If someone buys Bitcoin today, they'll be lucky to see a 300%+ ROI.

[CrashX]

I completely agree with you, also I will like to add, that is expensive to get into Bitcoin, to go out a purchase a single BTC is next to impossible.

And yes, Im aware of Coinbase, ect. But Lets I wanted to buy something in the next 20mins  or place a Bet on GoWest website, in the next 20mins, If im new, I wouldn't be able to do that.

You will in a couple of months. This is being developed by several parties at the moment. Patience, grasshopper.

And why do you need a whole bitcoin? Buy a fraction of one.

Do you only buy gold by the pound?

Was using it as an Example, but I do place bets much more higher than 1 BTC

[Asrael999]

yes you do make really valid points there, but again who though that bitcoin could go to $1000 in one year when buying at $10 ....

It took $6.8 billion to get from $10 to $500.  It would take $63 billion to get to $5000/Bitcoin.  A lot of people are counting on Wall St. and institutional investors to make that happen, but $63 billion is A LOT of money, even for Wall St. How likely is it that investors will come up with $63 billion to put into a speculative currency?

$63 billion is peanuts to the global finance industry

Daily transactional volume in FX alone is USD 4 trillion.

[Mythul]

If you sodl instead of hodling you are going to have a bad time.

[F-bernanke]

If you sodl instead of hodling you are going to have a bad time.

[Cluster2k]

The funny thing is if you present the case that a bitcoin buyer will 'only' see a 300% return on their investment within the next few years to a professional main stream investor, you would only be reinforcing the image that bitcoin is one massive pump and dump scheme.  Just because we've seen returns in the thousands of percent doesn't mean it's normal or will be repeated in the future.

[UnDerDoG81]

If you sodl instead of hodling you are going to have a bad time.

Well, the OP is already a millionaire, so I dont think he will have a bad time 

[sgbett]

I completely agree with you, also I will like to add, that is expensive to get into Bitcoin, to go out a purchase a single BTC is next to impossible.

And yes, Im aware of Coinbase, ect. But Lets I wanted to buy something in the next 20mins  or place a Bet on GoWest website, in the next 20mins, If im new, I wouldn't be able to do that.

You will in a couple of months. This is being developed by several parties at the moment. Patience, grasshopper.

And why do you need a whole bitcoin? Buy a fraction of one.

Do you only buy gold by the pound?

oblig...

[lukasbradley]

Aside from all the possible counter-arguments, there's an implication here that 300% is a poor rate of return. Tell that to the average stock investor.

+100

[igorr]

No way, we have constantly fall 

[Cyberlight]

OP sold his coins, price already 10% UP.

[calmindifference]

http://www.thebitcointrader.com/2013/06/is-this-end-of-experiment.html

I thought the experiment ended mid 2013?

[chriswilmer]

For the record, I just sold all of my Bitcoins.  

I like posts like these... they usually get posted right at the start of the next of rally

Was I right? Or was I right? 

[Cyberlight]

For the record, I just sold all of my Bitcoins.  

I like posts like these... they usually get posted right at the start of the next of rally

Was I right? Or was I right? 

[freedomfighter]

Incredible.

Four pages of discussion on the future of Bitcoin and not a single one of you has made mention of infrastructure progress or worldwide adoption status. That blows me away. Allow me to say this once and for all, to all of you "day traders""

THE ONLY THING THAT MATTERS WHEN IT COMES TO THE FUTURE OF BITCOIN, IS THE INFRASTRUCTURE AND ADOPTION GOING ON AROUND THE WORLD.

Let that sink in.  Please.

If you aren't an expert on whats CURRENTLY happening with Bitcoin on a daily basis around the world, then you know *nothing* about Bitcoins future. It doesn't matter how good you think you are with graphs and charts and sweet trading jargon.  You know absolutely nothing.

It's always the guys with fewer than 100 posts saying how confident they are that the Gox thing is the end of Bitcoin.  You hopped on board when BTC was at $1,000 because you wanted to ride the highs and dips.  Make a quick buck.  You did very little learning about what Bitcoin is, and as a result you have zero confidence in its future, and no interest in the things which are true predicters of its long term success (adoption/propagation/infrastructure).  

Anyone who actually believes that Bitcoin is not going back up, has done zero research on Bitcoin's activity around the world right now. To me its just absolutely insane that there can be 4 pages of discussion on Bitcoin and not a single mention of this. The foundation to the current $550 price is because speculation is going down, and a substantial base is being built.  Why didn't Bitcoin die already?   How bad can the news get?   The whole world thinks Gox *is* Bitcoin and Gox is dead.  What lunatic believes that a $550 price after that news is not substantiated by anything?  

There is a whole world of Bitcoin adoption going on out there.  A whole world of hundreds of startups being created that provide financial services related to the protocol.  What are they all going to do?  Just drop bitcoin and throw it in the trash?   After years of planning and learning the system?  Experiencing its benefits and power?  You don't understand human psychology at all.  Anyone who looks only at the Gox situation, has blinders on.  And has absolutely no clue what Bitcoin is doing around the world right now.  And no understanding of Sociology, psychology of populations, or marketing.

Mark my words.  Bitcoin is going back up.  The fact that I even have to say that is astounding.  Its so obvious.

This has been my mantra from the start:   When I start to see the adoption levels decreasing, and infrastructure falling apart around the world, then I will begin to consider the downturn of Bitcoin.  As it stands, adoption levels are at an all time high, and infrastructure is as well.  How anyone can poo poo the Wall Street investments coming in the next month via SecondMarket is bewildering to me.  "ehhh.  might help.  im not convinced though".  LOL .... wow.

-B-

+1

few added points:

1) an early adopter advantage is not only because BTC is 1st. it is because it proved after 5 years that the network is strong, large, stood attacks and can now provide infrast. for the next stage

2) This is the next stage: The potential value and market cap is dependent upon growing use of the currency and code (bitcoin is also a code). There are no less than hundreds of start ups and serious smart money invested in and around the BTC network. This is very important since they create a different user experience and surrounding services that will drive adoption. this can ONLY happen since BTC is proven now and risks that are less speculative can be taken. Bitcoin 2.0 concepts such as XCP and more that are built on the BTC network also have a good chance to make it since it will make centralized networks less worthy to use.

these 2 points alone- and there are more are enough to drive trading volumes and usage in real markets from 300M last year (in actual commerce volume) to 300B or 3T at some point. want to guess what can 1 be worth then? (hint: the trades will be in MBTCs not BTCs)

good luck to all. 

[dyask]

If you sodl instead of hodling you are going to have a bad time.

Well, the OP is already a millionaire, so I dont think he will have a bad time 

Well the OP is worth a million less than he would have been!  (Price now way over $650)

[porcupine87]

For the record, I just sold all of my Bitcoins.  I bought my first Bitcoins in June 2011 at around $28 and continued buying all the way down to $2.  I actually bought about 8000 BTC around the time I made this post: http://www.thebitcointrader.com/2011/10/im-calling-bottom.html.

Needless to say, my return on investment was massive. We're talking 25,000% plus.  For someone to see that kind of ROI today, Bitcoin would have to hit $125,000 each, or a market cap of $2.6 trillion on 21 million coins. Which brings me to my first point:

There's significantly less incentive for someone to speculate on Bitcoin today.

Yes. Buying at 2$ after a long run from 30$ is not risky at all. When you are saying you bought 8000btc that is pocket money, you involved. A couple of grands.. But today? Only 300%? That's nothing. I'll rather buy some Facebook shares.
btw: let me guess, you sold all coins above 1000$. hihi

but is Bitcoin really a good store of value if 35% of Bitcoins are held in only 500 addresses?

When you consider that 300 of this addresses belongs to me and non of them is cold storage (of an exchange or other service), then no!

[JimboToronto]

I thought the experiment ended mid 2013?

I thought it was autumn 2011.

[Erdogan]

For the record, I just sold all of my Bitcoins. 

I like posts like these... they are usually get posted right at the start of the next of rally

give it 2-3 years, and it will be an excellent read.

on the other hand: exit strategy is a hard one to accomplish. all those years of tension. it sure is great to be part of it. but as price rises all of a sudden some are multiple $ millionaires. the game changes. become independent for the rest of our life or risk it all on a virtual thing still in beta? once you reached that it must be a great feeling to step out of crazy ccmf ride to da moon in some way.
at what price would you get tempted ? $ 10k, 30 k ? 

Exit strategy for bitcoin: What exit?

[oser41eric]

The top was not obvious until it was passed. I was hoping to see a return to the $800 level before I sold the remainder, but the Mt.Gox fiasco has motivated me to sell earlier.

Mt.Gox fiasco started when you had to wait months for your money. Fortunatelly I stopped using Mt.Gox.

The Bitcoin v2.0 part was funny indeed

[xavier]

I've been here since 2011 also. I have to admit, I think you're (OP) suffering from bear market syndrome.

Given where the world is going, I would not be surprised if we hit $1,000 coin again. Having said that, bitcoin will continue to be highly volatile, so we could well go down to $100 in the meantime.

RE: Ripple / Ethereum - these new coins may or may not be better than bitcoin, but bitcoin was the 1st crypto-coin and it will always have that 'first mover advantage' as a crypto-currency, as being the most heard of and used crypto-currency. Besides, the innovations offered by all the alt-coins, ripple and ethereum are not (yet) really substantial enough to cause people to drop bitcoin and move to something else. The innovation that satoshi created (bitcoins vs. paper money) is head and shoulders above anything added by any alt-coin.  Ethereum in particular has a long way to do. Ripple I am not so sure of and have not investigated fully (particularly as the source code was not available for a long time). However, the kind of scenario that would see bitcoin go alot higher would also drive the prices of all alt-coins higher. Even if bitcoin is superseded in the long term, it will not happen overnight and there is still profit potential remaining in holding bitcoin.

I have to admit that it is a little crazy to sell every coin. However, I have been in and out of BTC over the last few years (would have been better just to hold of course) ... so I know your feelings and motivations.

The market is always open however. The thing that worries me the most is if bank accounts are locked down (like is happening in Ukraine these past few days) it would become very difficult to get money to exchanges.

Perhaps I am naive but I still think the best days of bitcoin are ahead. Although I agree with you that I don't think crazy 3,000% returns are possible, I  still think it's feasible that bitcoin could go into the thousands of dollars again. That, and the possibility/probability that FIAT money may evaporate or be confiscated, keeps me invested in bitcoin.

However, if you're worried about bitcoin and would rather have something more historically stable, you can always buy gold instead. In the event of economic problems, bitcoin, gold and alt-coins will retain value together.