Uncertainty of Bitcoin's Value

[PsylockReborn]

We all know that no one can really predict the value of bitcoin. The volatility is to high and we could lose our investment even in a day. With the bloodbath that we experienced few weeks back there are lots of doubts and fears coming in. Is bitcoin's value really manipulated by whales? or its just that, most of the investors shifted to a different investment vehicle?

I really think the adoption of bitcoin is increasing everyday, but why is the value is not going on a bull? Please enlighten me guys! Thanks!

[SventraPapere]

Poor bitcoin in the truest sense of the word is strangled from all sides.Until everything calms down and it will be left in its place for a very long time.Its cost is influenced by many factors other than the purchase.One of the main is its political uncertainty.As soon as it becomes clear to him at the level of the law.And I think that everything should be fine, because I see no reason for a different turn of events.The remaining bitcoins will be snapped up like hot cakes and the price will just skyrocket!!

[figmentofmyass]

We all know that no one can really predict the value of bitcoin. The volatility is to high and we could lose our investment even in a day. With the bloodbath that we experienced few weeks back there are lots of doubts and fears coming in. Is bitcoin's value really manipulated by whales? or its just that, most of the investors shifted to a different investment vehicle?

I really think the adoption of bitcoin is increasing everyday, but why is the value is not going on a bull? Please enlighten me guys! Thanks!

these are just natural market cycles. pull out a long term bitcoin price chart from 2010-2018, and switch it to logarithmic scale. you notice how it goes up and down over and over, but the long term trend continues upward?

you can think of that long term trend as the "mean." what happens during the bubble cycles is that buying demand skyrockets faster than supply can come to market. the price goes up "too far too fast." at the top of the bull cycle (in this case near $20k), there are usually very few buyers left, and the order books are thin. so price swings back down like a pendulum. then you enter a distribution cycle---a correction or downtrend---where early investors and traders need to take profits and exit the market, while late investors are trapped in losing positions. both groups pressure the price downward. we are "reverting to the mean" as stock traders call it, going back to the long term trend mentioned earlier.

[SventraPapere]

Poor bitcoin in the truest sense of the word is strangled from all sides.Until everything calms down and it will be left in its place for a very long time.Its cost is influenced by many factors other than the purchase.One of the main is its political uncertainty.As soon as it becomes clear to him at the level of the law.And I think that everything should be fine, because I see no reason for a different turn of events.The remaining bitcoins will be snapped up like hot cakes and the price will just skyrocket!!

[budiarmed]

It has become a risk to have bitcoin, bitcoin can't increase every day and continue to increase, the market will continue to change based on the number of requests and offers. You must have the knowledge to gain profits in every market movement.

[crypto_Butterfly]

We all know that no one can really predict the value of bitcoin. The volatility is to high and we could lose our investment even in a day. With the bloodbath that we experienced few weeks back there are lots of doubts and fears coming in. Is bitcoin's value really manipulated by whales? or its just that, most of the investors shifted to a different investment vehicle?

I really think the adoption of bitcoin is increasing everyday, but why is the value is not going on a bull? Please enlighten me guys! Thanks!

Because of the bulls manipulating the price, But even then I am sure the price will recover once they want a nice decent prifit for selling off their coins.

[franky1]

bitcoin value Vs price

imagine bitcoins price like a bathtub of water and bubbles.
the underlying waterline is the LOW/bottom price of btc over a period. this is the line people refuse to go below or they collectively drown.
this bottom line is made up of acquisition cost agreement, which is tested over time by those selling and reaching a low no one wants to cross
so lets deal with acquisitions costs. (i cant be assed to repeat myself so ill just quote myself)

now here is why bitcoin wont go down
acquisition costs
1. mining. right now miners have to buy equipment and pay electric to acquire fresh coins. the cost of this is, based on this months LOW hashrate of 42exa(5th sept) =$5670.. only the mining pool that mined coins at 42exa's block would sell their coins for $5670 to just break even. no mining pool will sell their coins at a loss so the other coins they mine this month at higher hashrates would have a higher cost average.

2. trading. since november 2017 and retested end of june 2018. no trader has sold below $5800. there has been 10 months of oppertunity for anyone who is happy to sell below $5800 to actually sell below $5800... no one has.
as for those that did sell at $5800 in november and june they sold, they are out they took their funds and left. the buyer of those coins now has a cost of $5800 and they wont stupidly sell for less.

3. looking at the UTXO data over 65% of coins have moved/changed hands since the $5,800 price point. and they have not sold below $5800. the other 35% are older coins. which some say could be lost keys, held in trust/for retirement. locked in bankrupcy legal blackholes(mtgox). so in short 2 thirds of the community dont want to sell for less because they have ben active enough to show they had oppertunity. but have not sold when they had the chance


4. so since the november and retested a few times. people with coins and mining coins have to a majority of over 65% collectively agreed they wont sell below $5800.

now lets imagine that the $5800 could be broken.
the idea is that of the 35% that didnt move/spend/sell even though their costs are below $5800 is because they:
have not checked the price for a year and didnt realise the price
lost their keys.
not ready to sell yet

now we all know that the 35% doesnt belong to one person. and if it was a group and they wanted to collectively collude. they would have done so already. they had many chances to group up.
but if one person had 5000btc to sell down the market volume of bitfinex to $5800 or 2000btc to sell down the market of GDAX. before they even get to sell their last coin. the market buyers wishing to buy over $5800 would be grabbing coins before 5800 and the price wont get to what the seller wants to push it down to, in short it would flash crash and then the buyers will see it as a discount opportunity and recover the price back up.

it would require alot of coins to tank the price and then perpetually keep it down to fight off the buyers who will be counteracting those efforts.
this worry is the whole thing about the "what if MTGox,, what if satoshi" .. well as i said earlier. they have had plenty of chances while the price is above $5800 to sell

but because 10 months of opportunity has shown no desire to do it and the mining costs show pools wont. id say thats a good case and percentage we wont see the bottom fall out of the market

so that explains the waterline (bottom line no one wants to cross


as for the volatile stuff.. well the november-december 2017 was stir of the water to create lots of bubbles to make it appear the bath is more filled then it is. but it was not sustainable and once people started reacting to the bubble period. they all popped and corrected down to the waterline again

the majority of those buying in during the $4k-$20k were actually institutional money. buying up coins to settle up and buy coins to pay out a contracted tranche of funds to the devs for reaching their contractual duties of segwit by mid november.

[jjacob]

We all know that no one can really predict the value of bitcoin. The volatility is to high and we could lose our investment even in a day. With the bloodbath that we experienced few weeks back there are lots of doubts and fears coming in. Is bitcoin's value really manipulated by whales? or its just that, most of the investors shifted to a different investment vehicle?

I really think the adoption of bitcoin is increasing everyday, but why is the value is not going on a bull? Please enlighten me guys! Thanks!

You should stop worrying about 'investors' abandoning Bitcoin. If the price of Bitcoin drops due to whales dumping, the price really won't stay down for ever. It is going to be a temporary blip, before the price recovers. If some people decide to shift to alternate investment vehicles, they really won't be missed by the Bitcoin community.

[franky1]

if people want to work out mining costs
before june 2018 take the hashrate in exa and multiply it by 277(old gen asics cost)
after june 2018 take the hashrate in exa and multiply it by 135(current batch asics cost)

i know alot of people will have lots of different electricity costs but based on the main mining done by farms who can get the best deals(below 5c) then the important thing is the ones that can kep the costs down to have the lowest cost prices and thus more inclined to sell for less and still breakeven/profit.

oh and as for the next gen asics. take the exa predictions of october+ and multiply it by 65(next gen asics cost)
im hoping that by november once the next gen 7nm asics are released installed and mining. that the hashrate is above 90exa to counter the new gen rigs of that period to keep inline with the $5800 LOW/bottomline for 2018

[xcajun21]

First and most important is to set stop loss. If you go long (buy) or go short (sell), look into your mind and see where would you exit the position, both in stop loss and in profit.

The value of bitcoin might not go in a bull since most of the buying in 2017 before parabolic run, was made around 1000$ - 3000$ and at a high of probably 6000$. But remember, back then we had lots of volatility as well, but since many traders were new (myself included) we were lucky to have entered (partially) the market when it was on a bull run cycle. It's said that the parabolic run always ends with bear cycle. I think whales are essential to the market but they are also very, very highly invested on taking the slice of the best cake. If a whale enters the market, he would buy at 3600-4000 and look for long term of lets say 8000$ +

[HarmonyA]

Maybe there is uncertainties in the mind of investors. The reason for every investment is to make profit. When investors foresee higher risk of their investment, they pull out because it is better to loose 10% or 15% than lost 80%.  We will continue to witness this because of the regulations that surround cryptocurrency, and short term price prediction that are not achievable. I also feel that whales are manipulating the market to achieve profit.

[pooya87]

the "bloodbath" that you are talking about was an altcoin dump, it had nothing to do with bitcoin. there may have been some sell pressure in bitcoin market because of it but that's about it. price is still in the same range that it has always been for the past 4-5 months and is staying there.

as for manipulation, it exists but it is not the controlling factor to determine the price. in other words even with 0 manipulation price would have acted similarly, meaning a big drop after the bubble then staying stable at the bottom without rise then the rally. the only difference would have been a smaller bubble and a much smaller drop, possibly not even below $10k.

[nayya88]

We all know that no one can really predict the value of bitcoin. The volatility is to high and we could lose our investment even in a day. With the bloodbath that we experienced few weeks back there are lots of doubts and fears coming in. Is bitcoin's value really manipulated by whales? or its just that, most of the investors shifted to a different investment vehicle?

I really think the adoption of bitcoin is increasing everyday, but why is the value is not going on a bull? Please enlighten me guys! Thanks!

bitcoin is very volatile and price movements are influenced by buyers and sellers, so it's very possible if there are big players or large groups to manipulate prices, but I'm sure even large groups won't make prices drop too long, they will definitely raise prices again to their advantage, ,
but all of this is just my opinion that is uncertain ...
my advice is smart to assess prices and be patient to get maximum benefits

[Joeyvicky]

It seems things are not falling in good places for bitcoin as we know of and for the uncertainty nature of bitcoin recently is making alot frustrated but i just wantto encourage us all not to give up but have hope that things will turn i/out good for bitcoin and who soever whales controling will be a thing of the past.

[tuturutmunding]

ups and downs of prices that often occur at once caused by many causes. like banning the use of bitcoin is announced by countries that have a strong economy and that will make bitcoin fall in price because it will affect the lack of adoption of bitcoin that is what makes people feel hesitant when taking steps to invest

[Sealis]

Bitcoin as of the moment is caught in the struggles of investors and companies who sold theirs quickly because of the bans announced by various countries. This caused the value of bitcoin to drop but this doesn't mean that bitcoin will die. Besides, this is the market. Panicking over something like this shows the inexperience of people and their inability to view things from a long-term perspective based on various factors. If you judge that BTC will die just because of a drop like this, then you should probably leave already.

[tonyja2017]

We all know that no one can really predict the value of bitcoin. The volatility is to high and we could lose our investment even in a day. With the bloodbath that we experienced few weeks back there are lots of doubts and fears coming in. Is bitcoin's value really manipulated by whales? or its just that, most of the investors shifted to a different investment vehicle?

I really think the adoption of bitcoin is increasing everyday, but why is the value is not going on a bull? Please enlighten me guys! Thanks!

Every development takes a long time. Larger businesses are now accepting Bitcoin payments because they understand the real value of Bitcoin in the future. Bitcoin prices will soon better the next time and we should believe in it.

[Faeton]

The price of bitcoin is in many ways unpredictable. It is also most likely that she is manipulated by whales. However, they do this in order to make a profit. If we understand the mechanics of this process, we can understand that there is nothing dangerous in such manipulation. Whales can not hold a market with low prices for a long time, otherwise they themselves will lose profit. Therefore, the growth of the market will be vseravno. We just need patience.

[Hitesh shaveta ohri]

As we all know price of bitcoin fluctuate . it will take time to stable because every development takes  time. Larger businesses like Samsung are now accepting Bitcoin payments because they understand the real value of Bitcoin in the future. Bitcoin prices will soon better.

[DenSamui]

I think that bitcoin is quite stable and if we look at the market chart from 2010 to 2018 we will be able to see this, that the gravel then falls, then it rises and now the same thing happens.