BTC broke all major support lines, and the worse is yet to come.

[Kemarit]

If we look at bitcoin journey from 2017 to 2018 it might be shocked, but look from 2009, this is not a strange thing where bitcoin falls after ATH in certain years. It is possible to recover in 2019, but indeed 2018 is a year that is quite heavy compared to 2017

This market goes on a cycle. No one expects the 'brutality' that we're going to encounter at the end of the year. Support lines are broken, sellers out number buyers, panic creates more panic and we don't know when this will be over. I personally thought that $5000 support will not be broken, I guess I'm wrong.

And I understand some losing hope. But if you're really in for the long haul, this is far the best opportunity for everyone to be a bagholder. If by chance it went below $4000 and nothing is buying, then I don't know, we don't need to wait further as those are good buying point.

[dunfida]

If we look at bitcoin journey from 2017 to 2018 it might be shocked, but look from 2009, this is not a strange thing where bitcoin falls after ATH in certain years. It is possible to recover in 2019, but indeed 2018 is a year that is quite heavy compared to 2017

This market goes on a cycle. No one expects the 'brutality' that we're going to encounter at the end of the year. Support lines are broken, sellers out number buyers, panic creates more panic and we don't know when this will be over. I personally thought that $5000 support will not be broken, I guess I'm wrong.

And I understand some losing hope. But if you're really in for the long haul, this is far the best opportunity for everyone to be a bagholder. If by chance it went below $4000 and nothing is buying, then I don't know, we don't need to wait further as those are good buying point.

As far as I remembered back into previous months were most people do speculate that 5400 would already be the strongest support yet we are tanking on the price of 6k+
up and possible decrease wont really go below on the support range but look at  we now.We did break the lowest support of 4400 and dropping even more lower. Next would be 3300
if dumping would continue then trust and confidence will surely be affected.

[Renaldi blackspadeteam]

a lot of fraud in the crypto business makes people bored to reinvest, and I think, people who are losing money in crypto trading and those who have been deceived in the ICO scam business have traumatized them, not to touch the crypto business anymore, so that asset prices on the market going down,

I am afraid if people are no longer interested in bitcoin and cause the price of Bitcoin to collapse violently, so what will the fate of Bitcoin be in the future.

[gentlemand]

As far as I remembered back into previous months were most people do speculate that 5400 would already be the strongest support yet we are tanking on the price of 6k+
up and possible decrease wont really go below on the support range but look at  we now.We did break the lowest support of 4400 and dropping even more lower. Next would be 3300
if dumping would continue then trust and confidence will surely be affected.

I've always been fascinated by the concept of 'support'. Where does it come from? Who decides? Why is it even a thing?

I've never believed in it. If there's gains to be made by pissing all over commonly accepted barriers then you can bet your bippy someone's going to do it.

It used to be taken as stone cold fact that Bitcoin never went below its previous all time high. Post late 2013 no one mentioned the possibility it would go below $266 yet it did by over $100. This is why I don't think there's any point in making strong assumptions about possible bottoms, especially months in advance which is what these support levels are.

[TravelMug]

As far as I remembered back into previous months were most people do speculate that 5400 would already be the strongest support yet we are tanking on the price of 6k+
up and possible decrease wont really go below on the support range but look at  we now.We did break the lowest support of 4400 and dropping even more lower. Next would be 3300
if dumping would continue then trust and confidence will surely be affected.

I've always been fascinated by the concept of 'support'. Where does it come from? Who decides? Why is it even a thing?

I've never believed in it. If there's gains to be made by pissing all over commonly accepted barriers then you can bet your bippy someone's going to do it.

It used to be taken as stone cold fact that Bitcoin never went below its previous all time high. Post late 2013 no one mentioned the possibility it would go below $266 yet it did by over $100. This is why I don't think there's any point in making strong assumptions about possible bottoms, especially months in advance which is what these support levels are.

Or we can even conclude that at this point in time, TA is not really applicable because the market is driven by market sentiments. I agree, we never thought that "X" and "Y" price could not be broken but look at where we are right now. All TA's are out of the window, except for those who are claiming that they have predicted this downtrend as early as 2018. So moral lesson here, TA might not work in the long run including support or resistance levels.

[Coin-1]

If nothing else it's a fine demonstration that TA is a crock of shit.

There have been plenty of people calling for sub 3 grand lows which is fair enough. I did not see one single example of a prediction for this particular brutality.

I totally agree with you. I have always said that technical analysis is practically useless for crypto exchange markets. The actions of price manipulators are unpredictable.

It used to be taken as stone cold fact that Bitcoin never went below its previous all time high. Post late 2013 no one mentioned the possibility it would go below $266 yet it did by over $100. This is why I don't think there's any point in making strong assumptions about possible bottoms, especially months in advance which is what these support levels are.

I guess that the Bitcoin miners already collected too many coins and they decided to sell BTC in order to pay for electricity or reimburse other expenses.

It also does matter that the Bitcoin inflation is still high. Every day the miners receive about 1800 new BTC coins. To only stabilize the price, it is needed to buy $4400 * 1800 = about $8 millions each day. In fact, the mining industry is centralized in China by several mining pools. It goes without saying, they can crash crypto exchange markets by simultaneously selling a huge amount of coins.

[Wayan_Pedjeng]

The demand is not there and it seems like there is an over-supply of the coins. The situation will only improve if the big players resume their purchases. And that looks unlikely for the next 1-2 years.

[Arthurian60]

A lot of expectations were put on bitcoin hitting 20k+ this year ending. It only took bitcoin few weeks to brrsk all major support Lines holding it for months. There are those who said we must see 3k before something good will happen.  With all indications, it shows that the price of BTC is heading to 3k.

[mikeywith]

24/11/2018  9:55 pm (GMT)
UPDATE : BTC is down about 30% from the time I posted this, some moon boys probably did not like what i said, some said TA is B.S . but if even 1 person took my analysis seriously and benefited from this i am glad enough.

currently btc is trading at  3940$ on binance .

we will see some relief from here, but most likely only a bear flag that will only bring another dip.

my strategy is to buy into this market slowly as the bull run could happen any time, but major buys will be around 2900-3100$ .  i might increase my buying postion at 3500$ area if i see some good price action.


as i mentioned in one of the comments, the only way for BTC to really be in a bull market is with a daily close above 7500$ with some huge volume, aside from that any surge is nothing but a good chance to short.

[romaleshc]

About 1 month recently, the cryptocurrency market has been making my surprise. The fluctuating of the exchange rate and the sharp decrease is always. BTC has broken all about support zone, and I think it will continue to decrease in the next day because of the panic sell of the investors.

[1Referee]

my strategy is to buy into this market slowly as the bull run could happen any time, but major buys will be around 2900-3100$ .  i might increase my buying postion at 3500$ area if i see some good price action.

It would be hilarious if the $3000 level (which most people have so much confidence in) turns out to be nothing but a wall of paper sellers easily burn through with their fierce selling pressure.

Don't forget that plenty of stop loss orders will be lined up just under or over $2900 which might tempt whales to troll the market even further by triggering these orders. It pays off to set up buy orders well below that level just in case. If they are triggered, you at least made sure to have bought coins well below that support level you probably wouldn't be able to buy at by doing it manually.

[Sawadekub]

Thanks for the analysis. Everything is very sensibly described. I anticipate a similar situation, but still hoped for a rebound. Now I take note of the new information.

For those who believe that charts and technical analysis is nonsense, I want to ask: What are you guided by when doing price movement analysis?

I think that I can’t wait for an answer, so I just want to write. Only technical analysis and charts can give a real idea of ​​the market situation and price movement. Without them, you generally will not have any idea about the possible movement of prices.

[mikeywith]

my strategy is to buy into this market slowly as the bull run could happen any time, but major buys will be around 2900-3100$ .  i might increase my buying postion at 3500$ area if i see some good price action.

It would be hilarious if the $3000 level (which most people have so much confidence in) turns out to be nothing but a wall of paper sellers easily burn through with their fierce selling pressure.

Don't forget that plenty of stop loss orders will be lined up just under or over $2900 which might tempt whales to troll the market even further by triggering these orders. It pays off to set up buy orders well below that level just in case. If they are triggered, you at least made sure to have bought coins well below that support level you probably wouldn't be able to buy at by doing it manually.

if that level does not hold, you simply get out of the market and wait for the next support at 1800$, also what you mentioned is right, i assume a wise man won't go balls deep at any level,i will always keep fiat just in case. but one thing for sure is the SL hunting, i don't usually set a SL, i wait for a candle close of 4H at least. i literately rode every way up of the prev large triangle. i knew for sure i would sell the moment it breaks, but i never sat a SL, i waited for a candle to close and it always closed above the trend line so i was never worried, the only time i did exist was the time i published this topic. it was a huge candle closed below support, and it was a very clear sign for more dip. so my advice is to always wait for a candle close to avoid most of the manipulation.

Thanks for the analysis. Everything is very sensibly described. I anticipate a similar situation, but still hoped for a rebound. Now I take note of the new information.

For those who believe that charts and technical analysis is nonsense, I want to ask: What are you guided by when doing price movement analysis?

I think that I can’t wait for an answer, so I just want to write. Only technical analysis and charts can give a real idea of ​​the market situation and price movement. Without them, you generally will not have any idea about the possible movement of prices.

i can answer for them . those people do not look at the charts , they buy BTC whenever they feel like it and whenever they have the cash, and keep waiting for ATH, the moon boys and the hodlers will sell at 20k this is one thing for sure, but you know what's going to happen later? btc will go to 40k only then they will decide to buy, by then we going to sell at 40k and wait for them to give it back at 20k.

[el kaka22]

well indeed the market does what it wants to do, it does not really react to charts, but charts react to price.  we as TA people in most cases see the same chart and think that same thoughts, when price broke the trend line bottom which was about 5900$ i personally sold out, and obviously i was not alone in this as my whole worth of btc is not even 0.00000000000000001% of the market cap. but it does accumulate with other traders. causes the panic and price dips.

fundamentals are of course way stronger than Technical, if tomorrow satoshi comes out and prove himself and say BTC is scam, no support and no TA will hold btc from going to 0. on the other hand if we get ETF approved, prices will care less about any Resistance on the chart and will shot to surpass ATH.

I really do not know the beef you guys have with TA, but TA is never a croc of shit!! Take it or leave it, once you understand the volatility of the market and you know what you are doing, the benefit of TA is to guide you and not to tell you exactly what will take place in the future.

Maybe I should start with the economical term of TA;

"Technical analysis is a trading discipline employed to evaluate investments and identify trading opportunities by analyzing statistical trends gathered from trading activity, such as price movement and volume."

It is just an analysis bro and to identify trading opportunities, it is not a price prediction or some voodoo shit. This is basically also one of the reasons why a lot of newbies as well approach the market without thinking of using stop loss management. We are all retail traders, trying to feed off the whales manipulation, take it or leave it, TA is just there to let us know what we need to know about the market.

[SalkoSan]

"It is just an analysis bro and to identify trading opportunities, it is not a price prediction or some voodoo shit. This is basically also one of the reasons why a lot of newbies as well approach the market without thinking of using stop loss management. We are all retail traders, trying to feed off the whales manipulation, take it or leave it, TA is just there to let us know what we need to know about the market."

This.

I am a newbie at trading and i totally agree with what he said...... and in my opinion, BTC falling this "low" is a good thing...... there will be a buying point or might I say a re-buying entry point for mass people that will trigger .....well, something. But that just my opinion. ETH is kind of getting there.

Cheers to all, much love, stay safe and don't hate my first comment.

[macstrong12]

Today it broke 4000$ , now struggling to rise above it but I don't think it can , next support is around 3800$ , Let's hope it doesn't break that or it would go to 3000$ , it all happened in one week from 6300$ to 3800$ , hows that possible?!

[Dondont]

A few  days ago i was still bullish on bitcoin as it stayed strong above major support  trend

Doesn't the fact that bitcoin went below these "support lines" argue against the validity of using TA to trade?  I'm a long-time skeptic of technical analysis, and this just shows me that the market does what it wants with no regard to these fancy voodoo TA techniques and terms.

we see new shit coins every day, most which has no purpose, many scam projects. and recently the hash-war of BCH is one simple example of why the world still think crypto is a risky and easily manipulated market.

You got that right, although I'd argue that "the world" is hardly even aware that there are any cryptocurrencies other than bitcoin.  It's a very small population of people who are even aware of these shitcoins, ICO scams, and now this hash war thing.  Shitcoins are destined to crash to zero--or at least most of them are, and I don't need TA to verify that for me.  One of these days people are going to wake up and realize that no merchant is ever going to accept them and there's no practical use for them, not even as a store of value because of the extreme volatility.

Although shitcoin always has a bad impact and only under 1% of the total has a positive value (can be applied in daily activities) but indeed the most influential is this hash war. They always fuss about selfishness, arrogance and their belief that with this hardfork, they are still confident that they can bring crypto forward more advanced, but the impact that has occurred to date is 180 degrees.
What's your opinion about those thing ?

[mikeywith]

Today it broke 4000$ , now struggling to rise above it but I don't think it can , next support is around 3800$ , Let's hope it doesn't break that or it would go to 3000$ , it all happened in one week from 6300$ to 3800$ , hows that possible?!

the bears are losing moment, a bullish divergence is starting to show on the charts, but the volume is still low, and I do not think this is the beginning for the rally but rather a correction, i will be looking for  short signals. i could be wrong that's one thing for sure, but what it makes more sense to short the market now,at this point we will see many bull traps, a good 5-15% increase , people start thinking this is it, they go all in ,  and get liquidated.

unless you are buying for the long term, then it's stupid to long now. but if you are just trying to hunt for bottom then it makes sence to buy every dip with small positions, so that your average buying price will be reasonable.but if you are a day trader, then you will be set for bull traps, the low 4k will most likely be the new resistance for now, hard to break to the up side, of course when i say break i mean at least a 4hr candle close and not a 1 or 5 mins candles.

but overall , the bulls are coming back, i do think the 3500 support is starting to become strong but it might not sustain, am still looking for 2.9-3.1k . but i will buy again at 3.4k to 3.6k if the i see similar rejection to the last one.

[Easzjohn]

It seems as if TA is in valid at this moment.  Crypto is just moving in a direction we all cant understand at the moment.  Hopefully after this bearish season comes the but run

[mikeywith]

if you are a day trader , or learning how to trade i suggest you give this a look > http://www.learntotradethemarket.com/price-action-trading-forex?gclid=EAIaIQobChMI6rOkxrXw3gIVZ7vtCh33Rww1EAAYASAAEgLn4_D_BwE


the easiest and the best strategy is the simplest one. i tried every indicator and other methods, but to me, the basic support/resistance lines with the basic price action is the most accurate. as nothing is 100% correct all the time, but if used right, you will most likely succeed.

this not a financial advice what so ever, trade at your own risk.