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#BRENT surged: what’s happening?

Recently, #BRENT climbed from the $70 area to an intraday peak of about $119.50 per barrel, and then remained noticeably above previous levels. The market pushed prices higher not because of abstract expectations, but due to a real threat of disruptions to oil supplies from the Persian Gulf. At first, investors priced in fears of escalation around Iran, and later saw actual shipment problems and production cuts from major producers.

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5 factors behind the rally:

• Escalation around Iran sharply increased anxiety in the oil market. Strikes and retaliatory actions in the region forced buyers to urgently price in the risk of a major supply disruption.
  
• The Strait of Hormuz came under threat — a key route for global oil. More than 20% of the world’s oil supply passes through it, so even a partial disruption immediately pushes prices higher.
  
• The problems moved from expectations to real restrictions. Iraq, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia began cutting production because exporting oil became more difficult, while storage capacity is limited.
  
• The market did not believe that increased OPEC+ production would quickly calm the situation. The announced increase of 206 thousand barrels per day looked too small compared to the potential loss of much larger volumes.
  
• Major banks and analysts started raising oil forecasts. Goldman Sachs warned that #BRENT could rise above $100 if disruptions through Hormuz are not resolved quickly, which further fueled buying.
  

After the sharp surge, #BRENT corrected toward the $90 per barrel level, as the market partially removed the maximum risk premium from prices. Investors are no longer pricing in the most severe supply disruption scenario, but tensions in the Middle East still prevent oil from returning to previous levels.

FreshForex analysts believe that the pullback from the highs does not mean the upside potential is exhausted. The market continues to closely monitor developments in the region, and any new supply disruption or escalation could quickly push #BRENT higher again. Oil is now moving not on panic, but on a more measured assessment of risks.

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Market Fundamental Analysis for March 11, 2026 GBPUSD

Event to watch today:

14:30 EET. USD — Consumer Price Index / Core Consumer Price Index (excluding food and energy)

GBPUSD:

GBP/USD is holding near 1.3450 on Wednesday, but the external backdrop remains unfavorable for the pound. Escalating tensions in the Middle East support demand for the dollar and push oil prices higher, which for the UK means a risk of higher inflation and pressure on real incomes. In such conditions, market participants more often reduce positions in risk-sensitive currencies and move into the dollar.

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Investors are also reassessing expectations for the Bank of England: rising energy costs reduce the room for rapid policy easing, while simultaneously worsening the outlook for an economy dependent on consumer demand. For now, the balance of factors favors caution, while the dollar benefits from its status as a global settlement currency and from capital inflows into US assets.

US data—especially inflation—remains an additional driver for the pair. Stronger inflation readings increase the likelihood that tight financial conditions in the US will persist, supporting the dollar. Against this backdrop, it is difficult for the pound to stage a sustained recovery: the combination of external price shocks and uncertainty around domestic demand dynamics keeps downside risks for GBP/USD in place.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3450, SL 1.3465, TP 1.3360

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Market Fundamental Analysis for March 12, 2026 USDJPY

Event to watch today:

14:30 EET. USD - Initial Jobless Claims

USDJPY:

USD/JPY is rising toward the 159.10–159.20 area on Thursday, as the US dollar continues to draw support from expensive oil and a reassessment of US rate expectations. The market believes inflation risks have increased, while the probability of quick policy easing by the Federal Reserve has declined. This is unfavorable for the yen, as Japan remains a major energy importer.

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he latest data on Japanese wholesale prices showed annual growth slowing to 2.0% in February, but the effect of the Middle East conflict has hardly been reflected there yet. Reuters notes that the yen-denominated import price index accelerated to its highest level since July 2024. This limits the room for a rapid rate increase by the Bank of Japan and leaves the yen vulnerable.

Another factor supporting the pair is that even after the December rate increase, the Bank of Japan’s policy rate stands at only 0.75%, while the market still sees a higher premium in dollar-denominated assets. Talks about possible action by the authorities may intensify, but for now the decisive factor remains the yield gap and the effect of expensive oil on the Japanese economy. Therefore, the baseline scenario for USD/JPY today suggests that the upward bias is likely to remain in place.

Trading recommendation: BUY 159.15, SL 158.85, TP 160.05

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Market Fundamental Analysis for March 16, 2026 GBPUSD

GBPUSD:

The pound is trading near 1.3245–1.3265 after a series of declines against the dollar. Pressure on the British currency increased after data showed no growth in the UK economy in January, while the external background remains difficult due to high oil prices and tensions in the Middle East. For the British economy, this means higher inflation risks and weaker demand prospects.

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The market is increasingly expecting the Bank of England to leave its interest rate unchanged at the upcoming meeting, but such a pause is not providing support for the pound. The reason is that this decision reflects not economic strength, but a combination of weak growth and the risk of a renewed acceleration in prices. At the same time, the dollar is receiving additional support as a safe-haven currency during a period of global uncertainty.

Fundamentally, this keeps the bias tilted toward further weakness in GBP/USD. A recovery would only be possible if energy-related pressure eases significantly, but so far the market has received no such signal. Until then, participants will continue to assess how quickly higher fuel costs will affect inflation and business activity in the UK. Against this background, selling the pair looks more justified than expecting a stable rise.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3255, SL 1.3285, TP 1.3165

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Market Fundamental Analysis for March 17, 2026 USDJPY

USDJPY:

USD/JPY is trading near 159.30, staying at elevated levels because of steady demand for the US dollar and expensive oil. For Japan, this is a sensitive combination: the country depends on imported energy, so a weak yen increases pressure on domestic prices. As long as global investors choose the dollar as a safe-haven asset, it is difficult for the Japanese currency to recover lost ground.

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However, the potential for further growth in the pair is already limited. The Bank of Japan remains on course for a gradual rate increase as long as inflation persists, while government officials are taking an increasingly firm view of sharp currency market moves. Japan’s Ministry of Finance has already stated that it is ready to take action against excessive volatility, and this signal becomes more important as the pair approaches the 160.00 level.

Today, the market is increasingly taking into account the risk of a downward correction. A strong dollar still supports USD/JPY, but the threat of currency intervention and expectations of firmer signals from the Bank of Japan may limit further buying. If the regulator confirms its readiness to act and the authorities intensify their warnings, some market participants may begin to reduce long positions.

Trading recommendation: SELL 159.30, SL 159.60, TP 158.40

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Market Fundamental Analysis for March 18, 2026 EURUSD

Event to watch today:

14:30 EET. USD - Producer Price Index

20:00 EET. USD - FOMC Interest Rate Decision

EURUSD:

EUR/USD is holding near 1.1545 on Wednesday after an unstable advance, but the fundamental backdrop still favors a stronger US dollar. The main driver of the day is the Federal Reserve’s decision. The market is almost unanimous in expecting the rate to remain unchanged, but the key issue will be the signal regarding the дaльнeйшaя trajectory of monetary policy. Against the backdrop of expensive oil and the risk of another round of inflation, the US regulator is unlikely to provide grounds for a quick reduction in borrowing costs, which supports demand for the dollar.

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Additional pressure on the euro comes from the energy factor. Rising oil and gas prices worsen the position of the eurozone economy, which remains dependent on external supplies of raw materials. For the European Central Bank, this means an uncomfortable combination of weaker growth and persistent price pressure. In such conditions, room for policy easing is limited, but there are also few grounds for a sustainable strengthening of the single currency, as market participants are pricing in weaker prospects for the region.

Support for the dollar also remains in place due to its safe-haven role during periods of geopolitical tension. As long as investors remain focused on the Fed’s decision, the euro is vulnerable to a decline even without a sharp deterioration in eurozone statistics. If the US regulator confirms a cautious approach and gives no signals of an early rate cut, pressure on EUR/USD may intensify. Under these conditions, the priority remains a sell scenario from current levels, with expectations of a return toward the recent lower boundary of the range.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1545, SL 1.1575, TP 1.1455

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Market Fundamental Analysis for March 19, 2026 GBPUSD

Event to watch today:

14:00 EET. GBP - Bank of England Interest Rate Decision

GBPUSD:

GBP/USD is trading near 1.3285, and the fundamental background for the pair remains restrained. The dollar received support after the Federal Reserve decided to keep rates unchanged and confirmed a cautious approach under conditions of elevated inflation. This strengthened expectations that a rate cut in the United States may be delayed, meaning the US currency still has an advantage over most of its peers, including the pound.

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The situation in the United Kingdom looks mixed. On the one hand, expectations for the Bank of England have shifted toward keeping rates unchanged for longer, since rising energy prices are increasing inflation risks. On the other hand, such a pause is not related to economic strength. Earlier weak activity data and deterioration in the labor market showed that domestic demand remains vulnerable. As a result, the pound is not receiving full support even with firm interest-rate expectations.

Rising oil and gas prices are creating additional pressure on the UK economy through business costs, consumer spending, and inflation expectations. Even if the Bank of England keeps the rate unchanged today, this alone is unlikely to become a sustainable growth driver for the pound, since the market will assess not only the rate level but also economic weakness combined with external price pressure. Against this backdrop, the dollar’s position looks stronger, which preserves the potential for GBP/USD to move lower.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3285, SL 1.3315, TP 1.3195

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Market Fundamental Analysis for March 20, 2026 USDJPY

USDJPY:

USD/JPY is trading near 157.90 after retreating from recent highs. The Bank of Japan kept the short-term rate unchanged at 0.75%, but once again pointed to inflation risks linked to expensive oil and a weak yen. For Japan’s economy, which depends on fuel imports, this reinforces expectations of further rate increases.

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Additional support for the yen comes from statements by the authorities about their readiness to respond to excessive volatility in the currency market. The closer the dollar moves toward the 160 yen area, the stronger the concerns about possible intervention. Because of this, some market participants prefer to reduce long positions in the pair, even despite higher interest rates in the United States.

The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged and is not signaling rapid easing. However, for USD/JPY this factor has already been largely priced in. At the moment, greater weight is being given to expectations of further steps by the Bank of Japan and the risk of official action in response to yen weakness, which increases the probability of a decline in the pair.

Trading recommendation: SELL 157.90, SL 158.35, TP 156.55

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Market Fundamental Analysis for March 23, 2026 EURUSD

EURUSD:

EUR/USD is trading near 1.1552 on Monday, while demand for the US dollar has strengthened amid risk-off sentiment. The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East is supporting the US currency as a safe-haven asset, while rising oil and gas prices are making the market more cautious about the prospects for US rate cuts. Additional support for the dollar is coming from higher US Treasury yields.

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The euro’s backdrop looks more vulnerable. The European Central Bank kept the interest rate at 2%, but raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6% from 1.9% and lowered its eurozone growth forecast to 0.9% from 1.2%. This means simultaneous acceleration in prices and weakening business activity, while a prolonged energy shock could increase pressure on industry and consumer demand.

Against this background, the advantage remains on the side of the dollar. The US economy appears more resilient to rising energy prices, while the market has already significantly reduced expectations of near-term Federal Reserve policy easing. As long as tensions in commodity markets remain elevated, it will be harder for the euro to recover, so the base-case scenario for today suggests further downside in the pair from current levels.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1550, SL 1.1570, TP 1.1460

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Market Fundamental Analysis for March 24, 2026 GBPUSD

Event to watch today:

11:30 EET. GBP - Composite PMI

15:45 EET. USD - Composite PMI

GBPUSD:

GBP/USD is trading around 1.3405 on Tuesday after a notable recovery at the beginning of the week, but the fundamental picture for the pound remains mixed. A temporary easing of concerns surrounding the Middle East helped the British currency rebound, but a sustainable upward impulse has yet to form. The US dollar remains supported by growing expectations that the American regulator will keep financial conditions tight for longer. For the pair, this means that any rise in the pound quickly meets demand for the dollar, especially amid ongoing nervousness in global markets.

For the United Kingdom, an important limiting factor remains the economy’s sensitivity to energy prices and the condition of the domestic government bond market. Sharp moves in gilt yields last week showed that investors are concerned about the combination of weak growth and higher inflation. Although the Bank of England also left rates unchanged and the market is discussing the possibility of a rate increase in the coming months, this does not guarantee sustainable support for the pound. Higher rate expectations support the currency only partially, as they also increase concerns regarding credit pressure and business activity within the country.

As a result, GBP/USD remains vulnerable to renewed dollar strengthening if oil prices move higher again and US yields continue to rise. The pause in geopolitical escalation improved sentiment only temporarily, while the broader background still favors cautious demand for the US currency. For the pound, this means the risk of coming under pressure again after its short-term rebound. As of today, the fundamental configuration looks more unfavorable for the British currency than supportive of further gains.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3405, SL 1.3430, TP 1.3330

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Market Fundamental Analysis for March 25, 2026 GBPUSD​

Event to watch today:

09:00 EET. GBP - Consumer Price Index

GBPUSD:

GBP/USD is holding near 1.3430 and remains supported by expectations surrounding the Bank of England’s policy rate. At its March 19 meeting, the regulator unanimously kept the rate at 3.75% and stressed that the rise in global energy prices is already affecting fuel and utility costs for British households. The Bank of England made it clear that it is ready to respond if the external shock begins to feed more strongly into domestic prices.

The pound is also being supported by the bond market. According to Reuters, yields on two-year UK government bonds rose by around 60 basis points in March, and market participants even began to consider the possibility of a rate increase later this year rather than a cut. This has boosted sterling’s appeal relative to other European currencies and revived demand for the pound after a weak start to the month.

Sterling still has weak points: a recent KPMG survey showed worsening consumer sentiment due to concerns over food and energy prices. However, for the currency market, the difference in rate expectations and the Bank of England’s readiness to maintain a firm stance for longer matter more at the moment. As long as this factor remains dominant, the baseline scenario for the current date stays moderately bullish for GBP/USD.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.3430, SL 1.3400, TP 1.3520

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Market Fundamental Analysis for March 26, 2026 USD​JPY

Event to watch today:

14:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Claims

USDJPY:

USD/JPY is holding near 159.45 on Thursday, remaining close to an important market zone. The dollar is supported by expectations that the US regulator will not rush to ease policy, as well as by continued demand for safe-haven assets. This is keeping the pair at elevated levels. At the same time, the fact that the exchange rate is near 160.00 increases the market’s sensitivity to any signals from the Japanese authorities.

The fundamental backdrop in Japan is gradually becoming more favorable for the yen. Within the leadership of the Bank of Japan, arguments in favor of further rate hikes are gaining strength, as price growth is becoming more sustainable and the weak yen continues to affect inflation. Additional attention is being drawn to service-sector price data, which confirm that domestic inflationary pressure remains in place. This means that the potential for further weakening of the Japanese currency no longer looks unlimited.

The main risk for dollar buyers now is a possible response from the Japanese authorities to excessive yen weakness. The closer the exchange rate gets to 160.00, the higher the likelihood of firm statements or other measures that could trigger a sharp pullback in the pair. Under these conditions, the upside potential in USD/JPY appears limited, while room for a decline remains considerable. As of today, the preferred scenario is selling the pair from current levels.

Trading recommendation: SELL 159.45, SL 159.95, TP 157.95

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Market Fundamental Analysis for March 27, 2026 EURUSD

Event to watch today:

16:00 EET. USD - University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

EURUSD:

EUR/USD is holding near 1.1540–1.1545 on Friday after three days of decline, while demand for the euro remains weak. The US dollar is supported by investors moving into safe-haven assets: tensions in the Middle East are keeping oil prices elevated, so the market is allowing for a longer period of tight monetary conditions in the United States. The temporary delay in further strikes on Iranian infrastructure has not changed the overall mood, because the risk of supply disruptions and another rise in inflation still remains.

For the euro area, the backdrop is mixed. Representatives of the European Central Bank are allowing for tighter policy as early as late April if price pressure intensifies. At the same time, consumer and business sentiment in the bloc’s largest economies is deteriorating. This limits demand for the euro: possible support from interest rates is still being offset by concerns about growth and by the impact of expensive energy on demand.

As a result, the fundamental advantage remains on the side of the dollar. The US currency is attracting capital as a safe-haven asset, while the euro lacks strong domestic drivers for a confident recovery. If the market continues to price in persistent inflation in the United States and caution remains in place, pressure on the pair may quickly return from current levels.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1545, SL 1.1575, TP 1.1455

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Market Fundamental Analysis for March 30, 2026 GBPUSD

Event to watch today:

17:30 EET. USD — Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to deliver a speech

GBPUSD:

The pound is holding near 1.3250, but pressure from the dollar persists. The market remains cautious: higher energy prices due to the Middle East conflict are increasing inflation risks and pushing investors toward safe-haven assets, while the dollar is gaining demand as the most liquid currency.

The UK picture is mixed. Higher fuel and raw material prices increase the risk of faster inflation, so market participants are discussing the likelihood of stricter action from the Bank of England. At the same time, rising costs can cool consumption and business activity, which limits the pound’s resilience.

In the US, expectations that rates will remain high are still a strong argument in favor of the dollar: resilient economic data and new Fed signals may strengthen capital inflows into dollar assets. For today, the base case is continued dollar advantage and a gradual weakening in GBP/USD.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3250, SL 1.3270, TP 1.3190

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Market Fundamental Analysis for March 31, 2026 USDJPY

Event to watch today:

17:00 EET. USD - Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) by the Bureau of Labor Statistics

17:00 EET. USD - Consumer Confidence Index

USDJPY:

On March 31, USD/JPY is hovering around 159.6–159.9: the dollar is supported by investors moving into safe-haven assets amid tensions around Iran and a sharp rise in oil prices. At the same time, the yen occasionally recovers part of its losses, as the market remains wary of potential action by Japanese authorities if the currency weakens further.

Higher energy import costs worsen Japan’s trade conditions and add to inflation pressure, making the topic of the Bank of Japan’s next steps especially sensitive. Any signals of readiness to tighten policy increase the chances of a stronger yen, even if no specific decisions have been made yet.

Given the risk of verbal warnings or direct intervention, as well as the likelihood of pullbacks after sharp moves, USD/JPY has a growing chance of declining on even a modest improvement in sentiment in commodity markets. This makes selling the pair the more preferred scenario.

Trade recommendation: SELL 159.70, SL 159.90, TP 158.80

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Market Fundamental Analysis for April 1, 2026 EURUSD

Event to watch today:

15:15 EET. USD - ADP Employment Change

15:30 EET. USD - Retail Sales Change

17:00 EET. USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI

EURUSD:

The EUR/USD pair is trading near 1.1560, while demand for the US dollar after its recent rally looks less steady: markets are partly pricing in a possible pause in the conflict around Iran, which reduces the need for defensive dollar buying and supports the euro. At the same time, volatility remains elevated, and reactions to headlines may be especially sharp.

On the euro’s side, there is a jump in euro area inflation due to higher energy prices and growing expectations that the European Central Bank could discuss a rate increase as early as the meeting in late April. Investors are also watching how quickly energy costs start to weigh on demand and industry.

In the US, focus shifts to late-week labor market data: weak numbers could revive talk of a rate cut, while strong data would strengthen the dollar again. As long as uncertainty around oil persists, EUR/USD remains highly sensitive to news, but today the balance of factors is moderately in favor of the euro.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.1560, SL 1.1535, TP 1.1645

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Market Fundamental Analysis for April 2, 2026 GBPUSD

Event to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD - Initial Jobless Claims

GBPUSD:

GBP/USD is trading around 1.3255 amid elevated market jitters due to the situation in the Middle East. The pair is holding on to part of its recent gains, but market participants are avoiding risk ahead of new U.S. statements regarding the prospects for a ceasefire, and during bouts of heightened anxiety the dollar quickly finds support.

The UK economy is sensitive to an energy shock: rising fuel and logistics costs add to inflationary pressure, while the Bank of England warns of risks to households through higher borrowing and mortgage costs. High rates and limited access to financing help restrain prices, but at the same time worsen growth expectations, leaving demand for the pound unstable.

In the U.S., attention is on the jobs report and the subsequent reassessment of inflation risks amid expensive oil. If the data confirm labor market resilience, expectations for rate cuts will be pushed further out, supporting the dollar. In the current news environment, this provides grounds to view a move lower as the base case for the coming days, especially if geopolitical tensions remain elevated.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3255, SL 1.3275, TP 1.3165

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Market Fundamental Analysis for April 3, 2026 USDJPY

Events to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD – Change in Non-Farm Payrolls

15:30 EET. USD – Unemployment Rate

USDJPY:

USD/JPY is trading near 159.60 and remains near the upper end of its recent range, though the potential for further gains looks limited. Approaching a round-number level increases the attention of Japanese authorities to market moves and raises the risk of statements aimed at cooling the market, while expensive oil adds strain to an economy that depends on imported commodities.

The US dollar is supported by demand for safe-haven assets amid the Iran-related conflict and by expectations that US interest rates will stay high for longer. At the same time, arguments for a stronger yen are also building: import-driven inflation caused by energy prices increases the likelihood of a tighter policy stance from the Bank of Japan, and sharp exchange-rate moves may be viewed by authorities as speculative.

Today’s US labor market data could become a turning point: weak figures would reduce pressure on yields and make the dollar less attractive. Given the proximity to levels that traditionally trigger a reaction from Japanese officials, it is reasonable to factor in a downside correction in the pair in the near term.

Trading recommendation: SELL 159.60, SL 159.80, TP 158.40

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Market Fundamental Analysis for April 6, 2026 EURUSD

Event to watch today:

17:00 EET. USD - ISM Services Business Activity Index

EURUSD:

EUR/USD is holding near 1.1520 on April 6. The pair is under pressure due to demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset, as the market is focused on the renewed escalation around Iran and risks to supply through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil remains above 110 dollars per barrel, which increases inflation risks and reduces interest in the currencies of regions that depend on expensive energy imports.

Additional support for the dollar came from the March US labour market data. The number of new jobs increased by 178 thousand, unemployment fell to 4.3%, and the market reduced expectations of an early Federal Reserve rate cut. US Treasury yields remain elevated, while investors are waiting for the minutes of the March Fed meeting and fresh inflation data. As long as macroeconomic statistics do not point to a sharp slowdown in the US economy, the dollar is likely to retain its advantage.

The euro has some support of its own: inflation in the euro area accelerated to 2.5% in March from 1.9%, mainly because of higher energy prices. This has strengthened expectations of firmer steps from the European Central Bank. At the same time, growth prospects for the regional economy are deteriorating, while expensive energy is putting pressure on demand and business costs. Against this backdrop, EUR/USD still faces downside risks.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1520, SL 1.1550, TP 1.1430

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