What is your net return in USD?

[mjcmurfy]

It's only a suckers game if you're the sucker. (You're the sucker).

I don't play your casino game.

Coming from a self-professed "shameless libertarian elite", your statement doesn't prompt much chagrin on my part. Don't get me wrong, I have nothing against libertarians, it's the shameless part that annoys me. As a moral vacuum, I assume you have done quite well for yourself then?

Seriously. I am tired of hearing this kind of sentiment. People should not feel good about benefiting at the expense of others, especially when not all of the players have access to the same level of information, or are actively misinformed by the people who will ultimately take their money. It's like sitting down to a poker game with a stacked deck.

You don't make me sick, but I do feel somewhat queasy.

[SgtSpike]

It's a zero-sum game, as we both agreed upon earlier.  I'm not sure what your point is...

In a nutshell my point is that even though it's a zero sum game there are still more losers than winners due to lots of people losing money to a smaller number of bigger players who dominate the market, that it's not a level playing field for all participants and that hopefully this poll will underline the fact.

Also, a side point is that bitcoin is supposed to be an alternative to the current financial system, not the same thing again with the exact same problems caused by irrational speculation. Why do we have to recreate the same problems that are dooming the current financial system?

The only people who advocate speculation are those who are benefiting in fiat at the expense of naive investors and want to freely continue doing so. Biased opinions are null opinions in my view.

I agree - generally, there are more losers than winners in any speculation/day-trading activities.  Why is it not a level playing field though?

We are recreating the same "problems" because there is no choice.  A currency cannot exist without speculation about its existence.  That is a fact.

It's only a suckers game if you're the sucker. (You're the sucker).

I don't play your casino game.

Coming from a self-professed "shameless libertarian elite", your statement doesn't prompt much chagrin on my part. Don't get me wrong, I have nothing against libertarians, it's the shameless part that annoys me. As a moral vacuum, I assume you have done quite well for yourself then?

Seriously. I am tired of hearing this kind of sentiment. People should not feel good about benefiting at the expense of others, especially when not all of the players have access to the same level of information, or are actively misinformed by the people who will ultimately take their money. It's like sitting down to a poker game with a stacked deck.

You don't make me sick, but I do feel somewhat queasy.

Everyone has a choice to participate.  I don't feel bad about gaining money at the expense of others when the others willingly participate in the same activity with the same level of risk and same information available.  It is their fault if they are investing while misinformed, or do not have access to the same level of information (though I'm not sure what "levels of information" there might be in Bitcoin).

[mjcmurfy]

Why is it not a level playing field though?

Because people with excessive capital can manipulate the market for their own ends.

Everyone has a choice to participate.

People choose to participate in day-trading, yes, but other (more important) participants who are actually trying to run successful businesses in the bitcoin economy do not have that choice, as they have to actually conduct real commerce with the currency. They may have no interest in short term speculation but find it difficult to operate in such a volatile environment created by day-traders who contribute absolutely nothing to the underlying economy. Of course, they do have the choice not to use bitcoin, but if business decide not to use the currency, then no amount of speculation is going to make your coins worth anything tangible.

I am not a fool. I realize that speculation is necessary, but if you are going to speculate on bitcoin, at least take the bullish outlook. If you don't believe in bitcoin, then don't invest! It's not investment that I have a problem with, it's short term speculation by people who have no intention of leaving their capital in the system for any period of time, and only care about siphoning fiat out of the system and into their bank accounts.

I don't feel bad about gaining money at the expense of others when the others willingly participate in the same activity with the same level of risk and same information available.  It is their fault if they are investing while misinformed, or do not have access to the same level of information (though I'm not sure what "levels of information" there might be in Bitcoin).

Enough said. I guess we just see things differently.

[BitMagic]

It's only a suckers game if you're the sucker. (You're the sucker).

I don't play your casino game.

Coming from a self-professed "shameless libertarian elite", your statement doesn't prompt much chagrin on my part. Don't get me wrong, I have nothing against libertarians, it's the shameless part that annoys me. As a moral vacuum, I assume you have done quite well for yourself then?

Seriously. I am tired of hearing this kind of sentiment. People should not feel good about benefiting at the expense of others, especially when not all of the players have access to the same level of information, or are actively misinformed by the people who will ultimately take their money. It's like sitting down to a poker game with a stacked deck.

You don't make me sick, but I do feel somewhat queasy.

Ah, you must be newish here. I'm about the opposite of a shameless libertarian elite, that's all sarcasm.

I ended up around here with a genuine, opinionless interest in an unregulated currency experiment, and found myself surrounded by complete, utter idiocy, which prompted me to liquidate all my investments in this garbage. The sheer amount of scamming, whiining, and railing on government while threatening legal action, combined with stupid nerd shut-ins has pretty much confirmed my utter disrespect for any self-proclaimed libertarians backing bitcoin. We probably share a perspective or two on that.

All that being said, I do hold the belief that (regulated) speculation is both a necessary and inevitable part of successful asset exchange, depending on its scale. It would be very hard for you to convince me otherwise.

People choose to participate in day-trading, yes, but others who are trying to run business in the bitcoin economy, who may have no interest in short term speculation, find it difficult to operate in such a volatile environment created by day-traders, who contribute absolutely nothing to the underlying economy.

I am not a fool. I realize that speculation is necessary, but if you are going to speculate on bitcoin, at least take the bullish outlook. If you don't believe in bitcoin, then don't invest! It's not investment that I have a problem with, it's short term speculation by people who have no intention of leaving their capital in the system for any period of time, and only care about siphoning fiat out of the system and into their bank accounts.

You have no idea why speculation is necessay if you are ok with speculation one-way. The whole point is to minimize volatility and home in on actual value. if shorting had been available from the start, we might not have seen the bubble to the extreme extent that we did.

The volatility you complain about is mostly related to small market capitalization of bitcoin. As long as adoption is low or consolidated, you will see volatility.

[mjcmurfy]

Ah, you must be newish here. I'm about the opposite of a shameless libertarian elite, that's all sarcasm.

I ended up around here with a genuine, opinionless interest in an unregulated currency experiment, and found myself surrounded by complete, utter idiocy, which prompted me to liquidate all my investments in this garbage. The sheer amount of scamming, whiining, and railing on government while threatening legal action, combined with stupid nerd shut-ins has pretty much confirmed my utter disrespect for any self-proclaimed libertarians backing bitcoin. We probably share a perspective or two on that.

All that being said, I do hold the belief that (regulated) speculation is both a necessary and inevitable part of successful asset exchange, depending on its scale. It would be very hard for you to convince me otherwise.

Sorry for jumping to conclusions. I agree pretty much with everything you said, including the part about regulated speculation.

You have no idea why speculation is necessay if you are ok with speculation one-way. The whole point is to minimize volatility and home in on actual value. if shorting had been available from the start, we might not have seen the bubble to the extreme extent that we did.

The volatility you complain about is mostly related to small market capitalization of bitcoin. As long as adoption is low or consolidated, you will see volatility.

When I said that bullish speculation is fine, what I actually meant was that if people believe that bitcoin is going to be the superior currency in the future, then they should convert fiat into bitcoin and not look back. It is the short term scalping of fiat out of the system by buying and immediately selling again that I disagree with. It only serves to create fiat profit for people who are using the exchanges like a casino.

I agree with your point about volatility and small market cap, but I still disagree with people who trade bitcoin solely for fiat profit.

I guess I just disagree with the conversion of bitcoin into fiat at all. I know it might be a naive belief, and that bitcoin business need some fiat to pay expenses that cannot be otherwise paid in bitcoin. I just don't see the point of wanting to sell bitcoin for fiat, a currency which by definition you think is doomed to failure if you are investing in bitcoin in the first place.

[SgtSpike]

Why is it not a level playing field though?

Because people with excessive capital can manipulate the market for their own ends.

Everyone has a choice to participate.

People choose to participate in day-trading, yes, but other (more important) participants who are actually trying to run successful businesses in the bitcoin economy do not have that choice, as they have to actually conduct real commerce with the currency. They may have no interest in short term speculation but find it difficult to operate in such a volatile environment created by day-traders who contribute absolutely nothing to the underlying economy. Of course, they do have the choice not to use bitcoin, but if business decide not to use the currency, then no amount of speculation is going to make your coins worth anything tangible.

I am not a fool. I realize that speculation is necessary, but if you are going to speculate on bitcoin, at least take the bullish outlook. If you don't believe in bitcoin, then don't invest! It's not investment that I have a problem with, it's short term speculation by people who have no intention of leaving their capital in the system for any period of time, and only care about siphoning fiat out of the system and into their bank accounts.

I don't feel bad about gaining money at the expense of others when the others willingly participate in the same activity with the same level of risk and same information available.  It is their fault if they are investing while misinformed, or do not have access to the same level of information (though I'm not sure what "levels of information" there might be in Bitcoin).

Enough said. I guess we just see things differently.

Ok, I'll give you that it's not always an even playing field.  But, if people with excess capital can manipulate the market for their own ends, and you try to participate in said market, then you should either keep that in mind while speculating, or have a large amount of excess capital yourself.  If you don't do either of those things, then it is your own fault for even attempting to speculate in the first place.  You shouldn't speculate without all of the facts, and if you do, you should expect that there will be additional unknown risks associated with doing so.

Any merchants attempting to do business with Bitcoins know the risks with how volatile it is.  If they wanted a stable currency, they should be using a stable fiat currency, or a bitcoin-like alternative that is tied to a fiat currency (of which, none exist yet).  Yes, it is a catch-22, in that Bitcoin requires merchant to become stable, and merchants require stability to use Bitcoins, but there's not much we can do about that.  It is, after all, a free market.  People will still speculate, bull and bear alike, even if you scream against it until you are blue in the face.

[mjcmurfy]

People will still speculate, bull and bear alike, even if you scream against it until you are blue in the face.

Ultimately, I know this is true. But it doesn't hurt to try.

[SgtSpike]

Also, one more question mjcmurfy - Do you ever do anything to gain money that does NOT involve the expense of other people?  I mean, if you work a job, and take home a paycheck, then that takes away money that could be used to pay the investors of the company, or raises for other workers.  Or, it could be used to provide lower prices for customers.  In ANY case where you are gaining money, someone else is losing it.

If you say that when buying a cheeseburger, you get a cheeseburger in exchange for your expense, but when speculating, you don't get anything in exchange for their expense, then I'll say this:  The benefit is realized not in something tangible, but in the intangible, by having something with the potential to multiply what is put in.  Every person who speculates benefits from the CHANCE at having such a gain realized.  Even if they do not gain on their investment, they still benefited by having a chance at doing so.  If you disagree with this, then you should disagree with any and every investment ever made anywhere.

[SgtSpike]

People will still speculate, bull and bear alike, even if you scream against it until you are blue in the face.

Ultimately, I know this is true. But it doesn't hurt to try.

Unfortunately, it is the way the world works.  It could be a lot better place if people didn't have to look out for themselves, but because some do, it dictates that all must.

[BitMagic]

When I said that bullish speculation is fine, what I actually meant was that if people believe that bitcoin is going to be the superior currency in the future, then they should convert fiat into bitcoin and not look back. It is the short term scalping of fiat out of the system by buying and immediately selling again that I disagree with. It only serves to create fiat profit for people who are using the exchanges like a casino.

I agree with your point about volatility and small market cap, but I still disagree with people who trade bitcoin solely for fiat profit.

I guess I just disagree with the conversion of bitcoin into fiat at all. I know it might be a naive belief, and that bitcoin business need some fiat to pay expenses that cannot be otherwise paid in bitcoin. I just don't see the point of wanting to sell bitcoin for fiat, a currency which by definition you think is doomed to failure if you are investing in bitcoin in the first place.

If you actually believe what you say, then I think what you're upset about is that bitcoin is not a currency like USD is a currency. It is purely a speculative commodity, and you'd like to see a change towards wide adoption. USD is speculated on daily, but it doesn't affect it's day-to-day purchasing power. Common and reasonable complaint, but there's not much you or anyone can do until there is wider adoption.

If you're in denial, and you really do prefer bullish sentiment to bearish, then you are describing an interesting trend in the Spec subforum: unhappy with the "mood" of shorting, or the idea that it makes someone happy to see the value of BTC fall. This is a purely emotional response (and hilariously contradictory to anti-speculation sentiment), akin to craps players playing the "don't pass line." Same probabilities, but you're betting against the dice roller. In terms of payouts and outcomes for the table, it's irrelevant, and yet people get angry because you don't "support" the roller. This is a thought process you should get away from, immediately. Otherwise you'll look like that idiot Cypher_doc.

Feel free to believe in the fundamental strengths of bitcoin, but recognize that zealotry on that front is a losing proposition if they turn out unsound. Shorters will show you that sooner rather than later, if they actually are unsound, and you'll lose a lot less money in the long run.

[mjcmurfy]

Unfortunately, it is the way the world works.  It could be a lot better place if people didn't have to look out for themselves, but because some do, it dictates that all must.

Game theory and the prisoners dilemma. I know. But I have the belief that we can change the nash equilibrium if we actually tried. Call me naive or tell me I don't know how the world works, all I am suggesting is that we try to come up with a better way of doing things rather than replicating the same problems of the existing financial system.

You asked me if I do anything to gain money at the expense of others, I would only feel good about it if they gave it willingly to pay me for a service rendered or a product purchased, not if it has been accidentally lost by them due to a mistake they made or through some other form of serendipity. Such as occurs in a movement of the market that they could have not anticipated - they are not giving up their money willingly in this case.

When you say that people participate willingly in the market, and therefore your profiting from their losses is moral, I disagree. I get what you are saying that they are getting the chance of profit, but when the price movements are dictated by those with excessive capital, swaying it in their favor, then they are being unfairly robbed of their chance. That is all.

[SgtSpike]

Unfortunately, it is the way the world works.  It could be a lot better place if people didn't have to look out for themselves, but because some do, it dictates that all must.

Game theory and the prisoners dilemma. I know. But I have the belief that we can change the nash equilibrium if we actually tried. Call me naive or tell me I don't know how the world works, all I am suggesting is that we try to come up with a better way of doing things rather than replicating the same problems of the existing financial system.

You asked me if I do anything to gain money at the expense of others, I would only feel good about it if they gave it willingly to pay me for a service rendered or a product purchased, not if it has been accidentally lost by them due to a mistake they made or through some other form of serendipity. Such as occurs in a movement of the market that they could have not anticipated - they are not giving up their money willingly in this case.

When you say that people participate willingly in the market, and therefore your profiting from their losses is moral, I disagree. I get what you are saying that they are getting the chance of profit, but when the price movements are dictated by those with excessive capital, swaying it in their favor, then they are being unfairly robbed of their chance. That is all.

Fair enough. 

[mjcmurfy]

If you actually believe what you say, then I think what you're upset about is that bitcoin is not a currency like USD is a currency. It is purely a speculative commodity, and you'd like to see a change towards wide adoption. USD is speculated on daily, but it doesn't affect it's day-to-day purchasing power.

If you're in denial, and you really do prefer bullish sentiment to bearish, then you are describing an interesting trend in the Spec subforum: unhappy with the "mood" of shorting, or the idea that it makes someone happy to see the value of BTC fall. This is a purely emotional response, akin to craps players playing the "don't pass line." Same probablities, but you're betting against the dice roller. In terms of payouts and outcomes for the table, it's irrelevant, and yet people get angry because you don't "support" the roller. This is a thought process you should get away from, immediately. Otherwise you'll look like that idiot Cypher_doc.

Feel free to believe in the fundamental strengths of bitcoin, but recognize that zealotry on that front is a losing proposition if they turn out unsound. Shorters will show you that sooner rather than later, if they actually are unsound, and you'll lose a lot less money in the long run.

Again, I fully agree with you. In no respect am I in denial about the falling price of bitcoin. I have not invested any money, so I have no reason to be emotional. Bitcoin would function as a currency whether it's price was $1 or $100, I am simply frustrated by the short-sightedness of some of the investors here, because this short-sightedness may doom the widespread adoption of bitcoin before it even has a chance.

[Dan The Man]

You asked me if I do anything to gain money at the expense of others, I would only feel good about it if they gave it willingly to pay me for a service rendered or a product purchased, not if it has been accidentally lost by them due to a mistake they made or through some other form of serendipity. Such as occurs in a movement of the market that they could have not anticipated - they are not giving up their money willingly in this case.

That's exactly what happens on a speculative exchange though. At each point, both parties are agreeing that they want to trade dollars for Bitcoins. They ARE purchasing a product. You say that exchanges which later benefit one party at the expense of another are inherently bad. Are you also against insurance? It's a gamble. There you are purchasing a product, sometimes it works out to the benefit of the purchaser sometimes it doesn't. If I buy travel and insurance and then break my ankle on a trip, am I a bad person for profiting from the insurance company on the cost of my medical bill? True story. Suppose someone buys a sweater at a store when the exact same sweater can be had for 20% cheaper at another store. Is the store evil for profiting off their customer? After all the store is benefiting from the markup, and the customer is losing the price difference they could have had.

I think it is your attitude, that rubs so many people the wrong way. Why do you own Bitcoin and decide what is the "right" way to use it? Who are you to decide what it is intended to be, and what constitutes a misuse. Sure judge people on their ethics all you want, but don't claim it's for the benefit of the Bitcoin system.

I say there is no possible misuse of Bitcoin. Every use including non-use is the proper use. Let people do what they will with it. Most people here are very anti-authoritarian. Come in telling them what they should do and how thing should be and you will get a lot of hostility.

[BitMagic]

Again, I fully agree with you. In no respect am I in denial about the falling price of bitcoin. I have not invested any money, so I have no reason to be emotional. Bitcoin would function as a currency whether it's price was $1 or $100, I am simply frustrated by the short-sightedness of some of the investors here, because this short-sightedness may doom the widespread adoption of bitcoin before it even has a chance.

Ok, good. There are literally people here (many, many people) who will say "Speculators can go to hell," "Shorting the market is despicable," and "Rally! up up UP!" in the same breath.

And yet, I think you're still missing the point. You've said it right a number of times, but now you're getting confused again. It's not short term speculators that are the problem. It's big-scale short-term speculators. I know you know this, but keep these two separate. It's an important distinction.

[the joint]

Up 600% since the end of June.

I began trading 2 days after the Gox debacle.

[the joint]

Again, I fully agree with you. In no respect am I in denial about the falling price of bitcoin. I have not invested any money, so I have no reason to be emotional. Bitcoin would function as a currency whether it's price was $1 or $100, I am simply frustrated by the short-sightedness of some of the investors here, because this short-sightedness may doom the widespread adoption of bitcoin before it even has a chance.

Ok, good. There are literally people here (many, many people) who will say "Speculators can go to hell," "Shorting the market is despicable," and "Rally! up up UP!" in the same breath.

And yet, I think you're still missing the point. You've said it right a number of times, but now you're getting confused again. It's not short term speculators that are the problem. It's big-scale short-term speculators. I know you know this, but keep these two separate. It's an important distinction.

Speculators in this market are bigger risk takers than bulls.

[Vandroiy]

• This thread looks derailed
• I'm a self-proclaimed Libertarian and I'm proud of it. Now where's that graph with the damn communists...?
• Predicted the late days of the June bubble while luckily still holding some coins. I lost a little lately, but it was small in comparison

[Otoh]

down about 35% since starting in early August 2011


My Btc trading history in $s

First heard of Bitcoin June 2011
with the Wired piece about TSR

Bought 3 Aug 2011 - Britcoin

1 @ $10.33
1 @ $10.00
5 @ $9.84

Balance 7 BTC

Bought 6 Aug - Britcoin

50 @ $8.70
70 @ $8.22
8 @ $8.53

Balance 135 BTC

Bought 7 Aug - Britcoin

10 @ $6.58
13 @ $6.56

Balance 158 BTC

Bought 15 Aug - Mt.Gox

145.19 @ $11.20

Balance 303 BTC

Bought 16 Aug - TradeHill

0.525 @ $11.10 (free from referral commissions)

Balance 303 BTC

Sold 27 Aug - Mt.Gox

145 @ $8

Balance 158 BTC

Sold 27 Aug - Britcoin

145 @ $8.19

Balance 13 BTC

Bought 7 Sept - Mt.Gox

95 @ $6
55 @ $5.75
48.645 @ $5.50

Balance 211 BTC

Bought 7 Sept 2011 - Britcoin

95 @ $5.96
59 @ $5.64
48 @ $5.24

Balance 413 BTC

Bought 16 Sept 2011 - Britcoin

33.278 @ $4.74

Balance 446 BTC

Bought 25 Sept 2011 - Britcoin

33.278 @ $4.66

Balance 480 BTC

Bought 28 Sept 2011 - Intersango

10 @ $4.73 (free with profit from Bitcoinica)

Balance 490 BTC

Bought 8 Oct 2011 - Intersango

36.364 @ $4.28

Balance 526 BTC

Bought 8 Oct 2011 - Intersango

40 @ $3.89
31.6 @ $3.89

Balance 598 BTC

Bought 17 Oct 2011 - Intersango

50 @ $3.15
100 @ $1.57 (even though the price on MTG never fell below $2.26)

Balance 748 BTC

Bought 22 Oct 2011 - Intersango

253.93 @ $3.14

Total Balance 1,002 BTC

1,002 BTC @ $3.10 = $3,106

$3,106 + $25 cash (free profit from Bitcoinica) = $3,131

total invested so far £3,000 = $4,800

loss atm $1,669 ~ about 35%

it needs a price of $4.77 to break even