"the 400 bottom is in" - sounds like a news presentation. And I made this call the day it happened.
Please link me to it.
Large buying activity on stamp in 200-400 blocks. Walls getting demolished. Looks like bottom.
Just think 2 months ago when btc was trading at $1000 and all the tiger direct, overstock, etc. was happening (now there is even more adoption than then). If someone told you... in 2 months from now, you'll be able to buy at $400/btc on bitstamp, but DONT DO IT, because mtgox will be closed. What would you think?
This is probably a good of a time as any to just make a long term investment in bitcoin or at least take a starter position (with money you can afford to lose) and then look away from it. It might go lower than this but if btc survives then it will probably be back above these levels rather quickly. Then you might have missed not only the bottom but this level also, and you'll feel really dumb. It might even be better than the risks involved with having fiat on exchanges at this point. If bitcoin REALLY crumbles then the exchanges might go down with it and youll have nothing. Also withdraw enough fiat so you can have a comfortable life and be satisfied with your winnings in the event that that bitcoin does crumble. I'm thinking of perhaps allocating as follows:
40% cold storage.
20% fiat on exchanges.
40% withdrawal (20% fiat and 20% gold)
---Then later...
Thankfully there are things I can OBJECTIVELY look at. Either this was bottom or we are 1 step away from it.
Here's the evidence I have so far that 400 was (probably) bottom:
1. The VOLUME: Bitstamp did 118K BTC of volume in a day. This type of volume hasn't been seen since the bottom in December. Huobi also did a record volume of >300K but Huobi might be irrelevant.
2. The trends support this being possible bottom: including the horizontal support at 380 and the long term logarithmic support somewhere between 300 and 500 (each of us have a different opinion about where this trend is).
3. The order book: The bitstamp order book now looks like a monster of giant continuous bidwalls against a tiny ask. Everything is consistent and there are no more 'cliffs' for the price to fall off of. The amount of fiat on there increased from 8M to 22M (an ATH) overnight.
4. The hammer candle on the daily chart.
5. The recovery right back above the 530 low that took two weeks to break.
6. The amount of overextended short interest that was on bitfinex.
7. The weekly chart pattern consistency with all previous bitcoin rallies (except 2011 bubble)
wait for the weekend. If BTC is going to take a hammering it will be over the weekend.
I can honestly see it down to 400-450 with then a slow climb back up to about 600.
The main reason for this is the money wants to make money and to do this BTC needs to fall before some big buys go in.
look at BTC-E realy small amounts of BTC being traded for quite big swings
Sub 450 is unlikely. Too much volume.
This would make for a somewhat more realistic bottom. (though it still looks a little short to me overall)
Any predictions on when the breakout is going to come and is it going to be up or down ?
Short term breakout down. Then midterm breakout up.
