I am predicting a spike above $3

[Dan The Man]

It is not really a prediction, more of a guess work. 

what's the difference?

[Nagle]

We might see $3.  After each big drop, there's been some recovery. But each top was lower than the last, and each recovery lasted no more than three days.

no one's listening to you.

Actually, I've received several private messages recently thanking me for keeping them from making a big financial mistake.

Now let's have a look at "cypherdoc"'s track record:

• September 3, 2011: "while the falloff has been dramatic, it appears to be stabilizing around this 8-10 range.  i keep accumulating on the way down.  just give it time.  they can't stop it."
• August 4, 2011: "Re: $10,000 Bet that Bitcoins will outperform Gold, Silver by 100X !!! --- i happen to agree and i've staked my money on it!!!!"
• July 9, 2011: "i will also bet any or all of you btc bears/trolls in this thread 100 BTC each to be held in escrow that the USD price of 1 BTC will exceed $20 in one year."

If he's telling the truth, he's lost a lot of money in Bitcoin. Anybody fool enough to listen to him did, too.

[blueadept]

We need a Bitcoin betting website where speculators can actually bet on prices and link their bets.

You mean like a currency futures market? That'd be nice. It would actually help stabilize bitcoin prices.

[bitfoo]

We need a Bitcoin betting website where speculators can actually bet on prices and link their bets.

Have you seen http://www.spaculator.com/ ?

[Nagle]

You mean like a currency futures market? That'd be nice. It would actually help stabilize bitcoin prices.

A futures market requires counterparties you can find and trust, or at least apply pressure upon, when it's time for them to pay up. The Bitcoin community doesn't have such institutions.

[johnj]

Nagle, genuine question which I believe others have, but I'll frame it respectably:

Are you 100% bear, ie the bitcoin project will fall to pennies and will never regain stature, or are you just suggesting that for the mid-term?

If it's the former option, why do you continue to spend your time posting?  Your tone doesn't ring of altruistic intent, so what else can it be attributed to?

[cypherdoc]

We might see $3.  After each big drop, there's been some recovery. But each top was lower than the last, and each recovery lasted no more than three days.

no one's listening to you.

Actually, I've received several private messages recently thanking me for keeping them from making a big financial mistake.

Now let's have a look at "cypherdoc"'s track record:

• September 3, 2011: "while the falloff has been dramatic, it appears to be stabilizing around this 8-10 range.  i keep accumulating on the way down.  just give it time.  they can't stop it."
• August 4, 2011: "Re: $10,000 Bet that Bitcoins will outperform Gold, Silver by 100X !!! --- i happen to agree and i've staked my money on it!!!!"
• July 9, 2011: "i will also bet any or all of you btc bears/trolls in this thread 100 BTC each to be held in escrow that the USD price of 1 BTC will exceed $20 in one year."

If he's telling the truth, he's lost a lot of money in Bitcoin. Anybody fool enough to listen to him did, too.

is Bitcoin dead yet?  oh yeah; still functioning.  yes i believe in Bitcoin.  when it goes to zero or when i sell, then i will have lost.  i've always said i'm giving it 10 yrs.

[Nagle]

Nagle, genuine question which I believe others have, but I'll frame it respectably:

Are you 100% bear, ie the bitcoin project will fall to pennies and will never regain stature, or are you just suggesting that for the mid-term?

If it's the former option, why do you continue to spend your time posting?  Your tone doesn't ring of altruistic intent, so what else can it be attributed to?

OK, I'll give a real answer.  I think Bitcoin is an interesting concept, and I want to see how it plays out. I also strongly dislike scams.

If someone could come up with something good enough to replace PayPal or debit cards, that would be a win. Bitcoin, as currently designed, isn't it.

Bitcoin, the software, provides a means for unidirectional, irrevocable money transfer between anonymous parties. This is the scammer's dream. There's almost no risk of the mark coming back with cops or a baseball bat. With no revocation mechanism, no dispute resolution mechanism, no reputation mechanism, and  no enforcement mechanism, the Bitcoin world has been able to replicate, in only a few months, almost every classic financial scam of the 19th century, from John Law's bank to tulipomania to the South Sea Bubble.  That's the biggest problem with Bitcoin on the currency side.

It's worth watching Bitcoin to see how not to do it. Technically, I think the revocation problem could be fixed.  I've suggested using a two-phased commit, where a money transfer takes place with an "authorize" and a "capture" phase. I've described that elsewhere. This thing needs something so that scammers can't scam without consequences. 

The speculation market is a straight pump and dump.  That's why I'm down on the "pumpers".  This is a zero sum game. Bitcoin generates no revenue. Frantic efforts to recruit more investors to pay off the old ones make it a pyramid scheme.  I'm thus suspicious of the "BUY BUY BUY crowd".

Now I'm waiting to see how the endgame plays out.

[Dan The Man]

Two phase contracts are possible with current bitcoins, just something that isn't implemented into the program. Gavin Anderson put up some talks about smart contracts and various ways that money can be tied up in limbo with or without a third party. For example, you could send payment to someone whereby you lock up the funds but payment is not completed until the payer agrees that the transaction is completed, or the receiver agrees on a refund or both parties agree to send the money to a third party.

[teek]

Nagle, genuine question which I believe others have, but I'll frame it respectably:

Are you 100% bear, ie the bitcoin project will fall to pennies and will never regain stature, or are you just suggesting that for the mid-term?

If it's the former option, why do you continue to spend your time posting?  Your tone doesn't ring of altruistic intent, so what else can it be attributed to?

OK, I'll give a real answer.  I think Bitcoin is an interesting concept, and I want to see how it plays out. I also strongly dislike scams.

If someone could come up with something good enough to replace PayPal or debit cards, that would be a win. Bitcoin, as currently designed, isn't it.

Bitcoin, the software, provides a means for unidirectional, irrevocable money transfer between anonymous parties. This is the scammer's dream. There's almost no risk of the mark coming back with cops or a baseball bat. With no revocation mechanism, no dispute resolution mechanism, no reputation mechanism, and  no enforcement mechanism, the Bitcoin world has been able to replicate, in only a few months, almost every classic financial scam of the 19th century, from John Law's bank to tulipomania to the South Sea Bubble.  That's the biggest problem with Bitcoin on the currency side.

It's worth watching Bitcoin to see how not to do it. Technically, I think the revocation problem could be fixed.  I've suggested using a two-phased commit, where a money transfer takes place with an "authorize" and a "capture" phase. I've described that elsewhere. This thing needs something so that scammers can't scam without consequences. 

The speculation market is a straight pump and dump.  That's why I'm down on the "pumpers".  This is a zero sum game. Bitcoin generates no revenue. Frantic efforts to recruit more investors to pay off the old ones make it a pyramid scheme.  I'm thus suspicious of the "BUY BUY BUY crowd".

Now I'm waiting to see how the endgame plays out.

I was kind of interested to see how you would respond to this..  The network / protocol in and of itself may not solve the scam problem you mention..  but I don't see that as a shortcoming OR it's responsibility at all.  The protocol was built with a purpose, it serves that purpose very well.   Protocols may be revised / updated for functionality, security, etc.. we all know this.  What's usually more important than the protocol itself is the implementation of said protocol, how it is used in the real world.  Just because the core protocol itself does not support revocation (in my opinion it shouldn't), that does not mean that entities that use this back-end protocol in their systems / applications can't support such things, it is up to the people / businesses that build on top of this protocol to make this happen. 

What we have here is a very experimental time where people are playing with a very powerful low-level protocol that just happens to have a fairly easy gui attached to it.  How often are people exposed to such technology and such a low-level?  The events you have mentioned are bound to happen in this type of scenario.  Just as crazy data breaches of the 80's and 90's and even recently happened with early versions of protocols that are now in dominant use today. 

People should be wary of all kinds of pump and dumps, this is not unique to bitcoin.  Is it going "to the moon"?  Probably not anytime soon.  Are people going to be "running a node" and using this back-end protocol to buy a pack of gum?  I sure hope not.  I don't think you're going to get to see the endgame, because you won't live that long.  The concept is too powerful to be abandoned, one way or another, even if it isn't specifically bitcoin (I still think it could be), this idea isn't going away.  The scam problem is really just because people are attempting to use this low-level beta protocol without fully understanding the implications.  Obviously the argument has been made a bunch of times, but I'll say it again, the same thing could be said with cash, it is non-revocable, there are many other services that build on-top of cash to try to provide (badly) the same thing bitcoin does, western union for example.  Try sending a WU, having it accepted on the other side, and getting that money back..

 

[Dan The Man]

Well looks like it finally happened. The funny thing is that I was playing with the small roller coaster and missed the big jump

[svojoe]

About the spike, you just got it...

[cypherdoc]

nice call.  i'll take some credit.

[ArsenShnurkov]

Well looks like it finally happened

Looks like it was inspired by your prognosis.

The funny thing is that the price will not go above

[Dan The Man]

It will soon enough.

[ArsenShnurkov]

It will soon enough.

But there is no fundamental factors to support this rise.
Number of nodes is decreasing and the inflation rate is constant.

[cypherdoc]

It will soon enough.

But there is no fundamental factors to support this rise.
Number of nodes is decreasing and the inflation rate is constant.

there was nothing fundamental about the long fall.

[Dan The Man]

I am going to make a short term position here and say that the first spike tonight was the product of a massive buy by some big hitters. The second spike was just a reaction to the first spike. The third drive up will push through with some real momentum behind it.

[worldinacoin]

Looks like a bit late, but the bitcoin is going up quite well, maybe $3 is really within reach.

[Cluster2k]

It hit $3 bang on, but now there's an evil bid 'wall' in the way.  Cry havoc, and let slip the dogs of war.  Tear it down! :-)