your post. Id say go for it.

Haha I never took the gamble, stayed away from my gox acct as it tanked, I am amazed how Many people voted to take the chance, it made me think twice but my conservative nature got the best of me.

good to hear, i was honestly shocked for the past couple weeks by the sheer number of people here who believed that gox was going through a temporary setback and would pull through; I don't know if it was naivety, blind optimism or just no experience dealing with a company in a death spiral, but from an unbiased observer, mtgox had trouble written all over it (i've seen the pattern in other companies before). hopefully a lesson learned for some. bitcoin itself is risky enough already.