Banned dude projects Bitcoin bounce maybe to $10k, then renewed decline to $4600

[Traxo]

https://steemit.com/trading/@anonymint/re-anonymint-bitcoin-to-usd15k-in-march-usd8-5k-by-june-then-usd30-k-by-q1-2019-20180818t094501515z

He also seems to think many or most altcoins might possibly decline to near 0 in 2019.

Any thoughts? (not about him but the logic and data for the projections)

EDIT:

Shelby made some edits to clarify his speculations and analyses:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4919568.msg44358289#msg44358289

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4919568.msg44421969#msg44421969

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[1Referee]

He also seems to think many or most altcoins might possibly decline to near 0 in 2019.

I dare anyone believing altcoins to become near worthless to short them, because instead of altcoins going to zero, your balance will go to zero.

We are dealing with people not caring about fundamentals, decentralization, currency aspect, etc. It all contributes to a situation where even the worst altcoins are worth billions which is pathetic but the damage is done already. It's impossible to bet against altcoins long term speaking because you are really going to burn yourself. Altcoin's get fueled by Bitcoin's increases and as long as Bitcoin keeps increasing, which it keeps doing, altcoins will follow.

[cellard]

$4600 would prove wrong the theory that Bitcoin cannot go below $5500-ish, which is the guesstimated cost of mining one bitcoin that I've heard lately. So far it seems to be working. Every time it breaks below $6k it gets a huge buy that creates big candle of up to $400+.

This doesn't guarantee anything but it's another resistance to considering given past precedence.

As far as all altcoins going near zero... I am not sure the market as a whole is mature enough to realize how most altcoins are shitcoins and they just should be holding as much BTC as possible on their portfolios. So when the next hype for crypto comes, I still expect another altcoin bubble.

[gentlemand]

$4600 would prove wrong the theory that Bitcoin cannot go below $5500-ish, which is the guesstimated cost of mining one bitcoin that I've heard lately. So far it seems to be working. Every time it breaks below $6k it gets a huge buy that creates big candle of up to $400+.

This doesn't guarantee anything but it's another resistance to considering given past precedence.

As far as all altcoins going near zero... I am not sure the market as a whole is mature enough to realize how most altcoins are shitcoins and they just should be holding as much BTC as possible on their portfolios. So when the next hype for crypto comes, I still expect another altcoin bubble.

And people said Bitcoin never went below its previous ATH until it did in 2015.

The markets don't care what anyone pays to mine a coin. That's the miner's problem and no one else's and I'll guess we might be shocked at how cheap it is for certain groups. Perhaps miners are in there batting away at the price but that seems like a rapid route to total ruin.

I've stopped giving a shit about the near term Bitcoin price. It'll be fine in the end. Is the $4000s possible? I don't see why not.

[buwaytress]

He also seems to think many or most altcoins might possibly decline to near 0 in 2019.

I dare anyone believing altcoins to become near worthless to short them, because instead of altcoins going to zero, your balance will go to zero.

We are dealing with people not caring about fundamentals, decentralization, currency aspect, etc. It all contributes to a situation where even the worst altcoins are worth billions which is pathetic but the damage is done already. It's impossible to bet against altcoins long term speaking because you are really going to burn yourself. Altcoin's get fueled by Bitcoin's increases and as long as Bitcoin keeps increasing, which it keeps doing, altcoins will follow.

Inclined to agree, but only when dealing with the top-tier or even second-tier alts. I don't have a specific categorisation that would qualify alts to these tiers, but having their own blockchain and active development would have to be a must.

I do believe that the hundreds of tokens that have launched in the past year are already struggling and the bulk of them don't have strong communities backing them, nor developers keen to spend even more time to revive their value and this will just further translate to delistings, and 0 liquidity, essentially, worthless.

But like you, I truly believe crypto is Bitcoin and Bitcoin is crypto. The fortunes of the entire market rest solely on Bitcoin's performance. For now, and for the foreseaable future.

[Jason.W]

I had one thought to add:

If bitcoin and alts were to rally two years in a row, this would likely classify quite a few people as accredited investors in the USA.

Assuming that quite a few folks sold enough to bring their income into the >200k USD range and likely both claimed and paid taxes to indicate this on their tax returns for last year, if the trend were to happen again this year .. it would actually allow many likely totally unprepared folks to now be technically qualifed as individual accredited investors, due to having earnings of over 200k for two years in a row, even if their total net worth is less than 1 million dollars.

Based off of this alone, I made a speculation that there would be no rally this year and if we were to pop to 10k again, it wouldn't be until after January next year if it were to rally at all. Naturally I didn't adhere 100% to my own speculation and have been buying (~50% back in already assuming a bottom in 2020) since going under 10k.

Because I might be totally off base in assuming that potentially creating accredited investors in one of the major sources of fresh bitcoin money would act negatively on the price in the medium term, or deeper down that thought is that the market is in any way rationally looking to protect itself.

Are there similar qualifications elsewhere that might cause some sort of natural tendency of large market traders to forego pushing the price up to profitable ranges?

[ssmc2]

Shelby's last prediction was that we'd be at 500k by 2025. Now he's saying not until 2031? Eh

[muslol67]

There are many people who believe in this view. After seeing 10K, a big drop is expected again. If such a thing really happens, a lot of people including myself will be tired of Bitcoin's investment. I hope this expectation goes away.

[The Sceptical Chymist]

Altcoin's get fueled by Bitcoin's increases and as long as Bitcoin keeps increasing, which it keeps doing, altcoins will follow.

I question that logic, because if no one is using those altcoins or even buying them, they can go to zero as a practical matter.  Even if a coin fell to 1 satoshi, if there are no buyers, there's no chance for a person to sell what he has.  Take a look at the Yobit 1-satoshi graveyard.  Put in a sell order on one of the crappiest coins there, and that order might sit there forever, never getting executed.

As far as this prediction in the OP, who knows.  Crypto is pretty resistant to typical analysis, as I've said many times.  It's not like the stock market where there are businesses behind a stock.  Crypto has no earnings, no P/E, none of that--there's just news, rumor, and sentiment, which translates into demand.  I'm not sure if anything drives the price of a coin except supply and demand, so where a given coin is going to be 10 years or 5 minutes from now is just guesswork.

I do agree that a lot of coins are headed toward zero.  Most never get used for anything except speculation, and that will probably end at some point.  And think about it.  How many different coins can the market really support?  They just keep coming and a lot of them are just crap.  That can't continue indefinitely.

[infofront]

The problem as I see it is the extrapolation based on a limited amount of data. We're trying to make predictions based on a cycle that has completed only three times.

A simple alternative, for instance, could be a repeating A-B-C pattern. 3 part patterns are commonly seen across various markets.

Or the pattern could be more complex. Here's another alternative analysis of the (well, a similar set of) data:


Source: https://twitter.com/CryptoKaleo/status/1009156602039971840

[reactorjuno]

Let's be honest, the altcoin frenzy of last year was the real bubble. Would not surprise me at all if they all disappear soon, bar the ones that passed the test of time already.
Also, what I would like to point out is that the context of 2018 is far different from the context of 2015 or 2013, that's why I am a bit skeptical by the prediction of a price of 100,000$ for Bitcoin in 5 years from now.

[Febo]

About this bottom in Jan 2020 I think it is way to late. Bottom will happen way faster then this.  But the start of a bull run is total possible to start in beginning of 2020.  Not sure if we will see a $10000 BTC before we reach bottom.   However we look at it, it seems that most agree that now and next year is the best time of the rest of your life to buy Bitcoin. With exception of infofront chart that screams NOW!

$4600 would prove wrong the theory that Bitcoin cannot go below $5500-ish, which is the guesstimated cost of mining one bitcoin that I've heard lately.

There is nothing like estimated cost of mining.  Cost of electricity is more then 10 times higher in South Korea then in Venezuela. That is x10 factor.    Also when price decline people stop mining and with that difficulty decrease and that means that those miners that still mine get more Bitcoins for same hashpower.

This chart is simply amazing

[nidacoinlove]

Altcoin's get fueled by Bitcoin's increases and as long as Bitcoin keeps increasing, which it keeps doing, altcoins will follow.

I question that logic, because if no one is using those altcoins or even buying them, they can go to zero as a practical matter.  Even if a coin fell to 1 satoshi, if there are no buyers, there's no chance for a person to sell what he has.  Take a look at the Yobit 1-satoshi graveyard.  Put in a sell order on one of the crappiest coins there, and that order might sit there forever, never getting executed.

As far as this prediction in the OP, who knows.  Crypto is pretty resistant to typical analysis, as I've said many times.  It's not like the stock market where there are businesses behind a stock.  Crypto has no earnings, no P/E, none of that--there's just news, rumor, and sentiment, which translates into demand.  I'm not sure if anything drives the price of a coin except supply and demand, so where a given coin is going to be 10 years or 5 minutes from now is just guesswork.

I do agree that a lot of coins are headed toward zero.  Most never get used for anything except speculation, and that will probably end at some point.  And think about it.  How many different coins can the market really support?  They just keep coming and a lot of them are just crap.  That can't continue indefinitely.

We have seen some of the coin turned into trash after having a good price but what makes them a trash is their performance. People demand for a coin with good characteristics and when that coin fails to deliver, people throw it out of their portfolio. This process will continue in crypto because we see a number of coins and tokens are launched and added to the list.
Being a student of Finance, I know the fundamentally the analysis and evaluation of coin and have no hesitation to state that sometimes thing go against the analysis in crypto. Crypto is greatly affected by news and rumors, but it needs an attachment not only technically but sentimentally as well. You can feel the scent of upcoming happenings only when you are in love with crypto otherwise depending on technical stuff only may lead you to a great trouble.

[buwaytress]

The problem as I see it is the extrapolation based on a limited amount of data. We're trying to make predictions based on a cycle that has completed only three times.

A simple alternative, for instance, could be a repeating A-B-C pattern. 3 part patterns are commonly seen across various markets.

Or the pattern could be more complex. Here's another alternative analysis of the (well, a similar set of) data:

That's actually the entire encapsulation of the TA problem with Bitcoin. Extremely constrained data history. How long's the open market been in existence, 7 years at maximum? With today's kind of volume, 2 years maximum? 3 cycles is all it's ever had, 3 bubbles, and the first two were easily manipulable so should be discarded.

The case is even worse with altcoins. Patterns repeat, until they don't. And they only show up if you're looking for them.

[gentlemand]

There are many people who believe in this view. After seeing 10K, a big drop is expected again. If such a thing really happens, a lot of people including myself will be tired of Bitcoin's investment. I hope this expectation goes away.

I don't think we're going to see 10 grand again until it's on its way beyond it. It's similar to the $1000 level. That took three years to return to and once it was passed it didn't come back.

[noormcs5]

https://steemit.com/trading/@anonymint/re-anonymint-bitcoin-to-usd15k-in-march-usd8-5k-by-june-then-usd30-k-by-q1-2019-20180818t094501515z

He also seems to think many or most altcoins might possibly decline to near 0 in 2019.

Any thoughts? (not about him but the logic and data for the projections)

Do not believe in such articles. Although the article is written good and arguments are given with facts and numbers but that does not mean that altcoins will be down to zero in 2019. That's not gonna happen. Anyone can write anything on steemit and statements like these can give some views and up votes at the paying sites like steemit. So that's why we often come across such ridiculous articles every now and then.

[1Referee]

Inclined to agree, but only when dealing with the top-tier or even second-tier alts.

I question that logic, because if no one is using those altcoins or even buying them, they can go to zero as a practical matter.  Even if a coin fell to 1 satoshi, if there are no buyers, there's no chance for a person to sell what he has.  Take a look at the Yobit 1-satoshi graveyard.  Put in a sell order on one of the crappiest coins there, and that order might sit there forever, never getting executed.

I wasn't exactly referring to the absolute bottom of the crypto junkyard.

I was more referring to the visible top tier crypto currencies that you can actually short through one of the multiple platforms offering these trading features, which is why I said I dare anyone to short them. The top 10 crypto currencies are heavily tied to Bitcoin's price and more often than not don't move on their own, unless they get pumped out of nothing, but these pumps never last long since pumpers will cash out and tank the market down again.

People were initially heavily speculating about BCash to become worthless, but that hasn't really happened. With so much trading features available nowadays everyone can put their money where their mouth is and short them, but no one seems to be in the mood for that.

[podyx]

Source: https://twitter.com/CryptoKaleo/status/1009156602039971840

[cellard]

$4600 would prove wrong the theory that Bitcoin cannot go below $5500-ish, which is the guesstimated cost of mining one bitcoin that I've heard lately. So far it seems to be working. Every time it breaks below $6k it gets a huge buy that creates big candle of up to $400+.

This doesn't guarantee anything but it's another resistance to considering given past precedence.

As far as all altcoins going near zero... I am not sure the market as a whole is mature enough to realize how most altcoins are shitcoins and they just should be holding as much BTC as possible on their portfolios. So when the next hype for crypto comes, I still expect another altcoin bubble.

And people said Bitcoin never went below its previous ATH until it did in 2015.

The markets don't care what anyone pays to mine a coin. That's the miner's problem and no one else's and I'll guess we might be shocked at how cheap it is for certain groups. Perhaps miners are in there batting away at the price but that seems like a rapid route to total ruin.

I've stopped giving a shit about the near term Bitcoin price. It'll be fine in the end. Is the $4000s possible? I don't see why not.

I don't like to compare 2013's crash with the current crash. The fundamentals were terrible. I was ready to hit ridiculously low prices after the MtGox clusterfuck debacle. Very ready to hit below the april 8 2013th peak.

But right now things are different. The fundamentals aren't a nightmare that I can see, to justify super low prices.

As far as the cost of mining theory goes, I don't know how legit the actual numbers are, however I know self fulfilling theory is very legit, and at this point the $5500 ish barrier might have become a strong enough resistance that it's take in consideration for the market. I mean look at the graph, it always bounces back.


Could we go below there? sure. Would it break this theory? not really, unless we have a sustained period of price below the supposed cost of mining. If it happens then I guess the theory was wrong. But if we spend a week or so and then it quickly pumps back , it wouldn't really disprove it in my book.

[bobo012]

https://steemit.com/trading/@anonymint/re-anonymint-bitcoin-to-usd15k-in-march-usd8-5k-by-june-then-usd30-k-by-q1-2019-20180818t094501515z

He also seems to think many or most altcoins might possibly decline to near 0 in 2019.

Any thoughts? (not about him but the logic and data for the projections)

I think he has some good analysis, i particullary agree with him on altcoins. There are too much and all will not survive in the long term. Market caps are unnaturally inflated and non existing in reality. Purge will come, when i dont know