If I were the dev and I was sitting on a good $700 million worth of coin, no matter how pure my original intentions were, there is just no way I wouldn't be quietly selling off the premine. Of course people will notice eventually, and the price would drop, but maybe I'd make 10 or 20 million in the process and be setup for life. Maybe the dev is an honourable guy, but there are few who would turn down that kind of cash.
Add to that the fact that the guy is anonymous. Where's the downside for him? Would there be any actually negative repercussions, apart from angry people in internet forums? I mean, if the guy actually follows through with the plan to distribute the coins, he's a huge sucker.
The Dev isn't going to just cold dump the Iceland shares it would destroy the price immediately. At any point on cryptsy there are only $100k in open orders. So what he gets 100k by dumping shares, would be stupid.
Also, there are only 100k or so coins that belong to anyone. So the current market cap is a fraud. That doesn't mean the coin is a fraud, but the valuation is completely bogus, similar to Ripple.
The valuation on coinmarketcap alone is driving the frenzy right now, mostly irrational thinkers. However, that was the appeal of Ripple as well and it is till hanging around.
The coin compared to Doge, LTC, BTC has a non-existent community and user base. The Dev has brilliantly designed a solution for this by targeting a small audience and promising them their coins.
So what are the likely scenarios:
1. Massive mining of this currently incredibly profitable coin will eventually catch up with hyper speculation and crash the price to where it probably should be.
2. Market cap keeps fresh blood coming in at a pace that holds off mining until the Icelanders all have their coins.
I am going with Option 2 as there are only 100k in circulation right now and there are far more speculators than buyers.
So I think the price will continue up and so will the mining power. THENNNNN at the airdrop.
After the airdrop I actually think there will not be a massive sell off unless the Dev is a complete scammer and dumps the premine, which I doubt at this time. Think of how long it will take for people to register their coins, get their coins, get a wallet, figure out how to sell them, and then sell them. Not going to happen quickly.
If Dev keeps his promise, we will see a world first as an entire nation has a signficant amount of value in new money. I would like to have seen the Dev program in a permanent distribution to Icelanders from fees.
I don't see there being enough coins owned by miners to dump faster than adopters....
