TA 101 with MatTheCat. Critical Turning Point Ahead?

[Dalmar]

MatTheCat,

You should get on tradingview.com and use more indicators. Those rudimentary bitcoinwisdom lines can be misleading, using a pitchfork with a better angle gives you a clearer picture. Currently momentum on a daily chart has a downward slope and the CMF and RSI look a bit too moonish compared to the July 2013 bottom. Also, the heikin ashi daily candles look indecisive

[wendel]

You should get on tradingview.com and use more indicators. Those rudimentary bitcoinwisdom lines can be misleading, using a pitchfork with a better angle gives you a clearer picture. Currently momentum on a daily chart has a downward angle and the CMF and RSI look a bit too moonish compared to the July 2013 bottom. Also, the heiken ashi daily candles look indecisive

Would you mind posting a picture?

Thx
W

[Dalmar]

Would you mind posting a picture?

Thx
W

My charts are a bit too cluttered with various indicators and hard to read. If you go to tradingview.com and open a chart for BITSTAMP:BTCUSD you can compare those indicators (RSI/CMF) with the July 2013 bottom and the current market state. It looks quite anomalous.

[mmitech]

You should get on tradingview.com and use more indicators. Those rudimentary bitcoinwisdom lines can be misleading, using a pitchfork with a better angle gives you a clearer picture. Currently momentum on a daily chart has a downward angle and the CMF and RSI look a bit too moonish compared to the July 2013 bottom. Also, the heiken ashi daily candles look indecisive

Would you mind posting a picture?

Thx
W

it is a really cool site, there is also chat and you can discuss your opinions with professional traders who know what they are doing, no CCMF and no to da moon and no we are going down and bitcoin dying there, only analyzes 

[wendel]

Tyvm for for the advice.

I followed TERA's post on how different the former "capitualtions" worked out compared to this one.

Guess you also saw it:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=489756.msg5396709#msg5396709

There is a great divergence.

On the other hand bitcoin is now in the focus of state regulatories and more or less big investors.
This massive buying power might be to support the coin in public awareness.
If the coin would go down after all the troubles in the past weeks there won't be much confidence left.
My theory is that keeping up the coin makes it look strong even after Gox problems e.g.  

Thx
W

[MatTheCat]

MatTheCat,

You should get on tradingview.com and use more indicators. Those rudimentary bitcoinwisdom lines can be misleading, using a pitchfork with a better angle gives you a clearer picture. Currently momentum on a daily chart has a downward slope and the CMF and RSI look a bit too moonish compared to the July 2013 bottom. Also, the heiken ashi daily candles look indecisive

Will be sure to check it out......I am becoming more and more aware of how blindly I have been trading. I have actually done quite well, but considering my entering the market right at November parabolic phase, I am surely lucky to still have the shirt on my back that I went in with considering my technical ignorance and the ocean of shockingly bad advice that dominates places like this, which I have put/wasted a lot of emotional energy into biting back at, which in turn negatively affects the trading mindset. One thing is for sure, if I had even the little knowledge that I now have, I would have made a shit ton more, even what I have learned in the past two days would have given me at least double on my last two large good trades (crash and post crash bounce) and have avoided many of my stupid little shitty impulse/impatience driven trades that tend to damage my profits. Knowing TA is vital to success, especially in a market filed to the brim with vast swathes of dumb money that is totally ignorant to TA.....(just as I was).

Regarding my 'call'. I will make it clear that off the two alternatives that I presented, I favour a correction down to mid $400s as an extreme as there was a shit ton of volume at that point. However, because of the mass of liquidity that I seen sucked out the market by the 10K whale at $580, I am of the opinion that if Bitcoin can get above this level and confirm it as a support on strong volume, then that has to mean something...surely?

Also for the record, I don't think a new ATH is coming any time soon. If anything, I think we will be seeing a new low (lower than $400), but not any time soon, at least not 'soon' on a Bitcoin timescale.

[hlynur]

so this is just a try,
i'm dabbling around with several indicators. (even after half a year reading up the basics i feel like an absolute newb at TA, couldn't explain most of the indicators in depth, and i mostly just get a slight feeling what could happen)
this is how my chart looks like so far:



yea, i also include moonphases   ( i just love the two peaks during new moon)

i still find it difficult to find the right weighting of the several indicators.
4h MACD crossing is often mentioned for shorter timespans, MACD crossing overall seems to play a big role (besides RSI) according to many users' comments.
comparing the current situation (possible bearish post-GOX deathrattle phase that would take some more days,weeks...or even months who knows  )
with the bottom in July 2013 i still see a good chance to go lower.

can you guys recommend any other indicators?

@ Dalmar: what is the difference between the Chaikin Money Flow Indicator and the regular MFI?
 edit:  sorry for my lazyness, http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/chaikinoscillator.asp

[chessnut]

looks good to me. 630 is the confirmation I am looking for, that would terminate the entire wedge (EW analysis) but after that...... its not gonna be a straight line unfortunately. we will likely be around 500-700 for a long time.

[oda.krell]

Yeah, what solarguy already said: Mat, stop fucking up your trendlines. They're shaky grounds as it is (I use them myself, so I know how much they can resemble reading tea leaves), but once you declare random candle wicks "outliers" or some shit you're really giving up on any and all rigor.

That said, your actual point, I could maybe agree with. Said it myself, I at least see a proper chance now for a mid term reversal (up to a month, maybe longer). But for some reason, I'm more cautious than I ever was. To the point where I'm putting my declared goal, my holy goal, of unconditionally maximizing my coin stash (what rampion called the "land-grabbing phase") on the backburner.

My method, in the most general terms, is what I would probably call "pattern searching momentum trader"... meaning, I don't try to really predict trends, but I don't just follow them either... I try to jump onto them earlier than others, by also throwing in a bit of pattern recognition. Despite that, I don't give a shit about MACDs... or rather: they don't tell me anything important. The fast MACDs don't tell me with any kind of certainty whether a reversal is about to take place or not, and the slow ones confirm trends that I've already spotted long before.

What I'm getting at is: I'll wait it out this time. Not all in cash, hell no, but with a good share in USD still. My confirmation will come from a few 6h patterns I'm looking for, together with some volume metrics. The price chart looks okay, slightly more compatible with an impending upwards breakout rather than a continued decline, but the volume analysis doesn't look very good.

So honestly, I'm getting a bit tired of putting so much time into btc, that's why I decided to wait it out this time instead of hedging my bets by trading all the smaller swings before a mid term resolution. If it resolves upwards, fine. I'll buy in fast enough after I get a bit of confirmation. Not 580 already, like you seem to think, more in the 600 range. But it takes more than price action to convince me, volume should play along. And I'll take that hit to my coin stash if I must... I increased it by more than a fair share anyway earlier in this bear market anyway, so it's time I give back a bit to the market I guess. I'm such a saint, aren't I.

[MatTheCat]

Yeah, what solarguy already said: Mat, stop fucking up your trendlines. They're shaky grounds as it is (I use them myself, so I know how much they can resemble reading tea leaves), but once you declare random candle wicks "outliers" or some shit you're really giving up on any and all rigor.

It is true, when it comes to TA, I am complete novice (hence TA 101) and it also true that I am building my TA 101 interpretation on what I intuitively feel lies around the corner for Bitcoin. For the first time in a long time, I just don't have the Bitcoin fear that has made me a bear since the second $1000 - $1100 range (I never even knew what a double top was back then). I think Bitcoin right about now will prove a good investment in the medium term.

The position that I am taking, is that right now, I am shorting Bitcoin on Bitfinex. On Bitstamp where I keep the vast majority of my powder, I have buy in tranches from $505 down to $460 which would be down in the oversold range of the current long term trend, which I feel is due to reverse.

If however, we can get above 580 peaking at around 600 range before testing 580 as a support. Then I will be prepared to admit defeat on both my short and my sub $400 buy in tranches but acknowledge that a head n shoulders has occurred with two shoulders at $530 range (which we hit yesterday evening) and buy in on trend reversal confirmation.

If am totally 100% wrong, and my sub $400 buy-ins get triggered and Bitcoin crashes through $400 and into $300 range, then I should have good opportunity to cover my ass on the bounce. I will also have an leveraged short position which should also hedge me against any heavy losses should it transpire that my instincts on this one are wrong.

As I have said many times, I do believe in lower lows before any ATHs are found....just can't bring myself to believe that any lower low is just lingering around the corner.

[Obi-Wan Coinobi]

Yeah, what solarguy already said: Mat, stop fucking up your trendlines. They're shaky grounds as it is (I use them myself, so I know how much they can resemble reading tea leaves), but once you declare random candle wicks "outliers" or some shit you're really giving up on any and all rigor.

It is true, when it comes to TA, I am complete novice (hence TA 101) and it also true that I am building my TA 101 interpretation on what I intuitively feel lies around the corner for Bitcoin. For the first time in a long time, I just don't have the Bitcoin fear that has made me a bear since the second $1000 - $1100 range (I never even knew what a double top was back then). I think Bitcoin right about now will prove a good investment in the medium term.

The position that I am taking, is that right now, I am shorting Bitcoin on Bitfinex. On Bitstamp where I keep the vast majority of my powder, I have buy in tranches from $505 down to $460 which would be down in the oversold range of the current long term trend, which I feel is due to reverse.

If however, we can get above 580 peaking at around 600 range before testing 580 as a support. Then I will be prepared to admit defeat on both my short and my sub $400 buy in tranches but acknowledge that a head n shoulders has occurred with two shoulders at $530 range (which we hit yesterday evening) and buy in on trend reversal confirmation.

If am totally 100% wrong, and my sub $400 buy-ins get triggered and Bitcoin crashes through $400 and into $300 range, then I should have good opportunity to cover my ass on the bounce. I will also have an leveraged short position which should also hedge me against any heavy losses should it transpire that my instincts on this one are wrong.

As I have said many times, I do believe in lower lows before any ATHs are found....just can't bring myself to believe that any lower low is just lingering around the corner.

So you are thinking sub $400 is possible? By when?

[MatTheCat]

So you are thinking sub $400 is possible? By when?

July 23rd 2014, at 1.30pm GMT, just after the lunchtime news.

I don't frigging know. I have a hunch that a medium term trend reversal is on the cards but also have a hunch that we are yet to see the bottom proper.

[oda.krell]

Yeah, what solarguy already said: Mat, stop fucking up your trendlines. They're shaky grounds as it is (I use them myself, so I know how much they can resemble reading tea leaves), but once you declare random candle wicks "outliers" or some shit you're really giving up on any and all rigor.

It is true, when it comes to TA, I am complete novice (hence TA 101) and it also true that I am building my TA 101 interpretation on what I intuitively feel lies around the corner for Bitcoin. For the first time in a long time, I just don't have the Bitcoin fear that has made me a bear since the second $1000 - $1100 range (I never even knew what a double top was back then). I think Bitcoin right about now will prove a good investment in the medium term.

The position that I am taking, is that right now, I am shorting Bitcoin on Bitfinex. On Bitstamp where I keep the vast majority of my powder, I have buy in tranches from $505 down to $460 which would be down in the oversold range of the current long term trend, which I feel is due to reverse.

If however, we can get above 580 peaking at around 600 range before testing 580 as a support. Then I will be prepared to admit defeat on both my short and my sub $400 buy in tranches but acknowledge that a head n shoulders has occurred with two shoulders at $530 range (which we hit yesterday evening) and buy in on trend reversal confirmation.

If am totally 100% wrong, and my sub $400 buy-ins get triggered and Bitcoin crashes through $400 and into $300 range, then I should have good opportunity to cover my ass on the bounce. I will also have an leveraged short position which should also hedge me against any heavy losses should it transpire that my instincts on this one are wrong.

As I have said many times, I do believe in lower lows before any ATHs are found....just can't bring myself to believe that any lower low is just lingering around the corner.

I see. Looks like, minus the shorting, we're pretty much aligned, almost scarily aligned.

*logs into stamp, raises bids by 0.5 USD*

[derpinheimer]

Yeah, what solarguy already said: Mat, stop fucking up your trendlines. They're shaky grounds as it is (I use them myself, so I know how much they can resemble reading tea leaves), but once you declare random candle wicks "outliers" or some shit you're really giving up on any and all rigor.

It is true, when it comes to TA, I am complete novice (hence TA 101) and it also true that I am building my TA 101 interpretation on what I intuitively feel lies around the corner for Bitcoin. For the first time in a long time, I just don't have the Bitcoin fear that has made me a bear since the second $1000 - $1100 range (I never even knew what a double top was back then). I think Bitcoin right about now will prove a good investment in the medium term.

The position that I am taking, is that right now, I am shorting Bitcoin on Bitfinex. On Bitstamp where I keep the vast majority of my powder, I have buy in tranches from $505 down to $460 which would be down in the oversold range of the current long term trend, which I feel is due to reverse.

If however, we can get above 580 peaking at around 600 range before testing 580 as a support. Then I will be prepared to admit defeat on both my short and my sub $400 buy in tranches but acknowledge that a head n shoulders has occurred with two shoulders at $530 range (which we hit yesterday evening) and buy in on trend reversal confirmation.

If am totally 100% wrong, and my sub $400 buy-ins get triggered and Bitcoin crashes through $400 and into $300 range, then I should have good opportunity to cover my ass on the bounce. I will also have an leveraged short position which should also hedge me against any heavy losses should it transpire that my instincts on this one are wrong.

As I have said many times, I do believe in lower lows before any ATHs are found....just can't bring myself to believe that any lower low is just lingering around the corner.

So you are thinking sub $400 is possible? By when?

Sub 100 in a few months.

[MatTheCat]

Sub 100 in a few months.

I will worry about that in a few months then.

[YipYip]

You should get on tradingview.com and use more indicators. Those rudimentary bitcoinwisdom lines can be misleading, using a pitchfork with a better angle gives you a clearer picture. Currently momentum on a daily chart has a downward angle and the CMF and RSI look a bit too moonish compared to the July 2013 bottom. Also, the heiken ashi daily candles look indecisive

Would you mind posting a picture?

Thx
W

it is a really cool site, there is also chat and you can discuss your opinions with professional traders who know what they are doing, no CCMF and no to da moon and no we are going down and bitcoin dying there, only analyzes 

Nice site

I personally use TradeStation for my options & Forex

[Jeezy911]

This is some incredible Technical analysis, keep it coming!

[segeln]

.. supports starting at $530-$540 down to $460 as an absolute lower limit. No chance are we going any lower than that.

what is that based on ?
I hope not on the temporarily fall to 460 $.(would be TA 1.01 beta)

[Hypnoise]

those, who sold in expectation of further down trend and sitting now on fiat may feel quite nervous. there is a lot of coins waiting to be sold on higher rate and in case of any upward movement we may see some panic buying and those who sold will be buying exactly same coins back on higher rate.

[IamComrade]

none of this matters, because $100 bitcoin will happen soon