$3.20 is the new $3.68

[grod]

I know it's probably been priced in, but with the recent difficulty drop if your cost basis for mining a coin was $1.80 it is now less than $1.60.  From the pricing action on mtgox it sure looks like lots of people have just factored that into their decision of mine-and-hold vs pay for power and hardware.

[1714180899]

1714180899

[1714180899]

1714180899

[1714180899]

1714180899

[1714180899]

1714180899

[proudhon]

Sorry everyone, put a fork in it.  This thing is done.  A few months ago I said we wouldn't see $20 again in 2011.  More recently I said we wouldn't see $10 again in 2011.  I'm losing confidence that we'll sustain a price over $5 again in 2011, and with no compelling reason to hold bitcoins, and no compelling reasons apparent down the road, I think for all practical purposes this experiment will have run its course in 2012.  I can't remember what podcast it was, but somebody interviewed an economist about bitcoin and asked where he thought it'd be in 5 years and he quickly responded "Oh, it won't exist".  I believe him.  It's been fun.

[grod]

Pfft. Pessimist.  I can still extract a few more hundred $ out of this pyramid before it catches fire and implodes.   There are *PLENTY* of bulls left.

[panerai]

Sad to admit, but BTC is not going anywhere while Silk Road is running. Too much money there to just let it go.

[Cluster2k]

I don't know what the price of bitcoins will be by 2012, but I do know one thing:  there will be no shortage people who have invested large sums of money on the way down, trying to talk it back up. 

'Thank you for selling your bitcoins to me, I'm feasting on your panic and buying up!'

'The bears are just trying to talk it down so they can buy it cheaply!'

'New uses for bitcoins are just around the corner.  It will boom very soon'

[Serge]

If you don't believe in usefulness of this technology, what are you doing here? Oh, I forgot, it's speculation forum, sorry, carry on .

[Cluster2k]

If you don't believe in usefulness of this technology, what are you doing here? Oh, I forgot, it's speculation forum, sorry, carry on .

It's useful, just not as an investment vehicle.  If only people who loved bitcoin and were heavily invested in it were interested in participating in the forums, the forums would quickly descend into groupthink.  I don't think anyone wants to see a cult of bitcoin.

[Technomage]

If you don't believe in usefulness of this technology, what are you doing here? Oh, I forgot, it's speculation forum, sorry, carry on .

+1

I'm finding I spend too much time on the speculation forum. My thoughts on Bitcoin is that it will really rocket next year. This thought has not much to do with price speculation other than the long term being very positive. For the mid term we might still see the price going down which is supported by the fact that the transaction count is still declining from the peak (new low a few days ago).

The development of the real economy is slow, mostly because it takes time to plan and start companies. Some people have been really quick in my opinion and that's why we've already seen steady merchant growth and a lot of new btc/usd trading sites in a very short period of time.

Fact is a lot of companies haven't started yet and are just going to be starting soon. I for one am in the process of starting my own BTC-related company (it's going to be a merchant service similar to bit-pay, community site provider, web of trust provider, Bitcoin-merchandise seller etc. and it'll be mostly for the Finnish market, but also for global markets as an online merchant service).

I'm currently aiming to start the company in January or February, these things take time. I'm quite sure a lot of other enthusiasts are in a similar position. If Bitcoin is to really succeed it'll happen in 2012. The most potential markets are porn and sex toy merchants and all gambling. Just need a few big merchants to start accepting it and then it'll spread really fast. Also any type of micropayments are a massive market for Bitcoin.

I will make a bigger post about this in the general forum later. I'm starting to feel this forum is more and more useless.

[Technomage]

I am not so sure about that, as long as the technology continues to function.

Rather, I think we will see a more-or-less complete changing of hands... From those who abandoned Bitcoin for one purpose, to those who adopt it for another...

+10

[N12]

What about that?

It's important to note the difference between a stable price and an unstable one. For example, I have stated that if the price stays below $5 for a significant period of time, which is at least a week, it's a sign of the long-term switching to "neutral". A price below $4 for more than a week, then I'd say down. Price below $4 for a month would mean abandon ship.

This is how I've seen it for the past weeks and so far none of those scenarios have happened so the long-term is clearly up. Instead of new lows we've actually had a couple of rallies which is a sign that we are getting closer to a bigger break-out.

[S3052]

Thats how I see it as well...
+1 to Blitzboom

[grod]

There's no doubt in my mind bitcoin will have another 300% rally, possibly this year.  Just not from $3.  As pointed out, the technology has potential to be quite useful.

But that has nothing to do with price levels 75% of the current bitcoin ecosystem invested at.  We're still very much in the "denial" phase of post-bubble deflation.  I'm still bullish about current bitcoin prospects, just not at prices current bulls are willing to pay.

[Technomage]

What about that?

I don't actually see it like that anymore. There is the theory that a total price crash and long term trend collapse could actually hurt Bitcoin enough to "kill it" but I don't see it that way. It will kill it as an investment vehicle for the time being at least, but that's not the end of Bitcoin. Bitcoin works regardless of the price. Actual trade and usage as a store of value will bring it up regardless of the investment value.

The price will be held above a certain level because of actual usage and I don't know what this level is exactly, but my common sense and looking at the number of actual merchants says that it has to be above $1, actually I think it's safe to say there's at least 10 million dollars worth of activity in the economy so the price is going to be a good amount above $1, at least.

But now we're at $3.9, there is actually quite a bit of room for the price to drop. If we speculate and say the actual value the economy can currently hold from real usage is around $1.5 - $2, then the price can still drop 50%. I think this is very much possible and that will not kill Bitcoin. There is one problem this does cause, which is a much less powerful mining network. Will it be too small to be secure enough? I hope the answer is no, but I don't know.

[Bigpiggy01]

The price will be held above a certain level because of actual usage and I don't know what this level is exactly, but my common sense and looking at the number of actual merchants says that it has to be above $1, actually I think it's safe to say there's at least 10 million dollars worth of activity in the economy so the price is going to be a good amount above $1, at least.

This might brighten your view slightly 

http://baltic-review.com/2011/10/alternative-currency-coming-to-stores-near-you/

[grod]

But now we're at $3.9, there is actually quite a bit of room for the price to drop. If we speculate and say the actual value the economy can currently hold from real usage is around $1.5 - $2, then the price can still drop 50%. I think this is very much possible and that will not kill Bitcoin. There is one problem this does cause, which is a much less powerful mining network. Will it be too small to be secure enough? I hope the answer is no, but I don't know.

Now you see the light.  If bitcoin is trading significantly under average production cost long enough then miners WILL shut down.  Eventually.  They may even sell their existing stash out of disgust and psychological need to distance themselves from being wrong, pushing the prices even lower than they "should" be assuming rational actors.  Remember the lower the hash rate the longer difficulty takes to adjust down, and less feasible it is to mine at current as opposed to expected future difficulty.  If everyone flees at once bitcoin becomes more vulnerable to 51% attacks while transaction rate becomes stupid slow, decreasing the overall value of the network and driving the spiral further down.

Right now it'll take somewhere between 500k and 2 million dollars to destroy the bitcoin ecosystem.  If that drops to 50-200k the goal will be within reach of quite a few traders.  The question will become "Is there enough money left in bitcoin to attack it?" as opposed to "Is it feasible to attack bitcoin?"

[Technomage]

There's no doubt in my mind bitcoin will have another 300% rally, possibly this year.  Just not from $3.  As pointed out, the technology has potential to be quite useful.

But that has nothing to do with price levels 75% of the current bitcoin ecosystem invested at.  We're still very much in the "denial" phase of post-bubble deflation.  I'm still bullish about current bitcoin prospects, just not at prices current bulls are willing to pay.

I have to say that I agree 100%. I currently see a crash and further decline as more likely than a recovery. The scenario of a 6-12 month recovery is for me the most likely outcome. This is something S3052 mentioned as well, as a possibility.

Within a year we will see Bitcoin adoption rise again significantly because then it can actually be used in more ways. The hype bubble burst and there will not be another one until Bitcoin can actually deliver. We need news on real developments.

On a positive note I must say that these developments can happen very fast. All it needs are more merchants accepting Bitcoin. And I don't mean new merchants that only accept Bitcoin, what it needs is known merchants adding Bitcoin as a payment option. Once one or two companies in the same market do this, all the competitors will be interested and might add Bitcoin as well. Then it'll explode, at least in the markets where consumers find it useful.

[Technomage]

This might brighten your view slightly  

http://baltic-review.com/2011/10/alternative-currency-coming-to-stores-near-you/

My view is that Bitcoin will have a very bright future as long as the network is secure and it stays legal. But my view on the short and mid term price development is not very bright, actually it's getting more dim every day. And when people like me start to think a recovery is unlikely at this point, then I just wonder what will happen to the price...

[pennytrader]

Tired of the discussion of "bears" & "bulls". I don't think there's any so called "bears". There're only "insiders" who mine the coins and sell them to "believers" who believe this thing is going to rock.

[Edward50]

Like I have been saying all along the problem with bitcoins are that there is just not enough money it it to support all these miners who want to make cash for just running their video cards.

I used to deal in antiques and I see bitcoins in a similar way. There is pratically no use for antiques or bitcions. People just hold them for value. When too many of either antiques or bitcoins hit the markets, the price drops hugely. Everybody has bitcoins, can't do anything with them. Scarcity is the only thing to bring up value, but guess what, thousands of new bitcoins are mined every single day. With antiques, maybe 1 or 2 of the only product are worth 10,000, you bring 10 to the market, that price just dropped to $500.

The market is so tiny for people who will actually pay cash for these useless coins.

What the market really needs is a stable bitcoin, maybe tied into the cost of living. This way it will have some practical use as you could store your money into it without the wild price swings.

[tvbcof]

Sorry everyone, put a fork in it.  This thing is done.  A few months ago I said we wouldn't see $20 again in 2011.  More recently I said we wouldn't see $10 again in 2011.  I'm losing confidence that we'll sustain a price over $5 again in 2011, and with no compelling reason to hold bitcoins, and no compelling reasons apparent down the road, I think for all practical purposes this experiment will have run its course in 2012.  I can't remember what podcast it was, but somebody interviewed an economist about bitcoin and asked where he thought it'd be in 5 years and he quickly responded "Oh, it won't exist".  I believe him.  It's been fun.

I am not so sure about that, as long as the technology continues to function.

Rather, I think we will see a more-or-less complete changing of hands... From those who abandoned Bitcoin for one purpose, to those who adopt it for another...

I suspect as much.  It's a big world, and Bitcoin has certain usefulness regardless of the price as long as the exchanges remain viable (which is, to me, a big question mark.)  Bitcoin is great for funding out-of-favor efforts which mainstream financial institutions have cut off (like efforts to change the financial institutions, for instance.)  It also seems to me that it has some usefulness to 'ratchet in' a large trades between non-trusting parties though I'm not aware of that being done in a systematic way.  And, of course, good old fashioned money laundering could be helped by some of Bitcoin's properties.

I expect that these uses will eventually set a floor on the BTC price, and if such use grows (faster than inflation), so to will the floor.  The rapid re-cycle would put that floor pretty low, though.

Although I keep a position in cold storage on the long-shot bet that a disruption of some sort will cause a spike, and some slightly more complex but wholesome longer-shot hopes as well, I've kissed goodbye the actual USD's I've put in as well as the remainder that I have earmarked for BTC purchase when the price falls some more.

I do tend to snap up some BTC on the exchanges when I want to donate right away to some effort.

[Bitcoin Oz]

The thing that killed bitcoin is this shitty forum.

That and having a mortgage fraudster as official spokesperson.

No legitimate company will touch bitcoin with a 50 foot barge pole.

[Nagle]

It will be over when Mt. Gox and Tradehill give up, or go bust.

[Gabi]

The thing that killed bitcoin is this shitty forum.

That and having a mortgage fraudster as official spokesperson.

No legitimate company will touch bitcoin with a 50 foot barge pole.

That was enough to kill bitcoin? Then bitcoin wasn't such a great thing

[tvbcof]

It will be over when Mt. Gox and Tradehill give up, or go bust.

I would not worry to much about either of those.  They should be fairly simple and low-cost to operate, at least when the initial development is worked through.  I would be more concerned about them being shut down.

I have always assumed that the larger exchanges work closely with the various financial and governmental agencies to do monitoring and such and have done so since early into their lives.  I may be wrong, but I'd rather err on the side of caution...or would if it mattered very much in my case.  If these larger exchanges were shut down they would be replaced by players who are much more difficult to manage.  So I expect that they will have relatively good staying power.

[P4man]

It will be over when Mt. Gox and Tradehill give up, or go bust.

Quite on the contrary. If they shut down, people will search for ways to spend their bitcoins, you know, trade and buy stuff with them,  and I suspect it would spur a real bitcoin economy. Imagine miners would no longer be able to cash their bitcoins for dollars, I think that would do wonders for bitcoin.

[druid]

No legitimate company will touch bitcoin with a 50 foot barge pole.

what is legitimate company and why do we need one? please explain

It will be over when Mt. Gox and Tradehill give up, or go bust.

Twice as much damage would cause if SR go bust...

[phelix]

[...]
I do tend to snap up some BTC on the exchanges when I want to donate right away to some effort.

because exchanging is so simple and cheap nobody needs to hold coins to use them....

[proudhon]

I do tend to snap up some BTC on the exchanges when I want to donate right away to some effort.

That's nice and all, but there's a pretty big price to pay just to not use more conventional means to make donations.  If I use $100 today to buy bitcoins and send them off to some charity there's a pretty good chance that by the time they convert the donation back to cash they'll have $90/$80/$70/$60/$50 to spend.  That's a pretty shitty deal.

[tvbcof]

I do tend to snap up some BTC on the exchanges when I want to donate right away to some effort.

That's nice and all, but there's a pretty big price to pay just to not use more conventional means to make donations.  If I use $100 today to buy bitcoins and send them off to some charity there's a pretty good chance that by the time they convert the donation back to cash they'll have $90/$80/$70/$60/$50 to spend.  That's a pretty shitty deal.

'More convential means' are not available when our minders take a dis-liking to a certain project (e.g., Wikileaks), and even in strong secular bear market one loses very little other than exchange fees, and nearly half the time they may still come out marginally ahead.

Your FUD might be more effective if you:  a) pay a little more attention to the thread, and b) make more valid points generally.

[proudhon]

I do tend to snap up some BTC on the exchanges when I want to donate right away to some effort.

That's nice and all, but there's a pretty big price to pay just to not use more conventional means to make donations.  If I use $100 today to buy bitcoins and send them off to some charity there's a pretty good chance that by the time they convert the donation back to cash they'll have $90/$80/$70/$60/$50 to spend.  That's a pretty shitty deal.

'More convential means' are not available when our minders take a dis-liking to a certain project (e.g., Wikileaks), and even in strong secular bear market one loses very little other than exchange fees, and nearly half the time they may still come out marginally ahead.

Your FUD might be more effective if you:  a) pay a little more attention to the thread, and b) make more valid points generally.

I don't see how my point isn't valid.  For there to be reasonable chance for purchasing power to hold between when you buy bitcoins and when your charity cashes them out to pay for things two things would need to hold: (1) the transaction would need to happen very quickly, and (2) the volume would need to be relatively small.

For the vast majority of people interested in making donations via bitcoin the whole process of buying them, sending them off to the charity, and the charity cashing them out isn't going be fluid enough to mitigate the very high chance that the money taken out in the end will be significantly less than what was put in.  I don't think you need to look any further than the last 4 months to see that the odds are against retaining the original purchasing power.  Some savvy people who are quick on the draw or lucky or both might be able to retain the original purchasing power or even increase the final purchasing power of their donation, but there are too many variables against that coming out true for the vast majority of cases.

I get that for a very small number of cases bitcoin is the only way transfer purchasing power.  Sadly, as I've pointed out, compared to conventional means of donating there's a fairly high premium to make that donation.  Make it if you want to.  I'm just saying that odds are that a lot of purchasing power is going to get lost along the way.

My intention isn't to spread FUD.  I'm just calling it as I see it.

[tvbcof]

I don't see how my point isn't valid.  For there to be reasonable chance for purchasing power to hold between when you buy bitcoins and when your charity cashes them out to pay for things two things would need to hold: (1) the transaction would need to happen very quickly, and (2) the volume would need to be relatively small.

For the vast majority of people interested in making donations via bitcoin the whole process of buying them, sending them off to the charity, and the charity cashing them out isn't going be fluid enough to mitigate the very high chance that the money taken out in the end will be significantly less than what was put in.  I don't think you need to look any further than the last 4 months to see that the odds are against retaining the original purchasing power.  Some savvy people who are quick on the draw or lucky or both might be able to retain the original purchasing power or even increase the final purchasing power of their donation, but there are too many variables against that coming out true for the vast majority of cases.

I get that for a very small number of cases bitcoin is the only way transfer purchasing power.  Sadly, as I've pointed out, compared to conventional means of donating there's a fairly high premium to make that donation.  Make it if you want to.  I'm just saying that odds are that a lot of purchasing power is going to get lost along the way.

My intention isn't to spread FUD.  I'm just calling it as I see it.

I will grant you that for someone starting 'cold' it is not very practical to use Bitcoin as a means of making donations (though a reasonably savvy person, and especially one who was not opposed to using a Dwolla/Paxum-like solution or already had such an account could do it readily.)  But you responded to someone who clearly already had an account at and exchange and could easily convert at will and could hold funds in USD or in BTC at his discretion.

I will also grant you that holding an account at an exchange is not the safest thing to do, and not for everyone.  So far I have not been burnt here, but I am careful in initial research and in ongoing use.

But the argument that significant losses are even likely occur due to the falling price is non-valid.  If the recipient is not cashing out quickly, that is their problem and not a difficult one to solve.  With code if need be, and that would make more sense when smaller donations are trickling in.

It would be nice it one did not need to be somewhat nimble to avoid losing value in playing with Bitcoin, that that is the current shape of things.  As I've said earlier, I expect that at some point a floor will set in based on what usefulness Bitcoin has and how nimble what remains of the user base becomes.  The floor may have a tilt one way or another due to utilization and inflation.  And like any market, will have some amount of volatility.

[proudhon]

In any event, hope nobody bought bitcoins to make a donation within the last hour...

[pennytrader]

I saw another "buying opportunity" for long-term bulls (or bagholders)...

[tvbcof]

I saw another "buying opportunity" for long-term bulls (or bagholders)...

I've had a buy in at 3.23 for some time now.  I'm going to let it stand.  I am still trying to get my 'bag' up to a certain nice round number which makes the math easier (having overshot my original bag size in this bear market.)

[tvbcof]

In any event, hope nobody bought bitcoins to make a donation within the last hour...

Happily no.  But I also missed the run-up from $5 to $7 a few weeks ago.

It's perhaps conceptually difficult for people, but as the speed of transactions increases, the average impact in a bear (or bull) market approaches zero.  And Bitcoin retains some niceties in terms of speed and cost of execution.

[Cluster2k]

The thing that killed bitcoin is this shitty forum.

That and having a mortgage fraudster as official spokesperson.

No legitimate company will touch bitcoin with a 50 foot barge pole.

The only thing that has died is a mis-perception of what Bitcoin is and what it means.

It is the people's money, not some bourgeoisie stand-in for the Dollar...

Bitcoin sure is the people's money.  The people who got into mining early on cents per bitcoin.  We're replacing one aristocracy with another.

[grod]

Wanna get in on another pyramid?  RUC just started up ( see the thread in the alt cryptocurrencies ).  So far I'm batting 1000 hopping on every alternative currency early, trading for BTC early and cashing out to $ early.  Granted, this one is already 6000 blocks into existing and the exchange is up before a client is available but there is already more hashing power on that network than some of the 'top 10' BTC pools.

That's the unforseen danger to bitcoin.  75% of us got in at the bottom of the pyramid and have zero vested interest in making the "early adopters" multi-gajillionares.  If a more lucrative opportunity comes along we stop providing security for the current chain and hop on that one.  It won't take millions of dollars to torpedo bitcoin, a few hundred K providing a market for one of the alts will have enough mining power switch to make a 51% possible.  Especially if BTC prices are already soft.

[tvbcof]

I saw another "buying opportunity" for long-term bulls (or bagholders)...

I've had a buy in at 3.23 for some time now.  I'm going to let it stand.  I am still trying to get my 'bag' up to a certain nice round number which makes the math easier (having overshot my original bag size in this bear market.)

Just for the record, I pussied out.  I split the aforementioned target and bought half of it in right away.  My larger and lower ones stand unmolested.

[grod]

Just for the record, I pussied out.  I split the aforementioned target and bought half of it in right away.  My larger and lower ones stand unmolested.

Dead cat bounce on tue/wed should make you a few coins to offset your higher losses.  Ball of steel man, balls of steel.  But not a bad move so long as you intend to close at least some of that position.

[tvbcof]

Just for the record, I pussied out.  I split the aforementioned target and bought half of it in right away.  My larger and lower ones stand unmolested.

Dead cat bounce on tue/wed should make you a few coins to offset your higher losses.  Ball of steel man, balls of steel.  But not a bad move so long as you intend to close at least some of that position.

Nah.  I kissed the money goodbye already.  I started in in the $16 range (on the way down) so my losses are way more significant than I could hope to recoup by winning a few coins here and there.  At this point it's a long term (and long odds) bet that over time the blockchain will end up having some value, and if so, I will have gotten a chunk of it before it while it is lawful to do so.

[grod]

Nah.  I kissed the money goodbye already.  I started in in the $16 range (on the way down) so my losses are way more significant than I could hope to recoup by winning a few coins here and there.  At this point it's a long term (and long odds) bet that over time the blockchain will end up having some value, and if so, I will have gotten a chunk of it before it while it is lawful to do so.

This makes no sense.  Dumping and buying lower can absolutely dig you out of that hole.  Don't do the entire position at once, of course.  If you kissed the money goodbye this could be your opportunity to learn to trade on the cheap.  At the very least it might give you the instincts to avoid doing the same in the future, with amounts of money that matter.

If you buy at 16, sell at 3 and buy back in at 1 you'll have 3x as many coins playing the long odds.  I'm not saying that WILL happen, but why not trade a portion of your position?

[tvbcof]

Nah.  I kissed the money goodbye already.  I started in in the $16 range (on the way down) so my losses are way more significant than I could hope to recoup by winning a few coins here and there.  At this point it's a long term (and long odds) bet that over time the blockchain will end up having some value, and if so, I will have gotten a chunk of it before it while it is lawful to do so.

This makes no sense.  Dumping and buying lower can absolutely dig you out of that hole.  Don't do the entire position at once, of course.  If you kissed the money goodbye this could be your opportunity to learn to trade on the cheap.  At the very least it might give you the instincts to avoid doing the same in the future, with amounts of money that matter.

If you buy at 16, sell at 3 and buy back in at 1 you'll have 3x as many coins playing the long odds.  I'm not saying that WILL happen, but why not trade a portion of your position?

I am no trader.  I am quite certain that I would lose my ass so fast that it wouldn't be funny if I got into trading, and it would irk me to be paying the commissions to boot.  I don't particularly want to learn to trade even if it were possible that I could (unless I got into trying to program trading bots for the fun and challenge of it.)  I've had generally good luck and a lot less stress just buying something I think is undervalued and sitting on it, but by nature I tend to look at least several years out.

[ineededausername]

Nah.  I kissed the money goodbye already.  I started in in the $16 range (on the way down) so my losses are way more significant than I could hope to recoup by winning a few coins here and there.  At this point it's a long term (and long odds) bet that over time the blockchain will end up having some value, and if so, I will have gotten a chunk of it before it while it is lawful to do so.

This makes no sense.  Dumping and buying lower can absolutely dig you out of that hole.  Don't do the entire position at once, of course.  If you kissed the money goodbye this could be your opportunity to learn to trade on the cheap.  At the very least it might give you the instincts to avoid doing the same in the future, with amounts of money that matter.

If you buy at 16, sell at 3 and buy back in at 1 you'll have 3x as many coins playing the long odds.  I'm not saying that WILL happen, but why not trade a portion of your position?

I am no trader.  I am quite certain that I would lose my ass so fast that it wouldn't be funny if I got into trading, and it would irk me to be paying the commissions to boot.  I don't particularly want to learn to trade even if it were possible that I could (unless I got into trying to program trading bots for the fun and challenge of it.)  I've had generally good luck and a lot less stress just buying something I think is undervalued and sitting on it, but by nature I tend to look at least several years out.

Well, programming trading bots is very fun, so you could do that.  Also why wouldn't you care about your investment into bitcoin?  I'd try to protect it if it were a big one.  You won't lose too much of your ass if you are careful with stop losses.

[tvbcof]

Well, programming trading bots is very fun, so you could do that.  Also why wouldn't you care about your investment into bitcoin?  I'd try to protect it if it were a big one.  You won't lose too much of your ass if you are careful with stop losses.

Actually I was just looking into FPGA mining with an eye toward protecting my investment, and it seems like an interesting science worth knowing something about one way or another.  My instinct had been to hold off to see what popped up in the ASIC realm, but the deterioration of the markets must have slowed any progress in that direction considerably.

[Cluster2k]

Massive dump of bitcoins to $3.12 and a weak rebound to $3.20.  Is this it?  Are early adopters who didn't sell off months ago, now in sell off mode?  No recently announced hacks, no bad news, so it seems someone with a lot of bitcoins is exiting the market.

[grod]

Not early adopterS, early adopter.  Only one can cash out, the others must hold the bag until the recovery many months later.  One teen with 50k coins can take us to parity with the dollar.  Oh, and rebuild his position on coins afterward, too.

Oh, closure of the #3? #4? btc exchange counts as bad news.  They couldn't function on tiny $/day volume.

[Cluster2k]

Not early adopterS, early adopter.  Only one can cash out, the others must hold the bag until the recovery many months later.  One teen with 50k coins can take us to parity with the dollar.  Oh, and rebuild his position on coins afterward, too.

Oh, closure of the #3? #4? btc exchange counts as bad news.  They couldn't function on tiny $/day volume.

MtGox has 90% of the market anyway, with TradeHill making up most of the rest.  I don't really see an exchange with maybe 1% market share closing as being particularly bad news.

The last acknowledged exchange hack was several weeks ago of a minor exchange.  A few thousand bitcoins at most. 

If MtGox has financial problems then we can stick a fork into bitcoin and declare it done.  Without MtGox people would have extreme difficulty in converting their bitcoins into cash (and vice versa), and the price would collapse to cents per bitcoin overnight.

[neofutur]

Massive dump of bitcoins to $3.12 and a weak rebound to $3.20.  Is this it?  Are early adopters who didn't sell off months ago, now in sell off mode?  No recently announced hacks, no bad news, so it seems someone with a lot of bitcoins is exiting the market.

no bad news . . . more or less . . .

 just today exchb announced they are closing , exchb was one of the 3 most important exchanges and one of the most trusted . . . not exactly a good news . . . add to this all the FUD posted on this forum against mtgox . . .

[grod]

Title changed to remain relevant.

[Cluster2k]

Time to change the title again 

[tvbcof]

Time to change the title again 

Tradehill actually broke the $3.00 barrier briefly.  I went ahead and filled my 'round number' quota just so I didn't have to worry about it and could do my deep storage work.  Time will tell if I'm happy that I kept some powder dry this weekend or no I guess.  Anyway, bed time.

[proudhon]

Nah.  I kissed the money goodbye already.  I started in in the $16 range (on the way down) so my losses are way more significant than I could hope to recoup by winning a few coins here and there.  At this point it's a long term (and long odds) bet that over time the blockchain will end up having some value, and if so, I will have gotten a chunk of it before it while it is lawful to do so.

This makes no sense.  Dumping and buying lower can absolutely dig you out of that hole.  Don't do the entire position at once, of course.  If you kissed the money goodbye this could be your opportunity to learn to trade on the cheap.  At the very least it might give you the instincts to avoid doing the same in the future, with amounts of money that matter.

If you buy at 16, sell at 3 and buy back in at 1 you'll have 3x as many coins playing the long odds.  I'm not saying that WILL happen, but why not trade a portion of your position?

I'm convinced that the widespread adoption of that strategy is a large part of why the price has collapsed and will continue to do so.

[mobodick]

Can i safely assume we are in the 'paradigm shift' phase of the bubble disillusion graph?

Here's a new paradigm for the comming time.
BC < BC

[Revalin]

Can i safely assume we are in the 'paradigm shift' phase of the bubble disillusion graph?

For those not familiar with it:



We're currently at Capitulation.  I speculate wildly that Despair starts somewhere under $0.50, but anyone who calls a bottom with any kind of authority at this stage will likely eat their words.

($3.80 / $3.20 / $whatever) is the new ($whatever)

Heh, I've heard that one all the way down, but usually it lasts at least a few days.

[mobodick]

Can i safely assume we are in the 'paradigm shift' phase of the bubble disillusion graph?

For those not familiar with it:



We're currently at Capitulation.  I speculate wildly that Despair starts somewhere under $0.50, but anyone who calls a bottom with any kind of authority at this stage will likely eat their words.

Damn, i missed Fear.
Now waiting for Despair.

[pekv2]

2.78 atm.

[Revalin]

Damn, i missed Fear.

Damn, I missed the knife. 

... but there will always be another.

[dark_silverstar]

going down to 2.34 

[Revalin]

LOL that was so two hours ago. 

[BubbleBoy]

going down to 2.34 

I can spot a 2.36 in the MtGox log. Meet you at 50c

{"date":1318845188,"price":"2.36002","amount":"0.07","price_int":"236002","amount_int":"7000000",
"tid":"1318845188497759","price_currency":"USD","item":"BTC","trade_type":"ask"},