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Author Topic: You want the bear market to stop? Here are some things you can do :)  (Read 772 times)
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August 21, 2018, 11:06:58 PM
 #81

I would like to add one more aspect to your amazing post. It goes really close to being a developer or maybe donating to the cause.

What about hosting a node to support the Bitcoin network?. It comes with certain costs and measurements you need to take, but you will be for sure helping the cause. Make sure to read carefully before making the decision though. If Bitcoin is illegal in your country you could get in trouble, also if you have limited data plan you could pass it since it uses Bandwidth, of course. However, if you have some spare Gbs a month, you could measure the data consumed and stop doing it for the month when it reach a certain limit.

The information is right here: https://bitcoin.org/en/full-node
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August 21, 2018, 11:13:25 PM
 #82

If Bitcoin is used more as a currency, then there should be both more supply and more demand for it:
- Users (buyers) are basically "selling" their bitcoin -> supply goes up
- But they can only buy things for BTC if there is a merchant accepting it. A merchant is equivalent to a "buy order". => so every merchant accepting BTC drives up the demand

This means that the relation, at the end, becomes equilibrated. Bitcoin would simply circulate.
There are various factors that might influence demand and supply, mere buying and selling won't affect it. Also, if buyers are selling, supply doesn't really go up. Merchants accepting bitcoin won't increase demand, people have to buy something from that merchant. This is a highly debatable topic, and using the old-school micro/macroeconomic theories don't really go hand in hand with bitcoin, there needs to be a crypto-economic theory. Because the theories that I am aware of, are contradicting with bitcoin's nature if I am being honest. Its confusing too, to compare and put down a hypothetical scenario and find how the equilibrium is attained.

The only scenario where I can see supply going up without demand "catching up" by merchants and equilibrating it, is when we have a phase (e.g. a year) when Bitcoin becomes massively used as a currency, and then suddenly there are less merchants accepting it. In this case Bitcoin holders would be forced to HODL or to sell them for fiat, which may drive down the price.

But I consider this scenario to not be very likely, because when customers show a high "intention to buy things with BTC", merchants would view that as an opportunity to sell more goods and services. The only reason for a "massive merchant exit" to happen, would be when stricter regulations in an important market come into effect.
There are many more scenarios than that, I don't want to go more into it, because this becomes more of an educational confusing debate, and there'll be no winner at the end. Crypto-economics is really complicated, and I am still trying to use my brain to try relating them with the micro-macro economic theories.

Sorry, I don't understand your point here. It's true that this refund policy would only work in bull markets, but in bear markets the problem of people hoarding BTC is less pronunciated (in fact, we saw more usage "as a currency" in bear markets, e.g. in 2014-15). In bear markets this "merchant policy" is better suited. Merchants could combine both.
What I meant was, people will stop using the refund back policies, there'd someother marketing strategy by then, and whatever happens, the community would go back to hodling again. Like you said, people were spending more in 2014-15, but when prices started to rise, they started hodling it. If ever, merchants, the more popular ones start accepting crypto, then the price will rise, at the same time, people will start stocking it, and sell later, and before you realize it, bitcoin becomes an investment again.

I really wish I could explain this using some graphs, I can, but not everyone would be able to understand it, unless they know the basics.

It feels good, that people are actually having conversations here. The spam is too much, but am happy that some people are at least bothering to reply.


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voltagecrypto
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August 21, 2018, 11:31:33 PM
 #83

Well the proposed is good. As a payment solution bitcoin should be used for. An online business can accept the bitcoin as payment. Though, the regulations of different country differ. But it is true that, using BTC is one of the most important thing to stop the bear market.
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August 22, 2018, 01:14:39 AM
 #84

If 20% of this forum member using one of what OP propose then i believe btc will going to rise more than ATH . but i would like to add a point that if anyone do not have the OP criteria then we can help by spreading the word of optimistic in our real-life about future of BTC. More people aware of this thing would give a great outcome
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August 22, 2018, 04:49:04 AM
 #85

There are various factors that might influence demand and supply, mere buying and selling won't affect it.
I disagree with the last words of your sentence. "Mere buying and selling" would lead to more supply and more demand at the same time - in other words: to more liquidity.

Imagine you are fearing a crash and prices at the exchanges are beginning to descend. If you panic now and sell your coins at an exchange, you will find yourself "deepening" the crash because you take out a buy order and chances are high the price falls further down. If you, instead, buy something for the BTC, then there are three things that can happen: 1) the merchant sells the coins because he's panicking too, 2) he holds, 3) he spends them.

Case 3 (spending), in a "Bitcoin ecosystem" where you can buy almost everything for BTC would be always an attractive option, and it would not have a "deepening" effect on the crash at all - it would only make Bitcoin circulate.

The more attractive case 3 is, the stronger the stabilizing effect.

You are maybe right that the nature of BItcoin's distribution/reward policy (with fixed total supply) may have also a strong influence, but supply and demand theories still apply, at least explaining parts of the price movements.

Quote
What I meant was, people will stop using the refund back policies, there'd someother marketing strategy by then, and whatever happens, the community would go back to hodling again. Like you said, people were spending more in 2014-15, but when prices started to rise, they started hodling it. If ever, merchants, the more popular ones start accepting crypto, then the price will rise, at the same time, people will start stocking it, and sell later, and before you realize it, bitcoin becomes an investment again.
OK, I understand your point now about "increasing prices after more acceptance". Yes, there is always a danger that such a "revert to hodling" could happen.

But if merchants offer davis196's "refund policy", then it becomes attractive to spend the BTC even in bull markets. You can ensure you won't be hit by a sudden crash, but you also will profit if the price goes further up - and then you get some Bitcoins back and the things you bought. And merchants would profit from high selling volume, too - so they will continue to offer these refunds, until the market turns to bearish again.

I can imagine this "scheme" to become a real alternative to hodling. And this would have also a secondary effect: As it's always possible that merchants sell the BTC at some time for fiat (e.g. to take out part of the risk) then there would be also more sell orders on fiat/crypto exchanges, mitigating the "FOMO" and increasing liquid supply. Above all I can imagine this to happen in the final stages of the bull market, when it becomes clear that a "mania" is taking place and sudden crashes are to be expected. A merchant with sustainable price policies would then probably sell as fast as possible, even suspending the refund policy until the mania has ended.

There's not all said, and maybe there are other effects, but overall I'm sure that usage would stabilize the price evolution - but because of the effects you mentioned, bubbles couldn't fully be prevented.

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August 22, 2018, 06:10:39 AM
 #86

I just want to add. If you are a business owner, you should seriously consider accepting Bitcoin as a payment option and it must not stop there. You should offer "Bitcoin Only" specials for people who paid with bitcoins, because you want to motivate people to pay with bitcoins and not cash or any other payment option.  Wink

Bitcoiners should also support these merchants and retailers, because they are supporting us. ^hmmmm^

 
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August 22, 2018, 07:10:37 PM
 #87

bitcoin are more secure and potential but now bitcoin price are fall down. i think do not need to worry because it will come back and turn around immediately. it will do something good for investor. in my opinion it is very good opportunity to invest here.
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August 22, 2018, 07:34:34 PM
 #88

thanks a lot for the advice of the author! I think many newcomers will find it interesting to read about what an intelligent and competent investor thinks about the situation on the market Smiley

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August 22, 2018, 08:09:12 PM
 #89

i think it is good opportunity to invest here.bitcoin are more profitable and potential. it will increasing their price and make more profit. it will come back and turn around in future.
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August 22, 2018, 08:54:48 PM
 #90

I just want to add. If you are a business owner, you should seriously consider accepting Bitcoin as a payment option and it must not stop there. You should offer "Bitcoin Only" specials for people who paid with bitcoins, because you want to motivate people to pay with bitcoins and not cash or any other payment option.  Wink
Good point - Bitcoin-only promotions would surely help to increase the Bitcoin e-commerce usage.

The goal would be to create attractive conditions for rational Bitcoin holders. They should never think they lose an opportunity if they spend their "precious" Bitcoins. If there is a promotion of this kind - let's say a 10% discount - and it's on an item the Bitcoin holder usually buys, then he could have the following "thought stream" (think of this stereotypical image of an angel and a devil in his brain):

Angel: OK, I buy this item now.
Devil: But what if afterwards the Bitcoin price increases?
Angel: It's 10% cheaper than normal. And I need it.
Devil: I've still doubts.
Angel: Well, let's calculate. Tomorrow I could buy back the Bitcoins. And then I would only lose if the Bitcoin goes up 10% until tomorrow.
Devil: But Bitcoin is so volatile ...
Angel: The probability that the price goes up for 10% in a single day is very low. In fact, this happened only in very few days of the last two years, mainly in the 2017 bubble.
Devil: But what if that happens just today?
Angel: It could also go down 10%. Then I have lost 20% - 10% in price decrease and 10% in opportunity cost because I didn't buy that offer with the 10% discount.
Devil: *disappears*

Wink

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August 22, 2018, 08:58:58 PM
 #91

Bitcoin are more profitable and potential. it will make more profit in future. now it is still more than 54% in the crypto market. its future are good. it will do something good for investor in future.
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August 22, 2018, 09:00:47 PM
 #92

This is a great advice and I hope everyone will see this work. We are preparing for a bright future do bitcoin must also prepare for that and if we see a great support level maybe bitcoin can now may a good run. We really need a strong technology that can bring us to the future, let’s believe on bitcoin.

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August 22, 2018, 09:31:06 PM
 #93

Nobody what to spend bitcoin people see it as a investment/store of value I going to get the flood of well i use bitcoin for spending on items bullshit.People talk a big game bit i know from first hand knowledge people do not support crypto by spending it  .I am the owner of https://allforcrypto.com/  and u can give a guess how many items i sold  this  month zero  .How many people posted there items for sale on it zero .A simple website to use easier then then openbazaar  and bitfity for the average joe zero interest .The ability to easy promote your products using social media no interest.



Guessing nobody here will put there money where there mouth is then .

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August 22, 2018, 10:28:57 PM
 #94

The market has already started to grow. We just have to be a little more patience. If every body hold their patience and coins the market will definitely will rise again and there is no doubt.
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August 23, 2018, 03:47:00 AM
Last edit: August 23, 2018, 04:31:58 AM by d5000
 #95

People talk a big game bit i know from first hand knowledge people do not support crypto by spending it  .I am the owner of https://allforcrypto.com/  and u can give a guess how many items i sold  this  month zero  .How many people posted there items for sale on it zero .
I understand your anger, and what you describe here is exactly the problem we have to solve.

Apart from the currently low eagerness of people to spend their BTC, there is another problem: finding merchants isn't as easy as it should be. Your website, for example, is pretty difficult to find using Google.

There are, mainly, these bigger merchant lists I know:

- 99bitcoins - relatively frequently updated, but very confusing and without any categorization; no altcoins
- Coinmap - nicely designed but often outdated; no altcoins
- CoinPayments - ok, with altcoins, but has less merchants than expected.
- there was also a list in the Bitcoin wiki, but I don't find it now.

So one of the conclusions is: We would need a good, regularly updated search engine finding merchants that accept Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. I have seen some newer web portals but no one had more than ~200-300 entries (most had less than 100).

(Regarding "put your money where your mouth is": I use Bitcoin to pay about a tenth of my montly expenses. I would like to use it for more, but in my region/country there are not too many options to spend it.)

(Added the three link lists/portals to the OP. If you know more, please post them!)

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August 23, 2018, 04:19:41 AM
 #96

I think holding on for a long time won't help bitcoin get out of the bear market, because Bitcoin requires high demand to achieve maximum value, one of the contributions that the Bitcoin community can make is to try to use bitcoin as much as we can by making payments in bitcoin or by getting salary and other income on bitcoin. In this way, the price of bitcoin won't depend much on the trading market because it will have the back support of people who use it as a currency.
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August 23, 2018, 09:33:14 AM
 #97

I think the market is now going to move upward. All we can that wait for the full recovery.So I just hold the token for the Christmas because end of this year it will increase more.
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August 23, 2018, 09:43:11 AM
 #98

It seems to me, the best way to stop the drop of bitcoin now, is simply to explain to people what bitcoin is and how it works. Many still believe that this is just a pyramid and do not understand the value of blochain technology.
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August 23, 2018, 10:15:18 AM
 #99

I agree with you, and these are some very important points raised.. If people start making use of bitcoin for even the smallest daily transactions they make, they'd be helping the system by creating more demand. This was, it will gain more ground and acceptance.

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August 23, 2018, 01:55:58 PM
 #100

Yes, investors expect price increases like magic in bitcoin. But it is not always possible. In many cases, Bitcoin's trust will lead you to the next profit. And now people are accepting Bitcoin all over the world.
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