I am predicting a spike above $3

[S3052]

compared to previous walls, the ask wall at 3$ is quite small

[ArsenShnurkov]

compared to previous walls, the ask wall at 3$ is quite small

You was always too bullish in your predictions...

[S3052]

that is not true. i predicted the decline from the 32$ high, then predicted the decline to 5$ and below, giving many sell signals to subscribers.
you can chose to subscribe to get all signals, or not. it is up to you./color]

[P4man]

If enough people believe your predictions, it becomes a self full fulling prophecy no matter what you predict. Just about the *only* thing determining BTC price currently is short term speculation, so what you are really predicting is the behavior of short term speculators. It makes no sense, and frankly, its undermining bitcoin's usefulness as a trade tool I wish Satoshi had implemented a "tobin tax".

[S3052]

we are predicting long term, mid term and short term trends. you can chose to not read them.

there are many people wanting this service

[Bigpiggy01]

If enough people believe your predictions, it becomes a self full fulling prophecy no matter what you predict. Just about the *only* thing determining BTC price currently is short term speculation, so what you are really predicting is the behavior of short term speculators. It makes no sense, and frankly, its undermining bitcoin's usefulness as a trade tool I wish Satoshi had implemented a "tobin tax".

Ummm some of us have actually made quite a few good decisions based on this analysis

[P4man]

Ummm some of us have actually made quite a few good decisions based on this analysis

And just as many of you will have made just as many bad decisions. Thats not the point, the point is that bitcoin as a whole is losing badly from the volatility caused by this kind of short term trading gambling.

[worldinacoin]

It hasn't been able to break $3, but the gains are quite encouraging and bitcoins appear to be able to hold on to the gains.

[Dan The Man]

And just as many of you will have made just as many bad decisions. Thats not the point, the point is that bitcoin as a whole is losing badly from the volatility caused by this kind of short term trading gambling.

Who is this Bitcoin you speak of and how do price changes hurt its feelings? What you mean to say is that YOU don't like volatility. Speculators that lose money are the ones who increase volatility. Speculators who are making money are like a tax on fluctuation. They are friction in the system. Anyways, you might as well go join a gun forums to tell them that guns are ruining America, or go to a car forum and espouse the benefits of public transport. Good luck on your quest to define and control exactly what Bitcoin is and should be.

[P4man]

What you mean to say is that YOU don't like volatility.

No; what I mean is anyone wanting to use bitcoin as a currency and trade tool, rather than a lottery doesnt like this volatility.  Its one of the major factors holding bitcoin from gaining more widespread acceptance (and thereby also, from increased price stability, nice catch 22).

Anyway, im not naive enough to expect posting will make anyone stop playing the lottery, but Im gonna voice my opinion whether you like it or not.

[cypherdoc]

If enough people believe your predictions, it becomes a self full fulling prophecy no matter what you predict. Just about the *only* thing determining BTC price currently is short term speculation, so what you are really predicting is the behavior of short term speculators. It makes no sense, and frankly, its undermining bitcoin's usefulness as a trade tool I wish Satoshi had implemented a "tobin tax".

thats just not true.  look at all the recent developments and improvements:  encrypted wallets, better DDoS protection, improved blockchain download times, Android apps, BitPay, Casascius's POS system, Casascius's Physical Bitcoins, increased mtgox security with direct cash deposits services, death of the altchain competitors, etc, etc, etc.

bears have blinders on.

[cypherdoc]

What you mean to say is that YOU don't like volatility.

No; what I mean is anyone wanting to use bitcoin as a currency and trade tool, rather than a lottery doesnt like this volatility.  Its one of the major factors holding bitcoin from gaining more widespread acceptance (and thereby also, from increased price stability, nice catch 22).

Anyway, im not naive enough to expect posting will make anyone stop playing the lottery, but Im gonna voice my opinion whether you like it or not.

this is just your opinion of things which could easily be wrong.  i submit that any merchant who believes in Bitcoin, especially if he has speculative juices in him, accept Bitcoin in payment hand over fist to accumulate as many as possible now w/o expending USD's before the true equilibrium value of Bitcoin is achieved, which IMO is WAY higher than what it is today.  thats my opinion.

[P4man]

i submit that any merchant who believes in Bitcoin, especially if he has speculative juices in him, accept Bitcoin in payment hand over fist to accumulate as many as possible now w/o expending USD's before the true equilibrium value of Bitcoin is achieved, which IMO is WAY higher than what it is today.  thats my opinion.

Spoken like a true gambler. A merchant has to pay for his stuff in $/EURO/Yen whatever. Gambling on the rise of "foreign" currencies is not what a merchant does, its what a speculator does. A merchant will want to protect himself from currency swings through hedging, even for swings as minor as what have between dollar and euro's etc. The volatility of bitcoin makes that a complete joke.

[cypherdoc]

i submit that any merchant who believes in Bitcoin, especially if he has speculative juices in him, accept Bitcoin in payment hand over fist to accumulate as many as possible now w/o expending USD's before the true equilibrium value of Bitcoin is achieved, which IMO is WAY higher than what it is today.  thats my opinion.

Spoken like a true gambler. A merchant has to pay for his stuff in $/EURO/Yen whatever. Gambling on the rise of "foreign" currencies is not what a merchant does, its what a speculator does. A merchant will want to protect himself from currency swings through hedging, even for swings as minor as what have between dollar and euro's etc. The volatility of bitcoin makes that a complete joke.

spoken like a linear thinking, uncreative, narrow-minded conservative.  but thats ok.  you act like Bitcoin has had many decades to prove itself but failed.  the market is thin b/c its so new.  of course theres volatility.  do you think gold is a bad investment given its volatility over the last decade despite it being close to the best investment over that period of time? 

IMO, the easiest or safest way to "gamble" on the future of Bitcoin is to offer services or goods for it, put them away for safe keeping, then wait.  of course he can't do this for 100% of his income but if he has a profitable USD business and he believes in Bitcoin, why not do it this way?

[teukon]

i submit that any merchant who believes in Bitcoin, especially if he has speculative juices in him, accept Bitcoin in payment hand over fist to accumulate as many as possible now w/o expending USD's before the true equilibrium value of Bitcoin is achieved, which IMO is WAY higher than what it is today.  thats my opinion.

Spoken like a true gambler. A merchant has to pay for his stuff in $/EURO/Yen whatever. Gambling on the rise of "foreign" currencies is not what a merchant does, its what a speculator does. A merchant will want to protect himself from currency swings through hedging, even for swings as minor as what have between dollar and euro's etc. The volatility of bitcoin makes that a complete joke.

Agreed.  One cannot expect all merchants to also be speculators/gamblers.  This is very much like expecting all miners to mine solo.  Some merchants will only use Bitcoin if they are able to enjoy its benefits without taking on the risks.

However, speculators and traders colluding to create an artifical stable Bitcoin price is not a solution; this would be akin to building a house upon sand.  Instead, Bitcoin has to go through this phase of wild speculation where some win big and others lose big.  This will kill off the day traders who don't know what they are doing and leave those that profit and create drag on the price.  This process will take a long time but it is an essential step toward a healthy kind of stability.  I believe it is unlikely that a level of stability that is acceptable to most merchants can be reached in the next 10 years and so I expect a series of competing companies offering options to merchants (basically taking the sting of market volatility out of the equation for a fee) will arise.

Of course, this all assumes that Bitcoin manages to dodge various devastating scenarios such as being hacked past the point of recovery or being declared illegal to trade in most countries.

[P4man]

do you think gold is a bad investment given its volatility over the last decade despite it being close to the best investment over that period of time? 

Again you seem utterly unable to see the difference between investing/gambling and the usefulness of a currency as a facilitator for conducting trade. Yes, I think gold is a bad way to conduct trade, no one uses gold to pay for their bread.

but if he has a profitable USD business and he believes in Bitcoin, why not do it this way?

Why on earth would he risk his profitable business on the moodswings of a bunch of daytraders? Clearly you have never done any actual business.

[cypherdoc]

do you think gold is a bad investment given its volatility over the last decade despite it being close to the best investment over that period of time?  

Again you seem utterly unable to see the difference between investing/gambling and the usefulness of a currency as a facilitator for conducting trade. Yes, I think gold is a bad way to conduct trade, no one uses gold to pay for their bread.

but if he has a profitable USD business and he believes in Bitcoin, why not do it this way?

Why on earth would he risk his profitable business on the moodswings of a bunch of daytraders? Clearly you have never done any actual business.

of course for the average business a currency which has zero fluctuation would be ideal.  yes, i own my own business thank you.

you seem totally incapable of admitting that Bitcoin volatility has been only 6 months old in a currency that has only been around since Jan 2009.  

[P4man]

you seem totally incapable of admitting that Bitcoin volatility has been only 6 months old in a currency that has only been around since Jan 2009.  

Volatility =! decreasing prices. Perhaps you think a 100x increase in price in mere months was somehow stable?
Bitcoin exchange rates have been extremely volatile since day 1. And yes, thats to be expected from something new and unknown, but as long as it remains this volatile, its going to have a damn hard time gaining any sort of traction aside from gamblers and allowing bitcoin to achieve an exchange rate that is more reflective of its performance as a currency rather than purely the combined panic/hype sentiments and self fulfilling prophecies of gamblers.

[imsaguy]

we are predicting long term, mid term and short term trends. you can chose to not read them.

there are many people wanting this service

If there are as many as you say there are, you wouldn't be pushing subscriptions.  You wouldn't have to.  Everyone would be suggesting it to their friends.

[cypherdoc]

you seem totally incapable of admitting that Bitcoin volatility has been only 6 months old in a currency that has only been around since Jan 2009.  

Volatility =! decreasing prices. Perhaps you think a 100x increase in price in mere months was somehow stable?
Bitcoin exchange rates have been extremely volatile since day 1. And yes, thats to be expected from something new and unknown, but as long as it remains this volatile, its going to have a damn hard time gaining any sort of traction aside from gamblers and allowing bitcoin to achieve an exchange rate that is more reflective of its performance as a currency rather than purely the combined panic/hype sentiments and self fulfilling prophecies of gamblers.

if you're so against gambling why are you hanging out in the Speculation Board?