Bitcoin Forum
December 11, 2016, 02:20:37 PM *
News: Latest stable version of Bitcoin Core: 0.13.1  [Torrent].
 
   Home   Help Search Donate Login Register  
Pages: [1] 2 »  All
  Print  
Author Topic: Bitcoin Half-Life is About 6 Weeks  (Read 2909 times)
EuSouBitcoin
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 463


View Profile
October 12, 2011, 03:44:17 AM
 #1

BTC has fallen from 32 to 16 to 8 to 4 with a half-life of about 6 weeks. If this continues, we'll see $2 by the end of November, $1 by the end of January and $0.50 by March. Down 88% from it's high of $32. For those who are long BTC, the trend is not your friend.
1481466037
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1481466037

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1481466037
Reply with quote  #2

1481466037
Report to moderator
1481466037
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1481466037

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1481466037
Reply with quote  #2

1481466037
Report to moderator
There are several different types of Bitcoin clients. The most secure are full nodes like Bitcoin-Qt, but full nodes are more resource-heavy, and they must do a lengthy initial syncing process. As a result, lightweight clients with somewhat less security are commonly used.
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
1481466037
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1481466037

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1481466037
Reply with quote  #2

1481466037
Report to moderator
johnj
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 154


View Profile
October 12, 2011, 03:50:01 AM
 #2

At that rate, it'll be at -34 some time next summer.

But your calculation doesn't take into account the massive growth that preceded your projection.

1AeW7QK59HvEJwiyMztFH1ubWPSLLKx5ym
TradeHill Referral TH-R120549
Raptorblaze
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 15


View Profile
October 12, 2011, 03:52:08 AM
 #3

Actually at that rate it'll be an incredibly small decimal. How you got a negative is beyond me.

Donate: 12tBZRNcf4NaGVDzhyV1Hm1Zb2a6RdyZYH
johnj
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 154


View Profile
October 12, 2011, 03:56:54 AM
 #4

Actually at that rate it'll be an incredibly small decimal. How you got a negative is beyond me.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarcasm

1AeW7QK59HvEJwiyMztFH1ubWPSLLKx5ym
TradeHill Referral TH-R120549
payb.tc
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 812



View Profile
October 12, 2011, 04:32:11 AM
 #5

BTC has fallen from 32 to 16 to 8 to 4 with a half-life of about 6 weeks. If this continues, we'll see $2 by the end of November, $1 by the end of January and $0.50 by March.


1up
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 24


View Profile
October 12, 2011, 04:34:05 AM
 #6

Actually at that rate it'll be an incredibly small decimal. How you got a negative is beyond me.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarcasm

Sarcasm doesn't hide your stupidity (or ignorance). Face it, you didn't know what half-life was until the OP pointed out your error.

1BKkkDQLos8GGiLezpFoYm6nCfRY2kSP1M
payb.tc
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 812



View Profile
October 12, 2011, 04:43:12 AM
 #7

Actually at that rate it'll be an incredibly small decimal. How you got a negative is beyond me.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarcasm

Sarcasm doesn't hide your stupidity (or ignorance). Face it, you didn't know what half-life was until the OP pointed out your error.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Half-life
Swishercutter
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 210


View Profile
October 12, 2011, 05:18:44 AM
 #8

Actually at that rate it'll be an incredibly small decimal. How you got a negative is beyond me.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarcasm

Sarcasm doesn't hide your stupidity (or ignorance). Face it, you didn't know what half-life was until the OP pointed out your error.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Half-life


Lol...I find it funny that the people with the lowest post counts are the ones who talk down the most.  Am I right?  I wonder what the ratio is of new "actual users" vs. "sock puppets" is.
SomeoneWeird
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 700


View Profile
October 12, 2011, 08:43:02 AM
 #9

Actually at that rate it'll be an incredibly small decimal. How you got a negative is beyond me.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarcasm

Sarcasm doesn't hide your stupidity (or ignorance). Face it, you didn't know what half-life was until the OP pointed out your error.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Half-life


Didn't you mean http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Half-Life_(series) ?
bulanula
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 518



View Profile
October 12, 2011, 08:48:08 AM
 #10

Actually at that rate it'll be an incredibly small decimal. How you got a negative is beyond me.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarcasm

Sarcasm doesn't hide your stupidity (or ignorance). Face it, you didn't know what half-life was until the OP pointed out your error.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Half-life


Lol...I find it funny that the people with the lowest post counts are the ones who talk down the most.  Am I right?  I wonder what the ratio is of new "actual users" vs. "sock puppets" is.

100 : 1  Grin
fennec
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 76



View Profile WWW
October 12, 2011, 09:13:16 AM
 #11

BTC has fallen from 32 to 16 to 8 to 4 with a half-life of about 6 weeks. If this continues, we'll see $2 by the end of November, $1 by the end of January and $0.50 by March.




Awesome reference.

Grin

Preev – simple Bitcoin converter with live exchange rates
payb.tc
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 812



View Profile
October 12, 2011, 09:59:52 AM
 #12

BTC has fallen from 32 to 16 to 8 to 4 with a half-life of about 6 weeks. If this continues, we'll see $2 by the end of November, $1 by the end of January and $0.50 by March.

http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/extrapolating.png


Awesome reference.

Grin

thanks. i was also tempted to quote disco stu:

Quote
Did you know that disco record sales were up 400% for the year ending 1976? If these trends continue... AAY!


EuSouBitcoin
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 463


View Profile
October 12, 2011, 12:54:06 PM
 #13

After my original post, I received a friendly visit from 2 gentlemen that work or don't work at the NSA. I was a little confused about that part. They logically explained my errors in reasoning. I now see that on a long-term basis, BTC is on a parabolic rise from zero in Feb 2009. The short and intermediate trend don't matter. The long-term trend is what matters. Therefore, I'd like to officially change from a Bitcoin bear to a Bitcoin bull. I expect BTC to be $100 by November, $1,000 by January and $10,000 by March. The train is leaving the station. Woo-Woo! Don't get left behind. This time is different. It's a paradigm shift of historical proportions. Bitcoin is like Dianetics for money with Satoshi being L. Ron Hubbard. All we need is for someone to convert Tom Cruise.
72289
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 293


View Profile
October 12, 2011, 02:26:44 PM
 #14

After my original post, I received a friendly visit from 2 gentlemen that work or don't work at the NSA. I was a little confused about that part. They logically explained my errors in reasoning. I now see that on a long-term basis, BTC is on a parabolic rise from zero in Feb 2009. The short and intermediate trend don't matter. The long-term trend is what matters. Therefore, I'd like to officially change from a Bitcoin bear to a Bitcoin bull. I expect BTC to be $100 by November, $1,000 by January and $10,000 by March. The train is leaving the station. Woo-Woo! Don't get left behind. This time is different. It's a paradigm shift of historical proportions. Bitcoin is like Dianetics for money with Satoshi being L. Ron Hubbard. All we need is for someone to convert Tom Cruise.

Too late for Cruise, he went with the CosbyCoin.
netrin
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 322


FirstBits: 168Bc


View Profile
October 12, 2011, 03:04:54 PM
 #15

In an earlier thread I calculated that bitcoin depreciated at a nearly hyperinflationary 43% monthly rate (just shy of Cagan's 50% threshold) or 1.76% daily between 8 June and 8 September. That rate is decelerating and for the past month has been 'only' 33% depreciation or 1.35% daily (10% error as for example 11 September saw both $5 and $7).

The bottoming out of the five month parabola is obvious on the linear chart but less so on the log.


Phillip Cagan, The Monetary Dynamics of Hyperinflation, in Milton Friedman (Editor), Studies in the Quantity Theory of Money, Chicago: University of Chicago Press (1956).

Greenlandic tupilak. Hand carved, traditional cursed bone figures. Sorry, polar bear, walrus and human remains not available for export.
RodeoX
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2114


The revolution will be monetized!


View Profile
October 12, 2011, 03:24:53 PM
 #16

As a side note, I don't think bitcoin ever really reached $32. I know there were some legitimate sales at that price, but that was during a frenzy when scammers were offering high prices using paypal. Since they never intended to pay they could offer $30+.

 

The gospel according to Satoshi - https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf

Free bitcoin=https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1610684
Swishercutter
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 210


View Profile
October 12, 2011, 03:37:50 PM
 #17

As a side note, I don't think bitcoin ever really reached $32. I know there were some legitimate sales at that price, but that was during a frenzy when scammers were offering high prices using paypal. Since they never intended to pay they could offer $30+.

 

Mt.Gox had nothing to do with Paypal so your statement is false.  BTC sold on the exchanges for that price.
BadBear
v2.0
Administrator
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1652



View Profile WWW
October 12, 2011, 03:42:33 PM
 #18

As a side note, I don't think bitcoin ever really reached $32. I know there were some legitimate sales at that price, but that was during a frenzy when scammers were offering high prices using paypal. Since they never intended to pay they could offer $30+.

 

With less typing/clicking than you did in this post, you could have proven yourself wrong. 

1Kz25jm6pjNTaz8bFezEYUeBYfEtpjuKRG | PGP: B5797C4F

Tired of annoying signature ads? Ad block for signatures
gewure
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 364


[#][#][#]


View Profile
October 12, 2011, 04:29:34 PM
 #19

BTC has fallen from 32 to 16 to 8 to 4 with a half-life of about 6 weeks. If this continues, we'll see $2 by the end of November, $1 by the end of January and $0.50 by March.



RodeoX
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2114


The revolution will be monetized!


View Profile
October 12, 2011, 04:40:46 PM
 #20

As a side note, I don't think bitcoin ever really reached $32. I know there were some legitimate sales at that price, but that was during a frenzy when scammers were offering high prices using paypal. Since they never intended to pay they could offer $30+.

 

Mt.Gox had nothing to do with Paypal so your statement is false.  BTC sold on the exchanges for that price.
Well, I remember when it happened. I don't trade at Mt.Gox, so I don't know about that. Where I trade the price was only high for about 1 day, and most of the $30+ offers turned out to be paypal chargebacks.

The gospel according to Satoshi - https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf

Free bitcoin=https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1610684
Pages: [1] 2 »  All
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!