Looking at BTC-USD on the weekly chart i came to see yet another potentially worse scenario ahead !
However there is some GOOD news here!
the 2900-3600 is rather a very strong support zone as seems to be on the weekly chart.
So there is a good chance that this may be the end of the bear trend,even though the 2900$ seems to be the most reliable bottom within this green support zone but anything from TOP to BOTTOM of this zone is actually a good support on the weekly trend. but the good news are unlikely to play out ! sadly !
The bad news is !, there is almost no sort of any support beneath this 2900$-3600$.
The nearest support area that we can count on would be
950$ to 1350$ . WTF
There is however a minor support at 1900$ but that support was only tested once as a part of a small correction during the last bull run in July 2017.
now some might argue and say I am crazy to even think that we can actually go to prices this low, but really this is the disadvantage of a bull run that did not stop to make mark any support on it's way. easy come easy go !
in this topic
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5071613.msg48030883#msg48030883i mentioned about the importance of breaking the 5800-6000 levels , and to most traders it was a clear sign of going short as there was no sign of support for at least 30% down the way. and
BTC did actually drop 36% from there.
again breaking the 2900$ support could easily do another -35% or in fact well over -50% should the weak support at 1900$ fail to hold ( very likely ) and take us straight to 950$-1350$.
so long story short, the bulls need to defend this green support area as this will be their last resort before another collapse in price, which indeed won't be over night, and could take months to actually get there.
the bright side however from a TA point of view, that the easier it comes the easier it goes.,with these fast dips, we are creating less resistance points on the way back up ( in the future). the sharp fall from 5800 to 3600 created no serious resistance, so it won't be much of a surprise to see a single candle shoot from 4k to 5.5k which is unlikely of course giving the nature of the current bear trend.
now this is from a technical point of view.
Taking the fundamental part of it, it does not look less miserable.
if you have to name a working business that uses bitcoin and is generating any sort of considerable income, then i could be wrong. aside from Exchanges and Mining Hardware manufacturers the use case of Bitcoin is still very limited and way far from deserving a market of 800 billion $. taking the whole crypto market in the picture, what has any crypto currency done to the world yet ? 99% of it is either a scam coin or nothing but a copy-paste token with a better looking whitepaper.
to me , the fundamental aspect is less important, because what took btc to 20k was not the fundamentals but rather the technical, it was the greed, people look at the chart to see an insanely rising trend, kept jumping on to make money , rising the price and that's all about it.
now the way I look at the bigger picture of any new market is that, the rich / the whales or whatever you name them have to make the most of it. there is noway they will let all the geeks who out of passion bought thousands of BTCs for almost no price to become millionaires just like that. despite the vision of bitcoin, it will never set people free the way many people think. you need to suffer to be set free, it won't be as easy as you think it is. the whales need to take every single
BTC they can from you before they can approve the market and allow it grow into a trillion $ market.
as long as we still call 3k to be bottom then it most likely won't be, since we are physiologically prepared for this point, so many of us are not panicking and still holding to our coins, they will still try to make it look worse, put you in a position where you really start to think BTC is going to 0, once that happen then moon comes.
now again this all could be wrong, maybe at this price the majority of the holders are not willing to sell anymore and the whales do not have a magic stick to force it , and if that's the case then we could moon up from here. but really what are the odds?
to me i take TA very seriously,its been working just fine for me, i do not sit there desperately waiting for moon when the price is collapsing , I do not cash out any profit from trading unless i need to , the plan is to get more BTCs by selling every possible chance and buying at a lower price. so this is no FUD what so ever. if you are a trader, then you might need to start thinking of the possible scenarios ahead, be ready to act accordingly , try to get as much
BTC as you can, so that in 5 years time you can quite your boring job and live free.
this bear scenario only ends with a daily candle closing above at least 7500$ , anything aside from that will be nothing but bull traps for the poor to fall in. remember there will always be good chances to go low. if you think the price is still going down and you are afraid to miss the bottom entry then you will be rekt. however if you are accumulating bitcoin only to sell it 5-10 years from now then you should not worry about 50% decline because it is only minor for long term.
This is not a financial advice what so ever, do whatever the fudge you want to do with your own money.
and , Good luck !
Interesting take on the current market conditions.
Personally, I would disagree that the only support that is below the $3k level is at the three figure mark. There would just be too much demand to accumulate and swoop up bitcoins at such cheap prices at that stage for prices to continue dropping below that. There will also be institutional demand, which we haven't seen in the past bear markets.
But I do think that prices are going to go further down from this point, although I also believe that we're fairly close to what the price floor should be at. Dollar cost averaging is the way to go at this point.
