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Market Fundamental Analysis for July 4, 2025 USDJPY

Events to pay attention to today:

02:30 EET. JPY - Change in household spending

USDJPY:

The Japanese yen (JPY) is rising during Friday's Asian session after the release of strong domestic household spending data, which leaves room for further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). This, along with a moderate decline in the US dollar (USD), is pushing the USD/JPY pair away from its weekly high of around 145.20-145.25, reached on Thursday in response to optimistic US employment data.

Meanwhile, investors remain concerned that global trade tensions caused by US President Donald Trump's customs policy could complicate the BoJ's efforts to normalise monetary policy. In addition, the prevailing risk appetite may limit the growth of the safe-haven JPY and help limit losses for the USD/JPY pair. Traders may also refrain from aggressive bets on the direction of the market amid an expected decline in liquidity due to the US holiday.

Trading recommendation: BUY 144.50, SL 144.30, TP 145.40

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[FreshForex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for July 7, 2025 EURUSD

Events to pay attention to today:

12:00 EET. EUR - Change in retail sales

EURUSD:

The EUR/USD exchange rate is falling after rising in the previous session, trading at around 1.1780 on Monday during the Asian session. The pair is struggling due to renewed tariff concerns sparked by comments from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Later in the day, data on retail sales in the eurozone and industrial production in Germany will be released.

Treasury Secretary Bessent said on Sunday that US President Donald Trump would send letters to some trading partners warning that tariffs could return to 2 April levels on 1 August if no progress is made in trade negotiations. He explained that 1 August is not a new deadline for introducing tariffs, but suggested that it could give trading partners more time to review tariff rates.

In addition, Commerce Secretary Howard Lute confirmed that the new tariffs will take effect on 1 August. Lute added that Trump is currently finalising specific rates and agreements and may send 12 or 15 letters on tariffs on Monday. He also indicated that trade agreements or letters with most countries would be ready by 9 July.

The European Union (EU) Commission announced that it was close to concluding a framework trade agreement with the United States (US) to avoid the reintroduction of aggressive tariffs before the 9 July deadline. In addition, Bloomberg reported that ‘some automakers and European Union capitals are pushing for an agreement with Trump that would lower tariffs in exchange for increased investment in the US.’

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1760, SL 1.1780, TP 1.1660

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Market Fundamental Analysis for July 8, 2025 GBPUSD

GBPUSD:

Sterling clawed back to 1.3650 after a two-day slide, yet upside momentum is fragile amid another round of tariff threats from Washington. The White House has announced duties of up to 40 percent on imports from fourteen countries; although implementation is deferred to 1 August, the flare-up in trade tensions boosts demand for the dollar as a defensive asset.

Domestic risks compound the pressure on the pound. Treasury data show social-welfare and infrastructure spending running ahead of plan, and Chancellor Rachel Reeves has hinted that the autumn Budget may include higher taxes to cover the shortfall. At the same time, several major banks—including HSBC and Deutsche Bank—forecast three Bank of England rate cuts before year-end, eroding the gilt yield premium over Treasuries.

With external trade headwinds and internal fiscal uncertainty aligned, GBP/USD retains a bearish fundamental backdrop. Barring a major positive surprise from London, the pair is likely to re-test support at 1.3575, while 1.3680 marks the invalidation level for short positions.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3635, SL 1.3680, TP 1.3575

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Trade smarter: 3 scripts that change the game!

Scripts are small programs for MetaTrader 5 designed to perform a specific action — like partially closing trades, reversing positions, or automatically calculating SL and TP levels.

They don’t run on every tick or follow the chart. Instead, they execute only when launched — making them perfect for automating everyday trading actions. Best of all, scripts eliminate human error: no typos in pending orders, no missed inputs, just precise and instant execution.

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1. Partial Close Buy Orders

The Partial Close Buy Orders script gives you flexibility in managing open Buy positions by allowing you to take partial profits. It’s a powerful tool for gradually exiting trades, minimizing risk, and locking in gains.

How it helps your trading:
   •   Lock in profits during uncertainty: If the price moves in your favor but you anticipate a pullback or market hesitation, you can close part of your position to secure gains.
   •   Reduce exposure: By closing a portion of your trade, you decrease the size of your open position, lowering potential losses if the market turns against you.
   •   Optimize exits: You can scale out of trades at different take-profit levels to make the most of price movements.

2. Auto SL/TP by Risk:Reward

The Auto SL/TP by Risk:Reward script automatically sets Stop Loss (SL) and Take Profit (TP) based on your predefined Risk:Reward ratio. It’s an essential tool for structured trading and smart capital management.

How it helps your trading:
   •   Consistent risk control: Always know your risk relative to your potential gain. For example, a 1:2 ratio means you’re aiming to earn $2 for every $1 you risk.
   •   Improve long-term profitability: Even with a lower win rate, applying a consistent Risk:Reward strategy can lead to net profits over time.
   •   Faster trade execution: Once in a trade, no need to manually calculate or set SL/TP — the script does it for you instantly.

3. Basket Closer Profit/Loss

Basket Closer Profit/Loss is your emergency stop for total account risk control. This script automatically closes all open trades (both winning and losing) when your account reaches a predefined profit or loss threshold.

How it helps your trading:
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These scripts are completely free and ready to download: Partial Close Buy Orders, Auto SL/TP by Risk:Reward, Basket Closer Profit/Loss

To install:
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[FreshForex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for July 9, 2025 USDJPY

Event to watch today:

21:00 EET. USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes

USDJPY:

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The yen has carved out a two-week low after Washington confirmed it will impose 25 percent tariffs on Japanese goods from 1 August and warned of mirror measures if Tokyo retaliates. Political uncertainty ahead of the 20 July upper-house election is exacerbating capital outflows into dollar-denominated assets.

Monetary-policy differentials also work against the yen: ten-year U.S. Treasury yields are holding above 4.4 percent, while the Bank of Japan continues its ultra-easy stance and signals unlimited JGB purchases to cap yields. Fed-funds futures now price in fewer than 50 basis points of easing by year-end, whereas the probability of a BoJ rate hike before March 2026 remains below 30 percent.

On the spot market the pair has secured a foothold above 146.70 and is approaching the psychological 147.00 threshold, driven by the strong dollar–weak yen combo. Absent any sign of FX intervention from Japan’s Ministry of Finance and with U.S.–Japan trade tensions unresolved, USDJPY looks poised to challenge the June peak at 148.00 in the coming sessions.

Trading recommendation: BUY 147.05, SL 146.45, TP 148.00

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[FreshForex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for July 10, 2025 EURUSD

Event to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD - Initial Jobless Claims

EURUSD:

The EUR/USD pair is strengthening amid ongoing uncertainty regarding US-China trade relations and ahead of new US inflation data. The US dollar shows mixed dynamics: on one hand, it is supported by expectations for Treasury yields, while on the other, it is pressured by the Federal Reserve’s dovish stance.

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In the eurozone, the key factor remains the policy of the European Central Bank, which recently lowered its key rate and revised inflation forecasts for 2025 and 2026 downward. This signals an intention to support the region’s economy and conclude the current easing cycle.

At the time of writing, the EUR/USD rate is 1.1744, reflecting a moderate rise of the euro against the US dollar. Fundamentally, the pair is supported by expectations of further recovery in the eurozone economy and possible dollar weakening if the Fed maintains its current policy.

Trade recommendation: BUY 1.1745, SL 1.1720, TP 1.1845

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[FreshForex]

$112,000 per Bitcoin — a new all-time high

On July 9, 2025, Bitcoin reached a new all-time high, breaking above $112,000 and surpassing its previous record from May 22.

The market capitalization of the leading cryptocurrency exceeded $2.17 trillion — making it the fifth-largest traded asset globally, on par with Alphabet shares.

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What’s driving Bitcoin’s surge?

Institutional demand and ETF inflows: The main growth driver remains institutional interest. Since April, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen over $370 billion in net inflows. Funds from BlackRock and others now manage nearly $13 billion in BTC assets.
Corporate holdings: Over 140 public companies now hold Bitcoin on their balance sheets, totaling around 850,000 BTC worth $94 billion. MicroStrategy alone holds 597,325 BTC valued at roughly $42.4 billion.
Macro backdrop: Investor risk appetite is rising, and Bitcoin is once again viewed as a hedge asset. The rally also aligns with tech stock growth, led by Nvidia — now the first $4 trillion company.
Regulatory momentum: Progress on crypto legislation — including the GENIUS Act — is bringing legal clarity. The Trump administration’s initiative to build strategic BTC reserves is further boosting confidence.
Market dominance: Bitcoin continues to outperform. It’s up over 17% year-to-date, while most altcoins have lost as much as 70%. BTC now commands over 64% of the total crypto market cap.

Bitcoin’s new record cements its role as the top digital asset. FreshForex analysts recommend traders make the most of current market conditions.

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Market Fundamental Analysis for July 11, 2025 GBPUSD

An event to watch out for today:

09:00 EET. GBP - GDP change

GBPUSD:

The pound remains within a range, hovering around 1.3550: uncertainty surrounding new US tariffs is exacerbating global risks and supporting demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset.

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The fundamental backdrop for sterling is being undermined by a combination of weak domestic macro data and fiscal challenges. The UK budget is under pressure due to the expansion of social programs, while the Bank of England's Financial Stability Committee is warning of the possibility of a sharp decline in the value of risky assets.

Concerns about GDP growth prospects and the Bank of England's limited room for maneuver on interest rates are intensifying amid expectations of a prolonged “hawkish” stance by the Fed. In the absence of positive surprises in macro statistics, the base target shifts to 1.3475, while a return above 1.3600 is only possible with a sharp reversal in Fed rhetoric or easing tariff pressure.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3550, SL 1.3580, TP 1.3475

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[FreshForex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for July 14, 2025 USDJPY

USDJPY:

The pair has printed a one-month high at 147.45, supported by two key drivers: the yield spread between 10-year Treasuries (≈ 4.4 %) and JGBs (≈ 0.85 %) has stretched to roughly 355 bp, and fresh threats from the White House to impose 25 % tariffs on Japanese autos are fuelling defensive hedging in dollars among Japanese corporates.

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Monetary divergence also favours the greenback. After a token hike to 0.15 % in April, the Bank of Japan has signalled a protracted pause amid weakening domestic demand, whereas the Fed keeps its target at 5.25–5.50 %. That makes USD-denominated carry trades attractive and feeds demand for USDJPY.

Data divergence completes the picture: Japan’s Q1 GDP contracted 0.2 % q/q, while the University of Michigan consumer-confidence index in the U.S. is holding above 52. The resulting flow of capital into higher-yielding U.S. assets underpins the pair’s upward trend.

Trading recommendation: BUY 147.45, SL 146.35, TP 148.45

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[FreshForex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for July 15, 2025 EURUSD

Event to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD - Consumer Price Index

EURUSD:

The single currency remains under pressure from an escalating tariff standoff between Washington and Brussels. The White House has confirmed its readiness to impose 30‑percent duties on all EU imports from 1 August, while the European Commission has prepared a mirror‑response package worth €72 billion. Risk‑off sentiment is boosting demand for the safe‑haven dollar: after dropping to a two‑week low of 1.1660, EURUSD managed only a brief rebound and continues to trade below the key 1.1700 area.

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The key focus for investors is today’s release of the June U.S. Consumer Price Index. The consensus calls for CPI to accelerate by 0.3 % m/m and 2.7 % y/y, reinforcing fears that the Federal Reserve will delay the start of its easing cycle. U.S. Treasury yields are echoing those concerns—the 10‑year benchmark holds around 4.46 %—which further supports the dollar by making it more attractive relative to the euro.

There are no market‑moving releases scheduled in the euro area today and the ECB’s recent 25‑bp rate cut—along with its lower inflation forecasts for 2025‑2026—points to a dovish policy path. Together, the rate differential and tariff risks provide a fundamental backdrop for the pair to slide toward 1.1630. A decisive daily close above 1.1730 would invalidate the bearish scenario.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1700, SL 1.1730, TP 1.1630

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[FreshForex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for July 16, 2025 GBPUSD

Event to Watch Today:

15:30 EET. USD – Producer Price Index

09:00 EET. GBP – Consumer Price Index

GBPUSD:

GBP/USD remains under pressure, trading around 1.3380. Fundamental factors continue to shape a bearish outlook:

Economic Risks: Recession threat in the UK and weak GDP growth (0.1% for Q2) heighten expectations of a Bank of England rate cut in August.

Trade Conflicts: The introduction of tariffs on EU and Mexican imports increases capital flows into the dollar.

Yields: The gap between US Treasury yields and UK government bond yields remains a key driver for the pair.

Key support level is 1.3350. A break below this mark will open the way toward 1.3200. A rise above 1.3420 would be a signal to cancel the bearish scenario.

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Trade Recommendation: SELL 1.3380, SL 1.3400, TP 1.3300

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[FreshForex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for July 17, 2025 USDJPY

Event to pay attention today:

15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Claims

USDJPY:

Dollar-yen is holding near 148.40 as opposing forces balance: a modest greenback pullback versus higher Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields, with the 10-year note flirting with 1.6 %, its highest level since 2008. The richer JGB yield supports the yen’s safe-haven allure, yet the U.S.–Japan 10-year spread remains wide enough to underpin the dollar.

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Investors have trimmed Fed-tightening expectations: the dovish Beige Book tone and soft PPI reinforce wagers on one or two cuts by year-end. A Reuters poll shows most economists still anticipate no Bank of Japan rate hike before end-2025; the BoJ is merely scaling back JGB purchases, leaving policy ultra-loose.

Tomorrow’s trade-balance release and lingering tariff risk should keep safe-haven flows active, but absent a hawkish surprise from Tokyo, even a modest uptick in U.S. yields could lift USDJPY back toward the 149.25 target.

Trade recommendation: BUY 148.40, SL 147.90, TP 149.25

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[FreshForex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for July 18, 2025 EURUSD

EURUSD:

The US dollar remains the sole beneficiary of a series of upside macro surprises: June retail sales rose 0.6 % m/m, annual CPI accelerated to 3.6 %, and initial jobless claims fell to a three‑month low. The data strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep the policy range at 5.25 – 5.50 % through year‑end, lifting 10‑year Treasury yields towards 4.50 %. Against this backdrop, investors rotate into the greenback as the most liquid defensive asset, pushing EURUSD back towards the 1.16 area and making 1.1630 vulnerable to further downside.

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In the eurozone, fundamentals remain soft. German inflation flat‑lined in June, while recent surveys point to stagnation in Italian and Spanish manufacturing. Uncertainty over possible 30 % US tariffs on key EU goods adds to the pressure, with a decision expected by late July. Until the trade outlook clears and the 2‑year Bund‑UST spread (‑215 bp) narrows, upside in the single currency looks limited.

A key support zone sits at 1.1530 – the level where strong corporate import demand emerged in February. A decisive break would reinforce bearish momentum and expose the March lows.

Trade idea: SELL 1.1630, SL 1.1680, TP 1.1530

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[FreshForex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for July 21, 2025 GBPUSD

Event to Watch Today:

17:00 EET. USD - Leading Indicators Index

GBPUSD:

Sterling drifts toward 1.3410 as the market almost fully prices a Bank of England rate cut on 7 August. Odds of easier policy rose after unemployment climbed to 4.7 % and wage growth slowed to 5.0 %, pointing to a cooling labour market and heightening fears of a hard landing for the UK economy.

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Soft domestic data compound the pressure: GDP has contracted for two consecutive months, and industrial output is struggling with supply‑chain friction as tariff disputes ripple through global trade. With gilts offering lower yields relative to US Treasuries, international investors have little incentive to hold the pound, turning any uptick in GBPUSD into a selling window for bears.

The dollar, meanwhile, enjoys steady haven demand amid escalating trade tensions and a Federal Reserve that remains cautious but not yet dovish. Unless incoming US data radically soften, the pair is likely to probe the 1.3350 support area in the days ahead, with rebounds toward 1.3450 viewed as corrective.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3415, SL 1.3450, TP 1.3350

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[FreshForex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for July 22, 2025 USDJPY

Event to watch today:

22.07 15:30 EET. USD – Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will give a speech

USDJPY:

The pair opened the week around 147.50, reacting to elections for Japan’s upper house in which the ruling coalition lost its majority – increasing the likelihood of additional fiscal stimulus and yen weakness.

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Inflation in Japan remains subdued and real wages are stagnating, so the market does not expect the Bank of Japan to tighten policy before the end of 2025. The yield gap between 10-year U.S. Treasuries and JGBs hovers near yearly highs, driving capital out of low-yielding JGBs into U.S. assets and supporting USD demand.

Additional support for the dollar stems from global trade frictions and the Fed’s cautious stance: the U.S. central bank is in no hurry to cut rates. Under these conditions, pullbacks of USDJPY below 147.50 are seen as opportunities to reopen long positions, with targets near the psychological barrier of 150.00 and an interim objective of 148.50.

Trading recommendation: BUY 147.50, SL 147.20, TP 148.50

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[FreshForex]

Wall Street takes off: 5 secret growth engines for #S&P500 and #NQ100 in 2025

Record closes for the indices on July 21 came from a powerful combo: a surge in #Google, a strong start to the earnings season, gains in #Apple (+0.6%), #Amazon (+1.4%), plus #Microsoft, #Meta Platforms, and #Nvidia. This momentum, coupled with market bets on imminent Fed rate cuts and hopes for a softening US-EU tariff conflict, pushed #S&P500 and #NQ100 to new all-time highs.

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5 mega drivers that could keep #S&P500 and #NQ100 on the runway through 2025:

•   AI capex and monetization: Top cloud providers are ramping up spending in computing clusters and generative AI solutions. The growing lineup of paid AI products (Google Gemini, Microsoft Copilot+ Apps, Amazon Bedrock) is starting to generate significant revenue, boosting profit estimates for the “Magnificent 7.”

•   Fed policy easing: If inflation keeps drifting towards 2%, we may see the first rate cut of the cycle between July and September. Historically, every 25 bps drop in 10-year UST yields adds ~2% to the #NQ100’s valuation multiple.

•   Record buybacks and dividends: #S&P500 companies hold $3.5 trillion in cash. After tax relief on repatriated foreign earnings earlier this year, several megacap boards approved accelerated buybacks — mechanically supporting stock prices.

•   Easing tariff risks: Potential trade deals between the US and EU, and the US and Mexico, would remove the threat of 20–50% tariffs priced into valuations, unlocking CAPEX in manufacturing and semiconductors — sectors with a heavy #NQ100 weight.

•   Resilient consumers and services: Unemployment remains near 4%, and household spending is growing 2–3% YoY. This supports e-commerce, streaming, and platform advertising — together making up ~40% of #NQ100 and ~28% of #S&P500.

The current highs of #S&P500 and #NQ100 aren’t a random spike — they result from strong corporate earnings, expectations of Fed cuts, and hopes of trade détente. If even some of these five drivers materialize, the indices have a strong chance to stay elevated and set new records by year-end. FreshForex analysts believe current prices could spark a new rally, with today’s market conditions offering plenty of entry points in both indices and stock CFDs.

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[FreshForex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for July 23, 2025 EURUSD

Event to watch today:

17:30 EET. USD - Crude Oil Inventories

EURUSD:

The pair remains under pressure from the US‑EU trade dispute: Washington’s 30 % duties on European imports are driving investors into dollar‑denominated assets and eroding confidence in Eurozone export prospects. Robust US business‑activity data have kept 10‑year Treasury yields near 4.45 %, while in Europe traders continue to price in another ECB rate cut for Q3 2025.

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In the near term, the euro also lacks support from inflation expectations: the latest ECB projections point to consumer‑price growth slowing to 2 % by 2026, diminishing the appeal of European bonds. At the same time, markets now anticipate the Fed’s first rate cut only in the autumn, widening the yield differential in the dollar’s favour.

Finally, rising geopolitical tension—an “eye‑for‑an‑eye” tariff rhetoric—boosts demand for the reserve currency and casts doubt on the EU’s ability to maintain a positive trade balance in H2. Against this fundamental backdrop, selling EURUSD from current levels appears justified.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1745, SL 1.1785, TP 1.1695

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[FreshForex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for July 24, 2025 GBPUSD

Event to pay attention to today:

24.07 15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Claims

GBPUSD:

The GBP/USD pair remains stable after four days of growth, trading around 1.3580 during Asian trading hours on Thursday.

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Meanwhile, the European Union (EU) and the United States (US) are close to reaching a deal that would impose 15% tariffs on EU goods imported into the US. In addition, on Tuesday, US President Donald Trump announced a major tariff agreement with Japan that would impose 15% tariffs on Japanese exports.

However, the decline in the US dollar may be tempered by easing concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve (Fed).

In the United Kingdom (UK), traders are likely to focus on the S&P Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data due out on Thursday. The report is expected to show a slight improvement in manufacturing and growth in the services sector in July.

The Bank of England (BoE) is expected to temporarily suspend sales of long-term GILTS due to low demand from traditional buyers such as pension funds. Meanwhile, traders have slightly lowered their expectations for Bank of England policy easing, although they still forecast two rate cuts in 2025.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.3585, SL 1.3510, TP 1.3675

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[FreshForex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for July 25, 2025 USDJPY

Event to watch today:

25.07 15:30 EET.USD - Change in orders for durable goods

USDJPY:

The yen is strengthening for the fourth consecutive session, supported by both domestic and external factors. This week’s US–Japan trade deal has reduced geopolitical uncertainty and created expectations that the Bank of Japan could begin moderate policy tightening by year-end.

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Another factor is the slow-down in Tokyo inflation to 3.3%, which eases pressure on real household incomes, while the trade balance surplus remains stable. At the same time, the yield spread between 10-year JGBs (about 1.05%) and their US counterparts narrowed by 10bps during the week, partially reducing the dollar’s appeal.

On the other hand, Powell’s “hawkish” remarks are limiting the pair’s decline, though signs of possible verbal intervention from Japan’s Ministry of Finance above 147 are making speculators more cautious. In this fundamental context, a correction toward 145 looks likely, especially if US jobless claims beat expectations and fuel safe-haven demand for the yen.

Trade recommendation: SELL 147.30, SL 147.50, TP 146.00

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[FreshForex]

In-depth trade analysis — your smart edge

Many traders still log their trades manually — copying data into spreadsheets, trying to estimate average returns, risk levels, and fees. This is time-consuming and prone to mistakes: missed patterns, misjudged drawdowns, and oversized positions. The enhanced trade analysis in MT5 solves this: the platform automatically compiles your performance into clear, detailed reports. Just open your trading history and click — charts and stats appear instantly, turning raw data into valuable insights.

With advanced analytics, you can refine your strategy, spot weaknesses, and better anticipate the outcome of each trade. Simply right-click any order in the History tab and choose Report → Summary.

Here’s what you get:

   •   Clear profit/risk stats: Expectancy, recovery factors, Sharpe and Sortino ratios — see which methods grow your balance, and which quietly drain it.

   •   Hidden pattern detection: Filter by symbol, time of day, day of the week, or order type — and uncover where your approach is strongest.

   •   Visual drawdown tracking: A detailed equity curve shows not only the depth of declines but how long they last — helping you size trades and manage stress more effectively.

   •   Scenario-based forecasts: Analyze equity behavior over time and highlight likely paths ahead — great for planning your next steps.

   •   Cost awareness: A separate report breaks down commissions and swaps — find out where silent costs add up, and where they can be trimmed.

Start using the enhanced analysis today — turn your past trades into a powerful decision-making tool. The sooner you begin, the faster you’ll see what’s truly driving your results and how steadily your capital can grow. MetaTrader 5 is ready to go — trade smarter with FreshForex.

And by the way — WebTrader is back! Now you can trade right from your browser with no device limits. Just log in and go.

Download MetaTrader 5