megalinux (OP)
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August 10, 2018, 09:57:27 AM |
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I am developing a project to research the future value of Bitcoin with artificial intelligence algorithms. The project is experimental and you can see a preview in twitter at the following address: https://twitter.com/themysignal. What do you think? The algorithm will be optimized ... The project is now free, in the future it will be the basis of a company. Currently I am looking for resources that are able to participate in the project. Anyone interested? |
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KingScorpio
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August 10, 2018, 10:10:15 AM |
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I am developing a project to research the future value of Bitcoin with artificial intelligence algorithms. The project is experimental and you can see a preview in twitter at the following address: https://twitter.com/themysignal. What do you think? The algorithm will be optimized ... The project is now free, in the future it will be the basis of a company. Currently I am looking for resources that are able to participate in the project. Anyone interested? these are assumption based on 1. limited information 2. based on a made up own forumla both are factors that make it invalid. you cant prognose bitcoins worldwide acceptance in the world market as you neither can do that for the us dollar regards |
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megalinux (OP)
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August 10, 2018, 10:24:46 AM |
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In fact, I have highlighted how the project is an experiment. However, machine learning algorithms can help in short-term trading decisions due to the ability to analyze large amounts of data in fractional seconds. In the long term it is obvious that this can not happen.
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KingScorpio
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August 10, 2018, 10:30:56 AM
Last edit: August 10, 2018, 10:42:53 AM by KingScorpio |
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In fact, I have highlighted how the project is an experiment. However, machine learning algorithms can help in short-term trading decisions due to the ability to analyze large amounts of data in fractional seconds. In the long term it is obvious that this can not happen.
the market isnt systematic or periodic, like natural life and death cycles....., bird winter refuge routes, or salmon breeding return wanderings it cant be described with algortihms... there are trends, fashions that are temporarily. |
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Rahar02
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August 10, 2018, 10:43:16 AM
Last edit: August 10, 2018, 11:07:57 AM by Rahar02 |
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Artificial intelligence algorithms? interesting.
have checked the twitter cryptosignal and it's quite confusing, how does it always changing to predict bitcoin price within a day?
Ahh, got it. seems the prediction always recalculate after 2 hours, assume it pretty accurate then.
what kind of artificial algorithms did you write to ensure it will calculate and analyze correctly?
and based on what kind of information? whether any good news or bad news will make any difference?
or maybe trading volume on some big exchanges will affect the calculation?
One more thing, we have dozens of exchanges out there, thus the price of bitcoin slightly different, which exchange or platform as your reference?
Bitcoin price on coinmarketcap right now is $6409, on preev is $6355, on coinbase is 6352, OKCoin is $6455, meanwhile on local exchange in my country is $6545.
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megalinux (OP)
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August 10, 2018, 10:48:11 AM |
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In fact, I have highlighted how the project is an experiment. However, machine learning algorithms can help in short-term trading decisions due to the ability to analyze large amounts of data in fractional seconds. In the long term it is obvious that this can not happen.
the market isnt systematic or periodic, like natural life and death cycles....., bird winter refuge routes, or salmon breeding return wanderings it cant be described with algortihms... there are trends, fashions that are temporarily. Yes, in principle I agree with you, but I would like to try. The project as I pointed out is experimental. It's in an embryonic phase, and right now I'm analyzing the results. The goal is to understand how accurate the proposed value can be. |
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KingScorpio
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August 10, 2018, 10:52:40 AM |
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In fact, I have highlighted how the project is an experiment. However, machine learning algorithms can help in short-term trading decisions due to the ability to analyze large amounts of data in fractional seconds. In the long term it is obvious that this can not happen.
the market isnt systematic or periodic, like natural life and death cycles....., bird winter refuge routes, or salmon breeding return wanderings it cant be described with algortihms... there are trends, fashions that are temporarily. Yes, in principle I agree with you, but I would like to try. The project as I pointed out is experimental. It's in an embryonic phase, and right now I'm analyzing the results. The goal is to understand how accurate the proposed value can be. i think coding an interexchange arbitrage bot is more secure, and more successful than trying to prognose bitcoin but there are many doing that already |
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Wesellfiles
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August 10, 2018, 11:30:32 AM |
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In fact, I have highlighted how the project is an experiment. However, machine learning algorithms can help in short-term trading decisions due to the ability to analyze large amounts of data in fractional seconds. In the long term it is obvious that this can not happen.
the market isnt systematic or periodic, like natural life and death cycles....., bird winter refuge routes, or salmon breeding return wanderings it cant be described with algortihms... there are trends, fashions that are temporarily. Yes, in principle I agree with you, but I would like to try. The project as I pointed out is experimental. It's in an embryonic phase, and right now I'm analyzing the results. The goal is to understand how accurate the proposed value can be. i think coding an interexchange arbitrage bot is more secure, and more successful than trying to prognose bitcoin but there are many doing that already I've done both - I've built an arbitrage bot and an AI that finds trading patterns (genetic approach). The arbitrage bot isn't efficient because the markets are moving so fast that you don't get the prices that you want - even if your sever is directly connected to the exchange server. It doesn't matter how fast your algorithm is - it's physically impossible (talking about bitfinex). You can maybe earn something on slower markets but it's less lucrative and it takes a lot of work to do and event after that it isn't guarateed to work. It can also be that you have calculated that you will earn a lot of money but after a few months, when the project is finished it's 1/10 of that because numbers like trading volume have changed significantly. What, maybe, could work are HFT strategies implementing a mix of insurance Mathematics and Ergodic theory which is a bit like trying to beat roulette at the casino but this takes a LOT of work and time. Cross exchange arbitrage can end up being a huge problem because sometimes coins are locked for deposit and withdrawal and then people will pump them usually. Unexpected exchange behaviour in general is a problem. And I haven't even started to talk about all the numbers like fake volume that a lot of exchanges are displaying (like 95% fake volume). The AI is funny - the more complex your trading strategy becomes, based on the data you feed the bot with, the less it will work in the future. It's because you have the too opposites "General Rule" vs "Specific rule". The more specific a rule is the less it will work in general and the more general a rule is the less it will work in a specific case. So what the Bot wants to find is a (relativly) simple, general rule. A rule like that does not exist. By saying "does not exist" I mean that there is no simple, general rule that would have made you more money than just buying and holding bitcoin (if you analyze all bitcoin trading data on Bitstamp from 2015 until now) |
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KingScorpio
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August 10, 2018, 12:15:25 PM |
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In fact, I have highlighted how the project is an experiment. However, machine learning algorithms can help in short-term trading decisions due to the ability to analyze large amounts of data in fractional seconds. In the long term it is obvious that this can not happen.
the market isnt systematic or periodic, like natural life and death cycles....., bird winter refuge routes, or salmon breeding return wanderings it cant be described with algortihms... there are trends, fashions that are temporarily. Yes, in principle I agree with you, but I would like to try. The project as I pointed out is experimental. It's in an embryonic phase, and right now I'm analyzing the results. The goal is to understand how accurate the proposed value can be. i think coding an interexchange arbitrage bot is more secure, and more successful than trying to prognose bitcoin but there are many doing that already I've done both - I've built an arbitrage bot and an AI that finds trading patterns (genetic approach). The arbitrage bot isn't efficient because the markets are moving so fast that you don't get the prices that you want - even if your sever is directly connected to the exchange server. It doesn't matter how fast your algorithm is - it's physically impossible (talking about bitfinex). You can maybe earn something on slower markets but it's less lucrative and it takes a lot of work to do and event after that it isn't guarateed to work. It can also be that you have calculated that you will earn a lot of money but after a few months, when the project is finished it's 1/10 of that because numbers like trading volume have changed significantly. What, maybe, could work are HFT strategies implementing a mix of insurance Mathematics and Ergodic theory which is a bit like trying to beat roulette at the casino but this takes a LOT of work and time. Cross exchange arbitrage can end up being a huge problem because sometimes coins are locked for deposit and withdrawal and then people will pump them usually. Unexpected exchange behaviour in general is a problem. And I haven't even started to talk about all the numbers like fake volume that a lot of exchanges are displaying (like 95% fake volume). The AI is funny - the more complex your trading strategy becomes, based on the data you feed the bot with, the less it will work in the future. It's because you have the too opposites "General Rule" vs "Specific rule". The more specific a rule is the less it will work in general and the more general a rule is the less it will work in a specific case. So what the Bot wants to find is a (relativly) simple, general rule. A rule like that does not exist. By saying "does not exist" I mean that there is no simple, general rule that would have made you more money than just buying and holding bitcoin (if you analyze all bitcoin trading data on Bitstamp from 2015 until now) interesting arbitrage seems to have lost its appealing i can remember doing 10% profit with that per day |
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megalinux (OP)
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August 10, 2018, 12:37:37 PM |
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Artificial intelligence algorithms? interesting.
have checked the twitter cryptosignal and it's quite confusing, how does it always changing to predict bitcoin price within a day?
Ahh, got it. seems the prediction always recalculate after 2 hours, assume it pretty accurate then.
what kind of artificial algorithms did you write to ensure it will calculate and analyze correctly?
and based on what kind of information? whether any good news or bad news will make any difference?
or maybe trading volume on some big exchanges will affect the calculation?
One more thing, we have dozens of exchanges out there, thus the price of bitcoin slightly different, which exchange or platform as your reference?
Bitcoin price on coinmarketcap right now is $6409, on preev is $6355, on coinbase is 6352, OKCoin is $6455, meanwhile on local exchange in my country is $6545.
The algorithm analyzes historical bitcoin data and use K nearest neighbours algorithm to make a prediction (very simple...for now is experimental project). I use the Bitcoin historical API powered by CoinDesk to collect the data. In the future, I would to add a sentiment analysis to this value. |
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megalinux (OP)
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August 10, 2018, 12:40:48 PM |
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In fact, I have highlighted how the project is an experiment. However, machine learning algorithms can help in short-term trading decisions due to the ability to analyze large amounts of data in fractional seconds. In the long term it is obvious that this can not happen.
the market isnt systematic or periodic, like natural life and death cycles....., bird winter refuge routes, or salmon breeding return wanderings it cant be described with algortihms... there are trends, fashions that are temporarily. Yes, in principle I agree with you, but I would like to try. The project as I pointed out is experimental. It's in an embryonic phase, and right now I'm analyzing the results. The goal is to understand how accurate the proposed value can be. i think coding an interexchange arbitrage bot is more secure, and more successful than trying to prognose bitcoin but there are many doing that already I've done both - I've built an arbitrage bot and an AI that finds trading patterns (genetic approach). The arbitrage bot isn't efficient because the markets are moving so fast that you don't get the prices that you want - even if your sever is directly connected to the exchange server. It doesn't matter how fast your algorithm is - it's physically impossible (talking about bitfinex). You can maybe earn something on slower markets but it's less lucrative and it takes a lot of work to do and event after that it isn't guarateed to work. It can also be that you have calculated that you will earn a lot of money but after a few months, when the project is finished it's 1/10 of that because numbers like trading volume have changed significantly. What, maybe, could work are HFT strategies implementing a mix of insurance Mathematics and Ergodic theory which is a bit like trying to beat roulette at the casino but this takes a LOT of work and time. Cross exchange arbitrage can end up being a huge problem because sometimes coins are locked for deposit and withdrawal and then people will pump them usually. Unexpected exchange behaviour in general is a problem. And I haven't even started to talk about all the numbers like fake volume that a lot of exchanges are displaying (like 95% fake volume). The AI is funny - the more complex your trading strategy becomes, based on the data you feed the bot with, the less it will work in the future. It's because you have the too opposites "General Rule" vs "Specific rule". The more specific a rule is the less it will work in general and the more general a rule is the less it will work in a specific case. So what the Bot wants to find is a (relativly) simple, general rule. A rule like that does not exist. By saying "does not exist" I mean that there is no simple, general rule that would have made you more money than just buying and holding bitcoin (if you analyze all bitcoin trading data on Bitstamp from 2015 until now) I have used some genetic algorithms to search for patterns, but now I'm trying to extract a good result (with extreme difficulty) from the prediction algorithms. |
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okocrypto
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August 11, 2018, 11:26:37 AM |
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As far as am concern, Bitcoin future rest heavily on human sentiments as there is o clear market analysis at present. Am struggling to understand the basis of this project. If there is any tool that performs sentiment analysis, then I see hope in it else it will amount to futile effort.
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megalinux (OP)
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August 12, 2018, 09:04:06 AM |
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As far as am concern, Bitcoin future rest heavily on human sentiments as there is o clear market analysis at present. Am struggling to understand the basis of this project. If there is any tool that performs sentiment analysis, then I see hope in it else it will amount to futile effort.
Of course, the algo KNN is used together with sentiment analysis (for now only twitter). |
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megalinux (OP)
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August 12, 2018, 09:17:37 AM |
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Lite Coin Ultra is the great project and the coin hit $ 10 soon. I hope dev working on this great project.
Well, a project that I will follow ...but remembre my project for now is experimental |
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hugeblack
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August 12, 2018, 02:33:11 PM |
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The algorithm analyzes historical bitcoin data and use K nearest neighbours algorithm to make a prediction (very simple...for now is experimental project). I use the Bitcoin historical API powered by CoinDesk to collect the data. In the future, I would to add a sentiment analysis to this value.
It is better to output these data in a statistical form or to update the data in the form of charts rather than digitally displayed. [make a chart like CoinDesk] - Try to make the error between the expected and actual values given the correct results in future predictions. - Try to be an analysis based on the news and then improve the algorithm to ascertain the amount of impact of any news on the price and thus become more credible prediction. - Provide pricing charts for historical data, news, and trading platforms. Any abnormal difference would be a manipulation of the price. Good work looking forward to upcoming updates |
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KingScorpio
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August 12, 2018, 02:51:26 PM |
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i doubt that bitcoin will stay an important cryptocurrency for long, people arent supporting it anymore just look at the second and third bitcoin fork (bitcoin gold -96% bitcoin cash -80%)
they are dying and bitcoin will follow them,
what stays after that will be a babylon like world of confusing cryptocurrencies
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megalinux (OP)
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August 13, 2018, 03:32:45 PM |
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The algorithm analyzes historical bitcoin data and use K nearest neighbours algorithm to make a prediction (very simple...for now is experimental project). I use the Bitcoin historical API powered by CoinDesk to collect the data. In the future, I would to add a sentiment analysis to this value.
It is better to output these data in a statistical form or to update the data in the form of charts rather than digitally displayed. [make a chart like CoinDesk] - Try to make the error between the expected and actual values given the correct results in future predictions. - Try to be an analysis based on the news and then improve the algorithm to ascertain the amount of impact of any news on the price and thus become more credible prediction. - Provide pricing charts for historical data, news, and trading platforms. Any abnormal difference would be a manipulation of the price. Good work looking forward to upcoming updates In twitter the chart is possible only within an image...I will probably link the tweets to a web site with the information you suggested. Thank you! |
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megalinux (OP)
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August 13, 2018, 03:36:16 PM |
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i doubt that bitcoin will stay an important cryptocurrency for long, people arent supporting it anymore just look at the second and third bitcoin fork (bitcoin gold -96% bitcoin cash -80%)
they are dying and bitcoin will follow them,
what stays after that will be a babylon like world of confusing cryptocurrencies
Probable So, the end will be a confusing world of cryptocurrencie, and so, what will we do? |
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KingScorpio
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August 13, 2018, 03:39:32 PM |
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i doubt that bitcoin will stay an important cryptocurrency for long, people arent supporting it anymore just look at the second and third bitcoin fork (bitcoin gold -96% bitcoin cash -80%)
they are dying and bitcoin will follow them,
what stays after that will be a babylon like world of confusing cryptocurrencies
Probable So, the end will be a confusing world of cryptocurrencie, and so, what will we do? new communist movements and coins of style area with new banking cartels arising |
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megalinux (OP)
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August 13, 2018, 03:53:47 PM |
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i doubt that bitcoin will stay an important cryptocurrency for long, people arent supporting it anymore just look at the second and third bitcoin fork (bitcoin gold -96% bitcoin cash -80%)
they are dying and bitcoin will follow them,
what stays after that will be a babylon like world of confusing cryptocurrencies
Probable So, the end will be a confusing world of cryptocurrencie, and so, what will we do? new communist movements and coins of style area with new banking cartels arising interesting, then there will be the way even in that "world" to invent and do something new .... Today I developed this project, maybe in that scenario I'll do something else! |
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